Tokyo 2021 Olympic risks

By Myriam Lynch | Illustrations by Felisha Wang | Layout by Alyssa Merwise

When the Olympic Games were created around 3000 years ago in Greece, their purpose was to celebrate and honor the gods. However, when the Olympics were revived in 1892 by Baron Pierre de Coubertin and the first modern games were held in Athens in 1896, their purpose shifted. Under the direction of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the Games became an opportunity for countries to compete amicably through sports. The five interlocking circles of the official flag, with each circle representing one of the five continents, depicts a world united by a shared value of athleticism. Politics have never completely taken a back seat at the Olympics, however. The highly sought privilege of hosting the games is often the result of a geopolitical calculus that only the IOC understands. Those kinds of calculations are more than ever at the fore of the next Summer Olympics, to be held in Tokyo in July 2021. One year behind schedule, the Tokyo Games hope to be remembered as the first Games to be held successfully and safely in the midst of a global pandemic.

A year ago, it seemed impossible for Japan or any country to host the Olympic Games, even though Japan was already nearing the finish line in its preparations. When I visited Tokyo, in January 2020, construction sites and billboards with the Olympic flag were a constant reminder of the upcoming summer games. In fact, Japan waited as long as it possibly could - precisely two days before the Olympic torch was set to leave Fukushima on its way to Tokyo - to announce the Games’ cancellation. Covid-19 seemed to have the entire world in its iron grip, and even the Olympics would not resist. One year later, Japan is insisting on holding the Games, even though the country has a low vaccination rate and has only recently recovered from the latest Covid-19 state of emergency declared in January. The world may be watching the progression of the Olympic torch across Japan with anticipation, but the potential health risks of hosting the Olympics in a pandemic are in themselves significant enough to warrant the Games’ cancellation.

Hosting the Olympics during a pandemic poses health risks that cannot be underestimated. One expert cited by Conde Nast called the decision to press forward with the Games a “matter of life and death” and argued that, notwithstanding the years of training and sacrifices athletes make to compete in the Olympics once every four years, the Games are “not an essential service to the world.” Athletes themselves have voiced

concerns about the IOC’s announced health protocols. While teams will only be able to arrive at their accommodations in the Olympic Village five days before their competition and must leave within 48 hours of the end of competition, vaccinations are not required for athletes. Amid fears that new strains of the virus may be brought by teams from around the world, the possibility of another wave is particularly worrying for those living around the sprawling complex, in central Tokyo. Although until now Japan has dealt with the pandemic better than many other countries, with an estimated 496,000 total cases, as of April 2020, only 1% of the Japanese population has been vaccinated. This slow rollout is the result of both cautious policy—Japan has only approved the Pfizer vaccine for use—and a wary population. According to a poll conducted in January of 2021 by the Tokyo Broadcasting System, 80% of people in Japan believe the Olympics should/will be canceled or postponed.

As great as the health risks are, the economic and political consequences of cancelling the Games weigh on the minds of the country’s leaders. The global economic crisis caused by the pandemic has hit Japan particularly hard. According to the BBC, Japan’s economy shrank by 4.8% in 2020, the first time Japan’s economy has contracted since 2009. Moreover, the slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout in the country (0.46 doses per 100 people as of March 23, according to Our World in Data), may negatively

affect the ability of the Japanese economy to recover from the impending recession. Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research, expects “a repeating cycle of coronavirus infections spreading and being contained” in 2021, meaning that “consumption is not likely to recover at the expected pace,” he told the BBC. Meanwhile, due to the one year delay in holding the Olympics, the overall cost to Japan of hosting the Games in 2021 has increased by $2.8 billion; the full price tag is now estimated at $15.4 billion.

Perhaps the biggest benefit the Olympics can bring to a city is in the form of tourism revenue. The last Summer Olympics in Brazil, brought together 10,500 athletes, 500,000 foreign tourists, and tens of thousands of coaches, judges, officials, VIPs, sponsors, media and broadcasters. However, in the age of Covid-19, increased tourism risks setting off a major superspreader event. In order to minimize that potentiality, the Games will be held without live audiences, that is to say, without tourists. In other words, for all of Japan’s investment in the Games, the country and particularly Tokyo, will reap greatly reduced economic benefits for the privilege of playing host.

Despite the challenges facing the Games, the 2020 Summer Olympics hold a special significance for Japan. These Olympics, also known as the “Recovery Games” in Japan, have been eagerly anticipated as an opportunity to display Japan’s recovery from the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster, especially on the tragedy’s 10th anniversary. The torch relay that began in March 2021 deliberately started in a still scarred Fukushima prefecture as a symbol of resilience. The 2020 Olympics are a matter of national pride. The Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has billed the Games as “proof of human victory against the pandemic,” according to the Associated Press. Passing on the opportunity to host the Olympics would mean a lost opportunity until 2032 (the next Games up for bidding), and a lost chance at economic recovery.

But perhaps the most compelling reason for hosting the 2020 Olympics comes from an issue with even greater optics; if they are held, these Games will forever go down in history as the first Olympics to take place during or immediately after the Covid-19 pandemic. If Japan were to cancel, it would cede that historic distinction to the next Olympics, the Winter Games of 2022, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. This move could be interpreted in Japan as a symbolic defeat by the country’s primary military rival in the region. On the other hand, as the first country to host the Games during the pandemic, Japan hopes to be able to burnish its image on the international stage, as a world leader during a tense global climate. The cost of letting that unparalleled opportunity slip by may be a price too high for Japan, and the ultimate price tag of these fraught Olympic Games.

If the 2020 Olympics do finally take place this summer, the Covid-19 pandemic will shape it undoubtedly into an Olympics we have never before quite seen or experienced. While sports and tourism are the usual drivers of the Games, in 2021, soft power may hold greater symbolic weight. The 2020 Games are set to be a contest to demonstrate that this herculean event that many deem impossible and some may even consider reckless, is in fact possible. Perhaps this year, the Olympic torch might even shine as the light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel.