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I S S UE F IVE . DECE M BE R 20 15
HIGHER VIEW 商道
#05
CHINA’S INNOVATION CHALLENGE █
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Predictions for Year of the Monkey Auditing the Australia-China Relationship Will China’s Disruptors eat your lunch?
创新驱动增长: 中国经济路在何方? 猴年前景展望 细察澳中关系 中国的产业颠覆者
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最近，关于中国GDP增速下降的讨论此起彼伏，但是众说纷纭之 下，中国的消费者似乎不为所动，消费的脚步无法阻挡。根据澳大 利亚统计局九月份的数据来看，目前中国已经首次取代新西兰成为 澳大利亚最大的游客来源国。对于澳大利亚经济来说这是佳音，对 于我们东航而言自然也是喜讯！ 我们正不遗余力地加强两国之间的联系。澳洲航空与东方航空公 司已签署达成一项新的航班代码共享协议，意味着今后中国游客从 中国前往霍巴特将更加便捷，无需中途转机，实现“一票到底”。 我们还与Ulimosines签署了豪华大巴服务协议，自2015年11月 20日起为悉尼/墨尔本往返中国的企业商务舱乘客提供免费的地面接 送服务。 本期《商道》中，我们探讨了中国经济日新月异之时，创新领域 应如何与时俱进。 希望你能喜欢本期文章，并祝圣诞快乐，新年幸福！
随着中国经济的发展，创新必将日益成为驱动中国年度GDP增长 的主要因素。本期《商道》将以中国新兴领域的巨大机遇为焦点， 有些领域已经取得了重大的成功。 本期《商道》付印之际，传来人民币将在2016年10月成为国际货 币基金组织SDR（特别提款权）的一揽子货币之一的好消息。这无 疑是对中国国家央行充满信心所投的重要一票，更彰显中国持续推 进的经济改革及其在全球经济中日益重要的地位。 近期的另一条大新闻是澳大利亚政府主办的澳大利亚北部投资论 坛为该区域播下了大力发展的种子。该地区将在国际资本的帮助下， 开启澳大利亚北部地区的巨大潜力。 我们也对中澳关系中的不少领域进行深入分析，并解读中国未来 几十年将会发生的引人思考的人口结构变化。 今年是中澳关系大有作为的一年。我们期待明年会更好。最后祝 您和您的家人圣诞快乐，新年顺意！
Welcome from China Eastern Airlines
Welcome from the CCCA
There has been a lot of discussion recently about China’s slowing GDP growth, but beyond the headlines Chinese consumers, it seems, are unstoppable. China is now the single largest source of tourists to Australia, replacing New Zealand for the first time according to September figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For our part, we’re doing our best to deepen country-to-country links. A new code-sharing arrangement between Qantas and China Eastern will allow Chinese travellers to travel from China to Hobart on one ticket. We’ve also signed up limousine service Ulimosines to provide complementary ground transfers to our corporate business class passengers travelling in between Sydney/Melbourne and China from 20th Nov 2015. We hope you enjoy the articles in this edition of Higher View Business, which look at topics ranging from China’s innovation challenge to predictions for the economy next year. We wish you a happy Christmas and a bright new year!
As China’s economy evolves, innovation will inevitably form a rising part of China’s annual GDP growth. In this edition of Higher View Business we look at China’s huge opportunities in this area, with some significant achievements already. This edition goes to print on the back of news that the Chinese Yuan will be added to the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark SDR currency basket in October 2016. This is a major vote of confidence in China’s central bank, as well as ongoing economic reforms and its growing role in the global economy. In other news the Australian government’s recent Northern Australia Investment Forum sowed the proverbial seeds for unlocking Northern Australia’s great potential, with the help of international capital. We also take an in-depth look at the Australia-China relationship, and also the fascinating demographic changes that will take place in China in the coming decades. It’s been a big year for Australia-China relations. Let’s hope next year is even better. We wish you and your family a happy Christmas and a successful new year.
Brisbane 布里斯班 → Shanghai 上海
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商道
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内容概要
CONTENTS 内容概要 IN THIS ISSUE 36
COVER STORY 封面故事
CHINA’S INNOVATION CHALLENGE 中国在创新领域的挑战
The events of 2015 have shown that China is passing through a challenging transition: the labor-force expansion and surging investment that propelled three decades of growth are now weakening. This is a natural stage in the country’s economic development. Yet it raises questions such as how drastically the expansion of GDP will slow down and whether the country can tap new sources of growth. New research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) suggests that to realise consensus growth forecasts—5.5 to 6.5 percent a year—during the coming decade, China must generate two to three percentage points of annual GDP growth through innovation, broadly defined. If it does, innovation could contribute much of the US$3 trillion to $5 trillion a year to GDP by 2025. McKinsey’s analysis suggests that this transformation is possible, though not inevitable. 2015年形势表明中国正在经历一个极具挑战性的过渡： 推动中国经济三十年增长的劳动力扩张和投资激增因素正 在减弱。这是国家经济发展的必然阶段。但是，它也提出 了许多问题：GDP增长会降幅几何？国家又是否能培育新 的经济增长点呢？ 麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）一项新的研究认为：未来十 年中国要实现5.5%至6.5%这个普遍认同的年度增长率预 测，则必须通过(广义而言的)创新实现其中2至3个百分点 的GDP增长。这样的话，到2025年创新将为中国经济作出 每年3至5万亿的贡献。中国也将由吸收并改良国际先进技 术和知识的“汲取创新”国家演变为全球创新领军人物。 麦肯锡的分析认为这种转型有可能但并非理所当然。
商道
H I G H E R V I EW BUSINESS | 9
CONTENTS
内容概要
48
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48 CHINA’S DISRUPTORS 中国的产业颠覆者
30 GREAT NORTHERN LAND 神奇的澳北大地
China’s economic scale and dynamic business environment make it the main contender with the United States to produce a rival to Google, Facebook or Twitter. Veteran China hand Edward Tse looks at some of the key milestones China’s home-grown e-commerce giants have passed, and how they will shape global consumer trends.
中国的经济实力及其生机勃勃 的商业环境令中国市场有能力 培植与美国一争高下，与谷 歌、脸书、推特等公司分庭抗 礼的竞争强手。资深中国通谢 祖墀回顾中国本土的电商巨无 霸里程碑式的重大成就，并 探讨为何他们可能引领全球消 费者大趋势的潜力。
Northern Australia is a vast region that stretches from Broome in the west to Cairns in the east. It is a part of Australia that holds much economic promise and potential but for decades has been underutilised due to a lack of capital. Andrew Robb, Australia’s Minister for Trade and Investment, describes the region’s future path of development.
REGULARS 固定栏目
OPINION 洞见
FEATURES 专题报道
26 ARE YOU WECHATTING?
18 THE ANCIENT CHINESE WEAPON AGAINST MALARIA
12 CONTRIBUTORS 投稿人
澳大利亚北部地区幅员辽阔，从西部的布隆延伸到东岸的凯恩斯，这片蕴藏 全澳最具经济前景的广袤土地，由于资金的短缺其潜力一直未获充分开发。 澳大利亚联邦政府贸易和投资部长安德鲁•罗布展望该区域未来发展和繁荣 之路。
今天你微信了吗? There’s a question that hangs in the air over every dinner party in Shanghai right now. It could be asked straight away or it might take an hour before someone lobs it across the table but it’s there. What’s your WeChat strategy? Everyone has one and it’s not hard to see why.
15 NEWS 新闻 32 GLOBAL SNAPSHOT 全球快递
57 LEARNING CURVE 学习曲线
87 HIGHER LIFE 气派生活
94
现在上海几乎所有的宴会场上都会涉及 这样一个问题——可能开门见山，也可 能“千呼万唤始出来”，但是，一定会 出现。那就是：你的微信策略如何？大 家都爱用微信，理由很简单。
64 NEW MARKETS, NEW MINISTERS…AND MONKEYS 新市场，新部长…还有猴年新岁 Australia and China have laid the foundations of a long-lasting relationship, but the incoming Year of the Monkey brings some exciting developments which will inject energy and dynamism, write David Thomas and Katya Dobinson from Think Global Consulting.
96 10 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
78 PROPERTY PERKS AND PITFALLS
中国古代对抗疟疾的利器 Tu Youyou was tasked with finding a cure for malaria by Mao Zedong in 1969. Four decades later, her discoveries help save more than 100,000 lives every year in Africa, and she has won the highest honour in medicine, the Nobel Prize.
澳洲地产投资的机会与风险 Are Australian assets in your current or planned investment strategy? If so you need to be across changes in the Australian foreign investment rules. Hunt & Hunt partner Tony Raunic outlines how they will affect you.
1969年，屠呦呦受毛泽东委派寻找治疗 疟疾的办法。四十多年后，仅在非洲， 她的发现就能每年挽救十万余条生命。 她也因此与同为寄生虫斗士的爱尔兰科 学家坎贝尔和日本的大村智共同被授予 医学界最高荣誉——诺贝尔奖。
澳大利亚资产是否是您当前或未来投资 策略中的目标？如果是的话，您需要了 解澳大利亚外商投资规定中一些渐行渐 近的变化。HUNT & HUNT律师事务所合 伙人TONY RAUNIC为你介绍相应变化及 其对你的影响。
58 AUDITING THE AUSTRALIACHINA RELATIONSHIP
82 CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE
事实是澳大利亚与中国在诸多方面都保 持着一种稳固而富有成果的关系。在本 篇关于细察澳中两国关系的文章中，来 自澳中关系研究院的THOMAS BOAK将 与我们探讨两国关系当中尚有改进余地 的地方。
在这篇摘自CLINT LAURENT的新书《中 国人口展望》精彩内容节选中, 我们探讨 了人口老龄化、城市人口流动以及家庭 规模变小等一系列重大趋势如何导致中 国某些市场的日益收缩，但同时又为其 它领域创造出巨大商机。
中国人口展望 In this fascinating excerpt from Clint Laurent’s new book China’s Demographic Future, we look at how mega-trends like China’s ageing population, urban migration and shrinking household sizes are whittling away some markets while creating enormous opportunities 媒体在报道澳中两国关系时经常会夸大 其词，但在这些林林总总的标题之外， in others.
细察澳中关系 Beyond the headlines Australia and China have a solid and productive relationship. In this audit of the Australia-China relationship, Thomas Boak from the Australia-China Relations Institute looks at where there is still room for improvement.
中澳已经打下长远关系的良好根基， Think Global Consulting公司Katya Dobinson和David Thomas为你详细 阐述即将到来的猴年将迎来更多振奋人 心的进展，为两国关系注入新动力， 新活力。
商道
MGSM MBA in Top 50 The Economist - ‘Which MBA? 2014’ ranked MGSM MBA #49 globally, #5 in Asia.
“ I chose MGSM because of its strong international reputation and its emphasis on teaching the best global business practices.” MGSM Alumnus James Osmund, Director – Digital Products Fox International Channels
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CONTRIBUTORS
投稿人
1.
第五期 Issue 05 致力推动中澳友好关 系的重要人物，也跟 我们一起创建这一期 的《商道》。
2.
1. PROF. ANNIE BLIGH 安妮·布莱教授
Meet the minds helping to shape China-Australia relations – and who also helped shape this issue of Higher View Business
Annie is Professor of Medicinal Plant Science at the University of Westminster. Since 2006 she has been a Visiting Professor at the Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Her research has evolved from focusing on synthetic drug discovery to the investigation of natural products. 安妮·布莱是威斯敏斯特大学 （University of Westminster）药用植物 学教授，自2006年开始担任上海中医药大 学客座教授。其研究领域包括合成药物的 研发以及天然药品的调研，尤其关注传统 中草药材研究。
2. MICHEL BREKELMANS 贝明宇
Michel is a Partner at L.E.K. and Managing Director and co-head of L.E.K.’s China practice based in Shanghai since 2006. He has more than 18 years of experience in strategy consulting, nine of which have been spent in Asia. 贝明宇是艾意凯咨询公司（L.E.K.）合 伙人，自2006年开始担任艾意凯中国区 （上海分公司）常务董事兼联席主管。贝
University of New South Wales, having written his thesis on the role of China in Australia’s grand strategy. 托马斯·博克是悉尼科技大学“澳大 利亚——中国关系研究院”研究人员，
If you’d like to contribute an article to Higher View Business, please get in touch with us via: jim@citrusmedia.com.au
Thomas is a Researcher at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. He has recently completed a Bachelor of International Studies (Hons) at the
8.
6. DR CLINT. R LAURENT 克林特·洛朗博士
国际研究方向荣誉学士学位。
Dr Clint. R Laurent is the Managing Director of Global Demographics Ltd, which he founded in 1996. The company provides detailed forecasts of the demographic and socio economic profile of 75 countries, as well as India by Province and China by Province as well as all 2,278 counties/cities.
4. WAI-YEE CHEN 陈惠仪
Wai-Yee is an investment author and a Derivatives Specialist Adviser. Qualified as a CPA, Wai-Yee holds degrees in Accounting and a Masters of Applied Finance. With two decades of investment experience, she regularly appears on radio and TV networks such as CNBC and SKY Business and the Australian Financial Review. 陈惠仪是衍生工具投资撰稿人及专家
克林特·洛朗博士是全球统计公司 （Global Demographics Ltd）常务董 事。公司诞生于1996年，致力于提供全 球范围内75个国家的人口统计与社会经 济详细预测，并对印度各省及中国各省 和2278个县/市进行预测。
顾问，拥有注册会计师资格、会计学士 学位及应用金融学硕士学位。陈惠仪有
7. HUW MCKAY
着二十多年的投资经验，经常受邀参加
修·马凯
电台、电视及网络栏目并时有作品发表，
Huw McKay, Senior International economist at Westpac, is one of Australia’s leading thinkers on the Asian region. His key research reports include the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey and the China Resources Quarterly, a research joint venture between Westpac and the Australian government.
如：CNBC、SKY
Business电台及《澳
大利亚金融评论报》等。
Katya is engaged with and passionate about the Australia-China relationship. As Business Manager at Think Global Consulting, Katya manages a wide range of responsibilities including conducting research and managing clients, projects and marketing.
9.
10.
《商道》欢迎投稿， 感兴趣者请发邮件至 jim@citrusmedia.com.au
与我们联系。
12 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
管理、项目执行及市场营销等事务。
学（University of New South Wales）
5. KATYA DOBINSON
3. THOMAS BOAK
Think Global Consulting咨询公司的商 业经理，杜凯琳全面负责研究开展、客户
亚大战略中的作用，获得新南威尔士大
杜凯琳 托马斯·博克
杜凯琳是澳大利亚青年一代从事且热 衷于澳中关系的先锋领军人物。作为
最近完成其论文——关于中国在澳大利
明宇在策略咨询领域有18年的丰富经验， 包括9年亚洲工作经历。
3.
商道
修 · 马 凯 为 西 太 平 洋 银 行 （Westpac）高级国际经济师，也是澳 大利亚有关亚洲区域问题的领军人物。其 主要研究报告包括：西太平洋银行
11.
CONTRIBUTORS
投稿人
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5.
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7.
Higher View Business 商道 Issue 05 Strategic Advisor 战略顾问
Jingmin Qian
Editor 编辑 Ben Hurley
Staff Writers 特约撰稿人
Crystal Wong, Constantina Pilatos
10. ERIK ROTH
院中国研究小组有关全球及中国相关主题
有关中国这一巨大新兴市场的最佳报
罗瑞麟
的领导工作。
告——“中国消费者信心调研”以及西太
Erik is a leader in McKinsey’s Strategy Practice in Asia and directs the company’s work in innovation globally. He is one of the firm’s foremost experts on matters related to innovation and its critical components.
（Westpac）与国际市场新闻社（MNI）
平洋银行与澳大利亚政府的联合研究项 目——《中国资源季刊》。
8. JONATHAN WOETZEL 华强森
Jonathan is a director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office and a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing. Based in Shanghai for more than 15 years, he works with Chinese businesses to develop strategies, organisations and operations for global growth. 华强森是麦肯锡上海分公司资深董事 及北京大学光华管理学院教授。华强森任 职上海达15年以上，主要就全球发展战 略、组织与运营为中国企业服务，并与 有关当局在能源、可持续发展和经济发 展等领域进行合作。
13. EDWARD TSE 谢祖墀
罗瑞麟是麦肯锡公司亚洲区“策略实 务研究小组”领导，负责公司的全球创新 领域的业务。罗瑞麟是公司改革创新及 其有关重要方面的资深专家。
11. TONY RAUNIC
Edward Tse is the founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy consulting firm with roots in China. As well as helping hundreds of companies—both inside and outside China—develop and apply their strategies, he has also worked with the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Chinese government.
托尼·罗尼奇
谢祖墀是立足中国本土的全球策略
Tony Raunic is a senior lawyer and a Partner in the Melbourne office of the national Australian firm, Hunt & Hunt. A former local government councillor and Mayor he is a regular commentator on the Australian legal and political environment.
咨询公司——高风咨询公司（Gao Feng Advisory Company）的创始人兼CEO。 在帮助数以百计的国内外企业制定与实施 其策略的同时，他也与世界银行、亚洲开 发银行以及中国政府就中国经济改革政策
托尼·罗尼奇是澳大利亚汉氏律师事务
14. DAVID THOMAS
9. ANDREW ROBB
所墨尔本代表处高级律师暨合伙人。作
唐明达
为当地政府前市议员及市长，托尼经常应
Andrew Robb is Minister for Trade and Investment. He has qualifications in Agricultural Science and a first class Honours Degree in Economics. Formerly Executive Director for the Australian Farmers Federation, he advised major companies in Australia and abroad before being elected in 2004.
邀对澳大利亚法律与政治环境进行评论。
David is well-known in the Asia Pacific for his experience and passion for identifying and building business relationships between Australia and the BRIC countries. He is the Chief Executive of Think Global Consulting and an Executive Committee Member of the Australia China Business Council in New South Wales.
安德鲁·罗布，是澳大利亚联邦贸易 历。在2004年10月当选为联邦议员之前，
12. JEONGMIN SEONG 成政珉
Jeongmin is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Company’s business and economics research arm. He leads MGI research teams in China, working on global as well as China-focused themes. 成政珉是麦肯锡公司商业与经济研究
唐明达在甄别、建立和促进澳大利亚与 金砖国家之间商业和投资关系领域的经验、 信誉和热情，唐明达先生在亚太地区享有 盛名。他也Think Global Consulting咨
曾任澳大利亚农业联合会执行总裁，为
部门——麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）的
询公司的负责人及新南威尔士州澳大利亚
澳大利亚及海外公司提供咨询。
高级研究员，主要负责麦肯锡全球研究
中国工商业委员会理事。
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Millie Jia, Stephanie Goh
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Gregory Baldwin, The Illustration Room
Sub Editor 副编辑 Adam Scroggy
Editorial Director 编务总监 Richard Ryan
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Publisher 出版者
Jim Flynn +61 2 8188 3671 jim@citrusmedia.com.au
的有关问题进行合作。
安德鲁·罗布
及投资部部长，拥有农业科学及经济学资
Design 设计
Translation by Nihao Global Limited and Jack Chen (陈晓杰). Printed by Lindsay Yates. Distributed by Network Services Company. Higher View Business is produced for business class passengers on China Eastern Airlines flights between Australia and China. It can also be found in select newsagents, premium hotels and is distributed directly to key people involved in contributing to the China-Australia relationship. Citrus Media wishes to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the Australia China Business Council and its staff and members in making this issue of Higher View Business. We invite contributions from experts in their respective fields – please get in touch with the Editor-in-Chief to discuss. © 2015 Citrus Media. All rights reserved. No article or images may be reproduced wholly or in part without prior written permission from the publisher. While every care was taken during the preparation of this magazine, Citrus Media cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information or any consequence arising from it. All views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views of the writer/photographer/illustrator and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of China Eastern Airlines or CCCA. Higher View Business is an independent publication and is in no way endorsed by China Eastern Airlines.
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NEWS, INSIGHTS, GLOBAL THINKING
INSIGHT 洞察
GET USED TO $US40 IRON ORE, SAYS CHINA STEEL CHIEF
中国钢铁工业协会会长称：矿企需习惯40美元的铁矿石价格 By Perry Williams, Australian Financial Review 作者：佩里·威廉姆斯，《澳大利亚金融评论》 Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group should get used to the price of iron ore trading in a narrow $US40 a tonne range due to declining demand for steel, according to an official Chinese forecaster. The price of iron ore, a key ingredient used to make steel, slumped to just $US44.75 ($62.08) a tonne late November in the Chinese port of Qingdao, nearing a decade low of $US44.59 reached on July 8 this year. Li Xinchuang, president of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning Association, said China’s steel market declined by 2.2 per cent in the 10-month period until the end of October, continuing a trend for slowing demand among the country’s industrial users. “I really do think the steel market will remain weak for at least the coming year,” Mr Li told Fairfax Media in November. “I think the iron ore price will remain in the low $US40 range for that amount of time – and possibly longer.” His bearish comments came just a day after commodity forecaster Andy Xie told Bloomberg the iron ore price would drop below $US40 a tonne before year-end, and trade in the $US30s in 2016 with mills in China cutting output and high cost miners facing pressure to turn a profit. Mr Li said while Australia’s three largest producers – Rio, BHP and Fortescue – would continue to make reasonable margins with iron ore at low levels, there would be a gradual reduction in the ability of Chinese steel mills to keep up with supply over the medium term.
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根据一位中国业内人员关于钢材需求持续下滑 的预测，力拓集团、必和必拓以及FMG集团未来 将需习惯每吨仅40美元上下的铁矿石交易价格。 作为炼钢的关键原材料，今年11月份底中国青 岛港的铁矿石价格已暴跌至每吨44.75美元 （约62.08澳元），逼近今年7月8日每吨44.59美 元的十年最低价位。 中国钢铁工业协会会长李新创表示：截至10月 末，随着中国工业用户需求的持续走低，中国的 钢材市场在过去十个月里下滑了2.2%。 今年11月份，李新创向费尔法克斯传媒的记者 表示：“我认为至少在明年之内钢材市场仍将保 持疲弱态势，而在此期间铁矿石的价格将徘徊在 40美元的低位，并且这种情况有可能会持续更长 的时间。” 而就在他提出这种看空观点的前一天，商品预 测专家谢国忠向彭博社表示铁矿石价格将在年底 之前跌破每吨40美元的大关。随着中国各大炼钢 厂相继削减产量以及考虑到高成本矿业公司面临 的盈利压力，2016年铁矿石价格可能下探至30美 元左右。 李先生指出：虽然澳大利亚三大铁矿石生产商 （力拓、必和必拓以及FMG）在价格低位仍能获 得合理的利润，但从中期来看，中国各大炼钢厂 需求跟上铁矿石供应步伐的能力将会逐渐走弱。
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FEATURE 专栏
CHINESE INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIA WELCOME: FIRB CHIEF FIRB主席专访：澳大利亚 欢迎中国投资者 by Xinhua News Agency 新华社 Brian Wilson, Australia’s top officer overseeing foreign investment, says the country is open to foreign investment and Chinese investors are welcome. In an exclusive interview on the “Talk to China” show in Xinhua ‘s Sydney office, Wilson said the aim of Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) is to encourage and develop relationships for foreign investment in Australia, but within a rule-governed framework. “Australia is a large economy with a small population, and the government has the phrase ‘open for business’ which is really saying ‘we welcome foreign investment’,” FIRB chairman Wilson said. “Foreign investment is important for Australia, and without it we would be a smaller economy, have lower employment, lower incomes. So it’s something that’s attractive,” he added. Australian history has shown that success in trade tends to lead in the future to success in investment. “That has been shown over 100 years with the U.K., the U.S. and Japan,” Wilson said. All the countries he mentioned were Australia’s biggest trade partners for a while. China is now Australia’s largest bilateral trading partner with China comprising 22% of the country’s annual trade which is set to grow with the recently validated Free Trade Agreement (FTA). But investment from China makes up only 4% of Australian total foreign investment. “We would expect over the next few years Chinese investment in Australia will continue to grow,” Wilson said. “And we would also expect, of course, particularly with the Free Trade Agreement, that Australian investment in China will also continue to grow.” The benefits of the FTA will be immediate. Currently, the threshold for Chinese private company investment in Australia is up to A$250 million before a detailed FIRB screening examination is undertaken. But for
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澳大利亚负责审核外国投资的高级官员 布赖恩·威尔逊最近表示，澳大利亚对外国 投资敞开大门，欢迎来自中国的投资者。 澳大利亚外国投资审核委员会（以下简称 FIRB）主席布赖恩·威尔逊在接受新华社悉尼 分社《对话中国》项目采访时说，FIRB的 目标是在依法照章办事的框架下，鼓励并 发展外国在澳投资。他说：“虽然澳大利亚是 大经济体，但是人口不多。澳大利亚政府有句 口号是‘开放迎商’，这句话的意思是澳大利 亚欢迎外国投资。外国投资对澳大利亚非常重 要，没有外国投资，澳大利亚可能会成为较小 的经济体，并且工作机会也会减少，国民收入 也会降低，因此外国投资非常具有吸引力。” 从澳大利亚的历史看来，贸易的成功往往会 带来投资的成功。“在过去一个世纪以来，澳 大利亚与英国、美国、日本的贸易往来都印证 了这一观点”，威尔逊说。他提到的这些国家 都曾经一度是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。 中国现在是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，与 中国的双向贸易额占澳大利亚对外贸易的 22%，这一数字在近期中澳自贸协定签订后 有望继续增长。但是中国对澳投资仅占在 澳外资的4%。“我们希望看到中国对澳大利 亚的投资在接下来的时间里还会继续增长，我 们同样希望在中澳自贸协定的促进下，澳大 利亚对中国的投资也会增长”，威尔逊说。 自由贸易协定的益处将立竿见影。目前中国 私营公司在澳投资的门槛达2.5亿澳元 （1.82亿美元）就需FIRB的详细审批。但是 对于与澳大利亚签署自贸协定的国家来说， 投资审批门槛将提升到约20亿澳元（14.6亿美 元）。威尔逊说：“我们见证着中国对澳投资
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countries with an FTA with Australia, that threshold rises to almost A$2 billion. “We are seeing investment from China grow dramatically as you would expect, because trade tends to give rise to future investment. And for the first time in 2013-2014, the Chinese investment inflow into Australia was the largest from any country, “Wilson said. Australia’s FIRB was established in 1976 to advise the government on foreign investment issues. The surge in Chinese investment to Australia within the past decade, particularly in residential property and large-scale agriculture, has attracted a lot of local media scrutiny and a degree of community edginess. “One thing I’d like to point out is back over 100 years, in the early part of the 20th century, there was a lot of concern in Australia about the British buying up everything,” Wilson said. “In the 1960s and 1970s there was a lot of public concern about Americans making foreign investment in Australia. And the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act came in in 1975. In the 1980s and early 1990s, there was a lot of concern about Japanese investing in Australia. And now of course over the past six or seven years, there has been concern about China investing in Australia. “People, not just in Australia, but all over the world don’t really like change. But after a while something becomes familiar, I have no doubt in another few years no one will be concerned about Chinese investment in Australia. We might be concerned about some other country that is starting to move up the investment curve.” FIRB, overall, has approved A$136 billion from Chinese interests across the board with more than 700 of those being business cases. “We like people to advise us early of their plans to seek guidance,” Wilson said, adding that “We do have on the FIRB website a summary of the foreign investment regime in Mandarin, which is helpful to potential Chinese investors. “What China has and needs and what Australia wants and needs are very complimentary,” he said. “Australian authorities and businesses know how valuable the Australia-China partnership is.”
如预期般显著增长，因为贸易会带来未来投资 的发展。在2013-2014年度，中国对澳大利亚 的投资数量首次位居各国第一。” FIRB成立于1976年，主要任务是针对外国投 资问题为政府提供建议。 在过去十年里，中国人在澳的投资潮，特别 是在房地产和农业领域，已受到当地媒体的 密切关注，而且当地社区居民多少有些焦虑。 对此，威尔逊说：“我想要指出的是，100多 年前，也就是20世纪早期，澳大利亚人非常 担心英国人会买光澳大利亚的商品，害怕英国 人对澳大利亚进行投资——当时这引起了大众 的极大关注与担忧。而到了六七十年代，大众 又开始担心美国人对澳大利亚进行投资。这 就是《1975年外国收购与兼并法》出台的 原因。到了八九十年代早期，人们又开始担心 日本人的投资。而过去的六七年里，人们又对 中国人的投资感到恐慌。不管是澳大利亚人 还是其它世界各地的人，其实人类天性就不 喜欢变化。但是，一段时间过后，人们就会 逐渐适应。所以回顾历史，毫无疑问，几年后 就不会有人对来自中国的投资过于担心，我们 反而要担心，有些其它国家开始跃升为投资热 门地。” FIRB已经批准了约1360亿澳元来自中国的投 资，其中包括700个商业投资项目。威尔逊 说：“我们希望人们可以尽早对自己的投资方 案进行咨询并寻求帮助。FIRB网站上有简体中 文版的澳大利亚外国投资审批政策，这对潜在 的中国投资者了解澳大利亚政策将非常有帮 助。中澳两国彼此所产所需高度互补性，澳大 利亚当局和商界都深知澳中伙伴关系的重要性 不言而喻。”
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FEATURE 专栏
TRADITIONAL CHINESE MEDICINE’S KING HIT AGAINST MALARIA
重拳出击：传统中医药对抗疟疾有奇效 by Annie Bligh, Professor of Medicinal Plant Science, University of Westminster 由安妮·布莱，威斯敏斯特大学药用植物学教授 Tu Youyou was tasked with finding a cure for malaria by Mao Zedong in 1969. More than four decades later, her discoveries help save more than 100,000 lives every year in Africa alone, and she has been rewarded with the highest honour in medicine, the Nobel Prize, shared with fellow parasite-battling scientists William C Campbell and Satoshi Ōmura. What might seem unusual about her scientific work is that Tu began by looking to the plants used in traditional Chinese medicine. But it is far from the only time a modern cure has been found from traditional Chinese medicine and it is unlikely to be the last. Tu and her colleagues searched ancient Chinese medical texts for references to herbs and recipes that might have been used to fight malaria-type symptoms such as fever, rigors and headache. They systematically screened the well-documented texts and sifted through more than 2,000 herb preparations of traditional Chinese herbs and from these identified 380 herb extracts and tested them on mice being infected by malaria parasites. One of these, the common Chinese plant sweet wormwood (Artemesia annua) was prescribed in a 4th century Jin dynasty text, for treating fevers – a key malaria symptom. When tested, it was found to reduce the number of malaria parasites in the blood.
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1969年，屠呦呦受毛泽东委派寻找治疗疟疾 的办法。四十多年后，仅在非洲，她的发现就能 每年挽救十万余条生命，她也因此被授予医学界 最高荣誉——诺贝尔奖。共同获得该奖项的还包 括爱尔兰的坎贝尔（William C Cambell）和 日本的大村智（Satoshi Ōmura ）。 屠呦呦成功的特别之处在于她的研究始于从中 国传统医学中寻找对抗疟疾的物质。但是，从中 医学中发现现代医疗手段这绝非首次，肯定也不 会是最后一次。 屠呦呦及其带领的工作团队查阅大量古代中医 学典籍，寻找可能用于对抗发烧、发冷（寒战） 和头疼等疟疾症状的药草和药方。他们抛开已经 成文的研究文献，转而从2千多个抗疟疾中药制 剂中筛选出380种中药提取物并采用感染疟疾寄 生虫的小鼠进行试验。 最终，从公元4世纪晋代医学文献中发现一种 常见的中国植物青蒿（黄花蒿）可用以对抗疟疾 的主要症状——发热。测试显示，青蒿素能减少 血液中疟疾寄生虫的数量。
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视点 TURNING THE PLANT INTO A DRUG
Tu’s team then started to use different solvents to isolate different chemicals from sweet wormwood. They tested these chemicals one by one against mice infected by malaria parasites until they identified a compound that at a very low dose can kill the parasites faster than other anti-malarial drugs. This compound, artemisinin, can uniquely produce chemically reactive molecules in the parasite that kills them. Isolating different classes of chemicals in plants requires strategy and patience. And producing a pure single compound such as artemisinin in a reasonable quantity from a plant with a higher potency than a synthetic drug is a major achievement. This is often done using a solvent to dissolve certain chemicals from plant material and then slowly evaporating the resulting solution to isolate the compounds. By repeating the process using different solvents it is possible to separate different chemicals. But as well as following scientific methods to isolate the artemisinin, Tu again drew from Chinese medicine, a key element of which involves preparing plants in certain ways to affect their chemical properties. In line with this, Tu discovered that isolating the artemisinin from the plant was best performed at low temperatures.
IMPACT ON MALARIA
The discovery of artemisinin has made a huge difference in the management of malaria treatment in the world. In 2013, 392 million treatment courses using the drug were procured by countries where the disease is endemic. If the malaria parasite were to become resistant to the drug it would severely hamper the goal of malaria eradication and also result in large increases in African childhood mortality. To prevent this from happening, doctors have tried to limit the use of artemisinin-based compounds by combining them with other drugs that kill the parasites in a different way. Such artemisinin based combination therapy is recommended for treatment of uncomplicated malaria (which doesn’t severely affect the internal organs) caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum. Only severe malaria cases are given full doses of artemisinin derivatives (artesunate or artemether). Despite the efforts to quickly diagnose and carefully treat malaria, there have been reports of resistance to artemisinin derivatives on the ThaiCambodian border. In view of the potential resistance to artemisinin derivatives, perhaps a traditional Chinese approach of holistic treatment featuring a prescription of a combination of plants should be re-visited. This article first appeared on theconversation.com
植物研制成药物 之后，屠呦呦研究组开始采用不同的溶剂从 青蒿中提取不同的化学成分。他们使用患疟疾的 小鼠逐一进行试验，终于发现有一种复合物，在 使用极低剂量时就可比其它抗疟疾药物更快地杀 死疟原虫。这种化合物就是青蒿素。它能在寄生 虫内部产生独特的化学活性分子，从而杀死寄 生虫。 分离植物中不同类别的化学物质需要技巧和耐 心。从天然植物中提纯相当数量且比合成物具有 更高药效的单一化合物——如青蒿素——就是屠 呦呦的重大成就。通常我们使用一种溶剂分解出 植物原料中的某种化学物质，然后缓慢蒸发合成 溶液得到提纯的化合物。采用不同的溶剂重复这 一过程才有可能分离出不同的化学物质。 但是，除了运用科学方法提取青蒿素以外， 屠呦呦还从中医典籍研究中发现，以某些特定方 式先期处理植物相当关键，因其会影响青蒿素的 化学特性。有鉴于此，她最终研究发现从植物中 提取青蒿素最好在低温下进行。 抗疟疾疗效 青蒿素的发现对全球疟疾的治疗管理意义重 大。2013年，在疟疾常发的国家共有3.92亿份的 相应药物被采用。如果疟原虫对青蒿素的耐药性 增加，它就将对我们根除疟疾的目标产生严重阻 碍，也会使非洲的儿童死亡率大幅提高。 为防止这种情况，医学界试图将青蒿素与以其 它方式对抗疟原虫的其它药物配合使用，以限制 以青蒿素为主要成分药物的使用。这种青蒿素为 主的联合疗法被推荐用于治疗由恶性疟原虫引起 的单纯性疟疾（未对内脏器官造成严重影响）。 只有重症疟疾病例才需要使用足量的青蒿素衍生 物（青蒿琥酯或蒿甲醚）。 尽管医药界试图快速诊断并谨慎对待疟疾，仍 有报道称在泰国柬埔寨边界出现青蒿素衍生物耐 药性案例。鉴于青蒿素衍生物的潜在耐药性问 题，或许是我们重新思考传统中医中以各类植物 配伍处方为中心，强调身体全面调治的时候了。 本文首见于theconversation.com。
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NEWS BRIEFS 新讯妙闻
FETCH ME MY COAT, BELVEDERE! 帮我取件外套，阿贝！ Demand for Western-trained butlers is growing among China’s elite. Associated Press reports the popularity of the British TV series ‘Downton Abbey has brought rising demand for butler training from institutions like the International Butler Academy in Chengdu, which teaches etiquette and household management. Property developers have also driven this demand by hiring butlers for their showrooms and even offering butler service for new apartment owners, in an effort to stand out among their competitors. 中国精英群体对训练有素的西式管家服务需求不断攀升。 据美联社报道，英国电视剧《唐顿庄园》的热潮使得成都 国际管家学院（提供礼节礼仪与家事管理培训服务）等机 构的管家培训需求进一步升温。房地产开发商为从竞争中 脱颖而出，采取了在其售楼部雇佣管家甚至为新的住宅业 主提供管家服务等举措，从而也推动该需求的急剧上升。
CHINESE TOURISTS DRIVE HOTEL BOOM 中国游客推动澳洲酒店业繁荣 The booming hotel industry in Australia is benefiting from a record number of visitors, driven by steadily increasing Chinese tourists. Hotel occupancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne have averaged a record 88% over a 12 month span, reports STR Global. According to Austrade and Tourism Research Australia, China would increase its visitor numbers to 1.5 million by the end of 2015, overtaking Kiwis for the first time. 得益于访澳游客增加，更由于中国游客数目持续攀升， 澳大利亚酒店业一派繁荣。据STR Global报道，过去12个 月，悉尼和墨尔本酒店入住率平均达到88%。根据澳大利 亚贸易委员会及其下属的澳大利亚旅游调查局(Tourism Research Australia)预计，到2015年底，中国游客数目有 望增加到150万，第一次超过新西兰。 20 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
TSINGHUA TOPS MIT IN GLOBAL UNIVERSITY RANKINGS 全球大学排名：清华超越麻省理工 China’s prestigious Tsinghua University has displaced the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as the world’s premier school for engineering research, according to a new ranking by US News & World Report. The ranking has sparked debate, with some crediting it as a symbol of China’s growing influence. Others dispute the finding. Says Terry Crawford, CEO and co-founder of InitialView: “I feel like any top student in China would still choose MIT.”
据《美国新闻与世界报道》 最新排名，中国久负盛名的清华 大学取代麻省理工学院成为工程 研究领域全球顶尖院校。排名既 出，热议一片。有些人将其誉为 中国影响力提升的标志；其他人 则不以为然。初鉴（InitialView） 创始人与首席执行官Terry Crawford先生说：“我觉得中国 超群出众之才都还会选择麻省 理工。”
STEEL INDUSTRY’S METTLE TESTED AS PRODUCTION FALLS 钢铁产量下降，行业面临考验 Chinese steel mill output is falling as local demand wanes. Supply for the first ten months of 2015 was 2.2% less than the same period the previous year, said the National Bureau of Statistics in November. Chinese mills are responsible for half of global steel output which is creating worries for miners of iron ore in Australia and Brazil, particularly as iron ore supply continues to rise. 商道
随着本土需求的缩减，中国钢铁 产量下滑。据国家统计局11月份 统计结果显示，2015年前10个月 供应量与去年同期相比，减少 2.2%。而钢铁产量占到全球一半 的中国钢铁企业，也对澳大利亚 和巴西的铁矿石开采商带来压 力——尤其在铁矿石供应量持续 上升的情况下。
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Bank of China, Your first choice for RMB business.
“In the spirit forged by a hundred years of international experience and at the forefront of today’s global economy and finance, Bank of China provides a broad range of RMB products and services tailored to your needs offering new solutions to reinvigorate your global trade and investment activities through our global payments network, abundance of financial products and consummate professional expertise.” 中国银行传承百年国际业务精髓,把握全球经济金融脉搏,以遍布全球的清 算网络、丰富的金融产品和精湛的专业技术,为您量身打造综合性人民币 业务服务方案,为您的全球贸易和投资活动提供新的选择,注入新的活力。 商道
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IMAX MAKING WAVES IN HK IMAX香港上市， 掀起轩然大波
IMAX Corp.’s China division has made a strong debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Shares jumped 10% as investors anticipated a continuing rise in box-office profits in China. One of the best Honk Kong IPO debuts of the year, it arrived as the company plans to increase funds to expand into the Chinese mainland. Chinese box office receipts totalled US$4.72 billion through September, surpassing the total for all of 2014. IMAX中国在香港证券交易所成功上市。股价 飙升10%，投资者预计中国票房利润将持续增 加。IMAX中国作为本年度香港上市首日表现 最佳公司之一，实现了公司大幅增资强势登陆 中国大陆市场的计划。九月，中国票房收入达 到47.2亿美元，超过2014年全年。
DIDI KUAIDI IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT
RETHINKING AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY
滴滴快的一马当先
澳大利亚房地产业反思
Shanghai city officials have granted Didi Kuaidi—Uber’s biggest rival in China’s private ride-sharing market— permission to operate its online booking platform. As the first to be given this authorisation, Did Kuaidi must register and insure its cars, drivers, and passengers. The company says it provides 6 million domestic rides per day compared to 1 million for Uber.
Chinese investors are easing back on Australian property, say global real estate agent firms JLL and Saville in Hong Kong. Structural modifications in the Chinese economy, capital control, and a hard line on corruption will see the pace of investment moderate but not fall, they said, according to the Australian Financial Review. The Foreign Investment Review Board reported that in 2013-14, China overtook the United States as the largest foreign investor in Australia at US$27.7 billion.
上海市有关机构正式批准滴滴快的——优步在中国约租 车市场最大的竞争对手——运营其网络约租车平台。 作为第一个获此殊荣的企业，滴滴快的要求为其涉约车 辆、司机和乘客登记并购买保险。公司称其每天提供的 约租车服务达到600万人次。相比优步的100万，此举堪 称滴滴快的实现中国市场浓墨重彩的重要一笔。
ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR CHINA’S FIRST AIRLINER 中国首架大型客机万事俱备 China has manufactured its first large passenger jet. The 158-seater was revealed as a symbol of Beijing’s efforts to compete with competitors such as Boeing. The jet won’t be delivered to airlines until 2018 at the earliest as flight testing has yet to commence. 中国成功研制首架大型喷气式客机（混合级布局 158座），成为国产飞机与波音等竞争的标志。据悉， 该喷气式干线客机尚未开始试飞，预计最早将于2018年 投入使用。 22 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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中国投资者正在逐渐减少其对澳 洲房地产业的投资，全球房地产 经纪公司仲量联行（JLL）和 Saville的香港分公司如是说。据 《澳大利亚金融评论报》消息， 他们认为中国经济结构调整以及 中国政府大力整治贪污腐败，将 促使投资步调放缓，但并非倒 退。根据外国投资审查委员会 2013-2014年度报道，中国超越美 国成为在澳投资比重最大的外国 投资方，其投资额达277亿美元。
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ONE-CHILD POLICY REMOVAL TO BOOST GDP, PREDICTS GOVERNMENT 政府预言：一孩政策取消，推动GDP增长 China’s recent abolition of its one-child policy will increase GDP growth by 0.5%, authorities have projected. The National Health and Family Planning Commission predicted that by 2050, the new policy allowing couples to have two children will add an extra 30 million workers to the labour force. Critics say these numbers are optimistic and point to Japan and Korea’s struggles to increase fertility rates.
有关机构预计，近来中国取消一 孩政策准生二胎，有望促成GDP 增幅0.5%。中国国家卫生和计划 生育委员会预计，到2050年， 一对夫妻生育两个子女的新政策 将额外增加3000万劳动力。有评 论家认为，日韩努力提高生育率 的严峻形势下，这些数字堪称 利好。
JACK MA TALKS UP CHINESE CONSUMERS 阿里巴巴对中国消费者 信心不减 E-commerce giant Alibaba has assured shareholders of its growth prospects in response to concerns over slowing revenue and China’s economy. “China does not lack domestic consumption power,” wrote executive chairman Jack Ma in a letter to shareholders, assuring them that China’s economic slowdown wouldn’t affect sales for the e-commerce giant. Alibaba recorded US$14.3 billion in sales during China’s Singles’ Day online shopping spree, exceeding expectations. 面对营业收入和中国经济放缓的忧虑，电商巨头阿里巴 巴明确表示其发展前景无须堪忧。“中国本土消费力量 雄厚，”阿里巴巴集团董事局主席兼首席执行官马云在 其致股东函中，向股东保证中国经济衰退不会动摇其电 商大腕儿的地位。今年双十一网购狂欢节阿里巴巴全天 交易额达143亿美元，超过预期。
REDUCED INTEREST IN REVAMPED SIV VISA 重大投资移民签证（SIV） 新规：兴致索然 Chinese millionaires are losing interest in the Australian Significant Investor Visa programme after new requirements that applicants put more money into riskier investments. The programme was popular under its old rules, seeing more than 1,600 applicants since 2012. But SIV applicants now must invest at least A$2 million into smaller equities and venture capital. Only 19 people had applied for the new permit since July, according to figures released in November, stymieing fund managers expecting an influx of cash.
澳大利亚推出重大投资者签证 新规，申请人投资风险增加， 中国富豪兴趣缺乏。原移民签证 计划之下申请者众多，2012年 至今超过1600人。但是现在要 求重大投资移民签证申请人必 须在小型私营企业或创业投资 领域至少投资200万澳元。据11月 份统计数据，7月以来仅有19人 申请该项签证。基金经理人对 有关资金流入大失所望。 商道
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CLIMATE CHANGE NOT A BIG ISSUE, SAY ORDINARY CHINESE 中国百姓认为气候变化不是大问题 Only 18% of Chinese consider climate change a very serious problem, according to the Pew Research Centre. This number has fallen a surprising 23 points from similar polling 5 years ago. The poll revealed China to be far less concerned with climate change than the 54% global median. However, roughly 80% of Chinese believe their country should be limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
根据皮尤研究中心调查，仅有18% 的中国人认为气候变化形势严 峻。更令人惊讶的是，相较于五 年前的一个类似调查，这一数据 结果下降23个百分点。本次调查 显示中国人对气候变化的关注远 低于54%的全球中位数水平。但 是，大约80%的中国人认为国家应 该限制温室气体排放。
WALKING ON AIR 空中漫步 China has opened the world’s longest glass walkway. Zhonghui Scenic Area Management Company, which devised the 300 metre bridge in Hunan Province, estimates it is attracting around 3,500 people a day and up to 15,000 on weekends. The reinforced glass is 25 times stronger than normal glass and can support up to 100 people at once, walking a terrifying 180 metres off the ground. 中国已经设计建设全球最长的玻璃走廊。设计这条 全长300米的“天空之路”（位于中国湖南省）的中汇 景点管理公司（音译）预计，这一景点每天将吸引 游客3,500人，周末甚至可达15,000人。玻璃走廊 所使用的钢化玻璃，其强度高于普通标准玻璃25倍，可 一次性承载多达100人的“高空漫步”（离地180米的高 空行走）。
CHINA LIFTS IPO BAN 中国解除新股禁令
FERNDALE OFFERS SWEET DEAL Ferndale糖果公司的“甜头” Ferndale, the Australian confectionary company, is seeking an equity partner as it attempts to expand into the Asian market. Offering a healthier alternative to traditional industry offerings, Ferndale is targeting the changing tastes of Asian consumers towards healthier, more boutique products. 24 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
目前澳大利亚糖果公司Ferndale 正在寻找合伙人以拓展其亚洲 市场。Ferndale的设想是面 向亚洲消费者对更健康、更精 致产品的新诉求，提供更为 健康的食品来取代传统工业 产品。 商道
China has lifted its ban on initial public offerings following measures to halt a sharemarket plunge that began in June 2015. China’s economy has since entered a bull market and the removal of the IPO ban is expected to further encourage buying as share prices rise. 2015年6月开始，中国遭逢股市大跌。在一系列“叫 停”举措之后，中国解除新股发行禁令。自此，中国经 济进入多头市场。随着股价上涨，新股禁令的解除预计 将进一步推动A股市场大好势头。
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WELCOME TO AN OASIS OF TRANQUILITY... THE SKYTEAM EXCLUSIVE LOUNGE. At their hubs and beyond, SkyTeam members’ world-class lounge facilities are a welcome escape from busy terminals and the place to enjoy a little pre-flight or stopover relaxation. When you’re in Istanbul, Sydney or London Heathrow’s T4 – and soon in Dubai – you can step into a SkyTeam Exclusive Lounge to unwind. They add a breath of fresh air to your travels with their lush botanical walls. And they’re fully equipped for a bit of work, a bite to eat or a longed-for break. Join us in our 636 lounges using the Lounge Finder at skyteam.com, or download the SkyTeam app.
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Photo by ChinaFotoPress / Getty Images
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FEATURE 专栏
FORGET FACEBOOK, WHAT’S YOUR WECHAT STRATEGY? 先别提Facebook，你的微信策略如何？ by Lisa Murray, Australian Financial Review Lisa Murray，澳大利亚《金融评论报》 There’s a question that hangs in the air over every dinner party in Shanghai right now. It could be asked straight away or it might take an hour before someone lobs it across the table but it’s there. What’s your WeChat strategy? Whether you are a small café or a big foreign bank, everyone has one and it’s not hard to see why. Internet giant Tencent Holdings revealed on Tuesday its WeChat messaging platform, known as Weixin in China, had 650 million monthly active users at the end of September. That number was 39 per cent higher than a year ago and up from 600 million in July. Perhaps, even more importantly, the company announced as part of its third-quarter results that more than 200 million users of its WeChat and QQ messaging platforms had tied bank cards to their accounts. That means more and more people are using the platforms to pay for taxis, restaurants and movie tickets. WeChat was launched four years ago as a way for people to message each other over the internet but has morphed into a service that offers much more. It is China’s version of Facebook and Twitter rolled into one, with an increasingly popular mobile payment tool. You can now use WeChat to video conference work colleagues, order and pay for a coffee, play games, hail a taxi and share photos with friends. For businesses, they can communicate with and update customers, advertise events and products and facilitate transactions. Until recently the mobile payments were free but now Tencent charges some customers who spend above a certain threshold.
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现在上海几乎所有的宴会场上都会涉及这样一 个问题——可能开门见山，也可能“千呼万唤始 出来”，但是，一定会出现。 那就是：你的微信策略如何？ 无论是小咖啡馆还是大银行家，都免不了这一 问题。其原因不言而喻。 网络巨头腾讯控股本周二公布，截至九月底其 微信平台月活跃用户数已达6.5亿。 而在七月份该数据还只有6亿，相比一年前更 是实现了39%的增长。 或许，更重要的是，腾讯在其第三季度财报中 公布超过2亿的微信和QQ平台用户绑定了银行 卡。这就意味着越来越多的人在使用腾讯支付平 台打车、就餐、看电影。 四年前问世时微信只是人们通过因特网互相发 送消息的一种途径，但是现在已经集多种服务于 一体。它是Facebook和Twitter的中国组合 版，兼具日益受到大众青睐的支付工具。现在通 过微信可以与同事视频会议，与朋友分享照片， 也可以订咖啡，玩游戏，打车。 对于企业，可以用微信与客户沟通，更新信 息，进行活动和产品宣传，促进交易。 一直以来，腾讯对移动支付服务免费提供， 不过现在已开始向一些花费到达一定额度的客户 收费。 微信也走在中国电子商务繁荣发展的前沿， 有助于抵消国内制造业和房地产业的低迷疲软。 今年的“双十一”网购狂欢即是证明：中国网络 消费空前，轰动全球。
收购商业写字楼和住宅开发用地， 视点
人脉定输赢
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ACQUISITION OF COMMERCIAL BUILDING & RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITES IS ALL ABOUT WHO YOU KNOW Introducing Jie Feng of Harrells & Feng Group Today’s commercial real estate market is internationally competitive. That’s why you need a commercial property agent who’s a global citizen: someone at home in Sydney as well as Shanghai. When you meet Jie, you say ‘hello’ to a whole new world.
Extend your reach Jie’s extensive network in China and Australia means she can help to find the right property for the right buyer. She maintains a roster of powerful clients and knows exactly how to match them, so you get real, genuine offers from serious buyers.
Isn’t it time for you to meet Jie? Contact Jie now at +61 (0) 447204967, or head to harrellsfeng.com.au. Because your time is your greatest assets and she is here to help. 今日收购商业写字楼和住宅开发用地的竞争已硝烟全球，想 要成为赢家，您必须找对人，您需要一个拥有全球视野的行 家为您导航。冯婕是您最好的选择。来自 Harrells & Feng Group －冯婕，将以丰富的人脉和专业的视角，带您开拓 澳洲商业地产新世界。
决胜之眼界－ 国际资产收购需要敏锐精准高效调动资源。借助在新南威 尔士大学的专项学习和15年金融地产界的的从业经验， 深谙澳大利亚金融法律系统及房产市场的冯婕能够最有效 的为您发掘到您想要的投资机会，并为您在澳洲组建一个 有效的团队来为您的投资项目进行调研和实施，最终设计 出最可行的收购方案，冯婕和她的团队将会为您的决投资 策保驾护航，以助您拓展在澳洲的商业版图。
开创多赢未来 更多信息，请致电冯婕 +61 (0) 447.204.967 或访问 harrellsfeng.com.au. 我们知道，您的时间宝贵。所 以，您只需告诉冯婕您的要求，剩下的请交给冯婕和她的 团队，她和她的团队期待与您合作，共创多赢的未来！
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+61 (0) 447 204 967 了解更多信息
+61 (0) 447 204 967 FOR MORE INFORMATION Suite 2, 315 Anzac Parade, Kingsford NSW 2032 jie@harrellsfeng.com.au | harrellsfeng.com.au
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WeChat is at the forefront of an e-commerce boom in China, which is helping to offset a sharp slow-down in the country’s manufacturing and property sectors. The ramp up in spending online was on display in November during the country’s world-famous Single’s Day sale. Alibaba’s online retail platforms, Taobao and Tmall, were the first to capitalise on Single’s Day, which was established by university students in the early 1990s as a rebellion against Valentine’s Day. In 2009, Alibaba notched up RMB50 million in sales over the 24 hours. Last year, group sales topped RMB57 billion. This year Single’s Day smashed all previous records with Chinese shoppers buying RMB91.2 billion (US$14.3 billion) of goods through Alibaba alone, and billions more on competing websites. Tencent has a 15 per cent stake in Taobao and Tmall’s main rival, JD. com, which also offered promotions for the sale. Tencent, which is listed in Hong Kong, reported a 32% increase in third-quarter net profit, buoyed by strong sales growth for online games — still the main income generator for the group — and advertising. The advertising revenue was up this year as WeChat started running sponsored ads on its “moments” page, a Facebook-like news feed. The company’s net profit rose to a record RMB7.45 billion over the period while revenue jumped more than a third to a better-than-expected RMB26.6 billion.
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阿里巴巴网络零售平台“淘宝”和“天猫”首 开先河，利用“光棍节”展开促销。11月11 日“光棍节”起源于上世纪九十年代初的大学文 化，单身男女将这一天作为对抗“情人节”的娱 乐性节日。2009年“双十一”，阿里巴巴24小 时销售额半亿人民币。去年同日，全天成交额达 570亿。 而今年的“光棍节”打破了此前的所有记录。 中国网络消费者仅在阿里巴巴购物就创下了912 亿人民币的销售新高；其它竞争网站也实现几十 亿的销售收入。 “淘宝”与“天猫”的主要竞争对手“京东” （jd.com）也大举参与了“双十一”的狂欢促 销。腾讯拥有京东15%的股份。 据报道，得益于网络游戏（仍为该企业销售创 收大户）和广告销售的强劲增长，香港上市企业 腾讯第三季度净盈利增长32%。而本年度广告收 入的增长主要在于微信启动了“朋友圈”（类似 于Facebook的“动态消息”）赞助广告。 这一时期腾讯净盈利创新高，达到人民币 74.5亿元，而收入则跃升三分之一以上并超过预 期达到266亿人民币。 Photo by Getty Images
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Perth – Australia’s most beautiful city? Experience it to believe it.
Visit Australia’s sunniest capital city and you’ll experience more than just amazing sunsets over the ocean. Perth effortlessly blends urban cool with raw natural beauty and makes the perfect base for your unique Western Australian experience. Bustling with new bars, restaurants, shopping and cultural spaces, Perth is also home to spectacular Kings Park - one of the world’s largest inner city parks, beautiful wineries and stunning beaches where you can even swim with wild dolphins. So visit Perth and experience it for yourself.
westernaustralia.com.au Your gateway to Perth 商道
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INVESTMENT
投资
澳大利亚北部地区：澳大利亚投资新前沿
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA - AUSTRALIA’S NEW INVESTMENT FRONTIER Northern Australia is a vast region that stretches from Broome in the west to Cairns in the east. It is a part of Australia that holds much economic promise and potential but for decades has been underutilised due to a lack of capital. The region comprises only 5% of Australia’s population yet 40% of our land mass. It is endowed with 17 million hectares of arable soil and receives 60% of the nation’s rainfall, however we capture and use less than 2% of that. Historically, mining and agriculture have been the backbone of the northern economy along with a strong contribution from tourism. We believe the north’s time has come. It is time to set the north on a path of development and prosperity. The sectors where we can expand and build greater scale include agribusiness and food, tourism infrastructure, resources and energy, major infrastructure, tropical medicine and education. In order to unlock the potential of the north, significant investment will be required and much of it will need to come from sources outside Australia. That is why I recently hosted the Northern Australia Investment Forum in Darwin, the capital of our Northern Territory. The Forum was attended by over 350 senior business people and investors from more than 20 countries. More than 100 investmentready projects were available for inspection and discussion. We were fortunate to have strong representation by firms from China and Hong Kong including China Merchants Group, China Resources, Shanghai Zhongfu, Landbridge, Ying Xiang Group, Yunnan Yinmore Sugar, China Communications Construction Company International, Shanghai CRED and Dalian Weilin Trade.
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Government representatives from the National Development and Reform Commission also attended. Other major international companies at the Forum included Grupo JBS, the world’s largest beef producer; Khazanah Nasional Berhad, Malaysia’s primary sovereign wealth fund; MSF Sugar Limited; Korea Development Bank and Omega Diagnostics. In order to really capitalise on the commercial potential of Australia’s northern regions it will be important to think big. A growing middleclass in Asia is demanding the high-quality goods and services that Australia’s north can produce. These increasingly affluent people are also demanding the sort of unique tourism experiences that only our north can provide. If we are to meet this demand, projects need to have scale and size, on a scale that is possible only with large amounts of capital and long-term vision. One example is Project Sea Dragon, which proposes to build a 10,000 hectare prawn farm in the Northern Territory’s Victoria River District near the border with Western Australia. The project will produce 100,000 tonnes of Black Tiger Prawns each year. It will be Australia’s largest aquaculture project but will still make only a minor impression on the huge global demand for quality prawns. Other billion-dollar projects involve irrigating large tracts of land to create highly productive agricultural land for horticulture or new industries. One of those new industries being trialled in the Northern Territory is production of pharmaceutical-grade opium poppies. Visitor numbers to Australia are growing strongly, particularly from China. It is expected that Australia will host more than a million visitors from China this financial year.
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by Andrew Robb
Overall international visitor arrivals are forecast to increase almost 6 per cent to 7.5 million in 2015–16. More investment is needed in tourism infrastructure, developing hotels, resorts and other unique attractions right across northern Australia. An example is China’s Fullshare group, which is upgrading the iconic Sheraton Mirage Port Douglas and has plans to develop a new resort in Queensland’s Whitsunday islands. Australia is in its 25th year of continuous growth, has a stable economy and enormous potential in our north. This is a region that is only a short flight away from the world’s centre of economic growth in Asia. Australia welcomes foreign investment that will provide us with the capital, skills and expertise to unlock all the potential that exists in northern Australia.
澳大利亚北部地区幅员辽阔，从西 部 的 布 隆 （Broome）延伸到东岸的凯恩斯（Cairns）， 这片蕴藏全澳最具经济前景的广袤土地，由于 资金短缺数十年来其潜力一直未获充分开发。 该地区人口仅占澳大利亚总人口的5%，而其 土地面积却达到40%。这片富饶的土地， 可耕面积达到1700万公顷，降雨量约占全国的 60%，而我们的利用率却不足2%。 一直以来，采矿和农业是北部地区经济的支 柱产业。旅游业对其经济亦有重大贡献。 我们相信开发广袤澳北地区的机遇已经来 临！幅员辽阔的澳大利亚北部地区即将踏上发 展与繁荣之路！ 适于大规模开发建设的产业包括农业经营与 食品、旅游基础设施、资源及能源、重大基础 设施、热带医学和教育等。 为充分开发北部地区的巨大潜力，我们需要
INVESTMENT
投资
Sunset Camel Ride, Broome 日落时分骑着骆驼走过迷人的凯布尔海滩， 布鲁姆
引进重大投资，其中许多将包括澳大利亚境外 的相关投资。这也正是最近在北领地首府达尔 文举行澳北投资论坛的原因。 参加该论坛人士包括来自20多个国家的350 多位商界高层和投资者。超过100个投资项目万 事俱备蓄势待发。 我们很荣幸能邀请中国招商局集团、华润集 团、上海中福集团、岚桥集团、Ying Xiang 集 团、云南英茂糖业、中国交通建设公司、上海 中房置业和大连伟林贸易等中国及中国香港企 业代表出席。 参加论坛的还包括中国国家发展和改革委员 会的政府代表。 出席论坛的其它主要国际企业包括JBS股份公 司——世界最大的牛肉生产商，国库控股 （Khazanah Nasional Berhad）——马来西 亚主要的主权财富基金，昆士兰MSF制糖有限 公司（MSF Sugar Limited），韩国产业银行 （Korea Development Bank）和欧米茄诊疗 集团（Omega Diagnostics）。 要充分开发澳大利亚北部地区的商业潜力， 重要的是大处着眼，方能决胜千里。亚洲中产 阶级群体不断壮大，对澳大利亚北部地区所能 提供的优质商品与服务的需求日益高涨；对于 只有我们北部地区所能提供的独特旅游体验的 需求也不断增加。
而我们要满足这一需求，有关项目必需具备 一定的规模。这一规模可能只有通过大量的资 金和长远的视野方能实现。 以“海龙项目”为例，该项目计划在北领地 靠 近 西 澳 大 利亚州边界的维多利亚河域建设 10,000公顷的养殖虾基地。 该项目将实现年产草虾100,000吨，是澳大利 亚最大的水产养殖项目。但是，面对全球庞大 的优质对虾需求，这样一个项目也只能是杯水 车薪。 其它金额达十亿的项目还包括土地灌溉以实 现高产能农用地以满足园艺或新产业需要的项 目。北领地境内正在试行的新产业之一是药用 级罂粟生产。 访澳游客数目迅猛增加，尤其是中国游客。 预计本年度中国访澳游客将超百万。 2015-16年间，访澳国际游客预计将增加近6 个百分点，增至750万人。澳大利亚北部地区也 急需大量旅游基础设施投资，以进行酒店、度 假区及其它独特旅游景点的开发。 以中国南京丰盛产业集团为例。该集团正在 对标榜项目Sheraton Mirage Port Douglas进 行升级改造，还计划在昆士兰州圣灵群岛 （Whitsunday）开发一个新的度假区。 澳大利亚已实现连续25年的经济增长。我们 北部地区经济稳定，蕴藏着巨大的发展潜力。
商道
这是一片与亚洲的全球经济增长中心近在咫 尺的土地。我们诚挚欢迎境外投资为我们带来 资金、技术和专业知识，以充分开发澳大利亚 北部地区无限潜能。
Andrew Robb, Minister for Trade and Investment. 安德鲁·罗布，贸易和投资部长。
H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 31
全球专递
GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
In this issue we look at Australia-China relations compared to the rest of the world on a range of measures provided by the Australia-China Relations Institute. 我们在这一期从多方面探讨澳洲与其它国家相比下与中国之间的关 系，内容由澳大利亚－中国研究院所提供。 NUMBER OF SIGNED / FAILED INVESTMENTS AND CONTRACTS BY CHINESE FIRMS OVER $US100 MILLION IN NATION 中国企业在各国逾1亿美元的合同及投资成功／失败的数量 SIGNED 成功
33
FAILED 失败
11
1
FRANCE
CANADA
96
15
7 16
0
1
法国
加拿大
19
3
The Heritage Foundation
SOUTH KOREA 南韩
1
SINGAPORE
66
新加坡
21
USA
美国
GERMANY
AUSTRALIA
德国
澳大利亚
VOTING AFFINITY WITH CHINA IN THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY ON A SCALE OF -1 TO 1* 联合国大会上对与中国拥有密切关系的投票结果（最低－1至最高1分）*
USA
美国
0.85 SOUTH 0.46 0.44 0.34 0.24 0.19 0.15 KOREA NEW ZEALAND GERMANY FRANCE AUSTRALIA CANADA
SINGAPORE 新加坡
南韩
新西兰
德国
法国
澳大利亚
* On a scale of 1, which represents perfect voting affinity, to -1, which represents no voting similarity. Formulated using ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes and abstentions.
NUMBER OF MILITARY EXERCISES IN WHICH NATION HAS PARTICIPATED WITH CHINA 各国与中国进行军事演习的次数 AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 USA 美国 SIGNAPORE 新加坡 NEW ZEALAND 新西兰
14 12 9 7
CANADA 加拿大
7 4 1
GERMANY 德国
0
FRANCE 法国 SOUTN KOREA 南韩
32 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
US DoD, Chinese MoD
商道
-0.58
加拿大
Voeten, E
CHINESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT STOCK IN NATION ($US MILLION) & SHARE OF CHINA’S TOTAL FDI STOCK IN NATION 中国在各国的海外直接投资存量（单位：百万美元）；中国占各国FDI总存量的份额 CANADA
GERMANY
4.31% SOUTH KOREA 南韩|2,772
南韩
0.66% SINGAPORE 新加坡
FRANCE 法国
NEW ZEALAND 新西兰|962
CANADA 加拿大|7,789
SOUTH KOREA
德国
0.88%
GERMANY 德国|5,785
SINGAPORE 新加坡|20,640
加拿大
FRANCE 法国|8,445
AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚|23,882
USA 美国|38,011
SOURCE: CEIC DATA 2014
0.41%
0.96% NEW ZEALAND
USA
新西兰
2.34%
美国
AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚
Chinese FDI Stock in Nation ($US million)
中国在各国的FDI存量（单位：百万美元）
0.11%
2.71%
SHARE OF NATION’S TOTAL FDI STOCK IN CHINA 各国在中国FDI占其总存量的份额
SOURCE: UNCTAD 2012
NATION’S FDI STOCK IN CHINA ($US MILLION)
各国在中国的FDI存量（单位：百万美元） GERMANY 德国 $19,762 FRANCE 法国 $11,519 AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 $8,705
1.8%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
AUSTRALIA
GERMANY
CANADA
FRANCE
NEW ZEALAND
澳大利亚
德国
加拿大
法国
与中国签订自由贸易协定
NATION HAS CENTRAL BANK CURRENCY SWAP 拥有央行货币掉期
NATION IS FOUNDING MEMBER OF AIIB 亚洲基础设施投资银行创始会员
NUMBER OF CHINESE STUDENTS IN TERTIARY EDUCATION 接受高等教 育的中国学生
$8,336 NEW ZEALAND 新西兰 $149
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
FRANCE
GERMANY
NEW ZEALAND
√
(2008)
澳大利亚
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA
新西兰
CANADA 加拿大
(2015)
√
加拿大
法国
√
√
(2012)
(2014)
(2013)
√
(2015)
(2015)
德国
√
(2013)
√
√
(2015)
新西兰
√ √
(2011)
√
(2015)
SINGAPORE 新加坡
√
(2008)
√
(2008)
√
(2014)
SOUTH KOREA
USA
南韩
美国
(2015)
√
(2008)
√
√
(2015)
PERCENTAGE OF CITIZENS WITH POSITIVE VIEW OF CHINA 公民对中国有好感的百分比
79%
68%
58%
56%
SINGAPORE
NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚
SOUTH KOREA
新西兰
47%
47%
35%
28%
CANADA
FRANCE
USA
GERMANY
87,980
AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚
34,602 CANADA 加拿大
25,234 FRANCE 法国
新加坡
加拿大
法国
商道
美国
南韩
德国
SOURCE: AUDITING THE AUSTRALIA-CHINA RELATIONSHIP, 2015
H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 33
COVER STORY By Erik Roth, Director, McKinsey’s Shanghai office
封面故事
Jeongmin Seong, Senior Fellow, McKinsey Global Institute Jonathan Woetzel, Director, McKinsey’s Shanghai office; Director, McKinsey Global Institute. 作者： 罗瑞麟，麦肯锡上海分公司董事 成政珉，麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）高级研究员 华强森，麦肯锡上海分公司董事；麦肯锡全球研究院董事
illustration by Gregory Baldwin, The Illustration Room 36 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
COVER STORY
封面故事
创新驱动增长: 中国经济路在何方?
CHINA’S INNOVATION CHALLENGE
To realise consensus growth forecasts of 5.5% to 6.5% a year, China needs to generate two to three percentage points of annual GDP growth through innovation. A McKinsey analysis suggests this transformation is possible, but not inevitable. 中国经济要实现5.5%至6.5%这个普遍认同的年度增长 率预测，需要通过创新实现其中2至3个百分点的GDP 年度增长。麦肯锡分析认为实现这种转型有可能，但 并非是必然结果。
T
he events of 2015 have shown that China is passing through a challenging transition: the labor-force expansion and surging investment that propelled three decades of growth are now weakening. This is a natural stage in the country’s economic development. Yet it raises questions such as how drastically the expansion of GDP will slow down and whether the country can tap new sources of growth. New research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) suggests that to realise consensus growth forecasts—5.5% to 6.5% a year—during the coming decade, China must generate two to three percentage points of annual GDP growth through innovation, broadly defined. If it does, innovation could contribute much of the $3 trillion to $5
2
015年形势表明中国正在经历一个极具挑战性的过渡： 推动中国经济三十年增长的劳动力扩张和投资激增因素 正在减弱。这是国家经济发展的必然阶段。但是，它也提 出了许多问题：GDP增长会降幅几何？国家又是否能培育 新的经济增长点呢？ 麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）一项新的研究认为：未来十 年中国要实现5.5%至6.5%这个普遍认同的年度增长率预测， 则必须通过(广义而言的)创新实现其中2至3个百分点的 GDP增长。这样的话，到2025年创新将为中国经济作出每 年3至5万亿的贡献。中国也将由吸收并改良国际先进技术 和知识的“汲取创新”国家演变为全球创新领军人物。我 们分析认为这种转型不无可能但并非理所当然。 当我们对中国企业创新思想商业化的程度及其运用新思 想提升市场占有率、增加盈利和加强竞争的程度进行评估
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 37
COVER STORY
封面故事
trillion a year to GDP by 2025. China will have evolved from an “innovation sponge,” absorbing and adapting existing technology and knowledge from around the world, into a global innovation leader. Our analysis suggests that this transformation is possible, though far from inevitable. To date, when we have evaluated how well Chinese companies commercialise new ideas and use them to raise market share and profits and to compete around the world, the picture has been decidedly mixed. China has become a strong innovator in areas such as consumer electronics and construction equipment. Yet in others—creating new drugs or designing automobile engines, for example—the country still isn’t globally competitive. That’s true even though every year it spends more than US$200 billion on research (second only to the United States), turns out close to 30,000 PhDs in science and engineering, and leads the world in patent applications (more than 820,000 in 2013). When we look ahead, though, we see broad swaths of opportunity. Our analysis suggests that by 2025, such new innovation opportunities could contribute $1.0 trillion to $2.2 trillion a year to the Chinese economy—or equivalent to up to 24% of total GDP growth. To achieve this goal, China must continue to transform the manufacturing sector, particularly through digitisation, and the service sector, through rising connectivity and internet enablement. Additional productivity gains would come from progress in science- and engineering-based innovation and improvements in the operations of companies as they adopt modern business methods. To develop a clearer view of this potential, we identified
China has become a strong innovator in areas such as consumer electronics and construction equipment. 时，我们发现情况颇为复杂。中国已是消费性电子产品和 施工设备等领域的创新强国；但是在新药研制或汽车发电 机设计等其它领域，仍不具备全球竞争力。即便每年中国 的研究支出超过2000亿美元（仅次于美国）、理工科博士 产出将近30,000名、专利申请领先世界（2013年超过 820,000项），事实仍然如此，不容乐观。 不过，展望未来，不少领域仍颇具机会。我们分析认为， 到2025年，新型创新机会每年将会对中国经济贡献1至2.2 万亿美元——或相当于GDP总增长的24%。为实现这一目 标，中国必须贯彻落实制造业改革（尤其通过数字化）和 服务业改革（通过提升经济的互动连通性及互联网支持推
FIGURE 1: CHINESE INDUSTRIES: ACTUAL VS EXPECTED PERFORMANCE IN INNOVATION 图一：中国行业：实际创新表现与预期创新表现对比图 (BASED ON CHINA’S SHARE OF GLOBAL GDP1), NUMBER OF INDUSTRIES = 31
SOURCE: IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT; INTERNATIONAL DATA CORPORATION; ANNUAL REPORTS; MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE ANALYSIS
（根据中国占全球国民生产总值），行业数量 = 31
ABOVE FAIR SHARE
9
高于公平份额
BELOW FAIR SHARE
3
3
3
4
5
4
EFFICIENCY DRIVEN
CUSTOMER FOCUSED
ENGINEERING BASED
SCIENCE BASED
低于公平份额
效益驱动
消费者主导
工程为基础
FOUR INNOVATION ARCHETYPES 四类创新原型
China’s share was 12% in 2013 1中国在2013年的份额为12％
1
3 8 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
科学为基础
COVER STORY
封面故事
动体系）。另外，科学与工程创新的发展以及企业运营管 理的改良（采用现代化的经营方式）也将促进生产力进一 步提升。 为对这一潜力有更明确的了解，我们确定了四类创新原 型：消费者主导、效益驱动、工程为基础和科学为基础。 然后，我们将某些个体行业的实际全球收益与我们预期中 国在全球GDP中所占的比重（2013年为12%）进行对比。 如图1所示，在家用电器、互联网软件和服务业、太阳能电 池板以及施工机械等行业，依靠消费者主导和效益驱动创 新的中国企业表现相对较好。 但是，根据分析，在以科学为基础的任何行业（如品牌 药品），中国企业均非全球领袖；在以工程为基础的行业， 结果有所不同：中国高速列车表现卓越，但是尚不及其汽 车制造业所产生的GDP份额。本文中，我们将从这两个强 劲产业着手对现阶段状况及四类创新的未来展开论述。
>$200 billion China’s yearly spend on research. 每年中国的研究支出超过 2000亿美元。
four innovation archetypes: customer-focused, efficiencydriven, engineering-based, and science-based. We then compared the actual global revenues of individual industries with what we would expect them to generate given China’s share of global GDP (12% in 2013). As Figure 1 shows, Chinese companies that rely on customer focused and efficiency-driven innovation—in industries such as household appliances, internet software and services, solar panels, and construction machinery— perform relatively well. However, Chinese companies are not yet global leaders in any of the science-based industries (such as branded pharmaceuticals) that we analysed. In engineering-based industries, the results are inconsistent: China excels in high-speed trains but gets less than its GDP-based share from auto manufacturing. In this article, we’ll describe the state of play and the outlook in these four categories, starting with the two outperformers.
1. 消费者主导的创新：中国的商业化机制 中国经济增长得益于其庞大的消费者市场，有助于企业 迅速大规模地实现创新思想的商业化。即便是网络游戏等 相对规模较小的市场，其产出也超过土耳其或泰国的汽车 制造业。中国企业已经学会如何了解其国家快速城市化的 需求，以及如何扩大新产品和服务的规模以迅速满足相关 需求。 家用电器及其它日用品生产商是中国第一批消费者主导 创新的主力军。它们的创新在于“足够好”的产品，如冰 箱和电视机等。但是，这些产品的提供已不足以助其占领 更多的消费者市场。一些企业（如智能手机厂商小米等）
1. CUSTOMER-FOCUSED INNOVATION: THE CHINESE COMMERCIALISATION MACHINE
China benefits from the sheer size of its consumer market, which helps companies to commercialise new ideas quickly and on a large scale; even a relatively small market like online gaming is bigger than the auto industry in Turkey or Thailand. Chinese companies have learned how to read the requirements of their rapidly urbanising country and to scale up new products and services quickly to meet them. Manufacturers of appliances and other household goods dominated the first wave of customer-focused innovators in China. Their innovations were “good enough” products such as refrigerators and TV sets. But these offerings no longer suffice to gain a growing share of consumers. Companies like smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi are responding with cheaper and better products designed to offer hardware features as good as those from global brands but priced for the Chinese market. Like other customerfocused innovators in China, Xiaomi also uses the massive 商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 39
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封面故事
则以更为价廉物美的产品作出市场响应：其产品硬件功能 consumer market as a collaborator, rapidly refining its 可与全球品牌媲美，但是价格本土化。与中国市场的其它 offerings through online feedback. Internet service 消费者主导创新的企业一样，小米也将中国庞大的消费者 providers are another hotbed of customer-focused 市场视为“合作者”而善加利用，通过网络反馈迅速对其 innovation. Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent have become global 产品予以优化完善。网络服务提供商是消费者主导创新的 leaders in online services, largely thanks to their success in 另一温床。阿里巴巴、百度和腾讯均已成为网络服务领域 the enormous Chinese market. 的全球领导者，这在很大程度上得益于其在庞大的中国市 Customer-focused innovation could reshape large swaths 场的成功。 of China’s service sector, where productivity lags behind 消费者主导的创新能重塑生产力滞后于发达国家的中国 that of its counterparts in developed economies. The 服务业。政府于2015年年初公布“互联网+”倡议来推动 government already is pushing to modernise traditional 传统商业的现代化。服务业的进一步普及（例如，农村病 businesses through its Internet Plus initiative, announced 患健康状况的远程监控）、商品与服务质量的提高（金融 in early 2015. Innovations are needed to expand access to 与教育产品的多样化选择和客户化）以及运营管理的优化 services (for example, remotely monitoring the health of （众包物流）都需要创新。中国企业也将有机会运用其在消 rural patients), to improve the quality of offerings (greater 费者主导的创新领域的技术实现在其它新兴市场销售的领 choice and customisation in financial and educational 先地位。 products), and to optimise operations (crowd-sourced logistics). Chinese companies will also have opportunities 2. 效益驱动的创新：生态系统的优势 to use their skills in customer-focused innovation to take a 在制造业领域，中国广阔的生态系统为效益驱动的创新 lead in selling to other emerging markets. 提供了他国难以抗衡的大环境。中国有全球最大的、最为 集中的供应商基地，大量的制造业劳动力资源，以及现代 2. EFFICIENCY-DRIVEN INNOVATION: 化的物流基础设施。所有这些优势使得中国的制造业厂商 THE ECOSYSTEM ADVANTAGE 得以在一些以知识为基础的重要制造业类型（如电气设备、 In manufacturing, China’s extensive ecosystem has 施工设备和太阳能电池板）名列前茅。 provided an unmatched environment for efficiency-driven 今天，中国企业运用灵活的制造方法、标准设计和灵敏 innovation. The country has the world’s largest and most 的自动化等各种先进的现代化方法提高效益。例如，服装 highly concentrated supplier base, a massive manufacturing
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workforce, and a modern logistics infrastructure. These advantages give Chinese manufacturers a lead in some important knowledge-based manufacturing categories, such as electrical equipment, construction equipment, and solar panels. Today, Chinese companies improve their efficiency with a variety of cutting-edge approaches, including agile manufacturing, modular design, and flexible automation. The apparel manufacturer Everstar, for example, uses automated equipment and online design and e-commerce systems that help consumers to customise designs for clothing and receive finished goods within 72 hours. China is also pioneering the use of open manufacturing platforms. The challenges are mounting, however. As wages rise, the country becomes less competitive for the most laborintensive work. At the same time, a worldwide transition is under way toward a new kind of manufacturing, sometimes called Industry 4.0: a much more intense digital linkage of manufacturing components, processes, and logistics. As a result, Chinese companies will face pressure to improve their performance in utilising assets, matching supply with demand, and controlling quality. Success will depend on how well China can exploit the scale of today’s manufacturing ecosystems and clusters to extend their benefits beyond individual factories through digitally linked networks. Some efforts are under way to mobilise rapid, flexible manufacturing. In Guangdong province, for example, manufacturers have set up joint platforms to share the benefits of R&D and operations among companies in the same clusters. Elsewhere, companies are looking at ways to mass-customise products by combining flexible manufacturing with the aggregation of a huge Internet consumer base. New manufacturing gains may also emerge from the aggressive use of robots, which could make China’s huge pool of semiskilled factory workers more effective. Entrepreneurs are poised to play a bigger role. In
58 gigawatts China’s planned nuclear power installed capacity by 2020. 中国政府提出建设核电站以实现2020年之前 总装机容量达到58亿瓦的远大计划。
A new generation of high-speed trains...has been China’s equivalent of the Apollo space program in scale and complexity. 企业爱斯达服饰采用自动化的设备与网络设计和电子商务 系统帮助消费者进行服装设计定制，实现制成品72小时内 送达。中国正力争成为利用开放式制造业平台的先锋。 但是，挑战和问题也不断出现。工资上涨，劳动密集型 行业竞争力下降。同时，全球工业向一种新型的制造业模 式（所谓工业4.0）转变：制造、加工和物流之间的数字化 连接更为紧密。因此，中国企业将面临改良资产运用、供 需匹配和质量控制等方面的巨大压力。成功与否将取决于 中国利用其制造业生态系统和集群的程度，是否能通过数 字化网络将其效益由个别厂家延伸到整个行业。 为实现快捷灵敏的制造方法，已经采取了一些努力举措。 例如在广东省，制造商们联合建立了共享集群企业间研发 与运营优势的平台。其它地方的企业也正在寻求利用庞大 的网络消费者群体通过联合进行灵敏制造实现产品大规模 定制的办法。机器人的积极应用也有望成为制造业新的赢 利点，协助中国大批半熟练车间工人产生更大的经济效益。 企业家们将肩负更大的使命。在深圳，一个由零部件供 应商、设计服务、企业孵化器和外包装配单元组成的丰富 的生态系统帮助初创企业实现产品的原创开发，并迅速提 升其全球接单的制造能力。 3. “学习型行业”以工程为基础的创新 中国经济在以工程为基础的创新领域的进展喜忧参半。 可以发现，中国市场的最成功例子大多在于利用国家和地 方政府创造的本土需求，促成国际企业知识转移，从而培 植积极奋进本土产业的发展。中国的高速铁路（根据麦 肯锡估计，中国企业占有全球铁路设备领域营业收入的 41%）、风电和电信设备等产业就成功地运用了这一模式。 2008年，铁道部启动了发展新一代高速列车的重大计 划——一项自上而下的全国性计划，就规模和复杂程度而 言，堪称中国的“阿波罗太空计划”。据估计，自此中国 在该领域全球市场的占有率达到86%。中国企业成功运用
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H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 4 1
PRESTIGE LIMOUSINE HIRE Australia wide
You’ve been in the luxury chauffeured car business since 1989. What has changed in consumer tastes since then? What has changed is the demand for high end luxury vehicles. When I started in 1989, the fleet was predominantly Ford Fairlane and LTDs. Today, the majority of the fleet is European luxury sedans like Mercedes & BMW. The request for stretch limousines has also decreased and we are seeing the use of luxury people movers such as Mercedes Benz Viano and Sprinter for groups.
自1989年起您开始从事豪华轿车租赁及专职司机 的服务，这些年来客人需求有哪些转变？ 客人们对高端豪华汽车的需求有所改变。1989年刚开始的时候，车 队中车款主要是福特的Fairlane和LTD。而今，车款主要是欧洲豪 华房车如梅赛德斯 - 奔驰和宝马。客人们对于加长版礼宾车的需 求也有所下降，更倾向于梅赛德斯 - 奔驰唯雅诺和斯宾特这一类 的豪华旅车。
Has there been a significant take-up of your services in the Chinese community? Which cars are most popular and for what kinds of occasions? Yes. The growth area is definitely from the Chinese community. Our Chinese clients understand quality and value the high end luxury brands. Most popular are the luxury European sedans, especially Mercedes Benz long wheel base, usually for corporate or business executives. For social events and leisure touring, I would have to say the Rolls-Royce or Bentley.
你们的服务是否受中国人的青睐？最受欢迎的是 哪款车型、哪类活动？ 中国市场占的比重越来越大。我们的中国客户注重质量并且看重 高端奢华品牌。最受欢迎的是欧洲豪华房车，特别是梅赛德斯 - 奔 驰的长轴距版本，通常用于企业或接送行政人员。至于交际活动 和悠闲旅游，最受欢迎的则是劳斯莱斯或宾利。
You also offer sports models and convertibles, which cars are most in demand right now and why? The Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead is the ultimate open top motoring car
and it gets used extensively during summer in Sydney. The Drophead is being booked on a regular basis for events and festivals or to impress that someone special.
becoming popular for corporate travellers. We expect this segment to keep growing.
您还提供运动车型和敞篷车，哪一款比较受欢 迎？原因是什么？
对于那些想要奢华旅游同时注重环保的客人，你 现在也有混合动力汽车提供使用。这方便的需求 大吗？
劳斯莱斯软顶敞篷车是顶级敞篷车型中的杰出代表，在悉尼夏季 大受欢迎。软顶敞篷车经常被租用于各类活动和节日，或是为了在 特别的人面前留下深刻的印象。
Chauffeuring is more than just driving a car. What are some elements of the service you offer that are important but may go unnoticed? Absolutely. Chauffeuring is more than just driving a car. Our Chauffeurs develop unique relationships with their clients to the point of becoming trusted confidantes and advisors. Many of our high end corporate clients use the car as their office so discretion and confidentiality is paramount. It’s not unusual for a chauffeur to provide a pseudo concierge service, especially for interstate clients, doing research on schools, houses, buying a car. A good chauffeur will read and understand an individual’s needs and adapt their behaviour accordingly.
专职司机所提供的服务不仅仅在于驾驶汽车而 已，服务中有哪些容易被忽略掉的元素？ 专职司机当然不仅是负责开车，我们的专职司机跟客人建立良好 的关系，成为他们值得信赖的倾诉对象以及为他们提供建议。我 们的客人中有一大部分是高级企业，他们在车上办公，因此高度保 密非常重要。专职司机通常也会提供礼宾服务，特别是针对跨境客 人以及寻找学校、房子或车子的客人。优秀的专职司机会留意及理 解客人的需要，并且迎合他们的行事方式与习惯。
You are now offering hybrid cars for people who want their luxury travel to be green also. How strong is the demand for this offering? There is definitely a growing demand for environmentally friendly travel. Take the range of Lexus vehicles on our fleet – they are all hybrid Vehicles and
环保旅游的需求日益增长。我们车队中一系列的凌志汽车全都是 混能车，越来越受商务旅客欢迎。我们预计这个市场会保持增长。
Could you tell us about your “group travel” options and what luxury features come in, say, the eight-seater Mercedes Benz Viano Mini Coach? All our mini-coaches are leather appointed, air conditioned with flexible seating configuration and wifi. For example, in the Mercedes Benz Viano, seats can be forward or rear facing, which is very handy for groups. We also supply luggage trailers for excess baggage and more importantly, we supply child restraints for all ages to comply with Australian safety regulation.
你能告诉我们“团体旅游”车型有哪些选择，并且 它们的豪华配置，比如8人座位的梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 唯雅诺商务车？ 我们全部的商务车都采用真皮内饰、配备空调、无线上网功能以及 灵活多变的座椅配置。比如梅赛德斯 - 奔驰唯雅诺的座椅可以朝 前朝后放置，方便团体搭乘。我们还提供行李拖车，更重要的是， 我们还根据澳大利亚安全条例为各个年龄层的孩子提供儿童约束 装置。
JOHN BARTOLOTTA Managing Director, Royale Limousines
COVER STORY
封面故事
Shenzhen, a rich ecosystem of component suppliers, design services, business incubators, and outsourced assembly capacity has helped startups prototype products and scale up global manufacturing businesses quickly.
3. ENGINEERING-BASED INNOVATION IN ‘LEARNING INDUSTRIES’
China has had mixed success with engineering-based innovation. The best performers are found in Chinese markets where motivated domestic industries are nurtured by national and local governments that create local demand, push for innovation, and facilitate the transfer of knowledge from foreign players. China has used this formula successfully in high-speed rail (Chinese companies have a 41% share of the global railroad-equipment revenues, according to McKinsey estimates), wind power, and telecommunications equipment. In 2008, the Ministry of Railways launched a major program to develop a new generation of high-speed trains—a top-down, nationwide effort that has been China’s equivalent of the Apollo space program in scale and complexity. We estimate that the country has accounted for 86% of global growth in this market since then. Using technology transfers from overseas partners as a knowledge base, Chinese companies tailor their offerings to local requirements, such as terrain and temperature conditions, through incremental innovation. Learning and innovation have been slower to come in automotive manufacturing. To date, most domestic Chinese carmakers have relied on platforms from their global partners or on designs from outside firms to bring products to market quickly. Thanks to exploding domestic demand and strong profit streams from joint ventures, they have felt little pressure to innovate. Deregulation, a rapid increase in China’s base of engineering talent, and continued high levels of government investment promise to make engineering-based companies more motivated and effective innovators in the future. In some sectors, such as nuclear power, explicit state support will continue to be critical. China has an ambitious government plan to build nuclear plants resulting in a total installed capacity of 58 gigawatts by 2020, which can support its goal of obtaining 20% of its energy from non– fossil fuel sources by 2030. In other industries, such as medical equipment, the private sector will drive innovation. Mindray, United Imaging Healthcare, and other smaller new Chinese players will continue to make inroads in market categories (for instance, CT scanners and MRI machines) that foreign suppliers now dominate. Government programs to subsidise purchases of Chinese-made equipment by the country’s hospitals are providing a boost even as a new generation of medical entrepreneurs draws from global knowledge and partnerships.
44 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
海外合伙人的技术转让作为知识基地，通过渐进性创新针 对当地需求（如地形和温度条件等）调整其产品供应。 汽车制造业的学习与创新则姗姗来迟。迄今为止，大多 数中国本土汽车制造商仍然依靠其全球合伙人的投资平台 或国外企业的设计来迅速适应市场。得益于国内需求的膨 胀与合资企业的丰厚利润回报，他们尚未面临较大的创新 压力。 中国行业政策放宽，工程人才库的快速增长，以及政府 不断的高水平投资，会确保以工程为基础的公司在未来成 功为积极有效的创新企业。在核电等某些产业，明确的国 家支持将继续发挥重要作用。中国政府提出建设核电站以 实现2020年之前总装机容量达到58亿瓦的远大计划。这一 举措将助其实现2030年之前非矿物燃料能源占到能源总量 20%的目标。 而在医疗设备等其它行业，将由私营企业驱动创新。迈 瑞医疗，联影医疗以及其它新兴小规模中国企业将继续进 入目前由外国供应商主导的市场（如：CT扫描仪和核磁共 振成像机器等）。纵然一些新兴医疗机构向海外合伙人学 习，借鉴国际知识，政府对购买国产设备的医院予以补贴 的计划仍然为相关行业提供了发展的动力。
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4. SCIENCE-BASED INNOVATION: NOVEL CHINESE APPROACHES
A massive government push to raise R&D spending, train more scientists, and file more patents has yet to give China a lead in science-based innovation. The slow progress has a number of explanations—not least that this type of work takes a long time to pay off and requires an effective regulator to protect intellectual property. Huge investments by government and the private sector to shepherd projects from the lab to commercial deployment are needed, as well. What’s more, despite the large number of Chinese students trained in scientific and technical fields, companies struggle to find capable talent. The government is addressing some of these obstacles. For example, recently launched reforms to the drug-review process could reduce the time to get a new drug to patients by two or more years. Efforts such as the Thousand Talents program bring overseas Chinese to the country to launch their own companies and work in scientific organisations and universities. Even as these reforms play out, Chinese innovators are adopting novel approaches—for instance, using the country’s massive market size and huge pool of low-cost researchers to industrialise and speed up experimentation and data collection. One such innovator, BeiGene, gained ground in the biotech industry by developing drugs to treat cancers and other diseases. The company has accelerated the drug-discovery process by deploying a large-scale drug-testing team, testing compounds on human tissue (such as cancerous tumour samples) during the preclinical phase to get early indications of issues that might arise in
46 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
20%
of China’s power is planned to come from non-fossil-fuel sources by 2030. 中国将实现2030年之前非矿 物燃料能源占到能源总量 20%的目标。
4. 以科学为基础的创新：中国特色的新方法 政府大力提倡增加研发投入，培养更多科研人才，涌现 更多的专利，但是此举并未让中国跻身以科学为基础的创 新前沿。进展不快的原因各有说法——尤其因为这是一项 长期努力方能成功的工程，并需要有效的监管机构对知识 产权予以保护。当然，还需要政府的大力投入以及私营产 业从实验室研发到商业化应用的全程维护。此外，尽管中 国科技领域已经培养出大量科技类大学生，但对企业而言， 优秀实用的人才仍一将难求。 中国政府也正在克服这些障碍。例如，最近启动了药品 审批过程改革，可将新药上市供病患使用的时间缩短两到 三年；再如“千人计划”，引进海外华裔人才归国创新创 业或者在华科研机构或高校就业。 在推进上述有关改革之外，中国的创新者也在尝试新 的办法，例如，利用中国庞大的市场规模和大量的低成本 研究人员启动工业化，加快实验与数据采集。百济神州
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EARLY-STAGE INVESTING HAS RISEN 14-FOLD SINCE 2009, DOMINATED BY COMPUTER AND IT DEALS 早期投资从2009年至今已翻了14倍，电脑及信息技术占主导地位
SOURCE: ZERO2IPO REPORT; ASIAN VENTURE CAPITAL JOURNAL; MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE ANALYSIS
INVESTMENT AMOUNT 投资金额 %; $million 百万美元
ANGEL INVESTMENT
VENTURE INVESTMENT (EARLY)
天使投资
创业投资 （早期）
VENTURE INVESTMENT (OTHER) 创业投资（其他）
100%=
2,714
7 ,367
17,409
0
1
3
16
20
FINANCIAL SERVICES
2%
LEISURE/ENTERTAINMENT
2%
MEDICAL
3%
金融服务
31
休闲/娱乐
9
医疗
84
79
OTHER
66
其他
COMPUTER-RELATED AND ELECTRONICS
与电脑有关及电子品 2009
2012
2014
IT
信息技术
150
443
1,886
5%
FOUR INNOVATION ARCHETYPES 四类创新原型 %
20% 68%
NUMBER OF EARLY-STAGE INVESTMENTS1 早期投资的数量1 1
Including angel and early-stage investment.
2
Based on investment amount of disclosed deals.
human testing, and capitalising on access to China’s large pool of patients. In genomics research, another company, BGI, is deploying massive scale (2,000 PhDs and more than 200 gene-sequencing machines) to power its way through biotech problems.
The extent and speed of China’s advances in innovation will have significant implications for the country’s growth and competitiveness and for the types of jobs, products, and services available to the Chinese people. They will also have powerful consequences for multinationals (competing at home and abroad with Chinese companies), some of which are now using China as an R&D base for global innovation. Fortunately, that isn’t a zero-sum game: a more innovative China ought to be good for a global economy that seeks new sources of growth. This McKinsey Quarterly article is based on the new McKinsey Global Institute report The China Effect on Global Innovation, available for download at www.mckinsey.com/ insights. The authors wish to thank McKinsey’s Jason Lee for his contributions to this article.
NOTE: Number may not sum due to rounding.
就是这样一个创新者，通过研发抗癌药品及其它药品在 生物技术行业占得一席之地。该公司成立大规模药品试 验团队，在临床治疗之前的人体组织（如癌性肿瘤样本） 进行药品试验从而就人体试验可能出现的问题得出早期 征兆，并且充分利用中国广大的病患群体。基因研究 方面，另一家企业——华大基因也是通过大规模部 署（2000名博士以及200多台基因测序仪器）攻克生物 技术难关。
中国创新发展的程度和速度对其经济增长与竞争力乃至未 来为中国提供的就业机会、产品和服务类型等都意义深远； 对在国内外与中国企业竞争的跨国公司（其中一些以中国 作为其全球创新的研发基地）也有着重要的影响。幸运的 是，这并非一方获益、一方受损的博弈：在全球寻找新经 济增长点的环境下，一个更具创新力的中国必将有益于全 球经济。 麦肯锡季刊中的本文基于麦肯锡全球研究院有关中国对全 球创新影响的最新报告。登陆网站www.mckinsey.com/ insights可供查看下载。 作者也感谢麦肯锡公司Jason Lee对本文的贡献。 商道
H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 47
TECHNOLOGY
科技
By Edward Tse 作者：谢祖墀
商业环境： 巨大、巨变、巨复杂
CHINA’S DISRUPTORS
China’s economic scale and dynamic business environment make it the main contender with the United States to produce a rival to Google, Facebook or Twitter. In this excerpt from Edward Tse’s new book China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies Are Changing the Rules of Business, Tse looks at some of the key milestones China’s home-grown e-commerce giants have passed, and how they will likely shape global consumer trends. 中国的经济实力及其生机勃勃的商业环境令中国市场有能力培植与美国一争高 下，与谷歌、脸书、推特等公司分庭抗礼的竞争强手。本文摘自谢祖墀（Edward Tse）新书《中国科技新世代的革命者：阿里巴巴、小米、腾讯等公司如何改变商 业规则》。作者检视了中国本土的电商巨无霸不断取得的重大成就，并探讨为何他 们可能引领全球消费者大趋势的潜力。
T
o understand the achievements of these entrepreneurs, we need look no further than China’s business environment. China is the only country with the economic scale and robust activity to match that of the United States. Unlike the United States, however, China is still at a relatively early stage of economic development. Its markets have progressively opened wider, and much basic infrastructure has been put in place, but its business environment is still raw and volatile, with a rate of change and pace of activity that is rivalled possibly only by Silicon Valley. Because of the size of its market, China is the only country likely to produce a rival to Google, Facebook, or Twitter just by building on business established in its home country. Tencent’s WeChat, a social networking tool similar at its core to U.S.-based messaging service WhatsApp, had nearly 440 million users in mid 2014 (up from 240 million a year earlier), not far behind WhatsApp’s 500 million. 48 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Alibaba, likewise, thanks to the nearly US$250 billion of business conducted through its various web sites in 2013 (a figure forecast to rise to around $350 billion in 2014), looks set to become the world’s first non-American e‑commerce giant. China will also shape worldwide trends with physical as well as virtual goods. In 2010, it overtook the United States to become the world’s biggest manufacturer. As products made in China become more sophisticated and companies embrace more domestically developed technology, it will increasingly be Chinese goods and Chinese consumers that set global standards and preferences. If, as is likely in the near future, Chinese entrepreneurs create a $50 smartphone, or cost-effective solar energy, or mass-produced electric cars, then these offerings will rapidly appear around the world. On top of its scale and rate of change, China is also hugely complex. Its entrepreneurs have to cope with a country whose markets are not 商道
要
理解这些企业家的成就，我们还要进一 步看看中国的商业环境。要论经济规模 及活跃度，中国是唯一能与美国相提并论的。 不过与美国不同的是，中国相对而言尚处于发 展初期。虽然市场日益开放，基础设施逐步完 善，但商业环境仍然比较原始，并且不稳定。 可以这么说，中国商业环境所经历的改变和进 步，只有硅谷能与之比肩。 由于国内市场规模庞大，所以只要根植 国内市场，就能培养出足以与Google（谷 歌）、Facebook（脸书网）和Twitter（推特 网）等大公司相抗衡的企业，这恐怕也只有 中国才能做到了。腾讯公司的微信（与美国 的WhatsApp软件相似）在2013年年中拥有 2.4亿用户，而在2014年年中，这个数字已经 接近4.4亿。要知道，这距离WhatsApp的 5 亿用户已经不远。同样，2013 年，阿里巴巴 各种线上平台的总体营收约为2500亿美元 （据预测，2014年将达到3500亿美元），看 来其对于成为美国之外的第一电商巨头志在 必得。 不仅如此，在实体经济领域，中国也将引 导世界潮流。2010年，中国已经超过美国，成
TECHNOLOGY
科技
FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF CHINESE COMPANIES BY OWNERSHIP, 2003 AND 2013 图1：2003年及2013年中国企业拥有权数据图
2003
MILLION
2013
50
440
million
45 40 35 30 25
China’s WeChat had nearly 440 million users in mid-2014.
20 15
在2014 年年中微信用户 已经接近4.4亿。
10 5 0
PRIVATE COMPANIES 私营公司
PROPRIETORSHIPS 独资经营
just large and fast-growing, but also at very different stages of development both in different regions of China and often within the same region. Given the speed with which Chinese buying power is rising, products, technologies, and business models often leapfrog entire stages of development. In poorer regions, for example, people can find themselves going from shopping in markets and small family-owned stores to using smartphones to shop online with no intermediate stage. Chinese consumers, presented with a bewildering range of products
Most Chinese show little brand loyalty, whether shopping for everyday goods or bigticket items.
STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES 国有企业
FOREIGN COMPANIES 外资公司
from domestic, Asian, and multinational brands, are also perhaps the world’s most fickle customers. Studies of consumer behaviour have repeatedly found that most Chinese show little brand loyalty, whether shopping for everyday goods or big-ticket items. A 2014 survey of 2,400 drivers carried out by the Boston Consulting Group, for example, found that three-quarters planned to switch brands when buying their next car. And yet, unique as China is in both the size and complexity of its market, I also believe that it is in many ways a harbinger of how the world’s business environment will evolve. The main reason for this is technology, especially the ways in which the internet is bringing down barriers between industries and increasing cross-sector competition. To survive, businesses must look to find new sources of advantage wherever they can, even if this means moving beyond their traditional areas of expertise. Because of the relatively undeveloped nature of its economy, the competitive landscape in China is more fluid than it is in Europe, North America, or Japan. Retailing, for example, is being turned on its head as e‑commerce allows shoppers, even in China’s most remote regions, to gain access to goods long before stores can build out chains of brick-and-mortar outlets. The country’s e‑commerce giants are moving into finance, offering money-market products that offer higher interest rates than banks can. Chinese 商道
为全球最大制造业国家。随着“中国制造”变 得更加精密，中国企业拥有更多自主技术，中 国的产品和消费者将决定全球的产品标准和消 费者偏好。设想一下，假如在不久的将来，中 国企业家能创造出价值50美元的智能手机或是 低成本的太阳能电源，或是批量生产的电动汽 车，这些产品必将很快火遍全球。 和经济规模巨大、市场环境巨变相伴的，还 有中国经济极其复杂的一面。不仅是企业家们 要面对规模庞大且快速成长的市场，而且不同 地区的发展阶段也各不相同，甚至同一地区的 发展也有所差异。此外，由于中国人购买力的 快速提高，产品、技术、商业模式往往都会呈 现出跳跃式发展。例如，在一些较落后地区， 消费者原来在市场和便利店买东西，之后他们 就直接开始使用智能手机在网上购物，两种方 式之间并没有过渡阶段。来自中国国内、亚洲 其他地区和世界各地的品牌涌入中国市场，使 中国消费者眼花缭乱。有了这么多选择，他们 成了也许是世界上最善变的消费者群体。不同 的消费者行为研究一再表明，多数中国人缺缺 乏品牌忠诚度，不管是对日用品还是奢侈品都 是如此。例如，2014年，波士顿咨询公司对 2400名司机做了一项调查，结果发现，3/4的 消费者表示，在购买下一辆车时将会尝试其他 品牌。 中国市场兼具庞大、复杂两个特点，这是其 独特之处。不过我也相信，在某种程度上，它 也在很多方面预示着未来世界商业环境的发展 方向。之所以这样说，是考虑到技术的作用， 尤其是互联网技术，它降低了行业间门槛，促 进了跨部门竞争。为了生存，企业必须绞尽脑 汁寻找新的竞争优势，即使这可能意味着要涉 足自己并不熟悉的领域。而且，恰恰是因为中 国经济相对不发达，所以相比于欧洲、北美和 日本市场，中国的跨部门竞争反而更加具有流 动性。例如，中国的电子商务已经颠覆了零售 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 4 9
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FIGURE 2: REVENUES BY COMPANY TYPE, 1998-2013 图2：1998至2013年收入总额（按公司类型分布） STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES 国有企业
TRILLION YUAN
PRIVATE AND OTHER NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES 私营等非国有企业
80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00
1998
1999
76.2 billion RMB
2000
2001
2002
Alibaba’s revenue for fiscal year 2015. 阿里巴巴2015年财 年总收入为人民币 762亿元。
companies are constantly stretching from their established territories into new areas. Computer giant Lenovo and telecom equipment maker Huawei are both striving to become global smartphone players. Broad Group, a maker of industrial and commercial air-conditioning equipment, now also makes buildings using prefabricated units. BYD, which established itself as a maker of batteries for mobile phones, has now emerged as a viable automaker. When companies struggle to hold on to any form of competitive advantage, sources of long-term profit become harder to find and retain. As Zhang Ruimin, CEO of Haier Group, likes to point out, companies can no longer think about establishing a defensible position for themselves and their products; instead, they can only think of creating the means to transform themselves over and over again. Through the 1990s and 2000s, a lot of 50 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Chinese companies set themselves the goal of catching up with multinationals, often benchmarking themselves against what they saw as Western “best practices.” Today, having closed the gap, many have realised that they will need to figure out their own paths forward. This is leading to much experimentation, in particular in the area of business strategy, where China’s complex, fast-changing, and often ambiguous business environment is making companies rethink how they plan for the future. Rather than setting goals or targets, companies are instead concentrating on ways of strengthening their capabilities to improvise and innovate in the face of immediate challenges and opportunities. To be successful, entrepreneurs have to seize on the advantages of China’s scale and dynamism to make their companies fastgrowing, powerful, and flexible, and build around the idea of reinventing themselves repeatedly. Almost all of the Chinese entrepreneurs we’ll meet in this book have an extraordinary openness to outside ideas and an increasing willingness to bring in resources from outside China, especially in the form of people with the right kinds of expertise. Excerpted from CHINA’S DISRUPTORS: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies Are Changing the Rules of Business by Edward Tse with permission of Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. Copyright © Edward Tse, 2015. 商道
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
业的格局：即使购买者身处最偏远的地区，也 能更方便地买到商品，比传统实体店的销售链 更为快捷。同时，中国的电子商务巨头也正在 进军金融领域，提供比银行利息收益更高的货 币市场产品。通常，中国企业会从现有业务领 域扩张到另一个新领域。比如，计算机巨头联 想、电信设备制造商华为都力图在全球智能手 机市场上立足。远大集团作为工业冷气、商用 空调的生产商，也在使用预制模块来修建大 楼。比亚迪从手机电池生产商起家，现在已经 转型成为汽车制造商。 当企业将精力全部集中于维系现有竞争优 势，其长期的利润来源的开发和稳定就会成为 问题。正如张瑞敏所说，企业的出发点不应该 是怎样防御性地维持现有优势，相反，它们必 须不断积极进取、创新求变。 在20 世纪90 年代和21 世纪初，许多中国企 业将赶超跨国公司作为目标，它们往往以西方 企业的最佳实践作为努力标杆。今天，随着与 西方企业差距的缩小，许多中国企业家意识 到，他们更需要找到属于自己的前进路线。为 此，中国企业家进行了大量尝试，尤其是在商 业战略方面。中国市场的变化迅速而复杂，商 业规则也往往模糊不清，这种环境使得企业总 是在反思未来的发展。在这种环境下，公司不 再设定具体的目标，而是集中精力提升随机应 变和开拓创新的能力，以应对往往不期而至的 挑战和机遇。 企业家要想获得成功，就必须利用中国市场 的巨大和巨变，将其转化为优势，从而将自己 的企业打造成为快速成长、强大而不失灵活 性、随时准备改变自己的市场参与者。本书涉 及的企业家对外界思想的态度几乎都非常开 放，并且日益重视对国外各种资源的引进，尤 其是各个领域的急需人才。
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By Michel Brekelmans, Co-head of L.E.K. Consulting’s China practice 作者：贝明宇, L.E.K.（艾意凯） 咨询有限公司中国区业务联席总监
中国TMT行业: 科技领域投资到底有多热？
THE MONEY’S HOT IN TECH
In September 2014, Alibaba shattered global records with a US$25 billion IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. The event capped a year in which 50% of venture capital investment in China was in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) and internet space. Michel Brekelmans, Co-head of L.E.K. Consulting’s China practice, shares insights from recent strategy work on the investment shifts within the Chinese tech industry and what those shifts could mean for investors. 2014年9月，阿里巴巴以250亿美元的IPO融资额刷新了纽约证券交易所的历史记 录。阿里巴巴的IPO见证了中国风险投资行业特殊的一年，这一年中约50%的投资 额都集中在TMT（科技、媒体和通信）与互联网行业。L.E.K.（艾意凯）咨询有限公 司中国区业务联席总监贝明宇在本文中与您分享近期在中国科技行业投资方面的战 略经验，以及这一领域对投资者而言的趋势。
S
ince 2010, investors in China have been increasingly focused on the digitisation and monetisation of the consumer. China has the largest smartphone installed base in the world with over 900 million smartphone connections. This massive installed base has not only created the world’s largest market for applications, but also signalled to businesses that Chinese consumers are now positioned to engage in many aspects of life through their mobile phones. Over the last six years, the number of tech deals has grown approximately 36% a year, with a doubling of deals from 2013 to 2014. However, the recent turbulence in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the devaluation of the RMB highlights the precarious environment in which tech companies and investors interact. Despite the choppy seas, new investors are pushing forward in what is one of the few attractive sectors for investment in China. The recent increase in volume and valuations of
52 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
deals was dashed away by the recent bursting of the tech bubble in the wake of the severe stock market dip. That being said, the long term fundamentals in tech investment will largely go unchanged. We at L.E.K. see four key drivers that explain this growth. First, there has been a massive increase in available capital from both domestic and foreign sources. The amount of funds raised targeting venture capital investments in China almost doubled from US$7 billion in 2013 to US$13 billion in 2014. Second, investors have become attracted to the space based on the prior success of nowestablished tech companies in China. Tencent and Baidu laid the foundation over a decade ago as internet pioneers, with JD and Alibaba coming in after innovations in online payments took off. Now mammoth tech start-ups such as Xiaomi and Dianping are making headlines by demonstrating how private equity and venture capital technology investments are more than 商道
2
014年9月, 阿里巴巴以250亿美元的IPO融 资额刷新了纽约证券交易所的历史记录。 阿里巴巴的IPO见证了中国风险投资行业特殊 的一年，这一年中约50%的投资额都集中在 TMT（科技、媒体和通信）与互联网行业。 自2010年以来，在向数字化经济转型与消费 者对新兴技术的高接受度的带动下，中国的投 资者越来越关注高科技领域的投资机遇。中国 拥有超过十亿的智能手机用户，是全球最大的 市场。居高不下的安装量不仅预示着中国是世 界上最大的手机应用市场，也向企业们发出了 信号：手机已贯穿于中国消费者生活的方方 面面。 但是不断攀升的估值并不总是意味着颠覆性 的创新，一些初创企业的内在价值显然无法支 撑其虚高的价格。要真正理解这一轮投资热潮 以及它是否会退去，我们需要深入观察中国的 科技行业，了解是谁在投资着什么，以及他们 是如何投资的。 在这篇L.E.K.的领袖观点中，我们将分享近 期在中国科技行业投资方面的战略经验，以及 这一领域对投资者而言的趋势。
INVESTMENT
投资
INTERNET / TMT INVESTMENTS IN CHINA BY INVESTMENT TYPE
中国互联网／科技、媒体 、 通信（TMT）行业投资情况
Source: Zero2IPO, L.E.K. research and analysis
NUMBER OF INVESTMENTS 投资（笔） 2,000
CAGR%(2008-14) 年复合增长率％
0,800 1,600 1,400
1,896
~2,000
2014
2015 est.
CAGR%(2008-14) 年复合增长率％
VC 风投
28%
NON-PE OR VC 非风投或私募
64%
PE 私募
43%
ANNUALIZED 下半年预计投资
36%
1,200
952
1,000 800 600 400
790
816
2011
2012
469 295
297
2008
2009
200 0
2010
just distant grasps at Silicon Valley’s global leadership. Now even more western investment organisations are eager to partake in the growth. In 2014, the Carlyle Group made one of its first Chinese internet investments (US$100 million) in Ganji, an online classifieds company during Ganji’s series F round.
There has been a massive increase in available capital from domestic and foreign sources.
Third, successful entrepreneurs are becoming investors, creating a disproportionate number of specialised tech-focused funds. Banyan Capital, founded in 2013 with more than US$700 million under management, focuses exclusively on investments in the TMT space. Investors include founders and managers of Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD and Xiaomi while founding fund managers all have experience and success in investing in the tech industry. Finally, thriving communities of tech entrepreneurs are creating more investment opportunities. Cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are becoming technology hubs attracting engineers, investors and other industry professionals. Of the thirty Chinese internet and software startups that achieved billion-dollar valuations in the last 10 years, twenty of them are in Beijing, making it the second most prominent tech hub globally behind Silicon Valley.
INCREASED COMPETITION AND EVOLUTION OF INVESTORS
As investment funds have become more widely available, so has competition for opportunities to invest. Many traditional international players (most notably the Silicon Valley firms) have been well grounded in the Chinese market for several 商道
2013
科技行业投资行为 在过去的六年中，科技行业的交易数量每年以 36%的速度增长，2013-2014年更是翻了一番。 近年来交易数量与金额的增长甚至让业内人士产 生了对投资泡沫的担忧。从上图中可以看到风险 投资与私募基金在互联网/TMT行业的投资数量 增长迅速，我们发现主要有四项增长的驱动力。 首先，国内外用于投资的资本均显著增长。 除了交易量翻了一倍外，中国市场上用于风险 投资的募集资金量也从2013的70亿美元增长 到2014年的130亿美元，几乎翻了一倍。 其次，投资者们从已经颇为成功的中国高科 技公司身上看到了巨大的吸引力。从十多年前 就打下坚实基础的腾讯和百度，到在线支付模 式兴起后京东和阿里巴巴的崛起。如今更多的 从初创企业成长起来的大型互联网公司如小 米、大众点评等牢牢占据着头条新闻，他们向 世人展示着私募基金与风险投资公司的资金已 经不仅仅掌握在位于硅谷的全球高科技公司手 中了。现在更多的西方投资机构希望从快速增 长的中国互联网产业中分一杯羹。在2014 年，Carlyle集团第一次在中国投资了互联网 公司，在赶集网（一家在线分类广告信息公 司）的F轮融资中注资1亿美元。 第三，成功的企业家们逐步转型为投资者， 催生了大量的专注于互联网技术领域的基金公 司。高榕资本创立于2013年，管理着超过7亿 美元的资金，并且只投资TMT行业。这些新投 资者都是腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度、京东和小米 的创始人与管理层，且基金经理都具备在高科 技行业的成功操作经验。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 53
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INVESTMENT
投资
PROMINENT TECH HUBS, BY NUMBER OF UNICORNS (2013-2014) 全球知名科技曲扭中心
Source: Zero2IPO, L.E.K. research and analysis
NUMBER OF COMPANIES 估值十亿美元以上的互联网／软件创业公司数量
RELEVANT MARKET 相关市场
SILICON VALLEY 硅谷
57
BEIJING 北京
20
NEW YORK 纽约
8
STOCKHOLM 斯德哥尔摩
5
BERLIN 柏林
4
LOS ANGELES 洛杉矶
4
LONDON 伦敦
4
GUANGZHOU 广州
3
SHANGHAI 上海
3
HANGZHOU 杭州
2
FUZHOU 福州
1
SHENZHEN 深圳
1
US
$13
billion
Funds raised targeting venture capital investments in China in 2014. 2014年中国市场上 用于风险投资的募集 资金量。
years and have localised their teams to be successful. Increasingly we see senior deal makers spin-out from these groups and set up their own shop, often with the backing of Chinese institutional investors. Several leading local firms have emerged in recent years that often apply a less ‘rigid’ decision making process resulting in very aggressive timelines. Their model is deploy capital as fast as possible and they do typically not apply traditional investment metrics. Given the rise of intermediaries few good deals are proprietary these days. There will likely always be some players in the mix that can justify the highest valuation in an attempt to win the bid. 54 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Besides these players, funds from a range of non-traditional sources are targeting the China tech sector. New competitors, such as sovereign wealth funds, super angels and tech millionaires, are entering the market eager to take a slice of the burgeoning tech sector. Even many PE firms and institutions normally engaged in later stage investments are delving into pre-revenue assets. Many of the larger PE buyout firms have had to adjust their China investment strategy from majority buyouts to minority growth investors after they entered the China PE market 10 years ago. Now, several PE firms players are once again reinventing themselves to accommodate early stage opportunities within tech. And some sovereign wealth funds are also no longer simply acting as passive asset investors, instead they are becoming the lead partner and investing in early stage tech companies. In 2013, Temasek, Singapore’s state owned investment fund (with notable investments in Xiaomi, Alibaba, Cloudary, and Dididache) established the Enterprise Development Group (EDG) that specialises in funding new businesses and helping them grow with coaching from the Temasek private equity fund. 商道
TOP 6 GLOBAL HUBS
全球前6的科技创新枢纽中心
OTHER CHINA HUBS
中国其他科技创新枢纽中心
最后，科技创业者交际网络的蓬勃发展创造着 更多的投资机遇。北京、深圳、杭州等城市逐渐 成为吸引着工程师、投资者与其他行业专业人士 的科技枢纽中心。过去10年内，有约30家中国 互联网与软件创业公司达到了10亿美元以上的估 值，其中20家位于北京，使其成为仅次于美国硅 谷的全球第二著名的科技枢纽中心。 日趋激烈的竞争与投资者的变革 随着投资资本的广泛使用，对于投资机会的 竞争也日趋白热化。 许多传统的国际投资公司（大多数总部位于硅 谷）已经在中国市场上扎根多年，且拥有本土化 的团队。我们越来越多地看到这些公司的高层投 资者离开去创建了自己的投资公司，并且常常是 与中国投资机构的本土投资人一起合作。 近年来，几家主要的本土投资机构迅速崛 起，他们的决策过程往往不是那么“死板”， 所以投资方式也更为激进。他们的运作模式是 尽可能快的部署资本，并且不一定要采用那些 传统的投资指标。由于市场上的中间商越来越 多，高质量投资机会的获得往往是开放的，在 这样激烈的竞争下，总有一些投资机构能够用 最高的估值赢得投标。 除了这些投资机构以外，一些非传统来源的 资本正涌向中国高科技行业。新的竞争者，例 如主权财富基金，超级天使投资人和科技界富 豪逐步进入市场，并急于分一杯羹。甚至还有
INVESTMENT
投资
CHINA TECH INVESTMENT MARKET 中国科技投资市场
TMT/Internet average deal sizes doubled to
US $11.6m
TRADITIONAL PLAYERS 传统投资方
from 2013 to 2014.
Traditional strategic buyers
传统战略投资者
Established financial buyers
Spin-off from established financial buyers
知名金融投资者
知名金融投资者 的派生基金
NEW POOLS OF MONEY 新兴投资方
Joint funds 联合基金
Government funds
Sovereign wealth funds
政府基金
GROWING DEAL SIZES AND VALUATIONS
With more funds targeting a limited number of good deals, some deal sizes have been climbing to the point where the valuations are becoming inflated. From 2013 to 2014, TMT / Internet average deal sizes almost doubled from US$6.5
Thriving communities of tech entrepreneurs are creating more investment opportunities.
主权财富基金
million to US$11.6 million. While the average is skewed by some high-profile deals, median deal size also nearly doubled from 2013 to 2014. The business fundamentals often don’t justify these valuation levels, but valuations take on a momentum of their own: valuations are driven by scarcity of deals and a fear of being left out. The recent debacle of debt-driven growth and subsequent bust of the Shanghai Stock Exchange further highlights the blind pursuit of profit and dearth of clear investment theses. This valuation momentum is further exacerbated by a traditional lack of disciplined commercial due diligence for early stage companies: it’s more about a sexy business plan and a gut-feel and track record of the management team than a detailed model of the market. After all how do you model a groundbreaking innovation that has never been done before? The risk is that this mentality, which is fine for placing $5-10 million dollar bets, is carried over into much larger Series B and later rounds where companies are still in very early stages but valuations have ballooned due to the valuation momentum and intensified competition for deals. When the bubble eventually burst a few months ago it was the late entrants who most 商道
许多通常从事后期投资的私募基金与投资机构 渐渐开始涉足初创期投资。 许多大型的私募基金买方公司不得不将其在 中国市场的投资战略从10年前的多数股权收购 调整为少数股权收购。现今不少私募基金公司 都在经历内部重塑，以适应互联网科技领域的 早期投资运作模式。 而一些主权财富基金也不再是被动的资产投 资者，相反，他们正成为早期高科技公司的主 要合作伙伴和投资商。在2013年，新加波的国 有投资基金淡马锡（之前已投资小米、阿里巴 巴、盛大文学和滴滴打车）成立了专属企业发 展部，专注于投资新的企业，并利用淡马锡私 募基金的运作经验帮助他们成长。 日益增长的交易规模与估值金额 随着更多的资金都瞄准了数量有限的高质量 投资机会，一些交易的规模已经攀升到高点， 估值存在大量溢价。TMT/互联网行业的平均交 易规模从2013年的650万美元增加到2014年的 1160万美元，几乎翻了一番。尽管平均交易金 额可能被一些特大规模的交易拉高，但从2013 年到2014年中型交易的规模也几乎翻倍了。虽 然这些交易的估值金额往往不能用商业基本面 来解释，但他们反映的是交易的稀缺性和对投 资机会的强烈把握愿望。 对于早期创业阶段公司的高质量商业尽职调 查的缺乏，进一步加剧了这种估值溢价的趋 势，因为放弃传统的衡量指标就意味着创业企 业只是用一项充满吸引力的商业计划、创业团 队的直觉和其管理层的历史经验作为基础来获 得投资，而并非用一个详尽的市场预估模型。 毕竟你要如何为一项打破惯例、从来没有人做 过的创新产品来预测其市场价值？这样的思维 模式尽管对500-1000万美元的投资来说无妨， 但在更大规模的B轮或后期的融资阶段是会产 生风险的，因为到那时虽然企业尚处于非常早 期的阶段，但这样的心态和愈演愈烈的竞争会 带来估值的高度膨胀。 最终当投资泡沫破灭之时，后期进入市场的 公司会最先蒙受损失，一部分原因是他们进入 市场的时机不对，还有一部分是因为他们尚未 从3-4年前的投资中兑现丰厚的回报。像淡马 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 55
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INVESTMENT
投资
EXAMPLES OF TOP DEALS IN 2014 AND 2015 2014-15年顶级互联网／TMT行业投资案例 SIZE 投资 规模 (US$M)
Source: Zero2IPO, L.E.K. research and analysis
INVESTMENT 目标行业 STAGE 投资阶段 INDUSTRY
TARGET 目标公司
INVESTOR(S) 投资方
Xiaojukeji 滴滴快的
China Investment, Pingan 中投、中国平安
3,000
Growth 成长期
Car hailing application 打车软件
2015
Xiaomi 小米
All-Stars Investment, DST, GIC RE, Yunfeng Capital 全明星基金、
1,100
Growth 成长期
Mobile phones and other personal electronics 智能手机
2014
Aliyun 阿里云
Alibaba Capital 阿里资本
968
Growth 成长期
Cloud computing services 云计算服务
2015
Didi Dache 滴滴打车
CIC, Temasek, Tencent Industry Win-Win Fund 中投公司、淡马锡 、
700
Early 初创期
Car hailing application 打车软件
2014
Meizu 魅族
Haitong Capital, Alibaba 海通证券、阿里巴巴
650
Late stage 成熟期 Mobile phones and other personal electronics 智能手机
2015
Qunar 去哪儿网
Silverlake and one undisclosed investor 银狐投资、未披露投资方
500
Pipe Pipe投资
Online travel agency 在线旅游中介
2015
DJI 大疆创新
New Horizon, GIC 新天域资本、GIC
500
Growth 成长期
Unmanned areal drones 无人机
2015
LeTV 乐视移动
E-town Capital 亦庄国投
450
Growth 成长期
Video and consumer electronics 视频与消费电子
2015
Guahao 挂号网
Hillhouse, Goldman Sachs, Fosun, Tencent, CDB Capital 高瓴资本、
394
Growth 成长期
Medical appointment services 医疗预约服务
2015
Ele.me 饿了么
Tencent, CITIC, Sequoia 腾讯、中信、红杉资本
350
Growth 成长期
Online food delivery 在线外卖服务
2015
Wandojia 豌豆荚
DCM, Goldman Sachs, Innovation Works, SoftBank DCM、高盛、
120
Growth 成长期
Application store 应用程序商店
2014
数码天空科技、新加坡政府产业投资有限公司、云峰基金
腾讯产业共赢基金
高盛、复星集团、腾讯、国开金融
创新工场、软银
Investors must be willing to take on more risk than what may be typical of a Silicon Valley investment. likely felt the burn the worst, partly since they stepped in at the wrong time, partly since they haven’t already cashed in huge returns from investments completed 3-4 years ago. Firms like Temasek, Sequoia, and Shenzhen Capital 56 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
及其他个人电子产品
have all enjoyed fantastic returns from the tech industry and are not afraid to continue making hundred million dollar bets where they please. Established investors will be able to weather the storm with full coffers while more recent investors feel the sting of the proverbial burst with the stock market crash a few months ago.
IMPACT ON INVESTORS
In order to make intelligent investments in China’s tumultuous tech sector, investors must be willing to take on more risk than what may be typical of a Silicon Valley investment. That being said, the current self-fulfilling momentum of deal volume and value needs to be given appropriate consideration before making a first foray into China’s tech sector. As deal sizes creep up from the $5-10m range to the $50-$100m+ range investors will need to start taking a different, more rigorous diligence approach to ensure the value and risk are justified. Many of the traditional commercial due diligence techniques used in evaluating commercial risks associated with established companies can be applied, in a somewhat modified way, including consumer testing, benchmarking comparable business models and stress testing market and financial projections. 商道
及其他个人电子产品
YEAR
锡、红杉资本和深创投这样的投资机构，他们 从科技行业中收获了巨大的投资收益，会毫不 畏惧继续投下亿万美元级的赌注。不过如果哪 天泡沫真的破灭了，领先的投资机构有充足的 资金来渡过难关，而新近进入市场的公司则只 剩下沉痛的领悟了。 对投资者的影响 为了在动荡的中国科技行业作出明智的投资 决策，投资者必须愿意承担比典型的硅谷投资 更大的投资风险。也就是说，在首次对中国科 技行业投资之前，需要适当考虑目前的交易规 模与投资心态给估值带来的影响。 随着交易规模从500-1000万美元迅速增长 到5000万-1亿美元的范围，投资者们需要以与 众不同的、更为缜密的尽职调查方式来保证合 理的估值和风险。许多用于评估成熟期公司的 商业风险的传统尽职调查方式仍然适用，但需 要进行一定的改进，加入包括消费者测试、商 业模型参照比较、市场应激实验与财务预测等 内容。 我们认为，正是在目前标准放宽、估值居高 的环境下，尽职调查才显得格外重要。无论是 什么行业，依据本地情况定制进入计划都是中 国投资策略成功的关键。宏观来看，中国大陆 科技初创企业的融资在可见的将来似乎都将维 持在高位，但不久前的股市崩盘提醒着我们， 无论投资者的热情如何高涨，市场都终将回归 理性和现实。
LEARNING CURVE
学习曲线
慧眼识新秀： 如何甄选富有前景的澳洲初创企业
HOW TO PICK A PROMISING AUSSIE STARTUP Having started his first company at the age of 19 in Israel, Andrey Shirben has since started and built another 14. Now a Sydney-based entrepreneur and startup mentor, Shirben’s first eight companies ran to the ground. But those weren’t failures. As Shirben puts it, “many valuable lessons learned, from a lack of funding, insufficient network and inexperience.” Shirben now spends his time mentoring and investing in startups, helping them avoid the mistakes he made. His days (and Inbox) are filled with more than a thousand pitches from startups a year. As an investor, the last three years through his company Syd Ventures, he has invested in and mentored over 50 startups. Two of his early startups Storwize and Face.com were sold to IBM and Facebook respectively for a combined US$220m. Kenshoo, which is still privately owned, had Shirben as its first investor in 2006 and was valued in its last raising in April 2014 at around US$500m. Shirben shares with Higher View Business the top three characteristics he looks for in picking startups. First, it always starts with the person, not the idea. When investing in a company, it’s common to first consider its investment thesis. In a startup, it’s firstly the founders. “Founders of startups operate in the fast changing world of digital and mobile,” Shirben says. “Business plans and markets change. It’s the founders’ willingness to take feedback and implement changes that set them apart.” Second, startups should not be too caught up in the brilliant idea they have. Instead it’s the problem they are trying to solve. The biggest opportunity lies in the biggest problem. Where there is a problem to be solved, there is a market awaiting.
Lastly, don’t emphasise the financials. The key number for startups is not revenue, but data. A technology’s success lies in its user engagement and addictiveness. Shirben calls this last measure the “Ravingfans Score”. It originates from a proprietary algorithmic model that systematically screens and scores thousands of early stage startups. “This process democratises the access to capital,” Shirben says. “The best ideas, no matter where they are in the world, get funded and funders get to see more startups.” This “secret sauce” is the basis of Follow[the] Seed, a venture capital firm Shirben started with three other partners (in the US, Israel and China), currently raising US$200m to invest in post-seed startups.”
自19岁在以色列创立第一家公司以来，Andrey Shirben先后组建了另外14家公司，如今已是一 位立足悉尼的创业和初创导师。Shirben创建的 前8家公司都先后关门，但这些并非他的败绩。 正如Shirben所说的：“我从资金匮乏、网络不 足以及经验欠缺的历练当中学习到了众多宝贵 的经验。” 如今Shirben主要将精力花在指导和投资初创 公司之上，帮助他们避开他曾经犯过的种种错 误。每年都有1000多家初创公司找他商谈投资 事宜；他的收件箱也塞满了类似的邮件。 作为一位投资者，在过去的三年里，他通过 名下的Syd Ventures公司指导并投资了逾50家 初 创 公 司 。他早期投资的两家初创公司—— storwize以及face.com——均已分别卖给了 IBM和Facebook，总成交额达到2.2亿美 元。Shirben于2006年成为Kenshoo（目前仍 由私人持有）的首位投资者；到2014年4月份最 后一轮融资之时，该公司的估值已达到5亿美元 左右。
商道
by Wai-Yee Chen
Shirben与《商道》分享了他在甄选初创公司 过程中关注的三大要点。 首先是从人开始入手，而非从点子入手。当 投资于一家公司之时，大部分投资者都会先考 虑其投资主题。在一家初创公司中，创始人高 于一切。 Shirben表示：“初创公司的创始人需要在一 个快速变化中的数字化和移动化市场中打拼。 企业制订计划，但市场会发生变化。只有那些 接受市场反馈并实施变革的创始人方能脱颖而 出，立于不败之地。” 其次，初创公司不应沉迷于他们的奇思妙 想。相反，他们应当努力去解决各种问题。最 大的问题当中也蕴藏着最大的商机。当有一个 问题亟需解决之时，它的背后往往是一块巨大 的市场。” 最后，不要纠结于财务问题。对于初创公司 而言，最关键的不是收入，而是数 据 。 一 个 技术的成功与否取决于用户是否投 身 并 沉 迷 其中。 Shirben将最后这项指标称为之“狂热粉丝 得分”。它源自于一种专有的计算程序模型， 可以系统性地对数以千计的初创公司进行筛选 和打分。Shirben指出：“这个过程实现了资本 投资的民主化。无论身在何处，最好的点子都 会得到投资，并且投资者也将发现更多的初创 公司。” 这个“秘笈”一直都是Follow [the] Seed公 司的根基所在；这家风投公司系由Shirben与其 它合伙人（来自美国、以色列以及中国）共同 创立，目前已融资2亿美元，主要目标是投资于 各种“已播种后”阶段的初创企业。
Wai-Yee is an Author and Derivatives Specialist Adviser. 郑伟义(Wai-Yee Chen)，作者和衍生品专家顾问。
H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 57
DIPLOMACY
外交
By Thomas Boak, Researcher Australia-China Relations Institute 作者：托马斯·博克，澳中关系研究 院研究员
细察澳中关系
AUDITING THE AUSTRALIA-CHINA RELATIONSHIP
The media often presents a hyperbolic view of the relationship with China, but beyond the headlines Australia and China have a solid and productive relationship on a number of counts. In this audit of the Australia-China relationship, Thomas Boak from the Australia-China Relations Institute looks at where there is room for improvement. 媒体在报道澳中两国关系时经常会夸大其词，但在这些林林总总的标题之外，事 实是澳大利亚与中国在诸多方面都保持着一种稳固而富有成果的关系。在本篇关 于细察澳中两国关系的文章中，来自澳中关系研究院的托马斯·伯克将与我们探 讨两国关系当中尚有改进余地的地方。
A
ustralia and China have a solid relationship. That was the finding of a recent report by the AustraliaChina Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney that compares how eight developed nations are managing a rising China on a range of criteria. The Australia-China relationship is solid because on no criterion is Australia particularly lacking compared to Canada, France, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and the USA. At the same time, Australia also didn’t perform exceptionally well in any measure comparative to these seven countries. Beyond the headlines, the mixed results of this report show that Australia is managing bilateral relations with China relatively effectively but that room for improvement remains. Australia has participated in more defence exercises with China than peer nations and 58 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
was only the second country to negotiate an annual defence dialogue with China at the four-star level. In 2010, the Royal Australian Navy was the first navy from a developed country to hold live fire exercises with their Chinese counterparts.
$24b 240 亿
the amount of Chinese FDI stock in Australia by end of 2014. 截至2014年底，中国在澳大 利亚的对外直接投资存量约 达240亿美元。
商道
澳
大利亚与中国之间关系稳固——这是悉尼 科技大学澳中关系研究院新近发布的一份 报告得出的结论。此报告用一系列的指标，比 较分析了八个发达国家与不断崛起的中国打交 道的实际状况。 澳中关系之所以稳固的原因在于：与加拿大、 法国、德国、新西兰、新加坡、韩国以及美国 相比，澳大利亚在任何一项指标上均未存在明 显欠缺。但与此同时，与上述七个国家相比， 澳大利亚亦未在哪一项指标上特别出众。抛却 各种新闻标题，这份报告所得出的有些矛盾而 复杂的结果显示澳大利亚能以相对富有成效的 方式发展与中国的双边关系，但这种关系仍颇 具改进空间。 与其它国家相比，澳大利亚与中国组织了更 多的防卫演习，并且是第二个与中国开展四星 上将级别年度防卫对话的国家。2010年，澳大 利亚皇家海军成为首支由发达国家派出与中国 开展实战军事演习的海军。 不过，对于中国的东海和南海对外政策，
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外交
63% Australia’s export to China 2010-2014, beaten only by Canada and New Zealand 在2010年至2014年期间， 澳大利亚的对华出口收入 增长了63%。
Australia has, though, been more critical than many other developed nations on China’s foreign policy in the East and South China Seas. On November 26, 2013, the Australian Government announced that it had called in the Chinese Ambassador to Australia to “convey the Australian Government’s concerns” over China’s “sudden announcement” of an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over parts of the East China Sea. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi later dressed down Australian Foreign Minister
Julie Bishop for the move, stating that it had “jeopardised bilateral mutual trust”. Of all the countries that voiced concerns over China’s ADIZ, Australia alone received such criticism. On other measures, the results are equally mixed. Leadership visits between Australia and China are relatively high but Australian diplomatic representation in China is relatively low. Voting records from the United Nations General Assembly show that Australia votes with China in the UN General Assembly less than most of the other nations surveyed— Singapore had the highest voting similarity with China—but it votes with China significantly more than does the US. Australia and China have a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and though there is some debate on what this partnership actually means, it does demonstrate the increasingly institutionalised ties between the Australian and Chinese governments.
澳大利亚的批评声浪则要比许多其它发达国家 激烈得多。2013年11月26日，澳大利亚政府宣 布其已传召中国驻澳大利亚大使传达了澳大利 亚政府对于中国突然宣布在东海部分地区设立 防空识别区的关注。中国外交部长王毅随后针 对澳大利亚在这一问题上的言行向澳大利亚外 长朱莉·毕晓普指出批评，表示此举“损害了 双方互信”。在所有对中国设立防空识别区表 示关切的国家当中，只有澳大利亚收到了此种 批评。 其它指标的评估结果也同样充满矛盾。虽然 澳中两国领导人之间的互访相对频繁，但澳大 利亚派驻中国的外交力度并不大。根据联合国 大会的投票记录，澳大利亚投票支持中国的次 数低于此报告所调查的其它大部分国家——新 加坡与中国的投票相似率最高——但澳大利亚 投票支持中国的次数要显著高于美国。 澳大利亚与中国之间已建立了全面战略伙伴 关系；虽然各界对于此种伙伴关系的真正含义 众说纷纭，但它真真切切地展示了澳中两国政 府之间日益制度化的纽带。
INTERTWINED ECONOMIES
交横绸缪的经济往来 在经济关系方面，澳大利亚是中国第七大贸 易伙伴，其中澳对华出口占双边贸易总额的70% 以上。2014年，美国对中国的出口总值仅比澳 大利亚对华出口总值高60%——尽管美国经济总 量是澳大利亚的十倍以上。虽然自2013年年中 以来澳大利亚对华出口总值略有下滑，但在 2010年至2014年期间，澳大利亚的对华出口收 入增长了63%。在此期间，澳大利亚的对华出口 增速仅次于加拿大（70%）和新西兰（153%）。 在2015年6月前12个月期间，澳大利亚31.7%
In terms of economic relations, Australia is China’s seventh largest trading partner, with Australian exports making up over 70% of total trade. In 2014, the value of total US exports to China was only 60% higher than Australian exports despite the US economy being more than 10 times the size of Australia’s. Although the value of Australian exports to China has fallen slightly since mid-2013, between 2010 and 2014, Australian export earnings from
TWO WAY TRADE OF GOODS AND SERVICES WITH CHINA, 2014 与中国进行双向商品及服务贸易（2014）
Source: CEIC Data
NEW ZEALAND 新西兰 CANADA 加拿大 FRANCE 法国 SINGAPORE 新加坡 AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 GERMANY 德国 SOUTH KOREA 南韩 USA 美国 $US million 0 60 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
100,000
200,000
300,000 商道
400,000
500,000
600,000
DIPLOMACY
外交
Australia is second only to the US as a destination for Chinese students. China grew by 63%. Over this period, Australia’s export growth was beaten only by Canada on 70% and New Zealand, whose exports to China increased in value by 153%. The importance of China to Australia is shown in that in the 12 months to June 2015, China was the destination for 31.7% of Australian exports. Although this is down from 36.7% at its peak in the 12 months to May 2014, China still takes a greater percentage of Australian exports than any country has in more than 30 years. But while the value of Australian exports to China are comparatively high, these exports are concentrated on a small group of products. All of the other seven nations covered in this audit had more diversified exports of goods to China than Australia, especially the US, Germany and South Korea. This high concentration is not surprising, considering the domination of mineral resources among Australian exports. Iron ore, for example, accounted for 23% of the value of all Australian exports between July
的出口商品都流向了中国市场，充分彰显出中 国对于澳大利亚的重要性。虽然这一数字低于 2014年5月前12个月期间所达到的36.7%的最高 值，但在过去的30多年里，中国始终在澳大利 亚对外出口贸易当中占据高于任何其它国家的 比重。 虽然澳大利亚对华出口总值相对较高，但这 些出口贸易都集中在一小部分的商品类别。本 次调查中所涵盖的所有其它七个国家在对华出 口商品的多样性方面均优于澳大利亚，尤其是 美国、德国以及韩国。考虑到矿产资源在 澳大利亚对外出口贸易中所占的比重，这种出 口商品类别的高度集中也就不足为奇了。例 如，2013年7月至2014年7月期间，铁矿石出口 到澳大利亚出口总值的23%，而中国在此期间就 购买了澳大利亚铁矿石出口总量的76%。这意 味着澳大利亚出口收入当中有17%源自于铁矿石 这个单一商品对中国这个单一国家的出口。 虽然出口商品过于集中本身并非双边关系薄 弱的体现，但对于如此重要的一个市场，此种 情况无疑会令澳大利亚面临重大的贸易额波动 风险。鉴于澳大利亚对华主要出口商品的价格 历来都存在着较大的波动，这种风险尤为突出。 商道
近年来，虽然澳大利亚对华出口数量持续看涨， 但出口总值却出现下滑，这也映证了关键矿产 品价格下跌可能会给整体澳中贸易带来影响的 预测。 在此背景下，《中澳自由贸易协定》（在写 此文之际似乎必将得到澳大利亚议会的迅速批 准）通过向澳大利亚企业提供进军中国市场的 更多机遇，有望推动澳大利亚出口贸易的多元 化。这对于农业和服务业而言尤为重要，因为 预计未来几年内中国对这两个行业的需求将迎 来高速增长。 但是，澳大利亚并非唯一与中国签署《自由 贸易协定》的国家。本报告所涵盖的国家当中， 新加坡和新西兰早在2008年就与中国签订了 《自由贸易协定》；韩国亦已与中国签订了《自 由贸易协定》，目前尚在提交审批之中。尽管 如此，在一系列的指标方面，中国在《中澳自 由贸易协定》中所承诺的关税减让力度要远远 大于其与其它三个国家所签署的《自由贸易协 定》。例如，澳大利亚的乳品出口商将无需受 限于（在绝大部分情况下）中国对新西兰农户 实施的出口配额管制。 作为中国对外投资的目的地之一，澳大利亚 格外引人瞩目。截至2014年底，中国在澳大利 亚的对外直接投资存量约达240亿美元，占中国 全部对外直接投资存量的2.7%。在此次调查所 涵盖的八个国家当中，只有美国在吸引中国的 直接投资存量上超过澳大利亚。虽然中国的全 部对外直接投资存量当中有4.3%位于美国，这 也只是比澳大利亚高出60%而已，但是，请再次 注意美国的年度GDP是澳大利亚的十倍以上！ H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 61
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DIPLOMACY
2013 and June 14 and China bought 76% of all Australian iron ore exports in this period. This means that around 17% of all Australian export earnings came from the sale of one product— iron ore—to one nation—China. While in itself this export concentration is not a sign of weakness in bilateral relations, concentrating exports to such an important market on a small group of products leaves Australia open to significant trade value volatility. This is especially apparent considering that the price of commodities— Australia’s main exports to China—has historically been particularly volatile. The recent drop in the value of Australian exports to China despite increased export volumes is testament to the effect a fall in the price of key mineral exports can have on overall AustraliaChina trade. It is in this context that the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA)—which, at the time of writing, appeared set to be soon ratified by the Australian parliament—has the potential to facilitate the diversification of Australian exports by granting Australian firms greater access to Chinese markets. This seems especially important for the agribusiness and services sectors, where strong demand is predicted in China over the coming years. Australia is not, however, the only nation 62 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
外交
with an FTA with China. Of the countries in this report, Singapore and New Zealand both have had FTAs with China in place since 2008 and a China-South Korea FTA has been signed, although is yet to be ratified. Nevertheless, Australia’s agreement with China does appear on a number of measures to commit China to greater concessions than do China’s FTAs with either of these three nations. Australian dairy exporters, for example, will—for the most part—not have to navigate the export quotas enforced by China on New Zealand farmers. As a destination for Chinese foreign investment, Australia also stands out. By the end of 2014, China had some US$24 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Australia, 2.7% of its total FDI stock. Of the eight nations covered by this survey, only the US is home to more Chinese direct investment than Australia. Even here, while China has 4.3% of its total FDI stock in the US, this works out to be only 60% higher than its FDI in Australia. This is despite—again—the US having an annual GDP more than 10 times larger than Australia’s. However, while Australia compares well on its share of Chinese investment, it also leads in the number of failed Chinese investments or contracts valued at over US$100 million. The Australian government’s rejection on grounds 商道
76%
The proportion of Australia’s iron ore exports that went to China July 2013 - June 2014 2013年7月至2014年7月 期间，中国在此期间就 购买了澳大利亚铁矿石 出口总量的76%。
虽然澳大利亚在吸引中国投资所占比重这项 指标上占据上风，但也是中国投资/合约失败数 量最多的国家（总计价值超过1亿美元）。澳大 利亚政府以国家安全为由拒绝了中国通信公司 华为在2011年参与国家宽带网络项目竞标的资 格，这也给澳中投资关系蒙上了一层阴影。此 处，虽然澳大利亚在吸引中国的对处直接投资 存量上遥遥领先于绝大部分的其它西方国家， 但它依然大幅落后于韩国和新加坡。再则，虽 然《中澳自由贸易协定》将放开各种双边投资 壁垒并将有力提升两国之间的投资联系，但全 面拓展两国关系仍有巨大的改善空间。 公众认知和旅游 在经济和外交事务以外，在本项研究所涵盖 的国家当中，澳大利亚作为中国莘莘学子青睐 的留学目的地，其受欢迎程度仅次于美国；并
DIPLOMACY
外交
NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AND INVESTMENTS BY CHINESE FIRMS OVER $US100 MILLION BY COUNTRY, 2005 TO MID-2014 2005至2014中旬中国企业签 订合同及投资逾1亿美元的数量（按国家分布）
Source: The Heritage Foundation
$US million
NEW ZEALAND 新西兰 CANADA 加拿大 FRANCE 法国 SINGAPORE 新加坡 AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 GERMANY 德国 SOUTH KOREA 南韩 USA 美国 0
20
40
of national security of a bid by Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to participate in the National Broadband Network in 2011 also presents a less rosy picture of the Australia-China investment relationship. Further, while Australia is ahead of most other Western nations in terms of the share of total stock of outward FDI in China, it lags significantly behind both South Korea and Singapore. Again, while the liberalisations of barriers to bilateral investment under the China-Australia FTA should facilitate stronger investment ties, there is significant room for broader improvement.
CULTURAL TIES
Away from economics and foreign affairs, of the nations in this study Australia is second only to the US as a destination for Chinese students, and only Canada, South Korea and the US had more Chinese-born residents than Australia as of mid-2013. As a destination for Chinese tourists, however, Australia was middling in its performance compared with its peers. Importantly for Australian national pride, though, Australia is more popular than New Zealand as a destination for Chinese tourists. In terms of public perceptions, Australia scored very highly in polling of Chinese business leaders released in 2015 by the
60
80
100
Australia-China Relations Institute and polling of Chinese investors in 2014 by KPMG. On the other hand, the percentage of Australian citizens with a positive view of China was average when compared to other nations, with 58% of Australian respondents holding a favourable opinion of China in 2013 according to Pew Global. Interestingly, while Germany was seen very favourably by Chinese respondents, only 28% of Germans saw China positively. This is also despite the fact that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has met with the Chinese leadership more than any other European leader. Even in the US, where China’s actions in the South China Sea have caused public concern, 35% of respondents had a positive view of China. This report by the Australia-China Relations Institute highlights a number of contradictions in the ways developed countries interact with a rising China. Worldwide, the media presents an often hyperbolic view of China, and in Australia, news stories on relations between Australia and China are often volatile, sometimes overlooking weaknesses, sometimes overlooking successes. This report shows that beyond the headlines, Australia and China have a solid and productive relationship. There is, however, certainly room for improvement. 商道
Australia leads in the number of failed Chinese investments or contracts valued at over US$100 million. 且截止2013年年中，在中国出生的居民数量方 面仅有加拿大、韩国和美国超过澳大利亚。但 是，作为中国游客热衷的一个旅游目的地，澳 大利亚的表现仅徘徊在中等水平。不过，澳大 利亚人民应倍感自豪的是澳大利亚要比新西兰 更受中国游客的欢迎。 在公众认知方面，澳大利亚在澳中关系学院 于2015年实施的中国商业领袖投票调查以及毕 马威于2014年实施的中国投资者投票调查中得 分极高。另一方面，与其它国家相比，对中国 持积极看法的澳大利亚公民所占比例仅处于平 均水平；根据皮尤全球（Pew Global）在2013 年的调查，只有58%的澳大利亚调查对象对中国 持正面看法。 耐人寻味的是，虽然德国最受中国调查对象 的喜爱，但只有28%的德国人对中国持正面看 法——尽管德国总理安格拉•默克尔与中国领导 人会晤的次数远远多于任何其它欧洲国家领导 人。即便在美国，虽然中国在南海采取的行动引 发了广泛关注，但有35%的美国人对中国持正面 看法。澳中关系学院的这份报告凸显出发达国 家在与一个崛起中的中国打交道的过程中所出 现的一系列矛盾。 在全球范围内，各类媒体常以一种哗众取宠 的方式来报道中国。在澳大利亚，与澳中关系 相关的新报道通常也起伏不定，有时对薄弱之 处视而不见，有时也对成功方面置若罔闻。这 份报告显示出：抛却各种新闻标题，澳大利亚 与中国保持着一种稳固而富有成果的关系，但 这种关系仍有完善的余地。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 6 3
ECONOMY
经济
By David Thomas, Chief Executive, Think Global Consulting Katya Dobinson, Business Manager, Think Global Consulting 作者：唐明达，澳大利亚Think Global Consulting商务经理 杜凯琳，澳大利亚Think Global Consulting行政总裁
新市场，新部长… 还有猴年新岁
MARKETS, MINISTERS AND MONKEYS
Australia and China have laid the foundations of a long-lasting relationship, but the incoming Year of the Monkey brings some exciting developments which will inject energy and dynamism, write David Thomas and Katya Dobinson from Think Global Consulting. 中澳已经打下长远关系的良好根基，而即将到来的猴年也将迎来更多振奋人 心的进展，为两国关系注入新动力，新活力，Think Global Consulting公司 杜凯琳和唐明达为你细细道来。
T
he end of the year is not only a good time for reflection, but also the time to make New Year predictions. Looking back, 2014 and 2015 were the Chinese zodiac years of the Horse and Sheep respectively – hard-working, conscientious yet measured zodiac signs. And arguably, the Australia-China relationship has progressed similarly over these last two years. After slow yet concerted activity, Australia has finally laid down the foundations for its engagement with China, bringing to a close the first phase of the relationship. But 2016 is the year of the Monkey which is characterised by an energetic, creative and dynamic spirit. With that in mind, here follows our five predictions for 2016 which we believe will take the Australia-China relationship to new and exciting heights. 64 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
1. TURNBULL IN THE DRIVING SEAT The appointment of Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s new Prime Minister is a potential game-changer for Australian-Chinese economic and diplomatic relations. With the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement ready to go in 2016, Turnbull will finally be in the driving seat of Australia’s relationship with China. Before his appointment as PM, Turnbull delivered the keynote address at the Australia China Business Week Sydney Forum in August 2015 which we both attended. Speaking to a crowd of well over 200 people, he did not just list the growing figures in cross-border trade between Australia and China or the opportunities that ChAFTA will open up to Australian business. He also stressed the need for Australian businesses to be open to the 商道
岁
末是回顾总结的好时机，更是展望新年 的良机。回首过去，2014年和2015年是 中国农历马年和羊年——勤奋努力、稳健扎实 是这两个生肖的特点。中澳关系似乎也在过去 两年里经历了类似的发展。经过漫长的通力协 作，自贸协定的签订使澳大利亚最终奠定了与 中国合作的基础，进入了两国关系第一阶段的 终点。但是，2016年的猴年是一个富有活力、 积极进取并富有创造力的年度。本着这种精 神，我们对2016年作出了五大预测。我们相信 中澳关系将跃向激动人心的新高度。 1. 特恩布尔，澳中关系新掌舵人 马尔科姆·特恩布尔获选澳大利亚新总理， 成为中澳经济与外交关系改弦更张的潜在因 素。2016年《中澳自由贸易协定》启航，特恩 布尔也将成为澳中关系的澳方掌舵人。 就任总理之前，特恩布尔曾于2015年8月的 澳中商务周悉尼站论坛上作主题演讲。笔者也
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Developing ECONOMY The future of Australia China Business
经济
“When you become an ACBC member you are welcomed into a diverse network of influential and dynamic businesses, large and small.”
Become a member today www.acbc.com.au NSW
NT
QLD
SA 商道
VIC
WA
TAS
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 6 5
ECONOMY
0.45 million
经济
The number of Chinese-born Australians. 中国出生的澳大利 亚人口数目。
inevitable changes, challenges and opportunities when dealing with China. Here is what he said: “Australia is well-placed to capitalise on this new wave of innovation and disruption emerging from China. However, we all have a role fostering a culture of innovation which must be driven by the private sector, educational institutions and government… In the age of rapid technological change, disruption and volatility we must learn to make volatility our friend, not our foe. We must be agile to exploit the opportunities, rather than waiting behind the walls frightened of the new challenge.”
Along with Turnbull’s personal, business and family connections to China (he set up the first Sino-Western mining joint venture in 1994 and his son is married to the daughter of a former Chinese academic) and his recent appointment of former Australian Ambassador to China, Frances Adamson, as his key foreign policy advisor, Turnbull seems to appreciate the complexities, nuances and challenges of the Australia-China relationship and is committed to embrace these to take the relationship to the next level. We expect to see Turnbull announce some major initiatives in 2016.
2. OPPORTUNITIES AT HOME
Whilst there has been some progress and focus on opening up China to Australian exporters, China’s inbound activity into Australia is expected to provide even more opportunities in the short-term for Australian businesses. By the end of 2014, there were 859,500 visitors to Australia from China, generating A$5.7 billion in revenue. In just 5 months, this number shot up to 921,800 visitors, generating a total spend of A$6.4 billion. It was originally projected that Australia will have one million Chinese tourists by the end of the decade, however, with the current trajectory we may reach that number by the end of 2016!
SKY ROCKETING CHINESE SPENDING HABITS 极速增长的中国消费者的消费习惯
NO.1
Australia overtook France as the NO.1 preferred international luxury travel destination. 澳大利亚超越法国成为首选境 外奢侈品消费目的地。
Gifting is the NO.1 factor driving Chinese tourism travel shopping. 送礼是中国游客旅行购物的 首要原因。
Source: ConectingChina
80% greater than 80% say that shopping is vital to their plans.
超过80%认为购物是他们计划 中重要的一环。
$165b $112b CHINA 中国
USA 美国
$165 billion spent by Chinese tourists in 2014 followed by American tourists at $112 billion. 中国游客于2014年消费1,650亿美元，其次是美国游客，消费1,120亿美元。
66 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
有幸出席论坛。面对200多位现场观众，特恩 布尔不只是列举了中澳之间的跨境贸易数据， 或是《中澳自由贸易协定》将为澳大利亚企业 带来的机遇。他也强调了澳大利亚企业在与中 国合作之时将必然面临的变化、挑战和机遇。 他说： “澳大利亚已经准备好利用来自中国的 创新与颠覆的新浪潮。但是，创新文化的 形成是我们所有人的任务，必须由私营企业、 教育机构和政府部门等方方面面来驱动。 在这样一个科学技术日新月异、颠覆与波动 交织的年代，我们必须学会与变化携手共进， 而非逆势对抗。我们必须灵活把握机遇， 而不能因为害怕新挑战而躲在围墙后面守株 待兔。” 就其与中国的个人、商业和家庭关系（特恩 布尔本人于1994年创办中国改革开放之后第一 家中外合资的矿山企业；他的儿媳王怡文 （Yvonne Wang）是中国学者之女）以及他 新近任命前澳大利亚驻华大使孙芳安 （Frances Adamson）担任其首席外交政策 顾问来看，特恩布尔似乎理解澳中关系的错综 复杂、微妙之处及其问题和挑战，并且决心直 面这些问题推动澳中关系更上一层楼。我们期 待2016年能看到特恩布尔出台重要举措。 2. 本土机会 尽管澳大利亚出口商对中国开放市场日益关 注，并已取得一定的进展，但是中国入境澳大 利亚的活动有望为澳大利亚企业提供更多的机 会。截至2014年底，共有859,500名中国游客 赴澳，旅游创收达57亿澳元。而仅在今年5 月，这一数据已经激增至921,800人，共计消 费64亿澳元。原本预测2020年底之前将有100 万中国游客赴澳大利亚，但是据目前趋势来 看，2016年年底就将达到这一预期！ 澳大利亚的华人群体也将不断壮大。过去十 年，中国出生的澳大利亚人数目翻了一番，达 到450,000人，并且还在不断攀升。去年，澳 大利亚大学录取的中国留学生数目超过 150,000人。 尽管有《中澳自由贸易协定》的签署以及为 澳大利亚企业参与中国市场而提供的更为 广泛的支持、服务与培训网络，但是也仍然存 在着重要的挑战和障碍，阻碍着许多企业—— 尤其是小型及微型企业——的前进脚步。 我们预计在澳华人群体将成为有意进入中国市 场的澳大利亚企业的桥梁。但是，我们尚未充 分发掘这一群体的潜力。能让中国员工晋 升高位的澳大利亚企业不多，而聘用刚毕业中 国留学生的澳大利亚企业更是少之又少。本土 的华人群体也为澳大利亚产品向中国出口提供 了极有成效的试验场。出口商甚至没有真正出 口产品即能获得客户反馈，因为如研究所示，
ECONOMY
经济
ON WHICH TOP3 CATEGORIES WILL YOU SPEND MORE IN THE COMING 6 MONTHS?
Source: McKinsey China Ecommerce Sentiment Survey (September 2015)
未来六个月将较多消费在哪三个类别上？
Percent; net of categories where they will spend LESS 百分比;净类，他们将花费更少
FOOD AND BEVERAGE 餐饮
ELECTRICAL HOUSEHOLD 家用电气
43%
18%
LEISURE TRAVEL 休闲旅游
DIGITAL GADGETS 数码产品
37%
15%
ENTERTAINMENT (INCL. DINING OUT) 娱乐（包括外出就餐）
PRIVATE CAR 私家车
10%
37% INVESTMENT 投资
REAL ESTATE 房地产
9%
28%
In the age of rapid technological change, disruption and volatility we must learn to make volatility our friend, not our foe.” - Malcolm Turnbull
The Chinese community already in Australia has also grown exponentially. The number of Chinese-born Australians has doubled over the past 10 years to reach 450,000 and is still growing. And last year, our Australian universities recorded over 150,000 enrolled Chinese international students. Despite the developments of ChAFTA and the wider network of support, services and training for Australian businesses to participate in the China market, there still remain significant challenges and obstacles, putting off many businesses, particularly those in the small and micro category. We predict that the Chinese community in Australia will eventually become the bridge for Australian businesses wanting to enter the Chinese market. However, we have not yet realised its full potential. Few Australian companies have moved Chinese staff into senior positions and very few Chinese international students are employed by Australian companies after graduating. The Chinese community also provides an effective testing ground for Australian products before exporting to China. These exporters may not then actually need to export their products as research has shown tourists and international students are sending more and more Australian products back home to friends and family. Luxury retailers, 商道
越来越多的游客和留学生选择澳洲产品寄送回 国馈赠亲友。自2015年澳大利亚超越法国成为 境外奢侈品消费目的地大咖以来，澳大利亚的 奢侈品零售商、高端饮食提供商和酒店业务也 将高涨。即便是家族运营的小型企业，也能针 对不断壮大的赴澳中国富人阶层开发定制服务 和产品。 3. 中国：迈向2020 2016年标志着中国重要的国家规划性文 件——“十三五”规划（2016-2020）的开 始。“十二五”规划（2011-2015）被认为是 中国历史上的重大转折，标志着中国经济 增长由之前“不惜一切代价保增长”的方式 转变为侧重可持续发展及提升发展质量的增长 模式。 当然，“规划”的核心是中国经济再平衡， 特别在于它将给工业和商业带来重大影响。 随着中国制造业与出口的减缓，政府已经认识 到需要技术和创新来支持和驱动经济。“互联 网+”战略和“中国制造2025”两大议程预计 将成为下一个“五年规划”的专题。“互联 网+”战略将互联网转变为助益工业发展、 变革和创造新产品与服务的生态系统。而为了 撕掉“山寨”标签，中国的制造商将根据“中 国制造2025”规划的重大激励举措进驻注重科 技含量的“开放制造空间”。为响应该倡议， 已经启动大量资金将中国的学校、大学和职业 学院提升到世界标准，并鼓励学生本土求学而 无需远赴海外。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 67
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ECONOMY
high-end food and beverage providers and hotels can also expect a boom in business since Australia overtook France as the number 1 international luxury destination in 2015. And even small family-run businesses can develop tailor-made services and products for the increasing numbers of wealthy Chinese coming to Australia.
3. CHINA TO 2020
The year 2016 marks the beginning of China’s 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020) - the key national planning document. The 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) was seen as the most transformative planning document in China’s history, marking a shift away from the previous ‘growth at any cost’ approach to a more sustainable and qualitative growth model. Of course, at the heart of the Plan is China’s economic rebalancing, particularly as it affects industry and business. As China’s factories and exports slow down, the government has recognised the need for technology and innovation to prop up and drive the economy. Two major agendas- the ‘Internet+’ Strategy and ‘Made in China 2025’ are expected to be features of the next Five Year Plan. The ‘Internet+’ Strategy will transform the internet into an ecosystem to help industries grow, transform and create new products and services. Tired of being labelled as the world’s ‘copy-cats’, manufacturers will be offered major incentives under the ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative to move into the tech space. To supplement this, major funding has been committed to bring China’s schools,
The year 2015 was marked with an obsession for China’s slowing GDP growth rate. 6 8 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
经济
EVER GROWING CHINESE TOURIST NUMBERS
持续增长的中国游客数据库
US$165 Billion
2X
Total spend by over 100 million Chinese overseas travellers over the past year.
Source: ConectingChina
Foreign trips made from China will double by the year 2023. 中国至海外的出行数量将于2023年翻倍。
过去一年1亿多中国海外游客 的总花费。
+19%
universities and vocational colleges up to world standards and encourage more students to study locally rather than abroad. Responding to the growth of China’s middle class, the 13th Five Year Plan will also be dedicated to building a ‘healthy China’. Unprecedented reforms and investment into China’s healthcare system are expected, with a major overhaul of its public hospital system and the establishment of more private specialised hospitals (particularly in aged-care services). Environmental protection policies will also be extended by setting more ambitious emission reduction targets and goals to grow China’s clean-energy industry. All of these initiatives represent opportunities for Australia to be a part of China’s transformation. With technology and entrepreneurship at the core of China’s 13th Five Year Plan, 2016 is expected to kick-start a period of transformation and innovation.
Chinese visitors to Australia spent a record $5.7b in 2014, an increase of 19%. 赴澳洲旅游的中国游客于2014年消费总额为 57亿美元，同比增长19％。
Spending by Chinese tourists will triple by the year 2020. 中国游客将于2020年 消费增三倍。
4. ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OR REBALANCING?
Is China’s economy slowing? If so, does this actually matter? The year 2015 was marked with an obsession for China’s slowing GDP growth rate and concerns over the recent collapse of the Chinese stock market. In October 2015, the Chinese government announced that the country’s GDP growth for the third quarter was 6.9%, obviously short of its official 7.4% goal by the end of 2015. 商道
Travel remains the preferred leisure activity for Chinese high net worth individuals.
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旅游依然是中国高净值人士首选的休闲活动。
ECONOMY 欢迎
WELCOME 经济
澳大利亚中国总商会简介 澳大利亚中国总商会是中国驻澳大利亚的中资 企业的联合组织，为非营利性的社团，成立于 2006年。截止2015年10月末，共有303家会员单 位，分布在新南威尔士州、维多利亚州、西澳大 利亚州和昆士兰州。会员业务涉及能源、矿产、 贸易、金融、运输、房地产、制造、旅游农牧业 等多个领域。 总部设在悉尼，并分别在悉尼、墨尔本、珀斯和 布里斯班建有四个分会。总商会目前有27名理事， 其中设有1位会长和4位副会长。各分会会长由总商 会会长或副会长兼任。悉尼分会共149家会员单位， 业务范围包括能源、矿产、贸易、金融、运输、旅
游、制造、科技等多个行业。珀斯分会共54家会员 单位，主要由国内大型的矿产、钢铁、油气等资源 类企业组成；墨尔本分会共52家会员单位，主要以 科技、制造、能源类企业为主；布里斯班分会目前 共48家会员单位，主要以能矿企业为主。 总商会的宗旨是为会员服务，维护会员的合法 权益，促进中澳经济贸易关系的发展和企业间的交 流，为会员在澳大利亚和中国的业务发展发挥桥梁 和纽带作用。 澳大利亚中国总商会现任会长是中国银行悉尼分 行行长兼澳大利亚地区总代表胡善君先生，胡先生 同时兼任悉尼分会会长。
Brief Introduction of China Chamber of Commerce in Australia China Chamber of Commerce in Australia (or CCCA for short) was founded in April 2006 and is a non-profit national organization jointly formed by trade associations representing Chinese investors across Australia. The CCCA has 27 directors in its management, with four branches and currently 303 members across New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland. Sydney branch has 149 members, Perth branch has 54 members, Melbourne branch has 52 members and Brisbane branch has 48 members as at the end of August 2015. The businesses of our members cover a wide range of industries including resources,
mining, trading, finance, transport, real estate, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry. The Purpose of the CCCA is to facilitate communications and provide services to enterprises with Chinese capital registered in Australia; to protect their lawful rights; to promote the development of China-Australia economic and trade relations and exchanges between companies; and to function as a bridge and a link between the two countries. The chairman of CCCA is Mr.Hu Shanjun, who is General Manager & Country HeadAustralia, Bank of China, and he also chairs CCCA Sydney Branch.
www.chinachamber.org.au
12 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 69
ECONOMY
经济
CHINA’S UNPRECEDENTED WEALTH OF OPPORTUNITY
中国前所未有的财富机遇
1/2
1/2 of Chinese who will be wealthy in 5 years aren’t wealthy today. 5年后富裕的中国人中有一半今天 并不富裕。
1/2
1/2 of Chinese who are wealthy today weren’t wealthy 4 years ago. 今天富有的中国人当中有一半在 4年前并不富裕。
1.3 M
China now boasts over 200 billionaires & 1.3 million millionaires. 中国目前拥有超过200个亿万富翁和 130万个百万富翁。
Source: ConectingChina
Australian businesses should pay attention to China’s micro, not macro, economic development. 70 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Western economists and commentators have been worried about the international flow-on effects of China’s slowing economy…but should they be? News from on the ground shows little signs of a catastrophic economic collapse. Consumers are still purchasing expensive products such as high-quality imported food and leisure and entertainment activities like going to the cinema and eating out. Outbound tourism numbers also tell a different story – over 100 million Chinese people travelled overseas in the past 12 months and spent US$165 billion. In a country as large and diverse as China, there is a danger in concentrating too much on national economic averages. China’s ‘Go West’ policy which took hold in the 12th Five Year Plan saw the economies of many inner-western second and third tier cities grow at double digits – for example, Chongqing grew at 10.9% and Wuhan at 9.7% in 2014. As China diversifies its economic activity away from the eastern seaboard to these fast-growing 2nd and 3rd tier cities, they will become the future growth engines of the economy. With a market as large as China’s, Australian businesses should be focusing their efforts on targeting these cities and not the nation as a whole and pay attention to China’s micro, not macro, economic development.
5. MONKEYING AROUND
Anyone who deals closely with China understands the importance of the Chinese zodiac cycle for everyday life, long-term planning and business relationships. The year 2016 will be the year of the Monkey, a considerable change from year of the Sheep (2015) and the Horse (2014). Those born in the Sheep and Horse years are more measured, considerate and quiet hardworkers whilst Monkeys are adventurous, ambitious and boisterous. Australia’s relationship with China has been marked by years of steady progress and small steps, typical Horse and Goat characteristics, to set up a launching pad for Australian businesses. In 2016 we hope and expect that Australian businesses will jump into China with courage, creativity and conviction, to take the relationship to new and unprecedented heights. 商道
面对中国中产阶级的发展壮大，“十三五” 规划还将致力于打造“健康中国”。随着 公立医院体系的变革和更多私立专科医院 （尤其是老年人护理服务领域）的建立，预计 中国的医疗保健系统将迎来前所未有的改革 和投资。旨在发展清洁能源产业的更多宏伟 减排目标的确立，进一步加强和落实了中国的 环境保护政策。所有这些举措都体现出澳大利 亚参与中国转型的机遇。 中国的“十三五”规划以科技与创业为核 心，2016年将开启变革与创新的新纪元。 4. 经济崩溃还是实现新平衡？ 中国经济增长是否放缓？如果是的话，影响 到底有多大呢？2015年是中国GDP增速放缓 的一年。前期中国股市的暴跌更是引发全球关 注。2015年10月，中国政府公布今年第三季 度GDP增幅为6.9%，明显低于2015年7.4%的 官方目标。西方经济学家与评论员担心中国经 济放缓对全球的冲击作用......但他们是否过分 担忧了？ 最新消息显示中国经济并无毁灭性崩溃的迹 象。消费者仍在采购昂贵的商品，如购买优质 进口食品，以及看电影和外出用餐等休闲娱乐 消费。出境旅游人数也令人刮目相看：过去12 个月，海外旅游的中国人口数目超过1亿，花 费达1650亿美元。 在中国这样一个庞大多元化的国家，太过 侧重国民经济平均值是一件危险的事。“十二 五”规划确立的“西部大开发”政策使得 中西部许多二三线城市在2014年实现了两位数 的经济增长——例如：重庆增幅10.9%， 武汉9.7%。随着中国经济活动多元化重心由 东部沿海城市向迅速发展的二三线城市转移， 这些城市将成为中国新的经济增长点。面对中 国这样巨无霸的大市场，澳大利亚企业应着重 面向这些新兴发展城市，而非整个国家；注意 中国局部地区的经济发展趋势，而非过于侧重 宏观。 5. 新年携“猴王”腾云驾雾 与中国来往密切的人都了解生肖对中国 人日常生活、长期规划和业务关系的重要 意义。2016年是农历猴年，将与羊年（2015 年）和马年（2014年）大有不同。羊年和马年 出生的人一般更为按部就班、细心周到，他们 安静勤奋；而“猴”则更富冒险精神、雄心勃 勃、活力四射。经过了“马”和“羊”之年 典型的小步稳进前行，澳洲企业已来到澳中关 系蓄势待发、跃进提升的新关口。我们希望并 期待：2016年，澳大利亚企业将以空前的勇 气、无比的创造力和坚定的决心投身中国经济 腾飞大潮，并将两国关系提升到前所未有的新 高度。
CHARTS
图表
LATEST DEALS 近期主要的商业地产交易
CHINA-AUSTRALIA ANNOUNCED M&A VOLUME - FULL YEAR 中国两国已宣布的并购总额－全年 Year Deal Value
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
RECENT MAJOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEALS
Information supplied by Dealogic No. of Deals
$2,847m $6,919m $2,996m $8,935m $8,959m $5,041m $5,484m
47 71 58 71 62 $10,615m 45 39 43
CHINESE CORPS’ ANNOUNCED ACQUISITION OF AUSTRALIAN ENTITIES 中资公司宣布的对澳实体收购 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Information supplied by Dealogic
$2,632m $6,480m $2,598m
$4,730m $5,313m
32 52 46 $8,668m 55 $8,916m 54 $10,293m 40 31 36
AUSTRALIAN CORPS’ ANNOUNCED ACQUISITION OF CHINESE ENTITIES 澳资公司宣布的对华实体收购 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Information supplied by Dealogic
$215m $439m $398m $267m $43m $322m $311m $170m
15 19 12 16 08 05 08 07
最新主要商业物业的交易 VICTORIA 维多利亚洲 ADDRESS 地址: 111 Canning Street, North Melbourne PRICE 价格: $31m BUYER 买家: CBD Development Permit approved Melbourne mixed use development for 304 apartments and a 20 year pre-commitment to a Woolworths supermarket. 墨尔本综合用途的开发用地 已获许可开发304套公寓并与 WOOLWORTHS超市签订一份长达20 年的合作合同。
ADDRESS 地址: Civic Square Shopping Centre PRICE 价格: $30.5m BUYER 买家: Private investor A Woolworths anchored neighbourhood shopping centre located 30km* east of the Melbourne CBD with 6,371sqm of Landholding. WOOLWOTHS超市将入驻 邻近的购物中心。这片土地面积为6,371 平方米，位于墨尔本中央商务区以东 30公里。
ADDRESS 地址: Pensione Melbourne PRICE 价格: $26m BUYER 买家: Third Fan Group The 114-room boutique hotel on Melbourne’s Spencer Street was acquired with a lease to manager 8Hotels. 座落于墨尔本 SPENCER大街上的精品酒店连同一份 与8HOTELS酒店的租约卖给新买家。
ADDRESS 地址: 596 St Kilda Road PRICE 价格: $22.68m BUYER 买家: Lian Beng Realty Pty Ltd 7 level commercial office & retail building which features basement and ground floor retail accommodation together with 5 open plan and light filled office floors. 7层高的 商业办公及零售大厦，地下一层和一楼 为购物商城，另外5层为灯光明亮的办公 楼层。
NEW SOUTH WALES 新南威尔士洲 ADDRESS 地址: 126 Liverpool Street and 338 Pitt Street, Sydney
Information supplied by CBRE
PRICE 价格: $102m BUYER 买家: Visionary Investment Group Both office buildings are on corner sites opposite World Square in the Town Hall part of the CBD, and have significant residential upside. 这两栋办公大楼位于中央商务区 TOWN HALL的WORLD SQUARE购物 中心对面，并有发展成为住宅的空间。
ADDRESS 地址: 17-25 Epping Road, Epping PRICE 价格: $24.3m BUYER 买家: Chiwayland 422-square-metre site in Sydney’s growing northern suburb of Epping. Earmarked for 90 apartments. 座落于悉尼北区正在发展的 EPPING区，422平方米的土地将兴建 422套公寓。
ADDRESS 地址: Chateau Elan and The Vintage Golf Club site, Hunter Valley PRICE 价格: Circa $40m BUYER 买家: Sunshine Insurance Group The buyer plans to further develop the resort site with a $100m six-star resort and second championship golf course. The parcel included 7ha of undeveloped land. 买家计 划进一步发展该度假区，兴建价值$1亿 的六星度假酒店以及第二个锦标赛高尔 夫球场。此单交易还包括7公顷未被开发 的土地。
QUEENSLAND 昆士兰洲 ADDRESS 地址: Coco’s retail centre, Carrara PRICE 价格: $23.9m BUYER 买家: Yue Liu Gold Coast shopping centre. 黄金海岸购物中心。
WESTERN AUSTRALIA 西澳 ADDRESS 地址: 220 Pier Street, Perth PRICE 价格: Circa $15m BUYER 买家: Zone Q The 3,940sqm site is zoned commercial but carries plans for a mixed-use development that would comprise residential apartments, a hotel and retail space. 3,940平方米规划 为商业用途的土地将被兴建集住宅、酒 店及零售商城一体的综合体。
RECENT M&A DEALS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN AND CHINESE INTERESTS
Information supplied by Dealogic
最新中澳两国的购并交易
Pending 待定 OCT
2015 17 SEP
17 SEP
21 SEP
13 OCT
21 OCT
US$904m
US$19m
US$5m
US$372m
US$5m
TARGET 目标公司: Swisse Wellness Group Pty Ltd (83%)
TARGET 目标公司: 8Hotels IP Pty Ltd
TARGET 目标公司: Northland Resources Ltd (49%)
Completed 已成交
DEC
TARGET 目标公司: Port Terminals (99-year lease of Port of Darwin)
TARGET 目标公司: Bauxite Alumina Joint Ventures Pty Ltd (50%)
ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: Private Investor Northern Mining Ltd Landbridge Group Co Ltd Yankuang Group Co Ltd Biostime International INDUSTRY 所在行业: Holdings Ltd INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: Dining & Lodging Mining 矿业 Mining 矿业 Transportation 运输 INDUSTRY 所在行业: 餐饮及住宿 Healthcare 卫生保健
2016 27 OCT
US$101m TARGET 目标公司: Yolarno Pty Ltd (45%)
2 NOV
2 NOV
US$4m
US$71m
TARGET 目标公司: NSX Ltd (11.1558%)
TARGET 目标公司: Scape Student Living Australia Pty Ltd
ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: SHKL Group Ltd Shandong Delisi Food ACQUIROR 收购公司: Co Ltd Industrial & Commercial INDUSTRY 所在行业: Bank of China - ICBC Finance 金融 INDUSTRY 所在行业: Food & Beverage INDUSTRY 所在行业: 食品与饮料 Real Estate / Property 房地产物业
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商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 71
ECONOMY
经济
By Huw McKay, Senior International Economist, Westpac 作者：修·马凯，西太平洋银行机构 金融部高级国际经济师
中国向高收入国家转型的前景
CHINA’S HIGH-INCOME TRANSFORMATION
All eyes are on China’s economy as it slows down a notch from its blistering pace and transforms into a consumer- and services-led model. Consumers are optimistic, the economic policy backdrop is no longer restrictive and there are more reforms underway. But challenges remain particularly in the area of exports and heavy industry. What will 2016 bring for China’s economy? 随着发展减速并转变为消费者和服务主导模式，中国经济再次成为全球注目的焦 点。消费者心态乐观，经济政策环境放宽，各领域的改革仍在推进。但不少挑战， 尤其在出口和重工业领域仍然存在。2016年，中国经济将何去何从？
C
hina’s economy is undergoing a very substantial structural transformation. Its old model of investment, manufacturing and export led growth is being replaced by a consumer and services led model. The new system unavoidably means slower rates of growth, but it is a necessity if China is to successfully navigate the middle income phase of its development and reach its ultimate objective of becoming a high income economy. We stylise the shifting sands of Chinese growth in the following way. In 2014, there were two major weak spots (real estate and heavy industry); and three bright spots (infrastructure, exports and services consumption), with a restrictive policy backdrop that carried over from 2013. In 2015, there are two and a half major changes. Exports are now weak rather than strong 74 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
and the policy backdrop is no longer restrictive. The ‘half’ is in the housing sphere, where sales have rebounded but construction has not.
1.1%
China’s household confidence fell in October to 1.1% below the year before 10月份家庭信心骤 降，比一年前下降 了1.1%。
商道
中
国经济正经历结构性巨变。原有的由投资、 制造业与出口驱动的经济增长正在为消费 者和服务主导模式所取代。新的经济发展体系 意味着增速必然下降，但中国要成功实现由中 等收入发展中国家成为高收入经济体的最终目 标，这是必经途径。 我们用以下方式概括中国经济增长的变迁： 承接上一年度的政策收紧，2014年的中国经济 显示出两个主要弱光点（房地产和重工业） 和三个闪光点（基础设施、出口和服务业消 费）。2015年出现“两个半”重大变化。出口 业由强转弱，政策环境日渐宽松。“半个”变 化则发生在房地产业：销售出现反弹，但是建 设并未迎头赶上。 截至2015年下半年，需要重点关注的是：由 于宽松政策生效会有滞后效应，出口弱势对经 济增长的影响立竿见影。当前环境下，由于信 心不足，及其导致的对信贷需求的意愿不高， 政策的成效受到连环倍减效应的制约。由于整 体而言，经济体系中原材料和信贷需求最密集
ECONOMY
法律
THE NEW MODEL: SECTORAL GROWTH 新模式：行业增长
Source: Westpac Economics, CEIC
%YR
50 FINANCIAL SERVICES
REAL ESTATE SERVICES
TERTIARY TOTAL
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL
金融服务
40
以上三个总和
房地产服务 批发及零售
30
20
10
0
-10 MAR-93
DEC-95
SEP-98
JUN-01
The concern as of late 2015 is that weak exports impact growth immediately whereas easier policy works with a lag. And in the current environment the effectiveness of policy is checked by a weak multiplier effect due to low levels of confidence and an associated lack of demand for credit. Therefore the overall picture remains distinctly underwhelming and far from constructive for the commodity complex, as the weakest elements of the system are, in the main, the most raw material and credit intensive components of demand. Specifically on the housing situation we think that market may be at an important inflection point. The cumulative evidence implies that the genuine price and turnover recovery in tier-1 and certain tier-2 cities seen earlier in 2015, responding to the shift in policy stance, strong pass through from benchmark rate cuts to mortgages and the increase in affordability brought about by the weak performance over the last year, is no longer broadening out to the smaller, less wealthy jurisdictions where developer inventories are most pronounced. In short, the impetus provided by easier housing policies is fading before an aggregate spill-over to the smaller, less wealthy, non-coastal cities from the tier-1 rebound has been achieved. The consumer has been a somewhat lonely bright spot. The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment survey registered four
MAR-04
DEC-06
SEP-09
JUN-12
MAR-15
consecutive gains from June through to September 2015, despite the dramatic collapse in the stock market through this period. Accordingly, the growth in retail sales has been firmer than the other benchmark monthly data releases (industrial production, exports and fixed investment). However, household confidence fell very sharply in the month of October, declining to a level 1.1% below the level of a year before. Along with the fall in overall confidence, household inflation expectations fell heavily and their view on the outlook for jobs and house prices deteriorated. In the latter area, consumers from the Central and Western regions were noticeably more pessimistic than those living on the coast. Consumers in the South-East were the most upbeat about house prices, probably reflecting the strength of the rebound in Shenzhen in the year to date. Against this backdrop, many manufacturers and miners are experiencing falling prices for their output, while overall consumer prices have oscillated within a narrow range just below 2%. The inescapable conclusion from all of the above is that the economy still requires easier financial and fiscal conditions, over and above the most recent measures, which we anticipate will be delivered in due course. Where then does this leave the outlook for 2016? First of all, exports are expected to rebound in 2016, as the advanced economies improve at 商道
The economy still requires easier financial and fiscal conditions... which we anticipate. 的相关行业需求仍最为疲弱，导致中国经济的 总态势显然令人难以乐观，对大宗商品板块更 远非利好。 具体就房地产行业而言，我们认为市场可能 出现重要拐点。多方证据显示：由于政策态势 的转变，按揭基准利率下调，再加上去年的市 场疲软促成居民负担能力提高，2015年年初一 线城市以及某些二线城市的成交价格与交易额 确有实质复苏，但这种反弹已无法延伸到规模 较小、较不富裕的区域；而这些区域正是房地 产开发商库存积压显著的地带。简而言之，房 地产政策放宽导致的一线城市经济回暖，在其 累积的延伸效应还未蔓延到规模较小、较不富 裕的非沿海城市之前，这些政策提供的发展动 力已在消退。 消费者似乎成为其中经济中的唯一亮点。由 西太平洋银行(Westpac)和MNI（国际市场新闻 社）联合发布的中国消费者信心调查显示2015 年6月至9月该指数连续四个月走高——尽管这一
Foreign travel amounted to
2% of China’s $US11 trillion GDP in the year to June 2015.
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 75
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70 CITY HOUSE PRICES: NET BALANCE M/M CHG 70个城市住宅的价格
Source: Westpac Economics, CEIC
NET % OF CITIES
100 80
SECONDARY MARKET 二级市场
60
NEW 新市场
40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -10 FEB-11
FEB-12
FEB-13
FEB-14
FEB-15
EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK & FAMILY FINANCES 就业概况及家庭财务状况
Source: Westpac Economics, CEIC
NET % OF CITIES
120
110
100
90
80 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 就业概况
70 JUN-07
DEC-08
JUN-10
the margin, while major emerging economies stabilise. Secondly, heavy industrial investment is expected to remain very weak and will probably contract outright over the course of the year. Real estate investment will level out in the first half of the year and then move ever so slightly higher in the second half. Overall consumer spending will continue around its 2015 pace, with e-commerce sales and ‘small ticket’ services expected to considerably outpace the growth rate of luxury goods and durables generally. The exception is likely to be foreign travel, which 76 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
EXPECTED PERSONAL FINANCES
CURRENT PERSONAL FINANCES
预期个人财务状况
DEC-11
Exports are expected to rebound in 2016 as the advanced economies improve at the margin.
当前个人财务状况
JUN-13
DEC-14
amounted to around 2% of China’s $US11 trillion GDP in the year to June 2015, and looks set to continue expanding rapidly for the foreseeable future. On the policy front, it will be a very important year for financial reforms, highlighted by the RMB bid for IMF SDR status. It will also be the first year of the 13th five year plan. The plan is an important document in the sense that it clearly signals the strategic priorities of the administration. Forecasts reflect the author’s view only. 商道
时期股市暴跌。相应的，相比其它基准月度数 据（工业生产、出口和固定投资额），零售销 售额也一路走高。但是，10月份家庭信心下降， 比一年前下降了1.1%。随着整体信心的下降， 通胀预期严重回落，消费者对就业和房价的前 景迅速看淡。相对沿海地区而言，中西部地区 消费者明显更为悲观。东南部消费者对房价最 为乐观，深圳今年至今房价强势回升或许就是 这一例证。 在此背景之下，总体消费物价指数在2%以下 的小范围内震荡，而制造和采矿部门许多企业 都面对产出品价格下跌的困境。 综上所述，除最近实施的措施之外，中国经 济仍然需要更为宽松的金融与财政环境。预计 有关机构将适时出台相关举措，我们对此拭目 以待。 那么，2016年前景如何呢？ 首先，由于主要新兴经济体企稳，而发达经 济体将有所发展，2016年中国出口额预计将出 现回升。其次，重工业投资仍会持续疲弱状态， 并有可能全年萎缩。房地产投资在上半年会逐 步企稳，然后在下半年略有提高。整体消费支 出将延续其2015年的步调，而电子商务和小额 物品销售将赶超奢侈品和耐用品增幅。唯一例 外的可能是出国旅游：截至2015年6月，出国旅 游总额约占中国国内生产总值（11万亿美元） 的2%，并且在不久的将来还将继续攀升。 在政策层面，人民币申请国际货币基金组织 （IMF）的特别提款权（SDR）工作的推进，使 2016年将成为中国金融改革的重要一年。2016 年也是中国“十三五”规划的第一年。“五年 规划”从明确体现中央政府的战略优先事项看 来，是国策方针的重要文件。 经济预测只代表著者观点。
ECONOMY
经济
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 77
LEGAL
法律
By Tony Raunic, Partner - Hunt & Hunt 作者：托尼·罗尼奇， Hunt & Hunt 律师事务所合伙人
地产投资漫谈
PROPERTY PERKS AND PITFALLS Are Australian assets in your current or planned investment strategy? If so you need to be aware of changes in the Australian foreign investment rules, writes Hunt & Hunt partner Tony Raunic. 澳大利亚资产是否是您当前或未来投资策略中的目标？如果是的话，您需 要了解澳大利亚外商投资规定中一些渐行渐近的变化。Hunt & Hunt律师 事务所合伙人托尼·罗尼奇为你细细道来。
W
ith a very stable economy, a favourable exchange rate and a new Free Trade Agreement, Australia is more than ever a popular destination for Chinese foreign investment. A booming property market, cultural connections and large numbers of Chinese students have fostered a preference for investment in Australian real estate. But the flood of Chinese investment in Australian property assets has prompted an Australian Government review of the regulation of foreign investment. The review, together with changes under the recent Free Trade Agreement, will see some Chinese investment become easier, while restrictions in some areas will remain the same or be tightened. Chinese foreign investment will continue to be welcomed by Australia, however, investors need to be aware of the recent changes when making investment decisions.
AUSTRALIA'S FOREIGN INVESTMENT MARKET
According to Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), in the 2013/14 financial year foreign investment in Australian assets was valued at A$167.4 billion and included Chinese investment in Australian assets valued 78 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
at A$27.6 billion. Behind the US, Australia is the 借着稳定的经济、优惠的汇率以及新签的 number one target for Chinese foreign 《自由贸易协定》，澳大利亚作为中国对外 investment. While there is a heavy weighting 投资热土的受欢迎程度前所未见。风生水起的地 towards commercial real estate (about 50%), 产市场、枝附叶连的文化纽带以及数量庞大的中 Chinese investors also targeted infrastructure, 国留学生带动了澳大利亚房地产市场的投资 leisure and retail, mining and energy projects. 热潮。 In terms of commercial real estate, 但是，正是这种地产投资热潮开始促使澳大 accounting firm KPMG reported that an 利亚政府重视审视其外商投资制度。此次审查连 overwhelming 72% of Chinese investments in 同新签《自由贸易协定》所推动一系列变化将会 Australia targeted assets in New South Wales, 让中国投资者在澳的投资更为便利，同时某些产 with 13% in Victoria and 12% in Queensland. In 业领域的限制仍将维持现状或收紧。中国投资者 fact, investment in Australian commercial real 依然受到澳大利亚的欢迎，但投资者在做出投资 estate by Chinese interests almost quadrupled 决定之时还需深入了解这些即将迎来的变化。 from 2013 to 2014! Chinese investment in Australian property 澳大利亚的外国投资市场 will continue to increase, spurred on by the 根据澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会（FIRB）的 passage of the China and Australia Free Trade 统计，在2013-2014财年期间，对各种澳大利亚 Agreement (ChAFTA) through the Australian 资产的外商投资总额达到1674亿澳元，其中包 Parliament, and the devaluation of the Yuan 括来自中国的276亿澳元的总投资。除却美国之 coupled with the strong US Dollar and the weak 外，澳大利亚是中国投资者眼中的头号投资目 Australian Dollar drawing Chinese investment 标。虽然中国投资者的重心开始向商业地产 out of the US and into Australia. （大约占到50%的比重）转移，但他们的投资目 The southern Australian State of Victoria has 标还包括各种基础设施、休闲和零售、采矿和能 seen several Chinese backed development 源项目。 proposals in recent times including Australian 在商业地产方面，毕马威会计事务所 Education City - a small city replete with （KPMG）报告称72%的中国在澳资产投资均落 skyscrapers, higher education facilities and 户新南威尔士州，另外的13%和12%则分别落户 residential property in East Werribee, on the 维多利亚州和昆士兰州。实际上，2013年至 rapidly expanding Western fringes of the 2014年期间，中国投资者在澳大利亚开展的商
凭
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Melbourne Metropolitan area. This high-tech mini-city across the 400 hectare site of the former State Research Farm envisages the creation of 70,000 full time sustainable jobs in the immediate region and some 30,000 dwellings. Another large project attracting Chinese investment is the 'Scape Living' proposal for student accommodation in the Melbourne CBD, Victoria. The real estate arm of Chinese financial conglomerate ICBC International Holdings intends to invest nearly A$110 million into student beds. ICBC International is a division of the enormous Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Outside of commercial property, the area
72% of Chinese investments in Australian assets were in NSW. 的中国在澳资产投资均落户 新南威尔士州。
that looks set to boom is investment in agricultural land and businesses. While only currently representing a small portion of Chinese investment in Australia, agribusiness is becoming increasingly attractive as ChAFTA greatly reduces the tariffs on Australian dairy, beef, sheep, meat and wine into China. Chinese companies that want to part of this boom, or indeed, control the food supply chain from the point of production, are increasingly looking for Australian agribusiness opportunities. Chinese investment in Australian agribusiness has been more popular in the Australian states of Victoria and Queensland with a value of A$25.3 million and A$65 million respectively in 2014. Earlier this year Tianjin Bright and Mengde Dairy (a subsidiary of the enormous Bright Food Group – the second largest dairy network in China) settled on the purchase of the prized Duncraig dairy holding. The property in South West Victoria is 366 hectares of prime dairy land. Duncraig is the perfect first investment in Victoria for Tianjin Mengde. It gives Tianjin Mengde direct control over and access to a supply of quality heifers bred on prime Victorian dairy pasture. For an enterprise that milks 20,000 cows at its Tianjin facility, obtaining a quality established herd and 商道
业地产投资几乎翻了四倍之多！ 在澳大利亚议会通过《中澳自由贸易协定》 的助力下，中国在澳大利亚的地产投资必将继续 保持增长；人民币的贬值、美元的走强以及澳元 的疲态也在吸引着中国投资者从美国抽身而退并 投入澳大利亚的怀抱。 位于澳大利亚南部的维多利亚州近年来涌现出 多个中国人投资的开发项目，包括澳大利亚教育 城——位于东威勒比区内的一座小城，坐落在墨 尔本市区迅速扩张的西线之上。教育城内将建设 各种摩天大楼、高等教育设施和住宅项目。这座 占地400公顷、在前州立研究农场土地上拔地而 起的高科技迷你城有望在该地区创造7万个可持 续全职工作岗位，并将建造大约3万套寓所。 另一项吸引中国投资者的大型项目是位于维多 利亚州墨尔本中心商业区的Scape Living学生公 寓。中国金融巨鳄工银国际控股有限公司的不动 产投资部门已计划向该学生公寓项目投资1.1亿 澳元；工银国际是中国工商银行的一家全资分 公司。 在商业地产之外，蓄势待发的还有农业用地以 及农业经营领域的投资。虽然目前农业仅占到中 国在澳投资中的一小部分，但随着《中澳自由贸 易协定》大幅度降低了澳大利亚乳品、牛肉、绵 羊、肉类以及葡萄酒进口到中国的关税，农业经 营的吸引力与日俱增。有意搭乘这班顺风车或实 际目的是从生产环节控制整个食品供应链的中国 企业正在积极寻找澳大利亚的农业投资商机。 在澳大利亚的维多利亚州和昆士兰州，中国 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 79
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投资者更青睐于农业经营；2014年的投资额分 别达到了2530万澳元和6500万澳元。今年年初， 天津光明梦得乳品有限公司（中国第二大乳品巨 头光明食品（集团）有限公司的子公司）完成了 对Duncraig牧场的收购。这块占地366公顷的牧 场位于维多利亚州西南部，是一处品质上佳的 牧场。 Duncraig是天津梦得在维多利亚州的首次完 美投资，帮助天津梦得直接获得了一批在顶级维 多利亚牧场上繁育的优质小奶牛。对于一个在天 津饲养着2万头奶牛的企业，在维多利亚国际深 水港咫尺之内获得一批优质奶牛以及一块成熟的 牧场无疑是走了一着妙棋。
Agribusiness is more attractive as ChAFTA lowers tariffs on Australian goods. pasture located conveniently close to a Victorian international deep water port was critical.
FORTHCOMING LEGISLATIVE CHANGES
The increasing presence of Chinese investment in Australian real property prompted a review 8 0 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
渐行渐近的立法变化 大量中国投资涌入澳大利亚不动产市场促使澳 大利亚开始重新审视其外国投资制度。于12月份 通过的新法规对监管制度做出了一系列的修订， 包括修改审批门槛、收取费用以及外国投资提案 （必须获得政府批准）登记制度。 中国投资者大可不必为这些修正案心存任何顾 虑。澳大利亚的监管制度对于来自少数几个国家 的外国投资颇为优待；一旦《中澳自由贸易协 定》得以实施，中国必能享受到此种优待。但 是，投资者应深入了解这些渐行渐近的修正案当 中的实质，在审视每项澳大利亚地产投资项目价 值之时，将这些修正案纳入考虑范畴。 of the regulation of foreign investment in Australia. New legislation passed in December 审批门槛 introduced a number of amendments to 在澳大利亚，所有的“外国投资者”均需基于 the regulatory scheme including varying 特定的门槛将投资提案提交至外国投资审查委员 approval thresholds, fees and a register for 会审批。当前，外国投资者包括那些一位非澳大 foreign investment proposals that must be 利亚公民或非澳大利亚永久居民持有15%股份的 government approved. 公司；对于非政府投资者，这一比例被增加至 The amendments are by no means cause for 20%。对于中国投资者而言这无疑是一项重大利 alarm from Chinese investors. The regulatory 好，因为这意味着属于监管制度管控范围的公司 scheme in Australia treats foreign investment 数量变少了。 from a select few countries favourably and once 在过去，收购价值超过2.52亿澳元的商业用地 ChAFTA is implemented, China will enjoy this 需要获得外国投资审查委员会的批准。得益于 favourable status. However it is important to be 《中澳自由贸易协定》的签订，这一审批门槛已 aware of the substance of the recent 被提高至11亿澳元（仅适用于中国私人投资 amendments and to take them into account 者），而其它未签署自由贸易协定的国家则继续 when reviewing the merits of an Australian 执行原来的审批门槛；就这为中国投资者赋予了 property investment. 巨大的优势。收购价值超过1500万澳元的农业 用地则仍需获得的外国投资审批委员会的批准。 APPROVALS THRESHOLDS 这条规则适用于所有的外国投资者，并且审批门 Subject to certain thresholds, all 'foreign 槛按累积制计算，即外国投资者在澳大利亚的所 investors' in Australia are required to have 有控股投资均将被计算在内。 their investment proposals approved by the 收购农业企业的审批门槛是5500万澳元。 FIRB. A foreign investor currently includes a 澳大利亚住宅地产投资将继续执行比商业地产 corporation where 15% of the corporation is 更严格的监管制度。收购任意价值的住宅地产均 owned by a single non-Australian citizen or 需获得外国投资审批委员会的批准。收购现有以 non-Australian permanent resident, with this 及先前使用过的住宅地产的提案通常会被拒绝， threshold to increase to 20% for non除非收购这些地产的目的是进行二次开发，但收 商道
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government investors. In good news for Chinese investors, this means that fewer corporations will be captured by the regulatory regime. A proposal to acquire an interest in commercial land that is valued at more than A$252 million previously required FIRB approval. However this threshold has increased to A$1.1 billion for private Chinese investors as a consequence of the ChAFTA and gives Chinese investors an advantage over investors from non-free-trade-agreement countries who remain subject to the lower threshold. A proposal to acquire an interest in agricultural land that is valued at more than A$15 million continues to require FIRB approval. This rule applies equally to all foreign investors with the threshold operating in a cumulative way ie all the foreign Australian holdings are counted for threshold purposes. An A$55 million threshold will apply for purchases of agribusinesses. The regulatory regime for Australian residential property will continue to be stricter than that for commercial property. A proposal to acquire an interest in residential property of any value now requires FIRB approval. Proposals to purchase existing and previously occupied residential property will normally be refused unless they are purchased for redevelopment, but proposals to purchase newly built residential property will normally be approved. The regulatory regime for government investors will also continue to be stricter than
AU $1.1b The FIRB approval threshold for commercial land after ChAFTA. 在《中澳自由贸易协定》签署之 后外国投资审查委员会对收购商 业用地设立的审批门槛。
that for non-government investors. All proposals to acquire an interest in real property of any kind will require FIRB approval. The proposed legislative amendments also impose fees for FIRB for approval. The fees range from A$5,000 for residential applications and up to A$100,000 for certain commercial applications.
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINESE INVESTORS
As with any transaction, it is essential that a foreign investor undertakes comprehensive due diligence activities prior to purchase. A thorough due diligence investigation includes first checking the property title, and then looking at town planning restrictions. Tax implications and finance considerations should also be investigated thoroughly. And lastly, ensure that there is no possibility of land contamination before a contract is signed. In the context of foreign investment, the investor will need to ascertain the value of the property and determine whether or not the FIRB approval threshold is exceeded. If the threshold is exceeded, the investor must ensure that they submit an application to the FIRB which includes full details of the proposed investment, parties, contracts, funding and justification for the proposed investment being in the Australian national interest. The investor must allow at least 30 days for the Australian Treasury to respond to their application. It is common for the Treasury to take more than 30 days in high value or complex transactions. It is crucial that any contract signed by a foreign investor be made conditional upon the obtaining of FIRB approval. If the contract is not made conditional on FIRB approval and that approval is not obtained, investors are likely to at least lose their deposit. ChAFTA will strengthen economic relations between Australia and China and will pave the way for increased foreign investment. While foreign investment in real property is still regulated, private Chinese investors now enjoy more relaxed conditions than investors from other countries. Further, the opportunities for increased agricultural trade between Australia and China are likely to see agribusiness investors willing to jump through the necessary hoops to enjoy the substantial rewards on offer. 商道
Chinese investors will enjoy more relaxed conditions than other countries. 购新建住宅地产的提案通常会得到批准。 对政府投资者将继续执行比非政府投资者更严 格的监管制度。政府投资者收购任何类型不动产 的提案均需获得外国投资审查委员会的批准。 这些预期的修正案亦准备对外国投资审查委 员会的审批工作收费；费用从住宅收购申请的 5000澳元到特定商业地产收购申请的10万澳元 不等。 对中国投资者的影响 与任何其它交易一样，外国投资者必须在收购 之前开展全面的审慎调查。全面的审慎调查包括 先核实地产契据，然后了解各种市镇规划限制， 同时亦需考虑税收和财务等因素；最后，在签订 合同之前确保土地不存在任何污染。 在外国投资的背景下，投资者将需要弄清地产 的价值，并明确是否会超出外国投资审查委员会 的审批门槛。如果超出了审批门槛，则投资者必 须确保向外国投资审查委员会提交一纸申请，其 中包含有与预期投资、当事双方、合同以及资金 来源相关的详细信息，以及预期投资符合澳大利 亚国家利益的说明。 在澳大利亚财政部做出答复之前，投资者至少 需要等待30天的时间。对于巨额或复杂的交易， 财政部的答复时间通常会超过30天。因此，外 国投资者在签订任何合同之时均需包括以获得外 国投资审查委员会批准为前提条件的条款。如果 合同中没有包含此类条款，并且申请未能获得批 准的话，投资者极可能会损失他们的定金。 《中澳自由贸易协定》有望巩固澳中两国之间 的经济联系，并将为更多外国投资的涌入铺平道 路。虽然地产领域的外国投资仍然受到管制，但 与其它国家相比，中国私人投资者将受益于更为 宽松的投资条件。此外，澳中两国之间愈加频繁 的农业贸易必将鼓励农业经营投资者越过层层关 卡，以便获得最终的丰厚回报。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 81
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By Dr Clint Laurent, Managing Director Global Demographics Ltd 作者：克林特·洛朗博士，全球人口 统计有限公司董事总经理
中国人口展望
CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE
In this fascinating excerpt from Clint Laurent’s new book China’s Demographic Future, we look at how mega-trends like China’s ageing population, urban migration and shrinking household sizes are whittling away some markets while creating enormous opportunities in others. 本文中的精彩内容摘自Clint Laurent的新书——《中国人口展望》。我们探讨了人 口老龄化、城市人口流动以及家庭规模变小等一系列重大趋势如何导致中国某些市 场的日益收缩，但同时又为其它领域创造出巨大商机。
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hanges in age profiles and the location of populations do not happen in isolation. There are almost inevitable, consequential changes of other aspects of the relevant population. The success of a business or agency of a government service depends on the ability of those involved understanding how the ‘customer’ base is changing and the new profile of needs that is emerging. In China, as shown in Table 5-1, there is estimated to be 462 million households in 2015, projected to increase to 497 million households by 2025 and then 518 million households by 2035. At first it may seem strange that the total number of households is increasing given that the population is virtually static through to 2028 and then starts to decline thereafter. The increasing number of households is a function of decreasing household size, which in turn is a reflection of the ageing of the population. Basically as the population ages there are fewer family households with children and an increasing number of two-person empty nester households. Furthermore, it should be 82 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
noted that the children from these households have now formed their own two- or threeperson household. As a result of trends such as rural to urban migration, the net effect is that the number of rural households are projected to decline from 189.5 million to 111 million over the next 20 years. This is a substantial decline. In contrast the number of urban households is, as might be expected, projected to grow and quite rapidly—from 277 million to 406.8 million in 20 years. That means a projected average demand of 7.4 million extra households a year for the decade to 2025 and 6 million a year through to 2035. That is a lot of extra apartments and does suggest the current concern about a property bubble is misplaced. Already the smaller household is important as a proportion of all households. In urban areas, one- and two-person households are 40% of all households. For rural areas an estimated 32% of households are two or less persons. The trend over the next two decades is clearly for the number of one- and two-person households to increase both as a proportion of 商道
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龄结构以及人口集聚地的变化并不会孤立 发生。相应人口某些方面的变化几乎是社 会发展过程中难以避免的结果。企业以及政府服 务机构的成功，取决于其能否了解这些人口作为 其“顾客”群体在如何发生变化，及其应对随之 涌现的各种新需求的能力。 如图5-1中所示，2015年中国共有大约4.62亿 户家庭，到2025年和2035年这一数字将分别上 升至4.97亿户以及5.18亿户。乍看之下，略显不 寻常的是，虽然总户数在不断增长，但一直到 2028年之前人口总量几乎没有任何变化，并且 自此起开始进入下降通道。但家庭数量的持续增 长是家庭规模持续收缩的结果，这也进而反映出 人口正老龄化。 基本上，随着人口的老龄化，有子女的家庭数 量将会变得越来越少，而只有两位老人的空巢家 庭数量将来越来越多。此外，值得一提的是，来 自这些空巢家庭的子女如今都已组建了自己的两 人或三人型家庭。 未来20年内，在农村人口向城市流动等趋势 的影响下，农村家庭户的数量将从1.895亿户骤 跌至1.11亿户。 与此相反，正如预期中的那样，未来20年内 城市家庭户的数量将从2.77亿户迅速攀升至 4.068亿户。这意味着在截至2025年的前十年之
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This suggests concern about a property bubble is misplaced. households and total number. For urban they are projected to grow from 40% to 44% and in number from 109 million to 178 million which is a very significant growth. It is also interesting to look at the five-plus person households. Due to the One Child Policy it is reasonable to assume that the great majority of such households are extended family households. Few households have more than two children by 2015, so the five-plus member households are typically adults from the extended family (most probably elderly parents). While such households are declining as a proportion of all households in both urban and rural areas, do note that in urban areas they are increasing in absolute number – from 28 million to 35 million indicating a potential need for elder care services. It is also important to look at the inverse of this. That is the incidence of the no-child households. The household with no children in it is a growth market. In total they are projected to increase from 266 million households (182 million urban and 85 million rural) in 2015 to reach 336 million in 2035 (280 million urban and 57 million rural) by 2035. It is also an important market as children are expensive and account for a significant proportion of the non-discretionary spend of a household. Households with no children in them typically have the same number of wage earners but fewer dependents and hence a greater level of per capita income and discretionary spending power. It is these childless urban households that are driving retail spending in China at present.
URBAN AGE / LIFE STAGE PROFILE.
Figure 5-2 shows the projected change in the Age / Life Stage profile of the urban population between 2015 and 2035. In reviewing this chart it must be remembered that most of these people are already alive today – they are just getting older and moving through these stages. It is considered unlikely that the migration rate will be much slower or faster than that forecast in this report. So the forecast of the age / life stage profile of the urban population shown in Figure 5-2 has a high degree of reliability. This is good as it has a very important story to tell. The first important point is that all urban life stages/ age segments are projected to show some growth in absolute size over the next two decades. But it is the next decade to 2025 that is the most dramatic in terms of behaviour. For the next decade the Young Adult segment is projected to decline from 102 million to 88 million – a drop of 15% in a decade. This has to have consequences for some sectors such as fast food, entertainment, etc. It means that, unless a company can increase its market share or spend per customer, it faces a declining total revenue simply as a result of a declining consumer base. The Family Stage shows a 23% increase in size to 2025, after which there is no further growth expected. This will mean that after 2025 the household product sector will be dependent on an increased spend per person or household for growth (which, with increasing affluence, is likely) rather than an increasing number of family households as in the past. 商道
内，每年平均会产生740万新增家庭户的额外住 房需求；而在截至2035年的后十年内，每年平 均会产生600万新增家庭户的额外住房需求。如 此之多的额外住房需求，说明眼下关于地产泡沫 的顾虑过于杞人忧天。 目前，更小的家庭户已经在所有家庭户当中占 据着较大的比重。在城市地区，一人及两人型家 庭户占所有家庭户的40%。在农村地区，预计有 32%的家庭户为两人或两人以下的家庭户。 无论是从比重还是总数角度来看，未来二十年 内一人及两人家庭户数量的增长是明显趋势。在 城市地区，一人及两人家庭户所占比重有望从 40%上升至44%，而数量方面预计将从1.09亿户 激增至1.78亿户。 五人以上家庭户的情况颇有特点。考虑到独生 子女政策的原因，我们可以合理地推定绝大部分 此类家庭均属于扩大式家庭。截至2015年，只 有少数家庭育有两位以上的子女，因此五人以上 家庭户通常是来自于扩大式家庭中的成年人（大 部分可能是年长的父母）。虽然在城市和农村地 区此类家庭在所有家庭户中所占的比重均将进入 下行通道，但请注意在城市地区这种家庭的绝对 数量却在稳步上升之中——从2800万户增长至 3500万户——这意味着老年护理服务的潜在需 求必将迎来增长。 我们还要关注事物的另一面——没有孩子的 家庭户。无子家庭户的数量将从2015年的2.66 亿户（其中城市1.82亿户，农村8500万户）上升 至2035年的3.36亿户（其中城市2.8亿户，农村 5700万户）。这也是一块很重要的市场，因 为养育儿女的投入不小，并占到每户家庭中 必要开支的大头。无子家庭通常也有双薪收入, 但依附于他们的抚养对象少，因此人均收入 水平以及可自由支配开支能力都比较高。城市中 的无子家庭户目前正是中国的零售消费增长的生 力军。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 8 3
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462 million The number of Chinese households in 2015. 2015年中国共有大约 4.62亿户家庭。
Basically over the next decade this segment moves from a ‘growing quantity of customers’ to a ‘growing quality of customer spend’ strategy. As a result of the change in the One Child Policy in 2014, the ‘Child’ segment is projected to show significant growth in the next decade to 2025 - a lift of 36%. This is totally a function of a short term impact of couples having the (now permitted) second child in the next four years where prior to 2014 they could not. In contrast, the Working Age Empty Nester Segment is projected to show significant growth in the future. In the medium term the growth is really quite considerable, from 301 million to 380 million. That is a projected
addition of 8 million persons per year in this age / life stage group. This is significant as this group is very important commercially as well as in terms of share of consumers. If you exclude 0 to 14 year olds from making household expenditure decisions, this segment will account for half of all household decision makers in urban China. In terms of commercial importance, it must be noted that these households are now typically two-person households with an estimated average of 1.6 wage earners and only 0.4 dependents. This is a significant change from a household say with 1.6 wage earners, and two adults and one child. Assuming an average urban household income of RMB125,516, this means that the family household (two adults and one child) has a per capita income of RMB 41,838. But with the child having left home then the per capita income increases to RMB 62,758 (a 50% increase) because there is no reduction in wage earners but a 33% reduction in dependents. Do note that not all this additional per capita income ends up in consumption expenditure. A significant and increasing proportion is saved or invested. Nonetheless the combination of increased spending power and an increased number of persons/households in this segment makes this a very potent consumption market. Almost certainly, even with very conservative GDP growth forecasts, the older consumer spend will be a very significant driver of retail activity in the next two decades.
城市人口的年龄/人生阶段的概况分析 图5-2显示了2015-2035年期间城市人口的年 龄/人生阶段档案的预期变化情况。在审视这张 表的过程中，请注意大部分这些人今天依然在 世——他们只不过正不断长大变老并经历这些人 生阶段。我们预计实际人口流动率与本报告中的 预测大致接近。 因此，图5-2中所示的城市人口年龄/人生阶段 分析相当可靠。这点很重要，因为这在稍后说明 了几个非常重要的方面。 第一个要点就是未来二十年内所有的城市人口 人生阶段/年龄组别的绝对规模均将有所增长， 但增长最明显的莫过于未来的十年（到2025 年）。在未来十年内，青年成人组别的人口预计 将从1.02亿下滑至0.88亿（十年之内减少了 15%），并将给某些产业部门（比如快餐、娱乐 等等）造成影响。这意味着一家公司除非设法提 升市场份额或顾客的人均支出，否则该公司将会 由于消费者基数的减少而导致总收入的下降。 到2025年，家庭阶段组别的人口规模将增长 23%，预期此后将不会进一步增长。这意味着从 2025年起，家用消费品产业部门的增长将需依 赖每人或每户支出的增长（生活水平的日益富足 将提升这种可能性），而非像过去那样依赖于家 庭户数量的增长。未来十年，面向这一组别的营 销策略需要侧重从“增长顾客数量”过渡到“提 升顾客消费的质量”上来。 由于2014年独生子女政策的放开，未来十年 内（到2025年）儿童组别的人口有望迎来重大 增长（增长幅度可达36%）。这将主要源于未来 四年内大量夫妇生育第二个孩子（在2014年之 前不被允许）所带来的短期影响。 相比之下, 未来工作年龄空巢老人组别的人口 将有显著增长。从中期来看，这种增长的幅度相
TABLE 5-1: PROFILE OF NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS AND AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 表5-1：家庭户数量以及平均家庭规模
Source: Global Demographics Ltd
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
395.2
430.4
462.1
482.5
496.7
507.8
517.9
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
185.1
232.5
276.6
311.9
347.0
378.6
406.8
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
Urban as % of total households 城市地区户数占总户数比例
47%
54%
59%
65%
70%
75%
79%
Rural Households (millions) 农村地区户数（百万）
210.2
197.9
189.5
170.6
149.6
129.1
111.1
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.8
Total Households (millions) 总户数（百万） Persons per household - Total 每户人数（综合） Urban Households (millions) 城市地区户数（百万） Persons per household - Urban 每户人数（城市）
Persons per household - Rural 每户人数（农村）
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FIGURE 5-2: LIFE STAGE PROFILE OF THE URBAN POPULATION 2015 TO 2035 图5-2：2015-2035年期间城市人口的人生阶段/年龄档分析图
PERSONS (MILLIONS) IN LIFE STAGE/AGE SEGMENT 人生阶段/年龄组别中的人口数量（百万）
2015
2025
2035
Source: Global Demographics Ltd
414
CHANGE 2015-35
380
301 255
255
206
126
129
117
102
92
197
124
113
88
125
72 48
37 15 CHILD 0-14 YRS
YOUNG ADULT 15-24 YRS
However, like all opportunities this does not last forever. The growth rate of this important urban consumer segment is projected to slow significantly for the subsequent decade to 2035. It will add 34 million, or 3.4 million per annum (compared with 8 million per annum the previous decade). This is a significant decline in growth rate, but not in number of consumers. Finally, the Retired Segment, it remains small as a proportion of the total population, but fast growing. The growth rate is moderated a little as a result of an increasing number of persons aged 65 to 74 being included in the previous life stage group (Working Age Empty Nesters) as they or their partner are still employed. But nonetheless it is projected to almost double in number of persons in the next 10 years. Furthermore, a proportion of these persons will have significant funds and therefore create a useful opportunity in the ‘aged’ market. This is an edited excerpt from China’s Demographic Future by Clint Laurent. The book contains chapters on the predicted changes in urbanisation, education, household incomes and expenditure patterns, as well as more detail about the calculations behind the above figures.
FAMILY STAGE 25-39 YRS
当之大——从3.01亿增加至3.8亿。预计每年这 一年龄/人生阶段组别将增加800万人口。由于这 个组别从商业角度来看十分重要，并在消费者群 体中也占据着较大的比重，故这种增长颇具意 义。如果将0-14岁组别排除在家庭支出决策者之 外的话，那么这一组别将占去中国城市人口当中 所有家庭决策者的半壁江山。 从商业重要性角度来看，这些家庭通常为两人 型家庭，工薪收入者平均人数为1.6，并且只有 0.4个受抚养者。这与工薪收入者平均人数为 1.6、拥有两位成年人以及一个孩子的家庭户 相比是一个重大的变化。假设城市家庭的平均收 入是125,516元人民币，那么该家庭户（两位成 年人和一个孩子）的人均收入是41,838元人民 币。但在子女离开家庭之后，人均收入将增加 至62,758元人民币（增长了50%）；这是因为 工薪收入者人数没有减少，而受抚养者人数减少 了33%。 请注意并非所有这些额外的人均收入都被用于 消费支出。这当中有相当一部分（同时比例亦在 不断扩大）被存入银行或用于投资。尽管如此， 这一组别支出能力的提高以及人口/家庭数量的 增加造就了一个强有力的消费市场。毫无疑问， 即便按最保守的GDP增速来预测，年长消费者 的消费支出仍将是未来二十年内零售业增长的一 项重要推动因素。 但是，与所有的商机一样，这种情况不会永远 持续。这一重要城市消费群体的增长速度将在截 至2035年的后十年期间显著放缓，总计增加量 仅为3400万，相当于每年增加340万（而前十年 商道
WORKING AGE EMPTY NESTER 40-64/74 YRS
RETIRED 65/75 YRS+
The household with no children is a growth market. 期间每年可增加800万）。虽然增速严重放缓， 但消费者总量并没有减少。 最后，退休人口组别仅在总人口中占较小比 重，但是数量却在快速增加之中。由于越来越多 的65-74岁人口被归入前一个人生阶段组别（工 作年龄空巢老人）——因为他们或他们的配偶仍 在就业——故这一组别的增长率并不明显。尽管 如此，未来十年内该组别的人口总数将会翻番。 此外，该部分人口手中持有大量的储蓄，是老年 市场中的重要商机所在。 本文摘自Clint Laurent的《中国人口展望》。 此书含有与城市化、教育、家庭收支模型预期变 化有关的章节，以及上述图表中相关数据的推算 详情。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 8 5
An adventure on the TRUE NORTH is one of Australia’s most revered holidays! Bigger ships cannot go where we go! Extended periods at sea are specifically excluded and daily activities can include scenic walks, fishing, snorkelling, diving, scenic flights in the ship’s helicopter and cultural events. We deploy comfortable expedition boats (not rubber boats) and discover wilderness in small groups. An AUSTRALIAN crew uniquely chaperones every experience. Beware of imitations and discover for yourself why our guests consistently remark “that’s the best holiday I have ever had!” See the Kimberley’s waterfalls at their best! Limited sailings during March and April!
North Star Cruises Australia Twenty Five Years of Adventure
Tel: (+61 8) 9192 1829 Email: cruise@northstarcruises.com.au www.northstarcruises.com.au
LUXURY LODGES OF AUSTRALIA
HIGHER LIFE 气派生活
LIFESTYLE, SHOPPING, FASHION, LUXURY 时尚生活、奢华购物、品味时尚、奢侈单品
HUBLOT
OVER THE MOON 宇舶推出全新经典融合系列AEROFUSION MOONPHAS腕表。此款腕表的特别之处并不 是45毫米的表壳，也不是蓝宝石表盘上装有显 示完整日历的年历装置，而是6点钟位置计时盘 显示镂空式月相。经典融合系列AEROFUSION MOONPHAS王金腕表售价：38,000澳元。
The Classic Fusion Aerofusion Moonphase collection is a first for Hublot – but not for its porthole shaped 45mm case, nor its sapphire dial that showcases a complete calendar movement. What sets this collection apart is the introduction of an industrial-looking moonphase. Classic Fusion Aerofusion Moonphase King Gold $38,000. hublot.com
商道
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奢侈品天地
MOST WANTED
Everything luxury — from one-off designer pieces to lavish cars 从设计名家的限量版精品到新款 豪华车。
GET A GRIP
橡胶豆豆鞋底是托德斯鞋履的特色，通常在经典的轻便驾车鞋中找到。这次出 现在系带鞋上，提供高度抓地力和稳定性，让您行走在市中心、穿梭于每个会议 室之间也“平步青云”。售价：775澳元。 A signature Tod’s feature is the rubber outsole with embossed pebbles, usually found on their classic driving shoes. On a lace-up shoe the round bumps provide the grip and stability you need when pacing through the city from boardroom to boardroom. $775, tods.com
FINER TIMES
一份至臻完美的礼物——萧邦HAPPY SPORT 30毫米自动上 链腕表，一颗颗的旋动钻石在表壳上翩然炫舞。而今，HAPPY SPORT以较小的尺寸耀世回归，优雅的表盘搭配自动上链机芯， 在美学设计和技术性能上均达至巅峰。售价：7,640澳元起。
SETTING UP SHOP
The perfect gift for a loved one, Chopard’s Happy Sport 30mm Automatic is a flawless mix of daring and modern as steel meets diamonds in these timepieces. It now returns with a smaller, elegant dial with a self-winding movement, an accomplishment on both the aesthetic and technical level. From $7,640, chopard.com
随着HARROLDS成功打进澳大利亚男装市场，将进一步扩充店内其 中一个男装高端品牌TOM FORD，建立“店中店”，让TOM FORD在 HARROLDS里也有自己的店面，并将有更多样化的产品供顾客选购。 Following great success in the Australian menswear market, Harrolds is expanding its Tom Ford, Westfield shop-in-shop to feature its own dedicated store front. With a physical expansion, customers can expect a wider variety of Tom Ford products on racks. harrolds.com.au
TRAVEL COMPANION DUNHILL的CHASSIS大型手提包采用碳纤维印 花牛皮精制而成，搭配植鞣牛皮饰边和青铜饰面 不锈钢硬件，尽显时尚格调。售价：POA。
Crafted with exceptional quality, Dunhill’s Chassis Rucksack is finished with the prestige expected from a briefcase. Carbon fibre printed cowhide and vegetable tanned leather trims with gunmetal finish hardware make this rucksack your ultimate style-savvy, practical travel companion. $POA, dunhill.com
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商道
SCENTS OF NATURE
杰尼亚体现出意大利文化和风格的精髓，其全新 推出的ACQUA DI BERGAMOT淡香水释放出 浓厚的意大利气息。香水蕴藏佛手柑的馥郁香 气，佛手柑是柑橘类的一种，而香水中所采用的 佛手柑採自意大利卡拉布里亚，为杰尼亚香氛独 家栽种的佛手柑田中。100毫升售价：140澳元。
问答 Q&A 澳大利亚高档腕表经销商J FARRENPRICE董事长朱利安·法伦·普赖 斯，讲述了他对于海洋、腕表和家乡 悉尼的热爱。
Ermenegildo Zegna exemplifies the essence of Italian culture and style, and its new fragrance is no different. Acqua Di Bergamot is created with Italian Bergamot – a type of orange – found only in Calabria, harvested exclusively for Zegna Fragrances. 100ml $140, zegna.com.au
腕表的魅力？WHAT DRAWS YOU TO WATCHES? 稀世珍贵，美丽绝伦，工艺精致。年代在变，经典的腕表 却永恒如一，是可以代代相传的宝物。现在多数的东西都 会损坏，然后被遗弃，唯有腕表的价值是永恒的。 Rarity, beauty and craftsmanship – a classic watch is timeless, something you can pass down the generations. Most things today break down and get replaced, but these watches have lasting value.
A NEW GENERATION 新一代宝马7系不仅车身更轻盈，还搭载了领先的高端技术。配备全新升级V8 引擎、星空全景天窗以及全城瞩目的遥控停车功能。通过智能钥匙便能控制 车辆自动停车，无需驾驶者。售价：217,000澳元起。 While the latest Generation 7 Series is lighter, has updated its V8 engine and boasts a Sky Lounge Panorama glass roof, the real talking point is its remote control parking. That’s right – the car can pop itself in your garage at the touch of a button, without a driver behind the wheel. From $217,000, bmw.com.au
ONE FOR THE BOOKS
万宝龙全新列夫·托尔斯泰书写工具向以代表作 《战争与和平》和《安娜·卡列尼娜》而闻名于世的俄罗 斯最重要的作家之一致敬。售价：1,350澳元。 Leo Tolstoy, the Russian author of epic works such as War and Peace and Anna Karenina, is the latest figure of world literature to be honoured with a limited edition Montblanc Writers Edition, inspired by his life and cultural legacy. $1,350, montblanc.com
商道
悉尼美食？PLACES TO EAT IN SYDNEY? ROCKPOOL BAR AND GRILL酒吧烧烤店的东西很美味， 服务也很周到，一定不能错过。此外，我最近去了岩石区 （THE ROCKS）一家叫SAKÉ的日本餐馆，这里的高端日 本料理非常不错。 I don’t think you can go past Rockpool Bar and Grill for a beautiful meal and excellent service. On a different note, I’ve recently been introduced to Saké, a Japanese restaurant in The Rocks, which does some fantastic high-end Japanese food. 悉尼情结？WHAT DO YOU LOVE ABOUT SYDNEY? 我一直生活在这片土地上，深深热爱着这里的海洋和港 湾。从13岁开始，我就喜欢上了海上赛艇和帆船运动。悉 尼有着宜人的气候和迷人的海湾，是个宜居之所。 I’ve lived in the same three square kilometres all my life. I’ve always loved the ocean and the harbour. My passion is ocean racing and sailing, which I’ve been doing since I was 13. Sydney’s real attraction is its harbour and climate, making it a great place to live. 探索其它城市？APPROACH TO EXPLORING A NEW CITY? 我一直尽量让自己劳逸结合，不让工作占据我的全部时 间。我很幸运，不但在瑞士滑过雪，还在克罗地亚、希腊 和土耳其驾驶过帆船。我每次出差的时候都会去体验一下 当地文化。澳大利亚的话，最近我跟家人去了一趟卡卡杜 国家公园（KAKADU），真是大开眼界。 I try to combine business with pleasure so that it’s not all work. I’ve been lucky enough to do some skiing in Switzerland and plenty of yachting around Croatia and Greece. As for travel in Australia, my family and I recently took a trip to Kakadu.
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 89
STYLE 时尚单品
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The latest in fashion from the world’s biggest designer brands 来自一些世界最大的设计师品牌 最新的时尚单品。 1
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5
4
AHEAD of TIME
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Tradition meets technology
走在时间的前沿 传统与科技结合 7
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1.Frederique Constant Smartwatch, $1,895, frederique-constant.com.au 2. Motorola Moto 360, $329, motorola.com 3. Apple Watch, $1,029, apple.com/au 4. Sony SmartWatch 3 SWR50, $POA, sonymobile.com/au 5. Huawei Watch, $POA, huawei.com 6. LG Watch Urbane, $449, lg.com/au 7. Huawei Watch, $POA, huawei.com, 8. Samsung Gear S2 Classic, $598.99, samsung.com/au 9. Apple Watch Hermès, $1,950, apple.com/au
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商道
WINE 佳酿 A tour of some of Australia’s finest wine regions 澳大利亚一些最好的葡 萄酒产区之旅。
澳大利亚较独特的葡萄酒更值得投资
“澳大利亚的潜力是近乎无限， 并且越发受到关注”
BEST OF THE BARREL
风味浓郁、口感强劲的红葡萄酒使澳大利亚 （往往需几十年）之后，口感逐渐圆润，变得 走上了国际舞台，但澳洲这片广袤的土地上有 柔和而甜美。当法国的勃艮第还在用黑比诺吸 着60多处葡萄产区，可以酿制各种风格的美 引世界目光的时候，澳大利亚的许多葡萄酒产 酒。从新南威尔士气候严寒、高海拔的葡萄园， 区已经异军突起。如果您正在找寻优质葡萄酒， 到玛格丽特河（MARGARET RIVER）温暖如春 就去雅拉谷、莫宁顿半岛（MORNINGTON 的海滨酒庄，再到气候更为凉爽的雅拉谷 PENINSULA）、塔斯马尼亚和更鲜为人知的吉 （YARRA VALLEY）和塔斯马尼亚的黑比诺产 普斯兰岛（GIPPSLAND）以及马斯顿山区 地，澳大利亚的潜力是近乎无限，并且越发受 （MACEDON RANGES）看看。这些地区产出 到关注。虽然南澳大利亚种类繁多的畅销葡萄 的葡萄酒都无可挑剔，而且余韵悠长。同时， 酒仍然深受广大品酒师和收藏家的青睐，但澳 风味更为浓郁的红葡萄酒也不容忽略。除了传 大利亚其它地区的佳酿更是别具一格，不可错 统的巴罗萨谷（BAROSSA VALLEY）和克莱尔 过。澳大利亚不但有许多“鲜为人知”的地区 谷（CLARE VALLEY），还有许多地区值得一 盛产红白葡萄酒，并且享有很高声望，非常值 去 。 西 斯 寇 （ H E A T H C O T E ） 、 宝 利 丝 得投资。猎人谷（HUNTER VALLEY）可以说是 （PYRENEES）、麦嘉伦（MCLAREN VALE）等 澳大利亚最古老的葡萄酒产地，因其赛美蓉白 葡萄酒产区的气候温暖，土壤类型各异，生产 葡萄酒而闻名于世。浅龄猎人谷赛美蓉带有几 的优质葡萄酒平衡度极佳，单宁集中，陈年窖 分青涩、但结构精致、十分爽口。陈年窖藏 藏后酒体慢慢成熟。 92 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
2013冷溪山酒庄珍藏黑皮诺干红葡萄酒 产地：维多利亚州雅拉谷 澳大利亚著名葡萄酒评家詹姆斯·哈利迪于 1985年创建冷溪山酒庄，其酒庄酿造出品质 卓越的葡萄酒，并且品质随着年日不断提升。 这款酒口感顺滑，带有浓郁的果香气，是国 际上备受好评的优质黑皮诺葡萄酒。 售价：每瓶人民币852元 2010天瑞1号桶赛美蓉干白葡萄酒 产地：新南威尔斯州猎人谷 具有猎人谷赛美蓉值得收藏与长寿的典型风 格，口感丰腴，果味馥郁，充满柑橘的清新 脆爽口感并且带有来自矿物的酸味。这瓶浅 龄葡萄酒与海鲜搭配得非常出众。 售价：每瓶人民币600元 2013西斯寇单一葡萄园设拉子葡萄酒 产地：维多利亚州西斯寇 西斯寇酒庄的首席酿酒师是屡获殊荣的汤姆· 卡尔森。这款设拉子比预期中的口感更顺滑， 味道更辛辣、更可口，并获得葡萄酒收藏家 的好评，具有二十年的陈年能力。 售价：每瓶人民币500元
“The potential from Australia is nearly limitless, and increasingly interesting”
BEST OF THE BARREL
Australia’s more unique wines are proving to be investment-worthy Full-flavoured, powerful red wines helped put Australian wine on the international map, but there’s a wealth of styles possible from the 60-plus wine-growing regions found across the large island nation. From cold-climate, high-altitude vineyards in NSW to the warm, beachside estates of Margaret River, and across to the fine pinot noirs found in the cooler wine growing regions of Yarra Valley and Tasmania, the potential from Australia is nearly limitless, and increasingly interesting. While rich, blockbuster wine styles from South Australia still excite many connoisseurs and wine collectors, it’s some of Australia’s more unique wines that should be on their radar. Not only are some of Australia’s lesser-known regions providing exceptional drinking for whites and reds, but they’re also leading the way for prestige wines worthy of investment. The Hunter Valley is arguably Australia’s oldest wine region, and famed for wines produced from the white grape Semillon. When
young, Hunter Valley Semillons are tightly wound, finely structured and highly refreshing, but with time in cellar (often decades) they mellow and become soft and honeyed. While Burgundy still holds the wine world’s attention for fine Pinot Noir, there are exceptional, elegant examples to be found in various Australian wine regions. For those seeking fine wines, try examples from the Yarra Valley, Mornington Peninsula, Tasmania and the lesser-known regions of Gippsland and Macedon Ranges. Standout wines are seamless and show superb length of flavour. Meanwhile, fuller flavoured red wines shouldn’t be forgotten, but exploration beyond the traditional Barossa Valley and Clare Valley is worthwhile. Wine regions that have warm climates and varied soil profiles, like Heathcote, Pyrenees and McLaren Vale, are producing commanding wines of exceptional balance, concentration and an ability to mature gracefully in cellars. 商道
Coldstream Hills Reserve Pinot Noir 2013 From: Yarra Valley, Victoria Famed Australian wine critic James Halliday established Coldstream Hills in 1985, and the quality continues to increase. This reserve wine is refined, shows great poise of fruit, and sits in the upper echelon of international pinot noir. Price: ¥852 per bottle
Tyrrell’s Vat 1 Semillon 2010 From: Hunter Valley, New South Wales One of the most cellar-worthy, long-lived and finest examples of classic Hunter Valley Semillon. Expect citrus-scented perfume, mineral-charged acidity and exceptional line and length of flavour. As a young wine, it’s outstanding with delicate seafood dishes. Price: ¥600 per bottle
Heathcote Estate Single Vineyard Shiraz 2013 From: Heathcote, Victoria Heathcote Estate wines are produced by award-winning winemaker Tom Carson. This Shiraz feels more refined, spicier and savoury than expected. Prized by in-the-know wine collectors, it should cellar well for 20 years. Price: ¥500 per bottle
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RESTAURANTS 餐厅 Fine dining in Sydney, Melbourne, Shanghai and Beijing 悉尼、墨尔本、上海及北京的高端餐厅。
SHANGHAI 上海
GLAM
坐落于外滩的Glamour酒吧 在过去的十年内备受欢迎，成为 人们在外滩畅饮欢聚的热点， 可惜于去年年底结业。现在再 次换土重来，米氏西餐厅集团接 手Crystal Room餐厅的原址，比 邻M on the Bund餐厅，以新名 字Glam魅蓝餐厅酒廊闪亮登 场。酒廊小吃包括两个小小的羊 奶酪甜菜挞（人民币32元）、肉 94 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
味浓郁口感丰富的血肠烤面包 （人民币48元）、配上清新的 柚子和腌青芒果的牛排塔塔 （人民币68元）、外脆内软的黑 松露奶酪烤多士（人民币38元） 是夜宵的最佳选择，还有配搭辛 辣猪肉粒（人民币48元）一流的 西西里饺子（人民币46元），每 一款小吃都美味可口得让人欲罢 不能。 商道
There was an outpouring of sorrow when Glamour Bar closed late last year – the venue had been a staple of Bund-side drinking for the best part of a decade. But now it’s back, in a self-referential manner of speaking, minus three letters. The new dining lounge and bar from the M Restaurant Group has taken over the space that was formerly the Crystal Room, adjacent to M on the Bund – but make no mistake, Glam is a different beast to its predecessor. Small, bar-friendly bites start from 32 RMB for two tiny but balanced beet-and-goat-cheese tarts. For 48 RMB you’ll get a small plate of morcilla pintxos that are rich and meaty in flavour, and crazily moreish. A lighter bite comes in the form of the ‘Thai Tah Tah’ (68 RMB), which offers a generous serving of spiced beef tartare with pomelo and pickled green mango for a fresh and fragrant snack. The ‘Truffled Cheesey Toastie’ (38 RMB) provides the perfect drinks accompaniment or late-night snack. It’s simple, but the light crunch of the bread, coupled with the pillowy soft interior, makes it extremely satiating. A stand out on the menu, the cubes of spiced pork (48 RMB) with chilli jam – taste explosions that are a must-order. Glam certainly lives up to it’s name, providing lush interiors where delicious drinks and snacks can be enjoyed.
MELBOURNE 墨尔本
DINNER BY HESTON BLUMENTHAL
The all-new sleek interiors at Crown
英国名厨Heston Blumenthal选中 了澳大利亚其中一个最顶级的娱乐 场所——墨尔本皇冠娱乐中心来开 设他首家海外餐厅，让一众美食老 饕兴奋不已。Dinner by Henston Blumenthal餐厅呈献以现代手法演 绎深具历史意义的英式食谱，有些 菜品的渊源甚至可追溯至15世纪手 稿，或是国王亨利八世皇家法院极 具戏剧性的菜品。
Ice cream trolley
To the absolute glee of foodies Down Under, renowned chef Heston Blumenthal has chosen one of Australia’s most exclusive entertainment areas, The Crown Melbourne, to open his first permanent restaurant outside of the United Kingdom. Inspired by 15th century manuscripts and the fanciful, dramatic dishes of the Royal courts of King Henry VIII, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal offers diners a very modern interpretation of historic British gastronomy. dinnerbyheston.com.au
BEIJING 北京
TRB BITES
几个月前我们告别了马克南四合轩餐厅后倍 感可惜，不过也代表着另一个新的开始。一 周之内马克南四合轩的原址便被北京著名的 TRB好客餐饮集团接手，并宣布推出一家名为 TRB Bites @ Courtyard的新餐厅。餐厅的特 别之处是打破套餐常规，让客人随意搭配组 合，自订套餐。这意味着您可以選一道主菜 然后连吃四道甜点、或是五道都是主菜、三 道均是沙拉，任意选择，尽情享受。
It was sad to hear that Brian McKenna @ The Courtyard would be closing a few months back, but happily that cloud had a silver lining. Within a week, the folks behind Beijing’s iconic Temple Restaurant Beijing (TRB) announced they would be taking over the space to introduce a new concept: TRB Bites @ The Courtyard. The best part? You get to customise your set menu – and we mean customise. Go for four desserts and a main, five mains, three salads. You name it, you got it. Now that’s what we like. trb-bites.com
Meat Fruit (c.1500); spiced plum, chicken liver parfait and grilled bread
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H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 95
HOTELS 酒店
UP AND COMING 即将来袭
Private beaches, personal butlers and sky-high lounges – we’ve picked out some of the most luxurious hotels Australia and China have to offer 私家海滩、私人管家服务和高入云端的餐厅—— 我们精心细选澳中两地最能为您带来奢华体验的酒店。
INTO THE WILD 座落于海南省东北部风光旖旎的铜 鼓岭国际生态旅游区内，文昌鲁能 希尔顿酒店拥有优越的地理位置， 从酒店便可领略岸边种满椰子树的 壮丽景观。酒店设有游泳池、健身 房、水疗中心等现代化设施，还有 四家不同风味的餐厅供选择，不管 您是想品尝当地美食还是小斟一 杯，这里都能满足您的欲望。文昌 魯能希尔顿酒店的行政套房及别墅 让您享受至尊奢华的入住体验，被 分隔开来的别墅就像是酒店里的精 品酒店，拥有无敌海景、设有独立 淋浴间及私家泳池。每晚从132澳 元起。
WUTAI MOUNTAIN MARRIOTT RESORT 五台万豪酒店
Nestled in the Tongguling International Eco-Tourism Area, a beautiful landscape in the north-east of Hainan Province, Hilton Wenchang is set in a unique location that boasts views of the coconut-tree-lined coast. It has all your modern indulgences – pool, gym and spa – and then some. There are four dining options to suit your needs. Whether you’re looking to taste some local cuisine or unwind with a sweet cocktail, you’ll find it here. To get a real taste of the luxury Hilton Wenchang has to offer, opt for their suites. Sectioned off, like a boutique hotel within a hotel, you’ll have sweeping ocean views and your own private plunge pool. From $132 per night. hilton.com
拥有超过2,000平方米的宴会及会议场地的五 台万豪酒店将于2016年5月开业，酒店设有 248间客房与套房，每个房间均可欣赏到壮 美的景色。 Opening May 2016, this spacious 248-room offering boasts breathtaking views and over 2,000sqm of state-of-the-art banquet and conference venues. marriott.com.au
REGENT PLACE XI’AN 西安丽晶酒店 座落于文化气息浓郁的西安，西安丽晶酒店 的156间客房与套房以兵马俑陶瓷和帝国时 期中国头饰的金属制品为装饰，充分体现出 西安深厚的历史背景。酒店将于2016年年底 开业。 Taking inspiration from its location, all 156 guestrooms and suites will reflect Xi’an’s rich history with contemporary interiors featuring ceramic pieces of the Terracotta Warriors. Opening late 2016. regenthotels.com
URBN HOTEL KUNMING 昆明URBN酒店 雅悦酒店将于明年2016年进驻昆明，六层高 的酒店位于彩云里的项目内。项目除了酒店 外还包括艺术家工作室、艺术中心、办公 室、创意空间、咖啡厅、酒吧及餐厅等。 Slated to open in 2016, the six-story locale will be part of WINART, a mixed-use complex that includes galleries, offices, nightlife and restaurants. urbnhotels.com 96 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CO. LTD.
中国东方航空股份有限公司
Top: QAGOMA building Bottom: DUAN JIANYU China b.1970 Sharp, Sharp, Smart No.4 (from ‘Sharp, Sharp, Smart’ series) 2014 Oil on canvas 140 x 180cm Image courtesy: The artist and Vitamin Creative Space, Guangzhou Proposed for the Queensland Art Gallery Collection
昆士兰州：阳光与艺术的美丽邂逅
BEAUTIFUL ART MEETS QUEENSLAND SUNSHINE Popular Australian city Brisbane is hosting the biggest celebration of Asia Pacific art in the world at the Queensland Art Gallery and Gallery of Modern Art (QAGOMA) until April 2016. Following the recent completion of a $45 million redevelopment at Brisbane Airport’s International Terminal, travel to the sunny East coast city will be even easier for Chinese visitors. Chinese tourism to Brisbane soared in the last year, with the number of visitors up 23%. To meet demand China Eastern Airlines will operate a season of Shanghai to Brisbane direct flights over January and February 2016, before starting permanent direct flights from November 2016. The 8th Asia Pacific Triennial of Contemporary Art (APT8) is one of the most
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important events on the international arts calendar and attracts visitors from all over the world. The last exhibition attracted more than half a million visitors. APT8 is a showcase of the work of more than 80 artists from 32 countries, including China, Mongolia, Nepal, Iraq, Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic. This year will feature latest works from Chinese painters Liu Ding and Duan Jianyu and videomaker Zhou Tao who represent a new generation of artists from China coming to prominence now on an international stage. This is the first time their work will be on public display in Brisbane. As part of the exhibition there’s an interactive program of activities for children which has now become a popular hallmark of QAGOMA’s major exhibitions. Brisbane Airport, too, has created family-friendly chill out zones in its new International Terminal, including a large green space with interactive kids play centre. Chinese-speaking Ambassadors and retail staff are also ready to welcome and guide visitors, with food outlets providing Chinese translations of menus. In December Brisbane will be the first Australian airport to launch a new digital platform that displays menus in four languages, including Chinese. 商道
澳大利亚热门城市布里斯班正举行全球最大 的亚太艺术庆祝盛会，地址位于昆士兰艺术馆 和现代艺术馆（QAGOMA），活动将持续到 2016年4月。 布里斯班机场已耗资4500万澳元完成其国际 航班候机楼的升级改造，中国游客前往阳光灿 烂的东海岸将更加便捷。 去年，中国赴布里斯班旅游开始高涨，游客 人数增加23%。为满足日益庞大的乘客需求， 中国东方航空将在2016年1月-2月开通上海至 布里斯班季节性直飞航线，之后将于2016年 11月开通固定直飞航班。 第八届亚太当代艺术三年展（APT8）是国际 艺术届最为重大的盛事之一，吸引来自全世界 的嘉宾。上届展会来宾数目超过50万。 第八届亚太艺术三年展包括来自中国、蒙 古、尼泊尔、伊拉克、格鲁吉亚和吉尔吉斯共 和国等32个国家80多位艺术家的作品。今年的 展会还将特别展出中国画家刘鼎和段建宇以及 视频制作人周滔的最新作品，代表中国新一代 艺术家已走上国际艺术舞台焕发耀眼光芒。这 也是他们的作品第一次在布里斯班亮相。 孩子们的互动节目是该展会内容之一，现已 成为昆士兰艺术馆和现代艺术馆重大展会的招 牌特色。 布里斯班机场也在新建的国际航班候机楼为 乘客提供了休闲小憩之地，包括配备儿童互动 娱乐中心的大型绿地。还安排了会说中文的“ 大使”和营业人员，随时为游客提供服务满足 所需；餐饮店也备有中文菜单方便顾客。12月 份，布里斯班机场将首开先河启用新型数字平 台，以四国语言展示菜单，包括中文。
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