Higher View Business - Issue 7

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I S S UE SEVEN. AU G U ST 20 16

HIGHER VIEW 商道

#07

TAPPING INTO TOURISM

Exploring the journey beyond the resources boom

旅游业的潜力 探索资源热潮以外的天地

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GP 芝柏表并不神秘， 只是拥有超过两个世纪的手工艺历史 以及对完美的永恒承诺。

GP 3300 机芯 全历显示

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Ground Floor, Crown River Walk Southbank VIC 3006 Phone: +61 3 9690 2566

WELCOME

欢迎

LUXURY IN THE AIR MATCHED ONLY ON THE GROUND WITH OUR FREE LIMOUSINE SERVICE FOR CORPORATE CLIENTS* * When travelling Business or First Class

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欢迎辞——中国东方航空公司

欢迎辞——澳大利亚中国总商会

中国东方航空一直以来都致力于搭建连接中澳两国的桥梁。 今年我们计划推出更多从中国二级城市直飞澳大利亚的航班。 敬请关注我们稍后发布的官方公告。作为本期《商道》杂志 的主题，旅游对于其它行业部门的发展起到了重要的推动作 用，包括教育、投资和贸易。在澳大利亚度过的美好经历往 往是游客与澳大利亚进行更深入、更长久接触的开始。 谈到国际往来，本期杂志亦提到了跨文化意识、知识和技 能对于把握澳大利亚和亚洲地区所涌现出来的种种机遇的重 要意义。Asialink Business首席执行官木孔德·那瑞亚那莫提 向读者介绍了如何与不同的文化和谐共处并在企业内部建立 长久关系的一些技巧。 还有一则与我们相关的消息就是中国东方航空今年刚刚为 头等舱乘客推出了21种精选葡萄酒，其中包括多种澳大利亚 品牌的葡萄酒。这21种葡萄酒均是为经过头等航乘客的投票 以及知名品酒师的品鉴、从316种全球知名葡萄酒当中精挑细 选而得。 让我们为之举杯欢呼吧！

* When travelling Business or First Class

澳大利亚与亚洲地区的关系日益密切并从中受益，尤其是在旅游业 方面。中澳两国之间旅游业的发展更是得到了促进并蕴藏了更多商机。 艾意凯咨询公司近期发布的一项报告中指出旅游业的发展逐渐成为两 国开展更深层次合作的途径。 旅游业受益的同时也给澳大利亚产品和服务带来了更多发展和商业 投资的机遇，所以对相关领域的投资，使澳大利亚更具吸引力，是带 动来自中国的旅游业增长的重要保证。 许多国家也意识到了这个机遇，澳大利亚也积极把握合作机会。 《中澳自由贸易协定》标志着两国关系上的一次重大飞跃，吸引了众多 来自中国的对外投资并备受关注。在过去的四年中，中国游客和市场 价值数是增长最快的，可以预计在两年或三年内，中国将成为澳大利 亚最大的市场在旅游和消费的数量。 而且，正如在本期《商道》杂志所指出的，外国投资者自身也将更 多地融入澳洲当地社区并带来更多双方受益的投资方案。 我们将继续努力推动两国在下一个财政年度有加紧密的商贸联系与 合作。

Welcome from the CCCA Welcome from China Eastern Airlines

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Building bridges between Australia and China has long been a major part of what we do at China Eastern. This year we are planning to initiate more direct flights from those second-tier cities of China to Australia; please pay attention to our official announcement later. As this issue of Higher View Business shows, tourism has significant flow-on benefits to other business sectors, be it education, investment or trade. Very often a positive experience while visiting Australia is the beginning of deeper, longer-term engagement.

Speaking of international engagement, this issue also looks at how cross-cultural awareness, knowledge and skills have never been more important to tapping into the increasing opportunities in Australia and across the Asian region.

Asialink Business CEO Mukund Narayanamurti gives some tips on how to better work with diverse cultures and form lasting relationships in your business.

And some news from us: China Eastern has just released 21 kinds of selected wines for premium class passengers this year, including several Australian brand names. Polls among our Platinum passengers – and the opinions of famous wine tasters – helped us make the cut from 316 world-famous wines.

That’s something to raise a glass to!

6 | HI GHER VIEW BUSINES S

商道

Australia is benefiting enormously from its growing ties with the Asia region. Tourism remains an integral component of that story. Tourism between Australia and China continues to grow strongly and has never been more lucrative. A recent report by L.E.K. Consulting illustrates how Chinese tourism is an important pathway for deeper cultural and economic engagement.

Nourishing the tourism industry increases the exposure of Australian products and services in Asia, thereby encouraging future business investment. Investment enables Australia to remain an attractive destination and provides impetus for continued to growth in its share of Chinese tourism.

Other countries are recognising this opportunity and Australia’s efforts need to respond accordingly. The Australia-China Free Trade Agreement is a major leap forward in the relations between our two countries, but foreign investment from China remains in the spotlight.

Over the past four years, the number of Chinese tourists and its market value has been the fastest-growing. It can beexpected that China will become Australia’s largest market in the number of tourists and spending in the next two or three years.

But as this issue of Higher View Business explains, it is also incumbent on foreign investors themselves to engage with the Australian business community and explain the benefits of their proposals.

We’ll be doing our best to foster greater business links in the financial year ahead!

CONTRIBUTORS

内容概要

CONTENTS 内容概要 IN THIS ISSUE 28

COVER STORY 封面故事

BRAND AUSTRALIA 品牌澳洲

Chinese tourism represents an area of particular potential for Australia because of its synergies with other important sectors such as education, real estate, infrastructure and consumer goods, to name a few. This could just be the tip of the iceberg, according to L.E.K. Consulting’s recent survey.

A large proportion of survey participants said they would pursue deeper engagement with Australia after visiting, the survey found. This points to the huge opportunities on offer as the economic relationship with China changes after the resources boom.

Australian business and government and an exceedingly broad range of organisations and institutions will be called upon to study and fully seize the deeper economic potential of Chinese tourism in this country. 得益于与其它一系列重要产业（比如教育、房地产、基 础设施和生活消费品等等）之间形成的协同效应，中国旅 游业已成为澳大利亚拥有重大发展潜力的一个领域。根据 艾意凯咨询公司近期开展的一项调查，我们目前所知的仅 仅是“冰山一角”。 调查发现：绝大部分调查对象均表示他们在结束旅游之 后会与澳大利亚展开更为深入的接触。在中澳两国经济关 系随着资源投资热的退潮而行将生变之际，这个结果意味 着巨大的商机。 我们强烈呼吁澳大利亚企业、政府以及广大组织和机构 开展相关研究，以全面了解中国旅游业将为澳大利亚带来 的更深经济潜力。

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 7

CONTENTS

内容概要

16 64 64 THE HOUSE THAT JACK MA BUILT 《阿里巴巴：马云的商业帝国》 In this excerpt from his new book, Duncan Clark, former Morgan Stanley investment banker and head of investment advisory firm BDA China, gives an insider’s account of how a teacher built one of the world’s most valuable companies – rivalling Walmart and Amazon – and forever reshaped the global economy.

在其新书的这份摘要之中，前 摩根士丹利投资银行家邓肯· 克拉克以及北京博达克咨询有 限公司董事长从内部人士的角 度介绍了老师出身的马云如何 打造出阿里巴巴这个可以匹敌 沃尔玛和亚马逊的全球最具价 值企业之一，以及如何永久地 改变了全球的经济格局。

REGULARS 固定栏目

OPINION 洞见

FEATURES 专题报道

10 CONTRIBUTORS 投稿人

42 GAME OF CARDS 纸牌游戏

54 CHINA’S NEW ECOMMERCE POLICY

13 NEWS 新闻 26 GLOBAL SNAPSHOT 全球快递

87 HIGHER LIFE 气派生活

96

16 CHINA’S HUGE PUNT ON FOOTBALL 中国足球成功路 Outspending England’s Premier League in the usually inflated January transfer window is no easy feat, yet this is only one plank of a huge investment in football that aims to drive China into the heart of the international game. 在异常火热的一月份转会窗口期间一举击败向来大手笔的英超绝非易事一 件，但这些不菲的足球投资仅仅是中国为跻身国际赛事而迈出的步伐之一。

With Chinese investment in Australia continuing to grab media headlines, Alistair Nicholas from Powell Tate provides advice to investors on how they can engage with Australian stakeholders and level the playing field. 鉴于中国在澳投资项目持续见诸报端头 条，尼古拉斯·阿利斯泰尔在此特向投 资者就如何与澳洲利益相关方接洽以及 寻求公平竞争等事宜提供重要建议。

48 WHAT DOES AUSTRALIA REALLY WANT? 外国投资：澳大 利亚真正需要什么？ Investors, including foreign investors, seek certainty. So the mixed messages coming from Canberra regarding Australia’s attitude to foreign investment must be a source of some angst. 包括外国投资者在内的所有投资者都需要 确定性。因此，堪培拉所发出有关于澳大 利亚对外国投资所持态度的不同信号引发 了种种顾虑。

中国跨境电子商务新政 The exponential growth in online spending on foreign goods in China has been a windfall for foreign and Australian exporters. But is this set to change with the introduction of China’s new eCommerce policy?

Be prepared but not alarmed. 在中国，外国商品线上消费的指数增长 为外国和澳大利亚出口商带来了滚滚利 润。但是，随着中国推出了一项新的电 子商务政策，这种局面是否还能继续保 持下去？不必惊慌，但应做好准备！

58 NEW MARKETS, NEW SKILLS

新市场呼唤新技能 With trade barriers falling in an increasingly global economic environment, international markets have never been more connected.

To take advantage of cross-border opportunities, cross-cultural awareness, knowledge and skills have never been more important to your success.

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随着贸易壁垒在一个日益全球化的经济 环境下分崩离析，国际市场之间的互联 互通亦达到了前所未有的高度。为了充 分把握各种跨境商机，企业必须全面认 识到跨文化意识、知识和技能对于成功 的重要性。

72 AN UNLIKELY OPPORTUNITY 山重水复疑无路 Chinese president Xi Jinping’s campaign against corruption has forced sellers of luxury items to change their target markets and come up with new, innovative ways to sell their products. 中国国家主席习近平的反腐败运动， 迫使奢侈品销售商改变他们的目标市 场，并拿出新的，创新的方法来推销 自己的产品。

82 A SHOT IN THE ARM 中澳健康合作新天地 As China’s healthcare and biopharma businesses look to expand overseas, Australia is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for foreign investment in these sectors. 中国健康及生物医药企业正日益寻求国 际发展机会，而澳大利亚作为该领域投 资目的地的吸引力与日俱增。艾意凯咨 询公司指出，中澳自贸协定的签署，减 少了不少先前的贸易限制，澳大利亚健 康医疗市场在吸引中国投资方面正蓄势 待发，良机涌现。

CONTRIBUTORS

第七期 Issue 07

投稿人

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4.

致力推动中澳友好关 系的重要人物，也跟 我们一起创建这一期 的《商道》。 1. SIMON BARRETT

Meet the minds helping to shape China-Australia relations – and who also helped shape this issue of Higher View Business

If you’d like to contribute an article to Higher View Business, please get in touch with us via: jim@citrusmedia.com.au

in Shanghai. Helen has more than 20 years of extensive case work and industry experience covering the full biopharmaceutical and medical devices value chain.

西蒙·巴雷特

Simon is a Partner and Chairman of L.E.K. Australia. He has more than 24 years of experience in strategy consulting in Australia/New Zealand, Asia and Europe.

jim@citrusmedia.com.au

与我们联系。

陈玮女士现任艾意凯咨询公司董事总

他一直定期前往亚洲，能说普通话，而

经理，兼任L.E.K.咨询中国去业务负责人

且几乎任何东西都吃。他曾在包括《澳洲

之一。陈玮女士拥有超过20年的管理咨

金融时报》（Australian Financial

询经验，尤其在生物医药领域及医疗技

Review）在内的知名出版机构工作。

新西兰、亚洲和欧洲等地进行战略咨询

术行业拥有丰富的经验。

西蒙是艾意凯澳大利亚咨询公司合伙

6. NEALE JONES

的丰富经验。

4. ASHLEIGH HOLCZ

尼尔·琼斯

2. DUNCAN CLARK

阿什利·霍斯

邓肯·克拉克

Ashleigh is a projects lawyer in the Western Australian mining industry and a publications contributor for the Australia-China Youth Association.

In 2012, Ashleigh was awarded a Chinese Government Scholarship to attend the Beijing Language and Culture University, where she subsequently completed an 18-month Chinese language programme.

Neale Jones is a Partner in L.E.K. Consulting’s Sydney office. Neale has more than 14 years of extensive experience working with clients in the biopharmaceuticals, life sciences and healthcare services sectors in both the European and Asia Pacific markets.

Duncan has been based in Beijing since 1994, when he founded the leading investment advisory firm BDA China after four years as a technology investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong. An expert on China’s internet sector, Clark has been invited to Stanford University as a Visiting Scholar, where he co-founded the “China 2.0” research programme.

阿什利是活跃于西澳大利亚采矿业项 目的律师，曾为澳中国青年协会的出版

邓肯于1994年在北京创建了业内领先

尼尔·琼斯是L.E.K.合作伙伴咨询公司 的悉尼办事处。尼尔拥有超过14年在这 两个欧洲和亚太地区市场，在生物制药 客户，生命科学和医疗保健服务行业工 作的丰富经验。

物的撰稿人。在2012年，阿什利获得中

7. JAMES LAURENCESON

的咨询公司——博达克咨询有限公司。

国政府奖学金在北京语言大学就读，顺

邓肯先后于伦敦和香港摩根斯坦利从事了

利完成了18个月中文学习。

詹姆斯·罗文森

5. BEN HURLEY 白杰明 Ben Hurley is a journalist specialising in international business, emerging companies, technology and travel.

He has been regularly travelling to Asia for almost 15 years, speaks Mandarin and says that he eats

James Laurenceson is currently Deputy Director and Professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology, Sydney (UTS). His research focuses exclusively on the Chinese economy and has been published in a range of acclaimed, peer-reviewed journals.

4年的投资银家。邓肯受斯坦福大学邀请 2.0”研究计划。

3. HELEN CHEN 陈玮 Helen Chen is a Director and Partner at L.E.K. Consulting and serves as the Co-Head of L.E.K.’s China practice

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10 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

白杰明是一名专长报道国际业务、 新兴企业、科技及旅游的记者。近15年

人兼总裁。他拥有超过24年在澳大利亚、

担任访问学者，同时协助建立了“中国

《商道》欢迎投稿， 感兴趣者请发邮件至

almost anything. He has worked for leading publications including the Australian Financial Review.

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10.

商道

12.

CONTRIBUTORS

投稿人

6.

5.

7.

8.

Higher View Business 商道 Issue 07 Strategic Advisor 战略顾问

Jingmin Qian

Editor 编辑 Ben Hurley

Staff Writers 特约撰稿人

Crystal Wong, Constantina Pilatos

The aim of the ACRI at UTS is to illuminate the bilateral relationship across political, economic, cultural and other dimensions.

the critical skills, knowledge and networks needed to better understand and achieve business results in Asia.

family farming business. He has 45 years experience as a beef and wool producer. 伯纳德是家族农业生意Woolpack

詹姆斯·罗文森当前是悉尼科技大学

木孔德是Asialink Business的总

澳中关系研究院的副院长和教授。他专

裁，澳大利亚是一个具亚洲能力的国

注于研究中国经济，并曾在一系列知名

家。木孔德带领Asialink Business实

同行评审期刊上发表过大量文章。澳中

践其公司使命 －通过培训、以业务为

12. RUSSELL WIESE

关系研究院的目标是阐释两国在政治、

中心的研究和活动来建立具亚洲能力

罗素·维泽

经济、文化和其它方面的双边关系。

的澳大利亚团队。 Asialink Business

Russell Wiese is a partner and special counsel from national law firm Hunt & Hunt. Russell is a customs and global trade specialist with a strong focus on helping clients proactively manage customs risks opportunities.

为各行各业的机构提供

重要的技能、

8. ALISTAIR NICHOLAS

知识和网络，帮助他们更好地了解及

尼古拉斯 · 阿利斯泰尔

实现在亚洲的业务成效。

Alistair is Executive Vice President – Director, Special Projects at Powell Tate Australia. He was previously based in Beijing for 13 years and is a former Australian Trade Commissioner and former advisor to several Federal Coalition Ministers. 尼古拉斯是澳大利亚Powell Tate 公司的执行副总裁－特别项目董事。 他曾在北京居住长达13年之久，是前 澳大利亚贸易专员以及曾担任几位联 邦部长的顾问。

9. MUKUND NARAYANAMURTI 木孔德 · 那瑞亚那莫提

Mukund is the CEO of Asialink Business, Australia’s national centre for Asia capability. Mukund leads Asialink Business in its mission to create an Asia-capable Australian workforce by delivering training, business-focused research and events. Asialink Business supports organisations in all sectors to develop

10. BENJAMIN SUN 本杰明·孙

Benjamin Sun is a digital marketer and researcher with extensive knowledge in Chinese digital marketing. Benjamin’s main research interest is on Chinese digital landscape and online consumer behaviour. He helps many clients conduct and analyse market research to give them the strategic intelligence they need to make smarter decisions.

Creek的主管。他拥有45年牛肉和羊毛生 产的丰富经验。

罗素·维泽是hunt&hunt律师事务所 的合伙人。罗素是海关和全球贸易的专

Millie Jia, Stephanie Goh

Illustrations 插图

Gregory Baldwin @ The Illustration Room

Sub Editor 副编辑 Greg Barton

Advertising 广告

Max La-Brooy +61 2 8188 3664 max@citrusmedia.com.au Crystal Wong +61 2 8188 3662 crystal@citrusmedia.com.au

Production Manager 生产经理 Ian Scott

Financial Controller 财务总监 Stuart Harle

Publisher 出版者

Jim Flynn +61 2 8188 3671 jim@citrusmedia.com.au

家就一系列涉及全球贸易环境中的合格 性商业问题提供咨询意见。

13. JUSTIN WANG 王景烨

本杰明是电子市场营销专家及研究 员，对中国电子市场推广的知识渊博。 本杰明重点研究中国电子市场和在线消 费者的行为。他协助许多客户进行市场 研究，为他们提供所需的战略情报，让

Justin Wang is a Partner in L.E.K.’s Shanghai office. Justin has more than 12 years of experience in strategic consulting, and his expertise spans across a number of industry sectors including biopharmaceuticals and life sciences, medical technology and industrial products.

他们作出更明智的商业决定。

王景烨先生是L.E.K.咨询驻上海分公司 董事总经理。王先生拥有十余年的管理

11. BERNARD WRIGHT

Design 设计

咨询的从业经验，参与并领导了众多战

伯纳德·怀特

略咨询项目，行业覆盖生物医药与生命

Bernard heads the Woolpack Creek

科学、医疗器械、工业制造等领域。

13.

商道

Translation by Jack Chen (陈晓杰).

Printed by Megacolour.

Distributed by Network Services Company.

Higher View Business is produced for business class passengers on China Eastern Airlines flights between Australia and China.

It can also be found in select newsagents, premium hotels and is distributed directly to key people involved in contributing to the China-Australia relationship.

Citrus Media wishes to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the Australia China Business Council and its staff and members in making this issue of Higher View Business.

We invite contributions from experts in their respective fields – please get in touch with the Editor-in-Chief to discuss. © 2016 Citrus Media. All rights reserved. No article or images may be reproduced wholly or in part without prior written permission from the publisher. While every care was taken during the preparation of this magazine, Citrus Media cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information or any consequence arising from it.

All views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views of the writer/photographer/illustrator and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of China Eastern Airlines or CCCA. Higher View Business is an independent publication and is in no way endorsed by China Eastern Airlines.

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 11

视点

VIEWPOINT 视点

VIEWPOINT

NEWS, INSIGHTS, GLOBAL THINKING

INSIGHT 洞察

WILL CLIMATE AND EMISSIONS TARGETS CURB CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION? 气候与排放的目标能否遏止中国的煤炭消耗？ Chris Greig, Professor & UQ Energy Initiative Director, The University of Queensland 作者：克里斯·基利，昆士兰大学教授及能源倡议主任

Something remarkable happened in China in 2014. China’s coal consumption – the highest in the world – appeared to stabilise for the first time in 16 years. Many commentators proclaimed a new era for China’s energy mix and perhaps even the beginning of the demise of coal in China.

As China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, this was heralded as good news for the climate.

But the future is rather more uncertain. China is a major regional power with a major energy economy. Its primary energy consumption has grown by more than 500% over the past 30 years. China overtook the United States as the world’s largest primary energy consumer in 2010.

Not surprisingly, the world has been watching the role of coal in China’s energy development with considerable interest over the past few decades.

TWIN THREATS: POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

In 2010, China released its 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP), the country’s defining economic plan for 2011-15. It fundamentally changed China’s approach to energy and climate policies.

Instead of broad goals and statements, the plan shifted to specific policy instruments aimed at reducing emissions. It was driven in no small part by domestic environmental concerns centred on smog, air and water pollution.

The 12th FYP established binding targets to reduce energy intensity by 16%, reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 17%, and increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in the primary energy mix to 11.4% – all by 2015.

These targets were reinforced by the historic US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change in 2014.

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014年中国有件不同凡响的事：一直高居全 球榜首的中国煤炭消耗量16年来首次趋稳。 许多评论人员声称中国迎来了能源结构的新纪 元，这或许还是中国煤炭时代的终结。 作为全球最大的温室气体排放国，中国的这 一消息对气候界而言实乃佳音。 但是，未来的不确定因素还有很多。中国是 一个以能源经济为主体的地区强国。过去 30年里，中国的基础能源消费量增幅超过 500%。2010年，中国正式超越美国成为全球最 大的基础能源消费国。 毫不意外，鉴于能源开发中煤炭的作用以及 过去几十年里所产生的可观效益，对于中国的 煤炭业路在何方，全球都在拭目以待， 双重威胁：污染和气候变化 2010年，中国公布第十二个五年规划纲要 （“五年计划”），即中国从2011年到2015年 发展国民经济的计划。这一正式规划从根本上 转变了中国能源和气候政策的办法。 “十二五”规划中不再是泛泛而谈的目标和 宣言，而是关注面向减少污染排放的具体政策 手段。这一规划的出台很大程度上是受到烟 尘、空气和水污染等国内环境问题的驱动。 “十二五”规划制订了具有约束力的目标， 要求截止到2015年——能源强度减少16%，二 氧化碳（CO2）排放强度（每单位GDP的排放

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Through the announcement, and its pledge ahead of the Paris climate summit in December 2015, China promised to peak in CO₂ emissions around 2030 (and try to peak earlier), cut emissions intensity by 60-65% of the 2005 level, and source around 20% of its primary energy consumption from non-fossil fuels by 2030. Provided that economic growth is limited to 5.5% (China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015), China’s emissions in 2030 would return to close to 2005 levels.

After the Paris Agreement, China announced its 13th Five-Year Plan, covering 2016-20. With a focus on capping energy consumption to within five billion tonnes of coal equivalent (capping overall energy use, not only coal use) by 2020 and addressing air pollution, energy intensity will be reduced by 15%, CO₂ emissions intensity will fall by 18%, and the proportion of non-fossil fuels will increase to 15%.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR COAL?

BP’s 2016 Energy Outlook shows China’s fuel mix is changing. The share of coal in primary energy is projected to fall from 66% in 2014 to 47% by 2035.

Demand for coal is likely to peak in 2027 and then fall by 0.3% each year over the next seven years.

To compensate for China’s reduced reliance on coal, the share of natural gas is expected to more than double, with the share of non-fossil fuels also increasing rapidly to bridge the gap.

One interesting question is what does this mean for coal-fired power infrastructure in China?

Two main drivers influence the building of new power plants.

The first is growth in future electricity demand. This is influenced by population growth and the intensification of energy use in developing economies, such as China.

The second is “business-as-usual retirement” of infrastructure. This is driven largely by regulatory compliance and competitiveness in the electricity market, as well as a preference to shift to low-carbon sources to assist in meeting emissions reduction targets.

Most power plants approaching retirement age are located mainly in the

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量）减少17%，一次能源结构中非矿物燃料比 重增加至11.4%。 2014年中美两国元首发表了历史性的《中美 气候变化联合声明》，进一步加强了这些 目标。 通过该项“声明”及其在2015年12月巴黎气 候峰会前夕的保证，中国承诺在2030年左右 （尽可能提前）二氧化碳排放达到峰值，排放 强度在2005年基础上减少60-65%，并计划到 2030年非矿物燃料占基础能源消费的比重提高 到20%左右。如果中国的经济增长控制在5.5% 以内（2015年中国经济增长6.9%），则2030年 排放量可能回归到接近2005年的水平。 《巴黎协定》之后，中国公布其2016-2020 年的第十三个五年规划纲要。纲要提出到2020 年能源消耗控制在50亿吨煤当量以内（控制总 能耗，而不仅仅是煤耗），并且致力于解决空 气污染问题，能源强度降低15%，二氧化碳排 放强度下降18%，非矿物燃料比重增加至15%。 此举对煤炭业的影响 BP石油公司2016年的《能源展望》显示中国 的燃料结构正在发生改变。2035年，一次能源 中煤的比重预计将从2014年的66%下降到的 47%。煤需求量预计在2027年达到峰值，之后 七年每年下降0.3%。 中国对煤炭的依赖减少，但是，天然气所占 的比重有望翻番，非矿物燃料的比重也迅速增 加，以弥补其间差距。 一个有趣的问题是：这对中国的燃煤电力基 础设施有何影响？ 两个主要驱动因素对新发电厂的建设产生 影响。 其一是未来电力需求的增加，原因在于中国 等发展中经济体人口增长和能源使用加强。 其二是基础设施的“正常退役”，主要在于 法律法规遵从和电力市场竞争的影响，以及转 向低碳资源以助于达到减排目标的驱动。 下表可见，临近退役年限的发电厂大多位于 美国和欧洲。而中国，显然属于一支年轻的队 伍，中位数年龄10年。

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USA and Europe. China, on the other hand, has a remarkably young fleet with a median age of ten years.

And this is where the dilemma emerges. Very few plants are approaching the age of natural retirement in China, even by 2030 when emissions are scheduled to peak.

Given the age of coal-fired infrastructure in China, it doesn’t appear as though business-as-usual retirements will drive a dramatic reduction in China’s coal use.

INCREASING CLIMATE ACTION

这就是问题所在。中国极少有电厂达到自然 退役年限——即便到2030年预计排放达峰 之时。 考虑到中国燃煤基础设施的使用年限，中国 的煤炭使用似乎难以出现由“正常退役”产生 的大幅减少。

Of course the pledges announced prior to Paris are only part of the story.

The Paris Agreement aims to hold warming to well below 2℃ and attempt to limit warming to 1.5℃.

Estimates suggest the Paris pledges would result in warming of 2.7-3.6℃.

Accordingly, much greater emissions-reduction efforts are likely to be required to hold global average temperature increase to less than 2℃.

A recent study looked at the implications for global coal-fired power investments (operating, committed and planned) for a 2℃ average temperature rise scenario (in line with the International Energy Agency’s global mitigation scenario).

The investments in recent and new coal-fired power plant capacity are dominated by expansion in Asia, in particular China and India. A global reduction in coal-fired power infrastructure to shift from the business-asusual scenario to the 2℃ mitigation scenario unsurprisingly would require China to make a significant contribution to this reduction.

Accordingly, China would need not only to reverse its growth trend in installed capacity by 2030, but also decommission some 400 gigawatts of coal-fired infrastructure, approximately equivalent to a third of its capacity, before the end of its useful life.

The implication is that non-OECD countries including China could be asked to carry more of the economic burden to transform the global energy system because these countries will need to prematurely retire costeffective coal power assets. Questions about whether this is realistic, and around compensation for the cost of such early retirements, may influence the prospects of addressing the risk of climate change.

A second driver of China’s coal consumption trend is the push to reduce air pollution, in particular damaging pollution known as PM2.5. While BP’s Energy Outlook for 2016 suggests that this will drive the switch from coal to natural gas, in the absence of serious constraints on carbon emissions, energy security drivers may favour the use of coal-derived synthetic natural gas (syngas or SNG).

While this reduces air pollution, the production process is very carbonintensive. China has made ambitious plans to develop this technology.

With the release of the 13th FYP earlier this year, the energy sector was expecting a limit on total coal consumption and cuts to coal production in order to peak emissions by 2030.

Yet while some production cuts have been announced, precisely how this will play out for coal-fired power infrastructure and actual coal consumption remains to be seen.

Caroline Stott, UQ Energy Initiative Research Officer, contributed to this article.

This article first appeared on The Conversation – www.theconversation.com

气候领域的更多实际行动 当然，巴黎气候峰会前夕的承诺仅仅只是冰 山一角。《巴黎协定》的目的在于将全球升温 控制在“远低于”2℃以下并“尽量控制 在”1.5℃以下。 有评估显示巴黎峰会前夕的承诺将实现2.73.6℃的升温控制。因此，这就可能需要付出更 多更大的努力实施减排，才能将全球平均升温 控制在低于2℃。 最近一项研究考察了全球平均升温2℃情景 （与国际能源署全球减缓情景一致）对全球燃 煤电力投资（运营、执行和计划）的影响。 对新建燃煤电厂容量的投资受到亚洲，尤其 是中国和印度发展势头的影响。全球燃煤电力 基础设施的缩减由“正常情景”转向2℃减缓情 景必然要求中国对此作出重大贡献。 因此，中国不仅需要在2030年之前遏制其装 机容量的增长趋势，还需要在使用期限结束之 前淘汰4000亿瓦的燃煤基础设施，大约相当于 该国总装机容量的三分之一。 其影响在于：非经合发展国家（包括中国） 因为需要提前淘汰一些具有成本效益的煤炭电 力资产，可能需要承担更多的经济负担以实现 全球能源体系的转变。这一提议是否实际可行 以及对于这种“提前退役”的成本补偿等问 题，都可能对解决气候变化风险的未来前景产 生影响。 中国煤炭消耗趋势的第二大驱动因素是减少 空气污染的诉求，尤其是众所周知的PM2.5这 一破坏性污染。BP公司2016年的《能源展望》 提出，此举将推动由煤向天然气的转变，在对 碳排放并无严重制约的情况下，能源安全的驱 动因素可能有利于源于煤炭的合成天然气（合 成天然气或代用天然气）的使用。 煤制合成天然气减少了大气污染，但其过程 属于碳密集型生产。中国已经制订了相应的宏 伟计划来发展这一技术。 随着今年初“十三五”规划的颁布，能源产 业有望限制煤炭消耗总量，减少煤产量，实现 2030年碳排放峰值。 虽然减产计划已经宣布，但具体而言，其对 燃煤电力基础设施和实际煤炭消耗的确切成效 还有待观察。 昆士兰大学能源倡议研究专员CarolineStott 惠助首次发表于TheConversation（www. theconversation.com）

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Photo by ChinaFotoPress / Getty Images

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FEATURE 专栏

CHINA’S HUGE PUNT ON FOOTBALL NEEDS A HEART AS WELL AS DEEP POCKETS 中国足球成功路：雄心壮志外，还要大投入 David Cockayne, Senior Lecturer: University of Huddersfield Business School, University of Huddersfield 作者：大卫·科凯恩，哈德斯菲尔德大学商学院高级讲师

Jackson Martinez, Alex Teixeira, and Ramires – formerly among Europe’s top footballers – are now the centrepiece of the Chinese Super League’s recent £200m acquisition of footballing talent. Out-spending England’s Premier League in the usually inflated January transfer window is no easy feat, yet this is only one plank of a huge investment in football that aims to drive China into the heart of the international game.

The latest Chinese effort to upset the apple cart does show progress.

Historic attempts to uproot foreign stars and plant a competitive footballing environment in China have largely failed because of a barren grassroots environment. Rowan Simons' book Bamboo Goalposts provides a humorous account of the difficulties in establishing the foundations of football in a country lacking inner-city space and where, until recently, strict rules applied to group activities of any kind.

This time there is a difference, however – most notably the efforts of

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克逊·马丁内斯、阿莱士·特谢拉以及 拉米雷斯——这三位曾经的欧洲顶级球 员如今均已成为中国足球超级联赛近年来耗费 2亿欧元重金招揽而来的王牌。在异常火热的 一月份转会窗口期间一举击败向来大手笔的英 超绝非易事一件，但这些不菲的足球投资仅仅 是中国为跻身国际赛事而迈出的步伐之一。 中国最新的“打劫”之举并未取得丝毫成 果。过去中国一直在挖外国球星并尝试打造一 个极具竞争力的国内足球环境，但这些努力最 终都由于基础环境薄弱而败走麦城。罗文 （Rowan Simons）在其所著的《翠竹门柱》 一书中以诙谐的口吻介绍了缺乏城市空间的中 国在发展足球方面所面临的种种窘境，以及中 国在过去对于任何类型的群体性活动所实施的 种种严格限制。

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President Xi Jinping. In his vision, China will become a global force in everything from aviation and nanotechnology – to football. His ten-year plan runs until 2025 and is based around the creation of a Chinese sports economy worth US$850 billion. This is a startling target considering the entire global sports market is currently valued at just over US$145 billion.

To achieve this, Xi wants to build 20,000 football schools by 2017, and 30,000 more by 2025 in the hope of producing 100,000 potential players.

Some might consider these lofty and even unrealistic ambitions, but for those who have experience of doing business in China this statement of ambition is nothing unusual. It is reflective of China’s “factory approach” to socio-economic growth and development.

但是，尤其在习近平主席的努力之下，情况 已大有不同。习近平希望中国在各个领域均能 成为全球的中流砥柱——无论是航空、纳米技 术还是足球。他提出了一个关于到2025年体育 产业的产值应达到8500亿美元的十年计划。考 虑到当前全球体育市场的产值刚刚突破1450亿 美元，这个目标着实令人惊愕。 为了实现这项宏伟目标，习近平希望在2017 年前建设2万个足球场，并在2025年前再增加 3万个足球场，同时培养10万名球员。有些人 或许认为这些目标有点玄乎，甚至有些不切实 际，但对于那些曾在中国做过生意的人而言， 中国所宣布的这些雄心壮志实在是太过寻常 了。它反映了中国在社会经济增长和发展方面 所采取的一种“工厂模式”。

FROM AMBITION TO PRACTICE

While Shanghai gets ready to welcome Disney to the Middle Kingdom, Guangzhou has Evergrande Football School. Funded by real estate giants Evergrande, it cost US$185m and is the world’s largest school dedicated purely to football.

With around 3,000 registered students, the scale of the project has led to the tag “football factory”. As with all other industrial sectors in China, the blueprint comes from the top, and this also applies to sport education.

This is achieved through the creation of sport-specific vocational institutions, identifying athletes of the future and encouraging them to spend their primary and secondary education refining their raw talent into sporting success. This approach has yielded countless Olympic medals at youth and senior levels, but its success has mainly been for individual, rather than team sports.

从雄心到实践 上海已将迪斯尼请到了“中土”，而广州则 拥有恒大足球学校。这所由房地产巨鳄恒大投 资1.85亿美元兴办的学校是全球范围内专注于 足球教育的最大学校。 恒大足球学校拥有3000名注册学生；这样的 规模令其被贴上了“足球工厂”的标签。与中 国的所有其它产业部门一样，这个蓝图是由最 高领导人提出的，其亦同样适用于体育教育。 Photo by Getty Images

A HYBRID MODEL

This strategy of investment at both ends of the football pyramid is refreshing, and arguably gives China its best shot yet at developing a modern footballing environment. While big name stars attract the desired media interest, capital investments in some of the world’s biggest football clubs, such as the £265m investment in Manchester City, will reassure lurking sponsors and likely investors that China’s recent foray into the global football industry is no wayward long-shot.

This recent surge in elite level investment might be impressive, but couple it with the possibility of producing 100,000 home-grown players by 2025, and the legacy potential of up to 50,000 football schools, and China really could become the home of the world’s first major non-European football league. The question now is what else can it do to achieve this?

There is no doubt that in modern sport capital investment and thorough strategic planning is needed to develop and compete. The current model

by China has caught everyone’s attention, but is it sustainable in the long term? And are the capital investments by Chinese business owners just a way of forging a positive relationship with President Xi?

BEST SHOT

In Europe, we don’t have “football schools” as such, but we do have football on the brain. The media plays a significant role in this. Chinese football probably needs an equivalent to England’s Match of the Day highlights programme. Lots of football fans in the UK don’t necessarily enjoy watching full games, nor do they attend live games. Yet the humorous, in-depth and passionate analysis of the weekend’s action has become a hallmark of football in England. Chinese clubs need to go beyond attracting hard-core

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fans, and should focus more on the casual supporter. This is the group that will ultimately sustain a club’s legacy.

One approach could be to use education, arguably the one thing Chinese families will spend their money on. If enterprising Chinese clubs can partner with local organisations and education providers, then the development of a casual fan base will naturally occur alongside meaningful contributions to other areas of the Chinese economy. English language skills delivered through football would be a powerful benefit, too.

China has a chance to crack the global football industry. The strategy to date reflects the country’s broader approach to economic planning and development, and for the first time it is being driven by the man at the top.

That said, the longevity and potential of China’s football market will remain questionable in the absence of an intermediary, socially-focused agenda to help unite fans, athletes, investors – and the people of China.

This article first appeared on The Conversation - www.theconversation.com

这个蓝图将通过创办职业体育学校的方式来实 现，意在挖掘未来的体育之星并鼓励他们利用 小学和中学学段提高技能水平并迈向成功。中 国已利用这种方法捧回无数青年和成年级别的 奥运奖杯，但这种成功主要在个人层面，而非 团队。 混合模式 这种在足球金字塔两头进行投资的战略令人 耳目一新，并且可以说为中国打造一个现代化 的足球环境提供了最大的可能性。在通过一些 巨星吸引了媒体广泛关注的同时，对全球最大 几家足球俱乐部的注资——比如对曼彻斯特城 市队的2.65亿英镑的投资——无疑是在向潜在 赞助商和投资者证明中国近年来对全球足球产 业的“突袭”绝非一记任性的远射。 中国近年来对精英球员的频频投资可谓令人 印象深刻，但与此同时中国亦有可能在2025年 前培养出10万名本土球员，以及创办5万所足 球学校；中国极其有望成为全球第一个著名的 非欧洲足球联赛的举办地。眼下的问题是：中 国还可以为这一目标做些什么？ 毫无疑问，在现代体育资本投资当中，周全 的战略规划是不可或缺的。中国当前的模式已 经引发了广泛关注，但从长远来看这种模式是 否可以持续？中国企业家们所开展的资本投资 是否仅仅是为了与习近平主席搞好关系？ 最大机会 欧洲并没有任何类似的“足球学校”，但我 们心中自有足球；媒体在这当中扮演了一个重 要角色。中国足球可能需要一个类似于英国 《今日比赛》这样的集锦类节目。英国有许多 球迷并不享受观看比赛的过程，他们更愿意亲 身参与其中。不过，对周末比赛进行幽默、深 入和热烈的点评已成为英国足球的一个烙印。 除了吸引那些资深球迷之外，中国的俱乐部更 需要专注于那些业余球迷，因为后者将最终决 定一家俱乐部的兴衰。 其中一个方法是利用教育，这似乎是广大中 国家庭唯一愿意砸钱的地方。如果那些有魄力 的中国俱乐部可以与地方组织及教育机构开展 合作，则业余足球基地的诞生自然是水到渠 成，同时还能为中国的其它经济领域做出一定 的贡献。通过足球所带来的英语水平的提升亦 将是其莫大的好处之一。 中国有很大机会在全球足球产业当中有所建 树。到目前为止，中国的战略体现了中国在经 济规划和发展过程中所一贯采取的“广撒网” 方法，并且也是首次由最高领导人进行推动。 尽管如此，在缺乏一项面向社会的中期议程来 帮助联合球迷、球员、投资人以及中国人民的 情况下，中国足球市场的生命力和潜力仍然有 待考证。

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Quality Properties and Quality Living

CWG DEVELOPMENT PTY LTD

中锐地产澳大利亚有限公司为新加坡上 市企业——中锐地产国际股份有限公司 全资拥有，始终如一地提供超越客户期 望的高品质作品，极富特色的贴心设计， 简洁而又奢华，公司在澳大利亚开发了 多个魅力独具的标志性项目。

中锐持续投资澳洲一流的住宅、商业和 办公物业，并为客户提供从财富管理、 投资置业到留学移民的一站式专业服务。 CWG Development Pty Ltd is an Australian registered company, fully owned by Chiwayland International Limited (which is listed on the Singapore Exchange Market). The company is currently developing a property portfolio of mixed use projects in Australia. Through thoughtful design and innovative features, CWG produces distinctive luxury residential projects.

With its customers in mind, CWG recognises the importance of providing exceptional products and is committed to creating residences that foster indulgence in the simple luxuries of life.

CWG will keep investing in the first-class residential, retail and commercial properties in Australia, and providing customers professional package services including fund management, real estate investment, education and immigration services.

The Peak @ Parramatta, Sydney Lapointe @ Caddens, Sydney

Rydehill @ Ryde, Sydney

Uptown @ Roseville, Sydney

Marine’s Hill @ Epping, Sydney

Vivir @ Nundah, Brisbane

Illumina @ Toowong, Brisbane

需要更多资讯请致电 + 61 2 8076 5156 或发送邮件到 info@chiwaylandau.com 我们会说中英文。 More information please call + 61 2 8076 5156 or send an email to info@chiwaylandau.com We can speak English & Mandarin.

www.chiwayland.com WeChat ID: chiwayaus 扫一扫，关注中锐澳洲更多资讯

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FEATURE 专栏

CHAFTA IS GREAT NEWS FOR AUSTRALIAN FARMING FAMILIES LIKE MINE

《中澳自由贸易协定》 ——澳大利亚农户的重大利好 Bernard Wright 作者：伯纳德·怀特

As the head of a typical Australian farming family, it's wonderful to be able to say that I see 2016, the Year of the Monkey, as a year of excitement and great potential. We produce high-quality beef and fine Merino wool at Woolpack Creek, our 810-hectare property 140 km north of Canberra, Australia’s national capital. We are proud professional farmers and identify strongly with Australia’s hard-earned reputation as a producer of ‘clean and green’ food and fibre.

It was no surprise that the media gave great attention to the completion of the ChAFTA (China-Australia Free Trade Agreement) negotiations in 2015 because of its importance to the bilateral relationship and the substantial benefits it offers to producers and consumers in both countries. It was important that the bigger picture was explained, but ChAFTA’s value is more fully appreciated when we look at the micro level, the level of the individual producer and consumer.

We are optimists. We see the opportunities available to us and to thousands of other farming families as good news stories flowing from ChAFTA – stories that are especially important when attention is too often given to ‘gloom and doom’ news.

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为一个典型澳大利亚农户的一家之主，我 很高兴地宣布2016年将是令人振奋以及潜 力无限的一个猴年。我们在Woolpack Creek生 产顶级牛肉以及品质上乘的美利奴羊毛；这个占 地810公顷的广袤农场位于澳大利亚首都堪培拉 以北140公里的位置。作为自豪而专业的农户， 我们对澳大利亚作为“清洁、绿色”食品和纤维 生产大国这个来之不易的盛誉感同身受。 毫无意外，媒体对2015年《中澳自由贸易协 定》谈判的完结予以了极大的关注；这不仅仅是 基于该协定对于双边关系的重要性，同样还缘于 该协定将给两国生产者和消费者所带来的诸多裨 益。诠释宏观大局固然重要，但唯有深入到个体 生产者和消费者所处的微观层面，我们才能更全 面地领会《中澳自由贸易协定》的价值所在。 像我们这样的乐观主义者将《中澳自由贸易协 定》为我们自身以及其它数千农户所展现的种种 机遇视为重大利好——尤其当大家都过于关注那 些“悲观、黯淡”的报道之时。 牛肉出口前景 2014-2015财年期间，中国进口了128,700吨 的澳大利亚牛肉，占中国牛肉进口总量的40%， 而澳大利亚牛肉也以其上乘品质在中国饱获赞 誉。经济合作与发展组织将牛肉视为中国增长最

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BEEFY PROSPECTS

By 2014-15, China was importing 128,700 tonnes of Australian beef, comprising 40% of its beef imports – and Australian beef had an outstanding reputation for its quality. The OECD sees beef as China’s fastest-growing import sector. Against this backdrop, ChAFTA details are particularly encouraging – tariffs of 12-25% will be reduced progressively and eliminated by January 1, 2024. This is great news for Chinese consumers as well as for Australian producers.

Our family does not export its beef directly. Instead, like other producers, we sell our beef to a small number of licensed and carefully regulated exporters who service China and other international markets. We are enthusiastic about the prospect of supplying more beef to help meet China’s growing demand for red meat. We acknowledge that other countries may sometimes supply cheaper beef, but we are confident that the superior quality and food safety of Australian beef gives it advantages that will be increasingly valued by China’s healthconscious consumers.

FINE DEMAND FOR WOOL

China already buys 73% of Australia’s wool, making China our most important export market by a large margin. ChAFTA offers benefits to China’s wool processors and consumers as well as to producers like us.

Tariff barriers are not the issue as Australian wool already enters China effectively free of duties, but quantities are limited by quotas. ChAFTA provides for an additional special quota of 30,000 tonnes of Australian clean wool, and this will increase by 5% each year.

Our family produces very fine Merino wool, in the 16-19 micron range. Wools of this quality are used in the production of premium quality clothing garments and we are proud to produce a premium product. Wool production is one of Australia’s most historic industries and one that has enjoyed significant comparative advantages. To us, however, these factors count for little unless consumer demand is maintained. We are therefore enthusiastic about the benefits offered

by ChAFTA. Chinese importers will have access to more of our wool. This will benefit producer and consumer alike as more top-quality clothing can be supplied to China’s consumers, as well as exported by China’s processors to discerning consumers in other countries.

REINVESTMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH

Improved cattle prices during 2015 have been promising, and the trend has continued during the first months of the Year of the Monkey.

Smaller improvements in wool prices have also been good news for us.

At 810 hectares, Woolpack Creek is large by international standards, but in Australia it is a typical livestock farm. While higher prices have been encouraging, we know that we must improve productivity to sustain our business into the long term. Accordingly, increased income from our beef and wool sales is already being reinvested in improving on-farm infrastructure. The highest priority is being given to improving water supply and upgrading livestock handling facilities.

Like many other families, my family is quietly proud of our heritage, but we give more attention to the future – a future we are now more confident about as trade and people-to-people links between Australia and China strengthen and mature.

快的进口部门。在此背景之下，《中澳自由贸易 协定》当中所包含的细节更是令人振奋不已—— 12-25%的关税将逐步下调，并到2024年1月1日 前全面取消。这对于中国消费者以及澳大利亚生 产者而言均是重大利好。 我们家庭并没有直接出口牛肉。相反，和其它 生产者一样，我们将牛肉卖给少数拥有牌照并受 到严格监管的出口商，由后者与中国和其它国际 市场对接。我们对向中国出口更多牛肉、以满足 中国消费者对红色肉类日益增长之需求的美好前 景充满期待。我们承认其它国家可能会供应更便 宜的牛肉，但我们也深信澳大利亚牛肉在品质和 安全性方面的巨大优势必将赢得中国健康意识日 益提高的消费者们的更多青睐。 对羊毛的巨大需求 中国购买了澳大利亚73%的羊毛，令其成为澳大 利亚最重要的出口市场。《中澳自由贸易协定》 不仅给中国的羊毛加工企业和消费者、同时也为 我们这样的生产者带来诸多好处。关税壁垒已不 再是问题所在，因为澳大利亚羊毛已可免税进入 中国市场，但在数量方面却面临着配额限制。 《中澳自由贸易协定》为澳大利亚洗净羊毛提供 了额外3万吨的特殊配额，并且每年还将递增5%。 我们家庭生产超细型美利奴羊毛（16-19微 米）。这个等级的羊毛主要用于生产顶级品质的 服装。我们很自豪能够生产这种顶级的产品。羊 毛生产是澳大利亚历史悠久的产业之一，同时也 是具备重大相对优势的产业之一。但对我们而 言，除非消费者的需求维持不变，否则这些因素 意义不大。因此，我们对于《中澳自由贸易协 定》所提供的诸多利好满怀期待。 中国进口商有望进口更多的澳大利亚羊毛。无 论是生产者还是消费者均将从中受益，因为不仅 中国的消费者将可以买到更多品质优越的服装， 中国的加工企业也可将这些高级服装卖给其它国 家那些眼光挑剔的消费者。 通过再投资来实现可持续增长 2015年期间肉牛价格涨势喜人，而这种趋势在猴 年前几个月期间也得到保持。羊毛价格的小幅上涨 对于我们而言也属利好。按照国际标准来看，占地 810公顷的Woolpack Creek农场着实不小，但在 澳大利亚它仅仅属于一个典型畜牧场的规模。虽然 更高的价格令人欢欣鼓舞，我们也深知必须提高产 能方可确保业务的长久发展。有鉴于此，我们将牛 肉和羊毛销售所获得的更高收入进行了再投资，用 以改善农场的基础设施。当前的最高优先考虑是改 善供水设施以及升级牲畜装卸设施。 和许多其它家庭一样，我的家庭对于我们所从 事的传统事业深以为荣，但我们对未来更加关 注——随着中澳两国之间的贸易以及两国人民之 间的联系不断加强并且迈向成熟，我们对这个美 好未来也抱以巨大的信心和憧憬。

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NEWS BRIEFS 新讯妙闻

VITAMIN SALES HAZARDOUS TO RETAILERS’ HEALTH 维生素零售商危机暗潜 A major Australian retailer has reported a significant decrease in the sales of vitamins after Beijing announced modifications to import regulations. Confirmed sales of Blackmores and Swisse have sharply declined with the announcement in April, the Australian Financial Review reported a company representative as saying.

The representative asked not to be named. China has since allowed a one year grace period to implement the new regulations. 据澳大利亚一个大型零售商报道，北京修订商品进口规定以 后其维生素产品销售大幅降低。澳佳宝（Blackmores）和 瑞思（Swisse）（澳大利亚知名保健品品牌）也证实自4月 份中国进口新规颁布以来销售量骤减——《澳大利亚金融评 论报》报道一名企业代表如是说（该代表要求匿名）。据 悉，针对该规定，中国当局提供了一年的宽限期。

HUAWEI SUES SAMSUNG 华为三星对簿公堂 Chinese smartphone maker Huawei has filed a lawsuit against Samsung alleging numerous patent infringements involving mobile devices and cellular-communications technology. Huawei filed the lawsuit in China and the US, the world's largest smartphone markets, seeking compensation for 11 patents which covers cellular network protocol. This will be the first significant legal challenge to the Korean giant by a Chinese competitor.

中国智能手机制造商华为向三 星提起诉讼，指称其涉多项专 利侵权，包括移动装置和蜂窝 通信技术。华为分别在中国和 美国——全球最大的两大智能 手机市场——提起诉讼，针对 包括蜂窝网络协议在内的11项 专利技术求偿。此举为中国竞 争对手首次向韩国行业巨头提 出重大法律挑战。

UBS: MINING STOCKS SET TO REBOUND 瑞银集团：矿业股票卷土重来 Mining stocks are poised to be the next hot sector in small caps, according to the UBS’ small company team.

They say that the miners who have managed to survive the drastic downturn in the mining boom have been forced to create numerous efficiencies over the past five years. This productivity, combined with a stabilised commodities market, bodes well for the outlook of mining stocks. 据瑞银集团（UBS）小型企业团队消息，矿业股票即将成为小 型股中的下一个大热门。瑞银集团称，过去五年来采矿业繁 荣之后的急剧下降迫使矿工们效率大幅提升。生产率的提升 和稳定发展的商品市场，预示着矿业股票的良好前景。 22 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

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ANCIENT CHINESE BREW DISCOVERED 中国古法酿方出土 People in ancient China may have been brewing beer as early as 5,000 years ago, according to archaeological researchers at Stanford University. A site in North China has revealed barley residue and pottery tools that could have been used for making beer, a claim supported through chemical analysis. Researchers have already been contacted by beer companies looking to replicate the ancient brew. 据斯坦福大学考古学研究人员发现，早在5000 年前的古代中国，人们已经开始酿造啤酒。华 北某地出土的啤酒麦糟和陶制工具经化学分析 证实为啤酒酿造之用。已有啤酒企业与研究人 员联系旨在复制古老的华夏酿方。

GM RECALLS MILLIONS 通用汽车公司召回 200万辆问题汽车 General Motors will recall 2.16 million cars in China due to faulty crankcase valves. An investigation was initiated by regulators after complaints about engine problems in some GM cars. The results revealed that the valves were not adequately resistant to corrosion, which could lead to engine damage. The recall will only affect cars sold in China. 因曲轴箱阀门问题，通用汽车公司（GM）将在华召回 216万辆汽车。在收到消费者反映部分通用汽车发动机 问题的投诉之后，有关机构展开调查。调查结果显示， 通风阀门耐腐蚀性不够，可能导致发动机损坏。本次召 回仅面向在华出售的部分通用汽车。

Photo by Sean Gallup – Getty Images

NEW MAGGIE BEER HEAD SETS SIGHTS ON CHINA 麦姬比尔新任掌舵人瞩目中国 New Maggie Beer chair Tony Robinson is eager to ramp up a push into the Chinese market.

Robinson is anticipating rising demand from China’s ever-growing middle class for higher-end Australian food products. He told the Australian Financial Review he anticipates Maggie Beer’s brand recognition and reputation for quality produce will appeal to the premium end of the market. 商道

麦姬·比尔（Maggie Beer）农 场商店新主席Tony Robinson希望 加大进军力度入驻中国市 场。Robinson预计中国不断壮大 的中产阶级对更高端澳大利亚食 品的需求也不断攀升。他向《澳大 利亚金融评论报》表示，预计麦 姬·比尔优质农产品的品牌认可度 和声誉会为其赢得高端市场。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 23

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Chinese property developers Greenland Group and Golden Horse have agreed to a large joint venture deal for the proposed $A1.6 billion residential project in the Ashmore precinct of Erskineville, inner Sydney. The sevenhectare residential area will be the site of the construction of 1600 apartments. Golden Horse is well-established in China but will benefit from Greenland’s experience in Australia.

GREENLAND, GOLDEN HORSE TEAM UP FOR SYDNEY DEVELOPMENT “绿地”与“金马”并肩携手进军悉尼

中国房地产开发商绿地集团与金马地产达成合 资协议，规划在内悉尼厄斯金内威尔 （Erskineville）的Ashmore兴建价值约16亿澳 元的住宅项目。该项目占地面积七公顷，将建 成包括1600套公寓的住宅区。金马控股集团植 根于中国，此次将借助绿地在澳大利亚地产市 场的经验，获益良多。

APPLE IN THE DRIVING SEAT 苹果“领航” Apple has been investing more in developing auto technologies than any major car maker, including R&D industry leader Tesla, say Morgan Stanley analysts.

Apple recently announced a $US1 billion investment in China’s ride-hailing leader Didi, a rival to Uber.

The report states that Apple could gain a similar share in the shared mobility market as it currently holds in smartphones at around 16%. 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析员称，苹果加大 对汽车技术发展的投资，远超其它各大汽车制造商，包 括研发领军企业特斯拉（Tesla）。日前，苹果宣布对中 国热门打车软件、优步（Uber）的竞争对手“滴滴出 行”投资10亿美元。报道指出，苹果可能藉此在共享出 行市场获得与智能手机市场大约16%的类似份额。

PENFOLDS TEMPTS ASIAN BIG SPENDERS WITH HIGH-END VINTAGE 奔富以高端酒吸引亚洲土豪 Treasury Wine Estates is wooing opulent Asian private collectors with barrels of prestige red wine. The new wine from the luxury Penfolds brand looks to continue the success of last year’s secret project by going public with this year’s version at a cost of $A198,000 a barrel. Purchases come with the opportunity to visit the South Australian winery for an exclusive look at the new wine’s production process, which analysts say could yield as little as 12 barrels.

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富邑葡萄酒集团（Treasury Wine Estates）以其名贵的红葡萄酒受 到亚洲私人收藏家的青睐。旗下 贵族品牌奔富（Penfolds）的新 酒有望通过公开拍卖延续去年秘 密项目的辉煌：实现今年每桶 198,000澳元的高端售价。购买者 还能获得参观南澳大利亚酿酒厂 一睹新酿酒生产过程的殊荣。据 分析师透露，该酿酒厂年产量仅 为12桶。

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BENDABLE SMARTPHONES TO HIT MARKET THIS YEAR 柔性智能手机今年上市 Unknown China startup Moxi is aiming to offer the first ever bendable smartphones for sale later this year. The devices will only be available with black and white displays at first in an effort to beat Samsung to market.

The smartphones, which can be curled up and worn as a bracelet, will sell for about $A1,000. Moxi Group says it will ship 100,000 phones this year. 名不见经传的中国新创企业墨希科（Moxi Group）计 划于今年发布迄今为止第一款柔性智能手机。该设备第 一代产品仅配有黑白墨水屏幕显示，或将成为三星同类 型手机的一大竞争对手。柔性智能手机能弯曲作为手镯 佩戴，售价约为1000澳元。墨希科称今年该智能电话将 投产100,000台。

TRIGUBOFF NAMED AUSTRALIA’S RICHEST Triguboff摘得“澳洲首富”头衔 Harry Triguboff has ranked first on the BRW Rich 200 list for the first time after 33 consecutive appearances. The property magnate’s wealth hit a record A$10.62 billion, enough to become Australia’s richest person. The property boom provided a boost to Triguboff, the owner of the Meriton Group. Gina Rinehart fell from the first position for the first time since 2011. The new results reflect an increase in property valuations, along with a diminishment of the mining boom.

Harry Triguboff在2016年的商业评 论200强富豪榜单上位列第一。这 是他首次问鼎该榜单，过去33年 里，他的名字均连续出现。身为澳 洲房产大亨，Triguboff先生个人身 家达到106.2亿元，荣膺澳洲首富。 房地产业的繁荣是Meriton Group 老板兼总裁Triguboff发达的强大助 力。采矿业亿万富翁Gina Rinehart 则自2011年以来首次落下第一名的 宝座。新的排行榜反映出随着采矿 业的式微，房地产业渐趋兴盛。

SAMSUNG, ALIBABA TEAM UP ON ONLINE PAYMENTS 三星阿里牵手，合作在线支付 Samsung has agreed to collaborate with Alibaba’s financial affiliate on mobile payments, as it struggles to restore its once dominant standing in the Chinese smartphone market.

More than 350 million Chinese use payment systems on their smartphones. Samsung’s service, Samsung Pay, will attain a wide reach in the market by working with Alipay and their 450 million active registered users. 商道

重建其在中国智能手机市场主 导地位的同时，三星与阿里巴巴 旗下金融机构达成协议开展移 动支付合作。使用手机支付系 统的中国用户超过3.5亿。三星 将通过其服务——三星支付—— 与支付宝合作，在该市场占得一 席之地并获得4.5亿活跃注册 用户。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 25

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT 全球快递

资源业退潮，新机遇涌现

KEY BILATERAL ECONOMY INDICATOR 主要双边经济指标

RESOURCES DECLINE MAKES WAY FOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES

LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURE 最新数据 $79.4 Billions | 794亿元 % CHANGE THREE YEARS AGO 对比3年前百分比的变化

by Prof. James Laurenceson, Deputy Director – Australia-China Relations Institute 作者： 詹姆斯·罗文森博士，悉尼科技大学澳中关系研究院

5.6% TOTAL GOODS*

I

n March 2011, the price of Australia’s biggest export earner to China, iron ore, had just come off hitting records highs of nearly USD190 per tonne. At the time the annual value of Australia’s goods exports to China stood at AUD62.7 billion.

Services exports added another AUD5.9 billion. Since then the price of iron ore and coal has collapsed. In March 2016 iron ore was trading at around USD55 per tonne, less than one-third of its peak value.

But despite this, the value of Australia’s goods exports to China had risen to AUD79.4 billion and services $8.8 billion. Far from being a drag on Australia’s economy as many commentators were predicting, China’s transition to a lower “new normal” rate of growth led by consumption and services has created new opportunities for Australian businesses.

The charts opposite tell the full story. The annual value of Australia’s non-mining goods exports to China is up 6.5% on just six months ago and a staggering 130.4% on five years ago. Food and live animal exports have been leading the charge, up 278.2% on five years ago. Then there are services: Chinese tourist arrivals are up 22.3% on one year ago, while Chinese students commencing at Australian schools and universities have jumped an incredible 23.4%. To put all that growth into perspective, Australia’s exports to China of goods and services other than iron ore and coal are now worth more than the total value of exports to Japan, and more than double that to the United States.

Even the performance of Australia’s mining exports to China needs to be kept in perspective. While the value has fallen significantly compared with one year ago, it’s roughly on par with five years ago. And in volume terms China is now importing more Australian iron ore than ever before, rising 6.7% over the past year alone. Australia’s exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China are also only just getting started, reaching USD1.6 billion in 2015, up 127% on the year before.

Expect bigger numbers in the months ahead as the benefits of the historic China-Australia Free Trade Agreement start to kick in.

2

011年3月，澳大利亚对华出口支柱产品铁矿石的价格成功登上了每吨近190美元的 历史最高点。当年澳大利亚对华商品出口总值达到627亿澳元，而服务业出口带来 了59亿澳元的额外收入。自此以后，铁矿石的价格一路暴跌。2016年3月，铁矿石已跌 至每吨55美元左右，不及其最高价位的三分之一。 尽管如此，澳大利亚对华商品出口总值依然增长至794亿澳元，服务业出口总值亦增 长至88亿澳元。中国向以消费和服务为主导的“新常态”更低增长率的过渡并未像许多 评论员所预测的那样拖累澳大利亚经济，反而为澳大利亚企业创造了各种新的机遇。 附图所揭示的情况一目了然。澳大利亚每年非矿业商品对华出口总值在短短六个月时 间内上升了6.5%，与五年前相比更是实现了130.4%的巨大增长。跑在最前列的是食品和 活畜出口，在五年时间内增长了278.2%。在服务业方面，入境中国游客数量较一年前增 长了22.3%，而入读澳大利亚各所高校的中国留学生数量更实现了23.4%的惊人增长。将 所有增长综合考虑在内的话，澳大利亚除铁矿石和煤炭之外的对华商品和服务出口总值 已超过了澳大利亚对日本的出口总值，并且是澳大利亚对美国出口总值的两倍以上。 其实即便是澳大利亚对华矿业商品的出口表现也需客观看待。虽然与一年前相比出口 总值显著下滑，但其与五年前的水平旗鼓相当。并且从数量上来看，中国目前所进口的 澳大利亚铁矿石也比过去多得多，仅与去年相比就增长了6.7%。澳大利亚对华液化天然 气出口亦才刚刚起步，2015年的出口总值达到16亿美元，较去年增长了127%。 随着历史性的《中澳自由贸易协定》开始生效，预计在2016年未来几个月内这些数据 还将迎来喜人增长。

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商品整体 LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURE 最新数据 $48.7 Billions | 487亿元 % CHANGE THREE YEARS AGO 对比3年前百分比的变化

-10.5%

MINING* 矿产业 LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURE 最新数据 $30.7 Billions | 307亿元 % CHANGE THREE YEARS AGO 对比3年前百分比的变化

42.6% NON-MINING* 非矿产业

LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURE 最新数据 $8.8 Billions | 88亿元 % CHANGE THREE YEARS AGO 对比3年前百分比的变化

SERVICES

42.6%

服务业

LATEST AVAILABLE FIGURE 最新提供的图

% CHANGE THREE YEARS AGO 三年前变化百分比

IRON ORE

COAL

铁矿

煤炭

$37.6 bns | 376亿元 -7.1%

$5.8 bns | 58亿元 -18.2%

FOOD & LIVE ANUMALS

TOURIST ARRIVALS

食物及活畜

抵达游客

$4.8 bns | 48亿元 128.2%

$1.09 m | 10.9万元 67.7%

LNG (LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS) 液化天然气

$1.6 bns | 16亿元 127% changed on year ago

COMMENCING STUDENTS 学生

46,370 名 50.9%

*12 months to March 2016. http://stat.abs.gov.au/

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT 全球快递

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES, CREDITS, CALENDAR YEAR BY COUNTRY & SERVICE, $M – SERVICES CREDITS

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES, CREDITS, CALENDAR YEAR BY COUNTRY & SERVICE, $M – CHINA (EXCLUDING SARS AND TAIWAN)

各国国际服务贸易年总额

CHINA (EXCLUDING SARS AND TAIWAN)

中国国际服务贸易年总额 （不包括香港和台湾）

中国

（不包括香港 和台湾）

TRANSPORTATION 交通:

2015:

$9,840m 98.4亿元

2012: $6,313m 63.13亿元

2013: $7,064m

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

70.64亿元

2014: $8,214m 82.14亿元

2015:

$7,888m

$5,012m 2012: $4,034m

78.88亿元

50.12亿元

UNITED KINGDOM

40.34万元

2012: $5,516m 55.16亿元

2013: $6,250m 62.5亿元

英国

2014: $6,645m

2013: $4,203m

66.45亿元

42.03万元

2014: $4,607m 46.07万元

ASIA NES (not elsewhere specified)

亚洲

2012: $3,537m

2012: $3,370m

（未列名）

2015:

2015:

$4,217m

$4,144m

42.17亿元

41.44亿元

35.37万元

2013: $3,719m

NEW ZEALAND

2014 2013

$386m $305m

2012

$255m

TRAVEL 旅游: 2015

$8,615m

2014 2013

$7,147m $6,208m

2012

$5,660m

2013: $3,562m 35.62亿元

2014: $4,039m

新西兰

2015

$41m

2014 2013

$46m $49m

2012

$37m

FINANCIAL SERVICES 金融服务: 2015

$370m

2014 2013

$302m $196m

2012

$88m

GOVERNMENT GOODS & SERVICES NIE 政府商品与服务: 2015

$71m

2014 2013

$67m $60m

2012

$47m *12 months to March 2016. http://stat.abs.gov.au/

33.7亿元

40.39亿元

Prof. James Laurenceson Deputy Director, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) University of Technology, Sydney 詹姆斯·罗文森教授 悉尼科技大学澳中关 系研究所副所长

37.19万元

2014: $4,039m 40.39万元

$441m

INSURANCE & PENSION SERVICES 保险及养老:

美国

2015:

2015

*12 months to March 2016. http://stat.abs.gov.au/

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Illustration by Gregory Baldwin @ The Illustration Room

COVER STORY

封面故事

by Simon Barrett, Partner and Chairman of L.E.K. Australia 作者：西蒙·巴雷特，艾意凯澳 大利亚咨询公司合伙人兼总裁

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封面故事

品牌澳洲

BRAND AUSTRALIA

Chinese tourism represents an area of particular potential for Australia because of its synergies with other important sectors such as education, real estate, infrastructure and consumer goods, to name a few. This could just be the tip of the iceberg, according to L.E.K. Consulting’s recent survey.

得益于与其它一系列重要产业（比如教育、房地产、 基础设施和生活消费品等等）之间形成的协同效应， 中国旅游业已成为澳大利亚拥有重大发展潜力的一个 领域。根据艾意凯咨询公司近期开展的一项调查， 我们目前所知的仅仅是“冰山一角”。

C

hina is now officially Australia’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade between the two countries amounting to AUD150 billion in 2014-15.

It accounts for the largest single-country share of Australia’s exports (28%) and imports (17%), and the recently signed China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) is set to further accelerate trade growth.

Growth in tourism has been particularly strong, with the number of Chinese visits hitting one million per year for the first time in 2015, following 19% annual growth between 2010-15. These numbers can be expected to rise in the coming years.

It would be shortsighted to view the tourism sector, or any sector for that matter, as a silo. With the increasing diversity of Australian exports to China and growth in areas such as education, real estate and infrastructure, as well as particular strength in the demand for Australian wine, beef

中

国如今已正式成为澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴；20142015年期间两国之间的双向贸易额达到1500亿澳 元。中国是澳大利亚出口（28%）和进口（17%）领域所 占比重最大的单一国家，而近期两国签署的《中澳自由贸 易协定》更将进一步推动两国之间的贸易增长。 旅游业的增长势头尤为迅猛。2010-2015年期间来澳旅 游的中国游客数量以每年19%的速度递增，2015年更是首 次突破100万人次。预计未来几年内，中国游客的数量还将 继续攀升。 将旅游业或与之相关的任何行业视为一个“独立筒仓” 的行为均属目光短浅之举。随着澳大利亚对华出口的日益 多元化以及教育、房地产和基础设施等各个领域的风生水 起，再加上中国人对澳大利亚葡萄酒、牛肉和维生素产品 的强劲需求，旅游业有望为其它产业部门带来不可估量的 巨大附带效益——前提是二者之间的协同效应被澳大利亚 决策者以及广大企业所认可并加以利用。 艾意凯咨询公司对过去三年内曾经来澳的中国游客开展

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AUSTRALIA IS EXPERIENCING EXTRAORDINARY GROWTH IN CHINESE VISITORS 访澳的中国游客人数正迅速增长

CHINESE VISITORS TO AUSTRALIA 2005-15 2005-15年中国游客访澳

MILLIONS 数百万

• Steady growth of Chinese visitors to 2009 • Much stronger 2005-15: 1m visitors passed in November 2015 • Expected to reach c.2m visitors p.a. by 2025

1.0

19% GROWTH P.A. 19%年均增长

6% GROWTH P.A.

0.5

6%年均增长

• 至2009年中国游客 访澳稳定增长 • 2005-15年增长迅 猛：2015年11月访 澳人次达1百万人 • 预计2025年游客数 量每年达2百万人 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

and vitamins, tourism has the potential to offer significant flow-on benefits to other sectors – provided the synergies between them are recognised and capitalised on by Australian policy-makers and businesses.

L.E.K. Consulting undertook a targeted survey of Chinese visitors to Australia in the past three years to help shed light on the powerful links between Chinese tourism and other sectors of the Australian economy, which are not yet well understood. This is only the tip of the iceberg, both in our understanding of tourism’s potential benefits, and of the benefits themselves.

BEYOND TOURISM

In the first quarter of 2016, we conducted a survey of 514 recent Chinese visitors to Australia. The aim was to understand their existing and potential levels of economic engagement beyond tourism. We wanted to quantify the likelihood that these visitors would pursue deeper economic engagement with Australia after their initial visit, and also to understand the extent to which their recent visits had influenced them to pursue (or not pursue) that engagement.

The survey consisted of 50 questions and was conducted online over a one-week period. The majority of respondents came from Tier 1 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. All were in China at the time of taking the survey, and had travelled to Australia in the past three years.

We selected this time-frame not only to focus on recent 30 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Tourism Research Australia; L.E.K. research and analysis

了一项针对性的调查，以帮助弄清中国旅游业与澳大利亚 其它产业部门之间尚待全面发掘的密切联系。无论是旅游 业所带来的各种潜在裨益，还是对于这些裨益本身，我们 目前所知的都仅仅是“冰山一角”。 旅游业之外 在2016年一季度，我们对514位近期来澳的中国游客开展 了一项调查，以了解他们在旅游之外与澳大利亚的现有以 及潜在的经济接触情况。我们希望将这些游客在初次游历 澳大利亚之后与澳大利亚开展更深入经济接触的可能性进 行量化，同时了解他们近期的旅游经历给他们未来与澳大 利亚开展（或者不开展）此等经济接触所产生影响的程度。 这项包含50个问题的在线问卷调查持续了一周时间。大 部分应答者均来自于一线城市，比如北京、上海和广州。 所有应答者在参与调查之时均已身在中国，并且在过去三 年内均都去过澳大利亚。我们选择这个三年时限的目的是 为了专注于调查对象最近的旅游经历，同时亦希望反映当 前签证政策所产生的效果，因为中国游客前往澳大利亚旅 游比过去更加容易了。 调查对象男女皆有，收入水平亦有高有低，但绝大部分 都是相对年轻并且受过高等教育的人士。我们的样本中包 含了同等数量的男性和女性，主要年龄介于26-46岁之 间。91%的调查对象拥有本科或以上学历。游客的加权平 均税后收入达到71,290澳元，与澳大利亚的平均收入水平 （即税后年收入约78,000澳元）大致相当。 那么，这项调查到底揭示了中国游客给澳大利亚带来的 哪些深远影响呢？

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AUSTRALIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS SHARE OF CHINESE OUTBOUND TRAVELLERS 澳大利亚一直保持其在中国出境旅客的份额 SHARE OF TOTAL OUTBOUND CHINESE TRAVELLERS

SHARE OF LONG HAUL* OUTBOUND CHINESE TRAVELLERS

中国出境旅客的总数

While the total number of Chinese outbound travellers has grown dramatically, Australia has maintained its share of c.1% of Chinese outbound travellers • Big gainers South Korea and Thailand has added 3.3 and 4ppt, respectively, to their share

%

10

5

1 0

中国出境游客长途旅行的份额

1

2009

%

10

7

然而在同一时间内，澳大利亚在 长途出境的中国游客份额中下降 了约0.7百分点 • 美 国 的 份 额 却 大 幅 增 加 了 约 0.6百分点

5

中国出境游客总人数大幅增长， 澳大利亚在中国出境旅游的份额 上保持着约百分之1的份额 • 韩 国和泰国是大赢家，份额分 别增加了3.3和4百分点

0

2014

visits, but also to broadly reflect the effects of current visa requirements, which have made it easier for the Chinese to visit Australia over time.

Survey respondents were distributed across both sexes and a range of income levels, though most were relatively young and highly educated. The sample contained equal numbers of males and females, mainly between 26 and 45.

Ninety-one per cent had a bachelor’s degree or better. The visitors’ weighted average salary after tax of AUD71,290 compares favourably even to the average Australian income, which stands at around AUD78,000 per year before tax.

So, what did the survey uncover about the broader implications of Chinese visits to Australia?

6

However, Australia has lost c.0.7ppt of its share of long haul outbound Chinese travellers over the same time period • The US has seen a substantial gain of share of c.6ppt

2009

2014

NOTE: Long haul destinations exclude Northeast, Southeast, and Central Asia Source: Euromonitor; L.E.K. research and analysis

近半游客属于故地重游 如今，在来澳旅游的中国人当中，有将近一半属于故地 重游。我们很想知道在这种状况背后游客与澳大利亚之间 存在哪些更深入的联系，以及旅游与其它类型的经济接触 之间可能存在哪些具体的关联。我们提出的一些问题包括： • 有多少游客的子女在澳大利亚求学？ • 有多少游客已投资于澳大利亚的房地产或一家企业？ • 此次旅游是否改变了游客的预期未来行为？ • 当他们回到中国之后，此次旅游是否改变了他们对澳大 利亚商品和服务的消费习惯？ • 这些变化的影响有多大？ 我们的研究结果为围绕这些问题的讨论提供了必要的数 据。我们的目的不是要获得与来澳中国游客微观行为有关 的精确数据，而是要验证我们关于中国游客在旅游业和零 售业之外隐藏着更大经济潜力的总体直觉，并大致估算出 该项潜力的量级。 许多游客自称是澳大利亚永久居民 出乎我们意料的是，我们发现即使所有的调查对象都在 中国生活，20%的样本仍声称他们拥有澳大利亚永久居民 身份。对于这种结果，我们多少是有些怀疑的。但是，这 个数据反映了一个重要现象，即许多中国游客已经与澳大 利亚进行了远超出旅游之外的深入经济接触。 由于较高比例的永久居民可能会导致分析结果上的偏 差，故我们选择将那些自称是永久居民的调查对象与非永 久居民的调查对象作为独立的群组进行分析。 在永久居民这个群组中，调查对象与澳大利亚之间存在 着更为显著的经济接触： • 34%的人自身或有子女在澳大利亚接受高等教育； • 45%的人已经购置了不动产； • 25%的人已投资于一家企业； 显而易见，这个群组当中的很多人士与澳大利亚之间存

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NEARLY HALF ARE REPEAT VISITORS

在着更深入的经济接触。这一点完全都在我们的意料之 中，但鉴于他们都表示自己仍然在中国生活的事实，这些 数据着实引人瞩目。 在非永久居民群体当中，参与上述活动的人士依然占 到较大的比重：9%的人自身或有子女在澳大利亚接受高等 教育；5%的人已经购置了不动产；3%的人已经收购了一家 企业。

Today, almost half of Chinese visitors to Australia are repeat visitors. We were interested in what kind of deeper connection with Australia this might represent, and to see what specific links there might be between tourism and other types of economic engagement. Some of our questions were: • How many visitors have their children in education in Australia?

• How many have invested in real estate or in a business?

• Did the visit change people’s intended future behaviour?

• When they returned to China, did it change their consumption of goods and services from Australia?

• How significant could the effects of these changes be?

The results of our research bring much-needed data to the conversation around these issues. Our interest here was not to get precise numbers about what Chinese visitors to Australia are doing at a micro level, but to validate our overall intuition that Chinese visits could have greater economic potential outside the tourism and retail industries, and to broadly estimate that potential’s magnitude.

Chinese investment in Australia

MANY CLAIM TO BE PERMANENT RESIDENTS

Somewhat to our surprise, we found that even though all of the survey respondents live in China, 20% of the sample claimed to have Australian permanent resident status.

We are inclined to treat this observation with some scepticism. Yet, these claims point to an important phenomenon – that many Chinese visitors already have significant economic engagement with Australia that goes well beyond mere tourism.

Since the high proportion of PRs could skew the results of our analysis, we chose to examine self-reported PRs and non-PRs as separate groups.

When looking at PRs alone, the level of broader economic engagement is significant: • 34% had pursued tertiary education for themselves or their children • 45% had bought real estate • 25% had invested in a business Clearly, many in this group already have a deep economic engagement in Australia. On one level, this is not surprising, but it does become more noteworthy when one considers that they all said that they still reside in China.

For the non-PR group, the proportion that had pursued these activities was still significant: 9% had sought education in Australia for themselves or their children, 5% had bought real estate and 3% had acquired a business.

While smaller than the percentages we found for the PR group, in absolute terms these still represent significant numbers: just 3% of 800,000 non-PR visitors investing in a business is 24,000 people in total.

When we asked this non-PR group not just what they had already done, but also what they were definitely or probably 商道

Chinese investors in Australia continue to pile into the property market, with investment in real estate growing to AUD24 billion in 2014-15, double the previous year’s figure. But they are also choosing to invest their wealth across other sectors of the economy, including agriculture, finance and manufacturing.

In 2014-15, China was the largest foreign investor in Australia, with investments almost double the value of those originating from the United States, the second-largest source of foreign investment in Australia.

Early figures following the launch of the ChinaAustralia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), show a promising future not only for Chinese investment in Australia, but also for Australian exports to China.

For example, in the first two months of 2016, frozen beef sales to China rose to AUD95 million, up 44% on the same period last year, while bottled wine sales climbed 122% to AUD143 million.

中国人在澳大利亚的投资 中国投资者继续争先恐后地挤入澳大利亚的房地产 市场；2014-2015年期间中国人对澳大利亚房地产的投 资总额上升至240亿澳元，较去年相比翻了一倍。但他 们亦在选择投资于澳大利亚的其它经济部门，包括农 业、金融和制造业等等。 2014-2015年期间，中国成为澳大利亚最大的投资 国，投资总额几乎是美国的一倍；美国是澳大利亚第 二大投资国。 《中澳自由贸易协定》签署之后的初步数据表明： 不仅中国在澳投资前景看好，澳大利亚对华出口亦 现增长之势。例如，在2016年前两个月期间，澳大利 亚对华冻牛肉出口总值上升至9500万澳元，与去年同 期相比增长了44%；瓶装葡萄酒的销售额亦增长了 122%，达到1.43亿澳元。

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the pure essentials of watchmaking, elevated to the level of art.

SEIKO BOUTIQUE AUSTRALIA 34 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

道 Shop 63, Lower Ground Floor, Queen Victoria商Building, 455 George Street, SYDNEY NSW 2000

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A BIGGER SHARE OF CHINESE VISITORS ARE COMING TO AUSTRALIA ON A REPEAT VISIT 越来越多中国游客是重复访问澳大利亚

CHINESE VISITORS TO AUSTRALIA BY FREQUENCY 中国游客到访澳大利亚的频率 %

270

784

100

REPEAT VISIT 75

重复访问

37

REPEAT VISIT 重复访问

46

50

FIRST VISIT 首次访问

25

0

63

FIRST VISIT 首次访问

2005

going to do, the numbers became much greater: • 74% planned to pursue education in Australia, either themselves or for their children, or already had • 48% planned to buy real estate, or already had • 41% planned to acquire a business, or already had When asked how significant their first visit was to their decision-making, 85% said they had been influenced or highly influenced by coming to Australia.

BOON FOR AUSTRALIAN PRODUCTS

We also asked survey participants about their consumption of Australian goods and services while in China.

Chinese visitors to Australia are already alert to the attractions of Australian products, particularly meat, dairy, wine and vitamins. Before their first visit to the country, 71% already bought Australian goods and services regularly. However, this rose to 93% after the visit.

These respondents’ average spending on Australian goods and services rose from AUD2,700 per year to AUD3,700 per year after their visit: a 40% increase.

Such changes in spending are fuelling the phenomenal and well-known growth of companies like Blackmores and Swisse in the Chinese market.

ENORMOUS BROADER OPPORTUNITY

Having some of these basic numbers, we are able to illustrate the dollar value of the broader opportunity arising from Chinese tourism to Australia.

54

2014

• Chinese visitors to Australia are increasingly coming on repeat visits • Sign of positive experience that they want to repeat • Repeat visits could be to pursue deeper economic engagement • Recent changes to visa rules (e.g. ten-year multiple entry) could drive higher proportion of repeat visitors • 中国游客重复访澳的次数越来越多 • 良好的体验让他们想再次访澳 • 重复访问能促进更深入的经济接触 • 最 近对签证规条的修改（例如10年内多出 入境）可能会推动更多游客重复访澳 Source: Tourism Research Australia; L.E.K. research and analysis

虽然各项比例均低于永久居民群组，但从绝对数量来 看，这些比例依然代表着惊人的数字：按80万非永居民游 客来计算，即使只有3%的人投资于一家企业，实际人数也 达到了2.4万人。 对于非永久居民群组，除了过去的所行所为之外，我们 还询问了他们未来必然或可能的打算。我们得到了更大的 比例： • 74%的人计划在澳大利亚求学（无论是自身还是子女， 或已经在就读之中）； • 48%的人计划购置不动产，或者已经购入； • 41%的人计划收购一家企业，或者已经收购。 当询问他们首次出游澳大利亚的经历给他们后来所做的 决定带来了何种程度的影响之时，85%的调查对象表示他 们均受到了一定影响或重大影响。 对澳大利亚产品的恩泽 我们还询问了调查对象在中国生活期间对澳大利亚商品 和服务的消费情况。 来澳旅游的中国游客均已对澳大利亚产品的吸引力有 所了解，尤其是肉类、乳品、葡萄酒和维生素。在他们首 次去澳旅游之前，71%的调查对象均有定期购买澳大利亚 商品和服务的习惯；在旅游归来之后，这个比例上升至 93%。 在旅游归来之后，这些调查对象每年购买澳大利亚 商品和服务的平均支出从2,700澳元上升至3,700澳元， 增长了40%。这种支出上的变化成就了澳佳宝 （Blackmores）以及瑞思（Swisse）等品牌在中国市场 上的现象级增长。 商道

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THE FIRST VISIT TO AUSTRALIA LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO PURCHASED AUSTRALIAN GOODS AND SERVICES IN CHINA AND THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL SPEND 初次访问澳大利亚后，在中国购买澳大利亚商品和服务的数量和平均年花费增加 VISITORS* WHO PURCHASED AUSTRALIAN GOODS AND SERVICES IN CHINA 在中国购买澳大利亚商品和服务的游客 NO/DON’T KNOW % 417 不/不知道

ANNUAL AVERAGE SPEND PER VISITOR* ON AUSTRALIAN GOODS AND SERVICES IN CHINA 每年每个游客在中国购买澳大利亚商品和服务的平均花费 A$000S^

100 90 80

5.0

不/不知道

70

YES

50 30

SERVICES

2.7

60 40

3.7

NO/DON’T KNOW

2.5

是

YES

服务

SERVICES 服务

是

GOODS

GOODS

20

商品

商品

10 0

0.0

PRE-FIRST AUSTRALIA VISIT 初次到访澳大利亚前

POST-FIRST AUSTRALIA VISIT

PRE-FIRST AUSTRALIA VISIT

初次到访澳大利亚后

AVERAGE VALUE OF EACH PURCHASE 每次购买的平均值

C.A$108

初次访问澳大利亚前

C.A$118

初次访问澳大利亚后

NOTE: *Excluding Permanent Residents; ^At an exchange rate of A$1:RMB4.7 Source: L.E.K. research and analysis

Though it would be dangerous to view extrapolations from a sample of 500 people as definitive, we nevertheless offer them to give a general estimate of the potential economic impact.

First, we needed to find the average value of the transactions we expect visitors to engage in: • A repeat tourism visit is worth AUD5,300.

• Those engaging in education are estimated to spend AUD50,000 per year on tuition fees and living expenses combined, for two years on average.

• Real estate investment is estimated at an average of AUD400,000 per investor.

• We assume average annual turnover in business investment of AUD1 million per respondent expressing this intention (although survey respondents recorded values for planned investment of up to AUD7 million).

Taking these figures at face value, we can extrapolate the total value of this activity to Australia.

Australia generates AUD5.3 billion per year from tourism alone, based on the observation of a AUD5,300 average spend multiplied by 1 million total visitors per year in 2015.

But now we can also look at the potential scale of Chinese visitors’ broader engagement with the Australian economy: • The 73% of respondents who said they planned a repeat visit are worth a total of AUD3.9 billion in spending each year.

• The 9% that have already commenced education will be worth an estimated AUD9 billion (assuming two years of study).

36 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

POST-FIRST AUSTRALIA VISIT

巨大而广泛的商机 在获得这些基本数据之后，我们终于能够诠释中国游客 来澳旅游所催生的更大商机的具体价值所在。 虽然通过500人的样本来做出终极推断实属冒险之举， 但我们还是要利用他们对潜在的经济影响做出一个大致 判断。 首先，我们需要了解我们预期游客所将参与的各项交易 的平均价值： • 故地重游价值5,300澳元； • 来澳求学者每年的学费和生活费合计5万澳元，平均学习 年限按两年计算； • 每位投资者的不动产投资平均达到40万澳元； • 我们假设每位有意投资澳大利亚企业的调查对象每年平 均投资100万澳元（虽然调查对象提供的最高计划投资额 为700万澳元）。 通过将所有这些数据全盘考虑在内（按面值计算），我 们将可以推断出这些活动为澳大利亚带来的总收入。 通过将5,300澳元的平均支出乘以2015年来澳旅游的100 万游客，仅仅旅游业一项就将为澳大利亚带来每年53亿澳 元的收入。但现在，我们还可以进一步了解一下中国游客 与澳大利亚进行更深入经济接触的潜在规模： • 有故地重游计划的调查对象（73%）每年将为澳大利亚 带来总计39亿澳元的收入； • 已经在澳大利亚开始求学的人士（9%）将为澳大利亚带 来90亿澳元的收入（假设学习年限为两年）。 这些数据远远超过了直接旅游支出。 除却眼下正在发生的事情，如果我们再进一步审视一下 这些游客未来与澳大利亚进行的潜在经济接触，那么情况

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WHILE GROWTH IN TOURISM IS ATTRACTIVE, THERE ARE MULTIPLE OTHER CATEGORIES OF DEEPER ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT TO CONSIDER 旅游业增长迅猛，其它领域也有更深入的经济接触 Source: L.E.K. research and analysis

VISITORS (FIRST VISIT) 游客 （初次访问）

REPEAT VISITS 重复访问

TERTIARY EDUCATION (SELF OR CHILDREN) 高等教育（自己或儿女）

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 房地产投资

HOW SIGNIFICANT COULD THESE IMPACTS BE? 这些影响有多重要？

BUSINESS INVESTMENT 商业投资

NON-VISITORS

PERMANENT MIGRATION 永久移民

非游客 PREFERENCE FOR AUSTRALIAN GOODS IN CHINA 在中国偏好澳产商品

These are big numbers that begin to dwarf the immediate tourism spending.

But what if we looked at these visitors’ potential economic engagement in the future, not just what is happening right now?

Clearly, we need to take our survey figures with a grain of salt: there is no guarantee that people will be able to follow through on all of their intentions. We also need to acknowledge the implausibility of some of the numbers it is possible to come up with by extrapolating from this data.

For instance, the entire international education market in Australia is worth only AUD15 billion per year today. But if 74% of the 800,000 non-PR Chinese visitors to Australia this year followed through with an intention to pursue tertiary education in this country for themselves or their children, the value of that market would rise to AUD74 billion dollars per year.

Then we can look at real estate and business investment, which in 2015 had a potential value of AUD194 billion and AUD408 billion respectively.

These are very big numbers.

Taking all of the activities we considered together – repeat tourism, education, real estate and business investment, and purchases of Australian goods and services in China – if only one in ten people expressing an intention to engage in economic activity followed through with that intention, it would be worth AUD70 billion annually. By 2025, given a doubling in visitor numbers, the annual value would be AUD140 billion, dwarfing the economic impact of tourism alone.

3 8 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

又当如何呢？ 显而易见，我们需要对我们的调查数据持保守态度：我 们无法保证这些人都会将他们的计划付诸实现。我们亦需 要承认某些数字看上去不太真实可信，无法通过些这数据 来做出推断。例如，整个澳大利亚的国际教育市场仅有每 年150亿澳元的市值。但在今年来澳旅游的80万非永久居 民的中国游客当中，如果有74%的人都将自己或子女在澳 接受高等教育的计划付诸实施的话，那么这块市场的市值 将骤升至每年740亿澳元。 我们再来看一下不动产和商业投资。二者在2015年的潜 在价值分别达到1940亿澳元和4080亿澳元。 这些都是非常大的数字！ 将我们所考虑的所有活动综合来看的话——包括故地重 游、教育、不动产和商业投资，以及在中国购买澳大利亚 的商品和服务——只要十个人之中有一个将其参与相关经 济活动的计划付诸实施的话，那么这些人将为澳大利亚带 来每年700亿澳元的收入。到2025年，考虑到游客数量的 翻番，这项收入届时更将达到每年1400亿澳元，远远超出 旅游业本身所带来的经济影响。 我们还需开展进一步的工作方能提高这些数据的确定性 和准确性。但通过这些数据所做出的推断，以及通过将旅 游业视为中国人与澳大利亚所开展经济接触的一项高度可 见指标的整体分析方法，我们可以清晰地看到这些潜在机 遇所展现出来的巨大量级。 把握当下 近年来中国旅游业的蓬勃发展为澳大利亚带来了巨大的 经济恩泽，但仅仅将目光放在旅游业之上无疑会让我们错 过这个机遇的整片森林。同时被错过的还有该机遇如何出 现以及如何实现利益最大化等细枝末节。

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The vitamin success story

There is further work to be done in establishing more certainty and precision around these figures. But from these extrapolations, and by taking the holistic approach that sees tourism as just one particularly visible indicator of Chinese economic engagement with Australia, we can clearly see the enormous scale of the potential opportunity.

SEIZE THE MOMENT

Recent growth in Chinese tourism is an enormous economic boon to Australia, but focusing on tourism alone misses the full scale of the opportunity. It also misses the nuances of how that opportunity has come about and how to maximise the broader benefits.

When we begin to think about tourism as the front door to much deeper economic engagement, we quickly see that a range of implications and responsibilities arises. To harness the full economic potential of Chinese tourism, government and business will need to take action.

First, there is a need for continued investment in research into the links between Chinese tourism and economic engagement with Australia. Our own preliminary research has only scratched the surface, albeit by firmly establishing that this is an area worthy of far greater attention.

Second, because of the magnitude of the economic opportunity that Chinese tourism opens up, business and government will need to invest in making sure that Australia remains an attractive destination and that visitor numbers continue to grow. At present, Australia is at best merely holding its share of Chinese tourism, and may even be losing share gradually. Other countries, such as the United States, Canada, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore, have also spotted the opportunity and are investing; Australia’s efforts must match theirs.

A good deal of this investment must go towards ensuring that Chinese visitors to Australia have not just a positive experience, but an excellent one. On the government side, there is work to be done in making sure that visa application processes, for the right kind of visitor, run smoothly and are easy to navigate. Other problematic aspects of the traveller 商道

Consumers in China have flocked to online sites such as Alibaba, while Chinese tourists and entrepreneurs visiting Sydney and Melbourne are cleaning out the vitamins section on the shelves of chemist warehouses and supermarkets to take bottles back home.

After a series of contamination scares in China involving milk powder, frozen berries and infant formula, the Blackmores name has been latched onto by shoppers in Shanghai and Beijing as a bastion of ‘clean and green’ quality and trust…

The demand for Australian vitamins is also helping other firms such as Swisse Wellness, which has experienced a strong profit surge. Even some of the almost-forgotten names in healthcare have benefited. The Faulding brand, with smart new packaging for a range of vitamins and probiotics, produced a 29% surge in sales in 2014-15 for its owners, the Australasian firm EBOS Group.

– Simon Evans, “Supercharging Blackmores vitamins profits via Chinese celebrities Li Na and Fan Bingbing,” Sydney Morning Herald, 28 August 2015

大热的维生素 当中国的消费者还在各大在线商城（比如阿里巴 巴）疯狂购物之际，在悉尼和墨尔本旅游的中国游客 和商家正在将Chemist Warehouse以及各大超市货架 上的维生素区扫荡一空。 在中国发生一系列与奶粉、冷冻浆果以及婴儿配方 奶粉相关的污染事件之后，“澳佳宝”作为一个拥 有“清洁、绿色”品质的可靠品牌逐步进入了上海和 北京消费者的视野...... 中国人对澳大利亚维生素的巨大需求亦惠及到包括 瑞思（Swisse Wellness）在内的其它品牌；瑞思的利 润籍此实现了强势增长。那些在保健品行业内名不见 经传的小品牌亦受惠不浅。通过为旗下一系列的维生 素和益生菌产品设计出全新的包装，福多 （Faulding）的销售额在2014-2015年期间实现了29% 的增长；福多是澳大利亚EBOS集团的旗下品牌。 -- Simon Evans报道：“澳佳宝借力中国巨星李娜和 范冰冰为维生素业务的利润加码”，《悉尼先驱晨 报》，2015年8月25日

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AUD

140bn By 2025, given a doubling in visitor numbers, the annual value would be AUD140 billion, dwarfing the economic impact of tourism alone. 到2025年，考虑到游客数量的翻番， 这项收入届时更将达到每年1400亿澳元， 远远超出旅游业本身所带来的经济影响。

experience, such as long queues at airports for the Tourist Refund Scheme, may also be in need of government attention. Government can also play a role in facilitating or encouraging investment to ensure that our airports and other transport facilities are among the world’s best.

Other, ‘softer’ aspects of the travel experience for Chinese visitors also need attention, and this indicates further areas where government investment or policy could be lacking. Australia is blessed with a substantial number of people who are of Chinese birth or descent, including many who are fluent in both Chinese and English. Yet a frequent lack of signage and customer service in Chinese suggests a need for more education in the language for Australians not of a Chinese background. Promoting the acquisition of such skills is a matter not just of investment, but also of appropriate policy.

Provided that Australia is able to maintain or even increase its attraction to Chinese visitors, it is then necessary to more fully harness the opportunities for broader economic engagement that this opens the door to.

There is a particular need for savvy promotion.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROSS-FERTILISATION

In light of our research, it is logical that Australia now has a minister whose portfolio includes both tourism and international education – this is an appropriate reflection of the considerable synergies between tourism and the education industry. It is also laudable that Tourism Australia has promoted not just the country’s outstanding dining scene, but also its related produce, wine, accommodation, transport and tourism industries through the Restaurant Australia campaign. This is one example of well-thought-out cross-promotion, and more needs to be done in this vein. Such promotion should ideally position ‘Brand Australia’ as more than just a tourism destination, highlighting the country’s even more economically 40 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

唯有当我们开始将旅游业视为通往更深入经济接触的大 门之时，我们才能迅速看清其所带来的一系列影响以及我 们的职责所在。为了把握中国旅游业所隐藏的全部经济潜 力，政府和企业亟需采取相应的行动。 首先，我们需要继续投资于相关的研究以探知中国旅游 业与中国游客对澳经济接触之间的关联性。我们自身所开 展的初步研究只不过是管中窥豹——尽管足以断定这个领 域值得我们予以更大的关注。 其次，考虑到中国旅游业所释放出来的巨大经济机遇， 企业和政府必须有所作为以确保澳大利亚依然是一个充满 吸引力的旅游目的地，并且游客数量亦将继续保持增长。 目前，澳大利亚充其量只能保住其在中国旅游市场中所占 的份额，甚至还可能逐步丢失市场份额。美国、加拿大、 新西兰、韩国和新加坡等其它国家均已嗅到并投资于这个 机遇；澳大利亚也必须要迎头赶上。 这项投资当中的很大部分努力必须要确保来澳中国游客 不仅在澳大利亚度过了一段美好时光，同时更收获了一个 难忘的经历。政府需要确保签证申请过程（对于符合条件 的游客）畅通无阻、易于办理。影响游客体验的其它一些 环节，比如机场退税大排长龙等情况亦需引起政府的重 视。通过推动和鼓励相关投资，政府亦可确保我们的机场 以及其它运输设施跻身世界先进水平。 再者，中国游客旅游经历当中的一些“软”环节亦需引 起重视，也就是政府投资或政策所未能顾及的其它领域。 澳大利亚有相当一部分人口是在中国出生或拥有中国 血统，某些人同时会讲流利的中文和英语。但是，中文指 示牌和中文客户服务的普遍缺失表明我们亟需对那些不会 讲中文的澳大利亚人开展更多的语言培训。推动中文水平 的提升不仅仅需要政府的投资，还需要适当的政策进行 推动。 假如澳大利亚能够保持乃至提高其对于中国游客的吸引 力，那么我们将有必要更加全面地把握中国游客与澳大利 亚进行更深入经济接触的机遇。我们尤其需要提高这方面 的认识。 跨界合作的机遇 通过我们开展的研究，我们也可以理解为什么澳大利亚 任命了一位主管旅游和国际教育事务的部长——这也充分 映证了旅游业和教育产业之间的紧密协同效应。值得称道 的是，除了推广本国的一些美食圣地之外，澳大利亚旅游 局亦通过“澳世盛宴（Restaurant Australia）”活动来宣 传相关的产品、葡萄酒、酒店、交通和旅游业。这是一个考 虑周全的跨界宣传典范，政府应当加大在这方面的努力。此

Today, almost half of Chinese visitors to Australia are repeat visitors. 商道

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种宣传方式最好能把“品牌澳洲”不仅仅当作一个旅游目 的地来看待，更要突出澳大利亚在提供各种服务方面的更 重要经济角色，比如教育和优质出口商品。 最后，所有这些活动和改善将需要建立在适当的规划、 制度、法规框架以及基础设施之上。考虑到需求前景十分 看好，政府有必要重新审视一些关键的法律法规，尤其是 与外国投资相关的法律法规。我们需要避免那些因监管不 到位而出现的种种问题，比如对与高端住宅相关的合法投 资进行监察。 在为产能提升、定价、质量控制等环节做规划之时，各 行各业需要把中国游客的未来潜在需求纳入考虑范围。除 了跟上未来十年内中国游客数量的增长步伐之外，基础设 施建设亦需考虑此种增长所带来的传导效应——亦即其所 催生的大量潜在经济活动。 为了充分把握这个巨大的机遇，政府的规划工作将需要 掌握与中国游客来澳旅游趋势以及对相关产品、服务和投 资机遇之需求相关的全面和准确信息。艾意凯咨询公司致 力于深化该领域的知识基础，但我们仅依靠一己之力无法 掌握这个机遇的全貌。这项工作需要澳大利亚企业和政府 的全面参与；我们亦呼吁广大组织和机构开展相关研究以 全面了解中国旅游业将为澳大利亚带来的更深经济潜力。

important role as a provider of services such as education and high-quality export products.

Finally, all of these activities and improvements will need to be built on top of appropriate planning, institutions, regulatory frameworks and infrastructure.

Key regulation, particularly for foreign investment, will need to be reviewed in light of a forecast major upswing in demand. We need to avoid the pitfalls that have already occurred when regulatory oversight was not in place, such as in the monitoring of legitimate investment in high-end residential real estate.

A wide range of industries will need to take potential future demand from Chinese visitors into account when planning capacity growth, pricing, quality assurance efforts and so on. And infrastructure will need to keep pace not only with the increased flow of visitors that China is set to provide over the next decade, but also with the massive potential economic activity that it will stimulate as a flow-on effect.

To respond adequately to this tremendous opportunity, planning efforts will require comprehensive and accurate information about trends in Chinese visits to Australia and demand for associated products, services and investment opportunities. L.E.K. Consulting is committed to deepening the body of knowledge in this area. But this phenomenon cannot be grasped in its totality by just a single firm. It involves Australian business and government in its entirety, and an exceedingly broad range of organisations and institutions will be called upon to study and fully seize the deeper economic potential of Chinese tourism in this country. 商道

What government and businesses need to do: • Invest more in ensuring Australia can continue to attract Chinese tourists • Devote attention to giving Chinese tourists a positive experience by improving visa processes, airports, hotels, public transport and so on • Capitalise on the promotion opportunities these visits create for other sectors, such as education, investment and the export of goods and services • Ensure that institutions, regulatory frameworks and infrastructure are adequately prepared for the high demand that is anticipated

政府和企业需要采取哪些行动： • 尽更大的努力以确保澳大利亚可以继续吸引中国 游客； • 专注于改善中国游客的旅游体验：比如改善签证流 程、机场、酒店、公共交通等等； • 充分把握旅游业为其它行业所创造的带动机遇， 比如教育、投资以及商品和服务出口； • 在制度、法规框架和基础设施方面做好充足准备， 以迎来即将到来的强劲需求。

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by Alistair Nicholas, Executive Vice President – Director, Special Projects at Powell Tate Australia 作者：尼古拉斯 · 阿利斯泰尔, 澳大利亚Powell Tate公司的执行副 总裁－特别项目懂事

纸牌游戏

GAME OF CARDS With Chinese investment in Australia continuing to grab media headlines, Alistair Nicholas provides powerful advice to investors on how they can engage with Australian stakeholders and level the playing field. 鉴于中国在澳投资项目持续见诸报端头条，Alistair Nicholas在 此特向投资者就如何与澳大利亚利益相关方接洽以及寻求公平 竞争等事宜提供以下重要建议。

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atest data from the ABC’s Vote Compass shows that 80% of Australians support tighter controls on foreign investment in Australian farms. Although the Vote Compass survey didn’t ask specific questions about Chinese investment in agriculture, there is reason to think that recent Chinese farmland acquisitions (and interest in some prominent agricultural properties) could be a factor in public sentiment on the issue.

This is despite the fact that data released at the beginning of this year by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that China, in the words of Australia’s Federal Treasury, “remains a relatively minor source” of foreign direct investment. Chinese accumulated direct investment in Australia is dwarfed by the direct investment of the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. Indeed, Chinese investment comprises just 4.4 per cent of total foreign direct investment into Australia.

Yet talk of Chinese investment sends some Australians into conniptions. Indeed, the concern many Australians have over the level of Chinese direct investment appears to have been a factor in the delays of the sale of the

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Kidman & Co properties to Dakang Australia, which has Chinese entity Shanghai Pengxin as its largest shareholder. The Shanghai Pengxin bid had previously been frustrated by the fact that the Kidman holding included a property close to the Australian weapons testing range at Woomera. But even after the Chinese company agreed to carve the sensitive Anna Creek property near the defence facility from the deal it was again put on hold in April, just prior to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull calling the federal election. Although the election is out of the way, a decision is still pending.

Chinese investment comprises just

4.4% of total foreign direct investment into Australia.

商道

澳

大利亚广播公司（ABC）开展的“投票指 南调查”显示，80%的澳大利亚人支持收 紧对外国在澳农场投资的管控。虽然“投票指南 调查”并没有提出与中国在澳农业投资相关的具 体问题，但我们有理由相信中国近期对农业用地 的收购活动（以及对某些重要农业地产的收购意 向）引发了公众对于此事的关注。 尽管澳大利亚统计局（ABS）今年年初发布的 数据显示（按澳大利亚联邦国库的原话）：中国 仍是对澳外国直接投资总量当中一个相对较小的 来源国。中国在澳开展的直接投资总额要逊于美 国、英国和日本在澳大利亚开展的直接投资。实 际上，中国的投资总额仅占到在澳全部外国直接 投资的4.4%。 不过，与中国投资相关的讨论仍让一些澳大利 亚人大为光火。实际上，许多澳大利亚人对于中 国直接投资水平的关注似乎已导致了Kidman & Co屡次推后向大康澳洲公司出售其名下土地， 而后者的最大股东是一家名为上海鹏欣的中国实 体。上海鹏欣之前的收购申请就曾因为Kidman 所持土地当中有一块靠近澳大利亚乌默拉武器试 验场而被否决。即便这家中国企业同意从这项交 易当中剔除与国防设施相邻的Anna Creek敏感 地块，这项交易依旧在四月份被迫暂停，正好是 在总理马尔科姆·特恩布尔举行联邦大选之前。 大选现在虽然结束了，交易的决定还悬而未决。 这个做法似乎有些愚蠢，难怪鹏欣的首席投资

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TOTAL STOCK OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BY COUNTRY 外商直接投资总存量

Source: ABS

$billion 亿美元 300 OTHER 其他国家 UNITED STATES 美国 250

UNITED KINGDOM 英国 JAPAN 日本 CHINA 中国

200

150

100

50

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This seems silly. Not surprisingly, Pengxin’s chief investment officer compared Australian politics to the Netflix series House of Cards.

IT’S ALL ABOUT PERCEPTION

If the concern is the level of Chinese investment in major projects in Australia, figures produced by Australia’s Treasury show that Chinese ownership share of major projects is minuscule, at 3% of the total. In fact the US and UK are the largest investors in major projects, at 26% and 27% respectively. That’s right; over half of the ownership share of major projects is held by just two countries – the US and UK. So what’s spooking the Australian government about making a decision on the sale of the Kidman properties to a Chinese bidder? One clear factor is concern held particularly by Australians in regional areas of the country about the sale of the nation’s agricultural assets to foreign investors. Of course, they are not only concerned about Chinese investment in the sector. For example, in November 2013 the then Treasurer Joe Hockey blocked the sale of GrainCorp to the US agribusiness company Archer Daniels

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Midland (ADM). At the time, Hockey said he was blocking the deal in the national interest because he felt it was “not the right time for a 100% foreign acquisition of this key Australian business.” He said another factor was the high level of community concern the sale was attracting.

It would appear that both ADM and Shanghai Pengxin have underestimated the sway of the broader Australian community, and of the National Party in particular, over the Federal Coalition Government when it comes to decisions on foreign investment in Australia’s agriculture sector.

But China still seems to come in for particular attention when it comes to investment in Australia, including in other sectors. The level of Chinese investment in Australian real estate largely drives this. It has resulted in a tightening of federal government regulations around foreign investment in residential property and the introduction of a new tax requiring those designated as foreign residents to pay 10% withholding tax on properties valued at more than AUD2 million. Additionally, the NSW Government requires proof of residency and citizenship 商道

Chinese direct investment in Australia is dwarfed by the direct investment of the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. 官表示澳大利亚的政治圈就像是Netflix出品的 《纸牌屋》连续剧。 一切皆关乎看法 如果大家的关注点是中国在澳大利亚重点项目 当中的投资情况，那么澳大利亚国库所发布的数 据清清楚楚地显示中国在这些重点项目当中的持 股比例微乎其微，仅占到3%。事实上，美国和 英国才是澳大利亚一系列重点项目的最大投资 国，所占比重分别达到26%以及27%。您没有看 错！澳大利亚各大重点项目超过一半的股权由英 美两国一手掌控。 那么，到底是什么让澳大利亚政府如此紧张， 不敢就中国竞标人对Kidman土地的收购案做出

3%

Australia’s Treasury show that Chinese ownership share of major projects in Australia is minuscule, at 3% of the total. 澳大利亚国库所发布 的数据清清楚楚地显 示中国在这些重点项 目当中的持股比例微 乎其微，仅占到3%。

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OWNERSHIP SHARE OF MAJOR PROJECTS (INVESTMENT COSTS) 各国对重点项目所占的股权（投资成本）

Note: Treasury

12% Other 其他

2% Korea 韩国

26% US 美国

3% China 中国 5% France 法国

13% Australia 澳大利亚

27% UK 英国 11% Japan 日本

Chinese investors should demonstrate they have the best interests of Australia at heart. for property purchases in Sydney, while the Victorian Government applies 7% higher stamp duty rates and a 1.5% land tax surcharge to foreign buyers. The NSW Treasurer, Ms Gladys Berejiklian, is now also considering a land tax surcharge on foreign buyers of residential property.

Although these measures apply equally to all foreign investors in real estate, they appear to be targeted at Chinese investors.

They have only been introduced since 2014, after Chinese investment in Australian real estate spiked. Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) figures show that Chinese investment in the property sector is by far the largest. At AUD24.3 billion in 2014-15, Chinese investment was more than triple that from the US and six times that from Singapore.

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A CALL TO ACTION FOR CHINESE INVESTORS

The challenge then for Chinese investors in Australia is how to improve the perceptions prevalent in the general community. One clear initiative Chinese investors should take is to engage more with local communities around an acquisition target. Xenophobia is about fear of the unknown. Chinese corporations looking to invest in Australia should therefore engage more with local communities and the broader Australian community to demonstrate that they are not a threat to the wellbeing of Australians; rather, they need to demonstrate they will contribute to the wellbeing of Australians.

For example, many Australians fear that Chinese companies are investing 商道

决断呢？其中一项明确的因素在于全国各地的澳 大利亚人对于将本国农业资产出售给外国投资者 所表现出来的极大关注。当然，他们也不仅仅只 关注中国对这个产业的投资。例如，2013年11 月，时任财政部长的乔·霍基否决了美国农业公 司阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰（ADM）对GrainCorp的 收购案，并表示他是出于国家利益而做出这项决 定，因为他觉得“眼下不是让外国企业全资收购 这家重要澳大利亚企业的合适时机”。他提到的 另一项理由是这笔交易吸引了太多的社会关注。 看来，ADM和上海鹏欣都低估了澳大利亚广 大民众——尤其是国家党——在联邦联盟党政府 审议澳大利亚农业部门外国投资之时对其所产生 的影响力。 但是在对澳投资方面，中国还是受到了特别的 关注，包括其它产业亦是如此。这主要归咎于中 国人在澳大利亚开展的房地产投资，因其导致了 联邦政府不断收紧与住宅领域外国投资相关的法 规，并推出了一项新的税种，即外国居民需要为 价值超过200万澳元的不动产支付10%的预提 税。此外，新南威尔士州政府还要求买家在悉尼 购置不动产之时提供定居和公民籍证明，而维多 利亚州政府更对外国买家征收高达7%的印花税 以及1.5%的土地税。新南威尔士州财长Gladys Berejiklian女士当前亦在考虑对购买住宅的外国 买家征收更高的土地税。 虽然这些举措适用于所有购置不动产的外国投 资者，但它们的矛头似乎都指向了中国投资者。 这些举措都是在中国人在澳不动产投资如火如荼 之际推出的。外国投资审查委员会（FIRB）的数 据显示到目前为止中国是澳大利亚不动产的最大 投资者。2014-2015年期间，中国在澳不动产投 资总额达到243亿澳元，是美国的三倍、新加坡 的六倍。 中国投资者的应对之策 中国投资者在澳大利亚所面对的一项挑战是如 何改善广大民众对于他们所持的种种看法。中国 投资者所应采取的一项明确策略就是围绕某个收 购目标与当地社区开展更多互动。排外的本质在 于对未知的恐惧。因此，那些有意投资澳大利亚 的中国企业应当与当地社区以及澳大利亚民众进 行更多的互动，证明它们不会给澳大利亚人的幸 福生活带来任何威胁，相反中国企业还将帮助提 升澳大利亚人的幸福生活。 例如，许多澳大利亚人担心中国企业正在大力 投资于澳大利亚农业部门以保障中国市场上的产 品供应，而付出代价的却将是澳大利亚人。如果 进行收购的中国企业能够证明它们的投资活动系 受到商业战略的推动而非受到中国地缘政治利益 的驱动，那么澳大利亚人的绝大部分顾虑都将烟 消云散。中国企业投资者可以成立一个由澳大利 亚知名商界领袖以及其它知名人士组成的本地委 员会或顾问团，由其负责向澳大利亚人解释中国

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heavily in Australian agriculture in order to secure product for Chinese markets at the expense of Australians. If the Chinese corporations making these purchases demonstrate that their investments are driven by business strategies rather than by Chinese geopolitical interests, much of the concern held by Australians would be assuaged. Chinese corporate investors could do this by appointing a local board or advisory panel comprised of well-known Australian business leaders and other prominent identities. They should also explain to Australians what they would be bringing in terms of investment, technology and management skills, and the resulting job creation in the local economy.

Further, Chinese investors should commence earnest discussions with stakeholders in Australia about corporate social responsibility and sustainability to further demonstrate they have the best interests of Australia at heart.

Another factor affecting Chinese investment in Australia is the misperception that Chinese companies, even privately owned companies, are state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or extensions of the Chinese government. For example, Huawei was affected by this negative perception during its early years in the Australian market, and this view led to its exclusion from bidding in the Federal Government’s tender to build

A$24 billion

At AUD24.3 billion in 2014-15, Chinese investment was more than triple that from the US and six times that from Singapore.

2014-2015年期间，中国在澳不动产投 资总额达到243亿澳元，是美国的三 倍、新加坡的六倍。

the National Broadband Network (NBN), the country’s high-speed communications infrastructure system. Importantly the company learned from that and similar experiences in other markets. Consequently Huawei established a “Cyber Security Evaluation Centre” in the UK to help assure private and public sector customers there that its equipment cannot be exploited by cybercriminals or for espionage. It has fared better in Britain as a result.

Added to this is the concern that Australian companies are not afforded the same access to the Chinese economy that Chinese companies enjoy here.

In small talk Federal and State politicians often ask potential Chinese investors for their views on this matter . Unsophisticated responses to these questions could undo much of the other work a corporation has done to pave the way for its investment deal. That’s why many Western companies prepare thoroughly for informal as well as formal meetings with politicians and government officials. Chinese companies would be well advised to be similarly prepared, even for the seemingly trivial and unrelated questions that could arise in these schmooze sessions.

While much of this is easer said than done, it is necessary for Chinese investors to map stakeholders and their interests in order to genuinely engage with them.

Interestingly, the challenge facing Chinese investors in Australia (and other foreign markets) is no different to the challenge that confronted Western companies when they started their investments in China 20 or 30 years ago. Just as Western companies had to communicate what they were bringing to China, Chinese companies now need to let Australians know what benefits they are bringing to this market. Failing to do so could hamper Chinese investments, causing more approval delays and even rejections by Australian authorities.

While a halt to Chinese direct investment is in nobody’s interest, the politics of Western democratic nations are not about real issues so much as realpolitik considerations. The outcome of the recent Federal election means politics will continue to impact business.

That is the house of cards Chinese corporate investors must work within. 商道

企业可以为澳大利亚带来什么（投资、技术和管 理技能），以及为当地经济所创造的就业机会。 此外，中国投资者还应开始与澳大利亚的利益 相关方认真讨论企业社会责任以及可持续发展问 题，以进一步证明他们自始至终都将澳大利亚的 最大利益挂在心头。 另一项影响中国在澳投资的因素是：在澳大利 亚有种误解，中国公司——即便是私营公司—— 都是国有企业或中国政府的下属实体。例如，华 为早些年在澳大利亚市场上受到了这种成见的影 响，导致其无法参加联邦政府全国宽带网络 （NBN）项目的竞标。该项目旨在打造澳大利亚 的高速通讯基础设施体系。重要的是，华为通过 其在澳大利亚以及其它国家的类似遭遇中汲取了 教训，并在英国成立了一个“网络安全评估中 心”，籍此向私人和政府客户确保其设备不会被 网络罪犯所利用或用于开展间谍活动（包括中国 政府）。通过此举，华为在英国的业务进展 顺利。 此外，澳大利亚人还担心澳大利亚企业在中国 无法获得与中国企业在澳大利亚所享受的同等 待遇。 联邦和各州政治人物频频在各种会晤中询问潜 在中国投资者对于此事的看法——而潜在投资者 也应当在他们的回答中传递出某些明确的信号。 耸肩、腆笑以及“这是中国政府的事”等回应都 于事无补。实际上，一位政治人物对于这些问题 给出的一个欠缺考虑的回应很有可能毁掉中国企 业为了给投资交易铺平道路而所付出的绝大部分 努力。 在闲谈期间，联邦和各州的政治人物通常会询 问潜在中国投资者对于此事的看法。对于这些问 题所给出的有欠考虑的回应很有可能毁掉企业为 给投资交易铺平道路所付出的绝大部分努力。这 就是为什么许多西方企业在与政治人物及政府官 员进行的非正式和正式会晤期间都会做好万全准 备。中国企业最好也要做好类似的充足准备，哪 怕是对于那些在闲谈期间可能冒出的、看上去无 关紧要的小问题。 有道是说的比做得容易。中国投资者有必要理 清各个利益相关方及其利益所在，以便真正地与 之开展互动。有意思的是，中国投资者当前在澳 大利亚（以及在其它外国市场）所面对的挑战与 西方企业20-30年前在中国投资所面对的挑战如 出一辙。正如西方企业必须解释它们将给中国带 去什么一样，中国企业如今亦需要让澳大利亚人 知道它们将给这块市场带来哪些好处。如若不 然，中国的投资将会面临重重障碍，导致更多的 审批延误，甚至是被澳大利亚主管部门拒之 门外。 虽然中国直接投资被叫停并不符合任何一方的 利益，但西方民主国家的政治权术常是基于现实 的政治考虑，而非完全动真格解决实际问题。这 也正是中国企业投资者所需直面的“纸牌屋”。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 4 5

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OPINION

快谈

外国投资：澳大利亚真正需要什么？

FOREIGN INVESTMENT – WHAT DOES AUSTRALIA REALLY WANT? Investors, including foreign investors, seek certainty. So the mixed messages coming from Canberra regarding Australia’s attitude to foreign investment must be a source of some angst. Which Australia will foreign investors get: the one that entered into an historic and liberalising free trade agreement with China or the one that is blocking foreign investment for reasons that seem political? Ultimately, Canberra needs to make its position on foreign investment clear so that China and other countries understand the parameters when assessing their opportunities.

OPEN FOR BUSINESS?

Following historic free trade agreements with three North Asian powerhouses (Japan, Korea

and China) in 2014 and 2015, Australia was considered ‘open for business’. These were FTAs that were said to go beyond mere tariff reductions to liberalise all areas of trade, including services and investments. They recognised that trade in goods was no longer the dominant feature of modern global economic relationships. And if the North Asia FTAs were to increase the flow of foreign funds into Australia, they would also increase both exports and the level of foreign investment.

This suited Australia well, given that it is a country built on foreign investment. But to capitalise on food demand from the emerging Asian middle class, someone was going to have to develop the Australian top end. Such long-term investment is rarely popular in

by Russell Wiese

包

括外国投资者在内的所有投资者都需要 确定性。因此，堪培拉所发出的、关于 澳大利亚对外国投资所持态度的不同信号引发 了种种顾虑。外国投资者面对的，哪一张面孔 才是真正的澳大利亚：与中国签署了一项历史 性自由贸易协定的澳大利亚，还是出于某些政 治原因而百般阻挠外国投资的澳大利亚？无论 如何，堪培拉均需对外国投资者清晰表明它的 立场，从而使中国和其它国家在评估其投资机 遇之时能够理清相关问题。 商业开放之地？ 在2014年及2015年与三个北亚强国（日 本、韩国和中国）签署了历史性的自由贸易协 定之后，澳大利亚一度被视为一个“商业开放 之地”。这三份自由贸易协定据称不仅仅是关 于降低关税以推动所有贸易领域的自由化，更

REAL ESTATE APPLICATIONS DECIDED 2009-10 TO 2014-15 (NUMBER OF PROPOSALS)

Source: Foreign Investment Review Board, Annual Report 2014/15

2009-10到2014-15年审批的房地产申请（议案的数量） Note: Real estate includes number of proposals decided for commercial and residential real estate.

REAL ESTATE 房地产

NUMBER 数量 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

2009-10

48 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

商道

2013-14

2014-15

OPINION

快谈

Australia, where the focus is on this year’s dividend or the growth percentage of a superannuation fund.

RULES OF THE GAME

In this environment, how could there be headlines detailing the rejection of foreign investment in Australia? The devil lies in the detail.

Foreign investment in Australia remains highly regulated. In fact, regulation of agricultural land and agribusiness became more stringent at the time of implementation of the China FTA. Australian Government approval depends on the extent to which foreign investment requirements are met, taking into account the following factors: • The type of investment – is it a business or land acquisition; • The areas of investment – areas such as defence, agriculture, media and transport are more sensitive; • The investor – there are different regulations for state and private investors; and • The terms of any applicable free trade agreement.

For Chinese investors, following the implementation of the FTA, the following

investments will require approval from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB): • Any investment by the Chinese Government or a state-owned enterprise; • Any domestic property purchase; • Agribusiness investments over AUD55 million; • Private investments over AUD1.1 billion; • Investments in a sensitive industry over AUD252 million; • Agricultural land over AUD15 million.

With the exception of domestic property, most private investment in Australia will not require approval as it will not exceed the approval thresholds. It is understood that further deregulation of Chinese investment in Australia will be on the agenda when the terms of the FTA are revisited in the future.

THE KIDMAN DECISION

However, it is the exception which captures the headline, and this can cause uncertainty amongst foreign investors. In April this year, Australia’s Treasurer Scott Morrison announced that he had made a preliminary decision to oppose the sale of Australia’s single largest private landholding to Chinese investors. The rejected deal was 商道

Foreign investment in Australia remains highly regulated. 是认识到商品贸易不再是现代全球经济关系当 中的主导因素。如果这些自由贸易协定可以促 进更多外国资金流入澳大利亚，那么它们亦将 推动更多出口以及外国投资。 这个远景与澳大利亚十分契合，因为澳大利 亚是一个建立在外国投资之上的国度。但是， 欲将亚洲新兴中产阶段的食品需求转化为现金 收入，我们需开发更多澳大利亚的高端产品。 这种长期投资在澳大利亚较为鲜见；相反，澳 大利亚投资者似乎更关注本年度的股息，或一 份养老基金的增长率。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 4 9

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OPINION

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The review process should reflect the policy, and the outcome should be the application of that policy.

the AUD370 million bid for the S. Kidman & Co cattle empire – a transaction that would cover approximately 1% of Australia’s total land area over ten properties. The land size is the equivalent of multiple European countries, but much of it is unproductive desert.

The transaction was originally refused by the Australian Government in 2015 on the basis of national security concerns. One of the properties was in close proximity to a weapons testing area. However, the Government’s bluff was called by Kidman and the deal was restructured to exclude the land causing security concerns.

A preliminary assessment of the restructured deal was released in April, with reasons for rejection cited as the size of the landholding, potential exclusion of Australian investors and the need to provide 50 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

the Australian public with confidence in the foreign investment review process.

REASONS FOR REJECTION

There is no denying that the Kidman deal involved a massive landholding – globally there would be few comparable offerings. However, the asking price of AUD370 million gives a true indication of the size of the deal. This is the sale of land that not too many investors want. Every year, the sale of land of much greater value to foreign investors is approved by way of multiple smaller transactions involving urban land (approximately AUD100 billion). While size is an easy factor to raise, it seems more of an excuse than a reason.

Even more baffling is the decision to reject foreign investment on the basis of maintaining public confidence in the foreign investment 商道

游戏规则 这种背景之下，为何各种关于澳大利亚拒绝 外国投资的报道仍甚嚣尘上呢？其实细节处方 见乾坤。 澳大利亚的外国投资依然受到严格管控。事 实上，在《中澳自由贸易协定》实施之后，澳 大利亚还加大了对农业用地和农业经营的监管 力度。 在审批过程中，澳大利亚政府是否放行取决 于外国投资满足相关要求的情况，并将以下因 素考虑在内： • 投资类型：是属于企业收购还是土地收购； • 投资领域：比如对国防、农业、媒体和运输 等领域的投资均属于较敏感的投资； • 投资者：国有投资者与私人投资者适用不同 的规则；以及 • 任何适用的自由贸易协定中的条款。 对于中国投资者而言，在《中澳自由贸易协 定》实施之后，以下投资将需要获得澳大利亚 外国投资审查委员会（FIRB）的审批： • 中国政府或一家国有企业开展的任何投资； • 对任何国内地产的收购； • 超过5500万澳元的农业投资； • 超过11亿澳元的私人投资； • 在一个敏感行业内超过2.52亿澳元的投资； • 超过1500万澳元的农业用地收购； 除了国内地产之外，在澳大利亚开展的绝大 部分私人投资都不需要审批，因为这些投资基

OPINION

快谈

NON-REAL ESTATE APPLICATIONS DECIDED 2009-10 TO 2014-15 (NUMBER OF PROPOSALS) 2009-10到2014-15年房地产以外受理的申请（议案的数量）

Source: Foreign Investment Review Board, Annual Report 2014/15

REAL ESTATE 房地产

NUMBER 数量 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2009-10

2010-11

A$5.3 billion

There were 77 approvals in the agricultural industry totalling AUD5.3 billion. A third of the total approvals by value involved Chinese buyers (the largest of any country by far). 有77项获得批准的交易与农业相关，所涉总 金额高达53亿澳元。从金额来看，排名前三 分之一的交易均与中国买家相关（中国是目 前为止最大的买家）。

review process. The role of Government is to explain its decisions and in that way, provide transparency and a rationale that promotes public confidence. Rejecting a transaction to promote confidence in the review process suggests that review process is not important, only the outcome. The review process should reflect the policy, and the outcome should

2011-12

2012-13

be the application of that policy. If the Government believes in its policy, it should show leadership by explaining the benefits of that policy, even when the headlines may be easy fodder for tabloid journalists.

An additional reason given for rejecting the transaction was concern that the large land size was simply too massive to allow any Australian investors the chance to make a competitive bid. This is factually incorrect.

There are a number of investment funds and companies that could have exceeded the Chinese bid. The point is that they elected not to. The Kidman properties are not prime land.

They require development and are long-term investments – and for various reasons, Australian investors simply do not prioritise long-term agricultural investments.

Ironically, if the size of the Kidman offering made it unattractive to Australian investors then this is the very reason to encourage foreign investment. It should not be used as an excuse to deny foreign investment.

WHAT ABOUT THE AUD200 BILLION OF APPROVED FOREIGN INVESTMENT? So is the Government’s position on the Kidman transaction the exception to the rule, or does it represent a toughening stance on 商道

2013-14

2014-15

本上都达不到审批门槛。我们相信：在未来重 新评审自由贸易协定中的条款之时，对中国在 澳投资的监管还将进一步放宽。 Kidman收购案的决定 但是，新闻报道历来爱对这些例外情况大书 特书，导致不确定情绪在外国投资者当中蔓 延。今年四月，澳大利亚财政部长Scott Morrison宣布他已初步决定反对将澳大利亚最 大的一批私人土地出售给中国投资者。被否决 的交易是与S. Kidman & Co这家肉牛巨头相关 的一宗3.7亿澳元的并购案，所涉其中的逾10 处地块约占澳大利亚国土面积的1%，与多个 欧洲国家的国土面积总和不相上下，但绝大部 分均为不毛之地。 这笔交易曾于2015年被澳大利亚政府以国家 安全为由否决，因为其中一块土地与武器试验 区毗邻。但是，Kidman声称政府虚张声势， 并对这项交易进行重新调整，将可能引起安全 顾虑的土地排除在外。 对调整后交易所开展的初步评估结果已于四 月份公布，其中列出了一系列的否决理由： 包括土地面积过大、可能将澳大利亚投资者挡 在门外，以及保障外国投资审查程序的公信力 等等。 否决理由 无可否认的是，Kidman收购案确实涉及大 片土地——即使放眼全球亦鲜有几宗交易可以 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 51

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TOTAL APPROVALS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN 2014-15 (VALUE OF PROPOSED INVESTMENT) 2014-15年各行业获得批准的总量（所涉投资价值）

Source: Foreign Investment Review Board, Annual Report 2014/15 Note: Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

2.7%

3.5%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Finance & Insurance

农业、林业和渔业

金融与保险

10.0%

18.6%

Manufacturing

Commercial real estate

制造

商业房地产

31.2%

13.7%

Residential real estate

Mineral exploration & development

住宅房地产

矿产勘查与开发

0.4%

19.9%

Tourism 旅游

In 2014-15, 99% of applications were approved within 30 days. foreign investment that should be front of mind for Chinese investors? It is important to appreciate that in 2014-15, 39,000 applications for approval were considered and 38,000 were approved, with 99% approved within 30 days.

The value of those approvals was nearly AUD200 billion.

Of interest here, there were 77 approvals in the agricultural industry totalling AUD5.3 billion. A third of the total approvals by value involved Chinese buyers (the largest of any country by far). These figures reveal that the Kidman decision does not represent the norm. Rather, it represents a decision by a government regarding a very high-profile 52 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Services 服务 land offering made two months from an election. Anyone doubting whether free trade is currently seen as political poison need only look at the protectionist language colouring the US electoral campaign.

Unfortunately, when domestic policies fail to ignite economies, blame often turns to cheap foreign goods, foreign labour or foreign investment.

THE FUTURE – GUIDANCE NEEDED TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE

People involved in Australian inbound investment over the medium term would know that for over 90% of investors, Australia is very predictable. Approval will often be required, but it will almost always be given, and given quickly. However, for others the Kidman headline is all they now know about Australia’s attitude to foreign investment.

Investors need to ignore both populist media headlines and decisions that are clearly political. While political decision-making is a relevant sovereign risk, weighing up that risk needs to take into account the AUD200 billion of foreign investment that was approved. At the same time, if Australia is sending mixed messages on whether it is open for business, clear guidelines on when transactions will be rejected are required. Leaving aside sensitive industries (defence and the like), what are the factors that will mean a particular investment is not in the national interest?

If clear guidance is given and then 商道

与之匹敌。3.7亿澳元的卖价亦真切体现了这 项交易的规模；其所出售的是大部分投资者都 不会有兴趣的土地。每年都有价值远高于它的 土地被卖给外国投资者，并以众多小额交易的 形式通过了审批，其中多涉及城市地块（约 1000亿澳元）。虽然所谓土地面积过大是个好 用的说辞，但似乎更像个牵强的借口，而非真 正的理由。 更让人困惑的理由是为了维护外国投资审查 程序的公信力而拒绝外国投资。政府的职责应 当是解释其所做出的决定，并籍此来确保透明 性以及提高公信力。为了提高审查程序的公信 力而拒绝投资的作法表明这套审查程序无足轻 重，唯有结果才是最重要的。审查程序应当是 政策的体现，而结果应当是政策的应用。如果 政府对这项政策有信心，那么政府应当通过对 这项政策的解释来展示其领导能力，哪怕小报 记者可能会借机制造各种危言耸听的标题。 否决这项交易的另一个理由是担心土地面积 太大，导致澳大利亚投资者无法提供具有竞争 力的出价。这个理由实际上也不能成立。澳大 利亚一些投资基金和企业完全有能力提供超出 中国投资者的出价，但问题在于它们选择不参 加竞标。Kidman所持有的土地并非优质地块。 这些地块需要进行开发以及长期的投资——并 且出于种种原因，澳大利亚投资者根本就没打 算将长期农业投资列为优先考虑。 令人啼笑皆非的是，如果Kidman由于所出 售的土地面积过大无法吸引澳大利亚投资者的 关注，那么这恰恰应成为政府鼓励外国投资的 理由，而不是政府拒绝外国投资的借口。 2000亿澳元的外资获批又当何论？ 那么，政府对于Kidman这项交易的态度是

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OPINION

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APPROVALS BY COUNTRY OF INVESTOR BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN 2014-15

Source: Foreign Investment Review Board, Annual Report 2014/15

2014-15年各国不同行业获得批准的数量

NUMBER OF AGRICULTURE, FINANCIAL MANUFACAPPROVALS FORESTRY AND & TURING (F) FISHING 农业 INSURANCE 制造业

SERVICES

TOURISM

TOTAL

旅游业

总数

审批数量

林业和渔业

金融及保险

MINERAL REAL EXPLORATION & ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 房地产

1 CHINA 中国

25,431

$2,494m

$1,730m

$5,317m

$9,845m

$24,349m

$2,822m

-

$46,562m

2 US 美国

412

$1,005m

$1,870m

$4,249m

$3,797m

$7,103m

$3,333m

-

$25,093m

3 SINGAPORE 新加坡

1,097

$619m

$24m

$1,796m

-

$3,850m

$6,965m

$348m

$9,974m

4 JAPAN 日本

152

-

$17m

$135m

$766m

$744m

$3,260m

-

$8,658m

5 CANADA 加拿大

309

$596m

$203m

$142m

$2,110m

$1,577m

$2,822m

-

$7,888m

6 UK 英国

1,588

$175m

-

$55m

$390m

$2,063m

$3,842m

-

$6,528m

7 MALAYSIA

2,236

-

$500m

$676m

$113m

$3,430m

$415m

-

$5,137m

8 THAILAND

80

-

$121m

$60m

$612m

$911m

$1,734m

-

$3,437m

9 SOUTH KOREA 南韩

224

-

-

$477m

-

$2,528m

-

-

$3,011m

10 HONG KONG

1,292

-

-

$677m

$91m

$1,678m

-

$260m

$2,706m

# COUNTRY

国家及排名

马来西亚

泰国

香港

99%

In 2014-15, 39,000 applications for approval were considered and 38,000 were approved, with 99% approved within 30 days.

2014-2015年期间，澳大 利亚政府受理了39,000份 申请，其中38,000份获得 了批准，99%的申请均在 30天时间内获得通过。

consistently applied, foreign investors will be able to view Australia as a country where not only a very large number of investments are approved, but also where an investor can predict when an investment is likely to be rejected. This will allow Australia to assert its sovereignty regarding who purchases Australian land and businesses, while at the same time being seen as a very stable environment for much-needed foreign investment.

矿产勘查与开发

属特例，还是代表了政府对于源自中国投资者 的外国投资日益强硬的姿态呢？2014-2015年 期间，澳大利亚政府受理了39,000份申请，其 中38,000份获得了批准，99%的申请均在30天 时间内获得通过。这些获批申请所涉总金额高 达2000亿澳元。 在这当中，有77项获得批准的交易与农业相 关，所涉总金额高达53亿澳元。从金额来看， 排名前三分之一的交易均与中国买家相关（中 国是目前为止最大的买家）。 这些数据显示政府对Kidman交易所做出的 决定并不能代表一种常态。相反，它仅仅代表 了政府在选举前两个月对于超大面积土地出售 案所做出的一项决定。任何质疑自由贸易当前 是否被视为一剂政治毒药的人士只需参考一下 那些让美国大选“大放异彩”的贸易保护主义 言论。令人遗憾的是，当国内政策无法助力经 济腾飞之时，各种廉价的外国商品、外国工人 或者外国投资往往都会成为众矢之的。 未来之道——指导性政策明晰方能重振信心 任何切身参与澳大利亚国内中长期投资的人 士都知道：对于90%以上的投资者而言，澳大 利亚是一个可预测性较强的国家。虽然有审批 要求司空见惯，但投资者一般可以很快地拿到 商道

服务

批文。但是，对于其它人而言，与Kidman相 关的报道是他们对于澳大利亚（对外国投资） 所持态度的全部了解。 投资者需要忽略那些民粹主义的媒体报道以 及那些有明显政治倾向的决定。虽然政治性决 策亦属于一项与投资相关的主权风险，但在衡 量这项风险之时我们亦需将2000亿澳元的已获 批的外国投资纳入考虑范畴。与此同时，如果 澳大利亚发出与其商业开放相悖的信号，那么 政府需提供关于所涉交易在哪些情况下会被否 决的明确的指导方针，比如除了一些敏感行业 之外（比如国防），哪些因素会导致某项投资 与国家利益相冲突？ 如果提供了明确的指导政策并予以了贯彻始 终如一，这不仅有助于外国投资者领会澳大利 亚不仅是一个批准众多投资项目的国家，还可 预见哪些投资项目有可能被否决。据此，即便 澳大利亚对某些收购澳大利亚土地和企业的投 资者彰显了主权，其仍会是外国投资者眼中一 个极为稳定的投资国度。

Russell Wiese, partner and special counsel from national law firm Hunt & Hunt. 罗素·维泽是hunt&hunt律师事务所的合伙人。

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 53

E-COMMERCE

电子商务

By Benjamin Sun ,Think China, Managing Director 作者：本杰明·孙，国泰思 科董事总经理

中国跨境电子商务新政 ——对澳企业影响解读

NEW RULES FOR E-COMMERCE: WHAT THEY MEAN FOR YOUR BUSINESS

The exponential growth in online spending on foreign goods in China has been a windfall for foreign and Australian exporters. But is this set to change with the introduction of China’s new eCommerce policy? Be prepared but not alarmed, writes Benjamin Sun. 在中国，外国商品线上消费的指数式增长为外国和澳大利亚出口商带来了滚滚利 润。但是，随着中国推出了一项新的电子商务政策，这种局面是否还能继续保持 下去？Benjamin Sun写道：不必惊慌，但应做好准备！

54 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

E-COMMERCE

电子商务

随

W

ith increasing internet penetration and a growing middle class, China’s interest in foreign and imported goods has skyrocketed. For Chinese producers and manufacturers, the immense amount of growth in online spending within China has proven to be both a blessing and a curse. Although there are now far more channels producers can utilise to reach consumers, the growth in online spending and eCommerce has also allowed foreign brands to become far more competitive in China.

As a result, the Chinese Government is attempting to encourage Chinese consumers to spend on goods made in China through the creation of an 11.9% consumption tax. From the Government’s standpoint, this tax has the dual benefit of increasing the competitiveness of goods manufactured within China, while also stimulating the gradually slowing Chinese economy.

REGULATING THE MARKET

In April 2016, the Chinese Government announced sweeping changes to the taxation

of foreign goods purchased online by Chinese consumers. At the centre of these reforms is a new 11.9% tax on all foreign goods purchased online, including foreign goods purchased through eCommerce giants Tmall and JD.com. In addition, a cap of RMB20,000 (AUD4,200) has been placed on the quantity of foreign goods that can be purchased by any single Chinese individual in a given year, which, if exceeded, leads to increased taxation of subsequent goods purchased.

Value of foreign goods purchased by a Chinese individual

RMB 20,000 in a given year.

每位中国人在一年之内可以 购买的外国商品上限是 2万元人民币（相当于 4,200澳元）

商道

着互联网的日益普及以及中产阶段队伍的 不断壮大，中国人对国外进口商品的兴趣 也在与日俱增。对于中国生产商和制造商而言， 中国线上消费的高歌猛进让它们又爱又恨。虽然 生产商们如今拥有更多的渠道将产品卖给消费 者，但线上消费以及电子商务的风生水起亦令外 国品牌在中国变得更具竞争力。 于是乎，中国政府推出了一项11.9%的消费税， 以鼓励中国消费者选择国产商品。从政府的角度 来看，这项税收不仅可以提高国产商品的竞争 力，同时亦可为逐渐放缓的中国经济注入活力。 市场整顿 2016年4月，中国政府宣布了与中国消费者在 线购买外国商品息息相关的一系列税收改革。这 项改革举措的核心所在是对所有线上购买的外国 商品征收一项11.9%的新税，包括通过电子商务 巨头天猫和京东购买的外国商品。此外，每位中 国人在一年之内可以购买的外国商品上限是2万 元人民币（相当于4,200澳元）；如果超出此上 限，则其后续购买的商品将需要缴纳更高的 税费。 一份与入华进口商品相关的全新“正面清单” 的公布使得情况变得愈加复杂。该清单包含了八 大类别的近1200种关税细目，涉及食品饮料、 服装以及家用电器等等，其中规定了哪些商品可 以通过自贸区（FTZ）内的保税仓库进入中国。 通过自贸区向中国出口商品一直以来都是外国企 业眼中最经济、最便利的一种途径，但如今那些 所出口商品不在“正面清单”之列的澳大利亚和 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 55

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Further complicating matters will be the introduction of a new ‘positive list’ for imported goods into China. This list, encompassing almost 1,200 tariff lines over eight categories, including food and beverage, clothing and home appliances, will dictate the goods that can and cannot be brought into China through bonded warehouses in FreeTrade Zones (FTZs). Exporting goods to China via FTZs has long proven to be cheap and convenient for foreign businesses. However, Australian and New Zealand businesses exporting goods that are not on the ‘positive list’ will now need to adopt an alternative approach to exporting to China.

Despite initially stating that this tax would be introduced on April 8, 2016, the Chinese Government has since granted foreign businesses some leeway, delaying the introduction of this tax and associated reforms until 2017.

电子商务

WHO DOES THIS IMPACT?

It is unlikely that this tax will have a significant impact on the buying agent market (daigou) in Australia and New Zealand. This ‘grey market’ of third party purchasers has expanded rapidly in recent years and has become a critical distributor for a number of major Australian health supplement and dairy companies. Businesses have moved quickly to advise these agents on packaging methods that will minimise customs taxation. Theoretically, parcels sent will be subject to 15%, 30% or 60% postal tax, depending on the product.

Although in practice the majority of parcels make it through customs without having tax imposed upon them, anecdotal evidence points to Chinese customs becoming more stringent in inspecting postage.

Furthermore, it is unlikely that the RMB20,000 annual limit placed on foreign purchases will act as a deterrent, given the

新西兰企业恐怕将需要重新寻找一个新的出口渠 道了。 尽管中国政府最初宣布该项税收于2016年4月 8日起征收，但中国政府还是给了外国企业一些 缓冲余地，将该项税收以及相关改革举措延后到 2017年实施。 受影响群体 这项税收不太可能给澳大利亚和新西兰的代 购市场带来重大影响。这个由第三方买家组成 的“灰色市场”近年来发展势头异常迅猛；这些 买家更已成为澳大利亚一系列知名保健品和乳品 企业的重要分销商。企业们也纷纷为这些代购买 家出谋划策，告知如何包装方能将税费降至最 低。理论上，根据产品的不同，所有包裹将被分 别征收15%、30%或60%的行邮税。虽然绝大部 分包裹实际上都可以免税通过海关，但坊间证据 显示中国海关正在逐步收紧对包裹的审查力度。 此外，考虑到中国广大家庭“一个孩子、六个 钱包”的社会结构，每年2万元人民币的外国商 品购买上限其实也不算是个事儿。独生子女政策 导致大部分的家庭都由一个孩子、两位父母以及 四位（外）祖父母构成，因此这个唯一的孩子倍 受关爱和呵护。这种家庭结构也使得一个家庭或 线上购物者可以很容易获得多张身份证，帮助他 们轻轻松松的破解这个2万元人民币的紧箍咒。 奢侈品购买者亟需注意 这项政策不会给每年100万前往澳大利亚以及 每年40万前往新西兰旅游的中国游客带来困扰， 因为这项税收仅适用于在线购买的进口商品。但 是，在海外购买大量奢侈品的中国消费者在回国 之时可能会面临重税，因为中国已经上调了奢侈 品消费税。

15-60% The buying agent market (daigou) subjects parcels postal tax to 15%, 30% or 60%, depending on the product. 代购买家根据产品的不同，所有包 裹向买家分别征收15%、30%或60% 的行邮税。

56 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

E-COMMERCE

电子商务

At the centre of these reforms is a new 11.9% tax on all foreign goods purchased online. ‘one child, six pockets’ social structure of families in China. As a result of the one child policy, most families consist of one child, two parents and four grandparents, placing a great deal of emphasis and attention on the only child. Because of this family structure it is easy, and commonplace, for one family or online shopper to have access to several national IDs, thereby allowing them to easily circumvent the RMB20,000 limit.

LUXURY SHOPPERS TAKE NOTE

This policy should not have an impact on the more than one million Chinese travellers who visit Australia and nearly 400,000 Chinese who visit New Zealand each year, because this tax only applies to imported goods purchased online through eCommerce websites in China.

However, Chinese consumers that purchase significant quantities of luxury goods overseas may face taxation upon their return to China as a result of the increase in luxury consumption tax.

IMPACT ON BONDED WAREHOUSES For goods imported into China through a bonded warehouse, this policy will have varying degrees of impact. For goods on the ‘positive list’, imports will continue as normal, and will have an 11.9% tax levied

on them. The calculation of 11.9% is derived from the policy laid out in March, which states that goods will face a tax levy that is equal to 70% of the standard import value added tax (VAT) rate of 17% (i.e. 11.9%).

For goods that are not on the ‘positive list’, most notably health and supplement products, this new policy has effectively removed the ability of foreign businesses to export to China through bonded warehouses. Despite this setback, the good news for these corporations is that goods not on the ‘positive list’ can still be exported to China. However, these goods must be sent from outside China by a postal or courier service. Ultimately, this increases the cost of exporting goods to China, but given that mark-ups on foreign goods in China are already large and demand for foreign goods from Chinese consumers remains strong, it is unlikely that this increased cost will have a major negative impact on Australian and New Zealand exporters.

SHIPPING FROM OUTSIDE STILL OK

The impact of this policy on distributors shipping from a warehouse outside of China will be minimal. Although consumers will still be subject to the aforementioned RMB20,000 annual limit and postage tax of 15%, 30% or 60%, logistics companies have once again begun advising clients on how to pack to minimise taxation. Furthermore, both Alibaba and JD.com have been establishing foreign warehouses over the past 12 months, in a move that will eventually see most distributors shipping to these warehouses.

JD.com and Alibaba will then act as mailforwarders, sending directly from these warehouses to consumers in China.

As mentioned, the mark-up on Australian goods in China is already large, particularly within the health supplement and infant formula categories. Given this, an increase in the cost of exporting to China is ultimately unlikely to be a significant deterrent for Chinese consumers, whether it be the result of the 11.9% tax applied to goods exported through bonded warehouses, or the increased cost of posting those goods to China that are not on the positive list (around AUD2-3/kg).

Australian exporters can therefore breathe a sigh of relief as China’s new eCommerce policy is unlikely to have dire consequences on their trading. 商道

11.9%

The Chinese Government is attempting to encourage Chinese consumers to spend on goods made in China through the creation of an 11.9% consumption tax. 中国政府推出了一项 11.9%的消费税，以鼓励 中国消费者选择国产 商品。

对保税仓库的影响 对于那些通过保税仓库进入中国的商品而言， 这项政策带来了不同程度的影响。那些名列“正 面清单”的商品将照常通过保税仓库进口商品， 只不过需要缴纳一笔11.9%的税收。11.9%税率 的计算依据是中国在三月份公布的一项政策，其 中规定进口商品需要缴纳一笔相当于标准进口增 值税（17%）70%的税费，也就是11.9%。 对于那些不在“正面清单”之列的商品，尤 其是保健品，这项新政令外国企业无法再通过保 税仓库向中国出口商品。尽管如此，对于它们而 言，好消息就是“正面清单”之外的商品依然可 以出口到中国，只不过必须通过邮寄或快递形式 从境外进入中国。此举无疑将增加商品出口到中 国的成本，但考虑到中国对外国商品的加大幅加 价以及消费者对外国商品的强劲需求，这种成本 上的增加不太可能给澳大利亚和新西兰出口商带 来重大负面影响。 从境外发货依然可行 对于那些从中国境外仓库发货的分销商，这 项政策的影响微乎其微。虽然消费者依然面临着 每年2万元人民币的购物上限以及15%、30%或 60%不等的行邮税，但物流公司已同样开始向客 户建议如何包装商品以便将税费降至最低。此 外，在过去的一年里，阿里巴巴和京东一直在布 局境外仓库，最终的目的是让大部分的分销商将 商品运到这些仓库来。之后，京东和阿里巴巴将 充当着邮件代运人的角色，将商品从这些仓库直 接送到中国消费者的手中。 如上所述，中国对澳大利亚商品的加价幅度巨 大，尤其是对保健品和婴儿配制食品。有鉴于 此，对华出口成本的增加不太可能浇灭中国消费 者购买进口商品的热情——无论是那些通过保税 仓库出口中国、需缴纳11.9%新税的商品，还是 那些不在“正面清单”之列、因需邮寄到中国而 导致成本增加的商品（每公斤约2-3澳元）。 因此，由于新的电子商务政策不太可能对其 贸易业务带来可怕后果，澳大利亚出口商或可长 吁一口气 。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 57

CULTURE

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By Mukund Narayanamurti, Executive Vice President – Director 作者： 阿利斯泰尔·尼古拉斯， AsialinkBusiness的总裁

新市场呼唤新技能

NEW MARKETS, NEW SKILLS

With trade barriers falling in an increasingly global economic environment, international markets have never been more connected. To take advantage of cross-border opportunities, cross-cultural awareness, knowledge and skills have never been more important to your success. 随着贸易壁垒在一个日益全球化的经济环境下分崩离析，国际市场之间的互联 互通亦达到了前所未有的高度。为了充分把握各种跨境商机，企业必须全面认 识到跨文化意识、知识和技能对于成功的重要性。

E

conomies throughout Asia Pacific have become increasingly interconnected. Driven by surging demand from the growing middle classes, new trade agreements and falling barriers to trade, businesses and investors across the region are interlinking economies like never before.

Ensuring your employees have the right mix of cross-cultural skills has become a must for any business looking to tap into the increasing opportunities in Australia and across the Asian region. Yet many organisations still struggle to enhance and harness these capabilities in their employees, and develop them at scale.

GETTING ON THE SAME PAGE

Within Asia, emerging markets alone are expected to contribute 60% of global GDP, according to statistics released by the Asian Development Bank in March.

China’s own growth target of 6.5-7% may be the lowest in two decades. But it still represents robust economic growth, especially given the current global environment, where economies are sluggish.

And as Australia’s largest ever trade mission 58 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

to China this April demonstrated, businesses of all sizes are seeking to translate opportunities into bottom-line results. From Beijing to Brisbane and Shanghai to Sydney, organisations are pursuing growth through new ventures in sectors as diverse as healthcare, agrifood, creative services and urban planning.

Unlocking this potential, however, requires a shift in mindset, along with new skills and capabilities.

China’s economy is transitioning from a manufacturing hub to an economy driven by consumption-led growth, while Australia is emerging from the mining boom. Relationships that used to be based on bulk commodities are now increasingly focused around services and high-value agricultural goods.

By 2030, Australia’s services trade with Asia (of which China is the largest part) is set to contribute AUD163 billion to the Australian economy and one million Australian jobs, according to research by ANZ Banking Group, PwC and Asialink Business.

And unlike commodities, which can be shipped in bulk, services-based businesses require a focus on people and relationships. They require an advanced understanding of customers, 商道

亚

太地区各个经济体之间的往来正变得日 益密切。持续壮大的中产阶级队伍所催 生的大量需求、各种新签署的贸易协定以及不 断取缔的贸易壁垒...种种因素都在驱动着亚太 地区的企业和投资者积极推动各大经济体之间 的互联互通。 欲把握澳大利亚和亚洲地区所涌现出来的 各种机遇，企业的当务之急是确保其雇员拥 有适当的跨文化技能。但是，许多企业目前仍 在苦苦努力以加强和提升自身雇员在该方面的 能力。 融入对方的文化 根据亚洲开发银行今年三月份发布的统计数 据，仅仅亚洲的新兴市场就在全球GDP中占到 60%的比重。 中国为自身制订的增长目标是6.5-7%；这也 是近二十年来的最低水平。但这个增长区间依 然代表着强劲的经济增长，尤其是在当前全球 经济萎靡不振的背景之下。 今年四月份，澳大利亚派出一支有史以来规 模最大的贸易代表团造访中国；大小不一的各 类企业都在想方设法将各种机遇转化为最终成 果。从北京到布里斯班以及从上海到悉尼，各 种企业都在通过成立新公司的方式追逐着增长 的脚步，所涉及的各色领域包括医疗、农产 品、创意服务以及城市规划等等。

CULTURE

文化

It is necessary to focus on understanding cultural preferences shaping consumer choices. stakeholders and partners, and an acute awareness of cultural similarities and differences.

issues like hierarchy and ‘face’, and how to approach negotiations and build relationships with diverse stakeholders.

BUILDING UNDERSTANDING

GOOD FOR THE BOTTOM LINE

Against this backdrop, building cross-cultural capabilities has become crucial for organisations to grow profitably and maximise cross-border opportunities.

This means investing in developing a deep understanding of the Asian regions’ diverse cultures and how to navigate different business and social environments in China and elsewhere. It involves understanding how culture impacts on local business practices – from differences in communication style and use of colloquial language, to more complex

Businesses and individuals who invest in building these competencies are better able to understand their customers, form long-lasting relationships and establish new partnerships, as well as manage culturally diverse workplaces and teams.

Research has demonstrated that this is good for the bottom line. A 2012 survey by the Australian Industry Group and Asialink found a direct link between board members and business leaders’ level of understanding of Asian cultures, and business success in the 商道

但是，欲解锁这项潜力，企业需要做出思维 上的转变，并需培养新的技能和能力。 中国经济正在从制造大国向消费驱动型增长 的模式转变，而澳大利亚则依赖采矿业的兴盛 起家。两国过去基于大宗商品交易所建立的关 系如今正日益向服务业和高端农业商品的方向 转移。 根据澳新银行集团、普华永道以及Asialink Business联合开展的一项研究，预计到2030 年，澳大利亚与亚洲开展的服务贸易（其中中 国将占到最大比重）将为澳大利亚经济贡献 1630亿澳元，并在澳大利亚创造100万个就业 岗位。 与可以整批运输的各种实物商品所不同的 是，基于服务的业务需要企业专注于人与关 系。这些业务需要企业提前了解客户、利益相 关方以及合作伙伴的情况，并对文化异同具备 敏锐的认识。 深入了解 在这种背景之下，跨文化能力建设已成为企 业提升利润并最大限度地利用各种跨境商机的 重中之重。 这意味着企业需要深入认识亚洲地区的不 同文化，并了解如何顺利游走于中国以及其它 地方不同的商业和社会环境之间。企业需要了 解文化对于当地商业习惯的影响——从沟通风 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 59

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AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS LEADERS STILL HAVE RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS OF EXPERIENCE DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA, AND ASIAN LANGUAGE EXPERTISE 澳大利亚商界领袖对在中国做生意的经验较浅以及亚洲语言的能力较低

ASIA EXPERIENCE 亚洲经验

LANGUAGE ABILITY 语言能力

BOARD MEMBERS 董事会成员

0%

100%

0%

ASIA EXPERIENCE 亚洲经验

100%

LANGUAGE ABILITY 语言能力

SENIOR EXECUTIVES 高级管理人员

0% HAVE EXPERIENCE/ABILITY 有经验/能力

100%

0%

DO NOT HAVE EXPERIENCE/ABILITY 没有经验/能力

Unlike commodities, which can be shipped in bulk, services-based businesses require a focus on people and relationships. region. The higher the proportion of crossculturally competent (and ‘Asia capable’) leaders, the greater the prospects for success.

However, businesses that lacked these cross-cultural capabilities were less likely to succeed, and the survey found big gaps remained: less than half of the approximately 400 businesses surveyed had any board members with Asian experience or language ability.

BETTER UNDERSTAND CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

Fortunately, both Chinese and Australian 60 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

100%

companies are increasingly investing in building their cross-cultural knowledge, awareness and skills.

With the benefits clear, the question is no longer about ‘why?’ but ‘how?’ to build cross-cultural skills. This obviously depends on the nature of the opportunity – whether a merger or acquisition, a new business partnership, or a customer relationship.

For the latter, it is necessary to focus on understanding cultural preferences shaping consumer choices. Culture is a key driver behind consumer behaviour. Knowing how to factor these diverse cultural drivers into 商道

*National survey by Asialink and the Australia Industry Group

格和口语应用上的差异，到诸如等级和“面 子”等一些更为复杂的问题——并需掌握如何 与不同的利益相关方进行磋商并与之建立 关系。 对最终结果颇有裨益 投资于这些能力建设活动的企业和个人将可 以更深入地了解他们的客户，建立经久不衰的 关系以及新的合作关系，并可以管控好具有文 化差异的工作场所和团队。 研究表明此举对于最终结果颇有裨益。澳大 利亚工业组织以及Asialink于2012年开展的一 项调查显示：董事与高管对亚洲文化的了解水 平与企业在亚洲地区取得的商业成功之间存在 着直接的关联性。具备跨文化能力（“亚洲 通”）的高管比例越高，则企业取得成功的可 能性也就越大。 相反，缺乏这些跨文化能力的企业往往不太 可能取得成功。这项调查亦发现了以下重大缺 口：在接受调查的约400家企业当中，只有不 到一半的企业聘请了拥有亚洲经验或语言能力 的董事。 更透彻地了解消费者行为 幸运的是，越来越多的中国企业和澳大利 亚企业都开始投资于构建自身的跨文化知识、

CULTURE

文化

The question is no longer about ‘why?’ but ‘how?’ to build cross-cultural skills.

Tips for building cross-cultural awareness • Take time to understand and assess cultural differences and build personal awareness, knowledge and skills in working in culturally diverse situations • Appreciate differences in communication styles (direct vs. indirect, low vs. high context) business, sales and marketing plans can be challenging for Western businesses entering China for the first time.

When Keep Cup, an Australian business selling fashionable reusable coffee cups, launched in China, they found they had to put pre-existing cultural assumptions aside and rethink their traditional pricing structure.

The company’s standard approach to pricing – calculated on an index of the local price for a cup of coffee – was too low for the Chinese market, and this initially affected sales: lower pricing was associated with lower (and less trustworthy) quality, which was not highly valued by the target market of specialist coffee drinkers.

Once these cultural perceptions were factored into their product pricing, higher pricing led to an almost three-fold increase in sales in China in six months.

WORKING WITH DIVERSE CULTURES

It’s a similar story with mergers and acquisitions, especially in the services sector, which often lead to the need to create

认识和技能。 既然好处不言而喻，那么我们所要面对的问 题已不再是“为什么”，而是“如何”打造跨 文化技能。答案显然要取决于投资机遇的性 质——是兼并还是收购，是新的商业合作还是 客户关系。 对于后者，我们有必要专注于了解那些促 使消费者做出最终选择的文化偏好。文化是 消费者行为背后的一个关键驱动因素。对于 首次进入中国市场的西方企业而言，了解如 何将这些不同的文化驱动因素纳入各种业务、 销售和营销计划之中将是一个充满挑战的 过程。 当Keep Cup（一家销售可重复使用的时尚 咖啡杯的澳大利亚企业）进入中国之时，他们 不得不先把原先的各种文化假设搁置一旁，并 重新审视他们的传统定价结构。该企业的标准 定价——基于当地一个咖啡杯的价格指数计算 而得——对于中国市场而言实在太低了，并且 这个定价方法一开始还影响到了产品的销售业 绩：更低的定价往往意味着更差（以及不太可 靠）的质量，因此其产品不被目标市场中的专 业咖啡爱好者所青睐。 在将这些文化观念纳入产品定价策略的考虑范 畴之后，该企业开始提高产品在中国的定价，并 在短短六个月期间将销量翻了近三倍之多。

• Be ready to share information about yourself and your level of responsibility within your organisation • Be open to – and when appropriate, initiate – social invitations (eg. to dinners) as these are vital for building trusted relationships • Know how to conduct yourself appropriately in a business meeting • Familiarise yourself with differences – for example, in China, allow more time for small talk, and in Australia, be prepared to ‘get down to business’ • Be respectful of hierarchy, which plays a stronger role in Chinese business culture than in the Australian context • Familiarise yourself with local business etiquette, which is often different from culture to culture.

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FORMING LASTING PARTNERSHIPS

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Less than half of the approximately 400 businesses surveyed had any board members with Asian experience or language ability. 在接受调查的约400家企 业当中，只有不到一半的 企业聘请了拥有亚洲经验 或语言能力的董事。

high-performing cross-cultural teams and an integrated workplace culture. Frameworks and strategies need to be put in place – and training provided to managers – to avoid mistrust, miscommunication and the increased risk of conflict that can result, especially in teams that rely heavily on virtual communication.

In a number of cases, such as that of an accounting firm in Australia with Chinese shareholders, the investment partners are actively committing to building the China (and Asia) capabilities of their cross-cultural teams.

This is enabling them to deal more effectively with both internal and external stakeholders.

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When the Chinese investors behind the successful agribusiness Green Lake Pty Ltd purchased a West Australian dairy farm, they found similar adjustments were needed to navigate the local (Australian) culture.

Leveraging Australia’s ‘clean, green and organic’ image in China, Green Lake set up the Capel Farm brand and a number of stores in Zhengzhou, with plans to open up to 100 stores across China. It developed a supply chain for ‘white gold’ – infant formula – along with fresh milk, honey, wine and health food snacks, direct from Australia to China.

Differences in culture, such as business operating styles and expectations, presented some of the biggest challenges. It was necessary to think outside the mindset of Chinese business culture, with both sides needing to ‘understand and adjust’ to one another.

BUILDING THE RIGHT CULTURAL BRIDGES

As these diverse examples highlight, businesses that focus on building a crossculturally capable workforce, with deep 商道

与不同的文化和谐共处 这是一个类似于兼并与收购的过程，尤其是 在服务业，并时常导致需要打造一个优秀的跨 文化团队以及一个包容性的办公室文化。企业 需要制订各种框架和策略，并向各位经理提供 相应的培训，以避免出现信任缺失、沟通不良 以及冲突风险加大等情况，尤其是对于那些严 重依赖现代化通讯工具的团队。 在一系列的案例当中，比如一家拥有中国股 东的澳大利亚会计师事务所，投资合作伙伴积 极帮助其跨文化团队熟悉中国（以及亚洲）文 化，从而使他们可以更加高效地与内部和外部 利益相关方进行互动。 建立长久的合作关系 当知名农业综合企业Green Lake私人有限 公司背后的中国投资者收购一家位于西澳大利 亚州的奶牛场之时，他们亦发现需要做出类似 调整以适应当地（澳大利亚）的文化。 利用澳大利亚在中国所树立的“清洁、 绿色、有机”形象，GreenLake创 立了“CapelFarm”品牌，并在郑州开设 了一系列的门店，同时计划在中国成立 100家连锁店。该企业为其“白金”婴儿配 方奶粉以及鲜奶、蜂蜜、葡萄酒和健康食品 等产品开发出一条从澳大利亚直接向中国供 货的供应链。

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AUD163 billion By 2030, Australia’s services trade with Asia (of which China is the largest part) is set to contribute AUD163 billion to the Australian economy and one million Australian jobs. 预计到2030年，澳大利亚与亚洲开展的 服务贸易（其中中国将占到最大比重）将 为澳大利亚经济贡献1630亿澳元，并在 澳大利亚创造100万个就业岗位。

提升跨文化意识的技巧 insights and skills to operate effectively in different cultural settings, will have a comparative advantage over those that do not.

In addition to harnessing the region’s highly multicultural workforce, this involves building and nurturing crosscultural ‘China capabilities’ in Australian business, and ‘Australia capabilities’ in Chinese counterparts.

From knowing how to negotiate with different stakeholders, adjust behaviour and business strategies appropriately and manage culturally diverse talent, these capabilities need to be nurtured by both the individual and the wider organisation.

Luckily, an increasing number of resources, tools and strategies are available for both small and medium companies, and for large businesses that need to build their skills at scale.

Forging these cross-cultural bridges does require an investment of time and resources and a dedicated commitment. But by making this investment, both Chinese and Australian businesses can become better equipped to unlock the potential that a cross-culturally competent workforce delivers.

最大的挑战来自于文化上的差异，比如企业 经营风格以及预期等等。投资者必须跳出中国 企业文化的思维来思考问题；双方均需“相互 理解并且相互适应”。 打造合适的文化之桥 正如这些不同的案例向我们所呈现的，那些 专注于打造跨文化能力团队, 具备远见卓识和 技能并擅长在不同文化背景下开展有效经营之 的企业，往往比那些无此长处的企业具备更大 的竞争优势。 除了利用亚洲地区所提供的多文化劳动力之 外，这个过程还涉及在澳大利亚企业内打造和 培养跨文化“中国通能力”，以及在中国企业 内打造和培养“澳洲通能力”。 无论是个人还是整个企业均需培养出以下能 力：了解如何与不同的利益相关方谈判、如何 妥当调整行为和商业策略，以及如何管理好存 在文化差异的不同人才。 幸运的是，无论是对于中小型企业还是对于 那些需要从上到下培养跨文化技能的大型企 业，它们如今均可以接触到越来越多的资源、 工具和策略。 打造这些跨文化之桥的确需要企业投入时 间、资源以及专注。但唯有通过这些投入，中 国以及澳大利亚企业方可充分发掘具备跨文化 能力的员工所具备的巨大潜力。 商道

• 花时间了解并评估各种文化差异，并提 升自身在不同文化环境下工作的知识和 技能； • 接受对方在沟通风格上的差异（直接与 间接，是否注重背景知识）； • 随时愿意分享与自身以及自身在企业内 部所担职责相关的信息； • 愿意接受各种社交邀请（比如赴宴）， 并在适当之时发起类似的邀请，因为这 对于建立互信关系十分重要； • 在一场商务会议中知道如何表现得体； • 熟悉各种文化差异，比如在中国要延长 闲谈的时间，而在澳大利亚应“开门 见山”； • 尊重等级制度，因为与澳大利亚相比， 等级在中国企业文化当中扮演着更为重 要的角色； • 熟知当地的商务礼仪，因为在不同文化 中，商务礼仪也各不相同。

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by Duncan Clark, founder of the leading investment advisory firm BDA China 作者：邓肯·克拉克，博 达克咨询有限公司创始人

《阿里巴巴：马云的商业帝国》

THE HOUSE THAT JACK MA BUILT

In this excerpt from his new book The House That Jack Ma Built, Duncan Clark, former Morgan Stanley investment banker and head of investment advisory firm BDA China, gives an insider’s account of how a teacher built one of the world’s most valuable companies— rivalling Walmart and Amazon – and forever reshaped the global economy. 在其新书《阿里巴巴：马云的商业帝国》的这份摘要之中，邓肯·克拉克—— 前摩根士丹利投资银行家以及北京博达克咨询有限公司（BDA China）董事 长——从内部人士的角度介绍了老师出身的马云如何打造出阿里巴巴这个可以 匹敌沃尔玛和亚马逊的全球最具价值企业之一，以及如何永久地改变了全球的 经济格局。 WHAT’S IN A NAME

Jack decided to call his new venture Alibaba, a curious name for a Chinese company.

Jack has been asked many times why he chose an Arabic name for his company rather than something derived from his passion for Chinese martial arts or folklore. Jack was attracted, he said, by the “open sesame” imagery, since he hoped to achieve an opening for the small and medium-sized enterprises he was targeting. He was also looking for a name that travelled well, and Alibaba is a name that is easy to pronounce in many languages. He liked the name since it came at the beginning of the alphabet: “Whatever you talk about, Alibaba is always on top.”

In China, a song titled “Alibaba Is a Happy Young Man” was popular at the time, but Jack says the idea came to him for the website on a trip to San Francisco: “I was having lunch, and a waitress came. I asked her: ‘Do you know about 64 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Alibaba?’ She said, ‘Yes!’ ‘What is Alibaba?’ And she said, ‘Open Sesame.’ So I went down to the street and asked about ten to twenty people.

They all [knew] about Alibaba, Forty Thieves, and Open Sesame. I think, this is a good name.”

But there was a problem. The domain name alibaba.com was registered to a Canadian man who was asking for $4,000 to transfer it over, a transaction that involved some risk if he didn’t hold up his side of the bargain. So Jack launched the Alibaba site using alibabaonline. com and alibaba-online.com instead. Alibaba cofounder Lucy Peng recalled how the early team members had joked they were working for “AOL,” short for “Alibaba Online.”

Jack soon after decided to buy the alibaba. com domain name. Alibaba executive vice chairman Joe Tsai later recounted to me that Jack was nervous about wiring funds to the Canadian owner before he could be assured of gaining control (a problem that the escrow 商道

名字的由来 马云决定将他的新公司命名为“阿里巴巴”， 一个对于中国企业而言可谓怪异的名称。 马云好几次都被问及为什么为公司选择了一 个阿拉伯名称，而不是基于他所热爱的武侠或 民间传说来命名。据他所言，他曾被“芝麻开 门”这个意象所深深吸引，因为他希望帮助广 大中小企业打开财富的大门。他当时也在寻找 一个易于推广的名称，而“阿里巴巴”无论在 哪个语种当中都朗朗上口。他喜爱这个名称的 原因还在于它的首字母排在字母表的第一 位：“无论你怎么说，阿里巴巴总是排在最 前面。” 当时，中国有一首叫《阿里巴巴是个快乐的 青年》的歌曲脍炙人口，但马云表示他选择这 个名字的原因主要得益于他的一趟旧金山之 行：“我当时正在吃午饭，然后一个女服务员 过来了。我问她：‘你知道阿里巴巴吗？’她 说：‘是的！’我又问：‘那阿里巴巴到底是 什么？’她回答说：‘芝麻开门。’所以，我 来到大街上，问了十到二十个路人。他们都

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The three China portals in turn planned to grab a piece of a fast-growing online advertising cake, which grew to US$12 million in 1999 from only US$3 million the year before. 中国三大门户网站亦打算从 快速增长的在线广告市场中 分得一块蛋糕；这块市场的 市值已从1998年的300万 美元骤增至1999年的1200 万美元。

function of Alipay would later solve): “He didn’t have that kind of money, so was scrounging around. But Jack is a very savvy businessman, he has that innate ability to say, ‘All right, I’m gonna trust this guy.’ A lot of entrepreneurs don’t trust other people.”

Jack went ahead with the wire transfer to the Canadian, who (true to national stereotypes) proved honest, and Jack gained control of alibaba.com.

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marketing expenses and a ready supply of imagery such as the forty thieves, and 1,001 nights, and other elements he still often incorporates into his speeches.

（知道）阿里巴巴、四十大盗以及芝麻开门， 于是我确信‘阿里巴巴’一定是个好名字。” 但马云面临的一个问题是“alibaba.com” 这个域名已被一位加拿大人注册了；他向 马云索要4000美元的转让费。这项交易存 LAKESIDE GARDENS 在对方可能不守信的风险，因此马云使 Alibaba was launched in Hangzhou by Jack’s 用“alibabaonline.com”和“alibabafriends, supporters and colleagues, including online.com”两个替代域名推出了阿里巴巴 some who joined him from China Pages 网站。阿里巴巴联合创始人彭蕾回忆称最早的 and Infoshare. 团队成员们曾开玩笑地说他们是在为“AOL” Jack convened a meeting on February 21, （Alibaba Online的简称）打工。 1999, at his Lakeside Gardens (Hupan 马云很快就决定买下“alibaba.com”域 Huayuan) apartment in Hangzhou. Confident 名。阿里巴巴执行副董事长蔡崇信向我描述称 in his future success, he arranged for the 马云当时十分担心汇钱给加拿大域名所有人之 meeting to be filmed. With the team seated 后仍无法拿到域名的控制权（此类问题后来通 around him in a semicircle, some wearing 过马云推出的“支付宝”托管功能得到了解 coats to fend off the damp cold inside the chilly 决）：“他当时并没有那么多钱，所以要到处 apartment, Jack asked his converts to ponder 筹钱。但马云是一个非常有智慧的商人；他与 the question: “In the next five to ten years, 生俱来的能力告诉他：‘好吧，我要相信这个 what will Alibaba become?” Answering his own 人。’许多创业者不会像他这样信任别人。” question, he said that “our competitors are not 马云将筹到的钱汇给了加拿大人，后者十分诚 in China, but in Silicon Valley. . . . We should 信（加拿大人天性如此）地将“alibaba. position Alibaba as an international website.” com”域名转给了马云。 The reality was that Jack, late to the portal 阿里巴巴的知名度为马云节省了大量的推广 game now dominated by Sina, Sohu, and 费用；他亦常常将四十大盗、一千零一夜和其 NetEase, had to find his own niche in the 它元素纳入他的演说之中。 商道

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China internet market. The portals were trying to capture the growing number of individual users coming online, but Jack was going to stick with what he knew best: small businesses.

In contrast to the business-to-business sites in the United States that were focused on large companies, Jack decided to focus on the “shrimp”. He found inspiration from his favourite movie, Forrest Gump, in which Gump makes a fortune from fishing shrimp after a storm: “American B2B [business-to-business] sites are whales. But 85% of the fish in the sea are shrimp-sized. I don’t know anyone who makes money from whales, but I’ve seen many making money from shrimp.”

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When Jack created Alibaba in early 1999, China had only two million internet users. But this would double in six months, then double again, reaching nine million by the end of the year. By the summer of 2000 there were 17 million online.

Personal computers still cost a hefty $1,500, but prices began to fall as new market entrants like Dell set up shop in competition with homegrown companies Founder, Great Wall, and Legend (later rebranded as Lenovo). Sales of new PCs, still going mostly to businesses or government users, hit five million in 1999.

The government’s policy of “informatisation” was making the internet more affordable.

“When we charge forward, even if we lose, we still have the team.”

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湖畔花园 阿里巴巴由马云和他的朋友、支持者以及同 事在杭州共同创立；加入创业队伍的还有马云 曾经在“中国黄页”和“国富通”结识的一些 同事。 1999年2月21日，马云在他位于杭州湖畔花 园的公寓内召集了一个会议。对未来成功充满 自信的马云还安排专人对会议进行了录像。团 队成员呈半圆形围座在马云身边；一些人还穿 着大衣以抵御公寓内的潮气和寒意。马云要求 他的追随者们思考这样一个问题：“在未来五 到十年内，阿里巴巴我们将做成什么样？”他 自问自答地谈到：“我们所有的竞争对手不在 中国，而在美国的硅谷...我们把阿里巴巴定位 就把它做为国际站点。” 实际上，在新浪、搜狐和网易傲视群雄的门 户网站之争中，作为后来者的马云必须在中国 互联网市场中找到自己的一席之地。各大门户 网站都在想方设法吸引数量越来越多的网民， 但马云却将目标指向他最熟悉的群体：小企业。 与美国那些专注于大企业的B2B网站相反，马 云决定将重心放在“小虾”身上。他从《阿甘 正传》这部他最喜爱的电影中得到了灵感；阿 甘躲过风暴，依靠捕虾发了大财。“美国B2B 网站是大鲸，但大海之中有85%的鱼类与虾的 体积相当。我不认识任何通过捕鲸发财的人， 但我知道很多通过捕捞小鱼小虾挣钱的人。” 当马云在1999年之初成立阿里巴巴之时，中 国仅有200万互联网用户；但这个数字在短短 六个月内增加了一倍，之后又翻了一番，并于 当年年底之时达到900万。到了2000年夏天， 中国已拥有1700万互联网用户。 当时个人计算机的价格依然高高在上（约为 1,500美元），但随着戴尔等企业进入中国市 场并与方正、长城和联想等本土企业逐鹿中 原，个人计算机的价格开始逐步下降。大部分 的新电脑都卖给了企业或政府用户，1999年的 销量达到了500万台。 政府推出的“信息化”政策令互联网的接入 价格变得更为平易近人。当时向当地电话公司 申请互联网接入需要耗费数月时间，费用更是 高达600美元。1999年3月份，政府取消了第 二条电话线的初装费，令上网变得更加便宜， 同时亦将平均上网价格从1997年的每月70美 元降低至1999年底之时的每月9美元。 数百万受过教育的年轻人在学校或办公室上 网，其他人则在遍布全国、发展迅猛的数千家 网吧内上网。雅虎在美国的业务模式是通过风 生水起的在线广告来赚钱，而中国三大门户网 站亦打算从快速增长的在线广告市场中分得一 块蛋糕；这块市场的市值已从1998年的300万 美元骤增至1999年的1200万美元。但即便在 美国，雅虎也仍处于亏损状态；而在中国，可 支配收入不高的网民无法吸引广告主的关注。

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Getting a connection from the local phone company still took months and could cost as much as $600. But in March 1999 the government scrapped the installation fee for second phone lines and made it cheaper to surf online, too, cutting the average price from $70 per month in 1997 to only $9 by the end of 1999.

Millions of young, educated people were coming online at their colleges or workplaces, others at the thousands of internet cafés that were mushrooming across the country.

Yahoo’s business model in the United States was to make money from the growing market for online advertising. The three China portals in turn planned to grab a piece of a fastgrowing online advertising cake, which grew to US$12 million in 1999 from only US$3 million the year before. But even in the States Yahoo was losing money, and in China the bulk of internet users had little disposable income to excite advertisers. The potential revenues for the portals were way below their expenditures.

Yet in the upside-down logic of the unfolding dot-com boom, losses were not only acceptable but worn as a badge of honour: the bigger the loss, the grander a firm’s ambition. Venture capital (VC) firms were there to bridge the gap.

Before Alibaba was even out of the starting

gate, Sina, Sohu, and NetEase had started to win the backing of VCs, competing aggressively for new users and investment.

Sina was formed by the December 1998 merger of Wang Zhidong’s firm SRS with the US company Sinanet, founded by three Taiwan-born students at Stanford University.

Daniel Mao, an early investor in SRS at the Walden International Investment Group, helped broker the merger. Sina.com was launched in April 1999 and the following month raised $25 million in VC from investors, including Goldman Sachs, Walden and Japan’s SoftBank.

Sohu raised $10 million in 1998 and more funding the following year on the back of soaring traffic on its Chinese-language search engine. Founder Charles Zhang was relishing his newfound celebrity status in China, and he brought on Stanford-educated returnee Victor Koo (who later left to found Youku, China’s answer to YouTube) to beef up Sohu’s management. He also tried, unsuccessfully, to hire Jack as his COO. NetEase was the last of the three portals to raise VC funding for the simple reason that founder William Ding didn’t really need to: he could count on a steady flow of licensing revenues from the webmail software he had 商道

但是，在以互联网热潮之下的错乱逻辑来看， 这些亏损不仅可以接受，更貌似一枚荣誉勋 章：亏损越多，则企业也貌似更有追求。填补 窟窿的自然是非风投公司莫属。 在阿里巴巴还未迈出第一步之时，新浪、搜 狐和网易就已获得了各大风投公司的青睐，并 对新用户和投资展开了激烈争夺。 1998年12月，王志东名下的四通利方信息 技术有限公司与三位台湾学生在斯坦福大学创 办的华渊信息公司合并创立了新浪。来自华登 国际投资集团的茅道林（四通利方的一位早期 投资者）促成了这次兼并。新浪网于1999年4 月问世，并于次月从一系列投资者手中拿到了 2500万美元的风险投资，包括高盛、华登以及 日本软银。 搜狐于1998年拿到了1000万美元的投资； 得益于其中文搜索引擎流量的激增，搜狐于次 年筹到了更多资金。创始人张朝阳乐于享受他 在中国新获得的名人身份，并招募了毕业于斯 坦福大学的海归古永锵（他之后离开搜狐创办 了优酷网，也就是中国的YouTube）来加强搜 狐的管理团队；张朝阳曾力邀马云出任搜狐的 首席运营官，但以失败告终。 网易是三大门户网站当中最后募集风险资本 的一家，原因仅仅是因为丁磊并不需要：他依 赖其个人所开发的邮箱软件可以获得稳定的许 可收入。当他的公司于2000年上市之时，丁磊 拥有所有门户网站创始人当中最高比例的股 权——58.5%。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 69

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2 million When Jack created Alibaba in early 1999, China had only two million internet users.

当马云在1999年之初成立 阿里巴巴之时，中国仅有 200万互联网用户。

personally developed. William Ding had by far the highest equity stake of any portal founder – 58.5% – when his company went public in 2000.

Watching from the sidelines, Jack realised he would have to hustle if he was to ever catch the attention of VCs or catch up with the portal pioneers who were speeding off into the distance. For Alibaba to thrive he would have to foster a relentless work ethic, ensuring a clean break from the bureaucratic culture that he and some of his colleagues had just left behind in Beijing. Jack exhorted the group assembled in his apartment to “learn the hard-working spirit of Silicon Valley . . . If we go to work at 8am and get off work at 5pm, this is not a high-tech company, and Alibaba will never be successful.”

Jack likes to put Silicon Valley companies on a pedestal, but he also likes to rally his team by saying Alibaba could knock them off it: “Americans are strong at hardware and systems but in software and information management, Chinese brains are just as good as American. . . . I believe that one of us can be worth ten of them.”

Alibaba was formed at a time when the inflating dot-com valuations made even his loyal converts nervous about whether the bubble would soon burst. Speaking to them in his apartment, Jack sought to reassure them: “Has the internet reached its peak? Have we done enough? Is it too late for us to follow? . . .

Don’t worry. I don’t think the dream of the internet will burst. We will have to pay a very 70 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

作为旁观者的马云意识到：欲吸引风险资本 的关注或赶上那些大踏步前进的门户前辈们的 脚步，他除了拼尽全力之外别无它法。为了推 动阿里巴巴的快速成长，他必须制订一种严酷 的工作法则，确保他和一些同事们与刚在北京 挥手告别的官僚文化一刀两断。马云向围座于 他公寓之内的团队成员告诫道：“我们要学会 硅谷人的一种拼劲，如果我们是早上八点钟上 班，五点钟下班，这个不是搞高科技。这个绝 对不是我们阿里巴巴的成功。” painful price in the next three to five years. It 马云很喜欢把硅谷公司视为榜样，但他也常 is the only way we can succeed in the future.” 常大谈阿里巴巴可以打败这些公司，以此来激 To rally the troops, Jack set a goal of achieving 励他的团队：“人家美国人强就强在硬件，强 an IPO within three years. “Once we become 就强系统集成。但是玩信息玩软的，中国人脑 a listed company, what each and every one of 袋决不比他们差……我相信我们是能以一当 us will gain . . . is not this apartment, but fifty 十的。” apartments like this. We are just charging 在阿里巴巴成立之初，不断膨胀的互联网估 forward. Team spirit is very, very important. 值令他忠诚的拥趸也开始担心这个泡沫是否会 When we charge forward, even if we lose, we 很快破灭。在公寓内，马云这样安慰他们： still have the team. We still have each other “互联网是不是已经到了顶点？我们是不是已经 to support. What on earth are you afraid of?” 做到差不多？我们再跟下去的话是不是已经太 Although Jack and Cathy together were 晚了？……不要担心，我觉得Internet这个梦 the lead shareholders, Alibaba was co-founded 不会破。我们为后面的三五年所付出的代价将 by a total of eighteen people, six of whom 非常惨重；只有这样惨重的代价，才会赢得我 were women. None came from privileged 们未来取得的成功。”为了激励他的团队，马 backgrounds, prestigious universities, or 云制订了在三年之内上市的目标。“一旦成为 famous companies. This was a team of 上市公司，我们每一个人…… 所得到的不是这 “regular people”, bound together by Jack’s 套房子，而是50套这样的房子。就是往前冲， energy and his unconventional management 一直往前冲。所以团队精神非常非常重要。往 methods. To build team spirit, Jack drew on 前走的时候，失败了还有这个团队，还有一拨 his love of Jin Yong’s novels and gave each 人互相支撑着，你有什么可恐惧的？” of his Alibaba team members nicknames. 虽然马云和他的妻子张英是阿里巴巴的主要 His own nickname was Feng Qingyang. In Jin 股东，但阿里巴巴是由十八个人共同创立的， Yong’s book Swordsman, Feng is a reclusive 其中有六位是女性。没有人拥有显赫的背景、 sword and kung fu master, preparing young 毕业于知名大学或就职于著名公司。这是一个 apprentices to be heroes. As a former 由一群“普通人”组成的团队，在马云的影响 teacher, Jack identified with Feng and his 力以及非常规管理方法的作用之下聚集在一 “unpredictable yet nurturing” character. 起。为了打造团队精神，马云利用他挚爱的金 庸小说给每位阿里巴巴团队成员起了个花名。 This is an edited extract from The House that 他自己的花名是“风清扬”。在金庸小说《笑 Jack Ma Built by Duncan Clark. © 2016 by 傲江湖》之中，风清扬是一位隐居的剑术和功 Duncan Clark. All rights reserved. Published 夫宗师，也正是他将年轻的弟子们培养成为一 by arrangement with Ecco, an imprint of 代英雄。曾经当过老师的马云因此自诩是这 HarperCollins Publishers, $32.99. 位“深不可测但乐为人师”的风清扬。 商道

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H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 71

LEARNING CURVE

学习曲线

by Ashleigh Holcz, freelance journalist 作者：阿什利·赫兹，自由撰稿人

山重水复疑无路

AN UNLIKELY OPPORTUNITY Chinese president Xi Jinping ’s campaign against corruption has forced sellers of luxury items to change their target markets and come up with new, innovative ways to sell their products. 中国国家主席习近平的反腐败运动，迫使奢侈品销售商改变他 们的目标市场，并拿出新的，创新的方法来推销自己的产品。

C

hinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to implement a far-reaching anti-corruption campaign sent shockwaves through the luxury goods market.

Demand has fallen for some restaurants following restrictions on extravagant official banquets. In 2015, Chinese consumer spending on luxury goods fell by 2%, following a 1% decline in 2014.

To compensate, producers of luxury goods and alcohol have moved their business and marketing practices to appeal to a new demographic of Chinese consumers. As the practice of social gifting is overtaken by personal shopping, luxury retailers are working hard to attract a new wave of bold and informed middle-class consumers with a preference for subtly branded, limited-edition goods of high quality.

The Chinese liquor market has also adapted, by producing more affordable and fashionable products targeted at a younger demographic with a taste for light, fruity flavours and low-alcohol beverages.

72 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

中

国国家主席习近平提倡的反腐运动迫使 许多奢侈品经营者转变目标市场，并以 创新的方式来销售他们的产品。 在禁止官员参与任何宴请之后，一些饭店和 夜总会的生意一落千丈；高端酒水（比如白 酒）的销量也应声而落。2015年，中国人的奢 侈品消费支出下降了1%，2015年降幅又扩大 至2%。为此，奢侈品和酒水生产商已被迫将 业务和营销重心转向新的中国消费群体。由于 社交送礼的习惯已被个人购物所取代，奢侈品 零售商正在想方设法吸引新一波胆大心细、青

2%

In 2015, Chinese consumer spending on luxury goods fell by 2%.

2015年中国人的奢侈品 消费支出降幅扩大 至2%。

商道

睐名牌和限量版优质商品的中产阶级消费者。 中国的酒水市场也不得不推出一些更低价、 更时尚的产品，以期吸引那些偏爱果味和低酒 精含量饮料的年轻消费群体。

Luxury retailers are working hard to attract a new wave of bold and informed middle-class consumers.

LEARNING CURVE

学习曲线

茅台的故事

The Moutai Story Dating back to the Qing Dynasty and crafted in rugged Guizhou, the fiery spirit Kweichow Moutai is gaining increasing recognition abroad for its distinct flavour and aroma.

Long a popular gift for special occasions in China, President Xi’s campaign delivered a major hit, and distributors had to evolve.

They responded by slashing the price of Moutai by half to put it within reach of urban professionals, and by releasing a range of lower-shelf brands.

Joseph Lai, Portfolio Manager for Platinum Asset Management’s Platinum Asia Fund, gives insight into the future of Moutai – and why he decided to invest in the company. Platinum Asia Fund began investing in Moutai in August 2014. Currently, Moutai is one of four Chinese stocks in Platinum Asia Fund’s AUD4.37 billion investment portfolio.

Do you believe the liquor price plunge was caused by China's anti-corruption campaign?

Yes. Although Chinese incomes were rising, the government crackdown on official banquets led to an abrupt and drastic reduction in the demand for expensive wine and liquor. The resulting fall in liquor prices squeezed small players out of the

market, leaving more dominant players to take a bigger share. While everyone recognises Moutai as the premier iconic Chinese liquor brand, its overall share of the domestic market was miniscule.

At the time, the bulk of the market was fragmented, and consisted of cheap and independent liquor brands.

How is Moutai adapting its business in 2016 to ensure success in a challenging market?

To keep its edge, Moutai broadened its distribution channels to tap into different customer groups, reduced prices for its premium line, launched several low- and mid-tier products and expanded into e-commerce to increase online and overseas sales.

What does the future hold for Moutai?

Given Moutai’s heritage, I believe its reputation and presence in China’s premium liquor market will endure and continue to grow with the economy. While governmentfunded consumption is definitely down, China’s middle-class consumers have responded to lower retail prices and are actually consuming more. The net result is that the company has continued to grow in both sales and earnings. As consumers move up the quality curve, we expect demand for Moutai to continue to grow, leading to increased market share and product prices going forward.

商道

在茅台酒产自贵州，其历史可以追溯到清 朝。这种烈性白酒正以其独特的口感与酒香 赢得越来越多海外顾客的认可。 茅台一直以来都是中国各种特殊场合的馈 赠佳品；习近平的反腐运动给茅台带来了重 大打击。经销商不得不做出应对；他们将茅 台的价格降了一半，使之达到都市商人可以 负担的价位，同时亦推出了一系列的低端 品牌。 白金资产管理公司白金亚洲基金的投资组 合经理JosephLai与我们分享了他对茅台酒 未来前景的看法，以及他决定投资茅台的原 因。白金亚洲基金从2014年8月起开始投资 茅台公司。目前，茅台公司是白金亚洲基金 43.7亿澳元投资组合所持有的四支中国股票 之一。 您是否认为白酒价格下跌是中国的反腐运动 所导致？ 是的。虽然中国人的收入持续保持增长， 但政府对官员宴请所下的禁令导致了高价 葡萄酒和白酒消费需求的断崖式下降。其所 引发的白酒价格下跌已将少量企业挤出了这 块市场，从而让那些占据主导地位的品牌获 得了更大的市场份额。虽然人人都将茅台视 为国酒，但其在本土市场上所占的总体市场 份额却是微不足道。眼下中国的白酒市场已 经分崩离析，并充斥着各种廉价的独立 品牌。 茅台在2016年如何调整业务以确保在这个 充满挑战的市场中获得成功？ 为了保住其优势地位，茅台拓宽了分销渠 道以便开发不同的消费群体，下调了高端产 品的价格，推出了多种中低端产品，并进军 电子商务领域以便提高线上与海外渠道的销 售额。 茅台的未来前景如何？ 考虑到茅台的悠久历史，我认为茅台在中 国高端白酒市场的声望和地位只会有增无 减，并将随着中国经济的发展而不断壮大。 虽然公款消费显著萎缩，但中产阶段消费者 已对更低的零售价做出了积极回应，茅台的 实际销量将稳步上升。最终的结果就是茅台 公司的销售额和利润将继续保持增长。随着 消费者对品质的追求不断提高，我们预计茅 台的市场需求将节节攀升，从而推动市场份 额的扩大以及产品价格的上涨。

H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 73

QuarterlyAustralian Australian Residential Residential Quarterly Quarterly Australian Residential PropertySurvey: Survey:Q4 Q1 2016 Property Property Survey: Q42015 2015 LEGAL

法律

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey: Q4 2015

byNAB NAB Group Economics Group Economics byby NAB Group Economics

NAB’s Residential Property Index reverses its recent slide as sentiment improves in all states except WA.

NAB’s Residential Property Index falls its to its lowest level since mid-2012 ashouse house pricegrowth growthslows. slows.

NAB’s Residential Property falls lowest level since mid-2012 VIC expected to lead theIndex country fortocapital growth in the next 1-2 years,as with NSWprice lagging. Foreign buyers QLD tipped to lead country for capital gains in the next 1-2 years.

Local investors playing a smaller role QLD tipped to leadincountry for capital gains in the next 1-2 years.

Local investors less prevalent all markets except QLD where their presence continues to grow. playing a smaller role in both established property markets.

Foreign buyers also lessactive, active,except exceptininQLD. QLD. in both newnew andand established property markets.

Foreign buyers also less

Property Index

by NAB Group Economics

National housing market sentiment improved in Q1’16, with the NAB Residential Property Index rising to +6 (+1 in Q4’15). This reverses a trend of three consecutive quarterly falls, although the index is still well below its long-term average (+13).

Market sentiment improved in most states, led by NSW (up 16 to +26), but VIC NAB’s Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (it was +10 continues NAB’s to leadResidential the country (up 8 to +31) and fell is also only tracking Property Index to the +1 in Q4state (it was +10 in Q3) and is now well below its long-term average (+13). above its long-term average.

Sentiment improved in QLD average (up 4 to +11) and in in Q3) and is now well below its long-term (+13).

Sentiment weakened in most states, especially NSW and QLD. SA/NT butSentiment remains negative (up +6intomost -25). In contrast, sentiment among property weakened states, especially NSW and alsofell softer, but strongest (replacing NSW) andQLD. professionalsVIC in WA to a new Survey lowoverall (-67) and well below its long-term VICcurrently also softer, NSW) and average. the but onlystrongest state still overall tracking(replacing above its long-term survey average (-1).

PropertyIndex Index Property

currently the fell only state still tracking itsvery long-term Sentiment further in SA/NT andabove remains weak inaverage.

WA. Sentiment fell further in SA/NT and remains very weak in WA.

NAB’s Residential Property Index falls to its lowest level since mid-2012 as house price growth slows.

Outlook QLD tipped to lead country for capital gains in the next 1-2 years. Local investors playing a smaller role Outlook Outlook in both new and established property markets. Foreign buyers also less active, except in QLD. The Australian housing market got off to a better than expected start in 2016, with prices in the major Eastern capitals pushing higher, despite widely held concerns over affordability and a spike in supply (namelyhouse apartments).

At this pointwere in thescaled housing cycle, it is not clear Average price expectations back in most whether the gains over Q1 2016 are pointing to angrowth ongoing trend, states bar WA (but still negative).

Highest capital Averageorhouse price expectations scaled back in most - perhaps if it isin simply a flash the were pan the market QLD and VICinnext yearbefore with prices flat inpeak NSW statesexpected bar WA (but negative). growth triggered bystill external factors.Highest Overall,capital the fundamentals still suggest and falling in WA and SA/NT. QLD to lead for capital gains in expected in the QLDbest andofVIC year with flatbehind in NSW that thenext capital gains areprices probably us, with more 2 years’ time.

NAB has also lowered its house price forecast and falling in WA andinSA/NT. QLD to likely lead for capital gainswith in very muted growth 2016 the most scenario - albeit fortime.

2016 to 1%has (from 2.3%), withits weaker expectations for all 2 years’ also lowered mixed NAB results across capital cities. house price forecast

capitals (led by Sydney and Melbourne). Unit prices are tipped for 2016 to 1% (from 2.3%), with weaker expectations for all to fall 1.2%, with flat to falling prices in all capitals. capitals (led by Sydney and Melbourne). Unit prices are tipped to fall 1.2%, with flat to falling prices in all capitals.

Foreign Buyers The overall share of foreign buyers in Australian property markets fell to a 2½ year low in both new and established property markets in Q1’16.

Foreign buyers accounted for just 11.8% of total new property sales (14.4% in Q4) and 7.2% in established property markets (8.6% in Q4). In new property markets, foreign buyers fell to 10.7% in VIC (16.4% in Q4) - its lowest level in 2 years and significantly below Survey high levels of 32.5% in Q4’14. Foreign buyers were also less prevalent in NSW, where their market share fell to 11.1% (11.7% in Q4). This down from a Survey high At ainnational level, buyers were lessQ4’13. prevalent inforeign Q4, 21% Q1’15 and nowforeign at its lowest level since In WA, buyers accounting for 14.4% of allfor new salesdemand (15.7% (5.8% in Q3)in Q4) down of new property accounted justproperty 2.9% of total and 8.6% in 10-11% established markets (9% in Q3).

Activityinweakened At a national level, foreign buyers were less prevalent Q4,share of foreign from around in the first half of 2015.

In contrast, the in most states, except QLD, foreign buyers in new property in QLD continued to accounted grow, accounting for 14.4% of all markets new where property salesbuyers (15.7% in Q3)rising to 21.9% for 20.9% of new property sales Q3) and 8.9% in ofnew property in Q1’16 (20.9% in Q4).

The market share ofin foreign buyers and 8.6% in established markets (9%(17.7% in Q3).

Activity weakened markets hasexcept grown for three consecutive quarters and were may suggest established properties (7.6% inforeign Q3). Foreign buyers notablythat in most states, QLD, where buyers accounted they being attracted bytheir lower average prices there.

In established less are active inproperty VIC, where share total new property sales for 20.9% of new sales (17.7% inofQ3) and 8.9% of property markets, buyersinaccounted for just 7.1% of totalitdemand declined to 16.4%foreign from Q3. In established markets, fell established properties (7.6%25.2% in Q3). Foreign buyers were notably in - a 3down year low and down from 8.6% in Q4. buyers also toVIC 8.6%, from a survey high 15% innew Q3. Foreign There was lesswere change less active in VIC, where their share of total property sales less active inbuyer NSW activity (7.8% vs.in 9.4% in -Q4) andfor QLD (6.7% vs. 8.9%(13.6% in Q4),in but in foreign NSW 11.7% new property declined to 16.4% from 25.2% in Q3. in InWA established markets, it fell they increased their market share to a Survey 8.8% (7.2% in Q4).

Q3) and 9.4% in established markets (9.7% in Q3). high Overall, around

Foreign Buyers Foreign Buyers

to 8.6%, down from a survey high 15% in Q3. There was less change 53% of foreign purchases residential property were 商 道 74 | HIGH ER activity VIEW BUSIN E Sof S -Australian in foreign buyer in NSW 11.7% for new property (13.6% in for apartments, 32% houses and 16% for redevelopment purposes.

Q3) and 9.4% in established markets (9.7% in Q3). Overall, around But these ratios continue to vary widely by state. In QLD, for example

Property Index

NAB’s Residential PropertyDemand Index fell to +1 in Q4 (it was +10 in Q3) and is now well below its long-term average (+13).

Sentiment weakened in most states, especially NSW and QLD. VIC also softer, but strongest overall (replacing NSW) and Demand currentlyAustralian the onlyinvestors state stillwere tracking average. lessabove activeits in long-term the markets Demand for both new and established property. This was particularly apparent in established housing markets, Sentiment fell further in SA/NT in WA. Australian investors were and less remains active invery the weak markets where their share of total demand fell to a survey low Owner occupiers (net of FHBs) were less active in all states (except WA) with their share of national demand falling for new property falling to 27.6% (30.4% in Q4). In contrast, local investors (net of FHBs) were more active, accounting for 24% of new property demand (22.5% in Q4). They were particularly active in VIC where they accounted for 43.8% of total demand (25% in Q4). The share of foreign buyers in new property markets continued to recede, falling to 11.8% of total demand - its lowest level since mid-2014. Foreign buyers were notably less prominent in VIC (10.7%), NSW (11.1%) & WA (2.9%), but played a bigger role in QLD (21.9% vs. 20.9% in Q4).

1. Residential Property - Market Performance

Residential property -- Market performance Residential property Market performance House price expectations House price expectations Residential property - Market performance

House price expectations Rental expectations Expectations for national house price growth next year Expectations for rental growth over the next year are broadly unchanged at 0.4% (0.5% in Q4’15). softened in all states Expectations except VICstrengthened (broadly unchanged at 0.7%) & Expectations for house next year are broadly unchanged at (0.5% in in Expectations for national national house price price growth growth next year are broadly unchanged1.6%). at 0.4% 0.4%On (0.5% in Q4’15).

Q4’15).surveyed Expectations strengthened in VIC VIC (1.7% (1.7% vs. vs. 0.7%) & LEGAL 法律 Expectations strengthened in VIC (1.7% vs.vs.

0.7%) & average, property professionals SA/NT (-0.1% vs.

-0.6%), but were cut back in QLD (1.2% 1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs.

0%) & WA (-1% vs.

-0.5%).

Property professionals on average see SA/NT (-0.1% vs. -0.6%), but were cut back in QLD (1.2% vs. 1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs. 0%) & WA (-1% vs. -0.5%). Property professionals on average see house house SA/NT (-0.1% vs.

-0.6%), but were cut back in QLD (1.2% expect rents to increase by 1.1% in NSW (1.8% in Q4) prices rising 0.7% in 2 years’ time (1% in Q4), led by VIC (1.6%) & QLD (1.4%).

Smaller gains are tipped for WA (0.4%) & SA/NT (0.3%), with prices expected prices rising 0.7% in 2 years’ time (1% in Q4), led by VIC (1.6%) & QLD (1.4%). Smaller gains are tipped for WA (0.4%) & SA/NT (0.3%), with pricesand expected to in (-0.1%).

1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs. 0%) & WA (-1% vs. -0.5%). fall in all other states, led by SA/NT (-1.6%), WA (-1.1%) & to fall fallvs. in NSW NSW (-0.1%).

Expectations forprofessionals national house price growth next are broadly at 0.4% (0.5% in Q4’15).

Expectations strengthened VIC income (1.7% vs. 0.7%) & Property on average seeyear house pricesunchanged rising QLD (-0.6%).

VIC is expected to provide the in best SA/NT (-0.1% for vs. but were cut back in QLD (1.2% vs. 1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs.at0%) & (0.5% WA (-1% vs. -0.5%).

Property professionals on average % -0.6%), House Price Expectations (%) 12 months forecast Expectations national house price growth next year are broadly unchanged 0.4% in Q4’15).

Expectations strengthened in VIC (1.7%see vs.house 0.7%) & 0.7% in %2 years’ time (1% Q4), led IN

by TERTIARY VIC & QLD returns in 2 years’ time12(2.1%) followed (1.3%), Housein Price Expectations (%) (1.6%)EDUCATION months forecast by NSW DISTRIBUTION FOREIGN BY0%)COUNTRY OFvs.DESTINATION prices in 2OF years’ time cut (1%STUDENTS in Q4), led by VIC vs.

(1.6%) & QLD (1.4%).

Smaller gains are tipped for WA (0.4%) professionals & SA/NT (0.3%), with prices expected 6.0 -0.6%), SA/NT rising (-0.1%0.7% vs. but were back in QLD (1.2% 1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs. & WA (-1% -0.5%).

Property on average see house 6.0 Next 12are months Next & 2 years (1.4%).

Smaller gains tipped for WA (0.4%) SA/NT with rents predicted to fall by -0.1% in WA, -0.4% in QLD hefall average expectation for national growth next year was scaled back again and isfor now 0.5%with (from 1.5% in Q3 Survey).

SOURCE: AUSTRADE to in NSW (-0.1%). 各国接受高等教育的海外学生比例 (20012-13) Next 12 months Next & 2 years prices rising 0.7% in 2 years’ time (1%house in Q4),price led by VIC (1.6%) QLD (1.4%).

Smaller gains in areQ4 tipped WAtipped (0.4%)to & grow SA/NTjust (0.3%), prices expected 5.0 5.0 with prices NSWis(-0.1%). & -1.2% in SA/NT. Expectations cut back expected in all states to barfall WAin (which still negative). Capital gains tipped to be strongest in QLD (1.9%) and VIC (0.7%). Outlook for NSW to fall(0.3%), in NSWwere (-0.1%).

1.4% 4.0 falling in SA/NT (-0.6%) and WA (-0.5%). National prices to rise 1% in 2 years’ time (1.8% in Q3 flat with prices Survey), led by QLD (2.7%), VIC (1%) and WA 1.4% NORTHERN 0.4% 12 months % House Price Expectations (%) 4.0 NORTHERN forecast

House price expectations House price expectations House price expectations

(0.6%), with smaller gains in NSWHouse (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). (%) Average Survey Expectations 6.0 20.0% % 3.0 % House PricePrice Expectations (%) Next 2 years Next 12 months 3.0 5.0

4.0

2016

-1.0 -2.0

0.0 1.0

Q3'13 Q3'13

7.1%

Q2'14 Q2'14

WA WA

QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND

0.0

Q3'14 Q3'14

美国

AUSTRALIA NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TERRITORY NEW SOUTH NEW SOUTH NORTHERN WALES WALES 0.3% QUEENSLAND TERRITORY

1.4%

0.3%

WESTERN AUSTRALIA -0.5% WESTERN AUSTRALIA

1.0

USA

Next 2 years 12 months forecast SOUTH SOUTH 1.4%

0.4% 0.4%

2.0

erformance RUSSIA 7.7% 1. Residential Property - Market Performance 1.0 0.0 2.0

21.1%

TERRITORY

WESTERN WESTERN Next 12AUSTRALIA months AUSTRALIA

3.0

NSW NSW

SA/NT SA/NT

Australia Australia

Vic Vic

Qld Qld

WA WA

SA/NT SA/NT

Australia Australia

2.0 1.0 3.0

10% 0.0

NSW NSW

Qld Qld

Vic Vic

6.0 5.0 Next 12 months Next 2 years 2.0 Next 12 months 17.5% 2.0 % House Price Expectations (%) Next 2 years 4.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 Next 12 months Next 2 years 15.0% Q1 4.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 Residential 0.0 NAB Property Survey 3.0 12.5% 2.0 4.0 1.0

0.4%

TERRITORY Average Survey Rental Expectations (%) 12 months forecast

%

Q1 2016 -0.1%

-0.1% 1.9%

VICTORIA QUEENSLAND NORTHERN VICTORIA SOUTH TERRITORY AUSTRALIA SOUTH NEW SOUTH QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA 德国 WALES 0.3% NEW SOUTH -0.1% SOUTH WALES 0.3% AUSTRALIAVICTORIA

GERMANY 1.6% 1.6%

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

SA/NT

Qld

WA

VICTORIA

Australia

NSW

Victoria

SA/NT

WA

Qld

Australia

NSW

Victoria

WA WA

WA

NSW NSW

NSW

NSW

SA/NTSA/NT SA/NT

Australia

SA/NT

Australia Australia WA

Vic Vic Australia

Qld

WA

SA/NT

Australia

NSW

Vic

Qld

Rental Rental expectations expectations

Vic

Qld Qld Qld

Vic

WA WA

WASA/NT SA/NT

Australia Australia

NSW NSW

俄罗斯

NSW

Australia

SA/NT

Qld Qld

Qld

Vic

Vic Vic

-1.0 JAPAN 日本 -2.0 CHINA 5.9% -0.1% Rental expectations FRANCE House price expectations 5.0% Rental expectations 中国 NEW SOUTH AUSTRALIA 5.0% WALES year Expectations for rental growth over the next year 法国 1.6%year 0.0澳大利亚 Q3'13 Q2'14growth Q3'14 4.3% Expectations for national house price next year Expectations for rental growth over-0.6% the next 0.0% softened in unchanged all states except VIC (broadly unchanged 2.5% Q3'13 Q2'14 Q3'14 at softened in all states except VIC (broadly1.6% are broadly at 0.4% (0.5% in Q4’15). unchanged at 2.5% Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 & 1.6%).

On average, surveyed property professionals Expectations for rental growth over the next year softened in all states except VIC (broadly unchanged at 1.6%).

On average, surveyed Expectations strengthened in VIC (1.7% vs.

0.7%) & 1.6%).

On average, surveyed property professionals Expectations for rental growth over the next year softened in all states except VIC (broadly unchanged at 1.6%). On average, surveyed property property professionals professionals 0.7% 0%rents to increaseQ3'13 1.1% NSW (1.8% in Q4) fall all states, led by (-1.6%), (-1.1%) QLD VIC is to Q2'14 Q3'14and (1.2% expect expect rents to by increase bywere 1.1% in NSW in Q4) SA/NT (-0.1% vs.

-0.6%), but cut in(1.8% QLD expect rents to increase by 1.1% in& (1.8% in Q4) and NAB Property Index expect rentsResidential to increase by 1.1% in in NSW (1.8% inback Q4) and and fall in in(1.2% all other other states, led

by SA/NT SA/NT (-1.6%), WA WA (-1.1%) &NSW QLD (-0.6%).

(-0.6%).

VIC is expected expected to provide provide the the best income returns in 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed by NSW (1.3%), with rents predicted to fall by -0.1% in WA, -0.4% in QLD & -1.2% in SA/NT. vs.

1.9%), NSW (-0.2% vs.

0%) & WA (-1% vs.

-0.5%). fall in all other states, led by SA/NT (-1.6%), WA (-1.1%) & best income returns in 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed by NSW (1.3%), with rents predicted to fall by -0.1% in WA, -0.4% in QLD & -1.2% in SA/NT. ). fall in all other states, led by SA/NT (-1.6%), WA (-1.1%) & National housing market sentiment improved in Q1’16, with the NAB Residential Property Index rising to +6 (+1 in WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES BYprovide PERCENTAGE SHARE OFQLD TOTAL SHARE OFis NOMINAL GDP Property professionals on average see house prices (-0.6%).

VIC expected to thebelow best income s rising QLD (-0.6%).

VIC is expected to three the bestrising income Q4’15).

This reverses trend of consecutive quarterly although the index isprovide still well its long-term Expectations for rental growth a over the next year softened in all states except falls, VIC (broadly unchanged at 1.6%).

On average, surveyed property professionals 根据名义国内生产总值比率的世界最大经济体 (6/2014) SOURCE: AUSTRADE 0.7% in 2 years’ time (1% in Q4), led by VIC (1.6%) & QLD returns in 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed by NSW (1.3%), & QLDexpect returns in 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed by NSW (1.3%), average (+13).

Market sentiment improved in most states, led by NSW (up 16 to +26), but VIC continues toexpected lead the rents to increase by 1.1% in NSW (1.8% in Q4) and fall in all other states, led by SA/NT (-1.6%), WA (-1.1%) & QLD (-0.6%).

VIC is to provide the Expectations for rental growth over the next year softened in all states except VIC (broadly unchanged at 1.6%).

On average, surveyed property professionals (1.4%).

Smaller gains are tipped for WAin (0.4%) & SA/NT with predicted rents predicted fall in byWA, -0.1% in WA, -0.4% in QLD income returns 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed by NSW (1.3%), rents to fall byto -0.1% -0.4% in(-0.6%).

QLD & -1.2% in SA/NT. A/NT best with rents predicted to fall -0.1% WA, -0.4% inwith QLD 12 months forecast country 8into +31) and isby also the only state above itsbylong-term average.

Sentiment improved in QLD (up expect rents to% (up increase by 1.1% inRental NSW (1.8% in Q4) and fall intracking all other states, led SA/NT (-1.6%), WA (-1.1%) & QLD VIC is expected to provide the Expectations (%) 12 months forecast % Rental (%)(-0.1%).

(0.3%),returns with prices expected toExpectations fall in NSW & -1.2% in SA/NT. 5.0in best income inin 2 years’ time (2.1%) followed

by NSW(up (1.3%), with rentsInpredicted to fall bynext -0.1% in WA, -0.4% in QLD & -1.2% in SA/NT. . & -1.2% SA/NT. 422.5% to +11) SA/NT but remains negative +6 to -25). contrast, sentiment among property professionals in 22.8% The outlook for rents varies across states.

Property professionals are forecasting higher returns year in NSW (1.8%) and VIC (1.7%), flat growth in SA/NT 5.0 and Next 12 months Next 2 years

7.5%

VICTORIA

Rental expectations Rental expectations Rental expectations

12 months Next 2 years 4.0 and more modest in QLD (0.6%).

Rents are well expected to continue falling insurvey WA (-0.4%) asSurvey employment and population WA fell to areturns new Next Survey low (-67) and below its long-term average (-1).

4.0 Average Survey House Price Expectations (%) Average Rental Expectations (%) slows. NSW (2.6%) and VIC (2%) % % 20.0% USA expected to remain the best yielding states in 2 years’ time, also resuming in WA (1%). Expectations in QLD have been back, but remain Average Survey Rental Expectations (%)with 3.0 -0.4% % Forward expectations have however softened, withgrowth the NAB rise toscaled just +18 5.0 4.0 Residential Property Index expected to 3.0 美国 NORTHERN -0.1% 12 months forecast-0.4% % Rental ExpectationsNext (%)2 years Next 12 months NORTHERN positive Next 12 months -0.1% TERRITORY Next 2 years 4.0(0.9%).

2.0 (+29 in Q4), with property professionals in VIC (+49) the most optimistic in the next year country and WA the most 17.5% 4.0 TERRITORY 3.0 2.0 5.0 12 months forecast Next 12 months % Rental Expectations (%) Next 2 years QUEENSLAND Next 12index months is expected to climb Next 2 years 1.0 pessimistic (-25). The to +24 in 2 years’ time (+37 inWESTERN Q4), with VIC again leading (+47), QUEENSLAND 3.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 WESTERN AUSTRALIA 15.0% Next 12 months Next 2 years AUSTRALIA SOUTH 0.0 SA/NT (+5) under-performing and WA (+10) the big improver.

2.0 SOUTH 4.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 -0.4% 12 months forecast

SA/NT

Qld

WA

Australia

NSW

2.1% 2.1% BRAZIL

Victoria

3.7%

Q1'15

1.3% 1.3% 0.6%

VICTORIA QUEENSLAND VICTORIA SOUTH NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TERRITORY SOUTH 英国 AUSTRALIA NEW SOUTH WALES QUEENSLAND -1.2% 巴西 WESTERN NEW SOUTH AUSTRALIA WALES -1.2% SOUTH VICTORIA Q4'15 Q1'16 AUSTRALIA

SA/NT

WA

Qld

NSW

Victoria

5.0% 0

-1.2%

UK

Australia

Qld Qld

Australia Australia

20

SA/NT

SA/NT

德国

TERRITORY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WESTERN -0.4% AUSTRALIA

60

GERMANY 40

-2.0

NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

NEW SOUTH -0.4% NEW SOUTH WALES NAB -0.1% Residential NORTHERN Property Index

by State WALES -1.2% QUEENSLAND TERRITORY

Index

-1.0

Q3'14 Q3'14

WA Qld Qld

Q1'16

Australia Victoria Victoria

Australia

WA

6.3%

NSW

Victoria Victoria

日本

AUSTRALIA

-0.1%

0.0

Qld Australia Australia

JAPAN

SA/NT SA/NT

NSW NSW

Next 2 years

NSW SA/NTSA/NT

WA WA

Q4'15

Victoria NSW NSW

Q2'14 Q2'14

Qld

WA WA

Vic

Australia Australia

Qld Qld WA

-2.0 0.0 Q1'15 average -1.0

SA/NT Australia Australia

AustraliaAustralia Vic Vic

2.5%

NSW NSW NSW

20

Q3'13 Q3'13

-1.0 1.0 -2.0 Victoria

SA/NT

NSW

5.0%

0.0 2.0 -1.0

Qld

Vic

30 -2.0

中国

NSW

3.0 1.0 0.0

CHINA

WA Qld Qld

-1.0

50 10% 0.0

1.0

Next 12 months Property Index NAB Residential Vic Vic

-2.0 4.0 2.0 -2.0 1.0

Qld SA/NT SA/NT SA/NTSA/NT SA/NT

0.0

NSW NSW

1.0 Index

40 -2.0 -1.0 7.5%

Rental Expectations (%) 13.1%

% -1.0 5.0 3.0 -1.0 2.0

1.0 12.5%

1.3% AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 1.3%

2.9%NEW SOUTH 2.1% VICTORIA

-20

Australia

Qld

Victoria

SA/NT

NSW

WA

Australia

Qld

SA/NT

NSW

10

Vic

Q3'13 Q3'14 WALES Q1'15 Q1'16 NAB Residential Property IndexQ4'15Q2'14 1.9% -2.0 0.0%2.1% -40 0% Q3'13market sentiment Q2'14 Q3'14 0 National housing improved in Q1’16, with the NAB Residential Property Index rising to +6 (+1 in 1.8% VICTORIA Q1’ -60 Q1’ 2016 2016 Q4’15).

This reverses a trend of three consecutive quarterly falls, although the index is still well below its long-term -10 BY-COUNTRY SHARE OF AUSTRALIA’S EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES 1.7% Market sentiment improved in most states, led by NSW (up 16 to +26), but VIC continues to lead the 1’16, with average the NAB(+13).

Residential Property Index rising to +6 (+1 in -80 Q3'13 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'15 Q1'16 Next Qtr Next 12 months Next 2 years -20 housing National sentiment improved in Q1’16, with the NAB Residential Property rising to country (upmarket 8 tothe +31) and isis also only state tracking its long-term average. 按留学地点定出的高等教育海外留学生分布 quarterly falls, although index still the well below its long-term National housing market sentiment improved in Q1’16, with the NABabove Residential Property Index Index risingSentiment to +6 +6 (+1 (+1 in in improved in QLD (up SOURCE: AUSTRADE Q4’15).

This reverses a trend of three consecutive quarterly falls, although the index is still well below its long-term 4 to +11) and in SA/NT but remains negative (up +6 to -25).

In contrast, sentiment among property professionals in Victoria NSW Qld SA/NT WA Australia NORTHERN Q4’15).

ThisNSW reverses trend threebut consecutive quarterly falls, although -67pts Q1’ 2016 t states, led by (upa 16 toof+26), VIC continues to lead the the index is still well below its long-term NORTHERN -67pts TERRITORY average (+13).

Market sentiment improved in most states, led by NSW (up 16 to +26), but VIC continues to lead the TERRITORY WA fell to a new Survey low (-67) and well below its long-term survey average (-1). average (+13).

Market sentiment improved in most states, led by NSW (up 16 to +26), but VIC continues to lead the 2008 2014 Q1’ 2016 cking above its long-term average. improved in long-term QLD (upaverage. Sentiment improved in QLD $150.9 bnSentiment country (up +31) the state above its QUEENSLAND 11pts country (up 88 to toexpectations +31) and and is is also also the only only state tracking tracking above itsthe long-term average. Sentiment improved in QLD to rise QUEENSLAND 11pts Forward have however softened, with NAB Residential Property Index expected to just +18 WESTERN 160 WESTERN 6 to -25).

Into contrast, sentiment among property professionals in sentiment (up and in SA/NT but negative +6 -25).

In contrast, among property AUSTRALIA National housing market sentiment improved in(up Q1’16, with the Residential Property Index risingprofessionals to +6 (+1 in (up 44 next to +11) +11) and(+29 in SA/NT but remains remains negative (up +6 to to -25).

InNAB contrast, sentiment among property professionals AUSTRALIA year in Q4), with property professionals in VIC (+49) the most optimistic in the country and WA the mostSOUTH SOUTH in WA fell to aa new Survey low well below its long-term survey average (-1).

Q4’15).

This reverses a trend of (-67) threeand consecutive quarterly falls, although the index is still Index well below its long-term AUSTRALIA ts long-term survey average (-1).

National housing market sentiment improved in Q1’16, with the NAB Residential Property rising to +6 (+1 in in WA140 fell to new Survey low (-67) and well below its long-term survey average (-1).

Q4 2015 AUSTRALIA -67pts pessimistic (-25).

The index is expected to climb to +24 in 2 years’ time (+37 in Q4), with VIC again leading (+47),NORTHERN TERRITORY NEW SOUTH average (+13).

Market improved in mostquarterly states, led by NSW (up 16 +26),isbut continues lead the Q4’15).

This reverses a sentiment trend of Index three consecutive falls, although theto index stillVIC well below itstolong-term h the NAB Residential Property expected to rise to just +18 NEW SOUTH NORTHERN WALES -67pts SA/NT (+5) under-performing and WA (+10) the big improver.

WALES country (up 8 to +31) and is also the only state tracking above its NSW long-term improved QLD QUEENSLAND TERRITORY -25pts 11pts (+13).

Market sentiment improved in most states, led the by (up 16average. to +26),Sentiment but VIC continues toin lead the 120the 26pts -25pts WESTERN in VIC average (+49) most optimistic in the country and WA most 26pts VICTORIA (up 4 to +11) and in SA/NT but remains negative (up +6 to -25).

In contrast, sentiment among property professionals The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (from +10 in Q3)—its third consecutive fall—dragged down by AUSTRALIA country (up 8 to +31) and is also the only state tracking above its long-term average. Sentiment improved in QLD QUEENSLAND 11pts

Q1'16

Q3'15

Q4'15

Q2'15

Q1'15

Q4'14

Q3'14

Q1'14

Q2'14

Q4'13

Q3'13

Q2'13

Q1'13

Q4'12

Q3'12

Q2'12

Q1'12

Q4'11

Q3'11

Q2'11

Q1'11

NAB NAB Residential Residential Property Property Index Index

NAB Residential Property Index NAB Residential Property Index NAB Residential Property Index

$31.2 bn

sNextNext Next2 2years years 2 years 2 years Next

NextNext Qtr Qtr

Q3'14 Q3'14

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 75 Index value in... s

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

-60

r Next Next1212months months xt 12 months 12 months Next

Q3'14 Q3'14

新加坡

WA value in...

SA/NT Index WA SA/NT WA

Q2'14 Q2'14

Qld

Q1'14 Q1'14

Q4'13 Q4'13

Q3'13 Q3'13

NSW

Q2'13 Q2'13

Q4'12 Q4'12

Q1'13 Q1'13

Q3'12 Q3'12

Q2'12 Q2'12

Q1'12 Q1'12

Victoria

8pts

Index value in...

Index value in relevant survey period...

1

31pts

SINGAPORE

Next 2 years

南韩

SA/NT

NextQtr Qtr Next

Q2'14 Q2'14

Q1'14 Q1'14

Q4'13 Q4'13

Q3'13 Q3'13

Q2'13 Q2'13

Q4'12 Q4'12

SOUTH KOREANext 12 months Next Qtr

Victoria NSW surveyQld Index value in relevant period...

Victoria NSW Qld

4

Q1'16

Q1'13 Q1'13

Q3'12 Q3'12

Q2'12 Q2'12

NAB Residential Property Index

20pts

NEW SOUTH $27.1 bnWALES 31pts

-31pts

Index value in relevant survey period...

Index value in...

VICTORIA Index value in relevant survey period... in...

National Australia Index Bank -value Group Economics | 2 Q1'12 Q1'12

Q4'11 Q4'11

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Index value in relevant survey period...

Q4'11 Q4'11

Q3'11 Q3'11

-40

1

Next 2 years

Q3'11 Q3'11

Q2'11 Q2'11

Q1'11 Q1'11

-20

商道 Australia WA Next 12 months Australia Q3'14 WA

Q2'11 Q2'11

美国 -60 -4020 Australia Australia -60 0 Australia Q1'11 Q1'11

Q1'16

USAQ4'15

Q4'15

WA WA

Q3'15

Q3'14 Q3'14

Q2'15

Q1'15

Q4'14

Q3'14

Q1'14

Q4'13

Q3'13

Q2'13

Q1'13

Q4'12

Q3'12

Q2'12

Q1'12

Q4'11

Q3'11

Q2'11

JAPAN

Australia Australia 日本

-20 0 60 -80 -4040 -20

1

'16

Q1'11

CHINA

-40 40 60 -40 -40 -60 20 40 -60 Index 0 80 -60 20

Q2'14

10 50 -10 -10 30 40 2020 -20 NAB Residential Property Index -20 Index 0 20 30 -30 60 0 -30 10 20 -40 AUS$ -10 BN 50 -40 0 10 -50 -20 40 -50 -10 -20 Queensland Victoria NSW SA/NT 0 Victoria中国 NSW SA/NT 30 Queensland -20 -40 -10 Q3'13 Q2'14 20 -30 Q3'13 Q2'14 -20 10 -60 -40 -30 0 -50 -40 -80 Victoria NSW SA/NT -10 Queensland Q4'15 Q1'16 Next Qtr -50 -20 Queensland Victoria NSW Q2'14 SA/NT Q3'13

VICTORIA SOUTH AUSTRALIA NORTHERN SOUTH TERRITORY AUSTRALIA NEW SOUTH WALES QUEENSLAND -25pts NEW SOUTH WALES 26pts VICTORIA -25pts SOUTH 26pts AUSTRALIA VICTORIA

31pts 31pts

60

50NSW 80 40(down 32 to +10) and QLD (down 20 to +7). Sentiment also softened 60 in VIC (down 8 to +23), but is now 40 in40 40 40 40 $54.7 average bn strongest overall (replacing NSW). VIC is also the only state tracking$55.1 abovebn its long-term (+15). Sentiment 30 NAB Residential Property Index by State 20 30 20 30 NABtoResidential Property Index Index 60Index Index NAB Residential Property Index 20 20 fell further in SA/NT -31 and remains very weak in WA (-59). NAB’s Residential Property Index is expected to rise 60 20 0 $37.3 bn 60 80 00 NAB Residential Property Index in QLD the most optimistic in Index 20 Index to10 +29 next year, with property professionals the country.

The index is expected to NAB Residential Property Indexbn $32.1 10 average 50 40 -20 60 60 40 0 80 -20 climb to +37 in 2 years’ time, with NSW and QLD leading and WA the big -20 improver.

0 40

'15

'15

$73.8 bn Residential NAB Property Index Index WESTERN NAB Residential Property Index by State NAB Residential Property Index +24 inin 2WA years’ (+37 inbut Q4), with VIC again leading (+47), Index Index Residential Property Index NAB Residential Property Index fell totime a new Survey low (-67) and wellThe below its survey average softer expectations for house price growth. overall is now sitting well(-1). below its NAB long-term average Index Index (up 4100 to +11) and in SA/NT remains negative (up +6 long-term toindex -25). In contrast, sentiment among property professionals NAB Residential Property Index Index AUSTRALIA -59pts 60 80 50 60 60 points) $76.1 bn mid-2012. g improver.

80 (+13 and has fallen to its lowest level since Market sentiment weakened in most states, especially in WA fell to a new Survey low (-67) and well below its long-term survey average (-1). $70.8 bn 50

32pts

TECHNOLOGY

科技

by Ben Hurley, Higher View Business editor 作者：《商道》编辑白杰明

小米公司：风劲路难行

XIAOMI’S CHALLENGES ARE MOUNTING

Chinese tech darling Xiaomi is coming to the United States earlier than many expected.

But experts aren’t convinced the company’s international forays will address the mounting challenges it faces. 中国科技宠儿小米公司即将登陆美国；这个时点要比许多人想象的早。 不过，专家们并不认为小米的国际化扩张战略能够帮助小米解决其所面临的、 不断增加的种种挑战。

C

hinese device-maker Xiaomi has some impressive achievements under its belt. Its online sales model revolutionised the way smartphones were sold in China. It has since completed a $1.1 billion funding round and earned the title of the world’s second-largest startup after Uber.

Not bad for a company barely six years old.

But now the tech world and Xiaomi’s investors are waiting – perhaps a little nervously – for the company’s next trick.

Xiaomi’s sales have flatlined, its forays into overseas markets have not been spectacular, and it has lost ground to competitors in key smartphone price segments in China.

The company’s challenges are mounting.

Xiaomi’s $45 billion valuation – set after its lucrative funding round in late 2014 – is looking shaky after it failed to meet last year’s sales targets. After projecting it would sell 100 million phones in China in 2015, the company only managed 70 million.

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Peter Fuhrman, chairman and CEO of China First Capital, told Bloomberg Xiaomi’s valuation doesn’t seem to have been based on any accepted valuation methodology.

“Hype and hope seem to have been the two key drivers,” he said.

Not all investors agree with that position.

“I am not concerned about the valuation because, over time, their market is substantial,” Hans Tung, managing partner at Xiaomi investor GGV Capital, told Bloomberg.

“Over the next 12 months, it’ll become increasingly obvious what Xiaomi is doing in the smart home and services space.”

China’s saturated smartphone market is getting tougher and the only way to grow now is to snatch market share from the likes of Huawei and Apple.

And that’s getting harder as competitors quickly copied Xiaomi’s business model by selling ultra-thin phones on slick websites at low prices. Huawei, for example, released its 商道

中

国设备制造商小米公司已经取得一些不 俗的成就。其线上销售模式革新了中国 智能手机的销售方式。小米也籍此获得了11亿 美元的融资，成为仅次于“优步”的全球第二 大初创企业。对于一家创办仅六年的公司而 言，这个成绩还算不赖。 但如今科技界与小米的投资者们正在静 候——可能还略带着一丝不安的情绪——这家 公司所出的下一个新招。小米的销售额并未实 现任何增长，其在海外市场的扩张亦未取得令 人瞩目的成就，甚至在中国，小米已将一些关 键的智能手机细分市场拱手让给了竞争对手。 小米所面临的挑战可谓是日增月盛。在2014 年最新一轮的融资之后，小米的估值达到了 450亿美元；在小米去年的销售目标折戟之后， 这个估值如今也岌岌可危。小米公司曾立志 2015年在中国市场上售出1亿部手机，但最终 仅卖出了7000万部。 中国首创的首席执行官Peter Fuhrman向彭 博社表示：“小米的估值似乎并非基于任何公 认的估值方法。炒作和预期似乎是小米大获成 功的两大关键推动因素。”

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online-only Honor line of phones. In the first 并非所有的投资者都认同这个观点。小米投 quarter of 2016, Xiaomi sold 14.8 million 资者纪源资本的管理合伙人童士豪表示：“我 smartphones globally according to IHS 并不担心估值，因为随着时间的推移，小米能 Technology, which compares roughly to 够开拓更大市场；未来12个月，小米在智能家 14.9 million sold in the first quarter of 2015. 居和服务领域的布局将变得更加清晰。” Xiaomi has also lost ground to competitors 中国早已饱和的智能手机市场竞争如火如 in the arena of its flagship phones, which are 荼；如今唯一的发展之道就是从华为和苹果手 priced around 2,000RMB or above. The 中攫取市场份额。 company has always had aspirations to make 随着竞争对手迅速抄袭小米的业务模式——以 its money leveraging its ecosystem to sell 低价在网站上销售超薄手机——这个路子正走得 connected devices and services. It sells a 越来越窄。例如，华为也推出了电商专供的荣耀 range of devices, from action cameras to 系列手机。根据IHS发布的数据，在2016年第一 self-balancing scooters, along with online 个季度，小米共在全球卖出了1480万部智能手机， services like cloud storage and payments. 与2015年第一季度的1490万部相比大致相当。 It is these 2,000RMB users, as opposed to 在定价2000元以上的旗舰手机市场，小米的 those buying cheaper phones, who have the 市场份额已被竞争对手所蚕食。小米一直寄望 financial capacity and can be persuaded into 于通过其生态系统来销售互联设备和服务的方 other areas, says Gartner’s principal research 式盈利。小米的产品囊括了从运动相机到平衡 analyst CK Lu. “The core of Xiaomi’s ecosystem 车的各式物件，以及诸如云存储和支付等等的 is really based on smartphone users,” Lu says. 线上服务。 “If your users are mostly 1,000RMB buyers, 高德纳咨询公司首席研究分析师吕俊宽 they are not the premium users with a big （CKLu）表示：与那些购买低端手机的用户相 商道

$45b Xiaomi’s $45 billion valuation was set after its lucrative funding round in late 2014. 在2014年最新一轮的融资之后， 小米的估值达到了450亿美元。

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3600

Xiaomi filed 3600 patents globally last year. 仅在去年小米就在全球范围 内申请了3600份专利。

反，正是这些2000元级别的用户拥有足够的财 力并最有可能被说服购买小米的其它产品。 吕俊宽指出：“小米生态系统的核心实际上 是建立在智能手机用户之上。如果你绝大部 分用户都处于1000元这个区间，那么他们都 不是拥有足够财力花钱购买更多产品的优质 用户。” “所以，我认为小米的当务之急是重新定位它 的品牌，以收复2000元这块市场。这也是为什 么小米推出了拥有更大屏幕的小米Max，以实 现价格上的分化。”

wallets to spend on more products.”

“So I think now it’s critical for Xiaomi to reposition its brand to win back that 2,000RMB sector. That’s why they have tried the Xiaomi Mi Max with a bigger screen to differentiate in that price point.”

BREAKING INTO NEW MARKETS

Founded by charismatic entrepreneur Lei Jun, Xiaomi is never short of surprises to keep the tech press happy. The running narrative about Xiaomi has long been that a move into Western markets like the US and Australia was still some time away because it would trigger a damaging barrage of lawsuits and patent battles. But the company has announced it will soon launch an Android TV-powered 4K set-top box in the United States and other 78 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

countries in preparation for a greater push into global premium markets.

Hugo Barra, the company’s global VP and Google’s former VP of Android, made it clear in an interview with CNET in April that the company had no plans to launch a smartphone in Western markets in 2016.

But he strongly suggested the launch of its set-top box was laying the groundwork.

“TV products are one of our specialities,” Barra told CNET. “So the fact that we're bringing one of our most important products to the US certainly does say a lot.”

Set-top boxes are simpler products than smartphones, he said, “…so you know one of the things that you could say is this is Xiaomi sort of... warming up to this market, making sure that people start to know our brand.” 商道

勇闯新市场 由神奇创业者雷军一手创办的小米总是能让 科技媒体惊喜不断。关于小米进军美国和澳大 利亚等西方市场的传闻似乎总是遥不可及，因 为这样做的话小米极有可能面临一系列毁灭性 的诉讼和专利战争。但近期小米宣布将很快在 美国和其它国家的市场上推出一部Android TV 4K小米盒子，为其进军全球各大优质市场投石 探路。 小米公司全球副总裁及前谷歌安卓产品副总 裁Hugo Barra在四月份CNET的一次采访之中 明确表示：2016年小米无意在西方市场上推出 一部智能手机。但他强烈暗示推出小米盒子的 目的在于铺路。 Barra向CNET提到：“电视类产品是我们的 专长之一。因此，我们在美国市场上推出我们 拳头产品之一的计划无疑意义重大。” 他指出电视盒子是一种比智能手机更为简单 的产品：“...所以，你知道，你可以拿来说的 东西之一就是这就是小米，相当于为进军这块 市场进行预热，确保消费者开始了解我们的 品牌。” 小米据传将在2016年推出一款与Macbook Pro和MacbookAir抗衡的廉价Windows10笔 记本。

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OA.CEAIR.COM 商道

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WHATEVER CLASS YOU’RE IN.

TECHNOLOGY WELCOME

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澳大利亚中国总商会简介 澳大利亚中国总商会是中国驻澳大利亚的中资企 业的联合组织，为非营利性的社团，成立于2006 年。截止2016年6月，共有273家会员单位，分布在 新南威尔士州、维多利亚州、西澳大利亚州和昆士 兰州。会员业务涉及能源、矿产、贸易、金融、通 信、运输、房地产、制造、旅游农牧业等多个领域。 总部设在悉尼，并分别在悉尼、墨尔本、珀斯和 布里斯班建有四个分会。总商会目前有27名理事， 其中设有1位会长和4位副会长，各分会会长由总商 会会长或副会长兼任。目前、悉尼分会共120家会 员单位，业务范围包括能源、矿产、贸易、金融、 通信、运输、旅游、制造、科技等多个行业。珀斯

分会共53家会员单位，主要由国内大型的矿产、钢 铁、油气等资源类企业组成；墨尔本分会共52家会 员单位，主要以科技、制造、能源类企业为主；布 里斯班分会目前共48家会员单位，主要以能矿企业 为主。 总商会的宗旨是为会员服务，维护会员的合法权 益，促进中澳经济贸易关系的发展和企业间的交流， 为会员在澳大利亚和中国的业务发展发挥桥梁和纽 带作用。 澳大利亚中国总商会现任会长是中国银行悉尼分 行行长兼澳大利亚地区总代表胡善君先生，胡先生 同时兼任悉尼分会会长。

Brief Introduction of China Chamber of Commerce in Australia China Chamber of Commerce in Australia (or CCCA for short) was founded in 2006 and is a non-profit national organization jointly formed by trade associations representing Chinese investors across Australia. The CCCA has 27 directors in its management, with four branches and currently 273 members across New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland. Sydney branch has 120 members, Perth branch has 53 members, Melbourne branch has 52 members and Brisbane branch has 48 members by the end of June 2016.

The business scope of the membership covers a wide range of industries including of energy, mining, trade, finance, communication,

transportation, real estate, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry.

The Mission of the CCCA is to provide services to its members, protect their lawful rights, and promote the development of China-Australia economic and trade relations and exchanges between companies in both countries. The organization aims to serve as a bridge between Australia and China to facilitate the business development of its members in the two countries.

The Chairman of CCCA is Mr.Hu Shanjun, who is General Manager & Country HeadAustralia of Bank of China, and he also chairs CCCA Sydney Branch.

www.chinachamber.org.au

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The company is rumoured to be working on an affordable Windows 10 powered notebook that will compete with the Macbook Pro and Macbook Air 2016.

It is set to release a drone that will be half the price of DJI’s Phantom 4 and, on paper, has comparable specs. Time will tell how it actually performs.

And the company’s new flagship Mi5 smartphone has received rave reviews for its high-end features, sleek design and low price tag.

It’s considered a given that new Xiaomi phones will support Google’s Daydream standard for virtual reality, and some have speculated Xiaomi will try to beat competing smartphone manufacturers to market with supporting devices to improve its sales in new markets.

But a move to overseas markets like the US or Australia would throw up a range of challenges. Americans, like Australians, buy most of their phones from carriers, while Xiaomi sells its phones on its website. A move into these markets would involve tying up deals with major mobile carriers, although would probably involve an online sales push as well.

It would also potentially see a fresh round of patent skirmishes with entrenched players like Apple and Samsung.

While the company has a growing portfolio of invention patents, its library is still small compared to its rivals. Last year Xiaomi’s India sales hit a roadblock when Ericsson successfully sued for copyright infringements.

A move to overseas markets like the US or Australia would throw up a range of challenges.

In the first quarter of 2016, Xiaomi sold 14.8 million smartphones globally according to IHS Technology.

14.8

million

在2016年第一个 季度，小米共在全球卖 出了1480万部智能 手机。

Xiaomi’s Redmi Note 3G was banned from being sold in India and the company had to pay a fee to Ericsson for each phone already sold.

The company was also sued by Blue Spike over patents for its devices the Mi5 and Mi5 plus.

Xiaomi is well aware of these challenges.

Xiaomi filed 3600 patents globally last year.

“We’re very well prepared,” Barra told CNET about patents. “There's no mystery involved in this territory. It's very predictable.”

NO SILVER BULLET

But contrary to popular view, the patent issue is not Xiaomi’s biggest challenge, Gartner’s Lu says.

“The patent issue is not the yes or no question to get into those markets because patents can be solved by money,” he says.

“If you pay royalties you can still get into that market. The bottom line is if your product is attractive enough. Let’s say they want to go to the US but can only get 1% or 0.5% of the market. Is it worth it to pay the royalties? So it’s really down to how much you can sell.”

Xiaomi’s online sales model changed the game in China. It disrupted the formerly tight relationship between vendors like Apple and Samsung and mobile phone carriers and gave the company meteoric growth.

But going global may not solve the company’s woes. “I think they are fighting on too many fronts,” Lu says. “In order to get to overseas markets you have to understand local consumers, local requirements, it’s just too much. They need to refocus on their number one priority, which is to win back that 2,000RMB sector [in China] and put the company back into a growth pattern. Then they could shift their focus to other things.” 商道

小米已发布了一款价格仅为大疆精灵4一半 并且理论上规格与之相差无几的无人机。唯有 时间才能见证这款产品的实际性能。 凭借着各种高端的功能、优秀的设计以及低 廉的价格，小米公司的新款旗舰手机小米5获 得了热烈的反响。 新款小米手机将支持谷歌提 出的 Daydream VR标准；某些人还推测小米打算 通过销售配套设备的方式来击败与之竞争的智 能手机制造商，以改善其在新市场上的销量。 但是，进军美国或澳大利亚等海外市场将需 要面对一系列的挑战。和澳大利亚人一样，大 部分美国人都是向运营商购买手机，而小米则 是通过网站来销售手机。进军这些市场将需要 小米与主要的移动运营商达成相关交易，虽然 亦可能涉及线上促销等方面的活动。 小米亦可能面临着苹果和三星等树大根深的 竞争对手所发起的新一轮专利大战。 虽然小米的发明专利数量也在不断增加之 中，但与其竞争对手相比，小米的底子依然单 薄。去年小米在印度的业务由于爱立信发起的 专利侵权诉讼而受到较大影响；小米被禁止在 印度销售红米Note 3G手机，并且必须就已经 售出的每部手机向爱立信支付专利费。 小米亦被Blue Spike起诉称其小米5以及小 米5 Plus手机侵犯了后者的专利。 小米对这些挑战洞若观火；仅在去年小米就 在全球范围内申请了3600份专利。 对于这些专利，Barra向CNET表示：“我们 已做好了充足的准备。这块领域并没有什么神 秘之处；它完全是可预测的。” 尚无良方 但是与普遍观点相左的是，吕俊宽认为专利问 题并非是小米所面对的最大挑战。他认为：“专 利问题并不是决定小米是否进军这些市场的关键 因素，因为专利可以通过钱来解决。如果你支付 了专利费，那么你依然可以进入相关市场；关键 在于你的产品要有足够的吸引力。换而言之，小 米希望进军美国市场，但只能拿到1%或0.5%的 市场份额，那么这些份额是否还值得小米去缴纳 专利费？所以，真正的问题在于小米的销量。” 小米的线上销售模式改变了中国的游戏规 则。它颠覆了过去供货商（比如苹果和三星） 与移动网络运营商之间建立的亲密关系，并成 就了小米公司的飞速成长。 但是，“走出去”可能无法解决小米公司眼 下的困局。吕俊宽表示：“我认为小米把战线 拉得太长了。为了进军海外市场，小米公司需 要了解当地的消费者、当地的需求...有太多太 多的东西需要搞清楚。小米公司目前的第一要 务就是要夺回中国的2000元手机市场，帮助公 司回到增长的道路上来。然后，小米方才可以 将重心放到其它目标之上。” H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 81

HEALTH

健康

by Helen Chen, Justin Wang and Neale Jones 作者：陈玮，王景烨及 尼尔·琼斯

中澳健康合作新天地

A SHOT IN THE ARM

As China’s healthcare and biopharma businesses look to expand overseas, Australia is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for foreign investment in these sectors. With ChAFTA loosening previous trade restrictions, the Australian healthcare market is receiving an invigorating boost from Chinese investment dollars, according to L.E.K. Consulting. 中国健康及生物医药企业正日益寻求国际发展机会，而澳大利亚作为该领域投资目 的地的吸引力与日俱增。艾意凯咨询公司指出，中澳自贸协定的签署，减少了不少 先前的贸易限制，澳洲健康医疗市场在吸引中国投资方面正蓄势待发，良机涌现。 CHINA’S GLOBAL EXPANSION DIRECTIVE

China’s healthcare and biopharma market, with 3500 drug companies and 1200 device companies, is nearing saturation point. In a bid to improve their domestic competitiveness, more and more of these companies are looking overseas for expansion.

L.E.K. Consulting recently conducted a survey of Shanghai companies and found that healthcare-oriented investments now account for 10% of outbound deals and value.

Common international expansion paths include: Product portfolio. Companies can purchase a pharmaceutical patent and technology licence to manufacture biopharmaceutical products in overseas markets by building greenfield factories, to establish overseas R&D centres, and to take advantage of the advanced technology in overseas markets for developing new drugs, which will in turn nurture the domestic market. This concept can also be expanded to adjacent sectors, in medical products and to healthcare services.

Market expansion. Companies enter 82 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

overseas markets to grow the global business, expand the customer base, increase the possibility for cross-selling, and to grab more market share. Expanding Chinese brands into global brands by establishing marketing channels abroad, as consumer products companies Haier, Xiaomi or Huawei have done, are key goals for leading companies.

Acquisition or partnership. Instead of greenfield development, companies can obtain core competencies such as marketing, channels, products, technology or patents through acquisition of foreign companies.

They can also conduct R&D, manufacture and sales in overseas markets by establishing strategic cooperation with an overseas partner or setting up a joint venture. For example, Hong Kong-listed Biostime International Holdings acquired Australian health supplements manufacturer Swisse Wellness, which highlights the demand for Australian brands and products in China.

Financing. Companies seek overseas IPO or engage in market-oriented asset investment and financial investment. Biopharma companies have a large upfront cost in R&D; 商道

中国企业的国际扩张 在一个拥有3500家药企和1200家医疗器械企 业的市场,中国生物医药企业日益饱和。为了提 高竞争力，该行业中越来越多的中企正考虑国际 扩张。 根据艾意凯咨询对上海企业的最新调研，我 们发现，健康医疗相关的投资从交易数量及金额 上看都已占到境外投资10%的份额。常见的生物 医药企业国际化扩张方式包含几个层面： 产品层面，企业可向海外企业购买药物专利与 技术许可；绿地建厂，实现海外市场的生物医药 产品生产；建立海外药物研发中心，利用海外市 场先进技术开发新药物，反哺国内市场。这个概 念也可以将业务拓展到相邻的医疗产品和医疗服 务领域。 市场拓展层面，企业希望进军海外市场以 开拓全球业务，扩大客户群体，增加交叉销售 机会和市场份额。建立海外营销渠道，把自有中 国品牌产品拓展成国际品牌（如消费品企业海 尔、小米、华为所作的），是许多一流企业的重 点目标。 兼并或合资层面，除了绿地建厂，企业可通 过收购海外企业获得市场、渠道、产品、技术或 专利等核心能力；与海外合作伙伴建立战略合作 或设立合资企业，可借助海外合作伙伴的能力在 海外市场进行研发、生产和销售。比如，在香港

HEALTH

健康

上市合生元国际控股有限公司收购了澳大利亚保 健品生产商Swisse Wellness，这一收购案凸显了 中国对澳大利亚品牌和产品的需求。 金融层面，企业希望能在海外上市融资，或以 市场为导向，进行资产投资与财投资。生物医药 企业往往需要大量的成本投入临床科研，无论是 澳大利亚ASX还是美国NASDAQ都有相对成熟的 融资环境，理解医药行业有相对较长的投资回报 期，尤其是针对产出收益尚且不大的中小型规模 企业。 目前全球医疗健康行业正经历着规模空前的 并购浪潮，中国本土企业也通过自身积累或资 本市场获得了大笔资金，加快了对外投资合作的 步伐。

the financial environment abroad, whether ASX in Australia or NASDAQ in the US, is relatively more mature and understands the longer return cycles of the industry, especially for medium and small enterprises with modest current earnings.

The global healthcare industry is now experiencing an unprecedented wave of M&A, and Chinese domestic companies have also raised large amounts of capital via ongoing businesses or through capital markets, resulting in an accelerated pace of outbound investment and cooperation.

OPPORTUNITIES IN AUSTRALIA

Australia’s healthcare market resembles that found in many developed countries, with well-established and high-quality public healthcare facilities, large government healthcare budgets, and relatively sophisticated funding mechanisms.

The government pays large subsidies for medical services to public hospitals, while patients pay relatively small amounts out of pocket. Almost 70% of total health expenditure is funded by the government.

Healthcare expenditure in Australia has grown faster than population growth and the broader economy. In 2013-14, Australia spent around USD154.6 billion (10% of GDP) on healthcare, 1.8 times higher in real terms than in 2001-02. In comparison, Chinese healthcare spending is only around 5% of GDP. Continued growth in healthcare expenditure is expected, due to Australia’s ageing population and the higher prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Growth can also be attributed to non-demographic factors such as the development of new technologies, pharmaceuticals, and diagnostic and treatment techniques. For patients, better treatment could be obtained for more diseases; and for pharmaceutical companies, demand for pharmaceuticals drives development of the total market. This growth is counterbalanced by the government’s management of healthcare spending through a number of reimbursement schemes and policies.

For healthcare, the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement stipulates that tariffs on pharmaceuticals (including vitamins and health products), previously up to 10%, 商道

澳洲健康市场大有可为 澳大利亚的医疗市场与许多发达国家相似， 有高质量的公共医疗设施、充足的政府医疗资金 和完善的筹资机制。政府对医院的资助充沛，患 者需要自付的 费用相对较少。澳大利亚约70%的医疗开销是 由政府资助的。 澳大利亚的医疗支出的增长高出其经济与人 口增长。2013-2014年，澳大利亚的医疗支出为 1,546亿美元，占到GDP的10%，比2001-2002年 高出1.8倍（剔除通胀因素后）。相较而言，中 国的医疗支出只占到GDP的约5%。 未来，医疗支出仍会继续增加，这主要是因为 一方面澳大利亚已经进入老龄化社会，另一方面 是其非传染性疾病的高发病率。随着新科技、新 药物以及新的诊断治疗方法的开发与使用，这些 非人口因素也在推动医疗支出的持续增加。对患 者而言，更多的疾病可以得到良好的治疗；对于 医药企业而言，药品需求的增长带动了整个市场 的发展。然而，政府则会通过调适报销机制及政 策来控制医疗支出的持续增长。 对医药行业而言，中澳自由贸易协议规定， 将在今后几年逐步取消医药产品（包括维生素及 保健品）曾高达10%的关税。同时，中国政府也 会允许澳大利亚在中国设立全资的医院及养老机 构。此外，澳大利亚的境外投资审核委员会 (FIRB)对非敏感行业的资金审核门槛，从2.32亿 美元提高到了10亿美元，这将会继续增加中国投 资者跨境投资的机会。 医药市场的优势 药品是澳大利亚医疗体系中很重要的组 分，2013-2014年澳大利亚医药支出总额达到 198亿美元。澳大利亚医药市场由许多领先国际 药企在澳的分支公司以及一些有影响力的本土制 药公司组成。在吸引外资药企投资的方面，他们 的主要的优势包括： • 强大的生物医药研发基地，包括药物研发机 构以及领先的大学； H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 8 3

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HEALTH

will be eliminated in the next few years.

Wholly Australian-owned hospitals and aged care institutions are also permitted to be established in China. Furthermore, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) screening threshold for private company investments from China in non-sensitive areas has been raised from USD232 million to USD1 billion, further enhancing opportunities for cross-border investments.

STRENGTH IN PHARMACEUTICALS

Pharmaceuticals are a key part of any healthcare system. With spending of USD19.8 billion in 2013-14, the Australian market is comprised of leading pharmaceutical companies with Australian operations, plus some significant Australianowned companies. When competing for foreign investment, key strengths of this sector include: • a strong biomedical research base in both medical research institutes and leading research-based universities • a developed hospital and medical system with a strong reputation for carrying out high-quality clinical trials • a growing number of emerging biomedical companies with strong R&D capability; a competitive cost base for conducting clinical trials.

These advantages are highlighted by the industry association AusBiotech in their trips to China, and innovative Chinese companies with global ambitions are actively exploring and placing clinical trials in Australia.

TRADITIONAL CHINESE MEDICINE (TCM)

Australia became the first developed country to recognise the legality of Chinese medicine, on July 1, 2012. In general, the Australian government is relatively open to TCM and considers it to be a valid complement to Western medicine, which puts Australia in a leading position among Western countries.

In December 2014, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in the presence of the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, and Australia’s then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, saw an Australian-first, high-quality Chinese medicine integrative clinical service developed in Sydney.

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健康

China’s Tongrentang pharmacy opened its first store in Australia as early as 2004, and will have five stores by April 2016.

LEADERS IN PRIVATE HOSPITALS

Private hospitals in Australia generally have strong management, and enjoy a leading position in remote medicine technology due to Australia’s immense area and sparse population. In addition, the operational requirements for private hospitals in Australia, such as regulation, registration and market promotion, are navigable. Australia also has rich experience in senior (aged care) medical facilities and management, which Chinese companies can learn from.

In 2016, for example, Luye Medical Group purchased Australia’s third largest private hospital operator Healthe Care for USD688 million, and became one of China’s largest international general private hospital groups.

Previously, when Healthscope was seeking investments, it also attracted a significant amount of Chinese investor interest. In addition to direct investment returns, the potential to adopt more efficient clinical practices and transfer these learnings back to China are attractive incremental benefits.

FORGING THE RIGHT PATH

When going abroad, companies should have a view of their objectives in the expansion – is it to conquer new markets, to bring advanced technologies, or for financial returns? Considerations typically should incorporate the following: • Short-term financial return: how to predict the break-even point after entering the new market. Is there a reasonable expectation?

• Long-term development potential: what is the brand development trajectory in the target market for the next five to ten years?

Can the company afford continuous investments in a new market without prominent returns within a given timeframe?

• Risk assessment: some risk factors might limit successful development of the company in the new market; for example, local regulation and policy change.

Building upon these strategies not only helps to identify the most attractive and relevant business and direction, it also allows for clearer decision-making when opportunities arise. 商道

• 发达的医院以及医疗系统，而且有能力实施高 质量的临床试验； • 涌现出越来越多拥有研发优势的生物医疗公 司；在临床开发成本上的竞争优势。 澳大利亚生物技术产业协会AusBiotech在访 华期间强调了这些优势，具有国际视野的中国创 新药企也积极的在澳大利亚进行临床试验的探索 和实施。 中药在澳大利亚的机会 2012年7月1日，澳大利亚成为第一个以 立法方式承认中医药合法地位的发达国家。总体 而言，澳大利亚政府对中医持宽松态度，认为 是对西医的有效补充，这在西方国家是比较超 前的。 2014年12月，中华人民共和国主席习近平和 澳大利亚当任总理托尼·阿博特共同签署了备忘 录。他们共同见证了悉尼第一所高品质的中医诊 所的诞生。 同仁堂早在2005年就在澳大利亚开设了药店， 到2016年4月为止共有5家分店。 澳大利亚私立医院的领头羊 澳大利亚私立医院的整体管理水平非常高， 因为地广人稀，其远程医疗技术走在世界前沿。 另外，澳大利亚针对私立医院制定的法律法规、 注册程序以及市场推广等操作层的要求相对并不 复杂。澳大利亚对老年人的医疗设施与管理经验 丰富，值得中国企业借鉴。 比如，在2016年绿叶医疗集团以6.88亿美元收 购澳大利亚第三大私立医院集团HealtheCare， 并通过这项收购顺利跻身中国最大的国际化的综 合性私人医疗集团行列。早前Healthscope也吸 引了大批中国投资者的眼光。除了直接投资所带 来的回报，有机会学习到更为高效的临床实践， 并把这些经验带回中国对于企业来讲也很有吸引 力，且可以为企业增值。 国际扩张路径的选择 在企业打造国际扩张路径之时，需要对扩张 的目的有一定认识--是为了征服新的市场，带回 先进的技术，还是寻求投资回报？这通常需要从 以下角度考虑： • 近期财务收益：企业如何预计进入新市场后 盈亏的时间节点？是否有合理预期？ • 长期发展潜力：在目标市场未来五至十年的品 牌发展轨迹如何？企业是否能承担持续投入 某个新市场，但回报在一定时间内并不显著？ • 风险考量：有一些风险因素可能会阻碍制约 企业在新市场的成功发展，例如当地法规、政 策变动等因素。 制定有效的战略不仅能帮助发掘最具吸引力及 相关的市场和发展方向，更能在机遇出现的时候 帮助企业做出清晰的决策。

HEALTH

健康

Strengthening Chinese and Australian investment ties Fifteen years after China’s accession to the WTO, China is now clearly integrated into the global economy, first as a result of goods flow, and now in increasing investments and services. In 2000, the Chinese government clearly stated an opening strategy, with the intention to adjust China’s foreign economic development strategy from one that ‘brings in’ technology and resources, to a combination strategy of ‘bring in’ and ‘go global’. This strategy not only contributes to China’s domestic market development, but also benefits the overall global economy.

From 2009-14, the last full year where the data is available, the total value of outbound investment by Chinese companies grew at an average of 16.8% per annum, and exceeded USD100 billion for the first time in 2013. An all-time high of Chinese outbound investment of USD123 billion was reached in 2014, with 192 cross-border M&As accounting for one quarter of the investments.

As a percentage of GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Australia reached 39% in 2014 on the back of continued economic expansion and integration with trading partners, especially in the Asian region.

Australia is an economy that attracts and welcomes foreign investment, and China has responded by investing USD25 billion in Australia in 2014, a 25% CAGR over the past five years, to reach the top five spot among Australia’s investors.

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) enacted in November 2014 will undoubtedly further expand the relationship and strengthen the attractiveness of Australia as an investment and trading partner for China.

China is already Australia’s largest goods export and import partner, with the two-way trade of goods and services valued at USD150 billion in 2014,

accounting for almost one quarter of Australia’s total import/export value.

The agreement enhances China’s access to Australia’s key industries, particularly agriculture, resources and energy – and now healthcare – and is aimed to meet the needs of China’s growing economy.

不断深化的中澳投 资关系 加入WTO十五年以后，中国逐步与国际接轨， 从最初以商品流动为核心到现在不断增加的投 资和服务。2000年，中国政府明确提出开放战 略，有意将中国对外经济发展战略从以“引进 来”为主，调整到“引进来”和“走出去”相 结合的发展战略。这一战略不仅有助于中国本 土发展，同时更有利于世界经济的整体繁荣。 从2009年到2014年，中国企业境外直接投

资总额以年均16.8% 的速度增长，并在2013年 首次超过1,000亿美元。2014年中国企业境外直 接投资达到历史最高的1231.2亿美元，完成跨 境并购192起，涉及交易金额占总境外投资的 四分之一。 2014年，澳大利亚的外商直接投资（FDI） 占到GDP的39%，其增长动力源自经济的持续 发展以及与贸易伙伴，尤其是亚洲投资者日益 紧密的合作。澳大利亚非常吸引和欢迎境外投 资，中国也用实际行动回馈了澳大利亚的欢 迎，2014年中国对澳大利亚投资了250亿美 元，过去5年的年增长率保持在25%，并成功跻 身澳大利亚境外投资者的前五位。 于2014年11月颁布的中澳自由贸易协议无疑 将增加澳大利亚对中国贸易投资伙伴的吸引力 并加深两国的关系。中国已经是澳大利亚最大 的进出口贸易伙伴，2014 年双方的商品及服务 贸易超过了1,500 亿美元，是澳大利亚对外贸易 总额的25%。该协议的签订拓宽了中国企业进 入澳大利亚农业、能源、天然资源等主要行业 的渠道。这些行业因为符合中国经济快速增长 的需要，跟中国投资者的契合度很高。

FDI TO AUSTRALIA BY COUNTRY (2009-14)

澳大利亚外商直接投资（FDI）总量及主要来源

Source: L.E.K

Billions of US$ 10亿美元

700 600 500

CAGR%

611 527

年复合增长率

562

554

565

(2009-14)

5.1 TOTAL 总和 9.3 OTHER 其他

439

-0/5 SWITZERLAND 瑞士

400

12.1 CANADA 加拿大 300

8.9 SINGAPORE 新加坡 24.7 CHINA 中国

200

2.3 NETHERLANDS 荷兰 5.8 JAPAN 日本

100

5.5 UK 英国

0 2009

10

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11

12

13

14

8.8 USA 美国 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 8 5

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We catch up with Olivar Musson, creative director of Musson Jewellers, one of Sydney’s most prestigious bespoke jewellers. He chats all things jewellery, Sydney and family...

Bell & Ross has made aeronautical instrumentation a primary source of inspiration for the design and technology of its timepieces, meaning that it’s watches meet the criteria require by pilots and all users of professional horological instruments. The Vintage Aeronavale marries functionality and elegance. The blue and gold evoke the uniform worn by navel officers, symbolising military excellence and tradition. BRV126 Chronograph $POA, bellross.com

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ODE TO THE PAST 芝柏(GIRARD-PERREGAUX)首度推出 1966经典系列精钢版。采用在芝柏工作室制 作的GP03300机芯，带有日历显示日期、月 份和月相。售价：19,170澳元。 For the first time, Girard-Perregaux has introduced a steel version of its iconic 1966 model. The timepiece features the GP03300 calibre, made in GP workshops, and full calendar with indicators of date, day, month and moon phases. $19,170, monards.com.au

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珠宝设计有什么吸引您的地方？ WHAT IS IT EXACTLY THAT DRAWS YOU TO JEWELLERY DESIGN? 我非常喜爱珠宝设计的雕塑元素。我相信，如果不能成 为珠宝设计师，我就会成为一名建筑师。人们每天都佩 戴着最喜欢的珠宝，而能够为人们生活的重要时刻添加 一份色彩，我非常喜欢这种感觉。 I have a passion for the sculptural element of jewellery design. I believe if I wasn’t a jewellery designer I would be an architect. With our favourite jewellery, we wear it everyday and I cherish that I play a part in these moments in people’s lives. 您的珠宝设计是澳大利亚独具特色的吗？IS WHAT YOU DO UNIQUE IN AUSTRALIA? 当然。我们在悉尼设计和创作的作品占到精品店的90%。 我们的作品虽然属于当代作品，却是永恒的经典。 Definitely. We design and manufacture, in Sydney, 90 per cent of the creations you view in our boutiques. Our pieces are contemporary, yet timeless. 旅行的时候，您喜欢去探索新的地方吗？HOW DO YOU LIKE TO EXPLORE NEW PLACES WHEN YOU TRAVEL? 我喜欢探索新的地方和建筑，因为把自己沉浸在不同的 文化和环境中能够获得很多的灵感。 I want to explore new places and architecture, so much inspiration comes from immersing yourself within different cultures and environments. 您热爱悉尼的什么？WHAT DO YOU LOVE ABOUT SYDNEY? 我认为悉尼是世界上最美丽的城市之一。生活在这样 一个美丽的海港城市是件美妙的事情，她不但干净整 洁，而且给了你自由的空间。I believe sydney is one of the most beautiful cities in the world. Living on such a beautiful harbour is a wonderful thing – it’s cleansing and gives you a freedom of space...

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STYLE 时尚单品 The latest in fashion from the world’s biggest designer brands 来自一些世界最大的设计师 品牌最新的时尚单品。

Master & Dynamic, $POA, masterdynamic.com Gucci, $410, gucci.com Gucci, $3,075, gucci.com

Louis Vuitton, $4,600, au.louisvuitton.com

Louis Vuitton, $890, au.louisvuitton.com

Diesel, $60 shop.diesel.com

Emporio Armani, $790, armani.com/au

Hugo Boss, $POA, hugoboss.com

Lanvin, $POA, lanvin.com

Stylish

Gucci, $690, gucci.com

TRAVELLER Step up your airport style with these essential pieces

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WINE 佳酿

“Pull quote here please...”

A tour of some of Australia’s finest wine regions 澳大利亚一些最好的葡 萄酒产区之旅。

红色情结 对红酒情有独钟并且蓄势以待的中国葡萄酒爱好者，现在把注意力 转向澳大利亚的葡萄园，这里为您介绍三个最负盛名的酒产区。 得益于法国葡萄酒在中国的风靡，尽管中国葡 萄酒消费者比以往更加愿意探索不同种类的葡 萄酒，赤霞珠仍然位列中国最受欢迎葡萄品种 首位。葡萄酒智情机构（Wine Intelligence） 在最近的一项调查中发现，近6个月以来，中国 中高档进口葡萄酒的城市消费者中55%选用了 赤霞珠（较去年的58%，有所下降），紧随其 后的雷司令在同样的消费者群体中选用率为 27%。赤霞珠是酿制大部分高档波尔多葡萄酒 的主要葡萄品种，在中国仍将高居王座。 这一切有着深刻的历史渊源。波尔多葡萄酒 曾在中国掀起阵阵狂潮，并在内地和香港创下 高昂售价。大获成功的澳大利亚葡萄酒纪录片 《红色情结》正是以此为灵感拍摄的，而其中大 部分都是以赤霞珠为主要原料的波尔多左岸葡 萄酒。如今，中国的文化和经济环境发生了翻 天覆地的变化，赤霞珠却仍旧魅力不减。

澳大利亚赤霞珠极少像顶级法国葡萄酒那样 昂贵得高不可攀，凭借其亲民价格和卓越品质 受到当今中国优质葡萄酒消费者的青睐。最顶 级的澳大利亚赤霞珠的结构、酒体优雅度、窖 藏寿命和复杂度，足以媲美优质波尔多葡萄酒。 澳大利亚有三个最负盛名的葡萄酒产区，盛 产赤霞珠和常常与之搭配混酿的葡萄品种—— 梅洛、品丽珠、味而多和马尔贝克。按照当前 的声誉排名，这三个产区依次是玛格丽特河 (Margaret River)，库纳瓦拉(Coonawarra)和 亚拉河谷(Yarra Valley)。到目前为止，玛格丽 特河产区云集了最多高端葡萄酒品牌，库纳瓦 拉产区拥有杰出的酝思酒庄（Wynns）和少量 其它成就斐然的酒庄，亚拉河谷的杰出赤霞珠 生产商则相对较少。 以下为您介绍的三款葡萄酒分别来自这三个 产区，在中国均有销售，敬请品鉴。

BEST OF THE BARREL Peccavi赤霞珠干红葡萄 酒2013（玛格丽特河） 让人心醉的新鲜黑醋栗果香、黑 李子和樱桃与烟薰气息交织缠绕、 带有雪松橡木的气息和花香。在 精美干爽的单宁支撑下，渗透着 深色黑、红莓果般浓郁持久、紧 致均衡的果味精华。

Bowen Estate赤霞珠干红 葡萄酒2014 黑醋栗、桑果、黑李子和雪松/香 草橡木的新鲜香气，洋溢着泥土 香草气息。唇齿间回荡着小黑、 红浆果的香味，强劲的单宁，最 后散发出矿物的味道。

Yeringberg雅伦堡酒庄赤 霞珠混合红葡萄酒2014 紫罗兰、黑醋栗、李子香味丰富 扑鼻，带有纯净的雪松和橡木香 气。法国橡木桶的气息支撑着黑 色水果的果香味，浓郁香气优雅 绵长。 各种深红葡萄酒继续霸占中国市场 Darker red varietals continue to dominate in China

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商道

“Cabernet sauvignon, the key varietal behind most top-end wines from Bordeaux, will take some dethroning.”

RING IN THE REDS

Red obsessed and ready to purchase, China’s wine drinkers are turning their attention to Australian vineyards – with three clear standouts.

Blame it on the French, but cabernet sauvignon remains the most popular wine grape variety in China, despite the fact Chinese wine drinkers are exploring more different wines than ever before. While a recent Wine Intelligence survey found that 55% of all Chinese urban upper-middle-class importedwine drinkers drank cabernet sauvignon in the previous six months (down from 58% the year before), the next closest variety is riesling, which was consumed by 27% of the same audience. Cabernet sauvignon, the key varietal behind most top-end wines from Bordeaux, will take some dethroning.

Historically it all makes sense. The massive rise in Chinese demand for Bordeaux wines and the stratospheric prices once paid in PRC for them – the inspiration behind the successful movie Red Obsession – was in large measure around the cabernet-based wines of Bordeaux’s left bank. Today in China, in a totally different

cultural and economic environment, the allure of cabernet has persisted.

Australian cabernet, because it only rarely attracts the extreme prices of the top-level French, has become a viable and laudable alternative for those seeking to drink well in today’s China. The finest display a structure, elegance, longevity and level of complexity comparable to fine Bordeaux.

Three Australian wine regions stand above the others for cabernet and its related partners of merlot, cabernet franc, petit verdot and malbec. In order of importance at this very moment these are Margaret River, Coonawarra and the Yarra Valley. Margaret River has the largest collection of high-end labels, Coonawarra has the Wynns operation plus a small number of neighbours, while the Yarra Valley boasts a relatively small crowd of outstanding cabernet producers. To the right is one from each region, which can be found in China. 商道

BEST OF THE BARREL Peccavi Cabernet Sauvignon 2013 (Margaret River) A heady, faintly earthy bouquet of fresh cassis, dark plums and cherries knit tightly with smoky, cedary oak, gravelly undertones and bright floral scents.

Underpinned by a crunchy, grainy backbone, its perfectly ripened flavours of black and red berries are backed by cigarboxy oak.

Bowen Estate Cabernet Sauvignon 2014 Penetrative aromas of cassis, mulberries, dark plums and fresh cedar/vanilla oak reveal dusty, faintly herbal nuances, while its palate-staining presence of small black and red berries is framed by an exceptional spine of drying, chalky tannins that culminate in a graphite-like minerality.

Yeringberg Yeringberg Cabernet Blend 2014 Opulent perfume of violets, cassis, dark plums and fresh cedary and faintly cigarboxy oak is both pure and briary.

Supremely long and elegant, its length of dark fruit is underpinned by a firm spine and soaks up its handsome measure of French oak.

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RESTAURANTS 餐厅 Fine dining in Sydney, Melbourne, Shanghai and Beijing 悉尼、墨尔本、上海及北京的高端餐厅。

SET THE BAR 位于北京三里屯SOHO的Noodle Diner是隆小宝 餐饮管理公司的全新力作。其计划于未来三年在 中国开设50间面馆，因此上海设计公司芝作室 （Lukstudio）的陆頴芝应该会愉快地忙上一阵 子，她对传统面馆复杂巧妙的改造让食客和建筑 师赞不绝口。Noodle Diner的内部看起来就像一 个晾面架，钢丝连接着悬挂于天花板上的木条， 垂挂成“U”型。如果想在“晾面架”中用餐， 您必须预订位于二层的包房。对于那些只想正经 吃面的人来说，一楼则布置成食堂风格。

BEIJING 北京

NEW COMERS A restaurant opening in China is not uncommon, but one new spot has Beijingers piling in tighter than a pack of ready-made noodles... 在中国，餐厅开张很平常，但有一家新餐厅让北京人争相 前往的速度可比您吃面条的速度快多了。

BY GEORG 在北京，高级西餐厅比较少见。当有新餐厅而且是如此高质素的餐厅开 张，它无疑已成为人们争相前往的新热点。The Georg是丹麦高端银器品 牌Georg Hensen在北京开设的餐厅，位于玉河河畔的庭院内，采用本地 食材，以西方烹调技巧制作，菜色中增添了几分东方韵味。 The Western fine dining scene in Beijing is relatively small. So when a new restaurant opens up and it’s this good, we’re not hesitant to say it’s vying for the top spot. The Georg is operated by Georg Jensen, the high-end Danish silverware brand. Spread over a renovated courtyard mansion on the Yu River, it includes an art gallery and lounge. Local ingredients are used to create meals crafted by Western techniques, but with an Eastern influence in flavour. Each course is roughly the same size, and opting for the tasting menu provides the best all-round experience. thegeorg.com/en/therestaurant 94 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

Noodle Diner, set in Beijing’s Sanlitun SOHO complex, is the latest offering from the Longxiaobao restaurant group. With ambitious plans to open 50 locations in China over the next three years, Christina Luk of Lukstudio, a Shanghai-based design firm, should be happily busy for a while. Why, you ask? Luk’s sophisticated take on the traditional noodle shop has diners and architect nuts singing her praises. The inside of Noodle Diner looks just like a noodle rack; cables swoop in the shape of a ‘U’, attached to bars that are suspended from the ceiling. To dine among the complex ‘noodle rack’ you’ll have to book the second-floor’s private room. Shop 1-122, Sanlitun SOHO, lukstudiodesign.com

SYDNEY 悉尼

People are flocking to Sydney Airport’s T1 International Departures – not just to make their flight, but also to sneak in a pre-flight bite whipped up by some of the world’s leading chefs and franchises... 人们蜂拥至悉尼机场T1国际离港航站楼，不仅仅是为了赶 上飞机，更是为了可以在起飞前抽空品尝一些世界名厨的 手艺以及知名餐厅的美味佳肴……

ON THE FLY 来自墨尔本高档餐厅维德蒙的大厨香农·贝内特 （Shannon Bennett）将在悉尼机场开设Benny Burger餐厅，供应各色美味汉堡。餐厅所使用的 食材均为良心采购、绿色环保的农产品。 Shannon Bennett, of Melbourne fine-diner Vue de Monde, will launch Benny Burger. Think delicious burgers without the guilt. The restaurant will focus of ethically sourced produce with minimal environmental impact.

JOE & THE JUICE 丹麦果汁吧品牌Joe & The Juice在悉尼机场开设 了澳新地区第一家店面，供应各种新鲜果汁组 合，为您带来无与伦比的清新体验。 Contemporary Danish juice bar brand Joe & The Juice will provide an extensive selection of fresh juice combinations to boost wellbeing pre-flight – the first and only location Down Under.

THE BISTRO 明星厨师沃尔夫冈·帕克（Wolfgang Puck）从 美国抵达悉尼机场，隆重推出The Bistro餐厅。在 航班起飞前，您可以在这享用现代意大利美食。

MELBOURNE 墨尔本

Sydney Airport has also flown in celebrity chef Wolfgang Puck from America to launch The Bistro. Unwind before your flight in a relaxed Italian trattoria-style restaurant. sydneyairport.com.au

STICKING TO TRADITION 位于Williamstwon的Hobson’s Bay酒店现在成为两层高 的Hellenic酒店。底层是以蓝、白色为主调，能容纳120人 的餐厅。上层是对外开放的酒吧，和带有暖气和城市景观 的大露台，为您提供传统的希腊佳肴。 Hellenic Hotel is split over two levels in what was once Hobson’s Bay Hotel, in Williamstown. Downstairs, decked out in blue and white, is a 120-seat restaurant.

Upstairs is the public bar, complete with a large heated terrace with city views. Expect traditional Greek dishes such as souvlakis, saganaki and rice pudding. hellenicrepublic.com.au/williamstown

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 95

HOTELS 酒店

UP AND COMING 即将来袭

Private beaches, personal butlers and sky-high lounges – we’ve picked out some of the most luxurious hotels Australia and China have to offer 私家海滩、私人管家服务和高入云端的餐厅—— 我们精心细选澳中两地最能为您带来奢华体验的酒店。

WELCOME HOME

It’s what so many hotels strive to achieve, but often fall 难以实现。打造“家一般的温馨感觉” short: re-creating that ‘homely feel’. But Durham House 并不容易，但Durham House将让您欲 will have you wanting to move straight in. Set in a 1920s 罢不能。Durham House是一间位于布 worker’s cottage that has been gutted and revamped, 里斯班文化区——西区（West End） Durham House is a guesthouse located in Brisbane’s 的家庭旅馆，原为一间20世纪20年代 cultural precinct, West End. If you’re travelling in a group 的工人小屋，被损毁后翻新而成。如果 you can book out the entire house, which sleeps six, or 是团体出游，您可以预订整间房屋，供 if you’re escaping for a romantic weekend for two you 6人入住；如果想享受属于两个人的浪 can just reserve a single room. The details are what set 漫周末，您可以只预订一个房 Durham House apart. Each room is perfectly groomed 间。Durham House与众不同之处在于 with fresh white walls and textured furnishings, looking 细节。每个房间都精心搭配洁白的墙壁 like they’re straight from the pages of an interior design 和有质感的家具，看上去和室内设计杂 magazine. Spend lazy afternoons soaking in the 志中的情景如出一辙。在环绕走廊中沐 Queensland sun from the wrap-around verandah. 浴昆士兰州的阳光，度过慵懒的午后时 From $800 per night, durhamhouse.com.au 很多酒店都力求营造家的感觉，但往往

SHERATON GRAND HANGZHOU BINJIANG HOTEL 杭州滨江银泰喜来登大酒店 坐落于杭州商务区，这家新酒店拥有301间 客房和套房。 Located in the business district of Hangzhou, this new hotel offers 301 rooms and suites. starwoodhotels.com

光吧。每晚800澳元起。

KEMPINSKI HOTEL FUZHOU 福州泰禾凯宾斯基酒店 福州市晋安商务区将迎来327间客房的福州 泰禾凯宾斯基酒店。 The capital of Fujian welcomes the 327-room Kempinski Hotel Fuzhou to the business district of Jin An. Try the outdoor seafood restaurant on the 22nd and 23rd floors. kempinski.com

LANGHAM HAIKOU 海口朗廷酒店 中国第8家朗廷酒店即将开业。酒店位于海 南省海口市，拥有249间奢华客房。 The eighth Langham Hotel to hit China, this 249-room luxury resort is found in Hainan’s capital. There are five restaurants and bars serving international cuisines. langhamhotels.com

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商道

Developing The future of Australia China Business

â&#x20AC;&#x153;When you become an ACBC member you are welcomed into a diverse network of influential and dynamic businesses, large and small.â&#x20AC;?

Become a member today www.acbc.com.au NSW

NT

QLD

SA

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LATEST DEALS 近期主要的商业地产交易 CHINA-AUSTRALIA ANNOUNCED M&A VOLUME – FULL YEAR 中澳两国已宣布的并购总额－全年 Year Deal Value

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

RECENT MAJOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEALS 最新主要商业物业的交易

Information supplied by Dealogic No. of Deals

$6,919m

NEW SOUTH WALES 新南威尔士洲

71 58 71 62 $10,615m 45 39 51 21

$2,996m $8,935m $8,959m $5,039m $8,712m $1,258m

中国企业对澳企进行收购的总额－全年 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

$6,480m

$10,293m $4,728m $8,375m $1,245m

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

QUEENSLAND 昆士兰洲 ADDRESS 地址: International Beach Resort, Surfers Paradise PRICE 价格: $65m BUYER 买家: Private investor This 22-level hotel occupies a 3,833sqm parcel with frontages to both The Esplanade and Surfers Paradise Blvd.

VICTORIA 维多利亚洲 ADDRESS 地址: 11-17 Dorcas Street, South Melbourne PRICE 价格: $23.2m BUYER 买家: Private A five-level commercial office building with protected views across the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Shrine of Remembrance. 一栋5层高的商业办公楼，带有皇家 植物园和战争纪念馆的景色。

Information supplied by Dealogic

$439m $398m $267m $43m $322m $311m $337m $13m

4,509平方米的商业大楼已租给 SNOOZE公司和NATIONAL STORAGE公司。

拥有54间客房的酒店坐落于悉尼北部 古老的渡口小镇WISEMANS FERRY。 这个18公顷的项目还包括比 邻的一块开发用地。

AUSTRALIA CORPS’ ACQUISITION INTO CHINA – FULL YEAR 澳大利亚企业对中企进行收购的总额－全年

ADDRESS 地址: 283-285 Burwood Road Hawthorn PRICE 价格: $17m BUYER 买家: LYZ Property Group 4,509sqm commercial building leased to Snooze and National Storage.

ADDRESS 地址: 1Retreat at Wisemans resort, Wisemans Ferry PRICE 价格: Just under $10m BUYER 买家: Private investor 54-room resort in the historic township of Wisemans Ferry north of Sydney.

The 18-hectare property includes an adjacent parcel of development land.

52 46 55 54 40 30 41 20

$8,668m $8,916m

面积达24,000平方米的项目包括两个 仓库占地10,632平方米和10,000平方 米的停机坪。

位于悉尼环形码头，前身是可口可乐总 部，预计将建19层高的奢华公寓楼。

Information supplied by Dealogic

$2,598m

PRICE 价格: $10.8m BUYER 买家: UA Holdings This 24,000sqm site includes two warehouses covering 10,632sqm, as well as 10,000sqm of hardstand.

ADDRESS 地址: 71 Macquarie St, Sydney PRICE 价格: $158.5m BUYER 买家: Macrolink Group The former Coca-Cola Amatil headquarters in Sydney’s Circular Quay – set to yield a 19-storey luxury apartment tower.

CHINA CORPS’ ACQUISITION INTO AUSTRALIA – FULL YEAR

楼高22层的酒店占地3,833平方米， 带有THEESPLANADE和SURFERS PARADISE BLVD两个出入口。

SOUTH AUSTRALIA 南澳 ADDRESS 地址: Red Hill Estate, Mornington Peninsula PRICE 价格: Just over $5m BUYER 买家: Fullshare Group 17.4-hectare property on Shoreham Road in Red Hill South, in the renowned cool-climate wine region. Produces highly regarded chardonnay, pinot noir, shiraz and other varieties under the Red Hill Estate and The Bench labels.

ADDRESS 地址: 216-222 City Road & 107-117 Queensbridge Street, Southbank PRICE 价格: $32.3m BUYER 买家: Private A 1,856sqm landholding with dual street frontage. Strong short term income generated from existing high-quality residential and commercial improvements.

19 12 16 08 05 08 10 01

Information supplied by CBRE

位于著名的凉爽气候葡萄酒产区—红丘 陵南部SHOREHAM路的17.4公顷的 项目。生产出红丘陵酒庄和THE BENCH品牌旗下，获极高评价的霞多 丽、黑比诺、西拉等多个品种的葡 萄酒。

一块1,856平方米、双面临街的用地。 现有的高端住宅和商业质素提升，带来 强劲的短期收益。

ADDRESS 地址: 11-13 Chambers Road, Altona North

RECENT M&A DEALS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN AND CHINESE INTERESTS

Information supplied by Dealogic

最新中澳两国的购并交易

Pending 待定 FEB

2016 JAN 05 JAN

27 JAN

US$21m

US$13m

MAR

APR

MAY

Completed 已成交

2016 JUL

3 FEB

14 FEB

13 MAR

15 MAR

19 MAR

13 MAY

US$27m

US$189m

US$755m

US$7m

US$120m

US$2m

TARGET 目标公司: TARGET 目标公司: Reed Industrial Minerals Taralga Wind Farm Pty Ltd (18.1%) Pty Ltd

TARGET 目标公司: TARGET 目标公司: SECUREcorp Pty Ltd; Virgin Australia Holdings Lawmate Pty Ltd; Video Ltd (13.0783%) ACQUIRER 收购公司: Alarm Technology Pty Ltd ACQUIRER 收购公司: ACQUIRER 收购公司: ENN Ecological Holdings ACQUIRER 收购公司: ACQUIRER 收购公司: ACQUIRER 收购公司: Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium State Power Investment Co Ltd ACQUIRER 收购公司: Hainan Traffic Control GCL System Integration Amcor Ltd Co Ltd Corp China Security & Fire Technology Co Ltd Holding Co Ltd ACQUIRER 收购公司: INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: Co Ltd Fullshare Holdings Ltd INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: Chemicals 化学制品 Oil & Gas Mining 矿业 Utility & Energy INDUSTRY 所在行业: Technology 科技 Transportation INDUSTRY 所在行业: 石油及天然气 公用事业及能源 Professional Services 交通运输 Real Estate/Property TARGET 目标公司: Fullshare International (Australia) Turtle Point Hotel Pty Ltd (and 13 other companies)

TARGET 目标公司: Xinhui Xinlida Polythene Co Ltd - BPI China

TARGET 目标公司: Santos Ltd (11.72%)

TARGET 目标公司: One Stop Warehouse Pty Ltd (51%)

专业服务

房地产/物业

INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY

98 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

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Real Market Benefit

Westpac is at the forefront of RMB internationalisation, to support growth in the China corridor for Australasian companies.

We understand how important access to the Greater China market is for our customers.

That’s why we’re at the forefront of RMB internationalisation.

Together with being a leading Market-Maker for NZD/CNY1 and a leader in Trade Finance2, with an AUD/CNY Market-Maker licence, a China Derivatives licence, and strength in local market expertise, we’re supporting more customers doing business in China.

We’re also sharing our insights through publications such as the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey, the Westpac-BREE China Resources Quarterly and WIB IQ, to help our customers make informed decisions about the future of their business.

To discover how Westpac can provide your business with greater trade and financial markets access in China, contact our RMB Business Specialist, Natalie Antoine at nantoine@westpac.com.au

No.1

Maker

Foundational

No.1

Leader

No.1

NZD/CNY Market-Maker in China Best Trade Finance Bank in Australia2

AUD/CNY Market-Maker in China Ranked as the world’s most sustainable bank3

Participant in the Sydney Offshore RMB Hub

Best Local Trade Finance Bank in Australia4

Source: 1. China Foreign Exchange Trade System as at 31 May 2016. 2. The Asian Banker Transaction Banking Awards 2016. 3. Dow Jones Sustainability Index 2015, 2014 and seven previous years.

4. GTR Asia Leaders in Trade, 2015 adjudicated by the GTR Editorial Board. Westpac Institutional Bank is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 AFSL 2337 14 (“Westpac”).

The services and products described in this material are provided in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation and may not be available in all countries. New Zealand: In New Zealand Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac or Westpac New Zealand Limited (NZBN 942 903 432 4622) (“WNZL”). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product or service. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz. Both entities are registered banks in New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. U.K.: Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106), and is authorised and regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority in Australia. WBC is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority. WBC is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority in the United Kingdom. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.

China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India: Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Westpac Hong Kong Branch holds a banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Westpac Hong Kong branch also holds a licence issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activity. Westpac Shanghai and Beijing Branches hold banking licences and are subject to supervision by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). Westpac Mumbai Branch holds a banking licence from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and is subject to regulation and supervision by the RBI. U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licenced branch, regulated by the Office of Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a brokerdealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). WBC774_HBV_A1