George Washington Region CommunityViz Model Technical Document by City Explained, Inc.

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model | v. 2.0

Technical Document

April 6, 2016

Table of Contents  General Overview  Model Documentation  Technical Appendix

Section A Section B Section C

Section A: General Overview

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Your Vision, Our Future was a scenario planning initiative started in 2009 to develop socioeconomic data for the George Washington Region, which was used in the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model v. 3.0 to forecast future travel conditions and the 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan to prioritize available transportation funding for the region. It confirmed stronger linkages between land use (demand), urban form (design), and transportation (supply) could significantly improve the efficiency of the regional transportation system; while also promoting a variety of local planning initiatives underway — revitalization of cities and towns, suburban placemaking, rural preservation and protecting the natural environment — to make the region more livable and economically-viable. Central to Your Vision, Our Future was the notion that those in the region should guide its growth. And government at all levels, working with property owners and the private sector, could develop new ideas to change the direction current trends were taking the region in terms of development, mobility and funding shortfalls. The bottom-up approach to regional planning demonstrated in Your Vision, Our Future led to more precise socioeconomic data, starting with data for 152,288 parcels and regulatory tools for seven local governments to ‘quilt together’ data more reflective of reality. Tying development potential to local plans and ordinances and safeguarding the unique height, bulk and density controls enforced by local governments better estimated build-out potential and increased confidence in the results among member jurisdictions. Officials for the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (FAMPO) committed to repeat the scenario planning process started under Your Vision, Our Future to coincide with future updates to the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. A revised scenario planning tool, the George

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Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0, was developed in 2016 to allocate socioeconomic data over multiple horizon periods (2010 through 2045); taking advantage of new features in the software to improve overall model performance and streamline internal scripts and processes by combining the region into a single model area. The George Washington Region CommunityViz Model Technical Document summaries the study area, growth scenarios under study, analysis tools and model outcomes that will support other FAMPO transportation planning studies or processes being completed now or in the future. The document is organized into three main sections: General Overview ― A brief overview of the study area, scenario planning and scenario planning tools, linkage to other FAMPO analysis tools, alternative growth scenarios under study, and ideas for moving forward. Model Documentation ― A summary of the scenario planning model created using CommunityViz software; including data needs, model architecture, theory and features behind components of the model, data output and calibration activities. Technical Appendix ― A compilation of specific data, tables, maps, equations and assumptions used to create the scenario planning model in CommunityViz software. Information in the appendix is useful for maintaining the current George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 and/or adapting it for other scenario planning initiatives contemplated in the future. Several other documents supporting the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 are available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization: Place Type Summary Document for Your Vision, Our Future; Your Vision, Our Future Alternative Growth Scenarios Summary Document; and George

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Â Washington Region Scenario Planning Study Final Summary Document.

Study Area Description The George Washington Region represents 1,429 square miles in four counties. Political jurisdictions in the area include: King George, Caroline, Spotsylvania, and Stafford Counties as well as the City of Fredericksburg and the Towns of Bowling Green and Port Royal.

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The region shares a rich history, environmental assets, military presence and geography within the super region extending between Washington, D.C. and Richmond, VA. The iconic center for the area is Historic Downtown Fredericksburg, located along the Rappahannock River. Rural development patterns still prevail throughout the region, characterized by low-density development, working farms and two-lane, farm-to-market roads. More suburban development patterns are focused along

Map A1: Study Area Map for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 April 6, 2016

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

the Interstate 95/US 1 and US 17/VA Highway 3 corridors in Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties or around NSWC Dahlgren in King George County. Several other areas in the region are protected as permanent open space; safeguarding national battlefield parks, national park service lands, or environmentally-sensitive lands along the Rappahannock and Potomac Rivers. These areas help define the region, binding it together and blurring political boundaries, and make it a very unique place in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Anticipated Growth Trends Growth is expected to accelerate through the longterm planning horizon because of the region’s affordable housing, proximity to jobs in Washington, D.C. and Richmond, VA, and emerging business centers fueled by military spending and the decentralization of federal government agencies and services. Forecasters anticipate 617,340 people will call the George Washington Region home by 2040; an increase of 88% from 2010. Employment is expected to

increase to 253,180, an increase of 69% from 2010.

Scenario Planning Overview Scenario planning represents the next generation of analytical processes created to evaluate the influence of different development types, locations, patterns and intensities on the efficiency of a proposed transportation system. Visualization of the interaction between land use, urban form and transportation decisions, as well as the causational factors that explain the push-pull relationship between them, provides community leaders with the information needed to evaluate the consequences of potential actions. Building on this momentum, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and other federal agencies are actively promoting the use of scenario planning by state departments of transportation, metropolitan planning organizations and local governments to better integrate transportation and land use decisions for

Table A1: Anticipated Growth for the George Washington Region, 2010 – 2040

Source: FAMPO Regional Travel Demand Model, v.3, Land Use File 2010N)

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What is CommunityViz? CommunityViz is an extension of ESRI’s ArcGIS desktop software that facilitates the visualization and comparison of alternative development scenarios. It was originally developed by the Orton Family Foundation, a non-profit group that focuses on technology and tools for more-informed community decision-making. There are two components of CommunityViz software. The first is Scenario 360, which is a two-dimensional map and data analysis component of the software. It adds the functionality of a spatial spreadsheet to ArcGIS for Desktop software, similar to how a spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel handles numerical data. Dynamic calculations embedded in the spatial spreadsheet are controlled by user-written formulas that change value as referenced input values change. The impact of physical development or policy decisions under consideration may be measured side-by-side in two or more growth scenarios contemplated in the software. The second component of CommunityViz software, Scenario 3D, is a visualization tool that constructs threedimensional models of buildings, roads, landscapes, or entire communities using two-dimensional information generated in the Scenario 360 analysis. More information on CommunityViz and its capabilities for regional planning is available on their website (www.communityviz.com) or The Planner’s Guide to CommunityViz published by the American Planning Association in 2011.

preparing a Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). Evaluating the relationship between land use, urban form, and regional travel behavior in a scenario planning analysis produces several benefits. When considered together, decisions and investments regarding all three elements can have a significant impact on the George Washington Region: 

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The impacts to sensitive land uses may be minimized when facilities identified for transportation investments are located after considering appropriate land use patterns and development intensities for the area. Prime locations for development may be stimulated if transportation investments consider available capacity or appropriate mobility options.

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Complementary activities may be placed next to existing or planned transportation infrastructure, making the most of land use opportunities and dedicated transportation investments.

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The quantity and location of travel demand may be influenced by land use decisions, making the possibility of real choices for various modes of travel both accessible and attractive.

Ultimately, the scenarios themselves are fictitious stories about the future. They are not forecasts or predictions, but possible futures that could come to pass based on what already exists, emerging trends, or the community’s desires to change course for the future. The essential requirement of any growth scenario was that it be plausible, within the realm of what exists or what could be.

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Relationship to the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model FAMPO is the regional transportation body responsible for developing a safe, convenient and effective multimodal transportation system. The ability to plan effectively for the area depends largely on their ability to anticipate future needs and prioritize available transportation funding. One of the tools available for studying long-term impacts to the regional transportation system is the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model, which is a computer program that forecasts future year demand on existing and planned transportation facilities using anticipated land use, demographic information and travel patterns unique to the region. Planning horizon years in the travel demand model consider conditions five, 10, 20 and 30 years beyond base year conditions. Approximating future year conditions on the transportation system helps FAMPO officials assess the implications of growth, compare alternative transportation solutions, and provide a framework for measuring the impact of policy decisions. The foundation for the FAMPO regional travel demand model is socioeconomic data — including population, housing, and employment estimates — organized into distinct geographic subareas referred to as traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Collectively, this information represents the assumed development potential for the George Washington Region. Demand on the transportation system (trip generation) is calculated directly from the model’s socioeconomic data. Before Your Vision, Our Future was completed in 2009, updating socioeconomic data for the FAMPO model was time intensive, and the topdown, manual process created significant challenges for forecasting and allocating future year growth patterns in the region. Specifically, it 1) created a miss-match between demand and supply statistics for growth allocation in some Pg. 5

growth categories and in some parts of the region, 2) marginalized some of the unique conditions for cities and towns in the region, and 3) used a nonstandardized methodology among jurisdictions for translating local plans and ordinances into buildout potential for the region. The manual process also limited the ability to evaluate the effects of alternative development patterns on the efficiency of the transportation system. Ultimately, the software tools and steering committee used for Your Vision, Our Future afforded the opportunity to study five distinct growth scenarios for evaluating the relationship between land use, urban form, and travel behavior. Alternative development scenarios validated the planning process and built support (both empirical and political) for the preferred growth scenario used to develop socioeconomic data for the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model, v. 3.0. FAMPO officials will use the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 to allocate socioeconomic data (over multiple horizon periods) for future runs of the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model.

Relationship to the Metropolitan Transportation Plan The preferred growth scenario prepared for Your Vision, Our Future — community plans — met federal rules and requirements for updating the Long Range Transportation Plan. Specifically, it considered land use and development controls reflected in adopted local government plans and ordinances for preparing the document. Data and tools for the preferred growth scenario informed the LRTP planning process, and were useful for identifying, prioritizing and scheduling certain transportation projects included in the 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Participants in transportation planning process for the LRTP also noted how reassuring the bottomup approach and alternative growth scenarios Final Document

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developed in Your Vision, Our Future were for building confidence in the transportation planning process, and pointed to both for justifying recommendations in the 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. In future years, FAMPO officials will use socioeconomic data allocated in the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 (and the transportation analysis tools that depend on socioeconomic data for their performance) to prepare the region’s Metropolitan Transportation Plan.

should be made to the tool to keep it relevant and responsive to needs in the region. Subsequent sections in the technical document explain all of the data and components created for the CommunityViz model. It is assumed FAMPO staff will run and adapt the model (independent of a consultant) in future years using the information presented herein and their increasing command of the software.

Alternative Growth Scenarios The project team prepared four alternative growth scenarios for building the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0. Each scenario was different enough to pose real choices for how the region could develop under one or more planning initiatives. The four alternative growth scenarios include:    

Community Plans Region of Telecommuters Thinking Cars All-in-Transit

A brief summary of the growth scenarios is provided on pages 7 through 14. An analysis of transportation impacts (and their trade-offs) for each of the growth scenarios is summarized in a report entitled Your Vision, Our Future: George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study – Phase II. A copy of the report is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Moving Forward The George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 takes advantage of tools and processes available in the software today to quickly allocate future year socioeconomic data over multiple horizon periods. Continued updates, both in terms of input data and model scripts, April 6, 2016

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Community Plans Growth Scenario The Community Plans Growth Scenario contemplates how the region might develop if city and county comprehensive plans are fully implemented. Preferred development types, patterns, locations and intensities recommended in the local plans vary from rural to suburban to urban for different parts of the region. Common features of the growth scenario include: concentrated development areas (especially along the Interstate 95 and CSX rail corridors), limited infrastructure investment outside designated service areas, preservation of working farms, and compatible land uses near military bases. (Note: A large-scale,

printable version of the map on page 8 is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.)

Land Use Distribution at Full Build-Out of the Region 100%

100%

56%

16% 6%

15% 4%

Open Space

Rural Living

Suburban Neighborhoods

2% Suburban Centers

Walkable Neighborhoods

Walkable Centers

Special Districts

Notes: Open Space = Preserved Open Space Rural Living = Rural Living, Working Farm & Rural Cross Roads Suburban Neighborhoods = Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood, Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood, Mobile Home Community & Multifamily Neighborhood Suburban Centers = Suburban Commercial Center, Suburban Office Center, Light Industrial & Heavy Industrial Walkable Neighborhoods = Urban Neighborhood & Mixed-Use Neighborhood Walkable Centers = Town Center, Transit-Oriented Development & Metropolitan Center Special Districts = Civic & Institutional Facilities, Military Base & Regional Airport

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CommunityViz Model Boundary County Boundary Interstate US/VA Highway Water Bodies

Urban Neighborhood

Civic & Institutional Facilities

Preserved Open Space

Multifamily Neighborhood

Military Base

Rural Living

Light Industrial

Regional Airport

Working Farm

Heavy Industrial

Mixed-Use Neighborhood

Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood

Rural Cross Roads

Transit-Oriented Development

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood

Suburban Commercial Center

Town Center

Mobile Home Community

Suburban Office Center

Metropolitan Center

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Region of Telecommuters Growth Scenario The Region of Telecommuters Growth Scenario contemplates how the region might develop if significant numbers of people in the labor force were able to shift from traditional (drive-to) work situations to telecommuting for satisfying their daily employment routines and responsibilities (assumes wide-spread access to reliable, highspeed internet service). Working from home would reduce home-to-work and work-to-home trips on the regional transportation system in both the AM and PM peak periods, which could eliminate or delay future road widening projects.

mimic those recommended in the Community Plans Growth Scenario. (Note: A large-scale, printable version of the map on page 10 is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.)

Development locations, types, patterns and intensities in the growth scenario are assumed to Land Use Distribution at Full Build-Out of the Region 100%

100%

56%

16% 6%

15% 4%

Open Space

Rural Living

Suburban Neighborhoods

2% Suburban Centers

Walkable Neighborhoods

Walkable Centers

Special Districts

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CommunityViz Model Boundary County Boundary Interstate US/VA Highway Water Bodies

Urban Neighborhood

Civic & Institutional Facilities

Preserved Open Space

Multifamily Neighborhood

Military Base

Rural Living

Light Industrial

Regional Airport

Working Farm

Heavy Industrial

Mixed-Use Neighborhood

Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood

Rural Cross Roads

Transit-Oriented Development

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood

Suburban Commercial Center

Town Center

Mobile Home Community

Suburban Office Center

Metropolitan Center

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Thinking Cars Growth Scenario The Thinking Cars Growth Scenario contemplates how the region might develop if automotive technologies are advanced to a point where more capacity is available in the existing transportation system to accommodate new vehicle trips (i.e., higher travel speeds or timed speeds to eliminate congestion, more efficient/coordinated intersection movements, reduced following distance criteria, optimum routing based on congestion levels, etc.). version of the map on page 12 is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.)

Development locations, types, patterns and intensities in the growth scenario are assumed to mimic those recommended in the Community Plans Growth Scenario. (Note: A large-scale, printable Land Use Distribution at Full Build-Out of the Region 100%

100%

56%

16% 6%

15% 4%

Open Space

Rural Living

Suburban Neighborhoods

2% Suburban Centers

Walkable Neighborhoods

Walkable Centers

Special Districts

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CommunityViz Model Boundary County Boundary Interstate US/VA Highway Water Bodies

Urban Neighborhood

Civic & Institutional Facilities

Preserved Open Space

Multifamily Neighborhood

Military Base

Rural Living

Light Industrial

Regional Airport

Working Farm

Heavy Industrial

Mixed-Use Neighborhood

Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood

Rural Cross Roads

Transit-Oriented Development

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood

Suburban Commercial Center

Town Center

Mobile Home Community

Suburban Office Center

Metropolitan Center

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

All-in-Transit Growth Scenario The All-in-Transit Growth Scenario contemplates how the region might develop if initiatives are enacted to shift a significant number of vehicle trips to transit trips (i.e., regional bus, express bus or commuter rail). Government investment in the transportation system would focus on transit technology and infrastructure, and preferred development patterns and intensities in local government plans and policies would favor transit-oriented development.

accommodate a portion of new growth in existing urban areas (i.e., infill development or redevelopment); leaving more undeveloped land for open space and agriculture uses.

Development in compact, transit-oriented activity centers could vary in scale, use and intensity; represented by rural hamlets, community centers, employment centers or town centers located throughout the region. Communities would Land Use Distribution at Full Build-Out of the Region 100%

100%

Common features of the growth scenario include: concentrated development areas, land preservation outside developed centers, a variety of walkable development types and intensities, and more travel options (i.e., walking, bicycle and transit) for meeting daily needs. (Note: A largescale, printable version of the map on page 14 is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.) 100%

100%

56%

13% 6%

15% 4%

Open Space

Rural Living

Suburban Neighborhoods

5% Suburban Centers

Walkable Neighborhoods

Walkable Centers

Special Districts

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CommunityViz Model Boundary County Boundary Interstate US/VA Highway Water Bodies

Urban Neighborhood

Civic & Institutional Facilities

Preserved Open Space

Multifamily Neighborhood

Military Base

Rural Living

Light Industrial

Regional Airport

Working Farm

Heavy Industrial

Mixed-Use Neighborhood

Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood

Rural Cross Roads

Transit-Oriented Development

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood

Suburban Commercial Center

Town Center

Mobile Home Community

Suburban Office Center

Metropolitan Center

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Section B: Model Documentation

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

This section of the document summarizes the scenario planning model created for the George Washington Region using CommunityViz software. General topics addressed include: data needs, model architecture, theory and features behind components of the model, data output and calibration activities.

CommunityViz Software CommunityViz is an extension of ESRI’s ArcGIS desktop software that facilitates the visualization and comparison of alternative development scenarios. It was originally developed by the Orton Family Foundation, a non-profit group that focuses on technology and tools for more informed community decision-making. There are two components of CommunityViz software. The first is Scenario 360, which is a two-dimensional map and data analysis component of the software. It adds the functionality of a spatial spreadsheet to ArcGIS for Desktop software, similar to how a spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel handles numerical data. Dynamic calculations embedded in the spatial spreadsheet are controlled by user-written formulas that change value as referenced input values change. The impact of physical development or policy decisions under consideration may be measured side-by-side in two or more growth scenarios contemplated in the software. The second component of CommunityViz software, Scenario 3D, is a visualization tool that

constructs three-dimensional models of buildings, roads, landscapes or entire communities using two-dimensional information generated in the Scenario 360 analysis. More information on CommunityViz and its capabilities for regional planning is available on their website (www.communityviz.com) or The Planner’s Guide to CommunityViz published by the American Planning Association in 2011.

System Requirements CommunityViz is an extension for all levels of ESRI’s ArcGIS for Desktop software (Basic, Standard or Advanced). The current version, CommunityViz v. 5.0, requires ArcGIS for Desktop v. 10.2 or greater. Other software requirements include Windows 7 or 8, Microsoft .Net Framework 3.5 or above, and Windows DirectX 9.0c or higher (required for running Scenario 3D only). Minimum, preferred and ideal hardware configurations for running the software are summarized in Table B1.

Key Terms & Definitions CommunityViz uses several terms inside the software to organize data, build equations and present results. Knowing these terms and how they relate to each other is critical for updating (or expanding capabilities) in the CommunityViz model for the George Washington Region. A brief summary of key terms used in the software is

Table B1: Basic System Requirements for Running CommunityViz Software System Requirement RAM Processor Available Hard Disk Space Three-Button Standard Mouse Dedicated Graphics Card, Minimum Texture Memory Pg. 15

Minimum 512 MB 750 MHz 1 GB Yes 32 MB

Preferred 1 GB 1 GHz 5 GB Yes 64 MB

Ideal 1+ GB 2+ GHz 5+ GB Yes 128+ MB Final Document

provided below. See the Help Menu in CommunityViz for more information.

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Attribute data may be exported from CommunityViz to other software platforms (e.g., Microsoft Excel) for reporting or other analyses.

Analysis Assumption An analysis is the term used in CommunityViz to describe a project file; similar to a Microsoft Word document or Excel spreadsheet. It includes the map data, scenarios, calculations and data for the work you are doing.

Data Data includes all of the shapefiles, raster (grid) files or tables referenced in an analysis. CommunityViz uses a file geodatabase structure to store data that is dynamic (all layers that contain at least one Scenario 360 formula). Non-dynamic data is stored in the analysis outside of the geodatabase. Data layers that are dynamic may refer to one or more other data layers outside the analysis geodatabase for computing attribute or indicator values.

Map Feature A feature represents the individual point, line or polygon on a work map. Many features in the same data set depict geographic information. Features and the data associated with them are represented by rows in an attribute table.

Attribute Attributes are fields (columns) in a spatial or numeric table that describe the characteristics associated with features in a data set. Each feature is assigned a value for each field in the table, which may be stored directly in the table cell or referenced from an external lookup table. Static attributes do not change values within the analysis. Dynamic attributes update automatically using formulas written in CommunityViz that respond to changes made in other areas of the analysis.

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Assumptions are used as one input to capture the values, conditions or opinions important to an analysis. They are often referenced in the formula for dynamic attributes, which update automatically every time the assumption values change. Assumption values may be numeric, text or a yes/no format. Assumptions may also be fixed or variable. A fixed assumption may not be changed in the analysis, and will affect all development scenarios the same way. A variable assumption may be changed in the analysis using a slider bar, choice button or drop-down list. It can vary across different development scenarios.

Indicator Indicators are impact or performance measures that apply to an entire scenario. They summarize conditions using a single statistic similar to the “field summarize” function in ArcGIS. Results are displayed in charts or tables for monitoring conditions inside CommunityViz, and often become the criteria for ranking growth alternatives in a scenario planning process. Indicators update automatically using formulas written in the software that respond to changes made in other areas of the analysis. Indicator values may be exported from CommunityViz to other software platforms (e.g., Microsoft Excel) for reporting or other analyses.

Charts Values for indicators or assumptions in CommunityViz are displayed using charts. They update automatically within the analysis and display their previous values for comparison. Data Pg. 16

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may be presented by item, active scenario or across all scenarios. Charts may be displayed in bar, line, pie, point, doughnut or stacked formats. Threshold lines may be used in combination with charts to determine if a goal, target or constraint condition has been reached because of changes tested for the scenario.

Categories Categories are used to organize groups of attributes, assumptions, indicators or charts in the analysis. They may be filtered or sorted for a larger analysis to keep track of information.

Scenarios CommunityViz is capable of analyzing one or more development scenarios simultaneously. All scenarios contain the same map layers, static attributes, formulas for dynamic attributes, assumptions, indicators and charts. Map features or values for dynamic attributes, assumptions, indicators and charts may vary between the scenarios.

Data Inventory & Analysis Data collection for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 started in 2009 (as part of Your Vision, Our Future) and continued through completion of the model rebuild in 2016. Overall, the quantity of data available in the region was a major asset for developing the scenario planning model in CommunityViz, and the partnerships formed with the local governments for exchanging data benefitted both the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model v. 2.0 and many other region initiatives underway (e.g., advocating for critical transportation projects under Virginia House Bill 2 and numerous regional transportation studies/corridor studies). A file transfer protocol (FTP) site was set up for exchanging data in the region. Data was kept upto-date by the model development team for Your Vision, Our Future and the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0. Any government agency, research group or project team working in the region was allowed access to the data using a log-in and password.

Each development scenario is displayed in the table of contents window for ArcGIS Desktop. The active scenario is displayed in the work map. Switching between scenarios in the analysis is done through the Scenario 360 window.

Data collected for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 is described under three general headings: GIS data, regulatory documents and resource documents.

External Lookup Table

GIS Data

CommunityViz includes a feature that links tables in Scenario 360 to external tables so when changes are made to the external table they are automatically recognized and updated in the analysis. This feature can be used for linking external tables in text (*.txt), comma separated values (*.csv) or Microsoft Excel (*.xls or *.xlsx) formats.

Geographic information system (GIS) data was essential to building the region-wide model and evaluating alternative growth scenarios in CommunityViz. The model development team worked to create starting data sets in Your Vision, Our Future (2009 to 2012), and partnered with local governments in the region to update data for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 (2015 to 2016). Data was collected for three general categories: base map layers, analysis layers and reference layers. Other data was added to the database as the model rebuild

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process evolved. GIS data sets used in the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 are summarized in Table B2 on page 5.

Regulatory Documents Regulatory documents were collected from local governments in the region to rebuild the model and evaluate alternative growth scenarios; including comprehensive plans, adopted policy statements, zoning and subdivision ordinances, and zoning maps. Copies of the documents were important for creating the Place Types for Your Vision, Our Future document (see pg. 21), assigning place types in the region (see pg. 21), and creating a development lookup table for the CommunityViz model (see pg. 28).

Fredericksburg and Caroline, King George, Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties) and five development categories (single-family residential, multifamily residential, retail, office and industrial). A table summarizing control totals used for the CommunityViz model is provided in the technical appendix. More information on the growth control totals created for FAMPO’s 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization; including starting data sets, key assumptions, background calculations, and a summary of the review process (see memorandum entitled Model Assistance for Long Range Transportation Plan Development, prepared by Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., 2012).

Resource Documents Several resource documents were collected to create data sets, validate assumptions and write equations for CommunityViz, including: 

George Washington Region Green Infrastructure Plan

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Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act

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Civil War Sites Advisory Commission Battlefield Mapping Program

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American Battlefield Protection Program for the National Park Service

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Virginia House Bill 1071, Urban Development Areas

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MCB Quantico Joint Land Use Study

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Fort A.P. Hill Joint Land Use Study

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NSF Dahlgren Joint Land Use Study

Growth Control Totals Control totals for a thirty-five year planning horizon (2010 to 2045) were developed using socioeconomic data created for FAMPO’s 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Data was summarized for five growth areas (City of April 6, 2016

(Note: data assumed for 2045 was a placeholder for building the CommunityViz model and matches exactly growth assumed for 2040. The intent was to build a model that provides FAMPO the option to extend their long-range planning horizon to 2045 without major revisions.)

Employee Space Ratios Employee space ratios were used in CommunityViz to convert build out potential for non-residential development (square feet) to available supply (employees) for the growth allocation process. Ratios used for the conversion followed information published in the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition and several development impact fee studies completed for similar areas in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region. Employee space ratios assumed for the George Washington Region are summarized in the technical appendix.

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Table B2: Summary of GIS Data Used in George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 File Name Base Map Data Interstate Shields State Route Shields Interstate 95 US Highways VA Highways City, Town & County Boundaries Study Area Boundary Analysis Data Graduated Grid Cells Military Base Holdings Existing Rights-of-Way Water Bodies National Park Service Property State Parks & Other Government-Owned Land Resource Protection Areas Permanent Conservation Lands or Easements Major Activity Centers Major Activity Center, Area of Influence (three miles) Primary Growth Areas Interchange Locations Interchange Locations, Area of Influence (one mile) Major Roads Sewer Service Areas Water Service Areas Environmental Easements Conservation Easements Resource Protection Areas Floodplains VCLNA Designated Eco-Core Areas (Levels 1-3) Battlefield Protection Areas (Core Areas) Reference Data FAMPO Travel Demand Model TAZ Boundaries, v. 3.0 FAMPO Travel Demand Model TAZ Boundaries, v. 4.0 Zoning Maps & Future Land Use Maps Parcels Place Type Assignments (parcel-level) Development Status Assignments (parcel-level) Aerial Photography

Shapefile Format

Source

CommunityViz Module

Point Point Polyline Polyline Polyline Polygon Polygon

Consultant Consultant VDOT VDOT VDOT FAMPO FAMPO

Reporting Reporting Reporting Reporting Reporting Reporting Reporting

Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Point Polygon Polygon Point Polygon Polyline Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon

Consultant FAMPO Consultant FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO

All Modules Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability Land Suitability

Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Polygon Raster

FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO FAMPO

Reporting Reporting Build-Out Potential Build-Out Potential Build-Out Potential Build-Out Potential Build-Out Potential

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Data Manipulation Three new GIS data sets were created specifically for Your Vision, Our Future in 2010 and updated (where appropriate) for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 in 2015. The new data sets include: development status, place types and a graduated grid cell layer. A description of each data set and information used for populating the databases is provided on the following pages.

Development Status Development status in the George Washington Region told CommunityViz which set of equations to use for estimating the development yield (build-out potential) of a grid cell. And when combined with the land suitability score and place type assignments, it established the order and supply available for a grid cell to receive future growth in the model. Development Status Assignments Development status was assigned to parcels in the region for Your Vision, Our Future using 2010 aerial photography, property appraiser data and topic-specific GIS data sets (e.g., existing land use, farmland or vacant land inventories, etc.). Emphasis on one or more of the data sets varied by the development status category being coded, which is highlighted in the category descriptions below. Values for development status were recorded in a new column created for the parcel files named DEV_STAT (short for “development status category”). Internal scripts in the model transferred values from parcels to grid cells using an overlap most function. Category Descriptions Development status categories used for the George Washington Region include: open space, agriculture, developed, undeveloped and under-

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Technical Document

developed. A brief description of each category follows: Open Space – Active or passive land dedicated to permanent or semi-permanent open space, including: national battlefield parks; national park service lands, state parks, conservation areas, parks and recreation fields, and land set aside for open space in residential neighborhoods, commercial centers, business parks, etc. Existing land use inventories, conservation land databases, points of interest data, property appraiser data, and 2010 aerial photography were used to assign open space status in the region. Agriculture – A regional database for working farms or forestry tracts was not available for coding development status. 2010 aerial photography supplemented by property appraiser data, voluntary agriculture district inventories, and interviews with local farm advocates were used to assign agriculture status in the region. Agriculture assignments were conservative based on available data and focused almost entirely on locations that displayed visible row crops, farm buildings, etc. Developed – Lots or parcels largely built-out with permanent buildings or structures. Developed status was also assigned to surface parking lots that serve adjoining buildings, or to sliver lots adjacent to developed parcels (appearing to be part of the same development or home site) where size, shape or access limitations would generally keep them from developing in the future. Existing land use inventories, building footprint files, points of interest data, property appraiser data, and 2010 aerial photography were used to assign developed status in the region. Undeveloped – Lots or parcels without permanent buildings or structures. Undeveloped status was also assigned to more rural parcels with temporary structures (e.g., pole barn, large storage shed, etc.) that could easily be removed to accommodate new development. Existing land use inventories, building footprint files, points of interest data, Pg. 20

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

property appraiser data, and 2010 aerial photography were used to assign undeveloped status in the region. Under-Developed – Lots or parcels with permanent buildings or structures that occupy only a small portion of the property; leaving significant area available for future development. The initial test was limited to space efficiency and not a judgment on use or condition of the buildings or structures on the property. Existing land use inventories, building footprint files, points of interest data, property appraiser data, and 2010 aerial photography were used to assign underdeveloped status in the region. Additional parcels were (re)assigned underdeveloped status in consultation with local government officials and/or consistent with areas targeted for redevelopment in locally-adopted plans during Your Vision, Our Future. Development Status Assignments Map A map depicting development status assignments for the region is included in the technical appendix. A large-scale, printable version of the map is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Place Type Categories Your Vision, Our Future introduced the concept of place types to the region, which generalized various development categories used by local governments to describe, measure and evaluate the built environment. Twenty-two place type categories captured different development types, patterns and intensities observed in the region. The concept of place types and a full description of the categories created for the George Washington Region are described in the Place Type Summary Document for Your Vision, Our Future. A copy of the document is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. Pg. 21

Assigning place types to parcels in the region told the CommunityViz model which set of density or intensity rules to use for estimating development potential, and built confidence with local governments in the modeling process. Place type values were used with the land suitability score and development status assignment to allocate future growth to grid cells in the model. Place Type Assignments Place types were assigned to parcels in the region for Your Vision, Our Future using development status values (see discussion on page 6) and various GIS data sources. Developed parcels relied on 2010 aerial photography, property appraiser data, specific GIS data available for a jurisdiction (e.g., existing land use inventory or church locations) and fieldwork. Values assigned “urban development area” for Your Vision, Our Future were reviewed and revised in 2015 (where necessary) based on recent local government comprehensive plan amendments (adopted after 2010). Parcels assigned undeveloped, under-developed or agriculture status relied on locally-adopted comprehensive plans, zoning ordinances or development approvals to anticipate what could be built in the future. A place type classification matrix (matching local land use or zoning categories to place type categories) is included in Section E of the Place Type Summary Document for Your Vision, Our Future. Parcels assigned open space development status were assigned ‘preserved open space’ for place type. Internal scripts in the model transferred values from parcels to grid cells using an overlap most function. Place Type Category Descriptions A brief summary of each place type category is provided below. See Section B of the Place Type Final Document

Technical Document

Summary Document for Your Vision, Our Future for more detailed information, including: land use considerations, general development characteristics, and images representing typical development in each place type category. A copy of the document is available from the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. Preserved Open Space – Preserved open space areas include active and passive land dedicated for permanent conservation. These areas are typically undisturbed or undeveloped and have been protected from development by local, state and federal agencies or by public, private and nonprofit organizations. In the region, these areas include state and national parks, permanent conservation areas, park land, golf courses, cemeteries and dedicated open space within residential subdivisions. Working Farm – Working farms are actively being used for commercial agriculture or forestry activities, including cultivated farmland, timber harvest, livestock or woodlands. These areas also support the primary residence of the property owner and any out-buildings associated with activities on the working farm. Rural Living – Rural living areas are characterized by large lots, abundant open space, pastoral views and a high degree of separation between buildings. Residential homes and hobby farms are scattered throughout the countryside and often integrated into the natural landscape. The lot size and separation between buildings decreases approaching areas with greater development densities. Buildings at the edges of most rural areas are generally oriented toward highways and have direct access to the adjacent highway through a private driveway. More dense development in the place type may take the form of conservation-based subdivisions (often referred to as cluster developments), which leave larger areas for permanent open space and April 6, 2016

Preserved Open Space (Passive)

Preserved Open Space (Active)

Working Farm

Rural Living

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood

Multifamily Suburban Neighborhood

uninterrupted views of the surrounding countryside.

neighborhood is served by only one long cul-desac.

Rural Cross Roads – Rural cross roads represent the small nodes of commercial activity at the intersection of two rural highways. Small-scale businesses, such as gas stations, convenience stores or restaurants, serve some daily needs of the surrounding rural population. Employment and other commercial needs for rural residents may be satisfied in suburban commercial, office or industrial centers.

Small-Lot Suburban Neighborhood – Small-lot, suburban neighborhoods are generally formed as subdivisions or communities, with a relatively uniform housing type and density throughout. They are often found in close proximity to commercial and suburban office centers, and provide the rooftops necessary to support the centers. Buildings are oriented interior to the subdivision and are typically buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses or landscaped areas.

Mobile Home Community – Mobile home communities are characterized by single-wide and double-wide mobile homes on individual lots clustered in an area owned and managed by a single entity. These neighborhoods are found throughout the region and often provide an affordable housing option for residents. Large-Lot Residential Neighborhood – Large-lot residential neighborhoods are generally formed in rural subdivisions on the fringes of rural living areas and consist almost entirely of single-family detached homes. Buildings are oriented interior to the site and are typically buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses, topography or vegetative areas. Many neighborhoods ‘borrow’ open space from adjacent rural or natural settings. Blocks are typically large and streets are typically rural in character. In some cases, the

Pg. 23

Multifamily Suburban Neighborhood – Multifamily suburban neighborhoods are generally formed as complexes or communities, with a relatively uniform housing type and density throughout. They support the highest residential density in the suburban landscape, and may contain one of the following housing types: condominiums, townhomes, senior housing or apartments. Multifamily suburban neighborhoods are found in close proximity to suburban commercial and office centers, and provide the rooftops necessary to support the commercial and office uses within the centers. Buildings are oriented interior to the site and are typically buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses or landscaped areas. Large parking lots and low street

Final Document

Technical Document

Suburban Commercial Center

connectivity are common in multifamily suburban neighborhoods. Urban Neighborhood – Urban neighborhoods support a mix of moderate- to high-density housing options. These neighborhoods are relatively compact, and may contain one or more of the following housing types: small lot single family detached, townhomes, condominiums or apartments. Buildings are generally oriented toward the street. The design and scale of development in an urban neighborhood encourages active living with a complete and comprehensive network of walkable streets. Cul-de-sacs are restricted to areas where topography, environment features or existing development makes other street connections prohibitive. Suburban Commercial Center – Suburban commercial centers serve the daily needs of surrounding residential neighborhoods. They typically locate near high-volume roads and key intersections, and are designed to be accessible primarily by automobile. Buildings are set back from the road behind large surface parking lots, with little or no connectivity between adjacent businesses. Common types of suburban centers in the region include: multi-tenant strip centers, big box stores and large shopping malls. Suburban Office Center – Suburban office centers provide opportunities to concentrate employment

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Light Industrial Center

that keeps the working population in the region on normal workdays. They include both largescale isolated buildings with numerous employees as well as areas containing multiple businesses that support and serve one another. They are typically buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses or landscaped areas and are often located in close proximity to major highways or thoroughfares. Light Industrial Center – Light Industrial centers provide opportunities to concentrate employment that keeps the working population in the region on normal workdays. Each center generally supports manufacturing and production uses, including warehousing, light manufacturing, medical research and assembly operations. These areas are found in close proximity to major transportation corridors (i.e., highway or rail) and are generally buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses or landscaped areas that shield the view of structures, loading docks or outdoor storage from adjacent properties. Clusters of uses that support or serve one another are often encouraged to locate in the same light industrial center. Heavy Industrial Center – Heavy industrial centers support large-scale manufacturing and production uses, including assembly and processing, regional warehousing and distribution, bulk storage and utilities. These areas are found in close proximity to major transportation corridors (e.g., highways or railroads) and are generally

Pg. 24

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

buffered from surrounding development by transitional uses or landscaped areas that increase in size as development intensity increases. Heavy industrial centers may require larger sites because activities are not confined entirely to buildings. Conveyer belts, holding tanks, smoke stacks or outdoor storage all may be present in a heavy industrial center. Clusters of uses that support or serve heavy industrial centers should be encouraged to locate in close proximity. Mixed-Use Neighborhood – A mixed-use neighborhood offers residents the ability to live, shop, work and play in one community. These neighborhoods include a mixture of housing types and residential densities integrated with goods and services that residents need on a daily basis. The design and scale of the development encourages active living through a comprehensive and interconnected network of walkable streets. Mixed-use neighborhoods support multiple modes of transportation. Town Center – Town centers are locally-serving areas of economic, entertainment and community activity. Uses and buildings are located on small blocks with streets designed to encourage pedestrian activity. Buildings typically stand two or more stories in height with residential units above storefronts. The compact, walkable environment and mix of residential and nonresidential uses in a town center often support multiple modes of transportation. Town centers represent the traditional downtown or courthouse area of historic towns and communities found throughout the George Washington Region. Transit-Oriented Development – Transit-oriented development (TOD) represents the concentration of mixed-use, dense development around a transit center. Uses and buildings are located on small blocks with streets designed to encourage bicycle and pedestrian activity. High-density development is located primarily within ¼-mile of Pg. 25

the transit station, with progressively lower densities spreading out into neighborhoods surrounding the center. TOD is credited with relieving traffic congestion on the surrounding street network by shifting automobile trips to transit trips, and by capturing some trips on-site between complementary residential and non-residential uses. Metropolitan Center – A metropolitan center is the focal point of the region. It is the hub of employment, shopping, entertainment, civic and cultural activities, with a mix of housing types and common open space for active living. As a magnet to surrounding towns and neighborhoods, the metropolitan center becomes the iconic symbol of the region, starting with historic buildings and a traditional grid street network. The compact, walkable environment and mix of residential and non-residential uses in a metropolitan center support multiple modes of transportation. Military Base – There are three military bases in the region — MCB Quantico; Naval Surface Weapons Center, Dahlgren Divison; and Fort A.P. Hill — that shelter military equipment and personnel. These facilities support research and development, strategic combat planning, weapons system testing, and service member training for three different branches of the US military (i.e., Army, Navy, and Marine Corps). Training facilities for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) are also located on MCB Quantico. Regional Airport – A regional airport supports local air traffic into and out of the George Washington Region. Each may include one or more runways, a terminal, taxiways, gas fuel and storage facilities or paved aircraft parking areas. Complimentary uses (e.g., rental car facilities) may surround a regional airport. Restrictions on use, placement and height for some forms of development should be followed in designated runway airspace protection areas. Final Document

Technical Document

Metropolitan Center

Private and corporate aircraft in the region are served by Shannon and Stafford Regional Airports.

the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Graduated Grid Cells Civic & Institutional Facilities – Civic and institutional facilities are focal points in the region. They typically include a building or complex of buildings that serve a public purpose, including a library, school, hospital, public works complex or town government. Visual qualities of the building and its surrounding grounds often make civic and institutional facilities a landmark within the region. Place Type Assignments Map A map depicting place type assignments for each of the growth scenarios described in Section A is included in the technical appendix. Large-scale, printable versions of each map are available from April 6, 2016

Grid cells were used as a common geography in CommunityViz to address size and complexity issues for scenario planning in such a large study area. They were used to aggregate parcel-level data and supported a number of calculations focused on the region-as-a-whole. The size of grid cells used in the model varied to reflect the type, pattern and intensity of development in the region. Smaller size cells (2.5 acres to 10.0 acres) were used for urban and suburban areas to capture quick changing development patterns and intensities common in downtowns, neighborhoods, activity centers or

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Growth (by control total category) was allocated to grid cells in the model for each of the alternative growth scenarios. Grid level data was summarized in CommunityViz by traffic analysis zone and exported to a database format (*.dbf) for creating socioeconomic data in the FAMPO Region Travel Demand Model.

transportation corridors. Larger size cells (40.0 acres to 2,560.0 acres) were used for rural areas, military bases and land held in permanent conservation to capture slow changing development patterns and intensities over the larger geography. General rules for assigning grid cell sizes in the region are summarized in Table B3. The opportunity to use a graduated grid data layer for the George Washington Region improved overall model performance and allowed stakeholders greater flexibility for assigning values and reporting results. Overall, the use of grid cells over parcels in the CommunityViz model was able to reduce the number of records in the database by 40%; converting 160,769 parcels to 95,915 grid cells.

Model Architecture The George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 used a region-wide modeling platform to run and evaluate competing growth scenarios. Certain variables and values used in the calculations were linked to CommunityViz via lookup tables, which accounted for the different rules or policies local governments use to regulate development potential.

A map of the model architecture for the regionwide model is provided in the technical appendix. More information for specific components of the model architecture is provided on the following pages.

Model Components The George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 includes five major components: carrying capacity analysis, external lookup tables, build-out potential analysis, land suitability analysis and growth allocation. Carrying Capacity Analysis Some land in the region will never develop because of physical conditions on the site, land ownership, or the existence of federal/state/local policies that prohibit development. These areas ― referred to as “highly-constrained for development” in the scenario planning process ― were removed from the model to more accurately

Table B3: General Rules for Assigning Grid Cells in CommunitiyViz

Pg. 27

Grid Cell 1/16 mile

Dimensions 330’ x 330’

Area 2.5 acres

General Rule Land inside the designated primary growth area for a local government

Quantity 71,337

1/8 mile

660’ x 660’

10 acres

Land outside a designated primary growth area within ½-mile of a US/VA highway

12,439

1/4 mile

1,320’ x 1,320’

40 acres

Land outside a designated primary growth area and more than ½-mile from a US/VA highway

12,036

1 mile

5,280’ x 5,280’

640 acres

Land not likely to develop in the future (e.g., conservation land or military base)

2 mile

10,560’ x 10,560’

2,560 acres

Land not likely to develop in the future (e.g., conservation land or military base)

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estimate buildable area in the region. Internal scripts in the model removed “highlyconstrained areas for development” from the build-out calculations using an overlap function. The presence of development constraints on a grid cell was reported as an area statistic (DEV_CON). The area(s) of a grid cell remaining for development was calculated as the difference between total land area and the DEV_CON statistic (DEV_AREA). A site efficiency factor (specific to each place type category) was also applied to vacant grid cells to account for land typically set aside for on-site improvements (e.g., internal streets, utility easements, storm water management and open space) to support new development. The portion(s) of a grid cell remaining after the removal of “highly-constrained areas for development” and the application of a factor for on-site infrastructure (if vacant) were used to enumerate buildable area for the region (BUILD_AREA). Features in the George Washington Region to represent highly-constrained areas for development include: 

Military Base Holdings



Existing Rights-of-Way



Water Bodies



National Park Service Property



State Parks & Other Government Land



Resource Protection Areas



Permanent Conservation Lands or Easements

A composite map for the carrying capacity analysis is included in the technical appendix.

External Lookup Tables Some variables and values used in the calculations for CommunityViz were linked to the analysis via April 6, 2016

external lookup tables, which updated automatically every time a change was made outside the software. The tables were used to capture general development characteristics associated with the different place types and enumerate household and employment control totals for the growth allocation process. General Development Lookup Table The general development lookup table was tied to place type categories in the model and varied by local government in the region; reflecting small differences in characteristics or expectations for each place type specific to the jurisdiction’s local comprehensive plan or land development controls.

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

All seven communities in the region (King George, Caroline, Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties; the City of Fredericksburg; and Towns of Bowling Green and Port Royal) were represented in one Microsoft Excel file. Each jurisdiction used the same data columns, naming convention, and formatting features to streamline the modeling process. The only variations in the table were associated with the values assumed for the variables. Build-out potential factors calculated in the lookup table streamlined calculations inside CommunityViz by multiplying factors outside the model. Information in the lookup tables was summarized under eighteen column headings, including: General Characteristics 

Jurisdiction Name



Jurisdiction Code



Place Type Category



Site Efficiency Factor



Percent Residential Development



Percent Non-Residential Development

Residential Development Characteristics 

Percent Single Family Development



Percent Multifamily Development



Average Residential Density

Non-Residential Development Characteristics 

Average Floor Area Ratio



Percent Office Development



Percent Retail Development



Percent Industrial Development

Build-Out Potential Factors 

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Single Family Development



Multifamily Development



Office Development



Retail Development



Industrial Development

The general development lookup table (by growth scenario described in Section A and representing all seven communities) is included in the technical appendix. Growth Control Totals Lookup Table The growth control totals lookup table was used to store growth area control totals for six interim horizon periods between 2010 and 2045. Dwelling unit data was reported for single family and multifamily residential categories. Data for employees was reported for office, retail and industrial categories. The growth control totals lookup table is included in the technical appendix.

Build-Out Potential Analysis The build-out potential analysis tried to simulate the type, location and intensity of development for a theoretical condition where all grid cells in the region were developed (or redeveloped) consistent with assigned place types and development lookup table values. Internal scripts in CommunityViz started with buildable area (BUILD_AREA) and applied rules for land use mix, density or intensity from the General Development Characteristics Lookup Table to estimate a maximum number of new dwelling units and/or nonresidential square footage for a grid cell. Build-out potential for the growth scenarios was calculated for grid cells with a development status of undeveloped, under-developed or agriculture. Statistics were summarized using five development categories (single-family residential, multifamily residential, office, retail and industrial) and six horizon periods: 2010 to 2020, 2021 to 2025, Final Document

2026 to 2030, 2031 to 2035, 2036 to 2040 and 2041 to 2045. Available supply for successive horizon periods was calculated by subtracting current period allocation statistics from the same horizon period supply statistics (e.g., 2025 available supply – 2025 allocation = 2030 available supply). Build-out statistics for residential uses were reported in dwelling units. A factor was applied to nonresidential build-out statistics to convert maximum allowable square feet to total employees for the growth allocation process (see discussion on pg. 18). Build-out statistics were summarized by growth area and horizon period for the growth allocation process (consistent with growth area control totals and periods in the Growth Control Totals Lookup Table). This information was used to represent ‘available supply’ for the internal scripts in CommunityViz.

Land Suitability Analysis Land suitability analysis (LSA) in a GIS environment measures the appropriateness of an area for a specific condition or use. For the George Washington Region, it was used to identify 1) locations attractive for conservation and 2) locations attractive for growth based on known physical features or policies unique to the region. Physical features in and immediately surrounding the region were layered over grid cells in CommunityViz, and calculations performed for both LSA conditions (conservation and growth) to determine either percent overlap or proximity of features to individual grid cells. A normalized scale (between 0 and 100) was used to rank the grid cells from least to most suitable for conservation or growth. Factors in the LSA could have a positive or negative correlation to desirability scores.

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Factors used in the George Washington Region for running the land suitability analyses in CommunityViz include: LSA Factors for Prime Conservation Areas 

Environmental Easements



Conservation Easements



Resource Protection Areas



Floodplains



VCLNA Designed Eco-Core Areas (Levels 1-3)



Battlefield Protection Areas (Core Areas)



State Parks

LSA Factors for Prime Growth Areas 

Major Activity Centers



Major Activity Centers, Area of Influence (three miles)



Primary Growth Areas



Interchange Locations



Interchange Locations, Area of Influence (one mile)



Major Roads



Sewer Service Areas



Water Service Areas



Composite LSA Conservation Score

Factors were also weighted (using a scale of 0 – not important to 10 – most important) to put more or less significance on one factor compared to others in the calculation. Focus group meetings with business and development interests for Your Vision, Our Future helped set the weighted values (see meetings summary in the technical appendix). A summary table of variables and weights for the conservation and growth LSA analyses in CommunityViz is included in the technical appendix.

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George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

A composite map and contributing factor maps for both land suitability analyses are also included in the technical appendix.

Composite maps for the allocation of new dwelling units and new employees by grid cell and horizon period are included in the technical appendix.

Growth Allocation Growth forecasted for the region between 2010 and 2045 was allocated to grid cells using the “allocation tool wizard” in CommunityViz. The tool helped determine where growth would likely occur using a supply-and-demand approach and a series of probability-based models internal to the software. Information from previous steps in the modeling process (build-out potential analysis and land suitability analysis) was fed directly into the wizard for completing the allocation process. Control totals for the thirty-five year planning horizon (2010 – 2045) were developed using socioeconomic data created for FAMPO’s 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Data was summarized for five development categories: single family residential, multifamily residential, office, retail and industrial. A table summarizing controls totals used for CommunityViz is included in the technical appendix. The analysis layer used for the allocation process (GWR_Grid_File.shp) included a land suitability score (relying on the primary growth area LSA scores) and development capacity statistics for each grid cell. The land suitability analysis score helped run the allocation process using probability-based, exponential theory. This approach relied on land suitability analysis scores to determine the likelihood of a dwelling unit or employee filling each grid cell. Grid cells with a higher land suitability analysis score had a much higher probability of being filled over grid cells with lower scores. The allocation tool wizard was run 150 times to allocate future year growth in the region (5 growth areas x 5 development categories x 6 horizon periods = 150 runs).

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Model Calibration A significant amount of time was reserved in Your Vision, Our Future to calibrate the CommunityViz model and validate the data used to create it. These activities were critical to developing data and assumptions for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0; building confidence in the scenario planning tools and reaching greater consensus among local governments in the region for the results. A summary of key calibration/validation activities performed for Your Vision, Our Future (and carried forward in the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0) is provided below.

Project Steering Committee A project steering committee for Your Vision, Our Future was formed to provide direct oversight and counsel for the scenario planning study. Those on the steering committee represented a broad base of local interests, viewpoints and concerns in the region. Membership on the committee included: local planning officials, regional planning agencies, military interests, environmental groups, national park advocates, economic development interests, and the Virginia Department of Transportation. Seven meetings with the project steering committee were used to build the scenario planning tools and prepare alternative growth scenarios for Your Vision, Our Future. The first meeting focused on big ideas and regional issues important to the scenario planning study. The next two meetings were focused on data collection and building/testing the scenario planning tools. The last four meetings were used to discuss community values and attitudes toward growth, identify alternative growth scenarios, measure the Final Document

Â trade-offs among them, and review project deliverables.

Place Type Summary Document The Place Type Summary Document for Your Vision, Our Future generalized various development categories used by local governments in the region to describe, measure and evaluate the built environment. The draft document was reviewed by the project steering committee for Your Vision, Our Future. Three iterations of the draft document were prepared during their review. The final document was published in October 2010.

GIS Source Data Geographic information system (GIS) data was essential for completing Your Vision, Our Future and building the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0. Staff for the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization and George Washington Commission worked to create starting data sets for Your Vision, Our Future in 2009, and partnered with local governments in the region to keep files up-to-date throughout the scenario planning process (2009 to 2012). Local governments were also contacted in 2015 to update GIS data, if needed, for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0.

Technical Document

Information from the validation studies was shared with local governments during Your Vision, Our Future, and used to adjust lookup table values for conditions unique to each place type and jurisdiction.

Internal Quality Control The model development team used regular coordination calls, emails, milestone web meetings, and on-site coordination meetings to build and calibrate the George Washington Region CommunityViz, v. 2.0, and validate the data used to create it. Key quality control issues addressed by the team included: data availability, model architecture, model input data and values, rates and calculations (especially for the land suitability analysis and growth allocation modules), beta model results and reporting geographies.

Site Validation Studies Site validation studies were completed for Your Vision, Our Future to confirm the values used in the general development lookup table for place types and jurisdictions represented in the model. Using existing development, the model development team completed a site analysis for the place type categories (three sample sites each) present in each jurisdiction. Data was collected for buildable area, density and floor area ratio.

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Section C: Technical Appendix

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES Business & Development Interests August 4, 2010 @ 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 noon Fredericksburg Expo and Conference Center 2371 Carl D. Silver Parkway, Fredericksburg

Meeting Objective: The focus group meeting with business and development interests will be used to capture the effect of market conditions or business site selection criteria in making one parcel more attractive to develop over others in the region. Information generated at the meeting will be shared with the project steering committee, and used by the project team to develop the scenario planning computer model for Your Vision, Our Future.

Agenda: I.

Welcome & Introductions

II. Project Background • •

General Overview Role of the Focus Group

III. What Drives Growth in the Region? • •

Generate List of Factors Rank Factors in Order of Importance

IV. Where is Growth Going in the Region? • •

Growth Trends in the Region Map-Dot Exercise

V. Closing Thoughts

Project Contact: Marti Donley, FAMPO

(540) 373-2890

donley@gwregion.org

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES Business & Development Interests Meeting Summary Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center 2371 Carl D. Silver Parkway

Overview: On August 4, 2010, the project team for Your Vision, Our Future met with members of a focus group for business and development interests in the George Washington Region. The meeting was used to generate a list of factors that make land more attractive to develop, rank those factors for relative importance, and answer general questions about ‘hot spots’ in the region for future growth. A brief presentation by the project team was followed by an open discussion on topics outlined in a workbook used to facilitate the meeting. Major topics of discussion included project background, what drives growth in the region, where is growth going in the region, and general comments. The project team collected the workbooks at the end of the event. Information generated at the meeting will be shared with the project steering committee and used in developing the computer scenario planning model for Your Vision, Our Future. A list of meeting attendees is attached.

Growth Drivers in the Region: Growth drivers represent physical or policy conditions that make one parcel more desirable to develop over others in the region. Meeting participants worked with the project team to identify a comprehensive list of growth drivers and rank their relative importance for influencing growth. The discussion was organized around six general development categories: single-family residential, multifamily residential, general retail, general office, industrial, and mixed-use development. The initial list of growth drivers identified for Your Vision, Our Future included:       

location in a reservoir overlay district access to water service access to sewer service proximity to transit service presence of environmentally-sensitive land influence of state or federal environmental policies proximity to existing suburban or urban centers

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

   

location in an Urban Development Area (HB 1071) presence of steep slopes proximity to employment centers proximity to retail centers

There was general agreement within the group that these physical and policy conditions were important to driving growth in the region. Other growth drivers important to the region were recommended by meeting participants, including:          

large parcels under single ownership disjointed land ownership high quality-of-life location in an urban service area / primary settlement area in-place zoning development yield proffers good roads / available capacity access to regional bicycle / pedestrian network transfer development rights / purchase development rights

The complete list of growth drivers was used in the meeting. Discussion followed about the influence (i.e., positive or negative) of each variable for attracting new development. A positive correlation represented a variable that attracted development. A negative correlation represents a variable that discouraged development. Meeting participants were then asked to rank each growth driver on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 1 represented a weak correlation between the variable and encouraging or discouraging new development. A score of 5 represented a high correlation between the variable and encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers. Workbooks for the meeting were collected by the project team for tabulation. Summary tables for each general development category are attached.

High Growth Areas: Members of the focus group were asked to identify ‘hot spots’ in the region expected to see new development or redevelopment for the twenty-five year planning horizon (2035). Meeting participants were asked to place dots on maps included in the workbook. The dots represented areas of each county or city expected to see new development or redevelopment in the future. Meeting participants also volunteered general comments about growth and development in the region to supplement the dot exercise. A summary of general comments is attached.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

The project team collected all workbooks at the end of the event for reference throughout the project. This information will be used in the scenario planning computer model to calibrate the calculations and assignments used to allocate new growth in the region with trends or expectations voiced by members of the focus group.

General Comments: Several comments were voiced throughout the meeting to guide preparation of Your Vision, Our Future. A brief summary of the comments follows: 

The project team should evaluate a development scenario for the region that depicts how growth better pays for itself.



Affordable housing should be an important consideration for building development scenarios contemplated for the region. It should also be a significant component in the toolbox recommended for implementing Your Vision, Our Future.



The project team should consider the individuality of cities and counties in the region. Some of the suggestions today might apply differently in certain portions of the region; especially in terms of urban vs. rural initiatives by cities and counties in the region. The computer scenario planning models developed at the sub-region level should be adjusted to best represent the growth drivers and their influence on local land development decisions.

Announcements: The project team made several announcements during the meeting. The project steering committee will next meet on Thursday, August 26, 2010. Round one of citizen workshops in the region are scheduled as follows: 

Tuesday, September 21, 2010 Bowling Green Town Hall 117 Butler Street, Bowling Green, VA 6:30 – 8:30 p.m.



Thursday, September 23, 2010 Spotswood Baptist Church 409 Lafayette Boulevard, Fredericksburg, VA 6:30 – 8:30 p.m.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Tuesday, September 28, 2010 Stafford County Community Center 29 Stafford Avenue, Stafford, VA 6:30 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 8:30 p.m.

Meeting participants were also encouraged to visit frequently the project website for Your Vision, Our Future (www.fampo.gwregion.org/regionallandusescenarioplanning) to stay involved in the project. The meeting of the focus group ended at 12:00 noon.

1 3 3 4 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 5 5 5 0

WB 5

3 4 3 3

4 5 5 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5

WB 6 3 5 5 2 1 1 5 3 1 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 5

WB 7 3 5 5 4 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 4 3 3 5

WB 8 1 5 5 2 5 2 4 3 5 5 3 5 5 2 3 5 2 5 4

WB 9 1 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 3

WB 10 2 5 5 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 4 3 2 3

WB 11 2 5 5 2 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 4

WB 12 2 5 5 2 5 2 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 2 5 5 4 4 3

WB 13 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

WB 14

2 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 3 4

WB 15

1 5 5 5 1 2 5 5 1 5 1 5 4 5 4 5 1 1 4

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

= Meeting participants were asked to rank each growth driver on a scale of 1 to 5. A score of 1 represented a weak correlation between the variable and encouraging or discouraging new development. A score of 5 represented a high correlation between the variable and

2 5 5 3 2 2 4 5 1 3 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 2 2

WB 4

= Workbooks used in the focus group meeting were collected at the end of the event to record individual scores. One workbook was returned for each meeting participant. A list of focus group participants is included in the meeting summary document.

3 4 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 4 4 5 2 4 2 3 2 2 3

WB 3

1 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 5 5 3 2 5 5 3 3

WB 2

= Growth drivers in the region could have a positive or negative correlation to desirability scores. A positive correlation (+) represents a variable that encourages development. A negative correlation (-) represents a variable that discourages development.

1 5 5 3 1 1 4 3 1 4 4 2 3 4 3 5 3 4 5

WB 1

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C

+ + + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Location in a Reservoir Overlay District Access to Water Service Access to Sewer Service Proximity to Transit Service Presence of Environmentally-Sensitive Land Influence of State or Federal Environmental Policies Proximity to Existing Suburban or Urban Centers Location in a Urban Development Area (HB 1071) Presence of Steep Slopes Proximity to Employment Centers Proximity to Retail Centers Large Parcels Under Single Ownership Disjointed Land Ownership High Quality-of-Life Location in an Urban Service Area / Primary Settlement Area In-Place Zoning High Development Yield Request for Proffers Access to Good Roads / Available Capacity

Variable

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

2 5 5 3 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3

RankC

Average

2 3 3 5 3 3 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 3

WB 5 4 5 5 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 3

WB 6 3 5 5 2 1 1 5 3 1 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 5

WB 7 3 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 5 3 3 2 2 5

WB 8 1 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 2 4 3 5 5 5

WB 9 1 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 4

WB 10 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3

WB 11 3 5 5 4 4 2 4 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 3 3 4

WB 12 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

WB 13 4 4 4 5 3 2 5 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

WB 14

2 5 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 4

WB 15

1 5 5 5 2 2 5 5 2 5 5 3 3 5 5 4 4 1 4

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

1 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 1 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 5

WB 4

3 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 5 1 4 4 3 3 2 4

WB 3

1 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 5 5 3 4 5 5 3 3

WB 2

4 5 5 5 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 5

WB 1

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C

+ + + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Variable

MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

2 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4

RankC

Average

3 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 4

WB 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 4 4 5 3 3 2 4 2 3 4

WB 6 2 5 5 5 1 1 4 3 1 2 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 4

3 5 5 4 3 2 5 3 3 5 4 * 2 5 * * * 2 4 4

1 2 2 3 4 1 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 * * 5 5 5

1 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 2 4 *

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C WB 7 WB 8 WB 9 WB 10 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 4 1 3 1 *

WB 11 3 5 5 3 4 3 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 * 4 4 4 5 *

WB 12 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

WB 13 4 4 4 5 3 2 5 4 2 4 4 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

WB 14

3 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 4 * * * * * * * * 5

WB 15

1 4 4 4 2 2 5 5 3 4 4 5 3 4 5 2 1 2 5 5

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

1 5 5 5 1 2 5 4 2 5 5 4 3 3 5 5 3 3 4 5

WB 4

1 5 5 4 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4 1 4 4 4 4 3 4 4

WB 3

1 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 1 4 3 3 3 5 4 3

WB 2

2 5 5 5 3 * 5 5 3 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 * 5 4 3

WB 1

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Variable

GENERAL RETAIL DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

2 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4

RankC

Average

3 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 4

WB 5 1 3 3 4 3 2 4 2 2 4 3 4 3 2 2 4 2 3 4 4

WB 6 1 5 5 4 1 1 4 3 1 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 1 4 4

3 5 5 4 2 2 4 4 3 4 4 1 3 5 * 4 * 1 5 3 4 3 5 5 4 5

1 4 4 4 1 1 5 4 5 4 4 2 2

1 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C WB 7 WB 8 WB 9 WB 10 3 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2

WB 11 2 5 5 2 3 2 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 3 * 4 3 3 5 5

WB 12 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

WB 13 4 4 4 5 3 2 5 4 2 4 4 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 * 4

WB 14

3 4 4 3 4 5 3 3 2 4 3 * * * * * * * * *

WB 15

1 5 5 5 2 2 5 4 2 5 4 5 2 4 4 4 * 2 * 5

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

1 5 5 5 2 2 4 4 3 5 5 5 5 3 4 4 2 4 5 5

WB 4

4 5 5 4 2 2 3 4 2 3 4 4 2 4 4 5 4 4 4 *

WB 3

1 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 5 1 4 3 5 * 3 4 3

WB 2

3 5 5 5 2 3 4 * 3 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 5 4

WB 1

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Variable

GENERAL OFFICE DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

2 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4

RankC

Average

3 5 5 3 4 4 3 3 4 5 2 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 * 4

WB 5 5 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 2 3 2 3 3 2 4 4 4 2 4 5 4

WB 6 1 5 5 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 4 4 3 2 4 4 1 4 1 4

* 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 * 5 2 2 4 * *

5 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 * * 4 5 5 3 5

1 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 3 5 4 2 4 4 3 5 3 5

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C WB 7 WB 8 WB 9 WB 10 3 1 1 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 * 5 * * 1

WB 11 2 5 5 1 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 4 2 * * 3 3 4 4 5

WB 12 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

WB 13 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 2 4 4 5 5 2 4 4 4 4 5 * 4

WB 14

4 4 4 2 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 * * * * * * * * 3 *

WB 15

1 5 5 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 3 5 2 2 4 2 * 1 * * 5

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

1 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 5 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 5

WB 4

1 5 5 4 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 1 2 3 4 * 2 4 3 5

WB 3

1 5 5 2 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 5 5 3 3 5 3 3 * 3 4

WB 2

2 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 2 5 3 4 5 4 3

WB 1

+ + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Variable

INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

2 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 4

RankC

Average

5 5 5 3 2 3 5 3 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 4 5 4 4 4

WB 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4

WB 6 5 5 3 1 1 5 3 1 4 4 4 4 5 3 5 4 1 4 1 5

5 5 4 4 3 4 4 2 3 4 1 3 4 * 5 3 2 4 * 3

4 4 5 5 2 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 * 4 5 3 4 4

4 4 4 2 2 3 3 1 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 *

Individual Workbook RankingsB, C WB 7 WB 8 WB 9 WB 10 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 * 2

WB 11 5 5 5 4 2 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 5

WB 12 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

WB 13 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 * * *

WB 14

5 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4

WB 15

5 5 5 2 2 5 5 2 5 4 5 2 5 5 3 * 2 5 * 5

WB 16

= Scores were determined using a straight average of data provided in the individual workbooks.

encouraging or discouraging new development. Scores were restricted to whole numbers.

5 5 5 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 5 5 5 3 4 4 3 3 5 3

WB 4

4 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 1 4 5 4 5 5 4 * *

WB 3

5 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 5 5 4 4 4 * 3 3 1 3

WB 2

5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 3 * 3 * 4

WB 1

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

CorrelationA

Notes:

Access to Water Service Access to Sewer Service Proximity to Transit Service Presence of Environmentally-Sensitive Land Influence of State or Federal Environmental Policies Proximity to Existing Suburban or Urban Centers Location in a Urban Development Area (HB 1071) Presence of Steep Slopes Proximity to Employment Centers Proximity to Retail Centers Large Parcels Under Single Ownership Disjointed Land Ownership High Quality-of-Life Location in an Urban Service Area / Primary Settlement Area In-Place Zoning / Mixed-Use Development Ordinance High Development Yield Request for Proffers Access to Good Roads / Available Capacity Access to the Regional Bicycle / Pedestrian Network Economic Development Incentitives

Variable

MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT

INVENTORY OF GROWTH DRIVERS IN THE REGION

Focus Group Meeting with Business & Development Interests

Your Vision, Our Future

4 4 4 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4

RankC

Average

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES Business & Development Interests High Growth Areas in the Region Summary of Focus Group Meeting Comments

‘Hot Spot’ Development Maps: Meeting participants were asked to place dots on the maps included in the workbook. The dots represented areas of each county or city expected to see new development or redevelopment through 2035. This information will be used in the scenario planning computer model to calibrate the calculations and assignments used to allocate new growth in the region with trends or expectations voiced by members of the focus group. The project team collected all workbooks at the end of the event for reference throughout the project.

General Comments: Meeting participants volunteered general comments about growth and development in the region. This information will be used to calibrate the computer scenario planning model. A brief summary of the comments follows: King George County •

The University of Mary Washington Dahlgren Campus near State Route 301 will open in 2012. It will serve local service members and the surrounding community. Two buildings will focus on education and research.

•

Growth ‘hot spots’ in the county include new retail development near Dahlgren Base, University of Mary Washington Dahlgren Campus, and the intersection of State Routes 3 and 301. Industrial development is also expected in the King George Industrial Park.

•

Retail, office, and service development will continue around Dahlgren Base and the University of Mary Washington Dahlgren Campus.

•

More retail, office, and service development will continue around the King George County Court House and the schools along State Route 3.

•

Multifamily development is feasible around Dahlgren Base.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

•

Lot of discussion today favored an urban vs. rural focus. King George County appreciates its unique role in the region as the centerpiece of rural living. Intense development may not occur for many years, and when it does it will likely highlight the struggle between status quo and new (smart) development.

•

More people will move into King George County to escape the congestion in Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania County, and Maryland.

•

Significant amounts of land in the Shiloh District are not zoned for future development

Caroline County •

Residential development will continue around the Town of Bowling Green.

•

The recent mixed-use rezoning in Carmel Church Station could have a dramatic impact on the surrounding area.

•

More commercial and office development is expected near Ladysmith.

•

Fort A.P. Hill has plans to expand on-base housing for military families.

•

Retail development will gravitate toward the intersection of State Routes 30 and 301.

•

The Carmel Church area is a magnet for future development in the county.

•

Residential and retail uses (with the exception of Carmel Church Station) are not a focus of development for the county.

•

Normal development patterns in the region do not apply in Caroline County.

•

The development strategy for Caroline County is business recruitment and job creation. New residential development is not desirable in the county.

City of Fredericksburg •

Celebrate Virginia is a commercial and mixed-use growth center.

•

Transit-oriented development is feasible around the Fredericksburg Train Station.

•

New development will emerge at crossroads along State Route 3.

•

Mixed-use development will continue around the University of Mary Washington Campus.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

•

The 50-acre Fredericksburg Park is one of the last large, undeveloped parcels in the city.

Stafford County •

Mixed-use and multifamily development is expected around State Route 17 near the University of Mary Washington Campus.

•

Reservoir District restrictions around Rocky Pen Reservoir will discourage new development.

•

Office and light industrial development expected around the Stafford County Airport.

•

Environmental restrictions around Crow’s Nest will discourage new development.

•

The University of Mary Washington owns 200+ acres near State Route 17.

•

A large number of people will be moving to the area to be near MCB Quantico.

•

Future development around Stafford County Airport should favor commercial and light and heavy industrial. These land uses are less prone to noise issues and could benefit from corporate air travel.

•

Residential development within two miles of the Stafford County Airport is exposed to aircraft operating noise and vibration. High concentrations of people on runways approaches or departures for the airport are potentially in harm’s way.

Spotsylvania County •

The site for a new VRE station will have a significant impact on growth in the surrounding area.

•

A new soccer complex near the intersection of State Routes 2 and 17 might encourage residential growth in the surrounding area.

•

Spotsylvania County should continue to discourage growth in rural areas of the county.

•

Mixed-use areas designated in the new comprehensive plan will be ‘hot spots’ for future growth.

•

The courthouse area should be a magnet for mixed-use development.

•

The North Village Development (pending approval) will be a large, mixed-use area on State Route 1 across from Massaponax High School. This could have a significant impact on the Jackson Gateway.

•

The North Village Development (pending approval) will include an education center.

Economic Development Director Economic Development Director Economic Development Director Business Development Vice President, Military Affairs Council Executive Director Commercial Sales/Leasing Broker Vice President of Commercial Construction Chairman Economic Development Director Director of Community Relations Manager President Chair Executive Director Administrator Director of Regional Planning Project Consultant Project Consultant

1. Gary Wilson

2. Karen Hedelt

3. Nichole Thompson

4. Jennifer Mihalcoe

5. Hart Rutherford

6. Gene Bailey

7. Wilson Greenlaw

8. Charlie Kilpatrick

9. Fred Messing

10. Tina Enin

11. Amanda Talbert

12. Ed Wallis

13. Andy Garrett

14. Chris Folger

15. Susan Spears

16. Lloyd Robinson

17. Kevin Byrnes

18. David Whyte

19. Matt Noonkester

List of Meeting Participants:

August 4, 2010 @ 9:00 a.m. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12:00 noon

Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc.

George Washington Region Commission

Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

Fredericksburg Regional Chamber of Commerce

Spotsylvania Greenways Initiative

Garrett Development

Stafford County Airport

GEICO

Mary Washington Healthcare

Committee of 500

Silver Companies

Thalhimer Commercial Real Estate

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance

Fredericksburg Chamber of Commerce

Spotsylvania County

King George County

City of Fredericksburg

Caroline County

Business & Development Interests

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES Chief Planners & Public Works Officials August 3, 2010 @ 1:00 – 4:00 p.m. Fredericksburg Expo and Conference Center 2371 Carl D. Silver Parkway, Fredericksburg

Meeting Objective: The focus group meeting with chief planners and public works officials will be used to capture the effect of local development policies and available infrastructure in making one parcel more attractive to develop over others in the region. Information generated at the meeting will be shared with the project steering committee, and used by the project team to develop the scenario planning computer model for Your Vision, Our Future.

Agenda: I.

Welcome & Introductions

II. Project Background • •

General Overview Role of the Focus Group

III. Special Conditions in the Region • •

Generate List of Factors Consider Impacts to Development Potential

IV. Place Types by Jurisdiction • • • •

Place Typology General Development Map General Development Characteristics Table Classification Matrix

V. Available Infrastructure in the Region VI. Closing Thoughts

Project Contact: Marti Donley, FAMPO

(540) 373-2890

donley@gwregion.org

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES Chief Planners & Public Works Officials Meeting Summary Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center 2371 Carl D. Silver Parkway

Overview: On August 3, 2010, the project team for Your Vision, Our Future met with members of a focus group for chief planners and public works officials in the George Washington Region. The meeting was used to capture the effect of local development policies and available infrastructure on development patterns and intensities represented in the region. A brief presentation by the project team was followed by an open discussion on topics outlined in a workbook used to facilitate the meeting. Major topics of discussion included project background, utility of the final report, special conditions in the region, place types by jurisdiction, and available infrastructure. The project team collected the workbooks and supporting maps at the end of the event. Information generated at the meeting will be shared with the project steering committee and used in developing the computer scenario planning model for Your Vision, Our Future. A list of meeting attendees is attached.

Utility of the Final Report: Meeting attendees participated in a group exercise led by the project team. Each member was asked to identify elements of the regional planning initiative that would most benefit local government cooperation and/or address their current issues. A summary of these comments follows: 

General acceptance of conclusions and recommendations in the final study report by all local governments in the region will be most critical to a successful project.



Key stakeholders need to buy into the planning process. Keep it transparent and engaging to improve the likelihood of implementation.



Coordination on issues facing the region could help local governments meet state or federal rules and mandates. General topic areas important for regional coordination include: transportation, environmental protection and permitting, water supply plans, urban development areas, and regional parks.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study



Education will be important to supporting some recommendations in the final study report. Background information related to a recommendation (or general topic area) should include a brief overview, benefits and opportunities, lessons from other regions, expected challenges, and available resources.



Keep the final study report and supporting documents concise and easy-to-ready.

Special Conditions in the Region: The project team presented an initial list of special conditions inventoried for the region. These conditions, present in one or more of the place type categories, could influence the type, pattern, or intensity of development where they are present. The initial list of special conditions identified for Your Vision, Our Future included airport facility impact zones, rural preservation areas, resource protection areas, resource management areas, agricultural and forestal districts, battlefield landscapes, urban development areas, and range compatibility use zones. Each member was asked to comment on the initial list of special conditions. There was general agreement that these physical and policy conditions were important for adjusting build-out potential in the region. Other special conditions important to the region were recommended by meeting participants, including:        

drinking water reservoir protection areas environmental easements historic overlay districts / historically significant properties corridor overlay districts primary settlement areas (Caroline County / Spotsylvania County) military mission footprints / compatibility zones urban growth boundaries (Stafford County / Spotsylvania County) targeted redevelopment areas (Stafford County)

The project team will research the special conditions noted above and include a brief narrative in both the place type summary document and the regional scan document. New special conditions will be added to the computer scenario planning model created for Your Vision, Our Future.

Place Types by Jurisdiction: The project team discussed the use of place types to generalize various development categories used by local governments in the region. Place types were assigned to parcels in the region using locally-adopted comprehensive plans and zoning ordinances, aerial photography, and fieldwork. The place type summary document for Your Vision, Our Future was used to supplement the discussion.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

The project team presented a draft general development map for initial review and comment. A largeformat map for each jurisdiction was reviewed in small groups during the meeting. Overall, the place type categories seem appropriate for normalizing terms and concepts used to describe development in the region. Several map revisions were identified to fine tune the place types assignments. Focus group members will work with the project team to identify additional data important to making the requested map revisions (e.g., tax assessor data, bona fide farms with best management plans, or subarea comprehensive plan maps).

Available Infrastructure: The project team led a discussion about existing and planned water and sewer service in the region and their influence on future development potential. Information from the utility providers will be used in the computer scenario planning model to determine development potential, identify desirable areas in the region for future development, and measure the impact of new development on local water and sewer systems. Local utility providers in the meeting agreed most infrastructure is built by the development community; in accordance with a water and sewer master plan. However, each utility does have a capital improvements program for building/upgrading treatment plants or replacing major components of the collection/distribution system (e.g., replacing pump stations with gravity systems). Individual water and sewer master plans in the region collectively highlight the planned service areas for the George Washington Region. Utility providers for Stafford, Spotsylvania, and King George Counties provided the project team with data on their respective water and sewer systems; including current demand and remaining capacity at treatment plants, and typical generation rates to use for predicting future demand on local water and sewer systems in the region.

Closing Announcements: The project team concluded the meeting with several announcements. The project steering committee will next meet on Thursday, August 26, 2010. Round one of citizen workshops in the region are scheduled as follows: 

Tuesday, September 21, 2010 Bowling Green Town Hall 117 Butler Street, Bowling Green, VA 6:30 – 8:30 p.m.



Thursday, September 23, 2010 Spotswood Baptist Church 409 Lafayette Boulevard, Fredericksburg, VA 6:30 – 8:30 p.m.

Your Vision, Our Future George Washington Region Scenario Planning Study

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Tuesday, September 28, 2010 Stafford County Community Center 29 Stafford Avenue, Stafford, VA 6:30 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 8:30 p.m.

Public Works and Utilities Director Public Works Director Utilities Director Environmental Planner Division Manager, Environmental Division of Public Works Chairman, Planning Commission Planner III, Development Service Division Administrator Principle Planner Project Consultant Project Consultant

1. Edward Petrovitch

2. Keith Dayton

3. Harry Critzer

4. Heather Straughan

5. Steven Hubble

6. Pete Davis

7. Doug Morgan

8. Lloyd Robinson

9. Andy Waple

10. David Whyte

11. Matt Noonkester

List of Meeting Participants:

August 3, 2010 @ 1:00 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 4:00 p.m.

Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc.

Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

Spotsylvania County

Caroline County

Stafford County

King George County

Stafford County

Spotsylvania County

Chief Planners & Public Works Officials

FOCUS GROUP MEETING SERIES

Section C: Technical Appendix Regional Growth Totals Summary Table, 2010 to 2045

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0

Fredericksburg Fredericksburg Fredericksburg Fredericksburg Fredericksburg Fredericksburg Caroline County Caroline County Caroline County Caroline County Caroline County Caroline County King George County King George County King George County King George County King George County King George County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Stafford County Stafford County Stafford County Stafford County Stafford County

Growth Area

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Horizon Year Growth Between 2010 and 2020 Growth Between 2021 and 2025 Growth Between 2026 and 2030 Growth Between 2031 and 2035 Growth Between 2036 and 2040 Growth Between 2041 and 2045 Growth Between 2010 and 2020 Growth Between 2021 and 2025 Growth Between 2026 and 2030 Growth Between 2031 and 2035 Growth Between 2036 and 2040 Growth Between 2041 and 2045 Growth Between 2010 and 2020 Growth Between 2021 and 2025 Growth Between 2026 and 2030 Growth Between 2031 and 2035 Growth Between 2036 and 2040 Growth Between 2041 and 2045 Growth Between 2010 and 2020 Growth Between 2021 and 2025 Growth Between 2026 and 2030 Growth Between 2031 and 2035 Growth Between 2036 and 2040 Growth Between 2041 and 2045 Growth Between 2010 and 2020 Growth Between 2021 and 2025 Growth Between 2026 and 2030 Growth Between 2031 and 2035 Growth Between 2036 and 2040 Growth Between 2041 and 2045

Description 641 328 328 250 250 250 2,878 1,455 1,455 1,232 1,232 1,232 2,466 1,359 1,359 1,189 1,189 1,189 12,699 6,650 6,650 5,581 5,581 5,581 11,997 6,132 6,132 5,489 5,489 5,489

Single Family Dwelling Units

Regional Growth Total Summary Table ― Five Year Growth Increments, 2010 to 2045

886 452 452 345 345 345 120 61 61 51 51 51 402 221 221 193 193 193 2,419 1,267 1,267 1,063 1,063 1,063 3,584 1,831 1,831 1,639 1,639 1,639

Multifamily Dwelling Units 1,527 780 780 595 595 595 2,998 1,516 1,516 1,283 1,283 1,283 2,868 1,580 1,580 1,382 1,382 1,382 15,118 7,917 7,917 6,644 6,644 6,644 15,581 7,963 7,963 7,128 7,128 7,128

Total Dwelling Units 2,357 1,182 1,182 894 894 894 780 490 490 470 470 470 910 450 450 525 525 525 2,644 1,313 1,313 1,742 1,742 1,742 2,939 1,486 1,486 1,645 1,645 1,645

Retail Employees 4,279 2,145 2,145 1,943 1,943 1,943 1,170 700 700 905 905 905 1,610 810 810 905 905 905 2,722 1,345 1,345 1,901 1,901 1,901 4,899 2,450 2,450 3,222 3,222 3,222

Office Employees

Industrial Employees 288 135 135 128 128 128 209 140 140 0 0 0 239 120 120 65 65 65 445 226 226 368 368 368 799 395 395 375 375 375

6,924 3,462 3,462 2,965 2,965 2,965 2,159 1,330 1,330 1,375 1,375 1,375 2,759 1,380 1,380 1,495 1,495 1,495 5,811 2,884 2,884 4,011 4,011 4,011 8,637 4,331 4,331 5,242 5,242 5,242

Total Employees

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 Employee Space Ratios Employee space ratios were used in CommunityViz to convert build out potential for non‐residential development (in square feet) to available supply for the growth allocation process (in employees). Ratios used for the conversion followed information published in the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition and/or several development impact fee studies completed for areas in the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Region. A brief summary of the three employee space ratios and their key assumptions follows: 1. Office – 4.50 employees per 1,000 s.f. The office employee space ratio is based on information published in ITE’s Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition for ITE Code 750 (Office Park). A typical office park in the region was assumed to be between 50,000 and 100,000 square feet in size (gross floor area). Average weekday trip rates published for ITE 750 assume 13.65 trips per 1,000 square feet and 3.14 trips per employee for this range of development. The ratio (13.65 / 3.14 = 4.347) was raised to 4.50 employees per 1,000 square feet for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0. 2. Retail – 3.00 employees per 1,000 s.f. The retail employee space ratio is based on information published in ITE’s Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition for ITE Codes 812, 815, 820, 850, 854, 932 and 934 (Building Materials/Lumber Store, Free Standing Discount Store, Shopping Center, Supermarket, Discount Supermarket, High‐Turnover Sit‐Down Restaurant and Fast Food Restaurant with a Drive‐ Through Window) and several development impact fee studies completed for areas in the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Region. Average weekday trip rates published for the ITE Codes (per 1,000 square feet and per employee) were compared as follows:  ITE 812 – 45.16 trips per 1,000 s.f. / 32.12 employees per 1,000 s.f. = 1.41  ITE 815 – 57.24 trips per 1,000 s.f. / 28.84 employees per 1,000 s.f. = 1.98  ITE 820 – 2.22 ^  ITE 850/854 – 102.24 trips per 1,000 s.f. / 92.74 employees per 1,000 s.f. = 1.10  ITE 932 – 5.64 ^  ITE 934 – 5.00 ^ The average employee space ratio for the six ITE Codes is 2.891 ((1.41 + 1.98 + 2.22 + 1.10 + 5.64 + 5.00) / 6 = 2.891). The ratio was raised to 3.00 employees per 1,000 s.f. for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model v. 2.0. ^ = An employee space ratio could not be calculated using rates published in ITE’s Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition for this ITE Code. The ratio used here was developed by TischlerBise as part of a development impact fee for Summerville, SC published in May 2002 (and updated Kimley‐Horn and Associates, Inc. in February 2010), and is widely cited in similar studies across the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Region.

3. Industrial – 2.00 employees per 1,000 s.f. The industrial employee space ratio is based on information published in ITE’s Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition for ITE Code 130 (Industrial Park). Average weekday trip rates published for ITE 130 assume 6.83 trips per 1,000 square feet and 3.34 trips per employee. The ratio (6.83 / 3.34 = 2.04) was lowered to 2.00 employees per 1,000 s.f. for the George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0.

Section C: Technical Appendix CommunityViz Model Architecture

Remaining Development Potential

Development Lookup Table

Place Type Assignments

Site Efficiency Factor

Your Vision, Our Future Place Type Summary Document, Section B (21 categories)

Density Intensity (FAR)

Development Status

Jurisdiction

Land Use Mix

Stafford County

Fredericksburg

Open Space

Spotsylvania County

Bowling Green

Agriculture

King George County

Port Royal

Developed

Layer Identification & Data Manipulation

Under-Developed

Caroline County

Committed Development Undeveloped

Build Out Potential Analysis

Resource Protection Areas (+)

Jurisdiction-Specific Application

Environmental Easements (+)

Conservation Suitability Score

Conservation Easements (+) YVOF Weights

National & State Park Property (+)

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model v. 2.0

100-Yr Floodplain (+)

Layer Identification & Data Manipulation

Land Suitability Analysis

Layer Identification & Data Manipulation

Region-Wide Application

Areas Not Available for Development

Resource Protection Areas

Water Service Areas (+)

YVOF Weights

Carrying Capacity Analysis

General Model Architecture

Region-Wide Application

Development Suitability Score

Areas Available for Development

Battlefield Landscapes (+) VCLNA Designated Eco-Cores (+)

George Washington Region v. 2.0 Application

CommunityViz Model Build Flow Diagram

August 4, 2015

Existing / Committed Development Inventory

Sewer Service Areas (+)

One Model, GW Region

CommunityViz v. 4.4 Technology

Water Bodies

Proximity to Major Roads (+)

Graduated Grid Cell Format

Adapt / Expand YVOF Methodology

Military Base Holdings

Interchange Locations (+)

Seven Reporting Geographies

Be Modest, Stay Small, Keep It Simple

Environmental Easements Battlefield Landscapes

Interchange Locations, Area of Influence, 1 mi (+)

Conservation Easements

Major Intersections (+)

National Park Property

Major Activity Centers (+)

Right-of-Way

Major Activity Centers, Area of Influence, 3 mi (+) Primary Growth Areas (+)

Single Family D.U.â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Conservation LSA Scores (-)

Multifamily D.U.â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Retail Employees Office Employees Industrial Employees

Population & Employment Control Totals by Horizon Year

Growth Allocation / Assessment Jurisdiction-Specific Application

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Interim Year Horizon Allocations

Performance Measures Jurisdiction-Specific Application

Seven Reporting Geographies

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model

Stafford County

£ ¤ 301

£ ¤

£ ¤ 218

· Æ

City of Fredericksburg

· Æ

· Æ Spotsylvania County

206

King George County

Æ · · Æ 205

208

· Æ

§ ¦ ¨ 17

£ ¤ 2

· Æ 1

£ ¤

Caroline County

207

· Æ 301

£ ¤

[

· Æ

Miles

2.5

Graduated Grid Cell Model Architecture CommunityViz Model Boundary Political Boundary Interstate

US/VA Highway Water Bodies

Grid Cell Sizes Used for the George Washington Region

4 sq. mi.

2,560 ac

1 sq. mi. 640 ac

1,320 ft. per side

660 ft. per side

330 ft. per side

40 ac

10 ac

2.5 ac

Last Revised - February 10, 2016

Section C: Technical Appendix CommunityViz Equation Dictionary

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 CommunityViz Model Equation Dictionary ― All Modules CommunityViz Module

Common Name

Variable Name

Type

Units

Data Layer

Data Conversation or Assignment Data Conversation or Assignment Data Conversation or Assignment

Conversion Tool, Parcel‐Level to Grid‐Level Place Type Assignments Conversion Tool, Parcel‐Level to Grid‐Level Development Status Assignments Conversion Tool, Traffic Analysis Zone to Grid Cell Assignments

WORK WORK_2 WORK_3

Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute

Place Type Categories Development Status Categories Traffic Analysis Zone IDs

Five Parcel Source Files Five Parcel Source Files FAMPO TDM, v. 3 .0 & 4.0

Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity

Shape Area of a Grid Cell Area of a Grid Cell Deemed Highly‐Constrained for Development Area of a Grid Cell Remaining for Development

Shape_Area DEV_CON DEV_AREA

Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute

Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet

GWR_Grid_File GWR_Grid_File, CC_Composite_Layer GWR_Grid_File

Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential

Jurisdiction Name Jurisdiction Code Place Type Category Site Efficiency Factor Residential Density Non‐Residential Floor‐Area‐Ratio Percent Residential Percent Non‐Residential Percent Single Family Residential Percent Multifamily Residential Percent Office Percent Retail Percent Industrial Area of a Grid Cell Available for Lots or Parcels Future Development Potential, Single Family Dwelling Units Future Development Potential, Multifamily Dwelling Units Future Development Potential, Office Square Feet Future Development Potential, Retail Square Feet Future Development Potential, Industrial Square Feet Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Single Family Dwelling Units Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Multifamily Dwelling Units Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Office Square Feet Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Office Employees Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Retail Square Feet Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Retail Employees Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Industrial Square Feet Remaining Development Potential Based on Development Status, Industrial Employees Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2030

JURIS_NAME JURIS_CD PT_CAT SITE_EFF DENSITY FAR PERCENT_RES PERCENT_NONRES PERCENT_SF PERCENT_MF PERCENT_OFF PERCENT_RET PERCENT_IND BUILD_AREA FDP_SF_DU FDP_MF_DU FDP_OFF_SF FDP_RET_SF FDP_IND_SF SCRO_SF_DU SCRO_MF_DU SCRO_OFF_SF SCRO_OFF_EMP SCRO_RET_SF SCRO_RET_EMP SCRO_IND_SF SCRO_IND_EMP BOP_CARO_SF_20 BOP_CARO_SF_25 BOP_CARO_SF_30 BOP_CARO_SF_35 BOP_CARO_SF_40 BOP_CARO_SF_45 BOP_CARO_MF_20 BOP_CARO_MF_25 BOP_CARO_MF_30 BOP_CARO_MF_35 BOP_CARO_MF_40 BOP_CARO_MF_45 BOP_CARO_OFF_20 BOP_CARO_OFF_25 BOP_CARO_OFF_30 BOP_CARO_OFF_35 BOP_CARO_OFF_40 BOP_CARO_OFF_45 BOP_CARO_RET_20 BOP_CARO_RET_25 BOP_CARO_RET_30

Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute

City, Town or County N/A N/A Percentage Dwelling Units per Acre Ratio Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Square Feet Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Square Feet Employees Square Feet Employees Square Feet Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx DEV_LOOKUP_TABLE.xlsx GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version)

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 CommunityViz Model Equation Dictionary ― All Modules (cont.) CommunityViz Module Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential Build Out Potential

Common Name Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2040

Variable Name BOP_CARO_RET_35 BOP_CARO_RET_40 BOP_CARO_RET_45 BOP_CARO_IND_20 BOP_CARO_IND_25 BOP_CARO_IND_30 BOP_CARO_IND_35 BOP_CARO_IND_40 BOP_CARO_IND_45 BOP_FRED_SF_20 BOP_FRED_SF_25 BOP_FRED_SF_30 BOP_FRED_SF_35 BOP_FRED_SF_40 BOP_FRED_SF_45 BOP_FRED_MF_20 BOP_FRED_MF_25 BOP_FRED_MF_30 BOP_FRED_MF_35 BOP_FRED_MF_40 BOP_FRED_MF_45 BOP_FRED_OFF_20 BOP_FRED_OFF_25 BOP_FRED_OFF_30 BOP_FRED_OFF_35 BOP_FRED_OFF_40 BOP_FRED_OFF_45 BOP_FRED_RET_20 BOP_FRED_RET_25 BOP_FRED_RET_30 BOP_FRED_RET_35 BOP_FRED_RET_40 BOP_FRED_RET_45 BOP_FRED_IND_20 BOP_FRED_IND_25 BOP_FRED_IND_30 BOP_FRED_IND_35 BOP_FRED_IND_40 BOP_FRED_IND_45 BOP_KING_SF_20 BOP_KING_SF_25 BOP_KING_SF_30 BOP_KING_SF_35 BOP_KING_SF_40 BOP_KING_SF_45 BOP_KING_MF_20 BOP_KING_MF_25 BOP_KING_MF_30 BOP_KING_MF_35 BOP_KING_MF_40 BOP_KING_MF_45 BOP_KING_OFF_20 BOP_KING_OFF_25 BOP_KING_OFF_30 BOP_KING_OFF_35 BOP_KING_OFF_40

Type Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute

Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

Data Layer GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version)

Common Name Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2020

Variable Name BOP_KING_OFF_45 BOP_KING_RET_20 BOP_KING_RET_25 BOP_KING_RET_30 BOP_KING_RET_35 BOP_KING_RET_40 BOP_KING_RET_45 BOP_KING_IND_20 BOP_KING_IND_25 BOP_KING_IND_30 BOP_KING_IND_35 BOP_KING_IND_40 BOP_KING_IND_45 BOP_SPOT_SF_20 BOP_SPOT_SF_25 BOP_SPOT_SF_30 BOP_SPOT_SF_35 BOP_SPOT_SF_40 BOP_SPOT_SF_45 BOP_SPOT_MF_20 BOP_SPOT_MF_25 BOP_SPOT_MF_30 BOP_SPOT_MF_35 BOP_SPOT_MF_40 BOP_SPOT_MF_45 BOP_SPOT_OFF_20 BOP_SPOT_OFF_25 BOP_SPOT_OFF_30 BOP_SPOT_OFF_35 BOP_SPOT_OFF_40 BOP_SPOT_OFF_45 BOP_SPOT_RET_20 BOP_SPOT_RET_25 BOP_SPOT_RET_30 BOP_SPOT_RET_35 BOP_SPOT_RET_40 BOP_SPOT_RET_45 BOP_SPOT_IND_20 BOP_SPOT_IND_25 BOP_SPOT_IND_30 BOP_SPOT_IND_35 BOP_SPOT_IND_40 BOP_SPOT_IND_45 BOP_STAF_SF_20 BOP_STAF_SF_25 BOP_STAF_SF_30 BOP_STAF_SF_35 BOP_STAF_SF_40 BOP_STAF_SF_45 BOP_STAF_MF_20 BOP_STAF_MF_25 BOP_STAF_MF_30 BOP_STAF_MF_35 BOP_STAF_MF_40 BOP_STAF_MF_45 BOP_STAF_OFF_20

Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 CommunityViz Model Equation Dictionary ― All Modules (cont.) CommunityViz Module

Common Name

Variable Name

Type

Units

Data Layer

Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2045 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2020 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2025 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2030 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2035 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2040 Available Supply for Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2045 Number of Office Employees per 1,000 Square Feet Number of Retail Employees per 1,000 Square Feet Number of Industrial Employees per 1,000 Square Feet

BOP_STAF_OFF_25 BOP_STAF_OFF_30 BOP_STAF_OFF_35 BOP_STAF_OFF_40 BOP_STAF_OFF_45 BOP_STAF_RET_20 BOP_STAF_RET_25 BOP_STAF_RET_30 BOP_STAF_RET_35 BOP_STAF_RET_40 BOP_STAF_RET_45 BOP_STAF_IND_20 BOP_STAF_IND_25 BOP_STAF_IND_30 BOP_STAF_IND_35 BOP_STAF_IND_40 BOP_STAF_IND_45 OFF_EMP_SPACE_RATIO RET_EMP_SPACE_RATIO IND_EMP_SPACE_RATIO

Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Assumption Assumption Assumption

Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees per 1,000 Square Feet Employees per 1,000 Square Feet Employees per 1,000 Square Feet

Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Land Suitability Analysis

Major Water Lines, Minimum Distance Major Sewer Lines, Minimum Distance Major Roads, Minimum Distance Major Intersections, Minimum Distance Interchange Locations, Minimum Distance Major Activity Centers, Minimum Distance Primary Growth Areas, Value of Overlap Area Interchange Location, Area of Influence, Value of Overlap Area Major Activity Centers, Area of Influence, Value of Overlap Area LSA Conservation Composite Score, Numeric Values, 0‐100 Raw Suitability Score for LSA Growth Calculation Proximity to Water Lines, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Proximity to Sewer Lines, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Proximity to Major Roads, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Proximity to Major Intersections, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Proximity to Interchange Locations, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Proximity to Major Activity Centers, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with Primary Growth Areas, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with Interchange Location, Area of Influence, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with Major Activity Center, Area of Influence, Normalized Score, 0‐100 LSA Conservation Composite Score, Normalized Score, 0‐100 LSA Growth Composite Score, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Yes/No Include Proximity to Major Intersections in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Major Intersections, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with Interchange Area of Influence in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Interchange Area of Influence, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with Major Activity Center Area of Influence in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Major Activity Center Area of Influence, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with Primary Growth Area in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Primary Growth Area, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Proximity to Major Roads in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Major Roads, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Proximity to Major Activity Centers in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Major Activity Centers, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Proximity to Interchanges in the LSA Calculations

PRX_WTR Raw Value PRX_SWR Raw Value PRX_RDS Raw Value PRX_M_INT Raw Value PRX_INCH Raw Value PRX_AC Raw Value OVR_PGA Raw Value OVR_INCG Raw Value OVR_ACB Raw Value NUM_CON Raw Value Raw LSA_GROWTH Score PRX_WTR PRX_SWR PRX_RDS PRX_M_INT PRX_INCG PRX_AC OVR_PGA OVR_INCG OVR_ACB NUM_CON LSA_GROWTH Use PRX_M_INT PRX_M_INT Weight Use OVR_INCG OVR_INCH Weight Use OVR_ACB OVR_ACB Weight Use OVR_PGA OVR_PGA Weight Use PRX_RDS PRX_RDS Weight Use PRX_AC PRX_AC Weight Use PRX_INCG

Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption

Lineal Feet Lineal Feet Lineal Feet Lineal Feet Lineal Feet Lineal Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No

GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version)

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 CommunityViz Model Equation Dictionary ― All Modules (cont.) CommunityViz Module

Common Name

Variable Name

Type

Units

Data Layer

Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Interchanges, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Proximity to Sewer Service in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Sewer Service, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Proximity to Water Service in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Proximity to Water Service, 0‐10 Conservation Easements, Value of Overlap Area VCLNA Designated Eco‐Cores, Value of Overlap Area Environmental Easements, Value of Overlap Area 100‐Year Floodplains, Value of Overlap Area National Park Property, Value of Overlap Area State Park Property, Value of Overlap Area Resource Protection Areas, Value of Overlap Area Raw Suitability Score for LSA CONSERV Calculation Overlap with Conservation Easements, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with VCLNA Designated Eco‐Cores, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with Environment Easements, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with 100‐Year Floodplains, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with National Park Property, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with State Park Property, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Overlap with Resource Protection Areas, Normalized Score, 0‐100 LSA Conservation Composite Score, Normalized Score, 0‐100 Yes/No Include Overlap with Resource Protection Area in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Resource Protection Areas, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with State Parks in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with State Parks, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with 100‐Year Floodplains in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with 100‐Year Floodplains, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with Environmental Easements in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Environmental Easements, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with National Park Property in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with National Park Property, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Overlap with Conservation Easements in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of Overlap with Conservation Easements, 0‐10 Yes/No Include Numeric Score for LSA Conservation in the LSA Calculations Weighting for the Relative Importance of LSA Conservation Composite Score, 0‐10

PRX_INCG Weight USE PRX_Sewer PRX_Sewer Weight Use PRX_WTR PRX_WTR Weight OVR_CON Raw Value OVR_ECO Raw Value OVR_ENV Raw Value OVR_FLD Raw Value OVR_NPB Raw Value OVR_PARK Raw Value OVR_RPA Raw Value Raw LSA CONSERV Score OVR_CON OVR_ECO OVR_ENV OVR_FLD OVR_NPB OVR_PARK OVR_RPA LSA CONSERV Use OVR_RPA OVR_RPA Weight Use OVR_PARK OVR_PARK Weight Use OVR_FLD OVR_FLD Weight Use OVR_ENV OVR_ENV Weight Use OVR_NPB OVR_NPB Weight Use OVR_CON OVR_CON Weight Use NUM_CON NUM_CON Weight

Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption Assumption

Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Square Feet Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Calculated Score, 0‐100 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10 Yes/No Weighted Score, 0‐10

Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation

Designated Growth Area Horizon Year General Description of Allocation Period Single Family Dwelling Units Multifamily Dwelling Units Retail Employees Office Employees Industrial Employees Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045

GROWTH_AREA HRZ_YEAR DESCRIPTION SF_DU MF_DU RET_EMP OFF_EMP IND_EMP CARO_SF_20 CARO_SF_25 CARO_SF_30 CARO_SF_35 CARO_SF_40 CARO_SF_45 CARO_MF_20 CARO_MF_25 CARO_MF_30 CARO_MF_35 CARO_MF_40 CARO_MF_45

Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Attribute Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator

N/A Year N/A Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units

CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 CommunityViz Model Equation Dictionary ― All Modules (cont.) CommunityViz Module Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation Growth Allocation

Common Name Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025

Variable Name CARO_OFF_20 CARO_OFF_25 CARO_OFF_30 CARO_OFF_35 CARO_OFF_40 CARO_OFF_45 CARO_RET_20 CARO_RET_25 CARO_RET_30 CARO_RET_35 CARO_RET_40 CARO_RET_45 CARO_IND_20 CARO_IND_25 CARO_IND_30 CARO_IND_35 CARO_IND_40 CARO_IND_45 FRED_SF_20 FRED_SF_25 FRED_SF_30 FRED_SF_35 FRED_SF_40 FRED_SF_45 FRED_MF_20 FRED_MF_25 FRED_MF_30 FRED_MF_35 FRED_MF_40 FRED_MF_45 FRED_OFF_20 FRED_OFF_25 FRED_OFF_30 FRED_OFF_35 FRED_OFF_40 FRED_OFF_45 FRED_RET_20 FRED_RET_25 FRED_RET_30 FRED_RET_35 FRED_RET_40 FRED_RET_45 FRED_IND_20 FRED_IND_25 FRED_IND_30 FRED_IND_35 FRED_IND_40 FRED_IND_45 KING_SF_20 KING_SF_25 KING_SF_30 KING_SF_35 KING_SF_40 KING_SF_45 KING_MF_20 KING_MF_25

Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units

Common Name Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, King George County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, King George County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035

Variable Name KING_MF_30 KING_MF_35 KING_MF_40 KING_MF_45 KING_OFF_20 KING_OFF_25 KING_OFF_30 KING_OFF_35 KING_OFF_40 KING_OFF_45 KING_RET_20 KING_RET_25 KING_RET_30 KING_RET_35 KING_RET_40 KING_RET_45 KING_IND_20 KING_IND_25 KING_IND_30 KING_IND_35 KING_IND_40 KING_IND_45 SPOT_SF_20 SPOT_SF_25 SPOT_SF_30 SPOT_SF_35 SPOT_SF_40 SPOT_SF_45 SPOT_MF_20 SPOT_MF_25 SPOT_MF_30 SPOT_MF_35 SPOT_MF_40 SPOT_MF_45 SPOT_OFF_20 SPOT_OFF_25 SPOT_OFF_30 SPOT_OFF_35 SPOT_OFF_40 SPOT_OFF_45 SPOT_RET_20 SPOT_RET_25 SPOT_RET_30 SPOT_RET_35 SPOT_RET_40 SPOT_RET_45 SPOT_IND_20 SPOT_IND_25 SPOT_IND_30 SPOT_IND_35 SPOT_IND_40 SPOT_IND_45 STAF_SF_20 STAF_SF_25 STAF_SF_30 STAF_SF_35

Common Name Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Control Total, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Caroline County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045

Variable Name STAF_SF_40 STAF_SF_45 STAF_MF_20 STAF_MF_25 STAF_MF_30 STAF_MF_35 STAF_MF_40 STAF_MF_45 STAF_OFF_20 STAF_OFF_25 STAF_OFF_30 STAF_OFF_35 STAF_OFF_40 STAF_OFF_45 STAF_RET_20 STAF_RET_25 STAF_RET_30 STAF_RET_35 STAF_RET_40 STAF_RET_45 STAF_IND_20 STAF_IND_25 STAF_IND_30 STAF_IND_35 STAF_IND_40 STAF_IND_45 ALLO_CARO_SF_20 ALLO_CARO_SF_25 ALLO_CARO_SF_30 ALLO_CARO_SF_35 ALLO_CARO_SF_40 ALLO_CARO_SF_45 ALLO_CARO_MF_20 ALLO_CARO_MF_25 ALLO_CARO_MF_30 ALLO_CARO_MF_35 ALLO_CARO_MF_40 ALLO_CARO_MF_45 ALLO_CARO_OFF_20 ALLO_CARO_OFF_25 ALLO_CARO_OFF_30 ALLO_CARO_OFF_35 ALLO_CARO_OFF_40 ALLO_CARO_OFF_45 ALLO_CARO_RET_20 ALLO_CARO_RET_25 ALLO_CARO_RET_30 ALLO_CARO_RET_35 ALLO_CARO_RET_40 ALLO_CARO_RET_45 ALLO_CARO_IND_20 ALLO_CARO_IND_25 ALLO_CARO_IND_30 ALLO_CARO_IND_35 ALLO_CARO_IND_40 ALLO_CARO_IND_45

Type Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Indicator Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula

Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

Data Layer CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx CONTROL_TOTALS.xlsx GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version) GWR_Grid_File.shp (geodatabase version)

Common Name Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Fredericksburg, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, King George County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, King George County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, King George County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, King George County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025

Variable Name ALLO_FRED_SF_20 ALLO_FRED_SF_25 ALLO_FRED_SF_30 ALLO_FRED_SF_35 ALLO_FRED_SF_40 ALLO_FRED_SF_45 ALLO_FRED_MF_20 ALLO_FRED_MF_25 ALLO_FRED_MF_30 ALLO_FRED_MF_35 ALLO_FRED_MF_40 ALLO_FRED_MF_45 ALLO_FRED_OFF_20 ALLO_FRED_OFF_25 ALLO_FRED_OFF_30 ALLO_FRED_OFF_35 ALLO_FRED_OFF_40 ALLO_FRED_OFF_45 ALLO_FRED_RET_20 ALLO_FRED_RET_25 ALLO_FRED_RET_30 ALLO_FRED_RET_35 ALLO_FRED_RET_40 ALLO_FRED_RET_45 ALLO_FRED_IND_20 ALLO_FRED_IND_25 ALLO_FRED_IND_30 ALLO_FRED_IND_35 ALLO_FRED_IND_40 ALLO_FRED_IND_45 ALLO_KING_SF_20 ALLO_KING_SF_25 ALLO_KING_SF_30 ALLO_KING_SF_35 ALLO_KING_SF_40 ALLO_KING_SF_45 ALLO_KING_MF_20 ALLO_KING_MF_25 ALLO_KING_MF_30 ALLO_KING_MF_35 ALLO_KING_MF_40 ALLO_KING_MF_45 ALLO_KING_OFF_20 ALLO_KING_OFF_25 ALLO_KING_OFF_30 ALLO_KING_OFF_35 ALLO_KING_OFF_40 ALLO_KING_OFF_45 ALLO_KING_RET_20 ALLO_KING_RET_25 ALLO_KING_RET_30 ALLO_KING_RET_35 ALLO_KING_RET_40 ALLO_KING_RET_45 ALLO_KING_IND_20 ALLO_KING_IND_25

Type Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula

Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

Common Name Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, King George County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Spotsylvania County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035

Variable Name ALLO_KING_IND_30 ALLO_KING_IND_35 ALLO_KING_IND_40 ALLO_KING_IND_45 ALLO_SPOT_SF_20 ALLO_SPOT_SF_25 ALLO_SPOT_SF_30 ALLO_SPOT_SF_35 ALLO_SPOT_SF_40 ALLO_SPOT_SF_45 ALLO_SPOT_MF_20 ALLO_SPOT_MF_25 ALLO_SPOT_MF_30 ALLO_SPOT_MF_35 ALLO_SPOT_MF_40 ALLO_SPOT_MF_45 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_20 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_25 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_30 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_35 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_40 ALLO_SPOT_OFF_45 ALLO_SPOT_RET_20 ALLO_SPOT_RET_25 ALLO_SPOT_RET_30 ALLO_SPOT_RET_35 ALLO_SPOT_RET_40 ALLO_SPOT_RET_45 ALLO_SPOT_IND_20 ALLO_SPOT_IND_25 ALLO_SPOT_IND_30 ALLO_SPOT_IND_35 ALLO_SPOT_IND_40 ALLO_SPOT_IND_45 ALLO_STAF_SF_20 ALLO_STAF_SF_25 ALLO_STAF_SF_30 ALLO_STAF_SF_35 ALLO_STAF_SF_40 ALLO_STAF_SF_45 ALLO_STAF_MF_20 ALLO_STAF_MF_25 ALLO_STAF_MF_30 ALLO_STAF_MF_35 ALLO_STAF_MF_40 ALLO_STAF_MF_45 ALLO_STAF_OFF_20 ALLO_STAF_OFF_25 ALLO_STAF_OFF_30 ALLO_STAF_OFF_35 ALLO_STAF_OFF_40 ALLO_STAF_OFF_45 ALLO_STAF_RET_20 ALLO_STAF_RET_25 ALLO_STAF_RET_30 ALLO_STAF_RET_35

Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

Common Name Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2030 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, Stafford County, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Single Family Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2026 to 2030 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Multifamily Dwelling Units, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2026 to 2030 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Office Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2026 to 2030 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Retail Employees, 2041 to 2045 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2010 to 2020 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2021 to 2025 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2026 to 2030 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2031 to 2035 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2036 to 2040 Growth Allocation, George Washington Region, Industrial Employees, 2041 to 2045

Variable Name ALLO_STAF_RET_40 ALLO_STAF_RET_45 ALLO_STAF_IND_20 ALLO_STAF_IND_25 ALLO_STAF_IND_30 ALLO_STAF_IND_35 ALLO_STAF_IND_40 ALLO_STAF_IND_45 ALLO_GWR_SF_20 ALLO_GWR_SF_25 ALLO_GWR_SF_30 ALLO_GWR_SF_35 ALLO_GWR_SF_40 ALLO_GWR_SF_45 ALLO_GWR_MF_20 ALLO_GWR_MF_25 ALLO_GWR_MF_30 ALLO_GWR_MF_35 ALLO_GWR_MF_40 ALLO_GWR_MF_45 ALLO_GWR_OFF_20 ALLO_GWR_OFF_25 ALLO_GWR_OFF_30 ALLO_GWR_OFF_35 ALLO_GWR_OFF_40 ALLO_GWR_OFF_45 ALLO_GWR_RET_20 ALLO_GWR_RET_25 ALLO_GWR_RET_30 ALLO_GWR_RET_35 ALLO_GWR_RET_40 ALLO_GWR_RET_45 ALLO_GWR_IND_20 ALLO_GWR_IND_25 ALLO_GWR_IND_30 ALLO_GWR_IND_35 ALLO_GWR_IND_40 ALLO_GWR_IND_45

Type Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Wizard‐Driven Formula Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute Dynamic Attribute

Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees

Section C: Technical Appendix CommunityViz General Development Lookup Table ― Community Plans Growth Scenario

George Washington Region CommunityViz Model, v. 2.0 Community Plans Growth Scenario Development Lookup Table ― Values Summarized by Jurisdiction Place Type Code

Site Efficiency Factor

Density

Floor‐Area‐Ratio

% Residential

% Single Family

% Multifamily

% Non‐Residential

% Office

% Retail

% Industiral

Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County Unincorporated Caroline County

Jurisdiction

Jurisdiction Code 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Preserved Open Space Working Farm Rural Living Rural Cross Roads Mobile Home Community Large‐Lot, Residential Neighborhood Small‐Lot, Suburban Neighborhood Multifamily Suburban Neighborood Mixed‐Use Neighborhood Urban Neighborhood Town Center Metropolitan Center Suburban Commercial Center Suburban Office Center Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Miliatary Base Civic & Institutional Facilities Transit‐Oriented Development Regional Airport

Place Type Category

POS WF RL RCR MHC LLRN SLSN MFSN MUN UN TC MC SCC SOC LI HI MIL CIV TOD RA

0% 100% 95% 80% 95% 90% 90% 85% 80% 90% 70% 90% 90% 80% 90% 100% 0% 80% 85% 15%

0.00 0.04 0.30 0.00 0.15 0.60 2.00 5.25 8.00 2.00 4.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.35 0.65 0.70 0.25 0.30 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.25 1.50 0.00

0% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 80% 25% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60% 0%

0% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 30% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 70% 80% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 20% 75% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 40% 100%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 30% 60% 70% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 50% 0%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 70% 40% 30% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County Unincorporated King George County

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

POS WF RL RCR MHC LLRN SLSN MFSN MUN UN TC MC SCC SOC LI HI MIL CIV TOD RA

0% 100% 95% 80% 95% 90% 90% 85% 80% 90% 70% 90% 90% 80% 90% 100% 0% 80% 85% 15%

0.00 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.40 0.30 2.00 6.00 8.00 6.50 4.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00