Opportunities and challenges CN acknowledges that there are challenges facing Newcastle in our journey to becoming a liveable, sustainable, inclusive global city. CSIRO’s global megatrend research has identified significant shifts in environmental, economic and social conditions that will play out over the coming decades. Acknowledgement of these challenges and identification of how they can be mitigated, or even turned into opportunities, will be key to delivering Newcastle’s vision.
Population challenges When compared to Australian trends, Newcastle has a number of unique population challenges. These include: Moderate population growth: A past challenge for Newcastle has been our lagging population growth compared to Australia’s other major population centres, which may contribute to slower economic diversification, output and opportunities. In the period 2019-2020, Newcastle’s population grew by 1.1%, compared to a capital city average growth rate of 1.4%. Newcastle’s population grew slowly compared to similar regional centres like Geelong (2.3%), Adelaide (2.5%) and the Gold Coast (2.4%).
Low education At the 2016 Census, just over half (53.1%) of Newcastle’s population above the age of 20 had attained a post-school qualification of Certificate III or above. With 9 out of 10 future jobs estimated to require post-school qualifications, there is likely to be a significant decline in demand for an unqualified labour force. This will have a substantial impact on the Newcastle economy, polarising employment opportunities and increasing economic inequality into the future.
Climate change The climate emergency has become the key social and economic challenge of the 21st century. We are already beginning to glimpse the impacts of a changing climate on our everyday lives. The likely effects of more extreme climate events include more frequent and widespread bushfires, flooding, extreme heat, and increased risk of disease and pandemics – all with indeterminate impact on our economic and social fabric.
Local brain drain: Regional population data suggests that the population cohort most likely to move away from Newcastle is people aged 15–24. This is the age group most likely to be engaging in post-school education and entering the workforce. Lack of diversity: Compared to the rest of NSW’s population, residents of Newcastle are more likely to have been born in Australia (86.1% versus 72.4%) and to only speak English at home rather than other languages (90% versus 74.9%). This may signify less exposure to diverse cultures and innovative practices, and fewer international connections.
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