scenarios s c e nar i os for the brand xeirs Clara Bonnet
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INTRODUCTION What does the future hold for us? That’s a question people always ask themselves. We can’t predict it but we can make up possibilities that could happen. That’s what a scenario does: It is an imaginary situation, set in the tomorrow, based on important, uncertain developments from now. It helps businesses or even the military to change and adapt in the right direction. With all possible futures in mind, better decisions can be made now or in case of an emergency. To explain it with an example: In order to know what to do if a plane crashes, you have to know all the ways it could crash, so that you can make a plan on how to react. We use this report to test if my brand xeirs will still be needed tomorrow or how it has to adapt to be successful in the future. To give the scenarios direction and individuality I chose two different very uncertain trends, that will have a high impact on our future. These scenario drivers are questions that can be answered with two extremes that will make up the four directions of our graph. From there four different situations for the year 2035 can be developed. How will the world react to the ongoing climate change? Will we go on like now or take actions and change our behaviour? The other question asks how further developed technology will impact our lives. Either by technology taking over everything or by supporting us instead of replacing the human. I chose these two drivers in the belief that climate change will have such a high impact on all parts of our lives. Our actions or lack of them will form our future, not only environmentally but also on a political, economic and societal level. Technology on the other hand is developing quickly without any doubt. It already influences us in the way we communicate, learn and produce. But it is very uncertain what might happen when the machines take over more parts, when they replace more and more humans. One scenario is written out in details with a short summary at the beginning. The second one is described in bullet points. At the end separate and a general conclusion are made, where the brand is connected with the scenarios.
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SCenario drivers
Driver 1: How will the world react to the ongoing climate change? Driver 2: How will further developed technology impact our life?
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B.A.U. we don’t change anything
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technology taking over our life
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technology supporting our life
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global progress for solutions to stop climate change
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scenario one g l o b a l
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Scenario one represents a very sustainable world to stop climate change. In a rather global society in which countries help each other for a greener world, green energy is dominating. Yet there are “excluded territories” where wars are still not solved. Further developed technology takes over a lot of labour but the human stays important in order to manage the machines. With this machination people have to work less. The large middle class is formed through more evenly distributed salaries and the “30 hour week”. These two factors lead to an increased consumption not fitting with the sustainable approach of governments. Nevertheless fashion is sustainable in production and materials. A full recycling loop and smart clothing enhance life.
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The economy concentrates on sustainability to stop the ongoing climate change. Since the 2025 UN agreement “GREENERGY”, wind, sun and water are dominating the energy sector. Continent wide networks provide power to level out discrepancies between naturally more and less advantaged nations (euroelectric.org, 2016, ec.europa. eu, 2016). A rising number of global regulations help to keep the water clean from plastic, chemicals and toxins (unep.org, 2017). Factories now get controlled more often and small companies get financial support from the government to be able to use new filter and trash systems (huffingtonpost.com, 2016). The world has evolved in a more global system trying to benefit and help each other rather than being rivals on the market as the leaders of the big 5 (China, India, US, EU, Brazil) realized that climate change has to be stopped. With all the new regulations and consequences climate warming was slowed down. Snow has become a rare sight but at least the glaciers stopped melting. The four seasons have been shifted slightly and every once in a while a heavy storm appears. It is not ideal but meteorologists say it could have become far worse (weather.com, 2017). Big wealthy countries changed their political position not only caring about themselves but pulling up less fortunate nations for a greener, more sustainable world. By providing self-help programmes with knowledge and new technologies instead of money they can finally make a step towards independent nations. Religious wars and conflicts have not been solved to this date which leads to the “excluded territories” that are banned from global programmes and services until they are over. The disposition of their refugees that are only victims of these wars is still a very controversial topic. As western intervention didn’t turn out to be effective they rather keep out of the crisis and accept and help the resulting refugees. Stable governments argue that the global sustainable approach will eliminate climate and economic refugees.
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Political conflicts about fossil resources have been stopped with the innovation of hydrogen cell machines (businessinsider.com, 2016, livescience.com, 2012). Technology is a constant and even more developing field and present in production, distribution and even service. “Dronelivery” is a popular widespread service that enables even people in remote areas to get any item of their choice in no time (flyingmag.com, 2017). However it doesn’t mean that the human is not necessary anymore. On the contrary: The regulation and coordination of the robots is a new job on its own. The machines have taken over a lot of work but it is the collaboration of men and machine that improves the quality of production and management ( +3 magazine, 2017). This development influences other working sectors: human interaction cannot be taken over by AI and is more important than ever. Caring for other people is one of the main jobs especially in a world with 13 percent of elderly over 65 (economist.com, 2014). While machination takes over a lot of the labour, there is less work in general and fewer working hours are necessary. To reduce stress levels and improve life quality most countries have the “30 hours week” included in their legislation. People are happier and healthier with this which reduces health costs drastically (studyfinds.org, 2017). To stop people from working over hours businesses and workers who follow this rule receive a bonus every 6 months. Everyone working more is excluded from the national health system and has to pay for all of their medical services themselves. Minimized hierarchies lead to a fairer distribution of salaries as higher positions don’t get paid overly extra. People earn enough to live even though they work less, due to the fact that social jobs are paid well and machines are a cheaper option taking over other low paid jobs. The newly gained free time and a good salary leads to the problem of increasing consumption. Governments massively fail to counteract this as any consequence is being heavily protested by consumers and businesses. In this globally regulated world, with a large middle class, individuality and personal expression is more important than ever. Genderfluidity and a variety of sexual orientations are accepted and openly expressed.
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F A S H I O N The fashion industry is more sustainable than ever: Natural fibres are rare as the soil is better used for food resources for the growing world population. Instead man-made fibres and nano technology are the standard. They offer a wide range of different textures and attributes such as wrinkle resistance, UV blocking and odor controlling. (nanowerk.com, 2016). Thanks to a unified colour library online in a cloud, endless back and forth shipping of fabric samples is not necessary anymore (+3 magazine 2017, telekom & Color Digital). Samples can also be viewed in virtual reality and easily adjusted so that the production can succeed quickly. As there are only purely man-made fibres used, old garments can easily be deconstructed and fully recycled (nanonextnl.nl, 2016). Production stays global but transportation emissions are reduced through green energy powered shipping. This change is led back to new global production legislations that control the emissions and natural resources. A small black market with natural textiles like cotton, wool and silk has emerged and is a constant threat to sustainable businesses. Especially the wealthier upper class try to get those exclusive illegal textiles to show their status in their circles. The consumer has not arrived at a total state of consciousness for the environment and with the new recycling methods consumption goes on. While seasonal collections and quick changes are trending, transparency is also an important issue for the customers: in the age of Ăźber-digitalisation every step of the production has to be visible and for that people are willing to pay a little more. Total transparent and sustainable brands are successful. Offering a drop-off to recycle older collections is a smart tool used by many brands: The customer gets rid of old garments that are out of season and the producer gets usable material for free. Fashion is a fast going endless loop. Wearable technology is no longer only a gadget but in full use: sensors detect the heart rate, blood pressure and temperature to benefit the wearers health. This way heart attacks can be predicted and tumours detected earlier (CNN.com , 2016). To be able to get the benefit of the technology but also have the latest trends, most brands adapted their upper garments through attachment mechanisms. That way the piece of clothing can be thrown away but the technology stays for the next item.
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Fashion is still a way of personal expression but combined with a more sustainable factor and health benefitting technology. People’s wardrobes are still full but change up extremely quick as the new recycling methods help their guilt. It is accepted to throw away clothes regularly and go with the new season. However manufacturers slowly but surely won’t be able to keep up with recycling the amount of textile. Some worried voices are already warning that this might lead to waste crisis similar to the “The Fast Fashion Crash” in 2020.
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scenario two ü b e r - d i g i t a l
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- economy focuses on technology and financial success rather than on sustainability - Nations are only interested in their own well being leading to a big gap: areas less affected by consequences of climate change are extremely wealthy while more affected countries extremely poor - oceans polluted with plastic and oil ( oil catastrophe 2020), natural water resources in dry areas are used up --> water is the most valuable resource, civil water wars between leftover people in those areas (ngwa.org, 2012) - natural catastrophes (heavy rains, big storms, long droughts) due to climate change (noaa.gov 2017, weather.com, 2015) challenge food production --> most meat grown in labs, vertical gardening inside (only in wealthy countries) (foxbusiness.com,2017 , Future Shock Magazine, 2017) - People in the “critical territories”fight for their survival - most of the rainforests are gone --> earth heating up even quicker - tropical areas less populated, northern hemisphere overpopulated - desertification led to migrations of thousands of people to safer cities (desertification source)
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- people mostly live in huge metropolises, small spaces, big uniformal buildings so that there’s space for everyone, very high buildings + very deep “buildings” underground for more space (source?) - Only underground trains are present in the megapolises as there’s no space for cars --> rich people drive fast and polluting cars for pleasure outside of city - Artificial intelligence replaces humans in every sort of service (robot salesmen, teachers, psychologists, doctors) (seeker.com, 2015) - mechanisation leaves only a few fields open to employ humans: research for innovation, entertainment and producing energy: people earn their money from producing power with their body strength on bicycles --> few rich, a lot of poor people fighting for the best jobs - loss of privacy with robots and cameras and sensors everywhere, über-digitalisation - Big companies in cities use all the data to market their products and services even better - Population in big cities not supposed to grow further, as there are still refugees to be expected --> one child policy was introduced, for a very high price the rights for more children can be bought - Any kind of gender and sexuality is accepted as long as they stick to the one child policy, homosexuality is held to a high status as these couples are less likely to get children
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- consumer owns few pieces of clothing that last very long - changing colour threads help to individualize these few pieces for more variety (sciencealert.com, 2016) - Real clothes are expensive --> majority of people own very little, small rich elite use clothing as status symbols - people express their sense of fashion online with digital avatars (theguardian.com, 2012) representing their persona, virtual fashion can be bought and downloaded online --> cheaper - online persona is more important than the look in real life as people communicate mainly digitally
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In a society with a large middle class, standing out and showing your individuality will be more important than ever. With a new acceptance for individuality regarding gender, new target groups could be attracted. That said xeirs will still be relevant but only if we bring sustainability and more transparency into the brand, as well as keeping up with new technological advancements in the fashion sector. Production has to be updated to a transparent and greener concept. For example closer factory locations, ecofriendly transportation and reduction of samples could be considered as a starting point.
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To be able to survive in a world similar to scenario two, xeirs has to invest into digital communication and innovation. Keeping up to latest developments in technology and digitalisation is key to staying an important brand for the costumer. Genderfluidity would stay at the core of the brand it might just be expressed in a slightly different way. Smart materials and good digital customer service could be a starting point. Newly developed techniques like trying on clothes online on a personal avatar or Virtual Mirrors in stores could help to keep up with other competitors. If it ever came as far as in scenario two, the transition from tangible porducts to almost exclusively digital ones could be a serious threat for this and most other fashion brands.
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Self expression will stay important for people it might just change in the way we show it, with new materials and techniques. This means xeirs should stay up to date with new fabric innovations as well as digital possibilities to connect with their customers. No matter how we will react to it, climate change is in fact happening already which means that sustainability will become more and more important for the world. In order to compete in the market xeirs will have to reconsider its production and materials. This way it can offer a true alternative to other sustainable brands, connected with their individual style and approach on genderfluidity.
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S O U R C E S lined up in the same order as appearing in the text p. 7 SCENARIO ONE GLOBAL OVERVIEW
Euroelectric , 2016, Eurolectric report: power distribution in Europe, From: http://www. eurelectric.org/media/113155/dso_report-web_final-2013-030-0764-01-e.pdf, [retrieved 25 May 2017] European Commision – EU Science Hub, 2016, DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATORS OBSERVATORY: From European Electricity Distribution Systems to Representative Distribution Networks, From: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/distribution-systemoperators-observatory-european-electricity-distribution-systems-representative, [retrieved 25 May 2017] UNEP Newscenter Press release, 2017, UN Declares War on Ocean Plastic, From: http://www. unep.org/newscentre/un-declares-war-ocean-plastic [retrieved 25 May 2017] Herrerla, C., 2016, This Genius Bucket Sucks Trash and Oil Right ut of the Sea, From: http:// www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/seabin-ocean-bucket_us_5681d22fe4b06fa68880fc60, [retrieved 25 May 2017] Weather.com, 2017, Global Warming and Climate Change: The Weather Company Stand, From: https://weather.com/science/environment/news/global-warming-weather-channelposition-statement-20141029 , [retrieved 27 May 2017]
p. 8 SCENARIO ONE SOCIETY AND TECHNOLOGY
Muoio, D., 2016, 8 hydrogen powered cars in the making right now, From: http://www. businessinsider.com/8-hydrogen-powered-cars-photos-2016-8?international=true&r=US&IR =T/#1-toyota-has-been-working-on-hydrogen-powered-cars-the-longest-having-put-23-yearsinto-the-technology-here-we-see-its-hydrogen-car-the-toyota-mirai-1, [retrieved 27 May 2017] Ayers, K., 2012, Science Fiction Turned Fact: Water Powered Cars, From: http://www. livescience.com/22586-hydrogen-powered-fuel-cells-refueling-stations-nsf-ria.html, [retrieved 27 May 2017] Mark, R., 2017, Amazon’s U.S. Drone Delivery Service Moves One Step Closer to Reality, From: http://www.flyingmag.com/amazons-us-drone-delivery-service-moves-one-step-closer-toreality, [retrieved 27 May 2017] Köckler, J., 2017, Wie viel Mensch braucht die Maschine?, +3 magazine N 33, April 2017, p. 6 The economist, 2014, Age invaders, From: http://www.economist.com/news/ briefing/21601248-generation-old-people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-alldo-so, [retrieved 25 May 2017] Steingold, D., 2017, Study: Working More Than 39 Hours A Week Harmful To Mental Health, From: https://www.studyfinds.org/study-finds-that-40-hour-workweeks-bad-for-mentalhealth/, [retrieved 27 May 2017]
p. 10 SCENARIO ONE FASHION
Berger, M., 2016, Nanotechnology in textiles - the new black, From: http://www.nanowerk. com/spotlight/spotid=42713.php, [retrieved 25 May 2017] Rickmann, H., 2017, Umdenken, loslegen, digital Dividende einfahren, +3 magazine N 33, April 2017, p. 9 Telekombusiness, 2017, Color Digital: Digitale Erfassung von Farben in der Modebranche mittels Managed Dynamic App Factory, From: https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=c4jC4O5kJ_8, [retrieved 25 May 2017] Nanonextnl.nl, 2016, The city of the future: everything will be reused thanks to nanotechnology, From: http://www.nanonextnl.nl/the-city-the-future-everything-will-bereused-thanks-to-nanotechnology/, [retrieved 27 May 2017] Marsh, J., 2016, The bionic skin that can feel a tumor, From: http://edition.cnn. com/2016/05/17/health/frontiers-takao-someya-eskin/, [retrieved 25 May 2017]
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Mullen, K., 2012, Information on Earth’s Water, From: http://www.ngwa.org/Fundamentals/ teachers/Pages/information-on-earth-water.aspx, [retrieved 27 May 2017] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2017, Climate change to shift global pattern of mild weather, From: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/climate-change-to-shiftglobal-pattern-of-mild-weather , [retrieved 25 May 2017] Weather.com, 2015, Weather in 2050: The Weather Channel Airs Special Show On How Climate Change is Reshaping Weather ,From: https://weather.com/science/environment/ news/weather-in-2050-climate-change-special-programming , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Scipioni, J., 2017, Lab-Grown Meat Coming to Supermarket Shelves Soon?, From: http://www. foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/01/lab-grown-meat-coming-to-supermarket-shelves-soon. html, [retrieved 27 May 2017] 2017, World of Things: The Growroom, Future Shock magazine by Lowdown, April/ May/ June 2017, p. 18
SOCIETY AND TECHNOLOGY
McDonald, G., 2015, 2035: Future A.I. Will Revolutionize Society, Economy, From: https://www. seeker.com/2035-future-ai-will-revolutionize-society-economy-1769924256.html, [retrieved 27 May 2017]
p. 13 SCENARIO TWO FASHION
Nield, D., 2016, New ‘Smart Threads’ Can Change The Colour of Your Clothes Instantly, From: https://www.sciencealert.com/new-smart-threads-can-change-the-colour-of-your-clothesinstantly, [retrieved 27 May 2017] Barnett, L., 2012, Online Clothes Shopping: Is an Avatar the Answer? From: https://www. theguardian.com/fashion/shortcuts/2012/feb/29/online-clothes-shopping-avatar, [retrieved 27 May 2017]
I M A G E S P. 6
Boeri Studio, 2014, Vertical forest, [image] From: https://www.stefanoboeriarchitetti.net/en/ portfolios/bosco-verticale/, [retrieved 27 May 2017] [image] From: http://www.enjoygoinggreen.com/all/green-energy-venture/, [retrieved 27 May 2017]
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Boffi, G., 2016, 3d image of futuristic drone, [image] From: https://www.digitaltrends.com/ cool-tech/google-patent-box-on-wheels-drone/ , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Williams Rus, J., [image] From: http://www.waterstechnology.com/industry-issuesinitiatives/2479318/man-or-machine-why-not-both , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Toyota, 2016, Toyota Mirai, [image] From: http://www.businessinsider.com/8-hydrogenpowered-cars-photos-2016-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T/#the-toyota-mirai-can-drivefor-312-miles-before-needing-a-refuel-and-reaches-a-top-speed-of-111-miles-per-hour-2, [retrieved 27 May 2017]
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Someya-Sekitani Group, 2016 , The Science Behind bionic skin [image] From: http://edition. cnn.com/2016/05/17/health/frontiers-takao-someya-eskin/ , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Lisotte Fleur, 2016, Ann for Pauline van Dongen: Wearable Solar T- Shirt, [image] From: http:// liselottefleur.com/filter/advertising/Ann-for-Pauline-van-Dongen , [retrieved 27 May 2017]
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2011, Megacity Future, [image] From: https://www.nationstates.net/nation=the_anacreon_ empire/detail=factbook/id=595267 , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Traksel, A., 2011, Meat cultured in laboratory conditions from stem cells, [image] From: http:// vesselnews.io/lab-grown-meat-coming-supermarket-shelves-soon/ , [retrieved 27 May 2017] Clugston, D., [image] From: http://www.davidclugston.com/#/PORTFOLIOS/OVERVIEW/5 [retrieved 27 May 2017]
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