The New Normal: Predicting climate impacts and building resilient communities

The New Normal

Predicting climate impacts and building resilient communities

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Acknowledgements

The primary funding for this work was generously provided by the Joyce Foundation. Additional support for Clean Wisconsin’s climate program work is provided by the Garfield Foundation.

Lead Author: Katy Walter, Clean Energy Specialist, Clean Wisconsin Several Clean Wisconsin staffers assisted with this report. Special thanks to: Keith Reopelle, Senior Policy Director Amanda Wegner, Creative Director Tyson Cook, Staff Scientist Sam Weis, Communications Director

About Clean Wisconsin

Clean Wisconsin is an environmental advocacy organization that works to protect Wisconsin’s clean water and air and advocates for clean energy by being an effective voice in the state legislature and by holding elected officials and polluters accountable. Clean Wisconsin was founded in 1970 as Wisconsin’s Environmental Decade and is the state’s largest environmental advocacy organization.

page 2

The New Normal

Preparing for the New Normal Unprecedented warm spring temperatures interrupt Wisconsin’s annual spring maple syrup harvest, leaving the industry hurting from a 68% decline in production.

Cherry farmers from Door County and apple farmers in Bayfield watch helplessly as their fruit trees blossom early, only to be destroyed by frost. In the midst of one of the worst droughts in memory, corn farmers in southern Wisconsin hope for rain to save their crops, as over 6 inches of rain falls on Northern Wisconsin, flooding UW-Superior buildings and causing over $8.5 million in damage.

on many facets of life in Wisconsin. Agriculture and outdoor recreation, two prime areas susceptible to a changing climate, are critical to our way of life and key pillars of our economy. Unfortunately, we are already beginning to see major impacts in these areas. Wisconsin is experiencing the sharpest increase in severe rain1 and is among the states that are warming at the fastest rate2; Climate Central ranked Wisconsin No. 1 overall for record-breaking heat in 2012.3 Going forward, we will continue to be one of the most affected states.

Overall, WICCI’s modeling estimates with 90% confidence that Wisconsin may see temperatures rise by 4°F to 9°F by 2050. This change will have significant impacts throughout the state, with, for example, twice as many 90˚F days a year by 2050.4 Overall precipitation patterns While we wait to tally the final costs of this year’s are likely to change as well, paradoxically including extreme weather, we’re left with a lingering question: is this year’s extreme weather merely an anomaly, or is it a “new normal” that is the result of climate change?

From crop losses for farmers to high prices at grocery stores for our families, flooded basements to dead, dried-up lawns, residents across Wisconsin were deeply impacted by 2012’s extreme weather.

It is a difficult, yet important question to answer. Luckily, we have a much clearer picture of our future climate in Wisconsin thanks to cutting-edge research from top climate scientists at the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI), a partnership between the Nelson Institute at University of Wisconsin Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.

This valuable research can help us predict, and thereby better prepare for, climate changes.

It is impossible to point to any one weather event and say it is the result of climate change; however, growing certainty and understanding in the field of climate science enable us to better predict weather patterns we can expect to see change. This report aims to use the best science available to connect some of the dots between what we’re experiencing today and what we will likely experience in the future.

Climate change promises to have a dramatic impact

www.cleanwisconsin.org

Climate change promises to have a dramatic impact on many facets of life in Wisconsin.

more droughts and flooding as dry conditions are broken up by more severe rain events.

However, predicting future weather patterns does little on its own. In recognition of this fact, this report explores ways that Wisconsin residents, businesses, and industries can limit the impacts of climate change. Each section of this report includes an example of an effort that will better prepare our state. For instance, stories like Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District’s stormwater upgrades demonstrate that preparing for an uncertain future can also make our communities better, more resilient places to live. With such major changes expected, it is important to take stock of what the future may hold and begin to prepare our farms, communities and residents for the “new normal.”

Introduction | page

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Table of Contents Introduction: The New Normal Agriculture: Our Most Iconic Industry

3 5

Health: Impacting Our Most Vulnerable Populations

9

In the News By the Numbers Building Resilience: Wisconsin’s New Phosphorus Rule In the News By the Numbers Building Resilience: Flood Management & Green Infrastructure in Milwaukee

Tourism: Predicting Climate Impacts

In the News By the Numbers Building Resilience: Trout Stream Restoration in the Driftless area

5 7 8

9 11 12

13

13 14 15

References 17

page 4

The New Normal

Agriculture

Our most iconic industry In the News

For good reason, Wisconsin is known as the Dairy State:

Both our identity and our economy are tied to the iconic agriculMaple Syrup harvest down in ture sector. For perspective, it’s worth noting that the dairy industry 2012 due to warm spring in Wisconsin is bigger than Florida’s citrus industry or Idaho’s poWisconsin Ag Connection, 6/19/2012 tato industry. But Wisconsin’s agricultural industry is much more There’s no sugar coating it: Wisconsin’s diverse. Wisconsin is a national leader in a number of crops, in2012 maple syrup season was not very good this year. State agriculture officials cluding vegetables like carrots, snap beans, ginseng and sweet corn, say 50,000 gallons of syrup was made grains like oats and corn, and commodities like maple syrup and this spring, down 68 percent from the 155,000 gallons harvested in 2011. Sug- cucumbers for pickles. ar content was also off, as it required 44 gallons of sap to make one gallon of syrup — up from 38 gallons last year...

The maple season began just over a week earlier than last year, but also ended sooner because of the warmer temperatures. This year’s season averaged 10 days, which is 18 days shorter than last year. 5

This diversity is due, in part, to our varied geography and geology, and in each region a different set of strategies and techniques is needed to be successful. This diversity, paired with the hard-working Midwestern spirit, will serve our farmers well as we start to experience changes to our climate. These changes have the potential to be both positive and negative and will vary for each farm and crop. Some of these changes, as identified in the 2011 WICCI reTart cherry crop in Midwest port, “Wisconsin’s Changing Climate,” are discussed here. destroyed by weather

Associated Press, Dinesh Ramde, 7/13/2012 SISTER BAY, Wis. (AP) — Walk into Cherry Republic’s store in the heart of the nation’s biggest tart cherry producing region, and you could end up with jam or salsa with fruit that had to be imported from Poland.

Cherry Republic can’t get enough tart cherries from its local orchards because 97 percent of Michigan’s crop was destroyed this year by a freak weather pattern. An unseasonably warm March that caused trees to bud was followed by an April freeze that killed the blossoms.

Dairy

Like other warm-blooded mammals, there is an ideal temperature range for dairy cows where no extra energy is needed for them to maintain their body temperature. For dairy cows, this range is between 32°F and 68°F,8 with any temperature above that potentially leading to heat stress. Heat stress can have significant impacts on farm economics, including food intake, milk production, and reproduction and death rates of the dairy cows.

In 2003, a study estimated that dairy cows were in heat stress 9% of the time in Wisconsin.8 For operations with few systems in place to provide

Trees in New York and Wisconsin, which have smaller but still significant tart cherry harvests, suffered the same weather damage...6

Crops, people wilt in intense heat across southern Wisconsin Isthmus, Nora G. Hertel, 6/28/2012

You don’t need the weatherman or thermometer to tell you, it is hot and dry in Madison. Since thaws in January, this year has proved unusually warm. Temperatures may reach 100°F Thursday...

Madison has not seen a June this dry since 1988, says Chris Kucharik, associate professor of agronomy and environmental studies at the UW-Madison.7

www.cleanwisconsin.org

Agriculture | page

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SHIFTING HARDINE temperature control, heat stress led to an annual estimated loss of $72 per cow and 403 pounds of milk per cow.8 As temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, this will lead to an increase in heat stress and reduced output for dairy cows.

PLANT HARDINESS ZONES

W m W C in le c th b o te u e p c z th o

Crops

Perhaps no other sector of the economy is more sensitive to climate than cropland. In 2012, record warm spring temperatures followed by a late spring frost decimated cherry crops, and severe drought conditions pushed much of Wisconsin’s corn crop past the point of return. Extreme weather, however, is merely one example of what our farmers may face due to climate change; changing conditions could bring new weeds and pests, and uncertain weather patterns may threaten the productivity of crops critical to Wisconsin’s economy.

The effect of a changing climate is evident in the USDA’s newest Plant Hardiness Zone Map (see page 6).

This map, which is based on the average annual lowest winter temperature over a 30-year period, helps growers determine what plants will thrive in their areas. Since 1950, Wisconsin’s growing season has been expanding, and climate models predict higher temperatures will lengthen our growing season even more. With higher temperatures shifting plant hardiness zones north, it is possible that Wisconsin could grow new fruit crops in the future.

Hardiness zones can tell us how growing patterns are changing, but to better understand how changes in our climate will impact agriculture, WICCI scientists took a more detailed look at Wisconsin’s top crops: corn and soybeans. Using crop yield information and climate data to predict future yields, they found a mix of possible outcomes. While higher temperatures could lower crop yields, increased precipitation may have the opposite effect on the state’s crops. The bottom line is that any warming during the core growing season may negatively impact crop yields.

1990 Modern

2050 High Emissions

2050 Low Emissions

2090 High Emissions

2090 Low Emissions

3b 4a 4b 5a 5b 6a 6b 7a

W h m ti p c a b c th in c p s m c m a

To the casual observer, it often seems that the only plants that thrive during drought are weeds; unfortu- Figure 2. Plant hardiness maps. nately, this is more than just anecdotal. Higher tem- Source: Michael Notaro, PlantDavid Hardiness Lorenz andMaps Daniel Vimont, Nelson Institute peratures and changes in precipitation could herald University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Based on high- and lownew diseases and pests that bring challenges to all our emissions scenarios4 crops. As weeds and pests become more vigorous, the Impacts and Vulerabilities use of herbicides and insecticides may increase,100 in turnAgriculture and the Soil Resource strengthening their resistance to these methods of control. Going forward, new strategies will likely be needed to protect crops from the threat of pests and weeds. page 6

The New Normal

More Research Needed

WICCI scientists note that more research is needed in the area of climate change impacts on agriculture, in part because it is clear that changes in climate have already occurred and are having an adverse impact on this important sector of our economy today.

However, there are a number of options already available to farmers that will help them adapt to climate changes, including altering planting dates and planting new crops. But more extreme climate change scenarios will require a more systemic approach that goes beyond the scope of a single farmer.9

While our agricultural systems can adapt to expected climate changes through 2050, “Beyond that time, modeling suggests that crop productivity in all regions could begin to be harmed by higher temperatures predicted … unless successful greenhouse gas mitigation measures are implemented soon.”

Monsanto scientist David Gustafson writes that while our agricultural systems can adapt to the types of changes expected through 2050, “Beyond that time, modeling suggests that crop productivity in all regions could begin to be harmed by higher temperatures predicted for that period … unless successful greenhouse gas mitigation measures are implemented soon.”10

—Monsanto scientist David Gustafson

By the numbers

One in every 10 Wisconsinites works in a job related to agriculture 11 Corn crop classified as “poor” or “very poor,” July 201212 Chippewa Valley apple crop loss, 201213

43% 50-60%

2012 maple harvest loss, from 201114

68%

Estimated cherry crop loss, 201215

94%

www.cleanwisconsin.org

Agriculture | page

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Water-quality sampling in a phosphorusplagued, algae-filled lake.

PHOTO: Chetek Lakes Protection Association

Building resilience

Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule

“

Wisconsin’s new Phosphorus Rule could prove to be a useful tool not only for cleaning our waters, but also for protecting the state’s valuable and productive farmlands. page 8

”

Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule includes an innovative new tool linking farmers with incentives to implement soil conservation practices; in addition, it has the added benefit of protecting against the growing threat of climate change. Designed to clean up dangerous and smelly algae blooms in our waters, provisions in this rule allow farmers to participate in efforts to improve their watersheds and protect their fields from costly soil erosion.

Soil erosion is a significant problem for farmers, as the top layer of soil is the most supportive of plant growth. Just a small number of precipitation events each year causes most of the soil erosion on cropland in Wisconsin and leads to runoff pollution in our waterways. Instead of being absorbed by crops, intense rains can send nutrients like phosphorus into our rivers and lakes, causing algae blooms. Without appropriate adaptation measures, WICCI scientists predict that climate change and other complicating factors could cause soil erosion to double by 2050 (from 1990 rates).

Enter the Phosphorus Rule. Unlike other pollutants regulated under the Clean Water Act, phosphorus pollution largely comes from nonpoint sources, like farm field runoff and urban lawns, which makes this a challenging problem. A provision in Wisconsin’s new phosphorus rule, called the Watershed Adaptive Managment Option, allows point sources like stormwater treatment facilities and factories to work with landowners and farmers to achieve significant pollution reduction at a much lower cost. Not only do point sources avoid expensive technologies that cost tens of millions of dollars, but landowners receive financial assistance to reduce soil erosion and runoff pollution.

Beyond preventing the loss of valuable nutrients, soil conservation practices like no-tillage farming can benefit farmers in other ways as well. No-tillage farming reduces labor, irrigation and fuel costs. Crop rotation keeps fields in constant production and can slow the spread of diseases and pests.

Intense rain events as well as periods of drought are projected to increase by mid-century; combined, these conditions would put more land at risk for erosion.

WICCI scientists recommend better implementation of existing soil conservation practices in order to help farmers prepare for these threats. In addition, soil conservation has enormous potential to sequester carbon and slow the rate of climate change. Wisconsin’s new Phosphorus Rule could prove to be a useful tool not only for cleaning our waters, but also for protecting the state’s valuable and productive farmlands.

The New Normal

Health

Impacting our most vulnerable populations In the News Wisconsin braces for heat wave, 20 counties under heat advisory WSAW CBS 7, Wausau, 6/27/2012

The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for 20 southern Wisconsin counties including; Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Sauk, Columbia, Dodge, Washington, Ozaukee, Iowa, Dane, Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha.16

Historic heat wave claims more victims State Journal,Gayle Worland and Nico Savidge, 7/7/2012

Blistering triple-digit temperatures that beat down on southern Wisconsin for the third day in a row Friday claimed the lives of two people in the La Crosse area and sent dozens to hospitals and clinics in the Madison area with heatrelated illnesses.17

State: Warm spring means more tick activity

With long stretches of days over 90 degrees, the weather of

summer 2012 makes it easy for Wisconsinites to imagine what our future might look like under climate change. But apart from being sticky and uncomfortable, higher temperatures are dangerous and pose a significant threat to Wisconsin resident. While the potential impacts are still being explored, we know that climate change is a significant public health problem that affects our vulnerable populations the most.

Heat waves

Contrary to our reputation as the “Frozen Tundra,” Wisconsin summers are quite hot and often include dangerous heat waves. In the United States, heat waves have been become longer, more prevalent and more intense over the last 40 years,20 and increasing temperatures will only make this worse. Scientists predict that Wisconsin could see more than twice as many 90-degree days a year by 2050.4 Heat waves are most dangerous for the elderly and younger populations, who are more susceptible to heat illnesses like heat stroke. In Wisconsin, there were 116 heat-related deaths from 1982-2008, with a large portion occurring in Milwaukee County.22 Cities are more vulnerable than rural areas to the “heat island effect,” where cities are hotter because impervious surfaces like buildings and pavement store and radiate heat.

Associated Press, 5/5/2010

The state Department of Health Services is warning Wisconsin about Lyme disease after a warm spring triggered more deer tick activity than usual.18

Ozone advisory for Milwaukee, Ozaukee counties Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 6/28/20102

The Department of Natural Resources issued an ozone advisory for Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine and six other counties until 1 a.m. Friday.

This is the second consecutive day that state officials have issued an air pollution notice for the Milwaukee area. The state Department of Health Services is warning Wisconsin about Lyme disease after a warm spring triggered more deer tick activity than usual.19

This image released on July 3, 2012, shows the average maximum temperature forecast from July 3-7. Black signifies a temperature of 90˚F, bright orange signifies 109˚F.21 www.cleanwisconsin.org

Health | page

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Air Pollution

Air pollution already poses a serious threat to public health. Prevalent air pollutants like smog and airborne allergens like pollen and ragweed are exacerbated by higher temperatures. With temperatures expected to increase 6˚F by mid-century,4 air pollution may potentially become an even bigger problem in the future.

Ozone, or smog, forms when pollution from vehicles, factories and coal plants react with sunlight and heat.

Higher temperatures not only speed up this process but result in more smog.

Air pollutants decrease lung function, trigger asthma attacks and send people to the hospital, posing

an additional threat to already vulnerable groups like the young, elderly and sick.

To warn the public of unhealthy air pollution levels, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources issues air advisories. Through October 31, 2012, Wisconsin had experienced 2.5 times as many bad air days as were issued in all of 2011.23 The high number of bad air days is likely caused in part by higher temperatures, more of which we can expect in the future.

Allergies are not often thought of as a health threat, but they can lead to asthma, result in lost work and school days, and significantly lower the quality of life for those that suffer from itchy eyes and sneezing and have difficulty breathing. Treating the symptoms caused by allergens like ragweed and pollen costs $21 billion annually in the United States.24 Climate change could make this worse, as rising carbon dioxide levels speed weed growth, and higher temperatures lengthen growing seasons, subsequently extending the allergy season.

People who are exposed to air pollution are even more sensitive to allergens, and those with asthma are especially at risk, as allergies can trigger asthma attacks.

Climate change threatens to complicate the situation, with a combined threat of increased smog pollution and more allergens in the air. page 10

Water Quality

Climate models predict that the number of heavy rain events and the intensity of each event in Wisconsin will increase over the next few decades. Heavy rains bring flooding, and while flooding itself can be dangerous, rising waters increase the likelihood of the spread of waterborne diseases. Bacteria and viruses can be spread when stormwater runs off contaminated lands, floods drinking wells or causes sewers to overflow into waterways.

Wisconsin is already familiar with the spread of bacteria and viruses through flooding. After the series of memorable large precipitation events in 2007-’08, E. coli bacteria was found to have contaminated drinking water in 30% of sources tested.25 Similarly, Milwaukee’s infamous Cryptosporidium outbreak of 1993 happened after heavy rains and record overflows into the Milwaukee River contaminated the public water supply, resulting in over $96 million26 in medical and lost productivity costs.

Total cost of illness during the 1993 cryptosporidiosis outbreak26 Illness severity Medical costs Lost productivity Total Mild Moderate Severe Total

$790,760 $2,710,800 $28,153,000 $31,655,000

$40,212,000 $18,176,000 $6,201,400 $64,589,000

$41,002,000 $20,887,000 $34,355,000 $96,244,000

Costs in 1993 U.S. dollars; may not add up due to rounding.

Vector-borne diseases

The spread of vector-borne diseases, like the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes and Lyme disease transmitted by ticks, are a focus of public health research on climate change as both are on the rise.

An insect’s geographical range and its rates of disease transmission are impacted by temperature and precipitation patterns. For example, a study of horses infected by the West Nile virus showed a temperature drop shortly after the outbreak ceased, suggesting a correlation between temperature and transmission.27 Wisconsin saw a 280% jump in Lyme disease cases between 1997 and 2007, with a total of 2,376 cases statewide in 2011.28 More extreme temperature swings may mean an increase in these kinds of dangerous infections and diseases.

The New Normal

Risk Reduction

According to Georges C. Benjamin, president of the American Public Health Association, “Climate change is one of the most serious public health threats facing our nation...”29 While the full implications of climate change on our health is unknown, the public health community is preparing for what is to come.

To reduce the risks of climate change on health, WICCI’s Human Health Working Group recommends a comprehensive approach that combines carbon pollution reductions and adaptation strategies.30 Using cleaner energy sources and designing cities that promote a less sedentary lifestyle will not only improve air quality and health but also slow climate change.

Climate change is one of the most serious public health threats facing our nation...

—Georges C. Benjamin, President, American Public Health Association

Incidence of Lyme Disease in Wisconsin Over Time31

By the numbers

116

Wisconsin Heat-Wave Deaths, 1982-’0822

2011

61

2012 (through 10/31/12)

Statewide Air Advisories23

www.cleanwisconsin.org

Twice as many 90-degree days by 20504

159

2x Health | page

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Milwaukee residents are familiar with flooded basements that come with heavy rains and sewers flooded with more water than storage and treatment plants can handle. To meet the demands of a growing population while preventing potentially dangerous sewer overflows, Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) is making necessary stormwater infrastructure upgrades and implementing green infrastructure and land conservation projects. Not only will these improvements better manage water during periods of intense rain to protect property and public health, but they also help prepare the region for a likely future with more extreme rain events.

To cope with intense rain events, MMSD constructed deep tunnels 300 feet underground to store up to 521 million gallons of water until the water reclamation facilities can process it. Other projects to prevent overflows include the repair of extensive sewer leaks and sources of inflow; treatment plant upgrades; and homeowner and business efforts like disconnecting downspouts and installing rain barrels, rain gardens, green roofs or porous pavement.

In partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, MMSD completed this 79.5-acre native prairie restoration as part of the Greenseams program in the Village of Germantown.

PHOTO: MMSD

Building resilience Flood Management and Green Infrastructure in Milwaukee

“

By preparing for the future, MMSD can build a more resilient stormwater system that protects the community’s precious water resources while minimizing dangerous sewer overflows that could negatively harm public health.

”

MMSD is also employing a unique strategy to ensure land in the watershed is able to do its job of managing stormwater. MMSD’s Greenseams program is designed to prevent future flooding by protecting critical lands with water-absorbing qualities, such as wetlands. With Greenseams, either a conservation easement is placed on a property or undeveloped property is sold voluntarily to MMSD. The land stays undeveloped and is sometimes planted with water-absorbing trees or converted from agricultural land to its natural state. Not only do wetlands and land with water-absorbing hydric soil filter water and keep stormwater out of waterways and reclamation facilities, keeping them intact prevents the need for detention ponds and channels while providing recreational opportunities for Milwaukee-area residents.

In order to better understand the impact of climate change on their systems, MMSD has asked for the UW Climate Center and others to downscale WICCI’s models and provide recommendations for how they can better prepare for new conditions. By preparing for the future, MMSD can build a more resilient stormwater system that protects the community’s precious water resources while minimizing dangerous sewer overflows that could negatively harm public health.

Tourism

Predicting climate impacts In the News Winter tourism off to a good start Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Rick Barrett, 12/30/2010

Blessed with early snow, resorts in northern Wisconsin and Michigan report the winter tourism season is off to successful start....

With a forecast that calls for rain and higher temperatures, winter tourism businesses are praying for more snow — and cold.32

Is snow too late for tourism in the state?

Fox 11, Green Bay, 3/4/2012

In Wisconsin, snow can mean many things for many different people.

It can be a nuisance, or a way to enjoy some of your favorite winter activities.

But for the state’s tourism industry, it generally means money during the winter months.

After a slow start to winter without any sort of substantial snowfall, Northeast Wisconsin finally has enough to strap on a pair of cross country skis.33

Emptied Wis. lake drains dollars USA Today, 6/26/2008

LAKE DELTON, Wis. — One car after another pulls into the parking lot at a small public beach on the edge of Lake Delton. Swimming, though, is not on the agenda for the families who clamber out. They’re here to gaze at an empty lake... The 267-acre lake drained June 9 after rain caused flooding that broke through its banks and into the Wisconsin River, creating a chasm that toppled homes and severed a road.34

From torrential rains causing Lake Delton to drain

to warm winter weather that threatens the Birkebeiner cross-country ski race in Wisconsin’s Northwoods, it is clear that Wisconsin tourism is dependent on our climate. The third-largest industry in Wisconsin, tourism spans nearly a dozen sectors, employs one in every 13 people and generated $16 billion in economic impact for the state in 2011.35 For winter recreation in particular, weather trumps all. Without cold temperatures and abundant snow, ski hills, snowmobile trails and ice fishing lakes stay empty and the communities and businesses that support these activities suffer. Looking at the key impacts of climate change on popular recreation activities, we get a better idea of what’s at stake.

Winter Sports

Scientists predict that Wisconsin will see the most warming in the winter, with a 5˚F- to 11˚F-degree increase expected by 2050.4 Wisconsin’s notoriously harsh winters will become milder; the season will become four weeks shorter and we will see up to three fewer weeks of sub-zero temperatures.38 This might be good news for some, but we will also have 14 fewer inches of snow a year.4 Snow on the ground often means a chance to enjoy the winter season, but the many Wisconsin residents who snowshoe, ski, or snowmobile will have fewer opportunities to enjoy their sports in coming years.

Ice cover on lakes has been declining over the last century,36 and predictions indicate that this will continue in the coming decades. In fact, some lakes in Southern Wisconsin may be ice-free all winter. This is particularly concerning to the thousands of Wisconsinites who enjoy ice-fishing. The tradition, which dates back to American Indians spearing fish in the winter for food, is now being threatened by climate change.

Days of Ice Cover on Dane County’s Lake Mendota, Over Time37

Fishing PHOTO: Lake Delton home, Michael Kienietz, DNR

Brook trout demonstrate the most dramatic impact of climate change on Wisconsin. Home to more than 10,000 miles of trout streams enjoyed by fly

fisherman from all over, these miles of streams are all at risk. If we continue at our current pace of polluting, Wisconsin would lose its entire brook trout habitat by 2050.4 Under the best case scenario, Wisconsin could still lose 44% of its brook trout habitat.4 The loss of this precious resource would also mean a loss of important tourism dollars; fishing has an annual economic impact of $2.75 billion, supports more than 30,000 jobs, and generates nearly $200 million in tax revenues.38 As for other popular game fish, there will be winners and losers with rising temperatures. Warm-water game fish like largemouth bass and northern pike will benefit from future changes, but not enough to make up for losses seen with their cold-water counterparts. Coldwater fish are expected to decline three times faster than warm-water fish will increase.4

Great Lakes State

Property owners, boaters and the tourism industry all have a clear stake in our lakes, but just as important is Wisconsin’s sense of place, which is wrapped up in our identity as a Great Lakes state. Dropping lake levels are a dramatic impact of climate change, and ports, harbors and properties along the lakes will all need to watch this trend. Scientific consensus is that Lake Michigan and Lake Superior will fall .8 feet to 1.4 feet by the end of the century.4 While climate change will very likely impact lake levels, the levels will vary widely from their averages over the decades. As such, WICCI scientists recommend that shoreland-zoning and construction follow high water levels to avoid risk.

By the numbers

0

brook trout habitat, 2050 with current carbon pollution trends4 page 14

Predicted distribution of brook trout in Wisconsin streams under current climate conditions and three climate-warming scenarios.39

As for inland lakes, the future is harder to predict with any certainty and will vary across the state. For inland lakes, one of the most significant impacts of climate change is the increase in water pollution from sediment and nutrients like phosphorus. Increases in the size and frequency of heavy rainfalls will send even more pollutants into our already choked lakes, so it will be even more important that we address water pollution issues in coming years.

$16 billion

Economic impact of tourism35

$2.75 million Economic impact of fishing37

The New Normal

Untouched by glaciers that would have turned its ridges and hills into gravel and rock, Southwestern Wisconsin’s Driftless area is home to world-class trout streams. The rolling terrain, marked with valleys and streams, provides excellent cold-water habitat for trout, and in their best state, these streams and rivers are enjoyed by anglers and canoeists, who in turn provide economic benefits to nearby communities. Through the centuries, however, erosion, land use patterns and flooding have put much of the Driftless area’s prized trout habitat in jeopardy.

Efforts to revitalize this area started in the 1930s and helped to slow erosion, but new threats like nutrient runoff and stormwater have hampered existing restoration efforts. In 2004, a new regional approach was created to expand the work already being conducted by the Department of Natural Resources and many county conservation field offices; TUDARE, or Trout Unlimited Driftless Area Restoration Effort, is accelerating the effort to ensure that these valuable cold-water streams are around for generations to come. By combining conservation in upland areas, habitat improvements along the streams, and partnerships between public and private entities, real progress is being made. More streams than ever are available to anglers and the area is seeing a revitalization of tourism that is bringing welcome income. For example, in 1999 the Kickapoo River Valley saw $3.25 million in economic activity from canoeists and anglers, an increase from the $500,000 in economic activity before the restoration of the river valley.

Angling alone contributes $1.1 billion annually to the economies of the Driftless area.

While the exact nature of how climate change will impact trout fisheries is still unclear, we know that access to cold-water streams is essential for survival. Stream restoration projects like streambank stabilization can help in many ways, such as preventing the build-up of dark particles in the water that absorb heat. Additionally, restoration projects can convert slow, shallow and wide streams into deep and narrow streams, which are more trout-friendly. According to project manager Jeff Hastings, “The restoration work will not only help preserve these world-class fisheries and protect Wisconsin’s strong fishing tradition for future generations, but offers the added benefit of helping insulate these amazing waters from the threats of climate change.”

www.cleanwisconsin.org

Before

After PHOTO: TUDARE

Building resilience Trout stream restoration in the Driftless Region

“

The restoration work will not only help preserve these world-class fisheries and protect Wisconsin’s strong fishing tradition for future generations, but offers the added benefit of helping insulate these amazing waters from the threats of climate change.

”

Tourism | page

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2.

Tebaldi, C., Adams-Smith, D. “The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends” Climate Central. June 2012.

3.

www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-record-temperatures-which-states-led-the-nation-14951

4.

Wisconsin’s Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, Wisconsin. 2011

5.

www.wisconsinagconnection.com/story-state.php?Id=727&yr=2012

6.

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/13/midwest-tart-cherry-crop_n_1670226.html

7.

www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=37111

8.

De Vries, A. “Economics of Heat Stress: Implications for Management”. Department of Animal Sciences, University of Florida. May 2012 Accessible at www.extension.org/pages/63287/economics-of-heat-stress:-implications-for-management

9.

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