Visionandprioritiesjun02

NASA’s Exploration Team: Vision and Priorities National Aeronautics and Space Administration June 12, 2002

“However our present interests may restrain us with our own limits, it is impossible not to look forward to distant times” -- Thomas Jefferson

The Corps of Discovery and America’s Future

“The object of your mission is to explore…”

From Thomas Jefferson’s ‘Letter of Instruction’ to the Corps of Discovery [June 20, 1803] Jefferson’s pillars for the country’s great enterprise of exploration: “Instruments for ascertaining, by celestial observations, the geography of the country…” => Scientific exploration, enabled by technology. “…[and to ascertain the suitability of the frontier] for the purposes of commerce.” => Economic opportunity, enabled by government investment.

“Your observations are to be taken with great pains and accuracy, to be entered distinctly and intelligibly for others as well as yourself….” => Public engagement, enabled by effective communication.

“You will therefore endeavor to make yourself acquainted, as far as diligent pursuit of your journey shall admit, of…the extent of…[life beyond the frontier].” => The adventure of new discoveries…the unanticipated.

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NEXT’s Grand Vision

Exploration of life in the Universe . . . enabled by technology first with robotic trailblazers, and eventually humans, going anywhere, anytime

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Exploration of Life in the Universe To discover scientific evidence and processes that reveal our place in the Universe, by exploring new places and phenomena, leading outward beyond the vicinity of the Earth, enhancing the quality of life and sharing the adventure of discovery with all humanity.

The imperative for space exploration can be articulated by three Grand Challenges:

How did we get here?

How did life arise on Earth?

How did intelligence evolve on Earth?

How did the Earth and Solar System form and evolve? . . .

Where are we going?

What is the fate of life on Earth?

What is the interaction between life and the Earth’s environment?

How do we optimize the role of humans in space? . . .

Are we alone?

Are there other abodes for life in the Solar System?

Are there other abodes for life in the Universe? . . .

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More on What the Vision is • Exploration of Life in the Universe • Changing the pace of discoveries and enabling new ones • Bringing new machines on site to facilitate faster and better science activities with higher and faster yields • Ultimately bringing humans on site to radically alter the pace of discoveries • All of this is catalyzed by cycles of innovation-driven investment 6

What is the NEXT Vision Difference?

Where Do We Want to Go Tomorrow?

Where Are We Today?

LEO

• • • • • •

Minimum Energy Transfers Launch cost indiscriminant of payload value Destination-Dependent (in series) Humans Only to LEO Low-Bandwidth Telecomm Infrequent Visits: Hostage to Time

L2

• • • • • •

Asteroids

Non-minimum Energy transfers Launch cost determined by payload value Destination-Open (in parallel) Humans to L2, Mars …. Wherever Video Bandwidth Telecomm Frequent visits: Sustained Operations

Investing in technology makes the difference:

Increase value/lb - while decreasing cost/lb

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Traceable Thought Process and Current Progress NASA-wide Vision

Exploration Vision Codes S, Y, U and HEDS science

Science Questions and Pursuits Activities (measurements, experiments, etc) to address questions

Destinations

Science and capabilities analysis Metrics defining human enabling functions

at which or from which questions are addressed

Human & Robotic Integration Architecture Concepts Technology Investment Portfolios

Exploration Capabilities Enabling classes of destinations Destination/Technology-Specific Architecture Analysis Technology Breakthroughs Roadmaps, Technology Assessments, Technology Investment Strategy 8

Example Science Traceability Vision How Did We Get Here?

Science Question s

Pursuits

Destinations

•Solar System evolution

• Planetary sample • History of analysis: absolute major Solar age determination System events “calibrating the clocks”

• Moon • Mars • Asteroids

• Humans adaptability to space

• Effects of deep space on cells

• Measurement of genomic responses to radiation

• Beyond Van-Allen belts

• Measurement of Earth’s vital signs “taking the pulse”

• Earth orbits • Libration points

• Detection of biomarkers and hospitable environments

• • • •

Where Are We •Earth’s Going?

• Impact of sustainability and human and habitability natural events upon Earth

Are We Alone?

Activities

• Life beyond the planet of origin

• Origin of life in the Solar System • Origin of life in the Universe

Mars Europa Titan Cometary nuclei • Libration points

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Discoveries

Why Use Humans?

To Accelerate Discovery & Innovation Apollo 17 Rover

Leadership: Emerged as Cold War victor Prosperity: Catalyst for “information age�

Motivation: Surge in education of scientists and engineers

Ranger

Surveyor

Apollo 12 @ Surveyor 3 site

Apollo 11

Lunar orbiter

Discovery: Origin of the Earth Moon system

Clementin e

Lunar Prospector

Time 10

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Why Use Humans?

Astronauts Enable Discoveries: HST 50 45

Infrared Observations Begin

The Birth of Stars

Vision restored to HST BEFORE AFTER

Science Value*

40 35 30 25 20 15

HST Post-Servicing

10 HST Pre-Servicing

5 0 1990

1991

1992

1993

Launch Spherical aberration *1990-1999 data - most important stories per year Source: Science News

1994

1995

Servicing Mission 1 •COSTAR • WFPC2

1996

1997

1998

Servicing Mission 2 • STIS • NICMOS

1999

Gyro failure

2000

Servicing Mission 3a

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The Places We Could Go Accessible Planetary Surfaces

The Earth’s Neighborhood

Earth and LEO

EarthMoon L1

The Moon

SunEarth L2

Mars

Asteroids or Other Targets...

Discover life in Europa’s oceans

Discover Solar System history Discover traces of life

L1

L2 Discover pale blue dots with gigantic telescopes

Outer Planet s

Discover valuable resources 12

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Stepping Stones Go anywhere, anytime Sustainable Planetary Presence Accessible Planetary Surface

Earth’s Neighborhood Earth and LEO • Space Station experience • Solar System learning • Technology advancements

• Traveling up to 1.5 million km • Enabling huge optical systems • Operating in deep space • Staying for 50100 d

• Traveling out to ~1.5 AU, and beyond • Enabling sustainable • Traveling out to scientific research 1.5 AU • Enabling tactical • Sustaining operations on investigations another planet • Visiting and • Staying for operating on indefinite periods another planet • Staying for 1-3 years 13

Overview

NEXT Approach New Concepts and Current Technologies

Revolutionary Concepts Using Breakthrough Technologies New Concepts

New Concepts Using New Technologies

Current Concepts and New Technologies

Current Concepts & Technologies New Technologies

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Earth’s Neighborhood

New Approach to Exploration Concepts • Initial approach had separate scenarios, each requiring support infrastructures

Solar L2 Gateway

Telescope Constructio n

Lunar L1 Gateway

Earth’s Neighborhood

Lunar Missions

High Earth Orbit Mars

• Discovered new approach for meeting trajectory requirements for vehicles in Earth’s Neighborhood with new benefits; – Low energy transfers between Lunar L1 and solar L2 – Created efficient Gateway Concept 15

Evaluating Technology Investments Example: Exploration in the Earth’s Neighborhood

Crew Transfer Vehicle

Normalized Mass

5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Gateway (Including Deployment) Crew Transfer Vehicle (First Flight)

Gateway Today ® Advanced Avionics (7%) ® Maintenance & Spares (18%) ® Advanced Materials (17%)

Today ® Advanced Avionics (7%) ® Maintenance & Spares (18%) ® Advanced Materials (17%) ® Aerobraking (42%)

® Closed Life Support (34%) ® Advanced Propulsion (EP) (45%)

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Example Architecture: Mars Mission (SEP Option)

Surface Habitat and exploration gear aerocaptures into Mars orbit Ascent/Descent Vehicle aerocaptures and remains in Mars orbit for the crew Habitat Lander and Ascent/Descent Vehicles delivered to Low Earth Orbit with “Shuttle Class” launcher. Solar Electric Propulsion stage spirals cargo to High Earth Orbit.

Chemical injection used at perigee. SEP spirals back to LEO for reuse.

Crew travels to Mars in “fast transit” 180-206 day transfer.

Aerobrakes into Mars orbit

Crew rendezvous with Descent/Ascent Vehicle in Mars Orbit then lands in vicinity of Habitat Lander

Surface Habitat lands and performs initial setup and checkout - Initial outpost established

30 days provided to satisfy “longstay” criteria.

Mars Surface

Habitat remains in Mars orbit

Crew ascends and rendezvous with waiting Transit Habitat

Transit Habitat vehicle delivered to LEO with “Shuttle Class” launcher. SEP spirals Transit Habitat to High Earth Orbit. Crew delivered to vehicle via crew taxi. SEP spirals back to LEO for reuse.

Earth

Crew returns to Earth on “fast transit” 180-206 day transfer.

Direct entry at Earth

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Evaluating Technology Investments Example: Mars Human Mission

8.0

Today

100%

7.0 80%

Maintenance & Spares (18%)

6.0 Advanced Materials (17%)

60%

5.0 4.0

Normalized Mass Launch Success

3.0 2.0

Closed life Support (34%)

40% Advanced Propulsion (EP or Nuclear) (45%) Aerobraking (42%)

20%

1.0 0.0

HW

Consumables

Cumulative Probability of Launch Success

Mass Savings Normalized to ISS Mass

Advanced Avionics (7%)

0% 18

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Evaluating Technology Investments Example: Nuclear Electric Propulsion

• Nuclear Electric Propulsion can provide both IMLEO and trip time benefits for piloted and robotic missions • Significant enhancements from advanced power and thruster technologies • Lack of sunlight prevents use of SEP or Solar Sails for orbit rendezvous missions significantly beyond Mars

Initial Mass in Low Earth Orbit, IMLEO (MT)

Piloted Mars

Neptune

2,000

Pluto Rendezvous

200

200

150

150

Crew 1,500

Chemical + Aerocapture 1,000

• Much harder than flyby due to need for slowing down

Chemical 100

100

Chemical Chemical + Aerocapture

NEP Advanced Near-Term

500

50

50 Cargo

NEP NEP

0

0

1 2 Flight Time (Years)

3

0

8

10 12 14 16 10 15 20 25 30 35 Flight Time (Years) Flight Time (Years)

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Evaluating Technology Investments

Example: Interplanetary Transportation Options HEO Departure to Mars

7*

4000

~ ~

All SEP

3 - Tether / Chemical 4 - HPEP / NEP 5 - VaSIMR 6 - SEP / Chemical 7 - All SEP * = One year total trip time

2000 3*

Opp-class Tether / Chem

1500

w/ Basestation 6*

IMLEO (mt) 1000

500

M2P2

3

Min Energy Tether / Chem w/ Basestation

4*

SEP/ Chem

ISS

6* 5*

Mass (~470 mt)

7 6

HPEP/NEP Typical pre-DPT reference mission duration

VaSIMR

4

Gas Core NT 0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Round Trip Mission Duration (years) Trip time is for the crew departing from HEO.

3.5

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In-Space Transportation Technologies

Now

10 Years

20 Years

Humans to LEO. Upper Stages for LEO-to-GEO and robotic missions

Human mission capability for nearEarth space. Robotic missions anywhere in the solar system

Safe, low-cost human and robotic exploration of the solar system

Safety & Reliability

~1/200 failure probability

100X safer

10,000X safer

Mass

Chemical state-of-the-art

3X - 5X reduction

10X reduction

$3000/kg LEO-to-GEO

$1000/kg - $300/kg

$300 - $100/kg

Application Missions

Cost

Leading Candidate Technologies:

High power electric propulsion (Isp: 3500 - 10,000 sec; power: 100 kW - 1 MW) Aeroassist and aerocapture (mid L/D aeroshells; ballutes) Plasma sails for efficient interplanetary transfer and inherent radiation protection Fission propulsion for reduced IMLEO and enhanced crew safety Momentum Transfer Tethers as a reusable in-space infrastructure for robotic and human exploration High energy density materials and advanced chemical fuels to increase Isp and reduce propulsion system mass

National Benefits: Lower cost and more reliable space transportation for commercial enterprises (e.g., communications, resource monitoring, tourism) and defense needs

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Evaluating Technology Investments Example: ETO Cargo Trade Space

Candidates Slingatron

Launch Frequency @ 400 mt/yr

800 Launches @1-25/day

Scale @ 8 km/s Shot

800 Launches @ 1 - 2/ day

Electromagnetic 800 Launches Coil Gun @ 1-3/day Rail Gun

ELVs Delta 7920

78 Launches

Pegasus

888 Launches

Strength/Weakness

Strength - High Frequency launch Weakness Recurring: $650 - Engineering $2,540/kg payload complexity Strength Non-recurring: $1+B - High energy density explosive Recurring: $1,238 Weakness $3,122/kg payload -Controlled detonation Strength Non-recurring: $2.7B - Higher technical maturity Recurring: $3,000Weakness $5000/kg - Massive electric energy storage

Gyration = 9 Hz Non-recurring: $2.2B D = 300 m

Blast Wave Accelerator

ROM Cost

Number of explosive rings = 2,800 L = 860 m L = Several hundred meters

Payload mass to LEO: 5000 kg

$9,700 - $11,100/kg payload Payload mass to $26,700 - $33,300/kg payload LEO: 450 kg 22 22

Power System Technologies

Now Application Missions Power level & Robustness

10 Years

20 Years

LEO/GEO satellites Earth & planetary science missions International Space Station Short duration/low power Mars surface PV

Mars long-stay robotic labs Libration point observatories Electric propulsion kW class Mars surface PV

100w class RTGs

10+kW surface nuclear

100+kW surface nuclear

10-100kW near-Earth PV

Higher efficiency/low mass PV for in-space

Robust, high power surface systems

Human missions far from Earth High power electric propulsion Multi-MW PV and nuclear dynamic systems for in-space

Leading Candidate Technologies:

Thin-film and high-efficiency photovoltaic cells to reduce the array area and stowed volume Advanced dynamic and static conversion to reduce both thermal input and radiator size High density energy storage to increase the duration of mobile systems High efficiency power management and distribution to reduce losses and save system mass

National Benefits: Increased reliability and reduced cost of NASA, military and commercial satellites and spacecraft.

More compact power systems for remote terrestrial applications, hybrid/electric vehicles and hand-held devices.

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Evaluating Technology Investments Example: Power Trade Space

Applications

Nuclear

LEO Fuel Depot

X

BNTR

X

NEP

X

Isotope

PV only PV/ RFC PV/ Batt FC/ RFC X

X

500 day Mars

X

10 hour rover

~3 MW 30-50kW 20-30kW/ 1-2MW

X

X X

Power Level

30-50kW/ 100kW-MMW X

30 day Mars

Beam

X

SEP/ Chem Ascent/ Descent/ Re

Batt.

X

X

X

X

3-5kW

X

10-20kW

X

60-100kW X

X

Multi-day rover

X

X

X

X

Mars mobile drill

X

X

X

X

14 day lunar

X

X

45 day Lunar

X

X

Lunar S. pole

X

X

L2

X

crewed, 1-3 kW

X

crewed, 5-10 kW X

2-100kW

X X X

1-5 kW

X X

X

X

10-100kW

X

2-100kW

X

2-10kW

= Preferred concept

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Crew Health & Safety: Radiation Protection October 1989 SPE EVA Dose, Sv

0.1

Flight rules

Magnetic Disturbance Index, Kρ Kρ=7 Kρ=5

0.01

Kρ=1

>

0.001

0

4

8

EVA Safe Window <

12

16

20

24

Daytime, hr

Now Application Missions Uncertainty in cancer risk Radiobiological database Solar flare strategies

Optimal shielding materials 10 years

Biomolecular Intervention 20 years

Short duration missions in low Earth orbit 600%

Extended missions in Earth’s Neighborhood 120%

Long-duration missions to more distant destinations 50%

10% complete

50% complete

100% complete

40% complete

75% complete

100% complete

Ground facilities

ISS; free flyers; balloons

Beyond Van Allen Belts

Model Validation

Leading Candidates Technologies:

Biomolecular risk prediction; molecular surveillance; genetic screening

New structural materials with optimal shielding properties with significant improvement over aluminum

Electromagnetic shields, including electrostatic, magnetic, and plasma shields from innovative propulsive techniques

Pharmacology: antioxidants, antisense drug discovery, ribozymes; cell cycle modifiers

Biomolecular intervention, such as stem cell replacement and gene therapy 25

Attacking the Radiation Challenge * NEXT funded Activities

Exploration Location/ Duration

LEO+ 500-1000 Days

LEO 180 Days

ADVANCED APPROACHES

Fast Transit Personnel Screening Active Shielding* Pharmaceuticals Integ. Design of Passive Shields* Materials* Tissue Testing/Modeling

3% lifetime limit

As Low As Reasonably Achievable

CURRENT MITIGATION

Safe Havens Career/Mission Time Constraints Dosimetry Historical Data/Modeling Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Magnetic Field

Risk/Uncertainty 26

Evaluating Technology Investments Example: Shielding Effects on Radiation

Lens Dose Equivalent from GCR at Solar Minimum behind Candidate Shielding Materials 120

100 Al2219 Polyetherimide

80

Polysulfone H-adsorbed SWNT CNT/Polymer Composite

60

Polyethylene LiH Liquid CH4

40

H-adsorbed GNF Liquid H2

20

0 0

5

10

Proposed ISS sleeping quarters shield for 35% reduction

15

20

25

30

x, g/cm 2

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Materials Technologies

Aluminum

Now

Small robotic missions

Application Missions International Space Station Strength-to-Mass Ratio Deployment.

Embedded Elements

Thin-film radar antenna10 years Large-aperture robotic missions Light-weight launch vehicles

Nanotube Space Elevator20 years Low-mass, smart structures for human & robotic exploration

Aluminum - 1x

10x

1000x

Very low precision

Low precision

High precision structures

Antennas, some sensors

Add: Receivers, transmitters, interconnects

Add: Propulsion, processors, actuators, etc.

Leading Candidate Technologies:

Carbon Nanotubes with up to 1000 times greater strength/mass Carbon nanotube microfibers with 40x stiffness/mass Thin-film materials with 1% nanotube whisker reinforced polymers results in dramatic improvement in thin film properties Wide bandgap semiconductors for high temperature environments, high-power circuitry, and high-strength MEMS devices Silicon carbide & elastomeric foams for self deploying & complex space structures Zeolites, carbon molecular sieves, etc. for in situ propellant production and air/water revitalization

National Benefits: Benefits all facets of standard of living and national defense, such as medical, all forms of transportation, computing, energygenration and distribution, military vehicles, etc.

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NEXT / THREADS R&T Approach:

Progressive Exploration Capabilities Earth’s Neighborhood Capability

Accessible Planetary Surface Capability

• In-space propulsion, Isp>1000 sec • Power systems, >200 w/kg • Integrated Human/ robotic capabilities • Crew countermeasures for 100 days • Closed water/air systems • Materials, factor of 9 • IVHM - Integrated vehicle health monitoring • Current launch systems

Now

2010+

Sustainable Planetary Surface Capability

• In-space propulsion, Isp>3000 sec • Power systems, >500 w/kg • Robotic aggregation/assembly • Crew countermeasures for 1-3 years • Closed life support • Materials, factor of 20 • Micro-/Nano- avionics • ETO @ ~$2000/kg

2020+

Downselect points for multiple technology development

• In-space propulsion, Isp>3000 sec • Sustainable power systems • Intelligent systems, orbital and planetary • Crew countermeasures for indefinite duration • ISRU for consumables & spares • Materials, factor of 40 • Automated reasoning and smart sensing • ETO @ <$2000/kg

2030+

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.â&#x20AC;?

A. de Saint-Exupery

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