postpandemichousing
NEW PERSPECTIVES AND PRIORITIES Call for partnerships to get the economy back on track and build more housing BY HESAM DEIHIMI
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or most of us, preoccupation with the human tragedy and social upheaval brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has left little time to look beyond the daily health briefings and concern for the welfare of our families and friends. But as we start to slowly emerge from this crisis in the months ahead, we will need to examine the challenges – and opportunities – of a “new normal.” We should expect significant changes in both our macro and micro economies. Migration, nationally and internationally, is likely to change as people who are able to choose where to live move to countries and regions that are politically stable and perceived to have managed the COVID-19 crisis well on both health and social levels. With its world-class health-care system and robust social security net, Canada – and especially British Columbia – stands out. On the micro level, we can expect far more people to work from home, shop online, have groceries and other purchases delivered to their door and – at least at first – look for entertainment that doesn’t involve large crowds.
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What does that mean for Canada and B.C.? The Canadians Abroad project of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada estimates that there are as many as 2.8 million Canadians living abroad, but many are now coming home. Having lived in an immigrant community for the past 24 years, I have witnessed an inflow of Canadians over the past few months. Most, if not all, are planning to stay here permanently. The pandemic has given people a new perspective on their lives and reoriented their priorities. They want to live in a country that looks after its people, has a stable political system and provides a social safety net for its citizens. Many returnees include people in their 20s and 30s who may have been living with their parents but who will now require their own accommodation. And with the prospect of B.C.’s economy resuming its robust growth based on a global resumption in demand for natural resources and the continued expansion of the tech sector, it’s not hard to imagine a substantial net increase in interprovincial migration as Canadians from elsewhere seek job opportunities in the province.
We have all seen firsthand how the Apples, Amazons and Microsofts of the world have been establishing footholds in our region. Enrico Moretti writes in his book, The New Geography of Jobs, that for each new high-tech job in a city, five additional jobs are ultimately created outside of that sector – lawyers, teachers, nurses, servers, hairdressers, carpenters … the list goes on. While this would appear to be good news for B.C.’s economy, any growth in the provincial population will undoubtedly place even more pressure on our region’s rental housing market, which is already grappling with a 1.1 per cent vacancy rate (according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2020 Rental Market report), and it’s almost impossible to predict how that will be resolved in the short-term. According to 2019 British Columbia Financial and Economic Review (79th Edition), construction, real estate, rental and leasing comprise 27 per cent of B.C.’s gross domestic product. The post-pandemic economic downturn combined with significant delays and uncertainty in the permitting phase of any development project could
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