SECTOR RISK • 4th quarter 2015 The temperature of 14 sectors in 3 of the world’s major regions EMERGING ASIA
WESTERN EUROPE** metals
metals chemicals construction
downgraded
energy metals
automotive construction
energy textileclothing
NORTH AMERICA
energy
engineering
paper-wood pharmaceuticals
downgraded
paper-wood
retail
downgraded
engineering
paper-wood
agrofood automotive
agrofood construction
pharmaceuticals services
agrofood chemicals
ICT*
ICT*
retail
transportation
engineering services
retail
textileclothing
ICT*
pharmaceuticals
transportation
services
automotive chemicals
textileclothing
transportation
TEXTILE-CLOTHING “HIGH” RISK
METALS “VERY HIGH” RISK
RETAILS “MEDIUM” RISK
• slowdown in the pace of sales in apparel • decline of cost competitiveness in China (which accounts for 70% of the regional GDP) • tensions in cotton inventories, the raw material for apparele
• hard time for the sector, despite signs of recovery in construction and the dynamism of automobile sales that buttress the demand for metals • steel production is declining in favour of low-cost imports from Asia • during the first seven months of 2015, Europe imported from China twice as much as in 2013
• slowdown in retail sales in the US and especially in Canada • Canada : - dependency of the economy on oil and household debt - consumption slowed down to 1.7% year-on-year at the end of the Q3 - withdrawal of the distributor Target from the Canadian market
* ICT, Information and Communication Technologies ** WE of 15
Low risk
Medium risk
High risk
Very high risk
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