SECTOR RISK • 4th quarter 2015

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SECTOR RISK • 4th quarter 2015 The temperature of 14 sectors in 3 of the world’s major regions EMERGING ASIA

WESTERN EUROPE** metals

metals chemicals construction

downgraded

energy metals

automotive construction

energy textileclothing

NORTH AMERICA

energy

engineering

paper-wood pharmaceuticals

downgraded

paper-wood

retail

downgraded

engineering

paper-wood

agrofood automotive

agrofood construction

pharmaceuticals services

agrofood chemicals

ICT*

ICT*

retail

transportation

engineering services

retail

textileclothing

ICT*

pharmaceuticals

transportation

services

automotive chemicals

textileclothing

transportation

TEXTILE-CLOTHING “HIGH” RISK

METALS “VERY HIGH” RISK

RETAILS “MEDIUM” RISK

• slowdown in the pace of sales in apparel • decline of cost competitiveness in China (which accounts for 70% of the regional GDP) • tensions in cotton inventories, the raw material for apparele

• hard time for the sector, despite signs of recovery in construction and the dynamism of automobile sales that buttress the demand for metals • steel production is declining in favour of low-cost imports from Asia • during the first seven months of 2015, Europe imported from China twice as much as in 2013

• slowdown in retail sales in the US and especially in Canada • Canada : - dependency of the economy on oil and household debt - consumption slowed down to 1.7% year-on-year at the end of the Q3 - withdrawal of the distributor Target from the Canadian market

* ICT, Information and Communication Technologies ** WE of 15

Low risk

Medium risk

High risk

Very high risk

:

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