COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 1st QUARTER 2016 A1
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
A2
VERY LOW
A3
LOW
A4
QUITE ACCEPTABLE
ACCEPTABLE
FINLAND SWEDEN
LATVIA LITHUANIA
BELARUS BELGIUM
FRANCE
POLAND
GERMANY
CZECH REPUBLIC AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND
UKRAINE
ITALY
UNITED STATES
PORTUGAL
D
BULGARIA
SPAIN GRÈCE
GEORGIA
KYRGYZSTAN
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
TURKMENISTAN
LEBANON
ISRAEL
IRAN
A2
IRAK
PALESTINE
JORDAN
EGYPT
FINLAND
A4
CUBA
MEXICO
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
SWEDEN RUSSIA
LATVIA DENMARK
LITHUANIA
HAITI
HONDURAS
GUATEMALA
MALI FRENCH ANTILLES
EL SALVADOR COSTA RICA
BELARUS
VENEZUELA
FRANCE
SURINAM FRENCH GUIANA
COLOMBIA
AUSTRIA
SWITZERLAND
GUIANA
PANAMA
POLAND
BELGIUM
SLOVENIA
SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA
UKRAINE
BURKINA FASO
ROMANIA
BOSNIA
A4
MYNMAR
HONG KONG
LAOS BANGLADESH THAILAND
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
PHILIPPINES
CAMBODIA
GHANA TOGO
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
ETHIOPIA
VIETNAM
SRI LAKA MALAYSIA
CAMEROON
A3
MALDIVES
SINGAPORE UGANDA GABON
PERU
YEMEN
INDIA
DJIBOUTI
NIGERIA
KENYA
CONGO
INDONESIA
RWANDA
ZAIRE (DRC)
HUNGARY
CROATIA
OMAN
BENIN IVORY COAST
ECUADOR
MOLDOVA
TAIWAN
SAUDI ARABIA
SUDAN
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
SLOVAKIA
ERITREA
CHAD
GUINEA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
NETHERLANDS
BAHRAIN QATAR
NIGER
SENEGAL
CAP VERT
NICARAGUA
BURUNDI
BRAZIL
TANZANIA
SERBIA
ITALY
TIMOR-LESTE
BULGARIA
MONTENEGRO
A2
CHINA
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
MAURITANIA
JAMAICA ESTONIA
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
AFGHANISTAN
KUWAIT LIBYA
NORWAY
TAJIKISTAN
SYRIA
CYPRUS
TUNISIA
ICELAND
MONGOLIA
UZBEKISTAN
TURKEY
ALGERIA
MOROCCO
C
ROMANIA BOSNIE
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
KAZAKHSTAN
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CZECH REPUBLIC
POSITIVE WATCH NEGATIVE WATCH
VERY HIGH
ESTONIA
UNITED KINGDOM
IRELAND
• Comprehension of the business environment
LUXEMBOURG
HIGH
RUSSIA
NORWAY
CANADA CANADA
GERMANY
SIGNIFICANT
ICELAND
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
UNITED KINGDOM
D
C
GROENLAND (DENMARK)
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
IRELAND
B
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
ANGOLA
MACEDONIA ALBANIA
PORTUGAL
GREECE
SPAIN
ZAMBIA TURKEY
BOLIVIA
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA PARAGUAY
MALTA
CYPRUS
MADAGASCAR MAURITIUS
BOTSWANA
MOZAMBIQUE
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
AUSTRALIA
CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
ARGENTINA
LESOTHO FRENCH POYNESIA
URUGUAY
downgradeS
ARMENIA
NEW ZEALAND
D
The economy is suffering from the effects of Russia’s recession. Social tensions are on the rise, as the opulation grows increasingly frustrated with corruption, the country’s poor economic performance and crackdowns on protesters.
JAPAN
A2
Economic policies have, so far, been ineffective. Abenomics have failed to boost GDP growth and the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary easing (the key interest rate is now negative) is unlikely to have a significant impact on the real economy.
KAZAKHSTAN
C
Growth is being hampered by the slump in oil prices and delays at the Kashagan offshore oilfield. In August 2015, the Central Bank announced the free floating of the tenge. This has weighed on companies and banks that are highly indebted in foreign currency.
KUWAIT
A2
Even though the oil market downturn has had a lesser impact on Kuwait’s economy than in other GCC countries (due to its lower break-even price), an increase in short term risks is anticipated. Public finances could well be eroded by the continuation of low oil prices.
MALAYSIA
A3
The Malaysian economy, which relies on external demand, is being affected by the economic slowdowns observed in China and the US. Public debt is still high and political risks are increasing.
OMAN
A4
Oman is likely to record a sizeable fiscal deficit (of around 20 %) in 2016. The state’s current account is also under pressure from the contraction in oil exports and is expected to record a deficit of around 17% of PIB.
SAUDI ARABIA
A4
In 2016, Saudi Arabia’s economy began to feel the negative effects of the decline in oil prices. Non-oil related activities are slowing and fiscal deficit is increasing. Bank deposits are falling – especially state ones – leading to pressure on both the banking system and economic activity.