Country risk assessment map - 2nd quarter 2016

Page 1

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2016 A1

RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A2

VERY LOW

A3

LOW

QUITE ACCEPTABLE

FINLAND

A3

A3

SWEDEN UNITED KINGDOM

A4

ESTONIA LATVIA

FRANCE

POLAND

A3

GERMANY

CZECH REPUBLIC AUSTRIA

SWITZERLAND

UKRAINE

ITALY

UNITED STATES

BULGARIA

A3

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

A4

UZBEKISTAN GEORGIA

TURKMENISTAN

TURKEY

TUNISIA

LEBANON

ISRAEL

A3

LIBYA

FINLAND

NORWAY

B

CUBA

MEXICO

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ESTONIA

LATVIA DENMARK

GUATEMALA

MALI

HAITI

FRENCH ANTILLES

VENEZUELA

SURINAM FRENCH GUIANA

PANAMA COLOMBIA

BELGIUM

SLOVENIA

SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA

UKRAINE SLOVAKIA

ROMANIA

BOSNIA

B

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

GREECE

PHILIPPINES

VIETNAM

A4

SRI LAKA MALAYSIA MALDIVES

SINGAPORE

BRAZIL

KENYA

CONGO

INDONESIA

A3

RWANDA

ZAIRE (DRC)

D

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

D

TIMOR-LESTE

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

ANGOLA

MACEDONIA

SPAIN

A3

THAILAND

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ETHIOPIA

UGANDA

SAO TOME & PRINCIPE

ALBANIA

PORTUGAL

YEMEN

CAMEROON

GHANA TOGO

BULGARIA

MONTENEGRO

HONG KONG

LAOS

CAMBODIA

NIGERIA

GABON

PERU

MYNMAR

BENIN IVORY COAST

SERBIA

ITALY

INDIA

DJIBOUTI

HUNGARY

CROATIA

OMAN

SUDAN

ECUADOR

MOLDOVA

A4

SAUDI ARABIA

ERITREA

CHAD

GUIANA

A3 TAIWAN

NIGER

BURKINA FASO

GUINEA

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

POLAND

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

SENEGAL

NICARAGUA

COSTA RICA

BELARUS

AUSTRIA

CAP VERT

EL SALVADOR

LITHUANIA

NETHERLANDS

BELIZE HONDURAS

RUSSIA

A3

MAURITANIA

JAMAICA

SWEDEN

KUWAIT

A3 CHINA

NEPAL

BAHRAIN QATAR

EGYPT

JAPAN

SOUTH KOREA

B

AFGHANISTAN

IRAN

IRAK

PALESTINE

C

TAJIKISTAN

SYRIA

JORDAN

ICELAND

KYRGYZSTAN

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

GRÈCE

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

MONGOLIA

ROMANIA BOSNIE

A2

KAZAKHSTAN

SLOVAKIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA

CYPRUS

SWITZERLAND

EXTREME

BELARUS BELGIUM

A2

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

FRANCE

VERY HIGH

LITHUANIA

IRELAND

CZECH REPUBLIC

HIGH

RUSSIA

NORWAY

CANADA

GERMANY

SIGNIFICANT

E

A3

• Comprehension of the business environment

LUXEMBOURG

ACCEPTABLE

D

C

ICELAND

• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

UNITED KINGDOM

B

GROENLAND (DENMARK)

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY

IRELAND

A4

ZAMBIA BOLIVIA

TURKEY

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

MADAGASCAR

NAMIBIA PARAGUAY

A4

MALTA

CYPRUS

CHILE

MAURITIUS

BOTSWANA

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

AUSTRALIA

D SOUTH AFRICA

ARGENTINA

MOZAMBIQUE

LESOTHO FRENCH POYNESIA

URUGUAY

UPGRADES

FRANCE

DOWNGRADES

A2

• Decrease in business insolvencies: -3.2% expected in 2016 • Higher corporate margins in 2016, supported by the growth in activity and government business support initiatives (CICE) • First quarter showed the highest level of non-financial private investment since 2012

ITALY

A3

• Activity is expected to strengthen in 2016 and 2017, mainly driven by private consumption • Investments are expected to strengthen • Insolvencies since 2015

decreasing

ALGERIA

NEW ZEALAND

C

• High dependence on the oil and gas sector • Growth is expected to slow in 2016, due to fiscal consolidation • FDI inflows remain weak, at 1% of GDP

CHINA

B

• The effectiveness of stimulus measures is being hindered by overcapacity and excessive corporate indebtedness • South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan A3 and Malaysia A4 have been hit by a shock wave. Exports, tourism and investments have been particularly affected

MOZAMBIQUE

D

SAUDI ARABIA

B

• High probability of default on sovereign debt

• Negative effects decline in oil prices

• Investors lack confidence in the solidity of the government and its ability to manage its debt issues

• Fiscal deficit is increasing. Public deposits have slackened, weakening the banking system

• The IMF and World Bank have temporarily suspended financial aid, due to an undisclosed debt of USD 1.4bn

of

the

UNITED STATES

A2

• The post-crisis turning point has been reached, resulting in a rise in business insolvencies for the first time since 2010 • Business eroding

profitability

• Investment is slowing

is


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.