COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • A2
A1
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING
VERY LOW
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
FINLAND SWEDEN
A2
CANADA CANADA
VERY HIGH
POSITIVE WATCH NEGATIVE WATCH
RUSSIA
LATVIA
BELARUS
FRANCE
UNITED STATES
POLAND
GERMANY
CZECH REPUBLIC AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY BOSNIE
ITALY
PORTUGAL
UZBEKISTAN
BULGARIA
GEORGIA
SPAIN
KYRGYZSTAN
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
GRÈCE
TURKMENISTAN
TURKEY
TUNISIA
LEBANON
ISRAEL
ALGERIA
TAJIKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
IRAK
PALESTINE
CHINA
JORDAN
B
MEXICO
UNDER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE WATCH
SAUDI ARABIA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MALI
HAITI
HONDURAS
FRENCH ANTILLES
CAP VERT
VENEZUELA
GUIANA SURINAM FRENCH GUIANA
PANAMA
• Ivory Coast
COLOMBIA
SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA
THAILAND
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
PHILIPPINES
DJIBOUTI
CAMBODIA
NIGERIA
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
ETHIOPIA
GHANA TOGO
VIETNAM
SRI LANKA MALAYSIA
CAMEROON
MALDIVES
SINGAPORE UGANDA
KENYA
CONGO
INDONESIA
RWANDA
ZAIRE (DRC)
C
C
YEMEN
BENIN IVORY COAST
GABON
BRAZIL
ERITREA
BURKINA FASO
ECUADOR
PERU
HONG KONG
LAOS
SUDAN
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
• Latvia
MYNMAR BANGLADESH
CHAD
GUINEA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
COSTA RICA
TAIWAN
INDIA
NIGER
SENEGAL
NICARAGUA
EL SALVADOR
• Italy
OMAN
MAURITANIA
JAMAICA
GUATEMALA
B
BAHRAIN QATAR
EGYPT
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
KUWAIT
LIBYA
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
SYRIA
CYPRUS
MOROCCO
MONGOLIA
ROMANIA
SLOVENIA
CUBA
• Zambia
HIGH
LITHUANIA
IRELAND
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
• Japan
SIGNIFICANT
D
ESTONIA
UNITED KINGDOM
A4
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Taiwan
ACCEPTABLE
NORWAY
• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Hong Kong
QUITE ACCEPTABLE
C
B
ICELAND
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY
• Namibia
LOW
A4
GROENLAND (DENMARK)
BELGIUM
• Finland
A3
2016
JANUARY
BURUNDI
TANZANIA
C
TIMOR-LESTE
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
ANGOLA ZAMBIA BOLIVIA
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
MADAGASCAR
NAMIBIA
• Kazakhstan
PARAGUAY
MAURITIUS
BOTSWANA
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
MOZAMBIQUE
AUSTRALIA
CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
ARGENTINA
D LESOTHO FRENCH POYNESIA
B
URUGUAY
NEW ZEALAND
DOWNGRADES
UPGRADE
HUNGARY
A4
•S olid growth (+3% in 2015 and +2.4% in 2016) •D iversified exports
CANADA
A2
•O il price drop hampers Canada’s growth • Risk of a housing bubble • Economic recovery will largely depend on the US growth
SOUTH AFRICA B
ALGERIA
•A griculture production suffering from severe drought • High unemployment and inflation weigh on household demand • Political situation remains fragile • Instability of the exchange rate
•E conomy is heavily reliant on oil and gas sector • Large public deficit
B
BAHRAIN
B
•P rivate sector activity will suffer from further decline in consumer and business confidence • Political uncertainties • High and rising public debt
BRAZIL
C
• I nvestment, consumption and industrial activity are still declining • Impact of the current political crisis may delay the budget adjustment process
GABON
C
• I nvestment slowed by fiscal adjustment linked to oil dependency • Social and political situation might become more strained in the lead-up to the next legislative and presidential elections in 2016
TANZANIA
C
•T he shilling against the US dollar may continue in 2016 • Difficult political environment: elections on the Zanzibar island have been cancelled due to fraud allegations
MADAGASCAR
D
•G rowth limited by political uncertainties • Low level of nickel and cobalt prices, the leading sources of export earnings for the country, will limit exports