Research & Forecast Report Accelerating success.
THE INTRODUCTION OF BUILD TO RENT IN AUSTRALIA November 2019
Accelerating success.
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RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
By John Nicolopoulos Manager | Research John.Nicolopoulos@colliers.com Representing the largest percentage of global workforce by approximately 2025, Millennials are set to drive demand of BTR development
An independent BTR policy and taxation framework is needed to enhance opportunities for delivery of supply
Opportunities exist outside CBDs where land is more affordable and rental demand is strong
In the United Kingdom, the Build to Rent sector has grown strongly since its inception in the early 2010s, and as of March 2019, there were approximately 32,000 completed units/homes, a further 36,000 under construction and 74,000 in planning (British Property Federation). Despite this success, BTR initially encountered numerous challenges, many of which derived from local authorities who struggled to differentiate the model from Build to Sell and affordable housing. The result was the inability to create viable BTR developments. Changes from government and authorities in relation to planning framework and policy (lowering tax rates on BTR investments) has since improved sentiment and feasibility. In recent times, the model has attracted high levels of institutional investors looking to capitalise on a deficit of higher quality rental supply and to lock in stable returns. Whilst the sector continues to expand across the UK, the momentum of BTR in London has been driven by the rising cost of home ownership, employment and lifestyle opportunities.
What is Build to Rent? Build to Rent (BTR) refers to an alternative development model where a developer builds and holds the stock specifically for long term income-generating assets, opposed to the traditional Build to Sell (BTS) model. BTR is an established asset class in both the UK and USA, and as the ‘Australian Dream’ of home ownership has become progressively difficult, the model is beginning to garner interest throughout Australia. BTR is complex and there are a number of variables that will impact the implementation of the model in Australia. Despite the challenges ahead, opportunities do exist.
BTR has proven to be a Global Success With the inevitable introduction of this new asset class into Australia, it is important we gain insights and learnings from the success of other international markets, especially the US and UK given the structural and market similarity to Australia. In the United States, where the size of the Build to Rent (known as multi-family housing) market has been growing significantly since the 1980s, over 14.5 million residences have been created. Currently, the sector represents the second largest asset class in the nation with the output of multifamily housing hovering around 300,000 units yearly. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, the asset class also contributes US$3.4 Trillion to the economy annually, supporting approximately 17.5 million jobs. The strength of BTR within the US can be associated with the maturity of the market and levels of offshore capital being poured into the asset class (accounts for approximately 25 per cent of institutional property investment – second to office). A simpler planning framework, rezoning of regeneration areas and increased demand for city living have also contributed to the success. In the US, 36 per cent of households are inhabited by renters (over 43,000,000). If we look at the age distribution of these renters, 50 per cent are aged under 30, just over double the next highest age bracket of 31-44 years old (NMHC). This demonstrates the appetite for rental accommodation from Millennials and Gen Z.
3
RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
GST credits, impacting the overall feasibility of the project.
Challenges to overcome in Australia There are a number of challenges that are impacting the implementation of BTR in Australia. Of these, the most prominent amongst industry stakeholders are explained below:
•
Mindset •
There is a strong culture and belief in Australia that home ownership correlates to one’s level of success. The ‘Australian Dream’ of home ownership has become increasingly difficult as property values have increased at rapid rates. The perception of renting being a short-term stepping stone to home ownership still needs to be shifted. The reality is that renting is now a secure and convenient lifestyle decision for an increasing share of Australians.
Feasibility •
Land in desirable locations across Australian cities, especially Sydney and Melbourne, is both difficult to find and extremely expensive. Locations close to the CBD, transport, universities, hospitals etc all come with a premium price tag and are usually also sought after by other asset classes.
Taxes and Charges •
All Australian states and territories levy an annual Land Tax, each with varying thresholds and progressive rates. Regardless of the use of the dwelling, the application of the tax remains the same as it purely reflects the value of the land. However, there are exemptions where land tax will not apply. In NSW for example, the land tax threshold is $692,000, meaning that anything below this amount does not incur land tax. Because of such exemptions, a site or project in single ownership (BTR) will be burdened by heavier taxes compared to a site divided amongst a number of owners because apportioned land value on individual units will unlikely cross the threshold or will be benefitted by a lower tax rate.
•
Under existing legislation, BTR developments are at a disadvantage compared to BTS or commercial developments when it comes to the application of Goods & Services Tax (GST). With BTS developments, GST credits can be claimed back on costs associated with acquisition and construction provided the property is sold new (within five years). A BTR development is currently classified as a residential development. Because the assets will not be sold and instead be held long-term, the developer will be unable to claim any
Australian Population Growth
Demand and Supply dynamics driving the need for housing options Australia’s population is expanding at the fastest pace in the developed world as skilled migrants flock to our growing economy in search of employment opportunities, education and a better quality of life. In 2018, Australia’s population grew by approximately 405,000 people, 248,400 of which came from net overseas migration (NOM); a 2.8 per cent increase from 2017 (ABS). According to the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects 2018, the three fastest growing cities post 2025 will all be located in Australia; Melbourne (1.24 per cent), Brisbane (1.18 per cent) and Sydney (1.17 per cent). As our population continues to swell, the need to provide more housing increases with demographic and social shifts also requiring a more diverse range of stock. The overall outlook for new releases and completions remains lethargic, resulting in good news for landlords; increased levels of demand and amplified competition for accommodation, forcing upwards pressure on rents. In Melbourne’s CBD an average of 1,010 residential units have been completed annually since 1995, with the current decade averaging approximately 1,600 completions per annum. Despite record completion levels in 2015 and 2016, vacancy rates continued their downward trend as the market absorbed this stock, highlighting the strength of occupier demand levels. Looking forward we can see a diminishing pipeline of supply toward 2023 as suitable sites become less available. The jump in completions in 2020 reflect the response to the removal of off-the-plan stamp duty concessions for investors in July 2017, forcing many developers to bring their projects forward. Despite this increase, there will still be a 77 per cent decrease in completions from 2020 to 2023 if every marketed project reaches completion.
Residential Apartment Completions in Melbourne CBD Active Projects
500
3500
450
# of Apartment Completions
379
400 350
226
250 200 150 100 50
3000 2500 2000
Complete Construction Marketed
1500 1000 500
Net Overseas Migration
Source: Colliers International
Natural Increase
Average
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
Total Population Growth
2000
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
'000
300
4
Managed Investment Trusts (MITs) are a vehicle that allow offshore funds to be pooled from multiple sources to purchase an income producing asset in Australia. This income is then subject to Withholding Tax. Under current policy settings, foreign investors (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc) will be taxed at a rate of 30 per cent on BTR income, rather than the rate of 15 per cent applied to other real estate classes (purposebuilt student accommodation, retail, industrial, office etc).
Average
Source: Colliers International
RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
In Sydney’s Central City, traditionally a smaller residential market with high levels of office demand and less permissive planning rules, an average of 459 residential units have been completed annually since 1995. Evidently, higher levels of completions were achieved throughout the mid-to-late 90s leading toward the 2000 Olympic Games. Over a ten-year period to 2018 only 1,700 apartments were brought to the market (170 p.a.) with three of those years returning no completions whatsoever. This decade Sydney’s CBD has produced approximately 1,498 apartments compared to Melbourne’s 32,000. Whilst completions in 2018 and 2019 represent the strongest levels since 2007, completions will drop off again by approximately 78% in 2020. Similarly, Brisbane’s CBD has primarily been a commercial office market with a relatively small component of residential developments. Due to locational and transport constraints, CBD fringe suburbs such as Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane and West End have developed into much larger apartment markets than the CBD. However, 2019 has proved to be a record-breaking year for the CBD, with the highest number of completions ever recorded, owing to the completion of Brisbane Skytower. Whilst we are comparing three completely different markets, it’s worthwhile highlighting the variance in drivers and demand across the CBDs of Australian three largest cities. Sydney’s apartment market is diverse, and less CBD focused, predominantly due to site availability constraints. Similarly, Brisbane’s CBD is largely an office driven market, with high levels of residential apartment development distributed around its fringes. With strong levels of interstate migration, tourism and infrastructure investment such as the CrossRiver Rail, rental demand in the CBD is anticipated to increase. Melbourne’s CBD apartment market has evolved in response to
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), highlights that home ownership is becoming less attainable, reducing from 70 per cent in 1997-98 to 66 per cent in 2018-19. Over the same period, the number of households that owned their home outright (no mortgage), reduced from 40 per cent to 30 per cent. Supporting this trend, the ABS’ 2017-18 Survey of Income and Housing report reveals that the proportion of households that rent increased from 27 per cent in 1997-98 to 32 per cent in 2017-18. Within this timeframe, Australia’s population has soared from approximately 18.7 million in 1998 to approximately 25 million in 2019. The largest cities in Australia (Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane) continue to experience some of the strongest rates of population growth in the world, driven by an influx of overseas migrants. Generally, overseas migrants choose rental accommodation as their first housing option, which allows them time to better understand the location, preferences, affordability etc before purchasing their own property. Increasing house prices relative to household income has also contributed to the decline of home ownership rates, along with demographic and cultural shifts such as the trend toward later family formation, particularly amongst Millennials. As evident below, renting has become more common amongst all age groups with the rate of renters within each group increasing since 1996. Interestingly, families with children are major contributors to the increase in private renting.
50%
Occupied Dwellings (%)
1200
# of Apatment Completions
Home Ownership v Renting
Change of Tenure
Residential Apartment Completions in Sydney CBD Active Projects Complete
1000
both the strong growth of the overall city as well as the increasing attraction of the CBD which offers unique lifestyle appeal, especially to the fast-growing cohorts of young professionals and university students.
Construction
800 600 400
40%
34%
32.1% 31%
32.1%
34.9% 34.5%
20% 10%
200
0%
0
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Owned Outright
Owned w/ Mortgage
Source: Colliers International, ABS
Residential Apartment Completions in Brisbane CBD Active Projects
Rate of Private Renting by Age Group 45.00 40.00
Complete
800 600
35.00
Per Cent
Construction
30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00
400
10.00 5.00
200
0.00
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
# of Apartment Completions
2016
50.00
1200 1000
Rented
2011
2006
Source: Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
5
30.9% 28.1% 29.6%
30%
20-24 years
25-34 years 1996
35-44 years 2001
45-54 years
55-64 years 2006
65-74 years 2011
75-84 years
85 years and over
2016
Source: Colliers International, Australian Government Productivity Commission
RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
Housing Affordability The term ‘Housing Affordability’ refers to the relationship between expenditure on housing (mortgage payments or rents) and household income. Strong market conditions over the past 30 years have increased the median house price in our major cities by unprecedented numbers: •
502 per cent increase in Sydney
•
513 per cent increase in Melbourne
•
488 per cent increase in Brisbane
As such, housing affordability in Australia has broadly declined since the 1980s and in recent times, many people have been unable to obtain the financial requirements to enter the property market. All age groups except the 65+ bracket have decreased in home ownership rates since 1986 with 25-34 year old’s (Millennials) impacted the most, decreasing by 13 per cent. Whilst Millennials are not considered the sole customer of the BTR model, analysis of the US and UK shows that they make up a substantial pool of tenants. With that in mind, there is a substantial opportunity to provide more rental accommodation for this demographic across our major cities, especially Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. According to 2016 Census data, Millennials make up a significant percentage of the population throughout these cities and evidently, the number of renters has increased since the previous Census in 2011. Greater Sydney: •
The three largest age brackets fall between 25-39 years old (23.4 per cent of population)
•
34.1 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 31.6 per cent in 2011)
Greater Melbourne: • •
The three largest age brackets fall between 20 – 34 years old (23.7 per cent of population) 30 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 27.2 per cent in 2011)
Greater Brisbane: •
The three largest age brackets fall between 20 – 34 years old (22.6 per cent of population)
•
34.5 per cent of dwellings are rented (up from 33 per cent in 2011)
Rate of Private Renting by Household Type
Identifying the top renter suburbs Within these capital cities we have identified the top three suburbs for renters. These rankings have been determined by the number of private dwellings occupied by renters. Despite the number of differences across the cities, the shared fundamentals include strong population growth, distance to employment, transport links and lifestyle amenity. These findings show that a range of opportunities exist for developers throughout markets in the CBD, middle and outer rings. We note that the median rents listed below represent the combination of both old and new stock and do not represent an achievable return for a new Build to Rent project.
Sydney According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in Greater Sydney were: The suburb of Parramatta is located approximately 24 kilometres west of Sydney’s CBD. In 2018, Parramatta lead the state in population growth from overseas migration, attracting 2,606 new residents. As the secondary Central Business District within Metropolitan Sydney, Parramatta has grown into the major hub of Western Sydney, offering employment, transport, shopping and lifestyle amenity. Approximately 46.4 per cent of the population within Parramatta are aged between 25-39 years old, highlighting its popularity amongst young families and professionals. Randwick is positioned approximately 6 kilometres south-east of Sydney’s CBD. The suburb attracts a number of renters due to its proximity to the CBD, beaches, University of NSW, parkland and hospitals. According to Census data, 32.5 per cent of residents are aged between 25-39 years old, once again highlighting the appeal to young professionals and families. Randwick’s world-class medical and research facilities such as the Prince of Wales Hospital, Royal Hospital for Women and Sydney Children’s Hospital has created a strong and diverse tenant pool. Blacktown is located in Greater Western Sydney, approximately 34 kilometres west of Sydney’s CBD and is known for its diverse population, forging a reputation as a multicultural melting pot. Approximately 26.8 per cent of residents are aged between 25-39 years old and there is a high percentage of 0-4 year old’s (8 per cent) compared to the rest of Metropolitan Sydney (6.5 per cent) indicating a strong presence of young families. With only 15 per cent of dwellings being flats or apartments, we have determined the median rent for houses to be more relative.
70.00
Suburb
60.00
Per Cent
50.00 40.00 30.00
10.00
3 Bed/week
Parramatta (apartment)
$450
$500
$620
Randwick (apartment)
$500
$630
$880
-
$380
$420
Source: Domain Couple family with children 1996
One parent family
Couple family without children 2001
Source: Colliers International
6
2 Bed/week
Blacktown (house)
20.00
0.00
1 Bed/week
Other family
2006
Lone person household 2011
Group household
Other households 2016
RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
Interestingly, only one of the three are located within 10 kilometres of the CBD. As BTR begins to be introduced into the Australian market, it’s worth noting that opportunities around areas such as Parramatta or Blacktown provide developers with consistent population growth, strong rental demand and relatively cheap land. By way of comparison, let’s analyse the top three suburbs within 10 kilometres of Sydney’s CBD. The top suburbs in descending order are Randwick (6km), Ashfield (8km) and Chatswood (10km). Ashfield is an inner western suburb of Sydney, approximately 8 kilometres from the CBD. Ashfield is highly regarded for its proximity to the CBD, transport, parks and heritage streetscapes. The dominant age bracket is between 20-34 years old, representing 34.7 per cent of the total population (compared to the Metropolitan Sydney average of 23.9 per cent). In terms of tenure, 51.3 per cent of all occupied dwellings were being rented, compared with the state average of 31.8 per cent. Chatswood is located approximately 10 kilometres from the CBD and acts as the major commercial and transport node in the Lower North Shore. With several large organisations based in Chatswood, employment opportunities have increased demand for residential and retail amenities. The most prevalent age group is between 25-39,
Melbourne According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in Greater Melbourne were: The suburb of Melbourne unsurprisingly took out the number one spot with high levels of demand coming from young professionals and students. Approximately 48.3 per cent of the population within the suburb are aged between 20-29 years old. With record population growth, strong white-collar jobs growth, demand is anticipated to continue at high levels, especially with a forecasted undersupply post 2022-23. South Yarra is an inner-city suburb approximately 4 kilometres from the CBD. The suburb is extremely popular with Millennials due to its proximity to retail, entertainment and transport links. Approximately 46.6 per cent of the population are aged between 20-34 years old. With a median house price hovering around $1,700,000 (REIV), home ownership is unattainable for most, reflected in the fact that 64.5 per cent of dwellings are occupied by renters (compared with the Metropolitan Melbourne average of 30.8 per cent). Approximately 78 per cent of all dwellings are either flats or apartments. St Kilda is a beachside suburb located approximately 6 kilometres
representing 29.1 per cent of the population (Metropolitan Sydney average of 24.3 per cent). Much like Ashfield, Chatswood also has a strong Asian influence with 20.7 per cent of residents born in China, compared with the Metropolitan Sydney average of 5.1 per cent. Approximately 47.1 per cent of all occupied dwellings are inhabited by renters.
south-east of the CBD. The suburb has typically been a mecca for tourists, backpackers, musicians and artists. In recent times, the suburb continues to undergo gentrification with a host of new highend developments, restaurants and bars. Approximately 44.4 per cent of residents are aged between 25-39 years old and 62.9 per cent of occupied dwellings are inhabited by renters.
Despite being the furthest from the CBD, Chatswood commands the higher rent of the three suburbs. As Sydney’s fourth largest commercial centre, incorporating lifestyle, educational and recreational amenity, employment opportunities continue to push residential demand. Chatswood also benefits from it’s own railway station, providing easy access to the CBD.
In 2018, the suburb of Melbourne gained more residents from overseas migration than any other Victorian suburb. The influx of residents, motivated by education, employment and lifestyle, continue to push demand levels and apply upwards pressure on rents.
Suburb
1 Bed/week
2 Bed/week
3 Bed/week
Randwick (apartment)
$500
$610
$850
Ashfield (apartment)
$400
$650
Chatswood (apartment)
$550
$650
Source: Domain
7
Suburb
1 Bed/week
2 Bed/week
3 Bed/week
Melbourne (apartment)
$450
$610
$900
$690
South Yarra (apartment)
$400
$550
$805
$950
St Kilda (apartment)
$370
$495
$723
Source: REA October 2019
RESIDENTIAL | Build to Rent Report | H2 2019
Conclusion
Brisbane According to 2016 Census Data, the top three suburbs for renters in Greater Brisbane were: Caboolture (54km from the CBD) •
47.2 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters
Redbank Plains (35km from the CBD) •
54.8 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters
North Lakes (26km from the CBD) •
41.5 per cent of dwellings occupied by renters
Caboolture, Redbank Plains and North Lakes are all situated in outer suburban locations. Their municipalities (City of Ipswich and Moreton Bay) represent some of the fastest growing parts of Greater Brisbane, occupying large geographical areas and attracting a high number of renters due to the stock age and relative affordability. Evidently, a high proportion of occupied dwellings are occupied by renters compared with the Metropolitan Brisbane average of 35.8 per cent. By way of comparison, we have analysed the top three suburbs within 10 kilometres of Brisbane’s CBD. The top suburbs in ascending order are Nundah (8km), Coorparoo (4km) and New Farm (2km). Nundah, situated approximately 8 kilometres north-east of the CBD, exudes a vibrant village vibe with an abundance of retail, lifestyle and transport amenities within walking distance. As such, it attracts a high number of singles and young professionals. According to the most recent Census data, approximately 26.7 per cent of residents are aged between 25 and 34, substantially greater than the Metropolitan Brisbane average (15.7 per cent). With many people in that age bracket not in a position to purchase a property, it’s no surprise that 57.4 per cent of dwellings in Nundah are occupied by renters. Coorparoo is located approximately 4 kilometres south-east of the CBD, making it appealing to renters with 44.3 per cent of dwellings occupied by tenants. Many young families flock to Coorparoo due to the number of highly regarded schools that the suburb is zoned to. The transport links and proximity to the CBD also appeal to young professionals and singles. Approximately 31 per cent of residents are aged between 20-34 years old, highlighting the wide demographic the suburb appeals to. New Farm, one of the most exclusive and highly sought-after suburbs in Brisbane, is located approximately 2 kilometres north of the CBD. Home to a large population of young professionals and families (35 per cent of residents aged between 25-39 years of age), New Farm’s leafy surrounds, convenience to the CBD and vibrant community make it one of the most in demand inner-city hotspots. Flats and apartments are the predominant dwelling in New Farm, making up 75.2 per cent of all occupied dwellings. Tellingly, 57.2 per cent of all dwellings are occupied by renters. Suburb Nundah (apartment)
2 Bed/week
3 Bed/week
$318
$385
$460
Coorparoo (apartment)
$310
$365
$495
New Farm (apartment)
$330
$440
$690
Source: REA October 2019
8
1 Bed/week
Despite the challenges ahead, there are a number of opportunities that exist for BTR investment across Australia’s largest cities. There are various markets around Australia in which a BTR investment case could be created. It is imperative that developers conduct thorough research and demographic analysis to ensure they identify who their market is and what they value to ensure yields and returns are maximised. Moving forward, the success of the BTR model will revolve around its ability to differentiate from the private rental sector through the level of service (management), security, design, amenity and tenure. The ability to adopt the mentality of ‘customers’ rather than ‘tenants’ will be imperative. Currently, BTR is not treated as a standalone asset class, despite residential housing being a $6.6 Trillion asset in Australia (as of September 2019). If the Government and industry can work together to create the framework for improved policy, address taxation concerns and streamline development approval, then the BTR model has the scope to become a meaningful real estate investment for local and international institutions that also delivers upon a range of community and policy objectives including a more diverse stock of quality housing choices.
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Offering a team of experts across every asset class and every service, we invest in relationships to create enduring value. When it comes to delivering this value for your property, collaboration is key. Our team of industry leaders work together to drive exceptional results. OUR RESEARCH EXPERTS Anneke Thompson Head of Research Australia +61 412 581 647
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Colliers International does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. Colliers International will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Š Colliers International 2019.
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