Bangkok Condominium Market Q1-2010

c o l l i e r s i n t e r n at i o n a l

| T H AILAN D

The Knowledge Report B a n g ko k C o n d o m i n i um M a rk e t |

1 s t Q U A RT E R

|

2010

Executive Summary New launches in Q1 2010 continue the breakneck pace set in the last quarter of 2009.

Market Indicators 2009 - Q1 2010

SUPPLY

Tax incentives remain an impetus to temporarily boosting existing supply and the future expiration of incentives at the end of May are likely to cool the market, allowing for some consolidation.

Demonstrations in Bangkok have had only a limited affect on condominium launches as end-user buyers maintain interest in purchasing their first property.

2010 is likely to see the largest completion of new supply since 1997 with an estimated increase of just over 30,230 units compared with approximately 27,430 units in 2009. About 6,940 units were supplied in Q1 2010.

Launches Prices take-up

New condominium launches dominate property market in Bangkok Newly launched condominium units during the year 2009 - Q1 2010 by quarter

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

www.colliers.co.th

The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

The first quarter of 2010 continued where 2009 left off with the property market abuzz with new condominium launches. Nearly 13,700 units were launched in Q1 2010, a handful fewer than the previous quarter. While the rest of the real estate sectors were recording sclerotic growth in Q1, the condominium market flourished due to its own internal demand generators. One of the primary factors behind this growth was the demand coming from end users in the form of first time buyers. According to the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC), nearly nine tenths of all new condominium unit purchasers in Bangkok in 2009 were from first time buyers. Also about 46% of buyers were in the 2029 age group. The reason they could place their first step on the property ladder was that developers were targeting affordability by reducing the average size of one bedroom units which has led to a reduction in the appeal for studios. A number of listed developers are shifting their focus from high end condominiums to the locally driven mid-end segment of the market.

The lure of mass transit has continued to play a significant part in the escalation of the condominium market as developers seek to locate new projects in proximity to existing and forthcoming lines.

Vantage by Eastern Star

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Nearly 90% of purchasers of new condominium units in Bangkok in 2009 are first time buyers.

The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

ZONING

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

• CITY AREA

The area covers four adjacent but competing sub-markets: the Sukhumvit section comprising Sukhumvit Road between Soi 1 and Soi 55 to the north and Soi 2 and Soi 38 to the south; the Central Lumpini section including Phloen Chit Road, Rama I Road, Soi Langsuan, Soi Sarasin, Chitlom Road Ratchadamri Road, Witthayu Road and Rachaprasong Road; the

• CITY FRINGE AREA

This area covers three parts of Bangkok:

o Northern Fringe: This section covers the

BTS route starting from Ratchathewi Station

to Mo Chit Station to the north and the MRT

route starting from Petchaburi station to

Bangsue station to the north.

o Southern Fringe: This section covers

Narathiwad Ratchanakarin Road, Chan Road,

Sathupradit Road, Charoenkrung Road and

Rama III Road along the Chaophraya River.

Silom / Sathorn section; and the Riverside section fronting the Chaophraya River along Charoenkrung Road and Charoennakorn Road, where several five-star hotels are located. The City Area is convenient for businessmen, expatriates and tourists, because of its proximity to many office buildings, retailing and local attractions.

o Eastern Fringe: This section covers the BTS route starting from Thong Lor Station to On Nut Station to the east, Rama IV Road and Petchaburi Road, This area covers locations with their own local infrastructure and convenient transportation but require commuting to have access to the central business and entertainment areas.

• OUTER CITY AREA

The area covers two parts of Bangkok:

o Outer City (East): This section starts from

the extension of the BTS route at On Nut

Station to the Bangkok boundary to the east.

o Outer City (West): This section starts from

• SUBURBAN BANGKOK

These are the environs outside the areas already mentioned. Expansion of the mass transit system is the main determinant for increasing future supply in a particular area. The expansion from On - Nut to Samut Prakarn is scheduled to be completed in 2011. The expansion of the BTS will benefit directly the surrounding condominiums, as it will considerably reduce transportation costs and time. This will encourage the development of new condominiums in this area. Suburban Bangkok represents the biggest area and for the purposes of this report includes Bangkok city old town (Koh Rattanakosin area and boundary area). This location has comprehensive town planning controls restricting building height, so there are no condominium projects in the area.

the extension of the BTS route at Taksin Station to Bang Wa station which includes the area from Krung Thonburi Road to Ratchaphruek Road near Petchakasem intersection.

U - Delight @ Jatujak Station

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Chapter One Modern Dutch

Newly launched condominium units in Q1 2010 by location

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

Although suburban Bangkok area continued to lead with just under 8,400 units being launched in Q1 2010, within the urban area the Northern Fringe remains the main target for developers due to the existence of mass transit lines, especially the BTS. One particular project called U-Delight from Grande Unity Development was launched with over 900 units. This represented nearly a third of the total launched units in the northern fringe area for Q1 2010.

The majority of new launches were in the low to mid end category with a number of large scale projects being launched in the suburban Bangkok area with Chapter One Modern Dutch from Pruksa Real Estate Plc, Parc Exo Kaset-Naramin from Phusiri Property Co., Ltd. and Lumpini Place Ratchayothin from LPN Development all with over 1,000 units each put on the market.

The latter was sold out in one day and contained small sized one bedroom units.

In the higher end category, the PYNE by Sansiri was launched with 298 units. This development, next to Ratchathewi BTS station, was sold out on the first day. Chamchuri Residence, already built, was officially launched in Q1 2010 with three to four bedroom units available.

While listed developers continued to dominate in terms of number of units launched, Q1 2010 was notable for minor, non-listed developers offering smaller scale projects to the market. The average size development in Q1 2010 was 472 units compared with 532 units in Q4 2009. The average size from listed developers amounted to 707 units compared to 280 units from non-listed developers for Q1 2010.

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Historical Supply Supply of CONDOMINIUM units

Source : Department of Land, Colliers International Thailand Research Remark :The number of units does not include projects from the National Housing Authority

Total supply of condominium units in Bangkok as of Q1 2010 is approximately 270,000 units, new supply added in Q1 2010 was just over 6,940 units or approximately a quarter of the total new supply in 2009 (approximately 27,430 units) Total condominium supply scheduled to be completed in 2010 is estimated to be

about 30,230 units. The hangover from the Asian Financial Crisis abated in 2007 and now growth in the condominium market has been intensifying from that period onwards.

Supply by Location to Q1 2010

Source : Department of Land, Colliers International Thailand Research

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Suburban Bangkok contains by far the lion’s share of condominium development due to its sheer size and appeal to low and mid end mass residential projects. Within the urban Bangkok area,

the Northern Fringe and City area dominate due to the location and access to mass transit lines.

City Area

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

Approximately 1,230 condominium units were added in Q1 2010 which raises the total units in this area to just shy of the 21,000 mark which represented an increase of over 6% from 2009. The Noble Remix added 518 units in Q1 2010 and 368 units came from The Emporio Place by TCC Group. Total condominium

supply scheduled to be completed in 2010 is around 2,150 units.

Despite its high land prices and limited land plots available for development, the City area still continues to be a key location for high-end condominium projects.

Northern Fringe Area

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

The Northern Fringe area had a new supply in Q1 2010 of almost 1,270 units. This area, covering many mass transit stations, has become the dominant player in condominium development in urban Bangkok. In 2007 it surpassed the City Area in overall supply. While the BTS in this area has been in operation for over ten years, the development of residential products hugging these

lines continues apace. New sought after locations are coming to the fore, notably Ari, a few stops away from the centre. The continual rapid growth demonstrates how new condominium development along new mass transits lines can remain durable many years after completion and operation.

Future Supply Future supply scheduled to be completed during the year 2010 – 2013 by location. (As of Q1 2010)

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

While the suburban Bangkok area continues to be the biggest player, new urban supply now clearly outpaces the suburbs. This reflects the increasing urbanization of the city. For the next couple of years the Northern Fringe area is set to dominate urban supply. The main reasons of the popularity of Northern Fringe area is the relatively lower land prices compared to the City area and the proximity to a large number of MRT and BTS stations.

Outer City – West shows rapid development, this will be limited due to the extension only encompassing two new stations. The Southern Fringe continues to be the laggard due to no mass transit lines being built or even planned in this area. Only the new Bus Rapid Transit feeder system, set to start operation in 2010, is the only hope for igniting interest in this area but the success of such a system remains highly uncertain.

The two new growth areas are located in the Outer City areas where the BTS extension has begun operations in the west and is scheduled to start operation in the east in late 2011. While the

A Space Asoke - Ratchada

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Noble RE : D

The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Demand Drivers Focus Unit sizes Developers have continued to bring average unit sizes down and have focused on one bedroom units. Some projects only contain this particular configuration. These smaller sized units offer flexibility as they can cater for young families buying their first home as well as singles looking to rent or purchase a studio style “pad”.

Colliers International Thailand have located what is believed to be the smallest standard unit size for a one bedroom condominium. These are located at L.P.N. Development’s Lumpiniville

Ratburana-Riverview which was launched in Q1 2010 and consists of 26 sq m unit sizes. Unit sizes in other projects are in the 28-34 sq m range and consist of sliding doors which means they can double up as a studio style unit. Consequently the appeal of solely studio units has diminished.

L.P.N. Development’s Lumpiniville Ratburana-Riverview and plan of its 26 sq m one bedroom units.

Mass transit lines BTS and MRT lines remain a considerable draw for condominium demand with prices rising dramatically in relation to the distance to the project. Colliers International Thailand Research has calculated that within the City Area, prices within 200 metres from the BTS line are at an over 20% premium to those located over 500 metres away. In the Northern the difference rises to around 75%. However this is not a surefire way for success as discussed in the Take Up section.

Foreign demand The condominium market has been almost solely lead by domestic demand due partly to the launching of more affordable units in the low to mid end category and the current unstable political environment that deters foreign investment. There seems to be a modest revival in foreign demand in luxury projects such as the Ritz Carlton Residences but is largely confined to buyers who are familiar with Thailand.

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Interest rates The one-day repurchase rate has continued to remain at 1.25% during Q1 2010 due to the precariousness of the global economic recovery and instability within the country. Most analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged until some time in the second half of 2010 when inflationary pressures are likely to take hold. The current low interest rates have also been a boost for

demand. However future rises may temper demand somewhat although most buyers would have likely accepted that present low rates are unlikely to be sustained in the long term.

Take up Sales proportion of newly launched units in Q1 2010 by location

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

The take up rate for condominium projects in Bangkok for Q1 was approximately 68%. The occupancy rate in the Eastern Fringe area is the highest but this was because only one development was launched in Q1 namely the Lumpini Place Rama 4 – Kluaynamthai project which sold out all of its 887 units in 3 hours.

Second came suburban Bangkok and the Northern Fringe area with both around 66%. The low figures recorded for the Outer City West reflects the high selling prices of newly launched projects which are deterring potential buyers from making a swift decision. The lower numbers for the Outer City East are explained by the poor reputation the city has for delays to its mass transit lines, the main spur for development in this area along with the poor location of many projects along sois some way from the future BTS extension line. The City Area figures are due to the high costs of purchasing property in this area.

Lumpini Place Ratchayothin

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Take up in proximity to existing mass transit lines

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

Take up rate of condominium projects far from BTS / MRT lines less than 200 meters came close to 73%, a high figure considering the relatively higher prices as discussed earlier. However projects located 201 – 500 meters from BTS / MRT lines showed the lowest rate of around 26%. This low figure is due to many projects

being located away from the main road sometimes in out of the way sois but with selling prices still high or similar to projects located on the main road or nearer to BTS / MRT lines. Projects located further than 1,000 meters came second at nearly 73% due to the low selling price of projects.

Supalai River Resort Mahanakorn Project

Take up rates – 100% sold out versus the wait and see approach When price is the primary issue then a reputable developer providing reasonable quality units at an affordable price has been largely successful in selling out its units within a few days or even hours in a number of cases. While the City Area and locations along mass transit networks remain key draws, potential buyers are unlikely to rush into decisions and are more discerning in

their choice. This would reflect consumer behavior for higher end products in general. Developers still need to consider the specific location, even if close to mass transit stations; as well as configuration, design and affordability.

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Initial Launch Prices Selling prices of newly launched projects by location 2005 – Q1 2010

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

Note: Figures for City Area, Eastern Fringe and Southern Fringe for Q1 2010 have not been included as projects in the City Area are unrepresentative due to their poor locations and only one project has been launched in the other two areas respectively which does not reflect the general market.

The average selling price in suburban Bangkok area decreased by around 23% due to condominium projects in this area being located far from public facilities and main roads. A similar pattern can be seen for Outer City East. The drive for affordability in a still uncertain economic and political environment has kept prices stable and this is likely to continue for the rest of the year.

Pyne by Sansiri

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Launch prices: Mass Transit Effect Selling prices of newly launched projects by proximity to mass transit lines 2009– Q1 2010

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research

As discussed earlier the proximity to mass transit lines can have a significant impact on prices. From initial research it appears that the further out from the city centre the stations are the greater the effect they have on pricing. In the Outer-City East prices come close to doubling between those condominiums located over 500 metres away and those within 200 metres. The differ-

ence in distance is significant when considering the more or less year round heat in tropical climates like Bangkok. Literally an extra 100 metre walk can wreak havoc on a shirt or blouse during a walk to work. Taking regular taxis and motorbikes for just 500 metres even for a small family would be cost prohibitive without even considering the hassle factor.

Fuse Sathorn - Taksin

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

Forecast The quadruple spur of lower unit sizes, mass transit lines, government tax incentives and low interest rates have provided the basis for the dramatic rise in condominium launches over the past two quarters. This will ensure robust supply going forward for the next couple of years. It has been predicted that interest rates will rise in the second half of 2010 as the economy starts to show signs of continual growth and that the tax incentives will cease at the end of May. With these in mind it can therefore be expected that the number of launches will remain high for Q2 and then rapidly reduce in the second half of 2010. This will not be necessarily a bad thing as developers can consolidate and focus on construction of the new projects. However the demand for affordable residential properties remains undiminished due to the growing middle classes and urbanization of the country.

The continual rapid selling out of low to mid end projects shows that pent up demand has not been sated. Therefore we predict continual, if slower paced launches going forward and a continued robust market for the next few years.

In light of the recent demonstrations and a potential serious worsening of the political situation the possibility exists for deterioration in Bangkok’s economy. In this event there is a likelihood that interest rates will remain low and incentives extended but in such an economic climate it is difficult to predict how immune local condominium purchasers will be.

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Condominium Market

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