THAILAND ECONOMY & PROPERTY MARKET - MONTHLY VIEW JAN 2010

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL THAILAND | RESEARCH & FOREC ASTING

Property Snapshot THAILAND ECONOMY & PROPERTY MARKET COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL THAILAND - MONTHLY VIEW JAN 2010

Economy

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The Fiscal Policy Office have projected that Thailand’s GDP will contract by 2.8% for the whole of 2009. This implies an anticipated 0.78% increase q/q from Q3, lower than the corresponding increase of 2.1% the previous quarter. However the finalized GDP figures for Q4 and consequently the whole year will not be known until late February. It would seem fair to say with the current figures and projections on hand that Thailand is emerging on a course of sustained but cautious economic growth. This is underscored by the rebound of its main trading partners.

Forecasts for GDP growth for Thailand 2010

Source The Bank of Thailand

GDP Growth 3.3 – 5.3%

UOB Economic – Treasury Research

4.3%

Reuters poll of economists

3.5%

The Fiscal Policy Office

3.5%

Asian Development Bank Bangkok Bank NESDB

3% 3% 3-4%

The Business Expectation Index from the Ministry of Commerce showed a marked up tick in overall confidence going into the new year. Just over 53% thought business prospects were good for 2010 compared with 37.7% for Q4 2009. In Bangkok sentiment was exceptionally bullish with over three quarters of respondents positive about the new year.

The Fiscal Policy Office have projected that Thailand’s GDP will contract by 2.8% for the whole of 2009. This implies an anticipated 0.78% increase q/q from Q3, lower than the corresponding increase of 2.1% the previous quarter.

December marked the first month of 2009 where the Baht actually depreciated against the US dollar. During December the dollar firmed by 0.44%. This was welcome relief for those who were concerned by a continuing rise of the Baht which could negatively effect its export performance. Over the past decade the proportion of exports to the United States has more than halved to nearly 11% of total export value. However, about 80% of trade that comes in and out of the country is paid for in US dollars. As a result a further fall in the US dollar would adversely affect exporters’ bottom lines, especially for low value added, low margin products. The other side of the coin is the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) which measures the currency against a basket of its trading partners and competitors. Despite an appreciation of 0.78% in December m/m, on a y/y basis the Baht lightly depreciated by 0.27% which underlined the overall stability of the currency and therefore competiveness during a difficult 2009.

Core inflation remained at 0% m/m and only a negligible 0.3% rise in 2009 from 2008. For headline inflation (including food and energy prices) the figures were -0.1% and -1.9% respectively. The overall fall in prices during the year was a result in a 13.1% fall in volatile energy prices which demonstrates that no inflationary or deflationary pressures are evident going into 2010. As a result, The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its 1-day repurchase rate at 1.25% in January in order to encourage the delicate momentum that is taking root in the economy. General opinion is that rates could rise in H2 2010 depending on growth and inflationary prospects going forward.

The Construction Materials Price index in December 2009 decreased 0.2% from the previous month and a significant 13.1 decrease in 2009 from 2008. The overall decline is a consequence of a decline in construction activity. However 2010 may lead to a tightening of construction costs as residential development along new mass transit lines moves into a higher gear.

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PROPERTY SNAPSHOT | JAN 2010

Global Highlights The recent official launch of the tallest building in the world in Dubai provided a cause to cheer after the recent traumatic events surrounding the emirate’s debt. However this has come at a price. The sudden name change from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa, the name of the ruler of Abu Dhabi, literally minutes before the opening indicates that Dubai will likely be protected by the oil rich emirate when further debts mature but Abu Dhabi will extract its pound of flesh.

Greece became the next country to shake the jittery confidence in the recovery of the global economy. With a debt burden of 12.7% of GDP, more than double the previous figure, alarm bells rang as to possible default of this euro zone country’s debt. Such a crisis could cause contagion in other debt burdened nations in the EU including Italy, Ireland and even the UK. Whether the EU will rescue the country in case of default remains unclear. The Greek government has stressed that the austerity measures that will be enacted will ease the debt crisis and no assistance will be necessary.

The sudden name change from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa, the name of the ruler of Abu Dhabi, literally minutes before the opening indicates that Dubai will likely be protected by the oil rich emirate when further debts mature but Abu Dhabi will extract its pound of flesh.

Investment The registered capital of approved applications for investment at the Board of Investment fell by over 43% in the period January to December 2009 y/y from 497.8 billion Baht to 281.4 billion Baht.. The fall can be attributed to reduced direct foreign investment while domestic investment remained firm. This factor is likely to raise the question as to whether Thailand should be so reliant on foreign investment in the future and how they can encourage the utilization of further domestic capital into the system. The year ended with a surge in submitted applications for approval in December 2009 with a total registered capital of over 330 billion Baht for that month alone compared to 393.2 billion Baht for the rest of the year. This was mainly due to the ending of special investment promotion incentives on 31 December 2009 which could provide a significant fillip to overall investment sentiment going into the new year.

TPARK Logistics Property Fund (TLOGIS) was set up in December by Ticon Industrial Connection and BBL Asset Management. The fund is worth 1.53 billion Baht and will invest in land, warehouses and cold storage facilities of the Ticon Logistics Park.

Transaction Metrostar Property Plc sold 10 plots of land on Phahon Yothin Road to L.P.N. Development Plc in January 2010. The total transaction value was 680.9 million Baht. The land would be used to develop Lumpini Place Ratchayothin, a condominium project consisting of four 22-level buildings consisting of 1,964 units.

The Grand M.P. Resort Hotel, Petchakasem Road, Muang District, Trang Province with a land area 60 Rai and 251 rooms was sold by Mr. Pitak Rangsitham to the owner of Siriban Shopping Center, Trang Ruam Paet Hospital and local investors for 350 million Baht in December 2009.

Siam Future Development sold its Khao Yai Market Village in Nakhon Ratchasima to Ek-Chai Distribution, the operator of Tesco Lotus discount stores for 198 million Baht.

The registered capital of approved applications for investment at the Board of Investment fell by over 43% in the period January to December 2009.

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Office There were signs that occupancy increased slightly in December with demand coming from local companies.

With the advent of the free trade pacts with China, India and Australia/New Zealand, there could well be an increase in demand for office space from these countries during the course of the next few years as trading ties advance.

Condominium The condominium market remained one of the relatively few bright spots in the otherwise bleak property market in 2009. The two charts below show how the residential sector remained resilient to the economic downturn in contrast to the period of the Asian economic crisis a decade ago. The charts refer to outstanding housing loans amount for owner occupiers in housing and condominiums in Thailand. The provision of more mid end apartment units by developers and the extension of loan provisions by the Government Housing Bank, other public institutions and commercial banks are the main factors behind this trend.

With the advent of the free trade pacts with China, India and Australia/New Zealand, there could well be an increase in demand for office space from these countries during the course of the next few years as trading ties advance.

Outstanding housing loans in Thailand

Colliers International Thailand Research Source: Bank of Thailand

Colliers International Thailand Research Source: Bank of Thailand

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The residential market is set to fizz in 2010 as developers make extensive plans for new residential developments, making the most of projected low interest rates, mass transit line extensions and more affordable housing projects.

The recent success of L.P.N. Development launched mid end projects is likely to spur a number of developers to realign their future products away from the more volatile high end segment and towards to the surging demand for mass residential catering to the expanding middle classes.

In December Bright Sukhumvit 24 was launched with 292 units for sale with unit area of between 64-542 sq m. The developer is Albright Holding and this is the first property development from the previous textile company owner. Five levels have already been constructed in order to create confidence in potential buyers as regards to completion, which is scheduled for December 2011.

The recent success of L.P.N. Development launched mid end projects is likely to spur a number of developers to realign their future products away from the more volatile high end segment and towards to the surging demand for mass residential catering to the expanding middle classes.

The Link Sukhumvit 64 was also launched in December with 122 units and unit areas ranging from 40-50.5 sq m. The developer is Tararom Estate Co., Ltd. and is scheduled to be completed in 2011.

Insight – Manufacturing during the past decade The next chart shows the relative increase in manufacturing in the most significant product classifications during the previous decade. All sectors started at 100 in the year 2000 and then charts how each has grown over the last decade. Clearly the two champions of the 2000’s were electronics and vehicle manufacturing and this demonstrates how Thailand has benefited from a relatively positive investment environment and is set to benefit more in the next decade due to the dramatic changes afoot in the Asian economic arena.

Colliers International Thailand Research Source: Bank of Thailand

Vehicle market – A success story for Thailand Thailand’s car manufacturing has emerged on the back of foreign direct investment from the Japanese and American automobile companies. This was due initially to the relatively attractive investment environment but also because of domestic car demand within Thailand, a key factor in location of automotive production.

The factors behind the growth of vehicle manufacturing in the country are instructive for not only what Thailand did but what it didn’t do. Thailand’s car manufacturing has emerged on the back of foreign direct investment from the Japanese and American automobile companies. This was due initially to the relatively attractive investment environment but also because of domestic car demand within Thailand, a key factor in location of automotive production. Crucially Malaysia and Indonesia, both with large domestic demand, embarked on national car programmes. The success of the Proton car in Malaysia in capturing the market at the expense of foreign models also reduced the potential domestic demand for foreign invested products thus making it a less attractive investment destination. Although Indonesia’s national car never materialized, it deterred investors fearing an uneven playing field. Thailand’s laissez faire approach created the momentum for regional dominance. The next factor was the ASEAN free trade area which allowed investors to hone production in fewer countries due to the low ASEAN import tax and this benefited Thailand with its solid vehicle manufacturing base.

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While vehicle manufacturing boomed during the past decade, especially for pick ups and passenger cars, the second wave of FDI came in the form of suppliers forming their own facilities in Thailand, moving away from technology licenses to direct control. The upshot was greater innovation within the country and ironically an increase in the ratio of locally sourced supplies compared to imported ones and this lead to a separate market for the export of vehicle parts. Thailand has also gained by domestic companies taking the role of the third wave of broad based suppliers of the suppliers market.

The capital intensity of vehicle production and the need for extensive supply chains means that FDI is highly unlikely to shift on short term factors thus buffeting Thailand from the political unrest that has occurred from time to time. Simply leaving the market alone can work to the country’s advantage and the latest free trade agreements with China, India and Australia/New Zealand represent a far greater opportunity than a threat.

Already Tata Motors from India has operations and Chery Automobile is in the process of setting up facilities.

Electronics Industry – Soaring but with challenges ahead

Electronics represents about 30% of total exports and is also fundamentally FDI lead but unlike the automotive industry, Thai companies account for the lion’s share of suppliers.

Electronics represents about 30% of total exports and is also fundamentally FDI lead but unlike the automotive industry, Thai companies account for the lion’s share of suppliers. The rapid advance began with a surge of Japanese multinational seeking manufacturing bases abroad to escape from the Plaza Accord induced strong Yen. The pro export strategy of Thailand, along with a low paid but productive workforce, encouraged such companies to gravitate towards the country which created the engine for growth.

The generally pro market policies as well the development of a dependable Thai supplier network has allowed the industry to flourish. However, electronics manufacturing in Thailand remains essentially assembly based and incremental changes have been made toward technology transfer. Thailand therefore remains a follower rather than leader of innovation and any forced attempts to change this pattern could lead to companies relocating or not expanding, similar to the aftermath of the national car project in Indonesia.

The lack of serious progress into higher value electronics manufacturing can be partly explained by the fact that about 90% of R&D workers are found in the public or educational as opposed to private sector. This disconnect between entrepreneurialism and research capability is a hindering factor going forward. While it is almost impossible for Thailand to leapfrog further developed countries in existing industries the focus should be on how Thailand can create, lead and exploit “the next big thing” in IT. Steve Jobs, Larry Elison and Sergy Brin were not forged in the furnace of government agencies and research organizations but rather in an environment of openness, curiosity, critical thinking and boldness. That is way forward in the 21st century.

Industrial

Colliers International Thailand Research Source: Bank of Thailand

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After the steep falls in manufacturing output at the end of 2008, production ramped up during the course of 2009 to return to pre crisis levels.

The new decade began brightly with the implementation of the free trade agreements between ASEAN and China, India and Australia/New Zealand. Already in the first couple of weeks of 2010 two multinationals in the form of Samsonite and Haier from China announced that they are planning on moving more production to Thailand to take advantage of the new agreements.

The new decade began brightly with the implementation of the free trade agreements between ASEAN and China, India and Australia/New Zealand.

The initial optimism of the free trade area was cast in doubt with warnings from two important organizations representing top FDI investor Japan. Both the Japan Chamber of Commerce and the Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) have raised serious concerns in relation to the impasse regarding Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate. Both have stated that other locations such as Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam are more attractive investment locations due to the overall prolonged uncertainties in the country. As large manufacturers make long term strategic investment decisions in light of the new trading opportunities presented by the free trade agreements, Thailand risks being left out in the cold and this will seriously make inroads into any economic growth over the new decade. The need to resolve the Map Ta Phut case is becoming more acute by the day.

The Central Administrative Court recently rejected petitions seeking the green light for 30 suspended projects in the estate.

Retail Thailand’s retail business in the fourth quarter 2009 is encouraging. The government stimulus package has released money into the system, ultimately increasing consumer spending and sales. Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 70.4 in December from 69.1 the previous month. This represents the highest point in 16 months.

Retail developers are still awaiting the outcome of the new retail law that will curtail new large retail developments in the city area.

Retail developers are still awaiting the outcome of the new retail law that will curtail new large retail developments in the city area. While future planning is on hold until a decision has finally been made, concentration has focused on refurbishing existing retail sites. Centralplaza in Lad Prao will be closed from end of April until October 2010 for renovation totally 2.1 billion Baht. Expect developers to concentrate in the future on improving space utilization of existing outlets, smaller retail centres located in community malls and expansion into outer Bangkok and the regions. The growth of the new mass transit lines is likely to kindle the development of community style malls catering for residents.

Serviced Apartment Oakwood Asia Pacific opened its latest edition to its serviced apartment stable with the 131 room Oakwood Trilliant in Sukhumvit 18 at the beginning of the year. It is concentrating on offering daily rates.

2010 promises to be a busy one for Thonglor with a number of new developments opening in the first few months.

2010 promises to be a busy one for Thonglor with a number of new developments opening in the first few months. Along with condominium development taking place, the area will be an interesting micro market in the coming years developing its own identity with themed community malls likely to be the fashion catering to a semi transient population.

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Hotel The tourism sector started to pick itself up after a torrid 2009. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) predicted 14 million visitors have visited Thailand in 2009, a 3.7% drop from last year. However the Federation of Thai Tourism Industries expects overall revenue from tourism grew 20% in 2009 from 2008. Considering the events in December 2009 and April 2010 these figures would appear to be robust and indicates that the tourism industry should improve over 2010 if the political situation remains calm.

Occupancy rates in most hotels Bangkok fell in December q/q by between 3% to 15% reflecting the drop in business visitors during the festive period. This was accompanied by a reduction in ADR for most hotels of 2-10% q/q. A number of luxury and boutique hotels increased their ADR due to a focus on the tourism market. The same period was a better one for the resort hotels cashing in on the Christmas tourism period with only small variations to occupancy rates from November but with significantly increased RevPAR figures as a result of steep price increases of around 30% during this period.

Considering the events in December 2009 and April 2010 these figures would appear to be robust and indicates that the tourism industry should improve over 2010 if the political situation remains calm.

The TAT has targeted 15-15.5 million visitors in 2010 while the Federation of Thai Tourism Industries forecasts 14.5 million while the Tourism and Sports Ministry predicts Thailand will welcome 16 million visitors.

The authorities are likely to extend their tourism promotion measures beyond March including waiving visa fees and encouraging medical tourism.

Impact Exhibition Management plans to invest Bt2 billion to develop a four-star hotel located in the IMPACT Exhibition and Convention Center on the outskirts of Bangkok. It is scheduled to open in early 2011 and will target the MICE market. The hotel will consist of 381 rooms.

Two new hotels in Pattaya opened for business at the beginning of the year. The 132 room Best Western Premier Signature Pattaya is the chain’s 14th property in the country. The 353 room Pullman Pattaya Aisawan Resort opened in January.

The Board of Investment recently amended the eligibility criteria and conditions for investment promotion in Thailand relating to hotels. Previously hotels with a minimum of 100 rooms can qualify for tax and nontax privileges. These include exemption from corporate income tax on profit subject to certain conditions, and exemption from import duty on equipment and machinery used in the project. The non-tax privileges include the right to own land on which the promoted project is located and permission to hire skilled foreign workers. The criteria has been extended to projects with at least 100 rooms or a minimum investment capital of THB 500 million (excluding the cost of land and working capital). This could spur foreign investment in small luxury hotels with less than 100 rooms.

Antony Picon Senior Manager | Research & Advisory antony.picon@colliers.com

Surachet Kongcheep Manager | Research & Advisory surachet.kongcheep@colliers.com

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