1Q
STEVEN D. MARTIN
April 30, 2012
Managing Principal Two Midtown Plaza, Suite 1100 1349 West Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, Georgia 30309-2956 Tel: 404-877-9296 Fax: 404-870-2845 E-mail: sdm@sdmpartners.com www.sdmpartners.com
SDM Partners Real Estate Market INSIGHTS
Well?!
At the end of April in both 2010 and 2011, we found ourselves pretty much at the same place – 4
months of mostly positive news/results and the hope that things were finally back on track. However, the past two years, post-April, an economic retreat has occurred. To that end, March 2012’s job numbers disappointed and the late April GDP growth rate was only 2.2%. What to do?! Is it BRAKE time again or finally time to put the GAS pedal to the floor? Damn – this stuff is hard! Deal-wise, I feel like I am back in high school and one of the wild and cool kids is trying to get this very straight kid – and I was – to smoke some weed. Come on Dude, take a hit off this – only now the doobie is interest rates – Columbian-LIBOR or sinsemilla-T-bills! Hear me when I tell you, there is a BIG ass-whoopin’ coming for those who shortsightedly grossly overpay due to cheap short-term debt. And OH YEAH, our government is the biggest “stoner” of all! INSIGHTS addresses this later in the letter and the attached articles. Today’s low rates are VERY harmful. They are pushing capital to take more risk in search of yield all the while punishing savers and rewarding borrowers. NOT FAIR! Where are the FAIRNESS Police when you need them? Obama!! (Note: FAIR is sarcastic here and throughout INSIGHTS.) YES, 1Q INSIGHTS, like past letters, is written as a “stream of consciousness” with comments on the many factors affecting business, CRE and our country, with the occasional data point, random fact or hokie saying. You
get what you pay for! In short, the Beta (for you un-Bschooled, a measure of volatility) out “there” is still pretty high with the economic roller coaster ride continuing. And given the lack of “adult supervision” in Washington and the pending election(s), I do not see much changing. Let’s just hope and pray that November brings a clearer picture, true leadership and a mandate to make the hard and painful decisions necessary so our country and economy can move forward. However, buckle your chin straps, the next 200 or so days will get very ugly politically. The single issue and social issue types from BOTH sides will dominate – never mind that NONE of this STUFF really has anything to do with running our country! And if that were not enough, BOTH sides will try to bluff their way into office by taking advantage of the ignorance of many, playing on the fears of most and promising things only a child would believe – Santa Claus, Big Foot or Keynesian Economics. I feel better now and enjoy the 1Q INSIGHTS.