Q4 2010 | INDUSTRIAL
NORTH AMERICA
HIGHLIGHTS
U.S. Industrial Market Finishes 2010 on a High Note Further Gains Anticipated in 2011 Ross J. Moore Chief Economist | USA
Relative to prior period
Q4 2010
Q1 2011*
VACANCY NET ABSORPTION construction rental rate *Projected
u.s. industrial market
Summary Statistics, Q4 2010
Vacancy Rate: 10.74% Change from Q3 2010: –0.22
The U.S. industrial market finished 2010 with a notable surge capping off three consecutive quarters of positive absorption. Solid demand for warehouse space in most regions coupled with minimal construction created the conditions for a sudden reversal in vacancy, and almost certainly heralds the beginning of the next cycle. The vacancy rate dropped nationally by nearly a quarter of a percentage point during the quarter—significantly more in select markets. Despite newfound optimism and a noticeable pick-up in leasing activity, warehouse rents fell over the quarter, dropping by 2.1 percent to $4.60 per square foot. With the economy registering healthy growth in the fourth quarter, and similar expansion anticipated in coming quarters, demand for warehouse space is expected to increase as the year progresses. A giant positive for industrial markets is the continued rise in import and export activity which continues to benefit not only key port markets, but also any distribution nodes that are part of the supply chain. Another positive for warehouse markets is manufacturing, which continues to show surprising growth as measured by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. For January the ISM manufacturing index registered 60.8—the highest level in nearly seven years and well above the critical 50 level that indicates expansion. As 2011 unfolds the industrial market is expected to improve on the back of a thriving manufacturing sector and further increases in global trade. Although signs of a true rebound in the warehouse market are still a few quarters away, almost all economic indicators suggest demand for warehouse space will only increase during 2011. With almost no new warehouse construction coming onto the market, even a modest bounce-back in demand will quickly
Under Construction: 22.7 Million Square Feet Asking Rents Per Square Foot: Average Warehouse/ Distribution Center: $4.60 Change from Q3 2010: –2.11%
www.colliers.com
Million Square Feet
Absorption: 28.6 Million Square Feet New Construction: 9.4 Million Square Feet
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U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET Q4 2009 – Q4 2010 30
12
20
11
10
10
0
9
-10
8
-20
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Absorption
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Completions
Q4 2010 Vacancy
7
Vacancy (%)
market indicators
Over the last three quarters, occupied space has increased by 42.7 million square feet, however, during the period Q2 2008 and Q1 2010 occupied space shrank by 209.9 million square feet.