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DISRUPTION 2020 – NUMBERS
DISRUPTION 2020
Numbers to Watch.
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At Colliers we understand the interconnectedness of data and the importance of considering macroeconomic trends and anecdotes in making real estate decisions. With that in mind, we’ve identified several numbers worth watching.
Aaron Jodka
Managing Director, Research & Client Services aaron.jodka@colliers.com
28,000
Layoffs at Disney’s theme parks.
-54%
Quarter 3 National transaction volume down 54% YOY.
10,000
Number of announced store closings per BDO, topping 2019’s record of 9,500. Coresight Research estimates this number could reach 25,000 by year-end.
800,000
Consensus estimated September job gains. ADP estimates 749,000 private jobs created in the month.
20%
Percentage growth - above the normal 22,500/week rate - of weekly applications for starting a new business.
0.677%
10-year Treasury Bond rate. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated the Fed plans to keep interest rates low for years to support economic activity.
27%
Average property write-down for assets handed to special servicers, per Wells Fargo.
10
Different markets posted negative absorption of over one million SF.
-33.5 Million
National office absorption, negative 33.5 million SF in Q3, has surpassed losses at the low point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of negative 25.9 million SF.
168.8 Million
Sublease space is at a record 168.8 million SF, 35.5% higher in the past six months.
2.9%
Average Class A asking rents in CBDs fell by 2.9% in Q3; suburban rents were flat.
Equal
Losses were almost equal in urban and suburban markets.
70 Basis Points
Vacancies increased 70 basis points this quarter, to 12.6%. They peaked at 16.3% in the GFC.
-89%
Hotels continue to be the worst-performing sector, down 89% in sales volumes yearover-year.
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