Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
September 2011
Quick Facts
People talk about the national housing market like it’s some static thing, like a toaster. The thing is, there is no national housing market. Just like there is no national weather forecast. That doesn't mean national averages don't have their place, but you don’t grab a raincoat and an umbrella in Miami based on the weather in Seattle. Like the weather, all real estate is local. As we embark on the forecast fourth and final quarter of 2011 2011, let’s let s take a look at our local forecast. New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 20.2 percent to 396. Pending Sales were down 6.1 percent to 199. Inventory levels shrank 20.3 percent to 3,004 units, a positive supply-side trend that should bring additional stability. Prices were fairly stable. The Median Sales Price decreased 0.2 percent to $218,000. Days on Market increased 13.2 percent to 137 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 27.1 percent to 12.4 months. A dash of uplifting economic news was overshadowed by debt clouds from the ongoing turmoil in Greece and the threat of bank contagion. Manufacturing activity, construction spending and overall job growth all picked up in September, temporarily calming fears of the dreaded double-dip storm. As for the lending climate, the Fed's recent "Operation Twist" helped push mortgage rates to record lows – under 4.0 percent for the first time ever. Despite the cheap money, "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!" should still be the battle cry.
- 1.4%
- 0.2%
- 20.3%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 9-2008
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
9-2009
9-2010
4,125
- 13.7%
212
199
- 6.1%
2,063
2,333
+ 13.1%
221
218
- 1.4%
1,922
2,033
+ 5.8%
121
137
+ 13.2%
130
140
+ 7.5%
$218,393
$218,000
- 0.2%
$232,045
$225,000
- 3.0%
$347,477
$322,931
- 7.1%
$349,953
$324,785
- 7.2%
93.4%
94.2%
+ 0.8%
94.0%
93.7%
- 0.3%
136
142
+ 4.8%
129
138
+ 7.4%
3,771
3,004
- 20.3%
--
--
--
17.0
12.4
- 27.1%
--
--
--
9-2011
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 9-2008
4,780
9-2011
Inventory of Homes for Sale 9-2008
- 20.2%
9-2011
Housing Affordability Index 9-2008
396
9-2011
Percent of List Price Received 9-2008
496
9-2011
Average Sales Price 9-2008
+/–
9-2011
Median Sales Price 9-2008
YTD 2010 YTD 2011
9-2011
Days on Market Until Sale 9-2008
+/–
9-2011
Closed Sales 9-2008
9-2011
9-2011
Pending Sales 9-2008
9-2010
9-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
September 493
Year To Date 496
4,780
4,738
4,125
396
2009
+0.6%
-20.2%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
451
400
-11.3%
November
409
337
-17.6%
December
350
306
-12.6%
January
454
426
-6.2%
February
515
499
-3.1%
March
675
575
-14.8%
April
619
553
-10.7%
May
482
451
-6.4%
June
516
414
-19.8%
July
502
372
-25.9%
Month
+0.9%
-13.7%
2010
2011
August
521
439
-15.7%
September
496
396
-20.2%
12-Month Avg
499
431
-13.7%
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
September
Year To Date 2,333
215
212
2,063
199 1,691
2009
-1.4%
-6.1%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
234
186
-20.5%
November
183
208
+13.7%
Month
+22.0%
+13.1%
2010
2011
December
184
174
-5.4%
January
185
240
+29.7%
February
199
263
+32.2%
March
263
299
+13.7%
April
280
259
-7.5%
May
232
259
+11.6%
June
227
280
+23.3%
July
256
285
+11.3%
August
209
249
+19.1%
September
212
199
-6.1%
12-Month Avg
222
242
+8.9%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 350
300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
September
Year To Date 221
218
193
1,922
2,033
1,479
2009
+14.5%
-1.4%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
231
161
-30.3%
November
214
182
-15.0%
December
218
220
+0.9%
January
172
183
+6.4%
February
156
176
+12.8%
March
213
226
+6.1%
April
252
270
+7.1%
May
212
261
+23.1%
June
261
215
-17.6%
July
220
222
+0.9%
August
215
262
+21.9%
September
221
218
-1.4%
12-Month Avg
215
216
+1.3%
Month
+30.0%
+5.8%
2010
2011
Historical Closed Sales Activity 300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
September
Year To Date 149
162
140 130
137 121
2009
-25.3%
+13.2%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
153
145
-5.0%
November
157
141
-10.2%
Month
-13.0%
+7.5%
2010
2011
December
138
136
-1.5%
January
131
133
+1.3%
February
145
156
+7.9%
March
140
143
+2.1%
April
128
152
+18.8%
May
113
133
+17.5%
June
141
158
+12.0%
July
126
140
+11.3%
August
126
110
-12.8%
September
121
137
+13.2%
12-Month Avg
144
150
+4.3%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
September
Year To Date $263,000
$239,000 $218,393
2009
$232,045
$218,000
-8.6%
-0.2%
2010
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
$290,000
$242,152
-16.5%
November
$262,750
$228,750
-12.9%
December
$279,000
$250,000
-10.4%
January
$231,000
$250,000
+8.2%
February
$215,000
$188,200
-12.5%
March
$265,000
$210,000
-20.8%
April
$224,000
$270,000
+20.5%
May
$237,090
$250,000
+5.4%
June
$240,000
$233,000
-2.9%
July
$275,145
$213,750
-22.3%
August
$214,000
$255,000
+19.2%
September
$218,393
$218,000
-0.2%
12-Month Med
$245,000
$232,000
-5.3%
Month
$225,000
-11.8%
-3.0%
2010
2011
2009
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
September $344,085
Year To Date $347,477 $322,931
$384,145 $349,953 $324,785
2009
+ 1.0%
- 7.1%
2010
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
$394,110
$323,375
-17.9%
November
$361,187
$327,176
-9.4%
December
$375,862
$310,895
-17.3%
January
$329,121
$303,936
-7.7%
February
$395,687
$291,285
-26.4%
March
$338,453
$328,279
-3.0%
April
$352,849
$346,612
-1.8%
May
$364,834
$339,727
-6.9%
June
$330,841
$353,623
+6.9%
July
$401,054
$298,544
-25.6%
August
$300,997
$320,250
+6.4%
September
$347,477
$322,931
-7.1%
12-Month Avg
$356,970
$323,696
-9.3%
Month
2009
- 8.9%
- 7.2%
2010
2011
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
September 93.3%
2009
Year To Date 93.4%
94.2%
+0.1%
+0.8%
2010
2011
94.0%
93.3%
2009
93.7%
+0.7%
-0.3%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
93.7%
94.2%
+0.5%
November
93.0%
92.4%
-0.7%
December
93.2%
93.2%
+0.0%
January
93.5%
92.8%
-0.8%
February
94.3%
93.8%
-0.5%
March
93.8%
93.2%
-0.7%
April
94.2%
93.8%
-0.5%
May
94.9%
93.5%
-1.4%
June
94.7%
94.3%
-0.5%
July
93.5%
93.6%
+0.1%
August
93.4%
94.2%
+0.8%
September
93.4%
94.2%
+0.8%
12-Month Avg
93.8%
93.6%
-0.2%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 96%
95%
94%
93%
92%
91%
90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
September
Year To Date 136
142
138 129
118 109
+14 7% +14.7% 2009
2010
+4 8% +4.8% 2011
+18 4% +18.4% 2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
100
125
+25.2%
November
111
132
+19.2%
December
101
120
+18.9%
January
122
117
-4.1%
February
130
149
+14.6%
March
108
136
+26.1%
April
125
111
-11.7%
May
119
120
+1.0%
June
121
129
+7.0%
July
109
139
+26.8%
August
138
122
-11.1%
Month
2010
+7 4% +7.4% 2011
September
136
142
+4.8%
12-Month Avg
118
129
+9.7%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
September 3,890
3,771 3,004
2009
-3.1%
-20.3%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
3,752
3,659
-2.5%
November
3,659
3,506
-4.2%
December
3,409
3,214
-5.7%
January
3,405
3,147
-7.6%
February
3,523
3,160
-10.3%
March
3,716
3,216
-13.5%
April
3,788
3,289
-13.2%
May
3,798
3,274
-13.8%
June
3,822
3,181
-16.8%
July
3,783
3,078
-18.6%
August
3,781
3,031
-19.8%
September
3,771
3,004
-20.3%
12-Month Avg
3,684
3,230
-12.2%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
September 23.6
17.0 12.4
2009
-28.1%
-27.1%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
October
22.2
16.5
-25.7%
November
20.5
16.1
-21.4%
December
18.5
14.6
-20.9%
January
17.8
14.4
-19.5%
February
18.1
14.1
-21.8%
March
18.6
14.0
-24.5%
April
18.3
14.2
-22.5%
May
17.7
14.2
-19.9%
June
17.7
13.7
-22.8%
July
17.4
13.0
-25.2%
August
16.9
12.7
-25.3%
September
17.0
12.4
-27.1%
12-Month Avg
18.4
14.1
-23.1%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12