Monthly Indicators September 2015 The third quarter of 2015 has ticked its last tock with the hands pointing firmly upon a reliable clock of a market. Although noon and 6:30 fluctuations are present even within the same states and cities, the overall tempo of real estate potential is experiencing a healthy number of good omens. The job market has shown continual improvement, jobless rates are down, real average hourly and weekly earnings have been up and there has been good news in new household formation. New Listings were up 4.9 percent to 496. Pending Sales increased 16.3 percent to 336. Inventory shrank 15.0 percent to 2,233 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 18.2 percent to $283,700. Days on Market decreased 17.1 percent to 92 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 26.1 percent to 6.5 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. With positive economic news coming from many angles, there are no imminent factors to prepare for beyond the typical seasonal drop-off. From the mouths of market-analyzing pundits, we are in the midst of one of the healthiest housing markets in the past 15 years. The one thing we were anticipating in September, an increase in interest rates, did not happen. It most likely will before year's end. Until then, get out and enjoy the season.
Quick Facts + 26.4%
+ 18.2%
- 15.0%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
09-2014
09-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
473
496
+ 4.9%
4,428
4,589
+ 3.6%
Pending Sales
289
336
+ 16.3%
2,784
3,364
+ 20.8%
Closed Sales
273
345
+ 26.4%
2,676
3,100
+ 15.8%
Days on Market
111
92
- 17.1%
110
109
- 0.9%
Median Sales Price
$240,000
$283,700
+ 18.2%
$250,840
$275,000
+ 9.6%
Average Sales Price
$364,815
$347,878
- 4.6%
$340,362
$352,120
+ 3.5%
Pct. of List Price Received
95.2%
95.9%
+ 0.7%
95.3%
95.6%
+ 0.3%
Housing Affordability Index
100
87
- 13.0%
95
90
- 5.3%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,627
2,233
- 15.0%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.8
6.5
- 26.1%
--
--
--
09-2013
09-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
09-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
September
New Listings
Year to Date
435
4,329
496
473
4,428
4,589
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 2.2%
+ 8.7%
+ 4.9%
+ 2.1%
+ 2.3%
+ 3.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
555
622
-10.8%
May 2015
505
441
+14.5%
June 2015
474
458
+3.5%
July 2015
466
437
+6.6%
August 2015
471
407
+15.7%
September 2015
496
473
+4.9%
12-Month Avg
473
465
+1.6%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
September
Year to Date
Pending Sales
336 298
3,364 2,963
289
2,784
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 21.1%
- 3.0%
+ 16.3%
+ 12.8%
- 6.0%
+ 20.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-10.7%
October 2014
285
319
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
243
202
+20.3%
January 2015
314
251
+25.1%
February 2015
310
293
+5.8%
March 2015
376
344
+9.3%
April 2015
367
347
+5.8%
May 2015
378
333
+13.5%
June 2015
466
337
+38.3%
July 2015
453
317
+42.9%
August 2015
364
273
+33.3%
September 2015
336
289
+16.3%
12-Month Avg
346
298
+16.1%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
September
Closed Sales
Year to Date 345
305
3,100 2,843
2,676
273
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 18.7%
- 10.5%
+ 26.4%
+ 12.7%
- 5.9%
+ 15.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
339
273
+24.2%
April 2015
334
323
+3.4%
May 2015
388
333
+16.5%
June 2015
421
354
+18.9%
July 2015
426
345
+23.5%
August 2015
375
340
+10.3%
September 2015
345
273
+26.4%
12-Month Avg
333
299
+11.5%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
September
Days on Market
Year to Date 111
105
119 92
110
109
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 5.7%
- 17.1%
- 7.0%
- 7.6%
- 0.9%
Percent Change
0.0%
October 2014
115
115
November 2014
120
122
-1.6%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
112
106
+5.7%
June 2015
110
107
+2.8%
July 2015
102
103
-1.0%
August 2015
114
126
-9.5%
92
111
-17.1%
113
110
+2.7%
September 2015
- 14.6%
Prior Year
12-Month Avg*
* Average Days on Market of all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
September
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $283,700
$233,765
$275,000 $251,501
$240,000
$250,840
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 1.6%
+ 2.7%
+ 18.2%
+ 13.3%
- 0.3%
+ 9.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+7.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$277,450
$273,465
+1.5%
May 2015
$278,415
$251,540
+10.7%
June 2015
$289,950
$283,245
+2.4%
July 2015
$275,000
$245,000
+12.2%
August 2015
$285,000
$255,458
+11.6%
September 2015
$283,700
$240,000
+18.2%
12-Month Med*
$275,000
$251,285
+9.4%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
September
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $364,815
$331,741
$347,878
$336,072
$340,362
$352,120
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 6.8%
+ 10.0%
- 4.6%
+ 7.0%
+ 1.3%
+ 3.5%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
+5.4%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,394
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,738
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$348,378
$343,270
+1.5%
April 2015
$379,902
$340,691
+11.5%
May 2015
$363,302
$324,120
+12.1%
June 2015
$343,708
$381,652
-9.9%
July 2015
$342,044
$324,040
+5.6%
August 2015
$362,807
$351,048
+3.3%
September 2015
$347,878
$364,815
-4.6%
12-Month Avg*
$351,390
$338,268
+3.9%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
September
95.5%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.9%
95.2%
95.5%
95.3%
95.6%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 1.6%
- 0.3%
+ 0.7%
+ 1.2%
- 0.2%
+ 0.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.6%
95.5%
+0.1%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.1%
95.9%
-0.8%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
June 2015
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
July 2015
96.1%
95.6%
+0.5%
August 2015
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
September 2015
95.9%
95.2%
+0.7%
12-Month Avg*
95.6%
95.3%
+0.3%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
September
Affordability Index
Year to Date 94
101
95
90
100 87
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 10.6%
- 1.0%
- 13.0%
- 19.7%
+ 1.1%
- 5.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
91
96
-5.2%
December 2014
89
95
-6.3%
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
90
86
+4.7%
May 2015
90
96
-6.3%
June 2015
85
85
0.0%
July 2015
88
98
-10.2%
August 2015
86
95
-9.5%
September 2015
87
100
-13.0%
12-Month Avg
91
95
-3.7%
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
September 2,627
2,425
2,233
- 15.0%
- 11.5% 2013
2014
2015
- 11.5%
+ 8.3%
- 15.0%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
2,638
2,438
+8.2%
November 2014
2,551
2,386
+6.9%
December 2014
2,345
2,284
+2.7%
January 2015
2,306
2,369
-2.7%
February 2015
2,350
2,438
-3.6%
March 2015
2,479
2,587
-4.2%
April 2015
2,530
2,724
-7.1%
May 2015
2,521
2,685
-6.1%
June 2015
2,377
2,642
-10.0%
July 2015
2,251
2,616
-14.0%
August 2015
2,215
2,600
-14.8%
September 2015
2,233
2,627
-15.0%
12-Month Avg*
2,400
2,614
-8.2%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
September 8.8 7.8 6.5
2013
2014
2015
- 21.2%
+ 12.8%
- 26.1%
Prior Year
Percent Change
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
8.0
-3.8%
March 2015
8.1
8.4
-3.6%
April 2015
8.2
8.8
-6.8%
May 2015
8.1
8.8
-8.0%
June 2015
7.4
8.6
-14.0%
July 2015
6.7
8.7
-23.0%
August 2015
6.5
8.7
-25.3%
September 2015
6.5
8.8
-26.1%
12-Month Avg*
7.7
8.3
-7.2%
* Months Supply for all properties from October 2014 through September 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of October 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12