Monthly Indicators August 2015
Quick Facts
For many markets across the nation, home prices were up during summer in yearover-year comparisons. With the economy on full mend, the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, has predicted a fine-tuning of monetary policy by the end of the year. In tandem with the improved economy, the unemployment rate for July 2015 remained at 5.3 percent for the second month in a row. It is widely believed that interest rates will go up before the year is over, which is something that generally does not happen without careful consideration for the impact such a move will have on residential real estate. New Listings were up 14.7 percent to 467. Pending Sales increased 38.1 percent to 377. Inventory shrank 16.5 percent to 2,173 units. Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 12.5 percent to $287,500. Days on Market decreased 7.9 percent to 116 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 27.6 percent to 6.3 months, indicating that demand increased relative to supply. According to statistics jointly released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, privately-owned housing starts rose 0.2 percent when comparing July 2015 to the prior month and 10.1 percent when compared to July 2014. These numbers are at the highest levels the market has seen since October 2007. This bodes well for the eventual landing of a flock of potential buyers currently holding in a rental pattern or the wakening of those resting in extended parental basement hibernation. As ideal summer weather diverges toward autumn, we will begin to see some seasonal relaxation, but the market should still look positive when compared to last year.
+ 7.9%
+ 12.5%
- 16.5%
One-Year Change in Closed Sales
One-Year Change in Median Sales Price
One-Year Change in Months Supply
A research tool provided by the Hilton Head Association of REALTORS速 Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright 息 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Historical Sparkbars
Key Metrics
08-2014
08-2015
Percent Change
New Listings
407
467
+ 14.7%
3,955
4,088
+ 3.4%
Pending Sales
273
377
+ 38.1%
2,495
3,055
+ 22.4%
Closed Sales
340
367
+ 7.9%
2,403
2,747
+ 14.3%
Days on Market
126
116
- 7.9%
110
112
+ 1.8%
Median Sales Price
$255,458
$287,500
+ 12.5%
$253,000
$275,000
+ 8.7%
Average Sales Price
$351,048
$366,706
+ 4.5%
$337,583
$353,141
+ 4.6%
Pct. of List Price Received
94.9%
95.5%
+ 0.6%
95.3%
95.6%
+ 0.3%
Housing Affordability Index
95
85
- 10.5%
95
89
- 6.3%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
2,601
2,173
- 16.5%
--
--
--
Months Supply of Inventory
8.7
6.3
- 27.6%
--
--
--
08-2013
08-2014
YTD 2014 YTD 2015
Percent Change
08-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
August
New Listings
Year to Date 467
454
3,894
407
3,955
4,088
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.7%
- 10.4%
+ 14.7%
+ 2.6%
+ 1.6%
+ 3.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+8.7%
September 2014
473
435
October 2014
467
506
-7.7%
November 2014
323
375
-13.9%
December 2014
292
274
+6.6%
January 2015
469
494
-5.1%
February 2015
480
481
-0.2%
March 2015
673
615
+9.4%
April 2015
555
622
-10.8%
May 2015
505
441
+14.5%
June 2015
474
458
+3.5%
July 2015
465
437
+6.4%
August 2015
467
407
+14.7%
12-Month Avg
470
462
+1.8%
Historical New Listings by Month 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
August
Year to Date
Pending Sales
377 3,055 2,665
302 273
2,495
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 0.7%
- 9.6%
+ 38.1%
+ 12.0%
- 6.4%
+ 22.4%
Prior Year
Percent Change
September 2014
289
298
-3.0%
October 2014
285
319
-10.7%
November 2014
257
268
-4.1%
December 2014
243
202
+20.3%
January 2015
314
251
+25.1%
February 2015
310
293
+5.8%
March 2015
376
344
+9.3%
April 2015
368
347
+6.1%
May 2015
379
333
+13.8%
June 2015
470
337
+39.5%
July 2015
461
317
+45.4%
August 2015
377
273
+38.1%
12-Month Avg
344
299
+15.3%
Historical Pending Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
August
Closed Sales
Year to Date 2,747
385
367
340
2,538
2,403
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 24.2%
- 11.7%
+ 7.9%
+ 12.0%
- 5.3%
+ 14.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-10.5%
September 2014
273
305
October 2014
329
327
+0.6%
November 2014
254
286
-11.2%
December 2014
311
293
+6.1%
January 2015
227
243
-6.6%
February 2015
245
192
+27.6%
March 2015
339
273
+24.2%
April 2015
334
323
+3.4%
May 2015
388
333
+16.5%
June 2015
421
354
+18.9%
July 2015
426
345
+23.5%
August 2015
367
340
+7.9%
12-Month Avg
326
301
+8.3%
Historical Closed Sales by Month 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
August
Days on Market
Year to Date 126
116
111
121
112
110
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 0.9%
+ 13.5%
- 7.9%
- 6.2%
- 9.1%
+ 1.8%
Prior Year
Percent Change
+5.7%
September 2014
111
105
October 2014
115
115
0.0%
November 2014
120
122
-1.6%
December 2014
135
98
+37.8%
January 2015
115
105
+9.5%
February 2015
117
110
+6.4%
March 2015
114
118
-3.4%
April 2015
114
103
+10.7%
May 2015
112
106
+5.7%
June 2015
110
107
+2.8%
July 2015
102
103
-1.0%
August 2015
116
126
-7.9%
12-Month Avg*
114
110
+3.6%
* Average Days on Market of all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 6
Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August
Median Sales Price
Year to Date $275,000 $252,583
$287,500 $260,050
$253,000
$255,458
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 25.6%
- 1.8%
+ 12.5%
+ 14.8%
+ 0.2%
+ 8.7%
Prior Year
Percent Change
September 2014
$240,000
$233,765
+2.7%
October 2014
$280,000
$260,000
+7.7%
November 2014
$268,950
$258,500
+4.0%
December 2014
$275,000
$250,000
+10.0%
January 2015
$236,000
$218,000
+8.3%
February 2015
$264,500
$247,945
+6.7%
March 2015
$250,000
$255,000
-2.0%
April 2015
$277,450
$273,465
+1.5%
May 2015
$278,415
$251,540
+10.7%
June 2015
$289,950
$283,245
+2.4%
July 2015
$275,000
$245,000
+12.2%
August 2015
$287,500
$255,458
+12.5%
12-Month Med*
$272,500
$251,233
+8.5%
* Median Sales Price of all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the median of the individual figures above.
Historical Median Sales Price by Month $500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August $345,493
Avg. Sales Price
Year to Date $351,048
$366,706 $336,593
$337,583
$353,141
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 31.1%
+ 1.6%
+ 4.5%
+ 8.8%
+ 0.3%
+ 4.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
September 2014
$364,815
$331,741
+10.0%
October 2014
$339,062
$329,183
+3.0%
November 2014
$359,992
$341,500
+5.4%
December 2014
$355,477
$340,932
+4.3%
January 2015
$334,394
$286,670
+16.6%
February 2015
$339,738
$331,298
+2.5%
March 2015
$348,378
$343,270
+1.5%
April 2015
$379,902
$340,691
+11.5%
May 2015
$363,302
$324,120
+12.1%
June 2015
$343,708
$381,652
-9.9%
July 2015
$342,042
$324,040
+5.6%
August 2015
$366,706
$351,048
+4.5%
12-Month Avg*
$353,126
$335,512
+5.2%
* Avg. Sales Price of all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Average Sales Price by Month $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
August
95.5%
Pct. of List Price Received
Year to Date
95.5%
94.9%
95.5%
95.3%
95.6%
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
+ 0.7%
- 0.6%
+ 0.6%
+ 1.1%
- 0.2%
+ 0.3%
Prior Year
Percent Change
-0.3%
September 2014
95.2%
95.5%
October 2014
95.6%
95.7%
-0.1%
November 2014
95.4%
94.7%
+0.7%
December 2014
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
January 2015
95.3%
94.9%
+0.4%
February 2015
95.6%
95.5%
+0.1%
March 2015
95.2%
95.1%
+0.1%
April 2015
95.1%
95.9%
-0.8%
May 2015
95.8%
94.9%
+0.9%
June 2015
95.9%
95.9%
0.0%
July 2015
96.1%
95.6%
+0.5%
August 2015
95.5%
94.9%
+0.6%
12-Month Avg*
95.5%
95.3%
+0.2%
* Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
August
Affordability Index
Year to Date
Prior Year
Percent Change
100
101
-1.0%
October 2014
87
90
-3.3%
November 2014
91
96
-5.2%
December 2014
-6.3%
September 2014
95
89
92
85
95
89
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
- 27.6%
+ 6.7%
- 10.5%
- 20.7%
+ 3.3%
- 6.3%
89
95
January 2015
106
106
0.0%
February 2015
95
95
0.0%
March 2015
99
93
+6.5%
April 2015
90
86
+4.7%
May 2015
90
96
-6.3%
June 2015
85
85
0.0%
July 2015
88
98
-10.2%
August 2015
85
95
-10.5%
12-Month Avg
92
95
-2.7%
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month 140
120
100
80
60
40 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
August 2,601
2,470
2,173
- 16.5%
- 9.3% 2013
2014
2015
- 9.3%
+ 5.3%
- 16.5%
Prior Year
Percent Change
September 2014
2,628
2,425
+8.4%
October 2014
2,639
2,438
+8.2%
November 2014
2,552
2,386
+7.0%
December 2014
2,346
2,284
+2.7%
January 2015
2,307
2,369
-2.6%
February 2015
2,351
2,438
-3.6%
March 2015
2,480
2,587
-4.1%
April 2015
2,530
2,724
-7.1%
May 2015
2,520
2,686
-6.2%
June 2015
2,366
2,643
-10.5%
July 2015
2,229
2,617
-14.8%
August 2015
2,173
2,601
-16.5%
12-Month Avg*
2,427
2,609
-7.0%
* Homes for Sale for all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
August 8.7
8.0
6.3
2013
2014
2015
- 20.0%
+ 8.7%
- 27.6%
Prior Year
Percent Change
September 2014
8.8
7.8
+12.8%
October 2014
8.9
7.8
+14.1%
November 2014
8.7
7.6
+14.5%
December 2014
7.9
7.3
+8.2%
January 2015
7.6
7.7
-1.3%
February 2015
7.7
8.0
-3.8%
March 2015
8.1
8.4
-3.6%
April 2015
8.2
8.8
-6.8%
May 2015
8.1
8.8
-8.0%
June 2015
7.3
8.6
-15.1%
July 2015
6.6
8.7
-24.1%
August 2015
6.3
8.7
-27.6%
12-Month Avg*
7.9
8.2
-3.7%
* Months Supply for all properties from September 2014 through August 2015. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month 30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 01-2005
01-2006
01-2007
01-2008
01-2009
01-2010
01-2011
01-2012
01-2013
01-2014
01-2015
Current as of September 10, 2015. Data is Copyright © 2014 All Rights Reserved. MLS of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K. | 12