Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
October 2011
Quick Facts
There's the numbers, then there’s the story behind them. For months, declining inventory has been the national tale to tell. This suggests a changing narrative with different voices. A buyer might tell you that record low mortgage rates and affordable prices made homeownership more attractive than renting. A seller may say that less competition allowed them to receive more of their asking price The moral of the story? Real estate is local both in terms of geography price. and personal circumstance. New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 10.3 percent to 359. Pending Sales were up 34.4 percent to 250. Inventory levels shrank 20.2 percent to 2,925 units, a trend that could indicate a changing landscape. Prices were fairly stable. The Median Sales Price decreased 1.2 percent to $239,133. Days on Market decreased 4.4 percent to 138 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 26.6 percent to 12.1 months. Recent reports from the broader economy have dispelled the story of a doubledip recession. An early reading of gross domestic product (GDP) showed 2.5 percent growth. Meanwhile, national job growth, a major driver of housing demand and price support, has recently strengthened. An increasingly impatient White House has rolled out phase two of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) for Fannie- and Freddie-backed mortgages. This should help a number of consumers as they write the next chapter.
+ 36.6%
- 1.2%
- 20.2%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 10-2008
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
10-2009
10-2010
4,517
- 12.9%
186
250
+ 34.4%
2,247
2,576
+ 14.6%
161
220
+ 36.6%
2,083
2,253
+ 8.2%
145
138
- 4.4%
131
139
+ 6.5%
$242,152
$239,133
- 1.2%
$233,916
$227,750
- 2.6%
$323,375
$342,260
+ 5.8%
$347,905
$326,495
- 6.2%
94.2%
94.0%
- 0.2%
94.0%
93.7%
- 0.3%
125
130
+ 4.3%
129
136
+ 5.6%
3,667
2,925
- 20.2%
--
--
--
16.5
12.1
- 26.6%
--
--
--
10-2011
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 10-2008
5,184
10-2011
Inventory of Homes for Sale 10-2008
- 10.3%
10-2011
Housing Affordability Index 10-2008
359
10-2011
Percent of List Price Received 10-2008
400
10-2011
Average Sales Price 10-2008
+/–
10-2011
Median Sales Price 10-2008
YTD 2010 YTD 2011
10-2011
Days on Market Until Sale 10-2008
+/–
10-2011
Closed Sales 10-2008
10-2011
10-2011
Pending Sales 10-2008
10-2010
10-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
October
Year To Date
451 5,189
5,184
400 4,517
359
2009
-11.3%
-10.3%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
409
337
-17.6%
December
350
306
-12.6%
January
454
427
-5.9%
February
515
499
-3.1%
Month
-0.1%
-12.9%
2010
2011
March
676
575
-14.9%
April
621
555
-10.6%
May
482
452
-6.2%
June
516
420
-18.6%
July
502
376
-25.1%
August
522
445
-14.8%
September
496
409
-17.5%
October
400
359
-10.3%
12-Month Avg
495
430
-13.2%
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
October
Year To Date 2,576
250 234
2,247 1,924
186
2009
-20.5%
+34.4%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
183
208
+13.7%
December
184
173
-6.0%
January
185
240
+29.7%
February
199
263
+32.2%
March
263
297
+12.9%
April
279
258
-7.5%
May
232
258
+11.2%
June
226
277
+22.6%
July
256
284
+10.9%
August
209
242
+15.8%
Month
+16.8%
+14.6%
2010
2011
September
212
207
-2.4%
October
186
250
+34.4%
12-Month Avg
218
246
+13.1%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 350
300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
October
Year To Date
231
2,253
220 2,083 1,710
161
2009
-30.3%
+36.6%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
214
182
-15.0%
December
218
220
+0.9%
January
172
183
+6.4%
February
156
176
+12.8%
March
213
226
+6.1%
April
252
270
+7.1%
May
212
261
+23.1%
Month
+21.8%
+8.2%
2010
2011
June
261
215
-17.6%
July
220
222
+0.9%
August
215
262
+21.9%
September
221
218
-1.4%
October
161
220
+36.6%
12-Month Avg
210
221
+6.8%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
October
Year To Date 150
153
2009
139 145
131
138
-5.0%
-4.4%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
157
141
-10.2%
December
138
136
-1.5%
January
131
133
+1.3%
February
145
156
+7.9%
March
140
143
+2.1%
April
128
152
+18.8%
May
113
133
+17.5%
June
141
158
+12.0%
July
126
140
+11.3%
August
126
110
-12.8%
September
121
137
+13.2%
October
145
138
-4.4%
12-Month Avg
142
150
+5.5%
Month
-12.4%
+6.5%
2010
2011
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October
Year To Date $266,000
$290,000
$233,916 $242,152
2009
$227,750
$239,133
-16.5%
-1.2%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
$262,750
$228,750
-12.9%
December
$279,000
$250,000
-10.4%
January
$231,000
$250,000
+8.2%
February
$215,000
$188,200
-12.5%
March
$265,000
$210,000
-20.8%
April
$224,000
$270,000
+20.5%
May
$237,090
$250,000
+5.4%
June
$240,000
$233,000
-2.9%
July
$275,145
$213,750
-22.3%
August
$214,000
$255,000
+19.2%
September
$218,393
$218,000
-0.2%
October
$242,152
$239,133
-1.2%
12-Month Med
$240,000
$230,285
-4.0%
Month
-12.1%
-2.6%
2010
2011
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October
Year To Date
$394,110
$385,470 $323,375
2009
$347,905
$342,260
- 17.9%
+ 5.8%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
$361,187
$327,176
-9.4%
December
$375,862
$310,895
-17.3%
January
$329,121
$303,936
-7.7%
February
$395,687
$291,285
-26.4%
March
$338,453
$328,279
-3.0%
April
$352,849
$346,612
-1.8%
May
$364,834
$339,727
-6.9%
June
$330,841
$353,623
+6.9%
July
$401,054
$298,544
-25.6%
August
$300,997
$320,250
+6.4%
September
$347,477
$322,931
-7.1%
October
$323,375
$342,260
+5.8%
12-Month Avg
$351,468
$325,257
-7.5%
Month
$326,495
- 9.7%
- 6.2%
2010
2011
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
October 93.7%
2009
Year To Date 94.2%
94.0%
+0.5%
-0.2%
2010
2011
94.0%
93.3%
2009
93.7%
+0.7%
-0.3%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
93.0%
92.4%
-0.7%
December
93.2%
93.2%
+0.0%
January
93.5%
92.8%
-0.8%
February
94.3%
93.8%
-0.5%
March
93.8%
93.2%
-0.7%
April
94.2%
93.8%
-0.5%
May
94.9%
93.5%
-1.4%
June
94.7%
94.3%
-0.5%
July
93.5%
93.6%
+0.1%
August
93.4%
94.2%
+0.8%
September
93.4%
94.2%
+0.8%
October
94.2%
94.0%
-0.2%
12-Month Avg
93.8%
93.6%
-0.3%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 96%
95%
94%
93%
92%
91%
90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
October
Year To Date 125
130 129
136
100 108
+25 2% +25.2% 2009
2010
+4 3% +4.3% 2011
+19 4% +19.4% 2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
111
132
+19.2%
December
101
120
+18.9%
January
122
117
-4.1%
February
130
149
+14.6%
March
108
136
+26.1%
April
125
111
-11.7%
Month
2010
+5 6% +5.6% 2011
May
119
120
+1.0%
June
121
129
+7.0%
July
109
139
+26.8%
August
138
122
-11.1%
September
136
142
+4.8%
October
125
130
+4.3%
12-Month Avg
120
129
+8.0%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
October 3,753
3,667 2,925
2009
-2.3%
-20.2%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
3,660
3,514
-4.0%
December
3,410
3,223
-5.5%
January
3,406
3,157
-7.3%
February
3,524
3,170
-10.0%
March
3,718
3,229
-13.2%
April
3,793
3,307
-12.8%
May
3,803
3,295
-13.4%
June
3,828
3,213
-16.1%
July
3,789
3,115
-17.8%
August
3,788
3,082
-18.6%
September
3,779
3,061
-19.0%
October
3,667
2,925
-20.2%
12-Month Avg
3,680
3,191
-13.2%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
October 22.2 16.5 12.1
2009
-25.5%
-26.6%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
20.5
16.1
-21.2%
December
18.5
14.7
-20.7%
January
17.8
14.4
-19.2%
February
18.1
14.2
-21.5%
March
18.6
14.1
-24.2%
April
18.3
14.3
-22.1%
May
17.8
14.3
-19.4%
June
17.8
13.8
-22.1%
July
17.4
13.2
-24.3%
August
17.0
12.9
-24.0%
September
17.0
12.7
-25.5%
October
16.5
12.1
-26.6%
12-Month Avg
17.9
13.9
-22.5%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12