Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
July 2013
Quick Facts
It won't be long before the housing recovery is simply referred to as housing. Institutional and cash buyers have effectively priced themselves out of the market. During the downturn, much inventory was purchased by these groups. Now that prices are rising, there's less incentive for these kinds of buyers, yet affordability for consumers remains attractive. New Listings in the Hilton Head region increased 3.0 percent to 412. Pending Sales were up 39.9 percent to 382. Inventory levels shrank 15.7 percent to 2,434 units. Prices got a lift. The Median Sales Price increased 35.9 percent to $299,000. Days on Market was up 0.6 percent to 125 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 29.1 percent to 7.7 months. With mortgage rates slightly up but relatively low by historic standards, the Fed has indicated no change in monetary policy based on a moderately-paced economic expansion. Although the unemployment rate remains a factor to watch, the housing recovery continues to plug along, helping the greater economy with flourishing activity in sales and prices. Housing has made a positive contribution to real GDP growth for 11 consecutive quarters.
+ 19.7%
+ 35.9%
- 15.7%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 7-2010
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
7-2011
7-2012
3,331
- 0.1%
273
382
+ 39.9%
2,071
2,427
+ 17.2%
279
334
+ 19.7%
1,912
2,081
+ 8.8%
124
125
+ 0.6%
132
122
- 7.6%
$220,000
$299,000
+ 35.9%
$225,000
$255,000
+ 13.3%
$286,352
$363,957
+ 27.1%
$316,067
$339,786
+ 7.5%
94.8%
95.1%
+ 0.4%
94.4%
95.4%
+ 1.1%
154
110
- 28.3%
151
127
- 16.0%
2,888
2,434
- 15.7%
--
--
--
10.9
7.7
- 29.1%
--
--
--
7-2013
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 7-2010
3,336
7-2013
Inventory of Homes for Sale 7-2010
+ 3.0%
7-2013
Housing Affordability Index 7-2010
412
7-2013
Percent of List Price Received 7-2010
400
7-2013
Average Sales Price 7-2010
+/–
7-2013
Median Sales Price 7-2010
YTD 2012 YTD 2013
7-2013
Days on Market Until Sale 7-2010
+/–
7-2013
Closed Sales 7-2010
7-2013
7-2013
Pending Sales 7-2010
7-2012
7-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
July
Year To Date 385
2011
400
412 3,357
+3.9%
+3.0%
2012
2013
2011
3,336
3,331
-0.6%
-0.1%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
459
453
-1.3%
September
424
443
+4.5%
October
399
428
+7.3%
November
372
364
-2.2%
December
294
283
-3.7%
January
494
496
+0.4%
February
475
514
+8.2%
March
555
552
-0.5%
April
548
509
-7.1%
May
448
437
-2.5%
June
416
411
-1.2%
July
400
412
+3.0%
12-Month Avg
440
442
+0.3%
Historical New Listing Activity 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
July
Year To Date 382 2,427 2,071 274
2011
273
1,838
-0.4%
+39.9%
2012
2013
2011
+12.7%
+17.2%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
228
309
+35.5%
September
194
246
+26.8%
October
238
308
+29.4%
November
224
277
+23.7%
December
223
213
-4.5%
January
239
300
+25.5%
February
266
330
+24.1%
March
323
325
+0.6%
April
352
352
0.0%
May
315
363
+15.2%
June
303
375
+23.8%
July
273
382
+39.9%
12-Month Avg
265
315
+18.9%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
July
Year To Date 334
2,081 1,912
279 1,553 222
2011
+25.7%
+19.7%
2012
2013
2011
+23.1%
+8.8%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
262
304
+16.0%
September
218
252
+15.6%
October
220
283
+28.6%
November
212
307
+44.8%
December
253
247
-2.4%
January
220
217
-1.4%
February
181
229
+26.5%
March
280
306
+9.3%
April
274
303
+10.6%
May
332
351
+5.7%
June
346
341
-1.4%
July
279
334
+19.7%
12-Month Avg
256
290
+14.3%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
July 140 124
2011
Year To Date
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
145
August
110
110
+0.4%
September
137
121
-11.3%
132
125
-11.5%
+0.6%
2012
2013
122
2011
-8.7%
-7.6%
2012
2013
October
138
130
-6.2%
November
132
122
-7.7%
December
141
115
-18.6%
January
134
127
-5.5%
February
130
124
-4.8%
March
136
121
-10.5%
April
152
121
-20.0%
May
129
122
-5.4%
June
125
118
-5.1%
July
124
125
+0.6%
12-Month Avg
132
121
-8.1%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 180
160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $299,000
$255,000 $225,000
$213,750
2011
$225,000
$220,000
+2.9%
+35.9%
2012
2013
2011
0.0%
+13.3%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$255,000
$212,500
-16.7%
September
$218,000
$230,000
+5.5%
October
$239,133
$235,000
-1.7%
November
$230,000
$233,000
+1.3%
December
$229,700
$238,070
+3.6%
January
$238,750
$245,745
+2.9%
February
$238,000
$228,000
-4.2%
March
$191,750
$225,000
+17.3%
April
$210,000
$263,000
+25.2%
May
$233,000
$275,625
+18.3%
June
$230,000
$252,500
+9.8%
July
$220,000
$299,000
+35.9%
12-Month Med
$227,815
$244,000
+7.1%
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
July
Year To Date $363,957 $325,816
$298,544
2011
$339,786 $316,067
$286,352
- 4.1%
+ 27.1%
2012
2013
2011
- 3.0%
+ 7.5%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
$320,250
$266,470
-16.8%
September
$322,931
$358,255
+10.9%
October
$342,260
$347,171
+1.4%
November
$319,573
$296,461
-7.2%
December
$314,152
$324,491
+3.3%
January
$327,373
$322,692
-1.4%
February
$300,293
$294,120
-2.1%
March
$331,155
$304,274
-8.1%
April
$345,660
$359,394
+4.0%
May
$311,333
$373,557
+20.0%
June
$310,184
$337,647
+8.9%
July
$286,352
$363,957
+27.1%
12-Month Avg
$318,857
$330,377
+3.6%
Historical Average Sales Price $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
July
Year To Date
93.6%
94.8%
95.1% 93.6%
2011
+1.3%
+0.4%
2012
2013
2011
94.4%
95.4%
+0.9%
+1.1%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
94.2%
94.8%
+0.6%
September
94.2%
94.0%
-0.2%
October
94.0%
95.0%
+1.1%
November
93.5%
95.5%
+2.1%
December
94.1%
95.2%
+1.2%
January
93.8%
95.1%
+1.3%
February
93.9%
95.3%
+1.5%
March
94.1%
96.1%
+2.1%
April
93.7%
95.1%
+1.6%
May
94.9%
95.8%
+1.0%
June
94.9%
95.2%
+0.3%
July
94.8%
95.1%
+0.4%
12-Month Avg
94.2%
95.2%
+1.0%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
July
Year To Date 151 154
133
127
139 110
2011
+10 8% +10.8%
28 3% -28.3%
2012
2013
2011
+13 5% +13.5%
16 0% -16.0%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
122
158
+28.6%
September
142
150
+5.6%
October
130
147
+12.6%
November
136
148
+9.2%
December
136
147
+8.0%
January
137
144
+4.9%
February
139
150
+8.0%
March
165
151
-8.2%
April
155
135
-13.2%
May
144
125
-13.3%
June
146
127
-13.2%
July
154
110
-28.3%
12-Month Avg
142
141
+0.1%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
July 3,281 2,888 2,434
2011
-12.0%
-15.7%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
3,284
2,843
-13.4%
September
3,296
2,856
-13.3%
October
3,216
2,807
-12.7%
November
3,150
2,736
-13.1%
December
2,970
2,573
-13.4%
January
2,986
2,594
-13.1%
February
3,026
2,647
-12.5%
March
3,062
2,733
-10.7%
April
3,096
2,756
-11.0%
May
3,036
2,677
-11.8%
June
2,945
2,559
-13.1%
July
2,888
2,434
-15.7%
12-Month Avg
3,080
2,685
-12.8%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
July 14.0 10.9 7.7
2011
-22.0%
-29.1%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
August
13.9
10.5
-24.6%
September
14.0
10.4
-26.2%
October
13.4
10.0
-25.8%
November
13.1
9.6
-26.8%
December
12.1
9.0
-25.5%
January
12.2
8.9
-26.6%
February
12.3
9.0
-27.3%
March
12.3
9.2
-25.1%
April
12.1
9.3
-22.8%
May
11.6
8.9
-23.0%
June
11.1
8.4
-24.8%
July
10.9
7.7
-29.1%
12-Month Avg
12.4
9.2
-25.6%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12