Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
October 2013
Quick Facts
Now that the baton is in grasp of the final quarter of our annual relay, it's a good time to look back and reflect. This year has been spectacular for residential real estate. Robust gains in sales and prices were felt in many markets. More homes sold in less time for closer to asking price. While consumers have felt empowered by low prices and interest rates, sellers are starting to regain their footing. Seller confidence is crucial to refilled inventory bins – which are still relatively sparse. sparse New Listings in the Hilton Head region increased 3.0 percent to 442. Pending Sales were down 1.0 percent to 304. Inventory levels shrank 14.8 percent to 2,407 units. Prices got a lift. The Median Sales Price increased 6.3 percent to $249,833. Days on Market was down 9.7 percent to 117 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 24.5 percent to 7.6 months. The economy continues to snail forward. The government shutdown had a modest impact on borrowing – mostly centered on USDA and VA borrowers. Consumer confidence is central to ongoing recovery, and confidence was hindered by the shutdown. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity and impacts the likelihood for big-ticket purchases like homes and cars. Future shutdowns are unwelcome.
+ 11.7%
+ 6.3%
- 14.8%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 10-2010
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
10-2011
10-2012
4,692
+ 0.5%
307
304
- 1.0%
2,928
3,318
+ 13.3%
283
316
+ 11.7%
2,751
3,066
+ 11.5%
130
117
- 9.7%
129
119
- 7.6%
$235,000
$249,833
+ 6.3%
$225,000
$254,608
+ 13.2%
$347,171
$329,877
- 5.0%
$317,595
$339,648
+ 6.9%
95.0%
95.6%
+ 0.6%
94.4%
95.4%
+ 1.1%
147
129
- 11.8%
152
127
- 16.4%
2,826
2,407
- 14.8%
--
--
--
10.0
7.6
- 24.5%
--
--
--
10-2013
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 10-2010
4,668
10-2013
Inventory of Homes for Sale 10-2010
+ 3.0%
10-2013
Housing Affordability Index 10-2010
442
10-2013
Percent of List Price Received 10-2010
429
10-2013
Average Sales Price 10-2010
+/–
10-2013
Median Sales Price 10-2010
YTD 2012 YTD 2013
10-2013
Days on Market Until Sale 10-2010
+/–
10-2013
Closed Sales 10-2010
10-2013
10-2013
Pending Sales 10-2010
10-2012
10-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
October
Year To Date 429
4,668
4,640
442
4,692
399
2011
+7.5%
+3.0%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
372
365
-1.9%
December
294
283
-3.7%
Month
+0.6%
+0.5%
2012
2013
January
495
502
+1.4%
February
476
514
+8.0%
March
555
559
+0.7%
April
548
513
-6.4%
May
448
448
0.0%
June
417
422
+1.2%
July
400
442
+10.5%
August
457
435
-4.8%
September
443
415
-6.3%
October
429
442
+3.0%
12-Month Avg
445
445
+0.1%
Historical New Listing Activity 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
October
Year To Date 3,318 307
304
2,928 2,498
238
2011
+29.0%
-1.0%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
224
276
+23.2%
December
223
213
-4.5%
January
239
298
+24.7%
February
265
327
+23.4%
March
323
323
0.0%
April
352
347
-1.4%
May
315
349
+10.8%
June
303
361
+19.1%
July
273
380
+39.2%
August
308
319
+3.6%
September
243
310
+27.6%
October
307
304
-1.0%
12-Month Avg
281
317
+12.8%
Month
+17.2%
+13.3%
2012
2013
Historical Pending Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
October
Year To Date 316
3,066
283
2,751 2,253
220
2011
+28.6%
+11.7%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
212
307
+44.8%
December
253
247
-2.4%
January
220
217
-1.4%
February
181
229
+26.5%
Month
+22.1%
+11.5%
2012
2013
March
280
306
+9.3%
April
274
303
+10.6%
May
332
351
+5.7%
June
346
341
-1.4%
July
279
334
+19.7%
August
304
374
+23.0%
September
252
295
+17.1%
October
283
316
+11.7%
12-Month Avg
268
302
+13.6%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
October
Year To Date
138
139 130
129 117
2011
-6.2%
-9.7%
2012
2013
119
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
132
122
-7.7%
December
141
115
-18.6%
Month
-7.8%
-7.6%
2012
2013
January
134
127
-5.5%
February
130
124
-4.8%
March
136
121
-10.5%
April
152
121
-20.0%
May
129
122
-5.4%
June
125
118
-5.1%
July
124
125
+0.6%
August
110
111
+1.1%
September
121
105
-13.2%
October
130
117
-9.7%
12-Month Avg
130
119
-8.5%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 180
160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October
$239,133
2011
Year To Date
$235,000
$254,608
$249,833 $227,750
-1.7%
+6.3%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
$230,000
$233,000
+1.3%
December
$229,700
$238,070
+3.6%
January
$238,750
$245,745
+2.9%
February
$238,000
$228,000
-4.2%
March
$191,750
$225,000
+17.3%
April
$210,000
$263,000
+25.2%
May
$233,000
$275,625
+18.3%
June
$230,000
$252,500
+9.8%
July
$220,000
$299,000
+35.9%
August
$212,500
$260,964
+22.8%
September
$230,000
$245,000
+6.5%
October
$235,000
$249,833
+6.3%
12-Month Med
$225,000
$250,000
+11.1%
Month
$225,000
-1.2%
+13.2%
2012
2013
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
October $342,260
2011
Year To Date $347,171
$329,877
+ 1.4%
- 5.0%
2012
2013
$326,495
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
$319,573
$296,461
-7.2%
December
$314,152
$324,491
+3.3%
January
$327,373
$322,692
-1.4%
February
$300,293
$294,120
-2.1%
March
$331,155
$304,274
-8.1%
April
$345,660
$359,394
+4.0%
May
$311,333
$373,557
+20.0%
June
$310,184
$337,647
+8.9%
July
$286,352
$363,957
+27.1%
August
$266,470
$348,269
+30.7%
September
$358,255
$338,314
-5.6%
October
$347,171
$329,877
-5.0%
12-Month Avg
$317,455
$334,979
+5.5%
Month
$339,648 $317,595
- 2.7%
+ 6.9%
2012
2013
Historical Average Sales Price $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
October
94.0%
2011
Year To Date
95.0%
95.6%
+1.1%
+0.6%
2012
2013
94.4%
93.7%
2011
95.4%
+0.7%
+1.1%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
93.5%
95.5%
+2.1%
December
94.1%
95.2%
+1.2%
January
93.8%
95.1%
+1.3%
February
93.9%
95.3%
+1.5%
March
94.1%
96.1%
+2.1%
April
93.7%
95.1%
+1.6%
May
94.9%
95.8%
+1.0%
June
94.9%
95.2%
+0.3%
July
94.8%
95.1%
+0.4%
August
94.8%
95.5%
+0.7%
September
94.0%
95.5%
+1.6%
October
95.0%
95.6%
+0.6%
12-Month Avg
94.4%
95.4%
+1.1%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
October
Year To Date 152
147 130
2011
136
129
+12.6% +12 6%
-11.8% 11 8%
2012
2013
127
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
November
136
148
+9.2%
December
136
147
+8.0%
January
137
144
+4.9%
February
139
150
+8.0%
March
165
151
-8.2%
April
155
135
-13.2%
Month
+12.0% +12 0%
-16.4% 16 4%
2012
2013
+/–
May
144
125
-13.3%
June
146
127
-13.2%
July
154
110
-28.3%
August
158
123
-22.2%
September
150
131
-12.4%
October
147
129
-11.8%
12-Month Avg
147
135
-7.7%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
October 3,218 2,826 2,407
2011
-12.2%
-14.8%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
3,152
2,757
-12.5%
December
2,972
2,594
-12.7%
January
2,989
2,623
-12.2%
February
3,031
2,679
-11.6%
March
3,067
2,776
-9.5%
April
3,101
2,808
-9.4%
May
3,041
2,754
-9.4%
June
2,953
2,663
-9.8%
July
2,896
2,570
-11.3%
August
2,857
2,523
-11.7%
September
2,873
2,445
-14.9%
October
2,826
2,407
-14.8%
12-Month Avg
2,980
2,633
-11.7%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
October 13.4 10.0 7.6
2011
-25.2%
-24.5%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
November
13.1
9.7
-26.1%
December
12.1
9.1
-24.8%
January
12.2
9.1
-25.6%
February
12.3
9.1
-26.3%
March
12.4
9.4
-23.8%
April
12.1
9.5
-21.1%
May
11.6
9.3
-20.2%
June
11.2
8.8
-20.9%
July
10.9
8.3
-24.5%
August
10.5
8.1
-23.2%
September
10.4
7.7
-26.2%
October
10.0
7.6
-24.5%
12-Month Avg
11.6
8.8
-24.0%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12