Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
The Buckeye State has historically been a key to capturing the White House and will be just as important in this election Nov. 6.
OHIO COULD BE ‘TIPPING POINT STATE’ The New York Times’ Five Thirty Eight blog runs an updated statistical model forecasting which state is most likely to be the “tipping point state” – the state that provides the decisive electoral votes on election night. The winning candidate needs 270 of the total 538 votes to win. Percentage chance that each state could be the “tipping point state” as of Sept. 14: 40% 35%
35.9%
30% 25% 20%
14.0%
15%
12.4% 9.4%
10%
8.0%
5.5%
5% 0
OHIO
FLORIDA VIRGINIA COLO.
18
29
13
4.8%
3.8%
2.6%
1.3%
WISC.
IOWA
NEVADA
PENN.
N.H.
MINN.
10
6
6
20
4
10
9
ELECTORAL VOTES
Lake
Cleveland
Lucas
Williams Fulton
THE ‘FIVE OHIOS’
NORTHEAST
Toledo
Ashtabula
Ottawa
Cuyahoga Geauga Trumbull Portage NORTHWEST Youngstown Summit Huron Seneca Paulding Medina Putnam Hancock Akron Mahoning Crawford Ashland Wayne Van Stark Columbiana Wert Richland Canton Wyandot Allen Hardin Mercer Auglaize Carroll Marion Morrow Holmes Tuscarawas Jefferson CENTRAL Logan Knox Coshocton Union Delaware Shelby Harrison Darke Columbus Miami Champaign Muskingum Guernsey Belmont Licking SOUTHWEST Clark SOUTHEAST Franklin Dayton Madison Noble Monroe Preble Greene Fairfield Perry Morgan Montgomery Fayette Pickaway Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Athens PERCENTAGE Hamilton Highland OF VOTES FOR Clermont Meigs Pike REPUBLICANS Jackson Cincinnati Under 40% Brown Adams Gallia Scioto Henry
Defiance
Wood
Erie
Sandusky
Lorain
40%-48% 48%-56% 56%-64% Over 64%
Lawrence
PERCENTAGE OF VOTES CAST BY REGION, 1980-2010 DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN
Political scientists sometimes refer to the “five Ohios” — the five distinct parts of the state that when, taken together, balance each other out. Republican-leaning Southwest Ohio, for example, is balanced by solidly Democratic Northeast Ohio.
SOUTHWEST
The map on the left and the chart below show the percentage of overall votes cast for Republican candidates by county in elections from 1980-2010, using an aggregate of presidential, U.S. Senate, governor, Ohio secretary of state, Ohio treasurer, Ohio auditor and Ohio attorney general races calculated by the University of Akron’s Bliss Institute. The pies on the right show the division of the vote by region.
43%
NORTHWEST 47%
53%
CENTRAL
PERCENTAGE OF VOTES CAST FOR REPUBLICANS BY COUNTY 70%
57%
46%
54%
60% 50%
SOUTHEAST 50.31%
40%
49.69%
30% 20%
NORTHEAST 57%
10% 0 NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
43%
CENTRAL NORTHWEST SOUTHWEST
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING... No Republican has won the White House without also winning Ohio. The last candidate to win the presidency without Ohio’s electoral votes was John F. Kennedy in 1960.
1960
1964
Democrat
1968
Republican
1972
Election winner
1976
Ohio winner
1980
John F. Kennedy
Lyndon Johnson
Richard NIxon
Richard Nixon
Jimmy Carter
Ronald Reagan
Richard Nixon
Barry Goldwater
Hubert Humphrey
George McGovern
Gerald Ford
Jimmy Carter
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Ronald Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton
G.W. Bush
G.W. Bush
Barack Obama
Walter Mondale
Michael Dukakis
G.H.W. Bush
Bob Dole
Al Gore
John Kerry
John McCain
Kentucky voted the same way as Ohio over the same time frame up until 2008:
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
WHAT DOES OHIO’S ECONOMY FORETELL? Which way will Ohio go? A top issue is the economy. Here’s a look at how Ohio’s unemployment rate in recent incumbents have fared compared to Ohio’s unemployment rate. Jan. when president took office 10% 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0
7.4%
7.3%
7.1%
5.5%
Ohio unemployment rate in Oct. prior to election 8.6%
6.2%
7.2%*
4.9% 3.8%
2000
2004
2008
WHAT CAN YOU DO? • No. 1: Register to vote now! The deadline is Oct. 9. You can go to myohiovote.com • Get involved: See our list of candidate meetings and political events and learn about the candidates and issues at Cincinnati.com • Learn more about the candidates at Cincinnati.com:
JAN. ’77 OCT. ’80
JAN. ’81 OCT. ’84
JAN. ’89 OCT. ’92
JAN. ’93 OCT. ’96
JAN. ’01 OCT. ’04
JAN. ’09 JULY ’12
1980 ELECTION 1984 ELECTION 1992 ELECTION 1996 ELECTION 2004 ELECTION 2012 ELECTION RATE: +2.1 PTS.
RATE: -0.1 PTS.
RATE: +1.8 PTS.
RATE: -2.2 PTS.
RATE: +2.4 PTS.
RATE: -1.4 PTS.
INC. (CARTER): LOST
INC. (REAGAN): WON
INC. (G.H.W. BUSH): LOST
INC. (CLINTON): WON
INC. (G.W. BUSH): WON
INC. (OBAMA): ???
• Play our candidate match game • Follow the election at the Politics Extra blog • Build your ballot
*The July rate, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the most recent data for 2012.
Sources: USA Today, Ohio Secretery of State, The New York Times’ Five Thirty Eight blog, The University of Akron’s Bliss Institute
Photos by Joseph Fuqua/The Enquirer and Associated Press; graphics by Mike Nyerges/The Enquirer