Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
If you live in Ohio, you’re lucky. Ohio is one of 12 battleground states that will determine who the next president will be. Here are some facts and figures looking at Ohio’s importance on election day.
2012 BATTLEGROUND STATES Polls show Kentucky and Indiana are solidly red — meaning Republican Mitt Romney is expected to win their electoral votes, and they will not be heavily contested. States and their electoral votes: BATTLEGROUND STATE WA: 12
PREDICTED OBAMA ND: 3
MT: 3
WI: 10
SD: 3 WY: 3 NE: 5
NV: 6
VT: 3 ME: 4
MN: 10
OR: 7 ID: 4
UT: 6
CO: 9
CA: 55 AZ:11
IA: 6
KS: 6 OK: 7
NM: 5
TX: 38
AK: 3
PREDICTED ROMNEY
HI: 4
MO: 10 AR: 6 LA: 8
NY: 29
MI: 16
MA: 11 RI: 4 CT: 7 NJ: 14 DE: 3 MD: 10 DC: 3
PA: 20 OH: IN: 18 WV 11 :5 VA: 13 KY: 8 NC: 15 TN: 11 SC: 9 GA: MS: AL: 16 6 9
IL: 20
OBAMA
ROMNEY
196
191
NH: 4
FL: 29
270 electoral votes needed
THE NATION HAS MIRRORED OHIO
Ohio went for George W. Bush in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2008, helping each man win the White House. No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio.
2004
2008
KERRY
BUSH
OBAMA McCAIN
251
286
365
270 electoral votes needed
173
270 electoral votes needed
BREAKING DOWN HOW OHIO HAS VOTED 2004
3.0 million 2.5 million 2.0 million 1.5 million 1.0 million 500,000 0
Toledo Cleveland Akron Canton
KERRY
Toledo Cleveland
KERRY: 48.7%
Dayton
BUSH: 50.8%
Athens KERRY BUSH
Cincinnati
3.0 million 2.5 million 2.0 million 1.5 million 1.0 million 500,000 0
Akron Canton
26,973 BUSH OTHERS
OTHERS: 0.5%
Columbus
Dayton
2008
2.74M 2.85M
2.94M
90,486 OBAMA McCAIN OTHERS
McCAIN: 46.9%
Columbus
OBAMA McCAIN
Cincinnati
Our four Southwest Ohio counties provided the margin of victory for Bush. He collected 200,616 more votes than Kerry here, and won the state by 118,601 votes.
OTHERS: 1.6% OBAMA: 51.5%
Athens
16 counties 72 counties
2.67M
21 counties 67 counties
Hamilton County helped Obama win the state, voting Democratic for the first time since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in a landslide.
SEVERAL POLLS SAY THE RACE IS CLOSE RIGHT NOW Recent polls show that the election remains tight in Ohio.
NBC/WALL STREET JOURNAL/MARIST OTHER: 7% ROMNEY: 43%
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING OTHER: 5%
OBAMA
+7
OBAMA: 50%
ROMNEY: 45%
Poll of 979 likely voters conducted Sept. 9-11. Margin of error: +/- 3.1 percentage points.
GRAVIS MARKETING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS OTHER: 7%
OTHER: 10% OBAMA: ROMNEY: 50% 43%
OBAMA
+5
Poll of 1,072 likely voters conducted Sept. 7-9. Margin of error: +/- 3.0 percentage points.
COLUMBUS DISPATCH
OBAMA
+4
OBAMA: ROMNEY: 47% 46%
Poll of 1,548 likely voters conducted Sept. 7-8. Margin of error: +/- 2.7 percentage points.
OTHER: 10%
OBAMA
+1
OBAMA: 47%
ROMNEY: 45%
Poll of 500 likely voters conducted Sept. 12. Margin of error: +/- 4.5 percentage points.
OBAMA: 45%
TIE
Poll of 1,758 likely voters conducted by mail Aug. 15-25. Margin of error: +/- 2.1 percentage points.
BLUE GRASS, RED STATE? Why is Ohio more important than Kentucky? Kentucky hasn’t gone to the Democrats since 1996, when Bill Clinton become the first Democrat elected to a second term since FDR. Since then, Kentucky has voted overwhelmingly in favor of Republican candidates.
2012 ELECTORAL VOTES OHIO
18 KENTUCKY
8
Sources: USA Today, realclearpolitics.com, Ohio Secretery of State
1.2 million 1.0 million 800,000 636,614 623,283 600,000 400,000 120,396 200,000 0
CLINTON
DOLE
1996
PEROT
1.06M 872,492 638,898
GORE
BUSH
2000
751,985
712,733
KERRY
1.04M
BUSH
2004
OBAMA
McCAIN
2008
Photos by Joseph Fuqua/The Enquirer and Associated Press; graphics by Mike Nyerges/The Enquirer