CGA – THE NEW REALITY IN THE OUT OF HOME MARKET OCTOBER 2020
Presented by CGA
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Market confidence has been on a roller coaster journey over the past five years, with current leader confidence at a low How optimistic are you about the prospects for the eating and drinking out market as a whole over the next 12 months? Proportion of leaders “very” or “fairly” optimistic
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Feb- Feb- Feb- Jul- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- Jun- Sep- Oct14 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 General market 86% 93% 74% 15% 36% 47% 43% 34% 30% 34% 47% 36% 39% 39% 41% 30% 44% 60% 5% 16% 9% 2% Own business 90% 91% 83% 24% 61% 68% 66% 66% 52% 64% 75% 67% 63% 68% 65% 58% 64% 83% 15% 32% 37% 8%
CGA Business Confidence Q3 2020
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
With like for likes sales growth at less than -25%, following what looked like a recovery in August, it is perhaps no surprise that sector confidence is low Coffer Peach Business Tracker – weekly like for like YoY sales growth
8.7% -1.7% -13.7% -24.3%
-22.8%
-25.3%
-31.6%
06-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 03-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 07-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 05-Oct www.cga.co.uk
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Business leaders cite a host of challenges set to negatively impact businesses over the coming six months, including changing work patterns and squeezed incomes Proportion of business leaders predicting trends to negatively impact their business over the next six months
90% 81%
79% 71%
67%
33%
Fragile consumer confidence
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Avoidance of city centres
Squeezed disposable income
Decreased inbound tourism
Widespread A desire to working from stay / support home local
29%
Increased demand for delivery
12%
10%
Increased scrutiny on diversity & inclusion
Increased internal tourism / staycations
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Consumer confidence, along with leader confidence has been on a roller coaster journey since re-opening back in July Impact of Eat Out To Help Out on consumer confidence about going out in the near future, for first time visitors to the market
3%
41%
56%
Less confident
About the same
More confident
Sample size: BT Aug: 1903
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Those visiting venues for the Eat Out To Help Out scheme have been reassured by their experience enough to return again
81% Of EOTHO visitors agree their overall experience reassured them enough to visit venues again [6]
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Overall, since re-opening, consumer expectations are consistently being met or exceeded when visiting the out of home market Thinking generally about your visit(s) to pubs, bars, or restaurants since restrictions were lifted, how did you find your trip(s)?
40%
56%
4%
Better than expected
As expected
Worse than expected
Sample size: BrandTrack August 3,225
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Consumer satisfaction with cleanliness and hygiene procedures remains high, with staff perceived to be complying to hygiene protocol
95% Of consumers were satisfied with the level of hygiene/ cleanliness of the venue 80% were highly satisfied
88% Of consumers were satisfied with how well the team followed hygiene practices 65% were highly satisfied
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
It is those on the front line who have elevated experiences in the sector, with perceptions of staff interaction improving since re-opening How have the following compared to previous experiences when eating and drinking out before lockdown?
Interaction with staff
23%
63%
14%
Better than before The same as before
Overall experience
15%
Atmosphere in venue
14%
69%
16%
Worse than before
Sample size: BrandTrack August 3,215
62%
24%
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
However, the ban on meetings of more than six people has left nearly a third feeling less confident about visiting pubs, bars and restaurants Compared to before the Rule Of Six announcement, how confident do you now feel about visiting pubs, bars, and restaurants?
31%
58%
4%
Less confident
About the same
More confident
8% = ‘I don’t know’ Sample size: CGA Snap poll 10.09.20: 501
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Further restrictions around the 10pm curfew, table service and face coverings has dented consumer confidence in eating and drinking out, although not universally Compared to before the additional measures were announced, do you feel more or less confident about going out to pubs, bars and restaurants in the near future?
-13% Net impact on consumer confidence
Much less confident
18%
Less confident About the same level of confidence More confident
Much more confident
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10%
57%
12% 3%
[11]1000 Sample size:
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
38% Of leaders predict that there will be sites that remain permanently closed across their estate 36% in June (21% undecided) 32% in April (31% undecided)
CGA Business Confidence Q3 2020
8% Of leaders are undecided
For leaders who are predicting closures, the average proportion of sites predicted to close is
16%
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Across the total market the majority of pubs have been able to re-open, with bars and restaurants lagging behind
80.4% of total licensed premises open at end of September 2020
CGA Market Recovery Monitor
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Compared to other major cities within the UK, the capital has been slower in reopening outlets within the licensed sector
The 6 major cities: % of sites trading at the end of September
85.6% Liverpool
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83.6%
82.9%
Manchester Birmingham
82.3%
77.7%
Edinburgh
Glasgow
75.6% London
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Changing working habits has impacted many out-of-home trips, with the majority of consumers visiting at least one eating or drinking venue near to where they worked at least weekly
66% Of consumers who are new to working from home said they used eat and drink out in venues near to work at least once a week
15% Every/almost every day
24% 3 – 5 times a week
27% Once or twice a week Sample size: BT Aug Working from home: 1467
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
However, of those who are going out locally, two in five are doing so to support local businesses Why are you going out more locally to where you live now? Please select all that apply
41% Said they are visiting venues local to where they live to support local businesses
Sample size: BT Aug: 390
Because I am still working from home, so it is more accessible
47%
To support local businesses
To avoid going into busy areas (e.g. city centres)
Because it is cheaper to stay local
To avoid public transport
44%
31%
27%
25%
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CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Although closures are predicted across the market, opening plans have not stalled for all operators Are you planning on opening any new sites in the remainder of 2020?
3%
36% Of business leaders still have plans for site openings across the remainder of 2020
www.cga.co.uk
No
12%
Yes, 1 site Yes, 2 - 5 sites Yes, over 5 sites
21% 64%
CGA MARKET CONTEXT
Finally, some words of encouragement from the UK hospitality sector’s most engaged consumers… Stay with us as we will get thro' this together.
Prepare well and greet us with a huge smile and I think the hospitality needs a helping hand we will be back. Good luck and the British public should actively support and get behind it.
The hospitality industry has suffered much more than most in the pandemic, and I'm only too willing to support them.
Absolutely, wishing good luck to all pubs, clubs, hotels, attractions. We have all
Really looking forward to seeing you all again. Don't cut corners just to make a few quid, it's simply not worth it. Let's make it a good experience for all. We all need to support the hospitality sector so let's make it work!
missed you! UKH Consumer Survey – Undertaken by CGA
For more information, please contact: Charlie Mitchell, Research & Insight Director Charlie.mitchell@cga.co.uk
www.cga.co.uk
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