Timber supplies and the butterfly effect

Timber Transport Officer Paul Boobyer reflects on the impact of the recent crises – from climate, to Brexit, to a global pandemic – on our sector

“It was the best of times, and it was the worst of times”, wrote Charles Dickens in the opening of A Tale of Two Cities. 162 years later, the same phrase could be applied to the forestry, wood processing and timber haulage sectors in Great Britain. Dickens was referring to events that culminated in the French Revolution, brought to a head by climate change, crop failures, unemployment, and the government’s inability to service its debt. Thankfully, the situation is not as drastic in 2021 (let’s hope) – certainly there’s no lack of employment – but the business climate in which timber processors and hauliers are currently operating is highly challenging.

In many regards it’s the best of times for the forestry and timber processing industries: timber prices are riding high, there are strong incentives for afforestation – the Climate Change Committee is promoting the use of timber in construction, and architects are increasingly using timber as an alternative to carbon-heavy materials such as concrete or steel; an example will be displayed at the COP26.

And it’s the worst of times: The halt in sawmilling imposed during the Covid-19 restrictions meant that processors had to use up stocks to meet demands. Now that the UK has left the EU, movements of timber require more paperwork and is subject to stringent regulations, making it challenging to obtain road haulage rights, which delays imports from EU countries. Meanwhile, Russia is proposing a ban on roundwood exports, which will increase demand for supplies from Europe, which are also running low on stocks. severe shortages of products and materials, and a lack of hauliers to deliver them, is creating intense pressure on the forest products sector.

The crop failures in France in the 1780s were caused by a volcanic eruption in Iceland. Descriptions of the resulting climate change are like biblical portents of doom: Noon in London was likened to a rustred dusk, and the English naturalist Gilbert White described a peculiar haze, or smoky fog that prevailed for many weeks. The changing weather patterns affected the Indian monsoon cycle and there was a succession of harsh winters in Europe.

The Butterfly Effect – the unforeseen consequences by which small changes in initial conditions can lead to large-scale and unpredictable variation – is perfectly demonstrated by the impact of climate change both in the 1780s and today. And in addition, the timber haulage sector is struggling due to increase in border legislation, a lack of staff and concerns about pay levels. These myriad factors have led to a perfect storm. We can only hope that climate change can be mitigated through decarbonisation at a global level in the longer term, and supply chain issues resolved in the short to medium terms, along with an increase in the planting of domestic, productive forests.