Oil and Industry 2018

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OIL&INDUSTRY

The Courier & Daily Comet | Premium Edition  |  Saturday, September 29, 2018 1

SMOOTHER SAILING AHEAD?

Major traders are talking about $100 oil again

By Javier Blas Bloomberg

Area economy shows signs of life, but any recovery will take time By Julia Arenstam Staff Writer Terrebonne and Lafourche are still feeling the effects of the oil bust of 2014, but the local economy is showing signs of improvement, a state economist says. Like a slow-moving hurricane that won’t go away, the offshore oil bust that started four years ago has cost Houma-Thibodaux more than 16,000 jobs, or about 16 percent of the workforce, retired LSU economist Loren Scott said. “This downturn has just been horrific,” he said. “During the Great Recession in 2008-2009, U.S. employment fell by 6.1 percent. Compare that to the 15.8 percent in the Houma area. It’s been pretty horrendous.” “The decline in the last few years hasn’t been significant, but the bad news is it hasn’t made a turn yet,” Scott said. “That’s why higher oil prices for a sustained period of time is so important.” SIGNS OF LIFE In his annual economic

forecast, delivered to local business groups Wednesday, Scott predicts the area will gain 700 jobs next year and 2,100 the following. He says he expects the metro area, comprised of Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes, to end with a net gain of 200 jobs for 2018. His report cites several reasons for his assertion that the local economy has hit bottom and is on the path to a slow improvement. Among them: • Though small, the area posted year-over-year job gains for several months this year. • The Gulf-wide oil lease sale in August garnered $178 million in bids from companies seeking drilling rights, up 39 percent from the previous sale in March. It’s far lower than the $851 million companies bid in just the central Gulf back in 2014, “but at least it is moving in the right direction.” • After declining three straight years, traffic counts are up on La. 1 to and from Port Fourchon, a service hub for most of the Gulf oilfield. The count is up an average 3.7 percent for the first seven months

of the year, and slightly higher for June and July. • Several south Louisiana oilfield firms are forecasting growth through 2020, while others have added other types of work that will create or maintain jobs. THE PRICE IS RIGHT A major factor that could jump-start the local economy is rising oil prices, Scott said. For almost all of 2018, oil has traded above $60 a barrel, a figure widely cited as the break-even point for most Gulf deepwater operations, though companies continue to push it lower. “Oil prices are much more bullish than they were a year ago,” he said. “Many analysts are thinking maybe $80 is going to be achievable by 2020. Having a steady period of oil price recovery will be the signal that the industry needs to get back to the Gulf of Mexico.” Aside from higher global demand, there are several driving forces behind the increased barrel prices, Scott said. “The tricky thing is on

the supply side of things, where you have a marked increase in production in the United States,” Scott said. “We are producing record numbers of oil. Also, the president has jawboned OPEC and Russia into putting a little bit more oil on the market. He doesn’t like these oil prices being high.” Those factors will work to push oil prices lower, but they will be offset by production declines in Venezuela and civil unrest sparked by tensions between Libya and Nigeria and Saudi Arabia and Iran, Scott said. “More importantly, sanctions going into place on Iran by the United States alone will probably take about 400,000 barrels off the market,” Scott said. “Given that scenario, I think the price is going to go to at least $80.” RULES AND REGULATIONS Another factor that could drive up prices are new regulations set to take effect next year, Scott said. See RECOVERY, 11

Major oil trading houses are predicting the return of $100 crude for the first time since 2014 as OPEC and its allies struggle to compensate for U.S. sanctions on Iran’s exports. With Brent crude already jumping to an almost four-year high on Monday, that’s exactly the kind of price surge President Donald Trump has been seeking to prevent by pressuring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise production. Yet the cartel and its allies gave mixed signals at a meeting in Algiers on Sunday, ultimately showing little sign they would heed U.S. demands to rapidly push down crude prices. OPEC’s reticence, combined with signs of accelerating supply losses from Iran, created a bullish mood the the annual gathering of the Asian oil industry, traders, refiners and bankers in Singapore on Monday. “The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. co-founder Daniel Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, knows as APPEC. “In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of $100 a barrel.” When Trump in May announced plans to re-impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the market estimated a cut of about 300,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, said Trafigura Group co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock. However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels daily as the U.S. is “incredibly serious” about its See TRADERS, 6

Work to diversify area’s economy inches forward By Julia Arenstam Staff Writer The local economy may have stabilized, but officials are still working toward the elusive goal of diversifying its mix of businesses so it is less dependent on the oil industry. When the offshore industry plunged in 2014, Houma-Thibodaux’s economy sank with it. An estimated one in five residents work directly for oil-related companies, and officials estimate that 40 percent to 50 percent of all local jobs depend on that industry for their own success. In February 2014, Houma-Thibodaux, comprised of Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes, posted the lowest jobless rate of any U.S. metro area at 2.8 percent. It’s now about twice that rate, but the figure masks a labor force that has shrunk considerably. About 85,000 people were either working or looking for work in July, a 21 percent decline since

August 2014. Since the oil bust began, more than one of every five people have left Terrebonne and Lafourche, gone back to school or otherwise stopped looking for work. “Over time, through various economic cycles, we’ve seen the bayou region have some of lowest unemployment in the nation to now some of the highest in the nation because of dependency,” Louisiana Economic Development Secretary Don Pierson said. Last year, Loren Scott, an economist and professor emeritus at LSU, predicted HoumaThibodaux would lose another 1,800 jobs in 2018. But the area has defied that prediction, and the downturn appears to have hit bottom, he told a group of business people this week in Gray. The area, Scott noted, is up a few hundred jobs so far this year. His latest report forecasts a gain of 700 jobs next year and 2,100 the following year, buoyed by rising oil prices that he

expects to average $80 a barrel in 2020. “There’s good news ahead,’’ he said. SHIFTING GEARS Scott’s annual economic forecast cites several examples of local oilfield service companies taking on other types of work. Among them: • Thoma-Sea Marine in Houma now has 350 employees and expects that number to remain relatively stable through 2020. The company will begin work this year to refurbish a Pacific Coast fishing trawler. And it just landed a multi-milliondollar contract with Rolls Royce to build a 328-foot fishing boat. Repair work for the Coast Guard and on other tugs and barges also keeps the company busy. • Gulf Island Fabrication in Houma has made parts for an offshore wind farm off Rhode Island and has bid for more such work with that state and Massachusetts. The

Gulf Island Fabrication of Houma adapted its expertise building offshore oil platforms to construct supports (yellow structures above) for wind turbines that generate electricity off Rhode Island. The company is bidding on more such projects off the East Coast. [AP Photo/Michael Dwyer]

company is starting work on an oceangoing research ship for Oregon State University with a contract for a second awarded for 2019 and a third subject to congressional approval. The company, with about 650 workers in Houma,

recently won a $63.6 million contract to build the first of potentially seven new Navy salvage, towing and rescue ships. It has also built major components for new chemical and liquefied natural gas plants in the Lake Charles

area. • Bollinger Shipyards, based in Lockport, shifted its focus years ago from oilfield boats to Coast Guard work. The company is about midway into a contract to build 58 Coast See ECONOMY, 11


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