The Marin County Luxury Home Market Spring 2021 Report
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens or hundreds of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Data from MLS, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS.
Marin County Long-Term Luxury Home Sales 12-Month Rolling Sales Volumes since 2011* 250
225
House Sales - $3,000,000 to $4,999,999
200
The luxury home market is sensitive to economic conditions, such as the stock market, which peaked in 2015, 2018, early 2020, and early 2021. And, of course, the pandemic was a huge factor in the market, starting in spring 2020.
175
Q1 2020
150
2018 2015
125
Pandemic hits ▲
100
75
* Each data point reflects 12 months of MLS sales: Average monthly sales volumes = 1/12 of these compiled figures. Using 12-month rolling data mostly removes the effect of seasonality on sales.
50
As reported to MLS, per Infosparks through 3/31/21
Reflecting sales reported to MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Jan-21
Oct-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Jan-20
Oct-19
Jul-19
Apr-19
Jan-19
Oct-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Jan-18
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
25
Marin County Long-Term Ultra-Luxury Home Sales 12-Month Rolling Sales Volumes since 2011* 80
House Sales - $5,000,000+
70
60
* Each data point reflects 12 months of MLS sales: Average monthly sales volumes = 1/12 of these compiled figures. Using 12-month rolling data mostly removes the effect of seasonality on sales.
2018
50
40
30
Pandemic hits ▲
20
10
As reported to MLS, per Infosparks through 3/31/21
Reflecting sales reported to MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Jan-21
Oct-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Jan-20
Oct-19
Jul-19
Apr-19
Jan-19
Oct-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Jan-18
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
0
Marin County Luxury House Market Sales & Active MLS Listings by Price Segment, $3 Million+ 199
200
12 Months Sales
Active MLS Listings on 4/20/21 180
Luxury Home Sales
160
April 16, 2020 – April 15, 2021
140
Active Listings for Sale
21% of Marin luxury home sales were not marketed through MLS (but were reported to MLS after sale). This suggests that the total number of luxury homes “on the market,” including those not listed in MLS is somewhat higher than indicated here (in blue). Still, historically speaking, demand is clearly extremely strong when compared to supply, especially for luxury homes under $8 million.
on April 20, 2021
70
120 100
80 60
41 33
40
21 10
$3m $3,999,999
$4m $4,999,999
7
$5m $5,999,999
6
$6m $7,999,999
10
20
3
$8m $9,999,999
2
6
$10m $14,999,999
As reported to MLS. “Active” includes “Coming Soon” listings. Not all luxury home listing and sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
0
2
$15 Million+
0
Marin County Luxury House Sales
As reported to MLS, per Infosparks through 3/31/21
3-Month Rolling Sales Volume since 2016
Q3 2020
Year over year, Q1 2021 home sales of $3 million - $4,999,999 were up 138%, and home sales of $5,000,000+ were up 163%. Luxury home sales typically peak in Q2, though not in 2020.
Home Sales - $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 Home Sales - $5,000,000+
100
80
Q2
Q2
Q2
60 Each data point reflects 3 months of MLS sales. 40
20
Reflecting sales reported to MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Mar-21
Jan-21
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jul-20
May-20
Mar-20
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
Jul-19
May-19
Mar-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Jul-18
May-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
0
Marin County Luxury Home Market Home Sales, $3 Million+, by Month
As reported to MLS, per Infosparks
Summer 2020
Generally speaking, sales in one month reflect new listings and offers being accepted in the previous month or two. Luxury home sales typically ebb and flow dramatically by season.
45 40
Fires hit
35 30
Spring 2018 Spring 2019
25
Oct.
20
Pandemic hits
15 10 5
House and townhouse activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
0
Marin Luxury House Market February 2021 Update: 12 months sales reported to MLS
Homes Selling for $3,000,000+, 12 Months Sales Sales $3m - $3.99m
Sales $4m - $4.99m
Tiburon
50
Mill Valley 10
Kentfield
13
5
4
16
Sausalito
11
Larkspur
12 6
12
1
7 3
5
21 4
2 4
4
2 3
11
9
12
13 9
10
San Rafael
West Marin
10
16
Ross
San Anselmo
16
30
Belvedere
Stinson Beach
Sales $5m - $7.499m
11
3
A few other Marin communities had 2 or less sales in these price segments.
12 months sales reported to MLS. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Sales $7,500,000+ 15
10
Luxury Homes: New Listings Coming on Market Marin County Luxury Homes $3,000,000+
Activity reported to MLS, per Infosparks
The luxury home market is fiercely seasonal. It was severely disrupted by the pandemic in early spring 2020, then saw a dramatic rebound in May. May 2018
Sept. 2020
May 2020
50
March 2019 40
Sept. 2019
Oct. 2018
30
20
▲ Pandemic hits Summer MidWinter
10
December December
Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Feb-21 Mar-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Feb-20 Mar-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Feb-19 Mar-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Feb-18 Mar-18
Jan-18
0
San Francisco Luxury House Market Dynamics since 2018 Active Listings on Market at End of Month, 3-Month Rolling Average Active Listings - Luxury Houses, $3m - $4.999m 100
Active Listings - Ultra-Luxury Houses, $5 Million+
90
80
70
60
50
40
Pandemic hits ▲
30
Chart reflects listings and sales reported to MLS only. Some luxury house listings and sales are not reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
20 Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
3-month rolling MLS data per Infosparks through 3/31/21
Marin Luxury Home Market Listings Accepting Offers in Month, Priced $3 Million+
MLS activity, per Infosparks: Listings going into contract
Aug. 2020
45 40 35
Fires hit
May 2019
May 2018
30 25
Pandemic hits
20 15 10 5
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Based upon MLS activity. All numbers approximate.
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
0
Marin County Luxury House Market Dynamics Median Days on Market, Homes Selling @ $3 Million+, since Mid-2018
3-month rolling MLS data 55
45
▲Softer market ▼Stronger market 35
Pandemic hits ▲ 25
This statistic measures the median number of days it took for a sold listing to accept an offer after coming on market: The lower the number, the faster new listings are going into contract. This statistic is often affected by seasonal trends in the luxury home market. The pandemic also had a large impact.
15
3-month rolling MLS data per Infosparks through 3/31/21
Chart reflects listings and sales reported to MLS only. Some luxury house listings and sales are not reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
5
Percentage of Luxury Home Listings Accepting Offers Marin County, Homes Priced $3 Million+, by Month
Based upon MLS activity, per Broker Metrics 45%
The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase.
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
0%
Marin County Luxury House Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), 3-Month Rolling Data, since 2018 18
MSI - Ultra-Luxury Houses, $5 Million+ 16
MSI - Luxury Houses, $3m - $4.99m
14
▲Softer market ▼Stronger market
12
10 8 6
Pandemic hits ▲
2
Chart reflects listings and sales reported to MLS only. Some luxury house listings and sales are not reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
0 Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
3-month rolling MLS data per Infosparks through 3/31/21 Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the inventory of active listings at the existing annual rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on market.
4
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.