Multi-Family Market Report
San Francisco - CA
PREPARED BY
Roark O'Neill Real Estate Agent
San Francisco Multi-Family
MULTI-FAMILY MARKET REPORT
Market Key Statistics
2
Vacancy
4
Rent
7
Construction
12
Under Construction Properties
14
Sales
16
Sales Past 12 Months
19
Economy
21
Market Submarkets
25
Supply & Demand Trends
28
Vacancy & Rent
30
Sale Trends
32
Deliveries & Under Construction
34
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021
Overview San Francisco Multi-Family 12 Mo. Delivered Units
12 Mo. Absorption Units
Vacancy Rate
12 Mo. Asking Rent Growth
2,439
(8,729)
12.6%
-11.6%
The tech industry fueled extraordinary demand for housing in San Francisco during the longest economic expansion cycle on record, while simultaneously heightening the market's vulnerability to an economic downturn in the process. Historically, the market outperforms during expansions but it also suffers substantially in recessions, and the latest cycle has seen those trends continue and exaggerate. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, some rapidly scaling startups have failed, or slashed staff and abandoned offices. While many mature and profitable tech employers in the market have retained or even strategically grown their workforces through the pandemic, a slowdown in Bay Area-based hiring, and shift towards remote work adopted by many, including the city's largest employer, Salesforce, has led to an outflow of renters. Graduates in STEM education fields—science, technology, engineering, and mathematics—who had moved to the market in droves, attracted to its heavy concentration of leading tech companies and start-ups, recently moved out, to cheaper and cities and towns throughout the country. Without the restaurants, nightlife, shops, museums, and parks that make San Francisco a desirable live/work/play environment, its high cost of living was no longer worth it for some with the ability to relocate. Renters working from home were attracted to more suburban, outdoor-friendly areas, and some younger millennials moved back home, at least temporarily. Job losses also plagued the apartment market. Employment in retail, hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment venues has been devastated. The loss of so many jobs combined with an exodus resulting from a forced adoption of remote work led to a substantial outflow of apartment renters in 2020. The trajectory of the market in 2021 will largely depend on how many renters come back when offices reopen, and how quickly the draws of a large vibrant city are restored. Distribution of the coronavirus vaccine and plans to reopen offices in the late summer and fall has already
ushered back some apartment rental demand. However, San Francisco's moratorium on residential evictions related to financial impacts caused by the coronavirus has forestalled some occupancy losses. Owners including Irvine Co and Essex Property Trust have proactively reached out to tenants, offering financial support and payment plans to renters facing hardship. Most new developments reaching delivery have been targeted towards the high end to maximize returns, and the luxury, amenity-rich buildings were well-received by a growing population of wealthy retirees and well-paid millennials from around the country and world, before the coronavirus pandemic. Developers patient enough to navigate San Francisco's drawn-out building approval process had been rewarded with the brisk lease-up of new projects at premium rental rates during the 2010's expansion cycle, but lease-up has slowed significantly since the pandemic hit. New properties have lowered rents and offered steep incentives, driving up competition for older buildings that have seen occupancies fall to levels previously unimagined. Affordability has been a growing concern among renters for years, and likely exasperated occupancy losses amid the coronavirus shutdown. San Francisco still ranks as the most expensive market in the country despite a substantial drop in asking rents during the pandemic, and high housing costs have been a primary driver of its growing domestic migration outflow. Asset pricing rose to historic levels during the 2010s expansion cycle based on the market's sound fundamentals and strong rent growth, but pricing is now on the downswing adjusting to lower rent potential. The majority of institutional investors in the US will continue to target global gateway cities like San Francisco in the long run though. Furthermore, some private buyers are still competing for properties as the cost of capital remains relatively low and value-add deals at the right purchase price will still provide opportunities for attractive returns. Cap rates remain among the lowest among all markets in the country. However, with restrained credit conditions and reduced volume, cap rates are finally facing slight upward pressures.
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Overview San Francisco Multi-Family KEY INDICATORS Units
Vacancy Rate
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Absorption Units
Delivered Units
Under Constr Units
4 & 5 Star
34,341
19.5%
$3,366
$3,264
233
40
3,509
3 Star
45,895
12.0%
$2,648
$2,595
65
0
416
1 & 2 Star
89,692
10.2%
$2,241
$2,222
(165)
0
183
Market
169,928
12.6%
$2,742
$2,685
133
40
4,108
Annual Trends
12 Month
Historical Average
Forecast Average
Peak
When
Trough
When
6.5%
5.0%
13.8%
12.6%
2020 Q4
2.4%
2000 Q1
Current Quarter
Vacancy Change (YOY) Absorption Units
(8,729)
592
1,003
3,226
2018 Q1
(9,376)
2020 Q4
Delivered Units
2,439
1,427
1,046
4,128
2016 Q3
22
2012 Q1
Demolished Units
0
68
69
460
2019 Q2
0
2020 Q4
Asking Rent Growth (YOY)
-11.6%
1.6%
-0.6%
19.1%
2001 Q1
-12.3%
2020 Q4
Effective Rent Growth (YOY)
-12.7%
1.5%
-0.7%
19.1%
2001 Q1
-13.6%
2020 Q4
Sales Volume
$1.2 B
$1.5B
N/A
$3B
2020 Q1
$317.9M
2009 Q4
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Vacancy San Francisco Multi-Family In the face of devastating job losses and an exodus from cramped, expensive apartments in the city, San Francisco's market fundamentals deteriorated quickly. Vacancy bottomed out at expansion-era lows of 4.4% in 19Q1, rising higher even before the pandemic hit as supply growth outpaced slowing occupancy gains. Driven by the exodus of so many renters during the pandemic, and exasperated by ongoing construction competitions, demand and supply-side shocks to the market have nearly tripled vacancy, sending it to a historical high of 12.6%, well above the national average. Some millennial renters without job access moved back home, while outdoor-friendly cheaper towns enticed Bay Area residents suddenly provided the option to work from anywhere. As moratoriums on evictions expire, the market will become more vulnerable to occupancy losses. New apartment properties were leasing up quickly before the pandemic hit, but with a downturn in the economy, developers are facing significant challenges. New units are often leased by incoming job takers and may struggle to stabilize as start-ups fold and the pace of hiring slows among established tech giants, or shifts towards more remote workers in other metros. While demand for apartments is fading, a solid supply pipeline underway still awaits completion. With roughly 4,100 units currently under construction, supply levels in the market remain fairly elevated. Meanwhile, occupancy is forecast to fall further as a result of job loss. The two factors combined lead vacancy to unprecedented heights in CoStar's forecast model. Developers have added over 2,700 units to the market annually over the past five years, on average. The pace of deliveries in the market has slowed from a cyclical peak reached in 2016 and 2017, but will remain elevated through 2022 based on the projects currently underway. Demand for new inventory was robust prior to the coronavirus pandemic with most projects stabilizing occupancy within 12 months of delivery, but lease-up at some new developments has slowed in response to the recent downturn in employment and slower job growth trajectory.
The premium and luxury units recently added to the market command rental rates only affordable to highincome earners. An exodus of mid- and low-income renters has grown over the past decade, with longstanding residents moving to Oakland or out of the Bay Area entirely in search of more affordable housing. In the recent health-driven pandemic, it appears that even high-income renters of choice, provided the option to work remotely, have also moved out of the market. For residents who remain in the market or moving in, high home and condo pricing still prohibits a significant threat of ownership to apartment leasing. San Francisco's homeownership rate ranks among the lowest in the country at under 40%. Top-tier multifamily assets have faced the most competition from recent construction. Robust absorption of new inventory during the 2010s expansion reduced vacancy among 4 & 5 Star properties to the 4% range by 19Q1, but since then, the market's unstabilized 4 & 5 Star vacancy rate has already jumped up to 19.5% as projects deliver to a slower leasing market amid an economic recession. Mid-level assets typically perform relatively well in San Francisco, as there was no shortage of demand for moderately priced options in the increasingly unaffordable market, but job losses and relocations to other cities negatively affected all segments of the market in the downturn. Vacancy among 3-Star rated assets currently registers 12.0%, while 1 & 2-Star properties have seen a slightly milder rise, up to 10.2%. Vacancy among studio apartments also reached a cyclical low in 2019 as single renters sought out less expensive options in the nation's most expensive apartment market. Since social distancing measures have been enacted, renters have favored units with more bedrooms though, most likely for home offices. Many young renters have also moved home or are working remotely from elsewhere for the time being.
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Vacancy San Francisco Multi-Family ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY
OVERALL & STABILIZED VACANCY
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Vacancy San Francisco Multi-Family VACANCY RATE
VACANCY BY BEDROOM
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Rent San Francisco Multi-Family Landlords in San Francisco were quick to respond to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak. CoStar's daily rent series shows asking rents began to fall in March. Rents had been rising along with seasonal patterns before the pandemic hit, so the downturn represented a rare reversal in trend, which nearly held through the end of 2020.
enabled by remote work in the pandemic combined with a slowdown in immigration and a weaker jobs front to reverse San Francisco's historically overwhelming demand for housing, and landlords have shown sensitivity to the change in negotiating leverage. San Francisco is a competitive market where landlords move rents quickly in correspondence with demand.
However, the slashing of asking rents in San Francisco's apartment market has subsided over the past several months. On a monthly basis, the downturn apexed in August 2020, and tapered subsequently, diminishing to negligible levels by December 2020, and even notching slightly higher in January and February 2021. Asking rents in the Marina/Pacific Heights/Presidio, Foster City/Redwood Shores, and even SoMa are beginning to rebound. These submarkets rank among the most expensive in San Francisco, which suggests that landlords are sensing high-end rental demand is climbing back.
The more recent stabalization of daily asking rents, and uptick in some submarkets coincides with a falling availability rate on CoStar's Apartments.com network, and record-high search activity. Some bargain hunters are moving back into the city now, lured back by steeply discounted rents and generous landlord concessions. Apartments in the city haven't been this affordable in years, and landlords are likely responding to a recent bounce back in leasing interest and may be finding a floor in their willingness to reduce rents even further.
The pace of year-over-year rent growth in the market, which accounts for seasonality, had already faded to negligible levels by the close of 2019 prior to the coronavirus outbreak, as fundamentals weakened. The pandemic and ensuing recession sent asking rents into negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis. Same-store rents are currently down -11.6% on a trailing-year basis, as landlords reacted dramatically to rapidly changing market conditions. The pace of rent losses in San Francisco accelerated over the late summer while asking rents conversely rebounded in most other markets across the nation. San Francisco and San Jose's ongoing declines in 2020 led them to rank as the country's most severe by far. In addition, concession offerings including free rent incentives are up dramatically. High-end apartments have been discounted most, as they face rising competition from new supply and a slow leasing environment. Lease-up velocity in the market's newest apartment projects was generally cut in half since the pandemic hit, but appears to have found lowpoint last year. Tourist driven markets like Las Vegas and Orlando saw a more severe downturn in rents initially, but San Francisco experienced ongoing decline through 2020, as did San Jose/Silicon Valley. Unemployment benefits go much further in cheaper markets, which may have aided their bounce back. Outflow from dense expensive metros across the nation and the tech exodus from the Bay Area
Over the past decade, rent growth among mid-quality 3 Star properties outperformed 1 & 2 Star, as well as 4 & 5 Star rated properties. As predominantly luxury properties were built in the development cycle, demand for middleclass housing was overwhelming. The strength of the 3 Star segment was partly attributable to stronger fundamentals and superior affordability but was aided by value-add renovations boosting rent levels. In response to the coronavirus recession, asking rents at high-end apartments have been discounted most, as they face additional competition from new supply and a slow leasing environment. Among properties rated 4 & 5 Stars, asking rents are down -16.6% year-over-year, which compares to declines of -10.6% among 3 Star rated properties, and only -4.4% among 1 & 2 Star rated properties. Affordability has partially driven the downturn in rents. On a same-store basis, asking rents rose an impressive 50% plus in the 2010s economic expansion period, leading San Francisco to become the most expensive metro in the country for renters, surpassing the New York metro area in 2012. Accounting for the recent downturn, the market's average apartment unit asking rent of $2,740 commands roughly 25% of metro's median household income close to$130,000, still a relatively high share, but down significantly from the nearly 40% it commanded in prior periods. San Francisco's mayor, London Breed is a strong proponent of building more housing to tackle the city's affordability crisis, though with historic levels of new
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Rent San Francisco Multi-Family apartment construction hitting the market, asking rents still rose sharply in the expansion cycle. In search of affordability, renters have been attracted to the metro's lower-cost submarkets in San Mateo County, across the
Bay to transit-oriented apartments in the East Bay, to the suburban North Bay, or out of the region entirely when provided the opportunity to work remotely on a permanent basis.
DAILY ASKING RENT PER SF
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Rent San Francisco Multi-Family MARKET RENT PER UNIT & RENT GROWTH
MARKET RENT PER UNIT BY BEDROOM
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Rent San Francisco Multi-Family 4 & 5 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
San Francisco
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Appliance Structural
Other
Total
$1.20
$1.54
$1.08
$0.98
$1.86
$1.77
$0.70
$2.77
$0.17
$1.32
$1.38
$14.77
Bayview/Visitacion…
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$1.05
$2.05
$1.82
$0.89
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.27
Civic Center/Tender…
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$1.05
$2.05
$1.82
$0.89
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.27
Daly City/Brisbane
$1.35
$1.58
$1.20
$0.91
$1.70
$1.82
$0.46
$2.78
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$14.71
Downtown San Fra…
$1.12
$1.53
$1.04
$1.02
$1.99
$1.78
$0.86
$2.67
$0.16
$1.29
$1.36
$14.82
Foster City/Redwoo…
$1.35
$1.58
$1.20
$0.91
$1.70
$1.82
$0.46
$2.78
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$14.71
Haight-Ashbury/Cas… $1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$1.05
$2.05
$1.82
$0.89
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.27
Marina/Pacific Heig…
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$1.05
$2.05
$1.82
$0.89
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.27
Mission Bay/China…
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$0.95
$1.74
$1.82
$0.64
$3.03
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$14.87
Pacifica
$1.45
$1.58
$1.24
$0.97
$1.83
$1.82
$0.49
$2.82
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.11
Redwood City/Menl…
$1.20
$1.34
$1.09
$0.83
$1.51
$1.53
$0.42
$2.34
$0.14
$1.11
$1.22
$12.73
Richmond/Western…
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$1.05
$2.05
$1.82
$0.89
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.27
S San Francisco/Sa…
$1.35
$1.58
$1.20
$0.91
$1.70
$1.82
$0.46
$2.78
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$14.71
San Mateo/Burlinga…
$1.33
$1.35
$1.19
$0.90
$1.68
$1.54
$0.45
$2.75
$0.14
$1.33
$1.39
$14.05
South Of Market
$1.15
$1.58
$1.05
$0.97
$1.81
$1.82
$0.70
$2.97
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$14.96
Sunset/Lakeshore
$1.15
$1.58
$0.94
$1.09
$2.05
$1.82
$0.95
$2.77
$0.17
$1.34
$1.40
$15.26
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
3 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$1.04
$1.05
$1.00
$0.91
$1.73
$1.26
$0.64
$2.52
$0.07
$1.20
$1.27
$12.69
Bayview/Visitacion…
$0.96
$1.41
$1.00
$1.00
$1.95
$1.68
$0.85
$2.64
$0.06
$1.28
$1.34
$14.17
Civic Center/Tender…
$0.95
$1.39
$0.99
$0.98
$1.92
$1.66
$0.83
$2.58
$0.06
$1.25
$1.31
$13.92
Daly City/Brisbane
$1.24
$0.64
$1.11
$0.84
$1.56
$0.71
$0.42
$2.51
$0.06
$1.21
$1.28
$11.58
Downtown San Fra…
$0.96
$1.40
$1.00
$0.99
$1.93
$1.67
$0.83
$2.60
$0.07
$1.26
$1.32
$14.03
Foster City/Redwoo…
$1.29
$0.73
$1.15
$0.87
$1.62
$0.82
$0.44
$2.66
$0.07
$1.29
$1.34
$12.28
Haight-Ashbury/Cas… $0.95
$1.38
$0.99
$0.98
$1.91
$1.66
$0.82
$2.56
$0.06
$1.24
$1.31
$13.86
Marina/Pacific Heig…
$0.92
$1.31
$0.95
$0.92
$1.76
$1.60
$0.74
$2.33
$0.06
$1.11
$1.21
$12.91
Mission Bay/China…
$1.04
$1.00
$1.00
$0.91
$1.66
$1.68
$0.61
$2.88
$0.06
$1.28
$1.34
$13.46
Outlying San Mateo…
$1.28
$0.64
$1.15
$0.87
$1.62
$0.72
$0.43
$2.65
$0.06
$1.28
$1.34
$12.04
Pacifica
$1.44
$0.96
$1.21
$0.97
$1.83
$0.96
$0.48
$2.73
$0.09
$1.30
$1.35
$13.32
Redwood City/Menl…
$1.10
$0.63
$1.02
$0.76
$1.38
$0.71
$0.39
$2.18
$0.06
$0.96
$1.09
$10.28
Richmond/Western…
$0.94
$1.37
$0.98
$0.97
$1.88
$1.65
$0.80
$2.51
$0.06
$1.21
$1.29
$13.66
S San Francisco/Sa…
$1.24
$0.64
$1.11
$0.84
$1.56
$0.71
$0.42
$2.50
$0.06
$1.20
$1.28
$11.56
San Mateo/Burlinga…
$1.23
$0.71
$1.11
$0.84
$1.55
$0.79
$0.42
$2.48
$0.07
$1.19
$1.27
$11.66
South Of Market
$1.07
$1.41
$1.03
$0.96
$1.79
$1.75
$0.70
$2.88
$0.12
$1.31
$1.37
$14.39
Sunset/Lakeshore
$0.56
$1.14
$0.50
$1.04
$1.92
$1.68
$0.91
$2.60
$0.07
$1.26
$1.32
$13.00
San Francisco
Appliance Structural
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
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Rent San Francisco Multi-Family 1 & 2 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Operating Expenses Market / Cluster
San Francisco
Capital Expenditures
Mgmt.
Admin.
Payroll
Water
Utilities
Maint.
Insurance
Taxes
Appliance Structural
Other
Total
$0.74
$0.75
$0.71
$0.60
$0.97
$0.99
$0.32
$1.11
$0.06
$0.44
$0.70
$7.39
Bayview/Visitacion…
$0.77
$0.89
$0.74
$0.61
$1.00
$1.30
$0.34
$1.12
$0.06
$0.46
$0.70
$7.99
Civic Center/Tender…
$0.79
$0.95
$0.77
$0.65
$1.10
$1.34
$0.39
$1.28
$0.06
$0.55
$0.77
$8.65
Daly City/Brisbane
$0.76
$0.61
$0.73
$0.59
$0.94
$0.68
$0.31
$1.03
$0.06
$0.41
$0.67
$6.79
Downtown San Fra…
$0.77
$0.90
$0.75
$0.62
$1.01
$1.31
$0.35
$1.14
$0.06
$0.47
$0.71
$8.09
Foster City/Redwoo…
$0.79
$0.61
$0.76
$0.61
$0.98
$0.68
$0.32
$1.13
$0.06
$0.46
$0.71
$7.11
Haight-Ashbury/Cas… $0.76
$0.87
$0.73
$0.59
$0.95
$1.29
$0.32
$1.05
$0.06
$0.42
$0.68
$7.72
Marina/Pacific Heig…
$0.76
$0.87
$0.73
$0.60
$0.96
$1.29
$0.32
$1.06
$0.06
$0.42
$0.68
$7.75
Mission Bay/China…
$0.76
$0.86
$0.73
$0.59
$0.94
$1.28
$0.31
$1.03
$0.06
$0.41
$0.67
$7.64
Outlying San Mateo…
$0.76
$0.61
$0.73
$0.59
$0.94
$0.68
$0.31
$1.03
$0.06
$0.41
$0.67
$6.79
Pacifica
$0.77
$0.70
$0.73
$0.59
$0.95
$0.64
$0.31
$1.05
$0.06
$0.42
$0.67
$6.89
Redwood City/Menl…
$0.75
$0.61
$0.72
$0.58
$0.93
$0.68
$0.31
$1.05
$0.06
$0.40
$0.66
$6.75
Richmond/Western…
$0.77
$0.89
$0.74
$0.61
$0.98
$1.30
$0.33
$1.10
$0.06
$0.44
$0.69
$7.91
S San Francisco/Sa…
$0.76
$0.61
$0.73
$0.59
$0.94
$0.68
$0.31
$1.03
$0.06
$0.41
$0.67
$6.79
San Mateo/Burlinga…
$0.81
$0.62
$0.77
$0.62
$1.00
$0.68
$0.32
$1.18
$0.06
$0.49
$0.73
$7.28
South Of Market
$0.86
$0.93
$0.83
$0.71
$1.21
$1.42
$0.43
$1.70
$0.06
$0.72
$0.91
$9.78
Sunset/Lakeshore
$0.48
$0.86
$0.42
$0.59
$0.94
$1.28
$0.31
$1.03
$0.06
$0.41
$0.67
$7.05
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
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Construction San Francisco Multi-Family A construction boom hit San Francisco in the 2010s expansion cycle, and due to the multi-year timeline required to build large apartment complexes in the city, deliveries will remain elevated through 2021 and beyond as the projects already underway reach completion. The pace of completions in the market peaked in 2016 and 2017. Over 3,500 units were delivered in each of those years, and supply growth will subdue, but remain substantial in the immediate future as 4,108 units are currently under construction metro-wide. Over 2,600 units were completed in 2020 amid the pandemic, and roughly half of the inventory currently underway, over 1,700 units are forecasted for delivery in 2021. Active under construction activity did fall in 2020, by nearly 2,000 units from over 5,700 as deliveries outpaced construction starts. This trend will likely continue through 2021 as the construction pipeline empties and developers pause on initiating new projects. New development feasibility has taken a hit with asking rents slashed back to 2014 levels, while construction costs continue to climb higher. Over the past decade, more than 120 primarily high-rise and mid-rise market-rate properties containing a total of over 22,000 for-rent apartment units have been delivered to the market. Most of the new developments are large in size, containing over 100 units each. The recent development wave dwarfs construction activity during the dot com boom by far. The new inventory was well received by the market in the expansion era. Most properties leased-out within a year of completion, and offered tenant concessions in order to do so. The coronavirus pandemic has slowed lease-up though, and attaining stabilization will be a more challenging undertaking in 2021 as a slow pace of job growth and the option to work remotely from nearly anywhere plague renter demand in San Francisco.
Geographically, development has been concentrated in the city's southern submarkets, including South of Market and Mission Bay/China Basin/Potrero Hill, from which residents can more quickly access freeways and Caltrain, which provides transportation to major employment hubs in the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and San Jose. These submarkets have also been extremely popular with growing tech companies. In the Peninsula, most construction has been concentrated in San Mateo and Redwood City, which emerged as a desirable location for transit-oriented development. With traffic congestion restricting movement throughout the Bay Area and a growing percentage of renters preferring public transportation and ride-share over car ownership, development near Caltrain and BART stations has been in vogue. Although recent development has been strong in comparison to historical standards, San Francisco is generally more insulated from supply risk than most markets in the country. Stringent zoning, costly affordable housing requirements, NIMBY objection, and a lack of available land make the development process in San Francisco more arduous than in the vast majority of U.S. cities. As a result, supply growth over the past 30 years falls below most major U.S. markets on a percentage basis, despite strong demand for more housing. Currently, under construction inventory measures just over 2% of existing inventory, which compares to a stronger development rate in excess of 3% for the nation. Construction starts have dwindled over the past 3 years, with less than 1,000 units initiating in 2020, and will likely slow to a trickle moving forward. As a result, supply growth could decline sharply in several years, following the delivery of the current projects under construction.
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Construction San Francisco Multi-Family DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS
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Under Construction Properties San Francisco Multi-Family Properties
Units
Percent of Inventory
Avg. No. Units
34
4,280
2.5%
126
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES
UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
Rating
Units
Stories
Start
Complete
1
Trinity Place 1177 Market St
501
17
Aug 2018
Aug 2021
2
Chorus 30 Otis St
416
20
Aug 2019
Aug 2021
372
7
Sep 2019
Dec 2021
4
Highwater 1405 El Camino Real
350
8
Jan 2019
Jun 2021
5
Middle Plaza 500 El Camino Real
215
-
Apr 2020
Apr 2022
186
13
Oct 2019
Nov 2021
185
5
Mar 2019
Jun 2021
3
6 7
1140 Harrison St
1028 Market St Alexan Bryant 955-975 Bryant St
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Developer/Owner
Trinity Management Services The Sangiacomo Family Trust Align Real Estate Ganz Investment Company The Hanover Company The Hanover Company Greystar Real Estate Partners Greystar Stanford Land, Buildings, & Real… Stanford University Tidewater Capital War Horse Cities LLC TDP Bay Area Partners The Carlyle Group
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Under Construction Properties San Francisco Multi-Family UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
8 9
550 Oak Grove 988 El Camino Real
Rating
Units
Stories
Start
Complete
183
-
May 2018
Apr 2021
172
6
Jan 2020
Sep 2022
10
SoMa II 667 Folsom St
171
13
Feb 2021
Feb 2023
11
Altitude Apartments 150 Airport Blvd
157
5
May 2019
Dec 2022
12
The Tenderloin 361 Turk St
146
8
Aug 2019
Sep 2021
13
HQ 1532 Harrison St
136
7
Jun 2018
Mar 2021
129
5
Dec 2020
Oct 2022
128
-
Jan 2021
Jun 2021
126
12
Mar 2020
Jul 2021
125
5
Mar 2020
Jun 2021
100
9
Sep 2019
Sep 2021
14 15 16 17 18
1298 Howard St 920 Bayswater Ave 830 Eddy St 353 Main Street Apartme… 353 Main St 1740-1770 Market St
19
The Morgan 2901 E Kyne St
82
4
Sep 2019
Mar 2021
20
Azara San Mateo 1650 S Delaware St
64
5
Feb 2021
Feb 2023
21
Tenderloin Coliving 229 Ellis St
55
-
Jan 2019
Mar 2021
54
6
Feb 2020
Jul 2022
42
6
Jan 2018
Mar 2021
24
345 6th Street 345 6th St
36
9
Mar 2018
May 2021
25
Ghirardelli Square 915 North Point
34
4
Sep 2019
Mar 2021
25
4
Dec 2019
Feb 2022
24
6
Mar 2019
Jul 2021
18
4
Sep 2019
Mar 2021
22 23
26 27 28
1201 Sutter St 1174-1178 Folsom St
406 E 3rd Ave 603 Tennessee St 1525 San Carlos Ave
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Developer/Owner
Presidio Bay Ventures Greenheart Land Company Summer Hill Housing Group Summer Hill Housing Group Equity Residential Northern Calif… Equity Residential Fairfield Residential Company Fairfield Residential Company, L… Forge Development Partners Forge Development Partners Build, Inc. Build, Inc. Worldco Company Fore Property Company Fore Property Company Build, Inc. Build, Inc. ROEM Development Corporation Mark J. Sontag MD American Realty & Construction,… Wilson Meany Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC Four Corners Properties Four Corners Properties Starcity Properties, Inc. Dolmen Property Group, Inc. Dolmen Property Group, Inc. Transworld Construction, Inc. Transworld Construction, Inc. SIA Consulting Corp. Atlas Property Group JS Sullivan Development JS Sullivan Development Windy Hill Property Ventures, Inc. Windy Hill Property Ventures, Inc. Natoma Architects, Inc. Arcon Construction Corp Dan & Matt Nejasmich
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Sales San Francisco Multi-Family Investors have historically been attracted to San Francisco's sound fundamentals and growth prospects. Development opportunities are limited, which gives buyers confidence that demand will outweigh supply in the long term, leading to improved operating income. Even at the market's prevailing low yields, as a global gateway city, San Francisco still attracts institutional and foreign investment. However, the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic did give some lenders and buyers pause. Sales activity in 2020 slowed by roughly two-thirds from 2019's pace. Roughly 160 office deals closed in 2020, in a market where at least 350 deals had closed in each of the prior nine years. Sales volume in 2020 fell by roughly an equal magnitude - by two-thirds from 2019's pre-pandemic level. Only three high end 4 & 5 Star rated assets traded, a marked change from activity in the prior two years. Very few sales over $10 million have closed since the pandemic hit, and the economic recession likely killed some pending deals. Institutional investor interest has shifted dramatically out of dense submarkets in the core of San Francisco but held up better in suburban areas like San Mateo/Burlingame that have been viewed more favorable amid the health crisis and social distancing. San Mateo/Burlingame ranked second in the metro for sales volume following Redwood City/Menlo Park in 2020. By nature of its fragmented and aged housing stock, opportunities to acquire core investment properties in San Francisco are generally limited. Public REITs including Equity Residential, Essex Property Trust, and Avalon Bay Communities and locallybased private firms such as Stockbridge Capital, Veritas Investments, Maximus Real Estate Partners, and Wilson Meany represent the market's largest apartment owners. National developers Lennar and Crescent Heights are also major players. Competition among investors with access to low-cost capital drove asset pricing higher and led to cap rate compression over the expansion cycle. Due to the strong buyer demand, the market's average cap rate of just 3.7% ranks lowest among all markets across the country. The market average cap rate bottomed in 2019 though, showing just a slight drift higher in 2020. In addition to cap rate compression over the past
decade, rapid rent growth led pricing substantially higher. San Francisco's average market price, which is based on the estimated value of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred, increased from a low of roughly $240,000/unit in 2009 to a high of $640,000 in 2019, but is sliding lower from that peak at $580,000/unit currently. San Francisco is still clearly the most expensive multifamily market across the country, with average pricing exceeding the nation's second most expensive metro, San Jose, by an impressive 35%. There are only a few small pockets of affordable multifamily housing in San Francisco's densely built-out geographically constrained peninsula. Many lower-wage workers commute into the city from more affordable areas in the region, and even from Sacramento and the Central Valley. CoStar expects cap rates to face slight and brief upward pressure over the next few quarters amid restrained credit conditions and reduced volume. Valuations will remain sensitive to investor sentiment, and sellers may find that buyer uncertainty impacts underwriting assumptions, bids, and negotiations. Pricing power will likely be restrained as buyers and lenders remain on the sidelines to maintain caution during the early stages of this new economic period. Moving forward, CoStar's forecast model calls for a further decline in pricing due to the rising cap rates and falling rents. Pricing in the market fell by 28% over two years following the global financial crisis in 2007 and the current downturn in pricing is forecasted to be nearly as severe. Recent key deals in the market are attributable to large private equity funds and REITs buying a relatively new crop of institutional quality assets, sold by developers who capitalized on sound property performance and robust investor appetite. For example, in one of the largest deals across the country in 2019, GID Investments acquired the 2017-built Blu Harbor Apartments in Redwood City for $325.6 million, or $810,000/unit, from the property's developers. Representing the largest single-asset deal of 2020, Palo-Alto based Pacific Urban Residential acquired the Skyline Terrace Apartments in Burlingame for $108 million dollars. The purchase price was agreed upon prior to the pandemic, but the region's long-term stability propelled Pacific Urban Residential to finalize the deal. The seller, Equity Residential acquired the complex a decade earlier for just over $52 million, which exemplifies
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Sales San Francisco Multi-Family how even sellers in a downturn typically realize strong gains in San Francisco over their holding period. Despite the low initial yields that acquisition opportunities in San Francisco still command, perceived long-term
value among buyers remains high. San Francisco's multifamily assets have generated strong rewards in the past. Despite the recent downturn in pricing, San Francisco has outperformed most U.S. markets in terms of investment return over the last 40 years.
SALES VOLUME & MARKET SALE PRICE PER UNIT
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Sales San Francisco Multi-Family MARKET CAP RATE
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Sales Past 12 Months San Francisco Multi-Family Sale Comparables
Avg. Price/Unit (thous.)
Average Price (mil.)
Average Vacancy at Sale
139
$456
$8.4
11.0%
SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS
SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS Sales Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
Sale Price
$200,000
$8,417,527
$3,300,000
$167,523,293
Price/Unit
$14,285
$456,154
$435,000
$958,333
Cap Rate
1.3%
4.1%
4.1%
6.2%
0%
11.0%
8.3%
80.0%
Vacancy Rate At Sale Time Since Sale in Months
0.1
6.2
6.3
12.0
Property Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
Property Size in Units
5
18
7
463
Number of Floors
1
2
3
10
Average Unit SF
45
842
793
2,146
1890
1939
1936
2019
Year Built Star Rating
2.2
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Sales Past 12 Months San Francisco Multi-Family RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES Property Information Property Name/Address
1
Indigo 675 Bradford St
2
Pacific Bay Vistas 2 Pacific Bay Cir
3
Skyline Terrace Apartments 3133 Frontera Way
4
MODE 2089 Pacific Blvd
5
Encore 855 Veterans Blvd
6
Delphine on Diamond 5285 Diamond Heights Blvd
7
Keystone Apartments 1369 Hyde St
8
Pacifica Park 670 Hickey Blvd
9 10 11 12 13 14
2171 Pacific Ave 2101 California St 25 Capra Way 2845 Pierce St 3618 Alameda de las Pulgas Devonshire 1 Devonshire Blvd
15 16 17 18 19 20
1244-1250 California St 3014 Clay St 3150 Franklin St 1690 Greenwich St 510 Stockton St 342 Highland Ave
Sale Information
Rating
Yr Built
Units
Vacancy
Sale Date
Price
Price/Unit
Price/SF
-
2016
463
15.3%
9/8/2020
$167,523,293
$361,821
$1,094
-
1987
308
4.9%
9/8/2020
$113,139,340
$367,335
$537
-
1967
138
11.6%
5/1/2020
$108,000,000
$782,608
$630
-
2014
111
17.1%
11/24/2020
$80,050,000
$721,171
$736
-
2019
90
10.0%
11/24/2020
$73,500,000
$816,666
$817
-
1972
154
12.3%
12/29/2020
$72,500,000
$470,779
$451
-
1911
82
10.7%
12/29/2020
$43,000,000
$524,390
$752
-
1977
104
3.9%
9/8/2020
$19,319,271
$185,762
$542
-
1965
20
40.0%
10/28/2020
$12,230,000
$611,500
$587
-
1923
15
6.7%
6/1/2020
$11,000,000
$733,333
$684
-
1927
17
5.9%
5/14/2020
$10,250,000
$602,941
$562
-
1924
12
8.3%
3/11/2020
$9,750,000
$812,500
$827
-
1964
15
6.7%
8/26/2020
$9,000,000
$600,000
$1,004
-
1965
15
13.3%
3/24/2020
$8,430,000
$562,000
$709
-
1907
12
16.7%
6/9/2020
$8,025,000
$668,750
$478
-
1963
12
8.3%
11/9/2020
$7,920,000
$660,000
$640
-
1924
12
16.7%
3/19/2020
$7,850,000
$654,166
$714
-
1936
15
6.7%
6/15/2020
$7,400,000
$493,333
$548
-
1920
17
5.9%
5/14/2020
$7,300,000
$429,411
$531
-
1971
16
6.3%
7/16/2020
$7,250,000
$453,125
$279
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Economy San Francisco Multi-Family San Francisco's economy grew rapidly in the 2010's expansion cycle and maintained strength heading into 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Annual job growth prevailed at 3% in February, but social distancing measures have caused significant economic disruption, leading to the sharpest employment downturn on record and a migration out of the city. Layoffs and furloughs in the hospitality, restaurant, retail, and entertainment sectors were severe. Professional employment sectors were also hit in the downturn, though not as sharply. A modest recovery of lost jobs ensued in May and gained steam in June as the measured reopening of San Francisco's economy helped drive a rebound. However, plans to reopen businesses were stalled as coronavirus cases climbed again. Outdoor dining and indoor retail were allowed, but the reopening of salons, bars, and museums initially planned for late June was paused, and the pace of job recovery has been uneven and weak as a result. Hotels, indoor malls, gyms, indoor restaurants, and hair and nail salons were finally allowed to open at a limited capacity in September. But, a resurgence of coronavirus cases in December led to a renewed shutdown of establishments, including all restaurant dining including outdoor patios and parklets, as well as nonessential office work. Public schools are distance learning, while entertainment venues including movie theaters, night clubs, and music halls have remained shuttered since the pandemic hit. Total employment in the metro division is down 9.1%, or by 109,000 as of December's jobs report released in January, while employment within typical office-using job sectors is still down 2.1% or by 10,200, from their prepandemic peaks reached in February. Start-ups in hardhit segments of the economy have slashed headcounts considerably, while mainstays like Google have slowed their rate of hiring and real estate expansions as ad revenue declines. Most industries are recovering now, though as the economy slowly reopens. Unemployment had fallen below 2% prior to the pandemic, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Job opportunities were abundant and outnumbered qualified job seekers, but job listings have fallen dramatically over the past few months, and unemployment skyrocketed into the double-digits in the Springtime, ticking back to 5.4% as of November, but rising in December to 6.1%. The labor force has declined slightly since the pandemic hit due to a migration out of
the market. The trajectory of San Francisco's economy and commercial real estate markets will depend on how widely the virus and its variants spread, how quickly the vaccine is distributed, how long containment policies like social distancing need to be maintained, and how quickly those with lost jobs can find employment again. On the positive side, Oxford Economics projects that San Francisco's economic recovery will outpace most other markets due to its industry makeup. San Francisco does not rely as heavily on leisure & hospitality employment as Las Vegas, Orlando, or New Orleans does, but it is a popular tourist destination and will be negatively impacted by a slowdown in travel. Large tech firms reliant on advertising like Facebook and Google saw lower revenues in 20Q2, but have seen a rebound to new record levels. Google and Facebook capture the majority of all internet ad revenue and are well-positioned for an economic rebound. Internet ad revenue was rising at a 17% annual growth rate before the pandemic hit, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Some digital products have seen soaring demand amid the pandemic. For example, communications platforms like Zoom Video and Microsoft Teams have become necessary tools for business survival, and Netflix has seen an influx of new subscribers. Business software investment growth overall has slowed a touch but continues to rise through the downturn, while ecommerce retail sales have spiked. Venture capitalists have invested heavily in locallybased start-ups, as well as mature, but still privatelyheld "unicorn" companies valued over $1 billion. Venture capital funding remained fairly robust in 2020 all things considered, but has faded from 2019 and 2018's recordsetting pace, according to PwC's MoneyTree Report, and may decline further if an uncertain economic environment shakes confidence among investors. A handful of VC firms are leaving for Texas, but Silicon Valley will remain the leading capital provider for start-ups as both are entrenched in the area, and feed off of its educational institutions, and mega tech and biotech firms. Locally based Okta, Roku, and Mulesoft each went public in 2017 with successful results, as did DocuSign and Survey Monkey in 2018. However, a number of Bay Area companies that went public in the 2010's economic expansion period are now trading below their initial IPO
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Economy San Francisco Multi-Family price. Fitbit, Lending Club, Cloudera, Dropbox, and Eventbrite have all seen their valuations deteriorate since going public, and 2020 was particularly rough for tech unicorns going public. The IPO's of Lyft, Uber, and Slack were considered flops, while market valuations for Pinterest and PagerDuty have declined after initially rising. Some local start-ups like Zoom Video did launch public offerings that performed well in 2019, but the majority were disappointing as high private market valuations, profitability concerns and the prospect of tighter regulations weighed on investors. AirBnB went public in December 2020 despite a loss in bookings due to the pandemic. AirBnB secured two billion-dollar loans in April at a slashed internal valuation as financial losses mounted, and laid off 1,900 employees or roughly a quarter of its global workforce in May. The travel company's stock soared at the onset of 2021 though, and they announced an expansion to Atlanta most recently.AirBnB's local staff had grown larger than 3,000 before the recent cuts. Despite the notable downturns among several highprofile newcomers, the NASDAQ index, which is heavily dominated by San Francisco Bay Area-based tech companies and correlates with local office using employment historically, has already recovered its coronavirus pandemic and oil shock sell-off losses of early 2020. Large-scale expansion plans from several publicly traded technology companies appear to have slowed, yet remain intact, though it will be critical to watch how the fallout from the pandemic and mobile work adoption affects the tech sector and local real estate demand moving forward. Emblematic of San Francisco's transition to a tech industry-led economy, Salesforce surpassed Wells Fargo as the city's largest employer in 2018. The customer relationship management software company continued to grow its headcount after taking occupancy in the recently delivered Salesforce Tower, but in a sign of the times, announced the adoption of remote work options. Salesforce now employs more than 9,000 based in San Francisco. Led by tech firms, roughly 350,000 jobs were created in the metro division in the 2010's economic expansion period, including more than 35,000 jobs added in 2019. On a national scale, coronavirus recession job losses wiped out all gains made in the 2010's expansion cycle, but job growth was so strong in San Francisco over the past decade, the market did not give up all of its expansion cycle gains in the recent downturn.
Facebook has added capacity for well over 5,000 employees at 181 Fremont Street and Park Tower at Transbay, two new skyscrapers recently completed in the South Financial District. Lyft, Dropbox, and Affirm more than doubled their headcounts in the past several years. Uber had aggressively increased its San Francisco headcount to more than 5,000, but rising profitability concerns led to recent job cuts, including several hundred throughout the Bay Area in the second half of 2019, and the elimination of 6,700 positions globally or 25% of its workforce and shuttering of 25 offices including Pier 70's in 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic and economic downfall that hit the company. In the finance sector, Wells Fargo's employment in the Bay Area has declined moderately for several years. Wells closed its historic Crocker building branch in late 2019 and may eventually move its headquarters out of town. Charles Schwab has also relocated many positions to lower-cost markets and reassigned its headquarters to Dallas effective 2021, in conjunction with its acquisition of TD Ameritrade, but still maintains a downtown office. Fintech start-ups like SoFi, Affirm, and Lending Club had been a bright spot, boosting employment within the sector, which was gaining momentum heading into 2020 since stagnating in 2017. However, even financial service firms have suffered losses in the coronavirus -pandemic recession. Lending Club laid off 460 employees in April 2020, accounting for 30% of its workforce. The local finance sector was devastated in the dot-com crash and slowly recovered from 2007–09 credit crisis consolidations. Employment in financial activities finally rose above its 2007 prerecession peak late in the 2010's economic expansion cycle, but never returned to levels achieved in the 1990's. San Francisco's economy was roaring ahead into 2020, as it typically does in expansion periods. Professional and business services - by far the market's largest employment and office using sector - was expanding by more than 3% annually before the coronavirus pandemic hit in March. Since the city's early gold rush founding, San Francisco has experienced rapid booms and busts, and the pandemic recession has once again impacted the local economy sharply, as history repeats itself. Based on rapid rent and pricing gains during the expansion, pockets of commercial real estate contained a heightened vulnerability to a downfall.
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Economy San Francisco Multi-Family Access to cheap capital and an expanding global economy led by technological advancements drove Bay Area commercial real estate markets to new heights over the past decade. Changes in trade policy and slowing global growth presented headwinds to the economy in the mature phases of the expansion cycle, but the lingering shutdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic has sent the country into a deep and rapid recession. The success of mitigation efforts and federal bailouts, in addition to behavior changes in response to the pandemic, will have a profound impact on national economic recovery and commercial real estate demand.
Real estate investment trusts have stockpiled cash amid the uncertain economic times and lenders were swamped by small-business owners looking for relief as emergency actions in response to the coronavirus closed down tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, theaters, gyms and stores across the country. Business closures in San Francisco are already elevated well above that of other metro's according to Yelp, and the Bay Area is still slowly opening in the new year following a second surge of coronavirus cases. Non-essential workers are advised to remain away from offices again, and most are planning for a potential return in the summer of 2021 at this point. We will be updating our analysis as more information becomes available.
SAN FRANCISCO EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS Current Level
12 Month Change
10 Year Change
5 Year Forecast
NAICS Industry
Jobs
LQ
Market
US
Market
US
Market
US
Manufacturing
37
0.4
-6.31%
-4.05%
0.51%
0.59%
0.56%
0.53%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
142
0.7
-7.09%
-3.01%
1.29%
0.86%
1.35%
0.61%
73
0.6
-6.10%
-3.10%
-0.05%
0.42%
1.28%
0.70%
Financial Activities
90
1.3
0.88%
-0.99%
2.55%
1.29%
0.09%
0.74%
Government
118
0.7
-9.83%
-5.42%
-0.12%
-0.35%
1.87%
0.99%
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
42
0.7
-3.38%
-3.37%
4.49%
2.59%
1.80%
1.14%
Education and Health Services
141
0.8
-4.11%
-3.89%
2.23%
1.56%
1.82%
1.87%
Professional and Business Services
291
1.8
-2.31%
-4.23%
4.84%
1.87%
1.98%
1.63%
Information
95
4.6
-6.15%
-6.86%
9.44%
0.02%
4.39%
2.28%
Leisure and Hospitality
106
1.0
-29.33%
-18.15%
-0.66%
0.35%
7.32%
4.38%
Other Services
37
0.9
-13.47%
-6.68%
0.66%
0.33%
2.92%
1.37%
1,098
1.0
-8.01%
-5.55%
2.51%
0.92%
2.48%
1.49%
Retail Trade
Total Employment
Source: Oxford Economics LQ = Location Quotient
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Economy San Francisco Multi-Family YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH
Source: Oxford Economics
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Current Level Demographic Category
12 Month Change
10 Year Change
5 Year Forecast
Metro
US
Metro
US
Metro
US
Metro
US
1,656,102
330,665,094
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.5%
Households
627,954
123,592,047
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.3%
0.5%
Median Household Income
$127,226
$69,274
1.4%
4.4%
4.6%
3.3%
3.9%
2.1%
Labor Force
997,831
160,791,656
-5.2%
-2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
2.2%
0.8%
5.9%
6.7%
3.8%
3.0%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-
-
Population
Unemployment
Source: Oxford Economics
POPULATION GROWTH
LABOR FORCE GROWTH
INCOME GROWTH
Source: Oxford Economics
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Submarkets San Francisco Multi-Family SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKETS
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Submarkets San Francisco Multi-Family SUBMARKET INVENTORY Inventory No.
Submarket
12 Month Deliveries
Under Construction
Bldgs
Units
% Market
Rank
Bldgs
Units
Percent
Rank
Bldgs
Units
Percent
Rank
1
Bayview/Visitacion Valley
77
1,020
0.6%
15
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
2
Civic Center/Tenderloin
215
10,190
6.0%
8
1
303
3.0%
3
3
387
3.8%
4
3
Daly City/Brisbane
4
Downtown San Francisco
5
Foster City/Redwood Sho…
30
6
Haight-Ashbury/Castro/N…
1,646
7
Marina/Pacific Heights/Pr…
886
8
Mission Bay/China Basin…
9
Outlying San Mateo County
10
Pacifica
11
Redwood City/Menlo Park
12
Richmond/Western Addition
1,349
13
S San Francisco/San Bru…
14
San Mateo/Burlingame
15 16 17
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
179
7,005
4.1%
11
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
1,512
23,017
13.5%
1
0
0
0%
-
2
88
0.4%
9
5,704
3.4%
13
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
18,188
10.7%
3
6
1,060
5.8%
1
4
658
3.6%
3
14,008
8.2%
6
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
67
6,671
3.9%
12
3
368
5.5%
2
3
216
3.2%
6
29
269
0.2%
17
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
79
2,512
1.5%
14
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
827
15,233
9.0%
5
0
0
0%
-
4
873
5.7%
2
16,955
10.0%
4
2
123
0.7%
6
1
126
0.7%
8
532
7,413
4.4%
10
0
0
0%
-
1
157
2.1%
7
1,183
20,504
12.1%
2
3
302
1.5%
4
8
344
1.7%
5
South Of Market
100
11,513
6.8%
7
2
284
2.5%
5
6
1,251
10.9%
1
Sunset/Lakeshore
503
9,102
5.4%
9
0
0
0%
-
1
8
0.1%
10
1
624
0.4%
16
0
0
0%
-
0
0
0%
-
SUBMARKET RENT Asking Rents No.
Effective Rents
Market
Per Unit
Per SF
Rank
Yr. Growth
Per Unit
Per SF
Rank
Yr. Growth
Concession
Rank
1
Bayview/Visitacion Valley
$2,146
$2.69
15
-12.5%
$2,128
$2.66
15
-13.0%
0.8%
14
2
Civic Center/Tenderloin
$2,334
$4.11
2
-11.2%
$2,293
$4.07
2
-11.8%
1.8%
7
3
Daly City/Brisbane
$2,160
$3.19
12
-10.3%
$2,130
$3.14
12
-11.0%
1.4%
9
4
Downtown San Francisco
$2,551
$4.23
1
-8.0%
$2,524
$4.19
1
-8.4%
1.1%
11
5
Foster City/Redwood Sho…
$2,874
$3.26
10
-14.1%
$2,809
$3.19
10
-14.8%
2.3%
3
6
Haight-Ashbury/Castro/N…
$2,891
$4.08
3
-9.3%
$2,747
$3.91
4
-12.5%
5.0%
2
7
Marina/Pacific Heights/Pr…
$3,539
$4.07
4
-1.0%
$3,354
$3.83
5
-6.2%
5.2%
1
8
Mission Bay/China Basin…
$3,303
$3.86
6
-18.8%
$3,234
$3.78
6
-20.2%
2.1%
4
9
Outlying San Mateo County
$2,011
$2.10
16
1.5%
$1,994
$2.08
17
1.3%
0.9%
13
10
Pacifica
$2,574
$3.32
9
-7.8%
$2,554
$3.30
9
-8.4%
0.8%
15
11
Redwood City/Menlo Park
$2,784
$3.35
8
-9.6%
$2,746
$3.30
8
-10.4%
1.4%
10
12
Richmond/Western Addition
$2,375
$3.72
7
-10.8%
$2,351
$3.68
7
-11.3%
1.0%
12
13
S San Francisco/San Bru…
$2,766
$3.09
14
-9.8%
$2,726
$3.04
14
-9.4%
1.4%
8
14
San Mateo/Burlingame
$2,609
$3.14
13
-10.8%
$2,562
$3.08
13
-11.7%
1.8%
6
15
South Of Market
$3,045
$4.02
5
-21.5%
$2,984
$3.94
3
-21.9%
2.0%
5
16
Sunset/Lakeshore
$2,646
$3.19
11
-13.2%
$2,638
$3.19
11
-12.7%
0.3%
16
17
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
$2,494
$2.10
17
0%
$2,494
$2.10
16
0.1%
0%
-
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 26
Submarkets San Francisco Multi-Family SUBMARKET VACANCY & ABSORPTION Vacancy No.
Submarket
12 Month Absorption
Units
Percent
Rank
Units
% of Inv
Rank
Construc. Ratio
68
6.6%
1
(26)
-2.6%
3
-
1,302
12.8%
13
(410)
-4.0%
9
-
801
11.4%
8
(333)
-4.8%
7
-
2,728
11.9%
10
(1,319)
-5.7%
17
-
7.4%
3
(213)
-3.7%
6
-
12.2%
11
(368)
-2.0%
8
-
9.8%
4
(467)
-3.3%
11
-
1,057
15.8%
14
(93)
-1.4%
5
-
31
11.6%
9
(11)
-4.2%
2
-
2
(87)
-3.5%
4
-
12
(789)
-5.2%
12
-
7
(826)
-4.9%
13
-
10.5%
5
(411)
-5.6%
10
-
10.6%
6
(851)
-4.2%
14
-
2,749
23.9%
16
(1,237)
-10.7%
15
-
1,782
19.6%
15
(1,281)
-14.1%
16
-
0
0%
-
0
0%
-
-
1
Bayview/Visitacion Valley
2
Civic Center/Tenderloin
3
Daly City/Brisbane
4
Downtown San Francisco
5
Foster City/Redwood Sho…
425
6
Haight-Ashbury/Castro/N…
2,211
7
Marina/Pacific Heights/Pr…
1,380
8
Mission Bay/China Basin…
9
Outlying San Mateo County
10
Pacifica
178
7.1%
11
Redwood City/Menlo Park
1,854
12.2%
12
Richmond/Western Addition
1,857
11.0%
13
S San Francisco/San Bru…
775
14
San Mateo/Burlingame
2,169
15
South Of Market
16
Sunset/Lakeshore
17
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 27
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
173,697
(64)
0%
3,565
2.1%
0
2024
173,761
(84)
0%
4,897
2.8%
0
2023
173,845
376
0.2%
5,450
3.1%
0.1
2022
173,469
1,671
1.0%
2,062
1.2%
0.8
2021
171,798
1,910
1.1%
(5,949)
-3.5%
-
YTD
169,928
40
0%
133
0.1%
0.3
2020
169,888
2,576
1.5%
(9,376)
-5.5%
-
2019
167,312
2,126
1.3%
730
0.4%
2.9
2018
165,186
1,974
1.2%
2,468
1.5%
0.8
2017
163,212
3,512
2.2%
2,997
1.8%
1.2
2016
159,700
3,738
2.4%
2,821
1.8%
1.3
2015
155,962
2,208
1.4%
1,962
1.3%
1.1
2014
153,754
2,133
1.4%
2,510
1.6%
0.8
2013
151,621
2,794
1.9%
2,558
1.7%
1.1
2012
148,827
179
0.1%
(252)
-0.2%
-
2011
148,648
(25)
0%
838
0.6%
0
2010
148,673
412
0.3%
593
0.4%
0.7
2009
148,261
905
0.6%
(546)
-0.4%
-
4 & 5 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
37,869
19
0.1%
627
1.7%
0
2024
37,850
0
0%
880
2.3%
0
2023
37,850
306
0.8%
2,167
5.7%
0.1
2022
37,544
1,499
4.2%
2,291
6.1%
0.7
2021
36,045
1,744
5.1%
(620)
-1.7%
-
YTD
34,341
40
0.1%
233
0.7%
0.2
2020
34,301
2,472
7.8%
(1,752)
-5.1%
-
2019
31,829
2,085
7.0%
1,320
4.1%
1.6
2018
29,744
2,395
8.8%
2,910
9.8%
0.8
2017
27,349
3,550
14.9%
2,961
10.8%
1.2
2016
23,799
3,777
18.9%
3,366
14.1%
1.1
2015
20,022
2,070
11.5%
1,987
9.9%
1.0
2014
17,952
2,114
13.3%
2,017
11.2%
1.0
2013
15,838
2,100
15.3%
1,782
11.3%
1.2
2012
13,738
489
3.7%
371
2.7%
1.3
2011
13,249
(53)
-0.4%
270
2.0%
-
2010
13,302
422
3.3%
377
2.8%
1.1
2009
12,880
968
8.1%
680
5.3%
1.4
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 28
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family 3 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
46,311
0
0%
976
2.1%
0
2024
46,311
0
0%
1,371
3.0%
0
2023
46,311
154
0.3%
1,228
2.7%
0.1
2022
46,157
254
0.6%
(33)
-0.1%
-
2021
45,903
8
0%
(1,716)
-3.7%
0
YTD
45,895
0
0%
65
0.1%
0
2020
45,895
104
0.2%
(2,849)
-6.2%
0
2019
45,791
30
0.1%
(79)
-0.2%
-
2018
45,761
(411)
-0.9%
(472)
-1.0%
0.9
2017
46,172
(7)
0%
0
0%
-
2016
46,179
7
0%
(296)
-0.6%
0
2015
46,172
139
0.3%
57
0.1%
2.4
2014
46,033
20
0%
277
0.6%
0.1
2013
46,013
646
1.4%
550
1.2%
1.2
2012
45,367
(310)
-0.7%
(454)
-1.0%
0.7
2011
45,677
28
0.1%
283
0.6%
0.1
2010
45,649
21
0%
99
0.2%
0.2
2009
45,628
32
0.1%
(473)
-1.0%
-
1 & 2 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Absorption
Year
Units
Growth
% Growth
Units
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
89,517
(83)
-0.1%
1,962
2.2%
0
2024
89,600
(84)
-0.1%
2,646
3.0%
0
2023
89,684
(84)
-0.1%
2,055
2.3%
0
2022
89,768
(82)
-0.1%
(196)
-0.2%
0.4
2021
89,850
158
0.2%
(3,613)
-4.0%
0
YTD
89,692
0
0%
(165)
-0.2%
0
2020
89,692
0
0%
(4,775)
-5.3%
0
2019
89,692
11
0%
(511)
-0.6%
0
2018
89,681
(10)
0%
30
0%
-
2017
89,691
(31)
0%
36
0%
-
2016
89,722
(46)
-0.1%
(249)
-0.3%
0.2
2015
89,768
(1)
0%
(82)
-0.1%
0
2014
89,769
(1)
0%
216
0.2%
0
2013
89,770
48
0.1%
226
0.3%
0.2
2012
89,722
0
0%
(169)
-0.2%
0
2011
89,722
0
0%
285
0.3%
0
2010
89,722
(31)
0%
117
0.1%
-
2009
89,753
(95)
-0.1%
(753)
-0.8%
0.1
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 29
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family OVERALL VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Market Rent
Effective Rents
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Units
Per SF
2025
15,232
8.8%
(2.1)
$2,787
$3.74
2.0%
0.1
$2,729
$3.66
2024
18,859
10.9%
(2.9)
$2,733
$3.67
1.9%
0.2
$2,676
$3.59
2023
23,840
13.7%
(3.0)
$2,681
$3.60
1.7%
0.7
$2,625
$3.52
2022
28,915
16.7%
(0.4)
$2,636
$3.54
1.0%
5.1
$2,581
$3.46
2021
29,305
17.1%
4.4
$2,609
$3.50
-4.1%
8.2
$2,555
$3.43
YTD
21,367
12.6%
(0.1)
$2,742
$3.59
0.8%
13.1
$2,685
$3.52
2020
21,460
12.6%
7.0
$2,721
$3.57
-12.3%
(13.2)
$2,663
$3.49
2019
9,474
5.7%
0.8
$3,104
$4.09
0.8%
(2.4)
$3,082
$4.06
2018
8,077
4.9%
(0.4)
$3,079
$4.06
3.2%
1.9
$3,047
$4.01
2017
8,565
5.2%
0.2
$2,983
$3.93
1.3%
0.7
$2,924
$3.85
2016
8,048
5.0%
0.5
$2,945
$3.88
0.6%
(5.3)
$2,887
$3.80
2015
7,121
4.6%
0.1
$2,927
$3.86
6.0%
1.0
$2,898
$3.82
2014
6,870
4.5%
(0.3)
$2,762
$3.64
5.0%
0.6
$2,741
$3.61
2013
7,244
4.8%
0.1
$2,632
$3.46
4.4%
(0.1)
$2,613
$3.44
2012
7,011
4.7%
0.3
$2,522
$3.32
4.5%
0.9
$2,508
$3.30
2011
6,581
4.4%
(0.6)
$2,414
$3.17
3.5%
(0.6)
$2,400
$3.15
2010
7,443
5.0%
(0.1)
$2,332
$3.06
4.1%
10.3
$2,314
$3.04
2009
7,623
5.1%
1.0
$2,240
$2.94
-6.2%
-
$2,223
$2.91
4 & 5 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Market Rent
Effective Rents
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Units
Per SF
2025
5,120
13.5%
(1.6)
$3,391
$3.98
1.8%
0
$3,289
$3.86
2024
5,727
15.1%
(2.3)
$3,331
$3.91
1.8%
0.2
$3,231
$3.79
2023
6,606
17.5%
(5.1)
$3,274
$3.84
1.5%
0.9
$3,175
$3.73
2022
8,469
22.6%
(3.1)
$3,224
$3.78
0.6%
3.7
$3,127
$3.67
2021
9,261
25.7%
5.6
$3,204
$3.76
-3.1%
15.1
$3,108
$3.65
YTD
6,704
19.5%
(0.6)
$3,366
$3.81
1.8%
20.0
$3,264
$3.71
2020
6,898
20.1%
11.9
$3,306
$3.74
-18.2%
(18.0)
$3,186
$3.62
2019
2,622
8.2%
2.0
$4,042
$4.57
-0.2%
(4.0)
$4,011
$4.54
2018
1,855
6.2%
(2.4)
$4,052
$4.59
3.8%
3.0
$3,996
$4.53
2017
2,367
8.7%
1.2
$3,905
$4.42
0.8%
0.8
$3,788
$4.29
2016
1,774
7.5%
0.7
$3,875
$4.39
-0.1%
(4.9)
$3,771
$4.27
2015
1,354
6.8%
(0.3)
$3,878
$4.40
4.8%
0.7
$3,838
$4.36
2014
1,271
7.1%
(0.3)
$3,699
$4.20
4.2%
0.9
$3,673
$4.17
2013
1,174
7.4%
1.2
$3,550
$4.02
3.3%
(0.7)
$3,522
$3.99
2012
857
6.2%
0.7
$3,436
$3.89
4.0%
0.9
$3,417
$3.87
2011
739
5.6%
(2.4)
$3,303
$3.74
3.2%
(1.3)
$3,281
$3.72
2010
1,062
8.0%
0.1
$3,202
$3.62
4.4%
10.8
$3,168
$3.59
2009
1,016
7.9%
1.8
$3,066
$3.47
-6.3%
-
$3,035
$3.44
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 30
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family 3 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Market Rent
Effective Rents
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Units
Per SF
2025
4,146
9.0%
(2.1)
$2,700
$3.77
2.1%
0.1
$2,646
$3.69
2024
5,123
11.1%
(3.0)
$2,645
$3.69
2.0%
0.2
$2,592
$3.62
2023
6,494
14.0%
(2.4)
$2,593
$3.62
1.8%
0.6
$2,541
$3.55
2022
7,569
16.4%
0.5
$2,548
$3.56
1.2%
5.7
$2,496
$3.48
2021
7,281
15.9%
3.8
$2,517
$3.51
-4.5%
6.6
$2,466
$3.44
YTD
5,492
12.0%
(0.1)
$2,648
$3.64
0.5%
11.6
$2,595
$3.56
2020
5,557
12.1%
6.4
$2,636
$3.62
-11.1%
(12.5)
$2,599
$3.57
2019
2,613
5.7%
0.2
$2,965
$4.08
1.4%
(1.1)
$2,942
$4.05
2018
2,504
5.5%
0.2
$2,924
$4.02
2.5%
1.1
$2,900
$3.99
2017
2,441
5.3%
0
$2,853
$3.93
1.4%
0.9
$2,809
$3.86
2016
2,448
5.3%
0.7
$2,815
$3.87
0.5%
(6.6)
$2,762
$3.80
2015
2,143
4.6%
0.2
$2,801
$3.86
7.0%
1.9
$2,766
$3.81
2014
2,058
4.5%
(0.6)
$2,617
$3.60
5.1%
(0.6)
$2,592
$3.56
2013
2,317
5.0%
0.1
$2,489
$3.42
5.8%
0.5
$2,472
$3.40
2012
2,221
4.9%
0.3
$2,354
$3.23
5.3%
0.3
$2,340
$3.21
2011
2,077
4.5%
(0.6)
$2,236
$3.07
5.0%
0.6
$2,223
$3.05
2010
2,331
5.1%
(0.2)
$2,130
$2.92
4.3%
11.7
$2,118
$2.90
2009
2,409
5.3%
1.1
$2,041
$2.79
-7.4%
-
$2,029
$2.78
1 & 2 STAR VACANCY & RENT Vacancy
Market Rent
Effective Rents
Year
Units
Percent
Ppts Chg
Per Unit
Per SF
% Growth
Ppts Chg
Units
Per SF
2025
5,966
6.7%
(2.3)
$2,298
$3.37
2.2%
0.1
$2,279
$3.34
2024
8,010
8.9%
(3.0)
$2,249
$3.30
2.1%
0.2
$2,231
$3.27
2023
10,739
12.0%
(2.4)
$2,203
$3.23
1.9%
0.6
$2,185
$3.20
2022
12,877
14.3%
0.1
$2,162
$3.17
1.3%
6.4
$2,144
$3.14
2021
12,762
14.2%
4.2
$2,134
$3.12
-5.0%
(1.0)
$2,116
$3.10
YTD
9,170
10.2%
0.2
$2,241
$3.24
-0.3%
3.8
$2,222
$3.21
2020
9,005
10.0%
5.3
$2,247
$3.25
-4.1%
(5.9)
$2,227
$3.22
2019
4,239
4.7%
0.6
$2,342
$3.41
1.9%
(1.4)
$2,330
$3.40
2018
3,718
4.1%
0
$2,299
$3.35
3.3%
1.2
$2,285
$3.33
2017
3,757
4.2%
(0.1)
$2,226
$3.24
2.0%
0
$2,209
$3.21
2016
3,826
4.3%
0.2
$2,182
$3.18
2.0%
(4.5)
$2,164
$3.15
2015
3,623
4.0%
0.1
$2,138
$3.12
6.5%
0.4
$2,126
$3.10
2014
3,542
3.9%
(0.2)
$2,007
$2.91
6.1%
1.7
$1,995
$2.90
2013
3,754
4.2%
(0.2)
$1,892
$2.74
4.4%
0.2
$1,882
$2.72
2012
3,933
4.4%
0.2
$1,813
$2.62
4.2%
1.9
$1,802
$2.60
2011
3,765
4.2%
(0.3)
$1,740
$2.51
2.3%
(0.9)
$1,731
$2.49
2010
4,050
4.5%
(0.2)
$1,702
$2.45
3.2%
7.7
$1,692
$2.43
2009
4,198
4.7%
0.7
$1,650
$2.37
-4.5%
-
$1,640
$2.36
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 31
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family OVERALL SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$631,016
230
3.5%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$603,877
220
3.5%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$570,253
208
3.5%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$535,171
195
3.5%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$516,606
188
3.6%
YTD
13
$38.3M
0.1%
$2,942,500
$434,688
4.4%
$575,308
210
3.7%
2020
168
$1.4B
1.8%
$8,638,025
$459,735
4.0%
$576,013
210
3.7%
2019
466
$2.8B
3.0%
$11,459,337
$569,865
4.0%
$643,540
235
3.5%
2018
573
$2.5B
3.3%
$7,851,964
$458,815
3.7%
$616,722
225
3.6%
2017
599
$1.6B
2.4%
$5,652,597
$416,537
3.6%
$577,299
211
3.6%
2016
419
$2.5B
4.0%
$8,980,118
$391,722
3.8%
$545,149
199
3.7%
2015
377
$1.8B
2.8%
$6,980,940
$406,840
3.9%
$519,969
190
3.7%
2014
474
$2.6B
5.7%
$7,534,090
$293,413
4.1%
$470,150
172
3.9%
2013
373
$2.3B
4.5%
$7,899,832
$330,115
4.7%
$419,878
153
4.1%
2012
456
$1.4B
4.1%
$3,689,904
$223,122
5.2%
$400,205
146
4.2%
2011
373
$1.5B
5.8%
$4,777,811
$171,888
5.7%
$373,698
136
4.3%
2010
179
$1.3B
4.7%
$7,422,856
$185,013
5.8%
$335,287
122
4.4%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
4 & 5 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$761,328
217
3.4%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$729,770
208
3.4%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$690,320
197
3.4%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$648,626
185
3.4%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$627,936
179
3.5%
YTD
-
-
-
-
-
-
$689,002
196
3.7%
2020
3
$321.1M
1.9%
$107,024,431
$483,544
3.9%
$690,340
197
3.7%
2019
11
$1.4B
5.8%
$159,201,111
$770,328
4.7%
$797,256
227
3.4%
2018
9
$362.3M
3.0%
$51,761,664
$399,484
3.7%
$770,711
220
3.4%
2017
4
$376.1M
2.5%
$94,015,833
$558,787
-
$726,630
207
3.5%
2016
5
$774.7M
4.7%
$154,930,000
$687,966
3.9%
$685,702
195
3.5%
2015
5
$251.2M
1.8%
$62,800,000
$697,778
3.9%
$661,167
189
3.6%
2014
5
$1.2B
21.9%
$232,826,000
$295,615
5.7%
$601,816
172
3.7%
2013
7
$500.4M
7.5%
$83,395,774
$418,724
5.1%
$543,072
155
3.9%
2012
11
$160.5M
3.4%
$32,109,900
$343,789
5.4%
$515,590
147
3.9%
2011
10
$448M
29.9%
$55,994,633
$112,949
7.1%
$479,038
137
4.0%
2010
5
$694.7M
26.8%
$138,940,000
$194,539
-
$429,243
122
4.2%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 32
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family 3 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$589,128
252
3.4%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$563,397
241
3.4%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$531,406
227
3.4%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$498,463
213
3.4%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$480,350
206
3.5%
YTD
1
$1.3M
0%
$1,250,000
$208,333
-
$531,366
227
3.6%
2020
33
$429.6M
2.1%
$13,019,056
$444,750
3.8%
$531,918
228
3.6%
2019
74
$461.5M
2.3%
$10,489,602
$437,067
4.0%
$581,701
249
3.5%
2018
101
$838.3M
3.8%
$11,328,451
$485,130
3.9%
$549,035
235
3.5%
2017
97
$419.3M
2.2%
$6,450,766
$405,905
3.6%
$508,609
218
3.6%
2016
65
$891.5M
6.4%
$16,820,326
$301,684
3.6%
$478,814
205
3.7%
2015
66
$777.6M
3.9%
$13,406,399
$429,597
3.9%
$453,936
194
3.7%
2014
74
$433.5M
3.3%
$6,470,607
$284,656
3.8%
$408,904
175
3.9%
2013
72
$1.2B
7.2%
$17,634,859
$355,670
4.4%
$363,171
155
4.1%
2012
95
$570.5M
5.7%
$6,410,438
$221,565
5.5%
$344,513
147
4.2%
2011
69
$455.4M
3.9%
$8,280,307
$258,027
5.7%
$319,274
137
4.3%
2010
31
$246.2M
3.8%
$8,205,431
$140,665
5.9%
$286,523
123
4.5%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
1 & 2 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/Unit
Avg Cap Rate
Price/Unit
Price Index
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$597,718
228
Cap Rate
3.5%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$571,715
218
3.5%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$539,897
206
3.6%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$506,488
193
3.6%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$488,582
186
3.7%
YTD
12
$37M
0.1%
$3,083,542
$451,250
4.4%
$549,732
209
3.8%
2020
132
$683.2M
1.7%
$5,255,462
$458,838
4.1%
$550,590
210
3.8%
2019
381
$947.6M
2.3%
$4,859,298
$457,539
4.0%
$610,684
233
3.6%
2018
463
$1.3B
3.1%
$5,459,473
$461,805
3.7%
$586,334
223
3.6%
2017
498
$849.5M
2.5%
$3,826,769
$378,753
3.6%
$549,417
209
3.7%
2016
349
$839.3M
2.6%
$3,797,854
$362,560
3.8%
$519,782
198
3.8%
2015
306
$772.3M
2.5%
$3,940,364
$342,185
3.9%
$494,169
188
3.8%
2014
395
$971.5M
3.7%
$3,611,391
$294,830
4.2%
$445,922
170
4.0%
2013
294
$593.2M
2.6%
$2,759,262
$249,786
4.8%
$396,896
151
4.2%
2012
350
$641.6M
3.5%
$2,307,791
$206,291
5.2%
$380,022
145
4.3%
2011
294
$573M
3.2%
$2,329,145
$200,479
5.7%
$357,135
136
4.3%
2010
143
$350.7M
1.9%
$2,523,123
$211,274
5.8%
$320,630
122
4.5%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 33
Appendix San Francisco Multi-Family DELIVERIES & UNDER CONSTRUCTION Inventory
Deliveries
Net Deliveries
Under Construction
Year
Bldgs
Units
Vacancy
Bldgs
Units
Bldgs
Units
Bldgs
Units
2025
-
173,699
8.8%
-
20
-
(63)
-
-
2024
-
173,762
10.9%
-
0
-
(84)
-
-
2023
-
173,846
13.7%
-
460
-
376
-
-
2022
-
173,470
16.7%
-
1,753
-
1,672
-
-
2021
-
171,798
17.1%
-
1,951
-
1,910
-
-
YTD
9,215
169,928
12.6%
1
40
1
40
33
4,108
2020
9,214
169,888
12.6%
17
2,636
17
2,636
31
3,785
2019
9,197
167,312
5.7%
19
2,127
19
2,127
42
5,717
2018
9,178
165,186
4.9%
14
2,434
12
1,974
39
5,501
2017
9,166
163,212
5.2%
17
3,550
13
3,512
28
4,700
2016
9,153
159,700
5.0%
17
3,784
13
3,738
23
5,262
2015
9,140
155,962
4.6%
14
2,215
13
2,208
34
8,363
2014
9,127
153,754
4.5%
14
2,139
14
2,139
28
6,466
2013
9,113
151,621
4.8%
19
2,833
16
2,793
25
4,927
2012
9,097
148,827
4.7%
5
489
4
179
27
4,532
2011
9,093
148,648
4.4%
3
123
2
(25)
13
1,585
2010
9,091
148,673
5.0%
6
464
(2)
412
5
466
2009
9,093
148,261
5.1%
8
1,020
6
905
8
575
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 34