Office Market Report
San Francisco - CA
PREPARED BY
Roark O'Neill Real Estate Agent
San Francisco Office
OFFICE MARKET REPORT
Market Key Statistics
2
Leasing
4
Rent
9
Construction
12
Under Construction Properties
15
Sales
17
Sales Past 12 Months
20
Economy
22
Market Submarkets
26
Supply & Demand Trends
30
Rent & Vacancy
32
Sale Trends
34
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021
Overview San Francisco Office 12 Mo Deliveries in SF
12 Mo Net Absorption in SF
Vacancy Rate
12 Mo Rent Growth
546 K
(9.2 M)
11.6%
-7.9%
The tech sector drove demand for office space in San Francisco to new heights over the past decade, but the coronavirus pandemic has rocked some of the market's major tenants and sent the economy into a recession. Sublease availability was already rising before the coronavirus outbreak, and now overall demand for space in the market is falling quickly as remote work gains traction. Leasing volume quickly dropped to roughly 85% of its pre-pandemic level and has yet to shown signs of a rebound heading into the new year. The market is saturated with coworking space that could be vacated quickly due to social distancing concerns, and corporate occupiers are closely evaluating their use of physical space and location while monitoring their mobile workforce's productivity. Beyond business closures and lost jobs, the emerging trend of working from home could have significant ramifications on San Francisco's tech-heavy office demand, if it holds following the pandemic. Tech firms have been leaders in announcing longer-term mobile work options. For example, Jack Dorsey's Twitter and Square announced working from home will remain an option indefinitely, while Shopify, Coinbase, and Slack rank among the other local office users that are providing a permanent mobile option. Twitter has listed a portion of its downtown headquarters for sublease, but also confirmed plans to retain it for long-term growth. Larger players, including Facebook, Uber, and Google announced policies for remote-based work until summer 2021. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg envisions a measured rise towards a 50% mobile workforce over the next 5-10 years. Remote-based hiring will ramp up, while over the long term, he estimates 20% to 30% of Facebook's existing workforce could become remote. A Bay Area Council survey of CEOs found that almost a fifth of companies are planning to transition to full remote policies and 89% are planning at least partial remote work policies. Occupancy losses were steep and consistent on a quarterly basis through 2020 since the pandemic's effects took hold in 20Q2. The forecast for a return to slightly positive net absorption in the latter half of 2021 is aided by several large tenants moving into new buildings preleased in the prior expansion cycle. This year's
deliveries will be headlined by the Mission Bay headquarters of Uber, and Facebook taking occupancy of two new outposts: Burlingame Point and Menlo Gateway II. Many of the market's largest tenants, including Salesforce, Facebook, and Google, are mature corporations boasting strong balance sheets that are well-positioned to survive the recession with limited losses, but the office market has already endured sharp losses and some unprofitable consumer reliant businesses including Uber are facing dire economic circumstances, while others like Airbnb and Twitter are shifting to a more remote-based or geographically dispersed employment model. Fundamentals are deteriorating as business leaders respond to the sharp economic downturn and implement necessary social distancing measures. The pace of rent growth in the market, on a same-store basis unaffected by new premium inventory, had already slowed dramatically before the coronavirus hit. Now, with landlords adjusting to weaker tenant demand and discounted sublease availabilities flooding the market, asking rents are heading lower at the fastest pace in the nation. Despite the recent downturn in rent trends and elevated tenant risk, San Francisco will likely remain a premier market for office investment over the long term. Following a nearly frozen office investment market in the two quarters immediately following the outbreak of the pandemic, a bevy of banner deals in the works closed in 20Q4, boosting transaction volume back up to prepandemic levels. Institutional investors and large ownerusers are still active, but overall deal velocity is down to a decade-long low. Sales activity has faced a slowdown as many investors and lenders froze during the lockdown, and are now assessing a rapidly changing landscape with far greater uncertainty. Asset values have edged lower based on falling rent potential and weaker tenant credit. Cap rates could drift higher as investors seek higher returns deemed necessary to take on greater risk, and rent losses are affecting operating income projections as underwriters adjust to evolving circumstances, sending CoStar's estimated price of all properties in the market lower.
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Overview San Francisco Office KEY INDICATORS RBA
Vacancy Rate
Market Rent
Availability Rate
Net Absorption SF
Deliveries SF
Under Construction
4 & 5 Star
94,766,547
11.2%
$71.16
18.8%
(1,323,556)
0
7,653,027
3 Star
52,341,774
12.0%
$57.34
17.3%
(393,676)
0
327,337
1 & 2 Star
32,555,036
11.9%
$52.54
14.9%
(264,182)
0
0
Market
179,663,357
11.6%
$64.05
17.7%
(1,981,414)
0
7,980,364
12 Month
Historical Average
Forecast Average
Peak
When
Trough
When
5.3%
9.2%
13.5%
16.1%
2003 Q2
1.3%
2000 Q2
Net Absorption SF
(9.2 M)
1,009,222
180,443
7,160,122
2000 Q1
(9,611,266)
2001 Q3
Deliveries SF
546 K
1,834,934
1,782,438
6,038,362
2001 Q4
55,198
2006 Q2
Current Quarter
Annual Trends
Vacancy Change (YOY)
Rent Growth
-7.9%
4.1%
0.3%
30.5%
2000 Q3
-32.9%
2002 Q1
Sales Volume
$2.1 B
$3.5B
N/A
$9.3B
2007 Q3
$294.7M
2002 Q2
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Leasing San Francisco Office San Francisco's office market has experienced strong negative ramifications due to the pandemic. Total occupancy has already declined by nearly 2 million SF for a fourth consecutive quarter in 21Q1. Nearly 7.5 million SF was vacated on net in 2020. Tenant occupancy losses amid the coronavirus pandemic already exceed those of the global financial crisis and are approaching those of the dot-com bust in magnitude. The downturn was partially driven by several trends that emerged prior to the coronavirus outbreak. For example, cost-sensitive tenants have left the market entirely in search of affordability. San Francisco has become the most expensive market in the country for office space, in addition to carrying the nation's second-highest business tax burden and highest employee compensation standards. Average office rents in the East Bay are roughly 40% below those in San Francisco—a difference that widened during the 2010s economic expansion cycle. Most recently, Redwood Shores-based Oracle joined the exodus of large corporations to the low-tax state of Texas. As San Francisco tenants still face steep rent hikes upon lease expirations and an ever-growing tax burden, relocations are hampering demand. Beyond high flying tech firms, many small and mid-sized professional service providers have vacated offices, a trend that could persist as businesses without cash reserves struggle to survive on weaker income streams. Vacancy in the market has already increased from a cyclical low of 5.9% to 11.6%, and is forecast to rise further, as victims of the pandemic's social distancing measures shed space. Elevated levels of available sublease space suggest that underlying fundamentals are already weaker than the market's headline vacancy rate suggests. Driven by the rise in sublease space, total availability has steadily climbed higher since last year and now registers 17.7%, which compares to the national average of 15.7%. A staggering 10.8 million SF of sublease space is currently listed as available, which equates to 5.8% of market inventory, and represents roughly a third of the market's 33.2 million SF of total space availability. San Francisco registers the highest sublease availability rate across the country by far. Beyond tenants leaving the market due to its rising cost, many tech tenants that banked space for future growth are coming to the realization that they will not fulfill aggressive real estate growth plans, particularly as they transition to a hybrid of in-office and remote working models. Financial victims of the coronavirus
pandemic's shelter-in-place and social distancing measures are also shedding space. For example, at 55 Hawthorne St., over 68,000 SF formerly occupied by KeepTruckin and Yelp! has recently been offered for sublease. Both companies laid off hundreds as revenues dwindled due to social distancing. In 20Q3, Twitter listed over 100,000 SF of its headquarters space or sublease, AirBnB listed 61,000 SF, and in 20Q4, Zendesk added a 75,000 SF sublease. Vacancy is forecast to rise further into 2021, but a few large scheduled move-ins should help negate tenant occupancy losses of 2020's magnitude. Facebook alone is scheduled to take occupancy of nearly 1.3 million square feet of new space at two developments south of the city, Burlingame Point and Menlo Gateway II, which are both pure expansion plays. Several technology firms boasting quickly rising revenue streams that expanded aggressively in San Francisco remain unprofitable, which presents a lingering element of elevated tenant risk in the market. Start-ups are susceptible to quick changes in real estate needs and are generally designed to grow fast or fail. Real estate start-ups including Sonder, WeWork, Knotel, and Convene, a collection of travel-related businesses including Airbnb and TripActions, and technology firms reliant on social interaction, like Yelp!, Eventbrite, and Stubhub each laid off hundreds in the downturn. In addition, San Francisco is saturated with coworking space, which is acutely exposed to a downturn and social distancing needs. More than a quarter of coworking memberships are month-to-month and the average lease term including longer-term corporate tenants is slightly over a year. Several tenants, including Delta Dental, Blue Shield, Aecom, and more recently, Square and Credit Karma have moved to Oakland in search of more affordable office space in the Bay Area. Furthermore, several Fortune 500 firms with longstanding roots in San Francisco are also moving out of the region, to parts of the country where the cost of doing business is much lower. Engineering and construction firm Bechtel Group is moving to Virginia, while McKesson and Core-Mark are relocating to Texas. A significant shift to working from home on a permanent basis could devastate demand for office space, assuming businesses fundamentally change the way they operate and reduce office footprints as a result. However, cities
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Leasing San Francisco Office have been at the center of disease outbreaks throughout history, and it may be premature to declare the longterm trend to urbanization and tech clustering over. If fear of infection does persist though, a draw out of the city to suburbs and remote-based work poses an acute threat to demand in San Francisco, where density and public transportation reliance is high. Prior to the pandemic, San Francisco's office market was thriving in the mature stages of a tech-led economic expansion. Absorption soared to record levels in 2018,
and remained strong in 2019, totaling over 2 million SF. Despite an abundance of new inventory, tenant demand placed downward pressure on vacancy in the 2010's expansion cycle. Developments are still reaching completion, most fully preleased. However, San Francisco's historically strong market had already begun to show some signs of weakening before the coronavirus outbreak, and now the city has been hit by devastating job losses and stay at home orders that have impacted all segments of its economy, especially tech firms.
NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY
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Leasing San Francisco Office VACANCY RATE
AVAILABILITY RATE
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Leasing San Francisco Office 12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS
Net Absorption SF Building Name/Address
Submarket
Bldg SF
Vacant SF 1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr
12 Month
1500 Mission St
MidMarket
466,000
29,502
0
0
0
0
436,498
One Front Street
Financial District
643,307
18,769
(11,248)
0
0
0
143,425
Foundry Square
South Financial District
521,555
68,682
(60,593)
0
0
0
139,381
2 North Point St
Waterfront/North Bea…
123,936
0
123,936
0
0
0
123,936
Rincon Center
South Financial District
279,354
26,499
0
0
0
0
72,177
First Market Tower
South Financial District
1,034,329
82,765
86,115
0
0
0
63,177
45 Fremont St
South Financial District
613,957
18,388
17,898
0
0
0
61,443
Redwood LIFE
Foster City/Redwood…
50,305
0
0
0
0
0
50,305
Parkside Towers
Foster City/Redwood…
399,422
99,195
9,927
0
0
0
48,660
Broadway Station
Redwood City
114,859
0
0
0
0
0
47,219
101 Redwood Shores Pky
Foster City/Redwood…
100,328
0
0
0
0
0
41,245
657 Mission St
South Financial District
105,389
0
0
0
0
0
40,516
300 Mission St
South Financial District
665,254
122,721
175,652
0
0
0
38,149
Fog Bldg
Mission/Potrero
57,729
14,743
0
0
0
0
29,486
155 5th St
Yerba Buena
351,858
0
0
0
0
0
28,744
University Circle
Menlo Park
165,000
38,936
0
0
0
0
28,284
99 Rhode Island St
Showplace Square
63,780
0
0
0
0
0
26,220
520,200
341,687
Subtotal Primary Competitors
0
0
0
1,418,865
Remaining San Francisco Market
173,906,995
5,756,362
20,275,532 (2,323,101)
0
0
0
(10,585,048)
Total San Francisco Market
179,663,357
20,795,732 (1,981,414)
0
0
0
(9,166,183)
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Leasing San Francisco Office TOP OFFICE LEASES PAST 12 MONTHS Building Name/Address
Submarket
Leased SF
Qtr Tenant Name
Tenant Rep Compa… Leasing Rep Company
Bank of America Tower *
Financial District
247,000
Q4 20 Bank of America
-
CBRE
One Market Plaza *
South Financial District
149,182
Q2 20 Morgan, Lewis & Bockius…
-
-
The Exchange on Sixteenth
Mission Bay/China Basin
133,896
Q4 20 Vir Biotechnology
-
CBRE
1180-1190 Main St
Redwood City
118,136
Q1 20 Chan Zuckerberg Initiative
-
Newmark
388 Market St *
Financial District
116,805
Q2 20 First Republic Bank
Avison Young
CBRE
Mariposa Square
Mission/Potrero
96,960
Q3 20 Open AI
Savills
Touchstone Commerci…
The Alexandria District
Belmont/San Carlos
93,332
Q1 20 Allakos
-
Newmark;Newmark Kni…
Bank of America Tower *
Financial District
88,370
Q1 21 Goldman Sachs & Co. - G… -
CBRE
20 Davis Dr *
Belmont/San Carlos
84,416
Q3 20 RingCentral
Newmark
Cushman & Wakefield
The Alexandria District
Belmont/San Carlos
77,734
Q1 21 Vaxcyte, Inc.
-
-
425 Market *
South Financial District
53,323
Q3 20 IBM Corporation
-
Cushman & Wakefield
Menlo Business Park *
Menlo Park
50,373
Q4 20 Intersect ENT, Inc.
-
-
33 Gough St
South of Market
49,000
Q1 20 City and County of San Fr… Sequoia Commercia… Sequoia Commercial G…
1455 Market
MidMarket
48,845
Q1 20 Front
CBRE
JLL
155 5th St
Yerba Buena
48,812
Q2 20 Airtable
CBRE
Raise Commercial Real…
Britannia Seaport Centre
Redwood City
45,784
Q3 20 Bolt Biotherapeutics
Savills
-
1033-1045 Market St *
MidMarket
45,322
Q2 20 San Francisco Aids Foun…
-
-
144 Townsend St
Rincon/South Beach
45,000
Q2 20 User Testing
-
Ground Matrix
Fog Bldg
Mission/Potrero
44,229
Q3 20 City and County of San Fr… -
Colliers International
50 California St *
Financial District
43,194
Q2 20 Woodruff-Sawyer & Co
-
Shorenstein Properties…
360 Spear St
Rincon/South Beach
39,786
Q4 20 Lattice Inc
-
Newmark Knight Frank
Brisbane Technology Park
Brisbane/Daly City
38,699
Q1 21 -
-
CBRE
7000 Shoreline Ct
South San Francisco
36,182
Q4 20 -
-
Alexandria Real Estate…
617-629 Bryant St
South of Market
36,000
Q4 20 -
-
Touchstone Commerci…
Keynote Plaza *
San Mateo
35,600
Q2 20 Model N, Inc
Newmark
Newmark
Alexandria Technology Campus
South San Francisco
35,000
Q1 20 -
-
JLL
Mission Bay Office Campus *
Mission Bay/China Basin
33,564
Q1 20 Wix
-
Newmark Knight Frank
360 Spear St
Rincon/South Beach
33,318
Q3 20 Vitalant
-
Newmark Knight Frank
795 Folsom St
Yerba Buena
32,566
Q1 21 -
-
JLL
100 Redwood Shores Pky
Belmont/San Carlos
30,250
Q2 20 Amobee
-
Cushman & Wakefield
450-460 Pacific Ave *
Jackson Square
28,616
Q2 20 Keesal, Young & Logan
-
CBRE
101 Mission St
South Financial District
26,914
Q2 20 Constellation Brands Inc
-
JLL
Britannia Seaport Centre
Redwood City
25,956
Q3 20 Bolt Biotherapeutics
Savills
-
San Mateo Gateway *
San Mateo
25,809
Q3 20 CAMICO Mutual Insuranc… -
Cushman & Wakefield
101 California St *
Financial District
24,907
Q2 20 Sitecore
CBRE
CBRE
Mission Bay *
Mission Bay/China Basin
24,877
Q1 20 Clovis Oncology, Inc
-
-
100 Montgomery St
Financial District
24,793
Q1 21 Varo
-
Cushman & Wakefield
Bay Park Plaza
Burlingame
24,435
Q1 20 Alaska Airlines
-
Newmark
101 California St
Financial District
24,424
Q1 20 The Blackstone Group Inc.
Cushman & Wakefield CBRE
Market Center
South Financial District
24,218
Q2 20 Castle Global
-
Cushman & Wakefield
Renewal
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Rent San Francisco Office While weighted average asking rents did not show a substantial downturn until July 2020, CoStar's unique same-store rent series shows that asking rents in San Francisco office properties peaked in 2019, with rent growth on a trailing-year basis turning negative in 2020. Same-store rents are down -7.9% over the past year and are falling at the fastest pace of any market across the country. In what could be considered direct evidence of the downturn, landlords and brokers have commonly been revising asking rents for available spaces listed on CoStar's platform lower. Leasing velocity remains subdued into the new year, and businesses are facing unprecedented challenges that could curtail office space demand for some time and lead landlords to lower rents more substantially. Office space costs in San Francisco skyrocketed in the 2010s economic expansion cycle. Asking rents in the metro average have fallen to $64.05/FS on average, still up an incredible 105.9% over the past decade. Boasting the strongest 2010s expansion cycle rent growth in the nation, San Francisco now ranks as the most expensive office market in the country, having surpassed New York in 2015. In San Francisco, asking rents more than doubled in the 2010s expansion cycle. However, rents are historically volatile in the market, and the coronavirus poses a unique threat to demand, while more supply is on the way and sublet availability is soaring higher.
Annual rent growth soared in double-digit territory early in the 2010s expansion cycle, but 2019 saw a slowdown in momentum well before the coronavirus pandemic hit. The completion of new office buildings was already helping balance tenant demand and sublease space availability had ticked up rather substantially as tech tenants banked space for future growth or left for cheaper pastures, tempering the leverage landlords held in the market. The days of soaring asking rents in the market have reversed, but rent levels climbed exceedingly high for years, both in San Francisco and in the San Jose metro directly south. Cost-sensitive tenants may be looking to the East Bay, where average rents are 40% lower, or out of the Bay Area entirely in search of affordability. Rent potential will come under greater pressure if demand for office space weakens for an extended period of time. Oxford and most economic forecasters are predicting a return to pre-covid employment levels sometime in 2022 at the earliest now. Asking rents fell 23% over 8 quarters during the global financial crisis recession and a staggering 56% over 14 quarters following the dot-com crash that hit the local market acutely. A further slide in asking rents into double-digit territory may be in store unless the economic recovery takes off, workers return to offices quickly having received a vaccination, or space requirements grow to accommodate social distancing.
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Rent San Francisco Office MARKET RENT GROWTH (YOY)
MARKET RENT PER SQUARE FEET
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Rent San Francisco Office 4 & 5 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Market / Cluster
San Francisco
Utilities
Cleaning
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$1.09
$2.07
$1.41
$7.19
$7.19
$18.95
San Mateo Central County
$1.07
$1.46
$1.36
$7.96
$6.12
$17.97
San Mateo North County
$0.99
$1.52
$1.46
$8.93
$5.45
$18.35
San Mateo South County
$0.98
$1.53
$1.46
$5.99
$5.18
$15.14
SF Downtown Core
$1.04
$3.06
$1.51
$7.44
$10.01
$23.06
SF Downtown North
$0.91
$2.41
$1.39
$8.24
$8.81
$21.76
SF Downtown South
$1.44
$2.34
$1.21
$5.34
$7.30
$17.63
SF Downtown West
$0.73
$2.40
$1.43
$7.44
$8.32
$20.32
SF Outer Areas
$1.01
$2.58
$1.87
$4.17
$9.24
$18.87
SF Southeast
$1.81
$1.73
$1.13
$8.01
$7.39
$20.07
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, Trepp, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
3 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Market / Cluster
San Francisco
Utilities
Cleaning
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$0.93
$1.62
$1.10
$5.80
$5.49
$14.94
San Mateo Central County
$0.94
$0.89
$0.95
$6.69
$5.32
$14.79
San Mateo North County
$0.91
$0.89
$0.95
$6.73
$4.76
$14.24
San Mateo South County
$0.91
$0.90
$0.99
$8.45
$4.77
$16.02
San Mateo West County
$0.65
$0.82
$0.89
$5.02
$5.05
$12.43
SF Downtown Core
$0.97
$2.87
$1.36
$5.54
$6.42
$17.16
SF Downtown North
$0.85
$2.31
$1.26
$4.63
$5.72
$14.77
SF Downtown South
$1.28
$2.21
$1.15
$4.77
$5.39
$14.80
SF Downtown West
$0.67
$2.25
$1.28
$4.45
$5.99
$14.64
SF Outer Areas
$0.60
$0.97
$1.00
$4.21
$5.97
$12.75
SF Southeast
$1.01
$1.56
$1.07
$5.51
$5.72
$14.87
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, Trepp, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
1 & 2 STAR EXPENSES PER SF (ANNUAL) Market / Cluster
Utilities
Cleaning
Insurance
Taxes
Other
Total
$0.69
$1.33
$0.88
$4.80
$2.15
$9.85
San Mateo Central County
$0.64
$0.86
$0.91
$5.24
$2.36
$10.01
San Mateo North County
$0.65
$0.87
$0.92
$4.10
$1.68
$8.22
San Mateo South County
$0.64
$0.87
$0.96
$5.77
$1.54
$9.78
San Mateo West County
$0.60
$0.89
$0.96
$5.17
$1.85
$9.47
SF Downtown Core
$0.90
$2.49
$0.77
$5.31
$3.17
$12.64
SF Downtown North
$0.79
$2.10
$0.72
$5.50
$2.54
$11.65
SF Downtown South
$0.85
$2.12
$0.74
$3.95
$2.55
$10.21
SF Downtown West
$0.67
$2.04
$0.72
$4.57
$2.61
$10.61
SF Outer Areas
$0.61
$0.99
$0.99
$4.65
$2.01
$9.25
SF Southeast
$0.64
$1.20
$0.89
$2.84
$2.03
$7.60
Treasure/Yerba Buena Island
$0.46
$0.89
$0.97
$3.24
$2.38
$7.94
San Francisco
Expenses are estimated using NCREIF, Trepp, IREM, and CoStar data using the narrowest possible geographical definition from Zip Code to region.
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Construction San Francisco Office The office building development cycle in San Francisco remains in full swing, with 8.0 million SF currently under construction throughout the metro. Supply growth was robust in the past two years and will remain for several more, with Uber's Mission Bay headquarters heading for completion and Facebook-preleased Menlo Gateway II and Burlingame Point campus also expected for delivery this year. Central SoMa's recent up zoning clears a path for the development of taller buildings in the area, essentially extending the downtown core. Several large mixed-use developments in the area are already approved and positioned to accommodate growth. Developers were encouraged by the market's exceptionally strong demand for new space in the expansion cycle, but with a wave of new projects just receiving development allocations, it remains to be seen how many will go vertical on spec while fundamentals weaken. Key Central SoMa projects recently awarded Prop M allocations for development include phase 1 of Kilroy Realty's Flower Mart redevelopment, and 88 Bluxome, a project led by TMG Partners and Alexandria. Also, Tishman Speyer received allocation to build 711,000 square feet of office space at 598 Brannan St, another mixed-use development that as planned, will add just under 1 million square feet of commercial space when completed. Lastly, in December 2019, Boston Properties received an allocation for phase one of Harrison Gardens, a 14 story SoMa project between 3rd and 4th street. The project was expected to break ground in 2020 but has been placed on hold along with other Boston Properties projects around the country. Over the long term, the city's annual limit program for office development, known locally as Prop M, will inhibit the pace at which proposed projects obtain approval moving forward, and Prop E passed in March 2020 will limit office construction even more by tying Prop M allocations to the city's ability to meet its affordable housing goals determined by California's Housing Element and Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). Historically, San Francisco has failed to meet its RHNA goals substantially. From 2015-2019, San Francisco missed its affordable housing development target by 40%, which reduced 2020's allocation pool equally. In the two prior eight-year spans, the city only reached 35% and 46% of its target. San Francisco is not an anomaly, as nearly every city in California fails to meet its full RHNA goals, but it is the only major city in California that limits office development and the first to
limit office development based on affordable housing production. The city's unique regulatory constraint on office construction limits growth, but also guards against the potential risk of overdevelopment. The backlog of space available for allocation to large projects (over 50,000 SF) was depleted in the 2010's development cycle, and with a max of only 875,000 SF becoming available annually, developers have lobbied the planning commission for approval of their projects ahead of others. More than 4.5 million SF of pending office space remains in queue for awaiting Prop M allocation, and another 5 million SF is in the preapplication pipeline. Developers continue to push proposals through San Francisco's arduous and lengthy planning process, anticipating tenant demand could return by the time the projects would theoretically reach completion. Some already approved developments will be delayed or even shelved due to unforeseen economic challenges stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, but others may be counting on a quick comeback in demand, and push forward cognizant of risks, but also of how long it takes to build in the city. In part due to Prop M's limitation, preleasing activity for the market's active construction projects is fairly strong. Expanding tech companies have secured space for future growth, as large-sized blocks of available space are limited in the market's existing inventory stock. Several tenants even preleased space in buildings prior to development approval. Salesforce in 18Q4 preleased the office portion of 550 Howard St., which as proposed will become the fourth tallest tower in the city, and provide 325,000 SF of future expansion space for the company. Pinterest, just ahead of its IPO at the end of 19Q1, agreed to anchor 1 of 2 nearly half-a-millionsquare-foot connected buildings at 88 Bluxome that were approved for development in the following quarter, although that agreement was canceled by Pinterest in August 2020 as the firm rethinks where future employees could be based in the post-covid world. The largest and more established tech firms in the market continue to grow local roots though. Facebook is expanding its own headquarters in Menlo Park in will move into Bohannon Development Company's Menlo Gateway II campus nearby, when completed. With a flurry of leasing at the tail end of the 2010's expansion cycle, the social media giant enabled itself to establish multiple satellite locations throughout the Bay Area over
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Construction San Francisco Office the next several years. Following their 2019 move into Park Tower at Transbay, the firm's second building in the city's downtown core, Facebook will soon take occupancy of Burlingame Point, an 803,000 SF under construction campus located midway between their Menlo Park headquarters and Downtown San Francisco. Burlingame Point is expected to house Facebook's virtual reality arm Oculus, and will also be ready for occupancy in 2021. In total, roughly 60% of the market's under construction inventory has been preleased, ahead of the U.S. national average and ranking San Francisco among the strongest markets in the country for preleasing. Less than 5 million SF of office space currently under construction
throughout the metro is available for lease. New building availability is rare, but growing in the economic downturn as developers push forward. The largest available office development in the market stems from Oceanwide Center, a 1.25 million SF building that paused construction in October 2020 due to unforeseen circumstances resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, according to the property's owner, Beijingbased Oceanwide Holdings. Oceanwide was in contact to sell the development to Beijing-based private equity firm Honey Capital, but the deal dissolved following several delays, and the cash-strapped owner is seeking another buyer for the development.
DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS
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Construction San Francisco Office SUBMARKET CONSTRUCTION Under Construction Inventory No.
Submarket
Average Building Size
Bldgs
SF (000)
Pre-Leased SF (000)
Pre-Leased %
Rank
All Existing
Under Constr
Rank
1
Menlo Park
12
1,478
1,201
81.3%
5
33,804
123,128
9
2
South Financial District
1
1,250
293
23.4%
8
187,734
1,250,000
1
3
Mission Bay/China Basin
4
1,162
1,089
93.7%
4
134,350
290,436
3
4
Burlingame
6
848
817
96.4%
3
26,157
141,282
8
5
Yerba Buena
2
699
110
15.8%
9
53,197
349,669
2
6
Belmont/San Carlos
2
526
340
64.5%
6
15,103
263,089
5
7
San Mateo
2
433
0
0%
10
31,057
216,500
6
8
South San Francisco
2
421
421
100%
1
51,849
210,436
7
9
Redwood City
3
282
118
41.9%
7
23,763
94,028
10
10
Rincon/South Beach
1
268
268
100%
1
53,562
268,000
4
All Other
6
614
272
44.3%
40,794
102,320
41
7,980
4,929
61.8%
44,604
194,643
Totals
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Under Construction Properties San Francisco Office Properties
Square Feet
Percent of Inventory
Preleased
41
7,980,364
4.4%
61.8%
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES
UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
Rating
Bldg SF
Stories
Start
Complete
1,250,000
61
Jun 2018
Mar 2023
1
First Street Tower 50 1st St
2
5M 415 Natoma St
640,000
25
Feb 2020
Mar 2021
3
MPK 22 301-309 Constitution Dr
449,500
3
Apr 2019
Jul 2021
4
UBER HQ 1455-1515 3rd St
422,980
11
Sep 2016
Apr 2021
5
Uber South Street 1655 3rd St
312,998
12
Jul 2017
Apr 2021
6
Alexandria District for S… 825 Industrial Rd
282,190
6
Jun 2019
Jul 2021
7
Uber 16th Street 1715-1725 3rd St
280,767
12
Jul 2017
Apr 2021
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Developer/Owner
China Oceanwide Holdings Co. Ltd. China Oceanwide Holdings Co. Ltd. Brookfield Properties Hearst Corporation Facebook Facebook Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Strada Investment Group Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Strada Investment Group Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I…
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Under Construction Properties San Francisco Office UNDER CONSTRUCTION Property Name/Address
8
633 Folsom St
Rating
Bldg SF
Stories
Start
Complete
268,000
12
Jun 2018
May 2021
9
Office - Phase II 135 Constitution Dr
260,500
8
Oct 2017
Mar 2021
10
Office - Phase II 125 Constitution Dr
260,488
8
Oct 2017
Mar 2021
11
Alexandria District for S… 835 Industrial Rd
243,988
6
Jun 2019
Mar 2021
12
Bldg 4 311 Airport Blvd
243,553
8
Jan 2017
Jun 2021
13
N1 Inception - Bldg C 370 Oyster Point Blvd
220,872
5
Oct 2018
Jul 2021
14
Station 1 2750 S Delaware St
219,000
4
Jan 2020
Dec 2021
15
Bldg 3 333 Airport Blvd
215,321
7
Jan 2017
Jun 2021
16
Station 5 3150 S Delaware St
213,999
4
Jan 2020
Dec 2021
17
N1 Inception - Bldg B Oyster Point Blvd & Gull Dr
200,000
6
Oct 2018
Jun 2021
173,000
7
Jan 2020
Nov 2021
18
100 Garden Ln
19
Bldg 1 322 Airport Blvd
155,806
5
Jan 2017
Jun 2021
20
Bldg 2 300 Airport Blvd
155,482
5
Jan 2017
Jun 2021
21
Softbank 500 El Camino Real
154,000
1
Aug 2020
Aug 2022
22
Pier 70 - Bldg 12 Pier 70
145,000
1
Oct 2020
Sep 2021
23
One De Haro 1 De Haro St
126,537
5
Feb 2019
Jul 2021
24
North Bldg 1302 El Camino Real
119,454
3
May 2018
Mar 2021
118,136
4
Jun 2020
Jun 2022
115,766
5
Jul 2019
Mar 2021
101,782
6
Mar 2020
Mar 2021
100,000
3
May 2018
Mar 2021
25 26 27 28
1180-1190 Main St 420 Taylor St 200 Rhode Island St South Bldg 1300 El Camino Real
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Developer/Owner
The Swig Company The Swig Company Bohannon Development Company Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Bohannon Development Company Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Alexandria Real Estate Equities, I… Genzon Investment Group Genzon Investment Group Kilroy Realty Corporation Kilroy Realty Corporation Wilson Meany Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC Genzon Investment Group Genzon Investment Group Wilson Meany Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC Kilroy Realty Corporation Kilroy Realty Corporation Republic Urban Properties Republic Urban Properties Genzon Investment Group Genzon Investment Group Genzon Investment Group Genzon Investment Group Stanford Land, Buildings, & Real… Stanford University Brookfield Properties SKS Partners, LLC Presidio Bay Ventures Greenheart Land Company Premia Capital Premia Capital Seven Equity Group Westbrook Partners Presidio Bay Ventures Greenheart Land Company
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Sales San Francisco Office San Francisco will likely remain a premier market for office investment in the long term, but sales activity has been slowed by the pandemic and shifting market fundamentals. Credit availability has tightened in response to growing uncertainty, while some investors are avoiding risk, and fewer purchase opportunities are coming to market. Roughly 80 office sale transactions closed in 2020, compared to the 227 that closed in 2019. A contraction in transaction volume was expected as investors take stock of the challenges and opportunities at hand. The market's red-hot investment demand, which is partially driven by foreign capital, appears to have moderated. Sales volume soared to a record high of roughly $9 billion in 2019 and managed to reach $3.7 billion in 2020.
some owners to divest down the line, providing a limited pool for opportunistic investors. Despite falling rents and elevated tenant risk, San Francisco remains a premier coastal market with a strong track record that is ripe for office investment.
Following a nearly frozen office investment market in San Francisco during the second and third quarters of 2020 following the outbreak of the pandemic, a bevy of banner deals in the works closed in the fourth quarter, boosting transaction volume back up to pre-pandemic levels.
Market pricing in San Francisco is typically volatile. However, investors who choose to sell, even in a downturn, often realize strong capital gains during their holding periods. Investors who accepted the market's volatility were rewarded with the nation's strongest price appreciation in the 2010's expansion period. Average pricing rose nearly 10% in 2019, but asset values appear to have topped out last year, with rents trending lower in 2020, and cap rates rising ever so slightly, if at all.
Several marquee deals in the market have recently closed at a slight discount from pre-covid pricing guidance. The iconic Transamerica Pyramid Center was sold for the first time ever, to New-York investor Michael Shvo, BVK, and Deutsche Finance. The deal was originally in negotiation for $711 million but eventually closed in 20Q4 at a price point roughly 9% lower, for $650 million with Transamerica financing the deal. In the most significant trade of 20Q3, CBRE Global Investors acquired The Townsend Building in South Beach for $140 million from Manchester Capital Management based out of Vermont. The Townsend Building was initially slated to sell to Alexandria Real Estate Equities at a reported $150 to $160 million dollar price tag, but the investment company forfeited a $10 million dollar deposit to walk away from the deal amid the coronavirus pandemic. Appreciation in the market was strong heading into 2020, but as exemplified in these two key recent trades, pricing power has been restrained as some buyers and lenders took to the sidelines to maintain caution in response to the pandemic and economic downturn. Active buyers have negotiated pricing lower based on elevated tenant risk and declining rent potential. However, rent collections remain high and institutional investors, and their lenders, remain well-capitalized so distressed asset sales at fire-sale prices have yet to emerge. The recession and occupancy losses may eventually lead
Institutional investors are still targeting global gateway cities like San Francisco, and enduring demand generated by buyers attracted to the region's expanding tech industry in conjunction with lower loan interest rates have prevented more substantial upward cap rate pressures from forming. Furthermore, national investors may return to core markets in a flight towards safety as they consider the ramifications of an economic slowdown.
The repeated sales of 123 Mission St., a 345,600-SF high-rise in the South Financial District, provide an excellent example of rising asset pricing in the market, as well as investor interest. Initially developed by Walter Shorenstein in 1987, the 29-story, 4 Star building traded four times in the expansion period at escalating pricing, most recently, to electronic cigarette company Juul Labs for $397 million ($1,149/SF) in June 2019, essentially twice what the building traded for less than six years earlier. Several other large owner/user sales closed in 2019. Gap Inc. exercised its right of first offer to purchase 550 Terry A. Francois Blvd. for $342.5 million ($1,211/SF). The 5 Star, 280,000-SF asset built in 2002 serves as Old Navy's headquarters. The property had previously sold in 2012 for $180 million ($636/SF), representing a 90% increase in seven years. While some corporate occupiers like Juul and Gap Inc. are acquiring real estate in order to stabilize occupancy costs and secure long-term homes in San Francisco's competitive leasing market, other owner/users are disposing of assets through sale-leaseback deals that take advantage of the market's high pricing and strong appreciation. For example, Levi's Plaza was sold for
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Sales San Francisco Office $826 million to Atlanta-based Jamestown LP., and online game maker Zynga unloaded 650 Townsend St., which was purchased by Boston-based Beacon Capital Partners for $602 million ($900/SF) in July 2019, more than 2.5 times the price Zynga paid for the asset in 2012. Global investors continue to place capital in San Francisco office assets. However, local rents are declining, global economic growth took a deep nosedive, and overall business investment has weakened. These headwinds, along with the ongoing economic threat of the coronavirus, has given some investors pause for the time being. On the bright side, technology-sector sales
are strong, and the world's largest tech firms are still growing deeper roots in the San Francisco Bay Area. San Francisco's historically solid market fundamentals and high barriers to entry provide an attractive investment market. However, the rapid price appreciation achieved throughout the expansion cycle could not last indefinitely. CoStar expects cap rates to face slight but further upward pressure amid restrained credit conditions, reduced volume, and softening price pressures. Valuations will remain sensitive to investor sentiment, and sellers may find that buyer uncertainty impacts underwriting assumptions, bids and negotiations.
SALES VOLUME & MARKET SALE PRICE PER SF
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Sales San Francisco Office MARKET CAP RATE
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Sales Past 12 Months San Francisco Office Sale Comparables
Avg. Cap Rate
Avg. Price/SF
Avg. Vacancy At Sale
63
4.4%
$900
4.9%
SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS
SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS Sales Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
$433,500
$43,635,904
$3,000,000
$478,000,000
Price/SF
$4.57
$900
$775
$3,357
Cap Rate
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
Time Since Sale in Months
0.3
5.5
5.2
11.3
Property Attributes
Low
Average
Median
High
Building SF
968
53,602
7,564
512,395
1
4
2
48
Typical Floor SF
873
8,829
3,848
42,190
Vacancy Rate At Sale
0%
4.9%
0%
100%
1900
1953
1957
2020
Sale Price
Stories
Year Built Star Rating
2.5
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Sales Past 12 Months San Francisco Office RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES Property Property Name - Address
1
Transamerica Pyramid 600 Montgomery St
2
Stripe, Inc 510 Townsend St
3
Pinterest Building 505 Brannan St
4
221 Main 221 Main St
5
Terminal Plaza 440-450 Mission St
6
Townsend Bldg 123 Townsend St
7
505 Sansome 505 Sansome St
8
4000 Shoreline Ct
9
130-150 Shoreline Dr
10
634 2nd St
11
1098 Harrison St
12
545 Sansome St
13
Fresenius Kidney Care 160 Country Club Dr
14
809 Montgomery St
15
1785 San Carlos Ave
16
1331 Columbus Ave
17
Clocktower Lofts 461 2nd St
18
600 Alabama St
19
409 S Spruce Ave
20
456 Clementina St
Sale
Rating
Yr Built
Bldg SF
Vacancy
Sale Date
Price
Price/SF
Cap Rate
-
1972
512,395
9.0%
10/28/2020
$478,000,000
$933
-
-
2018
295,333
0%
11/23/2020
$363,700,000
$1,231
-
-
2017
148,146
0%
11/23/2020
$196,500,000
$1,326
-
-
1974
381,000
5.1%
10/8/2020
$180,000,000
$1,050
-
-
1920
75,800
0%
3/17/2020
$145,566,000
$1,920
-
-
1903
146,521
29.5%
7/10/2020
$140,000,000
$955
-
-
1981
191,142
14.8%
10/28/2020
$135,000,000
$706
-
-
2001
73,295
0%
10/15/2020
$86,652,198
$1,182
-
-
1986
81,569
0%
4/23/2020
$81,000,000
$993
-
-
1927
45,032
0%
12/16/2020
$55,000,000
$1,221
-
-
1924
44,794
0%
9/9/2020
$52,000,000
$1,161
-
-
1927
59,669
5.7%
10/28/2020
$35,612,383
$597
-
-
2020
10,814
0%
11/24/2020
$12,404,000
$1,147
-
-
1906
7,752
0%
8/31/2020
$8,483,000
$1,094
-
-
-
8,799
0%
7/15/2020
$6,000,000
$682
-
-
1987
7,564
0%
4/8/2020
$4,999,000
$661
-
-
1907
3,000
1.6%
3/23/2020
$4,850,000
$1,617
-
-
1911
25,682
0%
12/29/2020
$4,500,000
$175
-
-
1975
8,132
0%
10/22/2020
$4,300,000
$529
-
-
1950
4,950
0%
4/23/2020
$4,162,500
$841
-
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Economy San Francisco Office San Francisco's economy grew rapidly in the 2010's expansion cycle and maintained strength heading into 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Annual job growth prevailed at 3% in February, but social distancing measures have caused significant economic disruption, leading to the sharpest employment downturn on record and a migration out of the city. Layoffs and furloughs in the hospitality, restaurant, retail, and entertainment sectors were severe. Professional employment sectors were also hit in the downturn, though not as sharply. A modest recovery of lost jobs ensued in May and gained steam in June as the measured reopening of San Francisco's economy helped drive a rebound. However, plans to reopen businesses were stalled as coronavirus cases climbed again. Outdoor dining and indoor retail were allowed, but the reopening of salons, bars, and museums initially planned for late June was paused, and the pace of job recovery has been uneven and weak as a result. Hotels, indoor malls, gyms, indoor restaurants, and hair and nail salons were finally allowed to open at a limited capacity in September. But, a resurgence of coronavirus cases in December led to a renewed shutdown of establishments, including all restaurant dining including outdoor patios and parklets, as well as nonessential office work. Public schools are distance learning, while entertainment venues including movie theaters, night clubs, and music halls have remained shuttered since the pandemic hit. Total employment in the metro division is down 9.1%, or by 109,000 as of December's jobs report released in January, while employment within typical office-using job sectors is still down 2.1% or by 10,200, from their prepandemic peaks reached in February. Start-ups in hardhit segments of the economy have slashed headcounts considerably, while mainstays like Google have slowed their rate of hiring and real estate expansions as ad revenue declines. Most industries are recovering now, though as the economy slowly reopens. Unemployment had fallen below 2% prior to the pandemic, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Job opportunities were abundant and outnumbered qualified job seekers, but job listings have fallen dramatically over the past few months, and unemployment skyrocketed into the double-digits in the Springtime, ticking back to 5.4% as of November, but rising in December to 6.1%. The labor force has declined slightly since the pandemic hit due to a migration out of
the market. The trajectory of San Francisco's economy and commercial real estate markets will depend on how widely the virus and its variants spread, how quickly the vaccine is distributed, how long containment policies like social distancing need to be maintained, and how quickly those with lost jobs can find employment again. On the positive side, Oxford Economics projects that San Francisco's economic recovery will outpace most other markets due to its industry makeup. San Francisco does not rely as heavily on leisure & hospitality employment as Las Vegas, Orlando, or New Orleans does, but it is a popular tourist destination and will be negatively impacted by a slowdown in travel. Large tech firms reliant on advertising like Facebook and Google saw lower revenues in 20Q2, but have seen a rebound to new record levels. Google and Facebook capture the majority of all internet ad revenue and are well-positioned for an economic rebound. Internet ad revenue was rising at a 17% annual growth rate before the pandemic hit, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Some digital products have seen soaring demand amid the pandemic. For example, communications platforms like Zoom Video and Microsoft Teams have become necessary tools for business survival, and Netflix has seen an influx of new subscribers. Business software investment growth overall has slowed a touch but continues to rise through the downturn, while ecommerce retail sales have spiked. Venture capitalists have invested heavily in locallybased start-ups, as well as mature, but still privatelyheld "unicorn" companies valued over $1 billion. Venture capital funding remained fairly robust in 2020 all things considered, but has faded from 2019 and 2018's recordsetting pace, according to PwC's MoneyTree Report, and may decline further if an uncertain economic environment shakes confidence among investors. A handful of VC firms are leaving for Texas, but Silicon Valley will remain the leading capital provider for start-ups as both are entrenched in the area, and feed off of its educational institutions, and mega tech and biotech firms. Locally based Okta, Roku, and Mulesoft each went public in 2017 with successful results, as did DocuSign and Survey Monkey in 2018. However, a number of Bay Area companies that went public in the 2010's economic expansion period are now trading below their initial IPO
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Economy San Francisco Office price. Fitbit, Lending Club, Cloudera, Dropbox, and Eventbrite have all seen their valuations deteriorate since going public, and 2020 was particularly rough for tech unicorns going public. The IPO's of Lyft, Uber, and Slack were considered flops, while market valuations for Pinterest and PagerDuty have declined after initially rising. Some local start-ups like Zoom Video did launch public offerings that performed well in 2019, but the majority were disappointing as high private market valuations, profitability concerns and the prospect of tighter regulations weighed on investors. AirBnB went public in December 2020 despite a loss in bookings due to the pandemic. AirBnB secured two billion-dollar loans in April at a slashed internal valuation as financial losses mounted, and laid off 1,900 employees or roughly a quarter of its global workforce in May. The travel company's stock soared at the onset of 2021 though, and they announced an expansion to Atlanta most recently.AirBnB's local staff had grown larger than 3,000 before the recent cuts. Despite the notable downturns among several highprofile newcomers, the NASDAQ index, which is heavily dominated by San Francisco Bay Area-based tech companies and correlates with local office using employment historically, has already recovered its coronavirus pandemic and oil shock sell-off losses of early 2020. Large-scale expansion plans from several publicly traded technology companies appear to have slowed, yet remain intact, though it will be critical to watch how the fallout from the pandemic and mobile work adoption affects the tech sector and local real estate demand moving forward. Emblematic of San Francisco's transition to a tech industry-led economy, Salesforce surpassed Wells Fargo as the city's largest employer in 2018. The customer relationship management software company continued to grow its headcount after taking occupancy in the recently delivered Salesforce Tower, but in a sign of the times, announced the adoption of remote work options. Salesforce now employs more than 9,000 based in San Francisco. Led by tech firms, roughly 350,000 jobs were created in the metro division in the 2010's economic expansion period, including more than 35,000 jobs added in 2019. On a national scale, coronavirus recession job losses wiped out all gains made in the 2010's expansion cycle, but job growth was so strong in San Francisco over the past decade, the market did not give up all of its expansion cycle gains in the recent downturn.
Facebook has added capacity for well over 5,000 employees at 181 Fremont Street and Park Tower at Transbay, two new skyscrapers recently completed in the South Financial District. Lyft, Dropbox, and Affirm more than doubled their headcounts in the past several years. Uber had aggressively increased its San Francisco headcount to more than 5,000, but rising profitability concerns led to recent job cuts, including several hundred throughout the Bay Area in the second half of 2019, and the elimination of 6,700 positions globally or 25% of its workforce and shuttering of 25 offices including Pier 70's in 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic and economic downfall that hit the company. In the finance sector, Wells Fargo's employment in the Bay Area has declined moderately for several years. Wells closed its historic Crocker building branch in late 2019 and may eventually move its headquarters out of town. Charles Schwab has also relocated many positions to lower-cost markets and reassigned its headquarters to Dallas effective 2021, in conjunction with its acquisition of TD Ameritrade, but still maintains a downtown office. Fintech start-ups like SoFi, Affirm, and Lending Club had been a bright spot, boosting employment within the sector, which was gaining momentum heading into 2020 since stagnating in 2017. However, even financial service firms have suffered losses in the coronavirus -pandemic recession. Lending Club laid off 460 employees in April 2020, accounting for 30% of its workforce. The local finance sector was devastated in the dot-com crash and slowly recovered from 2007–09 credit crisis consolidations. Employment in financial activities finally rose above its 2007 prerecession peak late in the 2010's economic expansion cycle, but never returned to levels achieved in the 1990's. San Francisco's economy was roaring ahead into 2020, as it typically does in expansion periods. Professional and business services - by far the market's largest employment and office using sector - was expanding by more than 3% annually before the coronavirus pandemic hit in March. Since the city's early gold rush founding, San Francisco has experienced rapid booms and busts, and the pandemic recession has once again impacted the local economy sharply, as history repeats itself. Based on rapid rent and pricing gains during the expansion, pockets of commercial real estate contained a heightened vulnerability to a downfall.
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Economy San Francisco Office Access to cheap capital and an expanding global economy led by technological advancements drove Bay Area commercial real estate markets to new heights over the past decade. Changes in trade policy and slowing global growth presented headwinds to the economy in the mature phases of the expansion cycle, but the lingering shutdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic has sent the country into a deep and rapid recession. The success of mitigation efforts and federal bailouts, in addition to behavior changes in response to the pandemic, will have a profound impact on national economic recovery and commercial real estate demand.
Real estate investment trusts have stockpiled cash amid the uncertain economic times and lenders were swamped by small-business owners looking for relief as emergency actions in response to the coronavirus closed down tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, theaters, gyms and stores across the country. Business closures in San Francisco are already elevated well above that of other metro's according to Yelp, and the Bay Area is still slowly opening in the new year following a second surge of coronavirus cases. Non-essential workers are advised to remain away from offices again, and most are planning for a potential return in the summer of 2021 at this point. We will be updating our analysis as more information becomes available.
SAN FRANCISCO EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS Current Level
12 Month Change
10 Year Change
5 Year Forecast
NAICS Industry
Jobs
LQ
Market
US
Market
US
Market
US
Manufacturing
37
0.4
-6.31%
-4.05%
0.51%
0.59%
0.56%
0.53%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
142
0.7
-7.09%
-3.01%
1.29%
0.86%
1.35%
0.61%
73
0.6
-6.10%
-3.10%
-0.05%
0.42%
1.28%
0.70%
Financial Activities
90
1.3
0.88%
-0.99%
2.55%
1.29%
0.09%
0.74%
Government
118
0.7
-9.83%
-5.42%
-0.12%
-0.35%
1.87%
0.99%
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
42
0.7
-3.38%
-3.37%
4.49%
2.59%
1.80%
1.14%
Education and Health Services
141
0.8
-4.11%
-3.89%
2.23%
1.56%
1.82%
1.87%
Professional and Business Services
291
1.8
-2.31%
-4.23%
4.84%
1.87%
1.98%
1.63%
Information
95
4.6
-6.15%
-6.86%
9.44%
0.02%
4.39%
2.28%
Leisure and Hospitality
106
1.0
-29.33%
-18.15%
-0.66%
0.35%
7.32%
4.38%
Other Services
37
0.9
-13.47%
-6.68%
0.66%
0.33%
2.92%
1.37%
1,098
1.0
-8.01%
-5.55%
2.51%
0.92%
2.48%
1.49%
Retail Trade
Total Employment
Source: Oxford Economics LQ = Location Quotient
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 24
Economy San Francisco Office YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH
Source: Oxford Economics
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Current Level Demographic Category
12 Month Change
10 Year Change
5 Year Forecast
Metro
US
Metro
US
Metro
US
Metro
US
1,656,102
330,665,094
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.5%
Households
627,954
123,592,047
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.3%
0.5%
Median Household Income
$127,226
$69,274
1.4%
4.4%
4.6%
3.3%
3.9%
2.1%
Labor Force
997,831
160,791,656
-5.2%
-2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
2.2%
0.8%
5.9%
6.7%
3.8%
3.0%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-
-
Population
Unemployment
Source: Oxford Economics
POPULATION GROWTH
LABOR FORCE GROWTH
INCOME GROWTH
Source: Oxford Economics
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 25
Submarkets San Francisco Office SAN FRANCISCO SUBMARKETS
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 26
Submarkets San Francisco Office SUBMARKET INVENTORY Inventory No.
Submarket
12 Month Deliveries
Under Construction
Bldgs
SF (000)
% Market
Rank
Bldgs
SF (000)
Percent
Rank
Bldgs
SF (000)
Percent
Rank
1
Bayview/Hunters Point
27
654
0.4%
27
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
2
Belmont/San Carlos
153
2,311
1.3%
23
0
0
0%
-
2
526
22.8%
6
3
Brisbane/Daly City
94
2,891
1.6%
22
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
4
Burlingame
122
3,191
1.8%
21
0
0
0%
-
6
848
26.6%
4
5
Civic Center
62
4,414
2.5%
14
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
6
Financial District
173
30,568
17.0%
2
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
7
Foster City/Redwood Shrs
111
9,691
5.4%
4
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
8
Jackson Square
123
3,321
1.8%
19
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
9
Menlo Park
269
9,093
5.1%
5
1
10
0.1%
3
12
1,478
16.2%
1
10
MidMarket
83
7,581
4.2%
6
1
466
6.1%
1
0
-
-
-
11
Mission Bay/China Basin
31
4,165
2.3%
15
0
0
0%
-
4
1,162
27.9%
3
12
Mission/Potrero
185
3,605
2.0%
18
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
13
Peninsula Coastline
137
674
0.4%
26
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
14
Redwood City
314
7,462
4.2%
7
3
66
0.9%
2
3
282
3.8%
9
15
Rincon/South Beach
133
7,124
4.0%
8
0
0
0%
-
1
268
3.8%
10
16
San Bruno/Millbrae
85
2,259
1.3%
24
0
0
0%
-
1
173
7.7%
13
17
San Mateo
318
9,876
5.5%
3
0
0
0%
-
2
433
4.4%
7
18
Showplace Square
46
3,779
2.1%
16
0
0
0%
-
2
228
6.0%
11
19
South Financial District
166
31,164
17.3%
1
0
0
0%
-
1
1,250
4.0%
2
20
South of Market
230
4,749
2.6%
12
0
0
0%
-
1
25
0.5%
14
21
South San Francisco
137
7,103
4.0%
9
1
4
0.1%
4
2
421
5.9%
8
22
Southern City
180
1,342
0.7%
25
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
23
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
3
48
0%
28
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
24
Union Square
116
5,558
3.1%
10
0
0
0%
-
2
188
3.4%
12
25
Van Ness/Chinatown
167
3,295
1.8%
20
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
26
Waterfront/North Beach
103
4,469
2.5%
13
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
27
West of Van Ness
389
5,502
3.1%
11
0
0
0%
-
0
-
-
-
28
Yerba Buena
71
3,777
2.1%
17
0
0
0%
-
2
699
18.5%
5
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 27
Submarkets San Francisco Office SUBMARKET RENT Market Rent No.
12 Month Market Rent
QTD Annualized Market Rent
Submarket
Per SF
Rank
Growth
Rank
Growth
Rank
1
Bayview/Hunters Point
$39.37
28
-7.3%
11
-1.0%
16
2
Belmont/San Carlos
$58.57
15
-7.2%
10
-0.7%
9
3
Brisbane/Daly City
$48.71
25
-6.6%
5
-1.4%
23
4
Burlingame
$53.80
20
-5.4%
1
-1.0%
15
5
Civic Center
$57.04
16
-9.1%
17
-0.9%
13
6
Financial District
$68.65
4
-7.9%
13
-2.1%
27
7
Foster City/Redwood Shrs
$63.74
6
-5.5%
2
-1.3%
22
8
Jackson Square
$59.42
11
-10.2%
24
-0.5%
4
9
Menlo Park
$80.76
1
-6.8%
8
-0.6%
6
10
MidMarket
$59.93
10
-10.0%
23
-1.0%
14
11
Mission Bay/China Basin
$69.89
3
-6.8%
7
-1.8%
25
12
Mission/Potrero
$48.24
26
-10.8%
25
-0.4%
2
13
Peninsula Coastline
$41.83
27
-9.9%
20
-0.5%
3
14
Redwood City
$66.44
5
-6.7%
6
-1.2%
18
15
Rincon/South Beach
$62.02
7
-11.0%
27
-1.2%
20
16
San Bruno/Millbrae
$49.81
22
-7.5%
12
-0.3%
1
17
San Mateo
$60.60
9
-6.2%
3
-0.6%
7
18
Showplace Square
$58.74
14
-11.4%
28
-0.7%
10
19
South Financial District
$73.08
2
-7.1%
9
-2.0%
26
20
South of Market
$54.80
18
-11.0%
26
-1.0%
17
21
South San Francisco
$54.60
19
-6.4%
4
-1.6%
24
22
Southern City
$51.17
21
-9.5%
19
-0.6%
8
23
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
$49.48
24
-8.9%
16
-1.2%
19
24
Union Square
$59.03
12
-9.5%
18
-0.5%
5
25
Van Ness/Chinatown
$49.51
23
-8.1%
14
-0.9%
12
26
Waterfront/North Beach
$56.07
17
-10.0%
22
-6.6%
28
27
West of Van Ness
$58.96
13
-8.7%
15
-0.8%
11
28
Yerba Buena
$61.86
8
-10.0%
21
-1.3%
21
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 28
Submarkets San Francisco Office SUBMARKET VACANCY & NET ABSORPTION Vacancy No.
Submarket
12 Month Absorption
SF
Percent
Rank
SF
% of Inv
Rank
Construc. Ratio
1
Bayview/Hunters Point
42,077
6.4%
5
(22,878)
-3.5%
6
-
2
Belmont/San Carlos
279,545
12.1%
18
(123,109)
-5.3%
13
-
3
Brisbane/Daly City
225,387
7.8%
12
(17,516)
-0.6%
4
-
4
Burlingame
395,442
12.4%
19
(116,332)
-3.6%
12
-
5
Civic Center
199,554
4.5%
2
(114,597)
-2.6%
11
-
6
Financial District
4,790,894
15.7%
23
(2,662,790)
-8.7%
28
-
7
Foster City/Redwood Shrs
1,132,540
11.7%
17
(262,252)
-2.7%
18
-
8
Jackson Square
596,937
18.0%
25
(502,814)
-15.1%
24
-
9
Menlo Park
637,508
7.0%
8
(205,795)
-2.3%
17
-
10
MidMarket
724,612
9.6%
14
63,890
0.8%
1
7.3
11
Mission Bay/China Basin
301,602
7.2%
9
(270,185)
-6.5%
20
-
12
Mission/Potrero
266,498
7.4%
11
(77,449)
-2.1%
9
-
13
Peninsula Coastline
29,653
4.4%
1
(6,668)
-1.0%
3
-
14
Redwood City
504,660
6.8%
6
(187,382)
-2.5%
16
-
15
Rincon/South Beach
941,199
13.2%
20
(520,071)
-7.3%
25
-
16
San Bruno/Millbrae
209,595
9.3%
13
(21,742)
-1.0%
5
-
17
San Mateo
1,384,831
14.0%
21
(481,971)
-4.9%
23
-
18
Showplace Square
19
South Financial District
20 21
275,118
7.3%
10
(150,487)
-4.0%
15
-
3,402,143
10.9%
16
(1,519,958)
-4.9%
27
-
South of Market
818,477
17.2%
24
(550,529)
-11.6%
26
-
South San Francisco
494,084
7.0%
7
(148,124)
-2.1%
14
-
22
Southern City
68,358
5.1%
3
(27,741)
-2.1%
7
-
23
Treasure/Yerba Buena Isl…
24
Union Square
25 26
-
-
-
0
0%
-
-
1,026,465
18.5%
26
(435,116)
-7.8%
22
-
Van Ness/Chinatown
342,244
10.4%
15
(70,542)
-2.1%
8
-
Waterfront/North Beach
675,468
15.1%
22
(266,046)
-6.0%
19
-
27
West of Van Ness
315,959
5.7%
4
(97,808)
-1.8%
10
-
28
Yerba Buena
714,882
18.9%
27
(370,172)
-9.8%
21
-
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 29
Supply & Demand Trends San Francisco Office OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Net Absorption
Year
SF
SF Growth
% Growth
SF
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
187,201,002
559,199
0.3%
1,386,561
0.7%
0.4
2024
186,641,803
(79,853)
0%
1,980,114
1.1%
-
2023
186,721,656
919,612
0.5%
3,814,893
2.0%
0.2
2022
185,802,044
430,081
0.2%
1,928,932
1.0%
0.2
2021
185,371,963
5,708,606
3.2%
(4,281,833)
-2.3%
-
YTD
179,663,357
0
0%
(1,981,414)
-1.1%
-
2020
179,663,357
362,984
0.2%
(7,485,767)
-4.2%
-
2019
179,300,373
3,310,619
1.9%
2,844,273
1.6%
1.2
2018
175,989,754
3,812,759
2.2%
4,743,176
2.7%
0.8
2017
172,176,995
598,490
0.3%
203,014
0.1%
2.9
2016
171,578,505
2,729,009
1.6%
1,919,588
1.1%
1.4
2015
168,849,496
2,019,389
1.2%
2,911,071
1.7%
0.7
2014
166,830,107
167,382
0.1%
3,507,182
2.1%
0
2013
166,662,725
(584,208)
-0.3%
2,184,750
1.3%
-
2012
167,246,933
287,209
0.2%
1,309,296
0.8%
0.2
2011
166,959,724
(618,976)
-0.4%
3,038,483
1.8%
-
2010
167,578,700
39,345
0%
(650,100)
-0.4%
-
2009
167,539,355
294,522
0.2%
(4,513,640)
-2.7%
-
4 & 5 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Net Absorption
Year
SF
SF Growth
% Growth
SF
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
103,446,484
820,785
0.8%
1,196,566
1.2%
0.7
2024
102,625,699
206,125
0.2%
1,383,527
1.3%
0.1
2023
102,419,574
1,250,000
1.2%
2,778,524
2.7%
0.4
2022
101,169,574
769,740
0.8%
2,229,302
2.2%
0.3
2021
100,399,834
5,633,287
5.9%
(1,300,834)
-1.3%
-
YTD
94,766,547
0
0%
(1,323,556)
-1.4%
-
2020
94,766,547
467,859
0.5%
(3,045,957)
-3.2%
-
2019
94,298,688
3,114,210
3.4%
2,925,853
3.1%
1.1
2018
91,184,478
4,117,032
4.7%
4,886,141
5.4%
0.8
2017
87,067,446
839,891
1.0%
423,894
0.5%
2.0
2016
86,227,555
2,182,188
2.6%
1,839,828
2.1%
1.2
2015
84,045,367
2,036,622
2.5%
2,305,857
2.7%
0.9
2014
82,008,745
668,078
0.8%
2,317,828
2.8%
0.3
2013
81,340,667
39,359
0%
1,617,952
2.0%
0
2012
81,301,308
492,599
0.6%
1,801,538
2.2%
0.3
2011
80,808,709
145,205
0.2%
1,282,688
1.6%
0.1
2010
80,663,504
299,397
0.4%
(66,408)
-0.1%
-
2009
80,364,107
158,267
0.2%
(2,289,621)
-2.8%
-
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 30
Supply & Demand Trends San Francisco Office 3 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Net Absorption
Year
SF
SF Growth
% Growth
SF
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
52,669,744
528
0%
201,846
0.4%
0
2024
52,669,216
105
0%
440,789
0.8%
0
2023
52,669,111
0
0%
728,661
1.4%
0
2022
52,669,111
0
0%
10,327
0%
0
2021
52,669,111
327,337
0.6%
(1,651,408)
-3.1%
-
YTD
52,341,774
0
0%
(393,676)
-0.8%
-
2020
52,341,774
(57,497)
-0.1%
(2,974,085)
-5.7%
-
2019
52,399,271
183,229
0.4%
371,232
0.7%
0.5
2018
52,216,042
(103,261)
-0.2%
64,690
0.1%
-
2017
52,319,303
(195,893)
-0.4%
(334,136)
-0.6%
-
2016
52,515,196
744,655
1.4%
443,610
0.8%
1.7
2015
51,770,541
115,338
0.2%
430,687
0.8%
0.3
2014
51,655,203
(352,969)
-0.7%
1,010,278
2.0%
-
2013
52,008,172
(122,392)
-0.2%
647,974
1.2%
-
2012
52,130,564
(38,528)
-0.1%
(409,374)
-0.8%
-
2011
52,169,092
(525,525)
-1.0%
1,577,995
3.0%
-
2010
52,694,617
(14,751)
0%
(371,880)
-0.7%
-
2009
52,709,368
398,287
0.8%
(1,114,873)
-2.1%
-
1 & 2 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND Inventory
Net Absorption
Year
SF
SF Growth
% Growth
SF
% of Inv
Construction Ratio
2025
31,084,774
(262,114)
-0.8%
(11,851)
0%
-
2024
31,346,888
(286,083)
-0.9%
155,798
0.5%
-
2023
31,632,971
(330,388)
-1.0%
307,708
1.0%
-
2022
31,963,359
(339,659)
-1.1%
(310,697)
-1.0%
-
2021
32,303,018
(252,018)
-0.8%
(1,329,591)
-4.1%
-
YTD
32,555,036
0
0%
(264,182)
-0.8%
-
2020
32,555,036
(47,378)
-0.1%
(1,465,725)
-4.5%
-
2019
32,602,414
13,180
0%
(452,812)
-1.4%
-
2018
32,589,234
(201,012)
-0.6%
(207,655)
-0.6%
-
2017
32,790,246
(45,508)
-0.1%
113,256
0.3%
-
2016
32,835,754
(197,834)
-0.6%
(363,850)
-1.1%
-
2015
33,033,588
(132,571)
-0.4%
174,527
0.5%
-
2014
33,166,159
(147,727)
-0.4%
179,076
0.5%
-
2013
33,313,886
(501,175)
-1.5%
(81,176)
-0.2%
-
2012
33,815,061
(166,862)
-0.5%
(82,868)
-0.2%
-
2011
33,981,923
(238,656)
-0.7%
177,800
0.5%
-
2010
34,220,579
(245,301)
-0.7%
(211,812)
-0.6%
-
2009
34,465,880
(262,032)
-0.8%
(1,109,146)
-3.2%
-
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 31
Rent & Vacancy San Francisco Office OVERALL RENT & VACANCY Market Rent
Vacancy
Year
Per SF
Index
% Growth
Vs Hist Peak
SF
Percent
Ppts Chg
2025
$67.48
186
3.3%
-4.1%
21,771,763
11.6%
-0.5%
2024
$65.33
180
3.5%
-7.1%
22,553,434
12.1%
-1.0%
2023
$63.11
174
3.6%
-10.3%
24,458,422
13.1%
-1.6%
2022
$60.91
168
1.3%
-13.4%
27,312,732
14.7%
-0.8%
2021
$60.12
166
-6.3%
-14.5%
28,803,837
15.5%
5.1%
YTD
$64.05
176
-0.2%
-9.0%
20,795,732
11.6%
1.1%
2020
$64.19
177
-8.8%
-8.8%
18,814,318
10.5%
4.4%
2019
$70.35
194
4.7%
0%
10,965,567
6.1%
0.1%
2018
$67.20
185
9.4%
-4.5%
10,568,560
6.0%
-0.7%
2017
$61.40
169
2.8%
-12.7%
11,498,977
6.7%
0.2%
2016
$59.71
165
1.8%
-15.1%
11,103,508
6.5%
0.2%
2015
$58.64
162
15.1%
-16.7%
10,528,087
6.2%
-0.6%
2014
$50.96
140
10.6%
-27.6%
11,419,769
6.8%
-2.0%
2013
$46.07
127
13.1%
-34.5%
14,759,569
8.9%
-1.6%
2012
$40.74
112
13.5%
-42.1%
17,528,527
10.5%
-0.6%
2011
$35.89
99
17.7%
-49.0%
18,550,614
11.1%
-2.1%
2010
$30.49
84
0.5%
-56.7%
22,208,073
13.3%
0.4%
2009
$30.33
84
-16.4%
-56.9%
21,521,628
12.8%
2.9%
4 & 5 STAR RENT & VACANCY Market Rent
Vacancy
Year
Per SF
Index
% Growth
Vs Hist Peak
SF
Percent
Ppts Chg
2025
$74.98
187
3.3%
-2.4%
11,711,998
11.3%
-0.5%
2024
$72.57
181
3.6%
-5.5%
12,088,563
11.8%
-1.2%
2023
$70.08
175
3.6%
-8.8%
13,266,492
13.0%
-1.7%
2022
$67.62
168
1.3%
-12.0%
14,795,016
14.6%
-1.6%
2021
$66.75
166
-6.5%
-13.1%
16,254,578
16.2%
6.4%
YTD
$71.16
177
-0.3%
-7.4%
10,644,011
11.2%
1.4%
2020
$71.40
178
-7.0%
-7.0%
9,320,455
9.8%
3.7%
2019
$76.81
191
5.7%
0%
5,806,639
6.2%
0%
2018
$72.69
181
10.7%
-5.4%
5,618,282
6.2%
-1.2%
2017
$65.69
164
2.6%
-14.5%
6,387,391
7.3%
0.4%
2016
$64.05
160
1.3%
-16.6%
5,971,401
6.9%
-0.1%
2015
$63.22
158
14.3%
-17.7%
5,863,041
7.0%
-0.5%
2014
$55.29
138
9.3%
-28.0%
6,132,276
7.5%
-2.1%
2013
$50.57
126
12.2%
-34.2%
7,782,026
9.6%
-1.9%
2012
$45.06
112
12.1%
-41.3%
9,360,619
11.5%
-1.7%
2011
$40.21
100
20.0%
-47.6%
10,669,558
13.2%
-1.4%
2010
$33.52
84
0.7%
-56.4%
11,807,041
14.6%
0.4%
2009
$33.30
83
-17.0%
-56.7%
11,441,236
14.2%
3.0%
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 32
Rent & Vacancy San Francisco Office 3 STAR RENT & VACANCY Market Rent
Vacancy
Year
Per SF
Index
% Growth
Vs Hist Peak
SF
Percent
Ppts Chg
2025
$60.61
194
3.3%
-8.1%
6,471,570
12.3%
-0.4%
2024
$58.66
188
3.5%
-11.0%
6,673,000
12.7%
-0.8%
2023
$56.66
182
3.6%
-14.0%
7,113,717
13.5%
-1.4%
2022
$54.66
175
1.4%
-17.1%
7,842,378
14.9%
0%
2021
$53.93
173
-5.9%
-18.2%
7,852,705
14.9%
3.7%
YTD
$57.34
184
0.1%
-13.0%
6,267,631
12.0%
0.8%
2020
$57.30
184
-13.1%
-13.1%
5,873,955
11.2%
5.6%
2019
$65.92
211
4.4%
0%
2,957,367
5.6%
-0.4%
2018
$63.16
203
8.7%
-4.2%
3,169,915
6.1%
-0.3%
2017
$58.10
186
4.1%
-11.9%
3,337,866
6.4%
0.3%
2016
$55.84
179
0.9%
-15.3%
3,199,623
6.1%
0.5%
2015
$55.32
177
17.4%
-16.1%
2,898,578
5.6%
-0.6%
2014
$47.12
151
12.4%
-28.5%
3,213,927
6.2%
-2.6%
2013
$41.92
134
14.0%
-36.4%
4,577,174
8.8%
-1.5%
2012
$36.77
118
17.3%
-44.2%
5,347,540
10.3%
0.7%
2011
$31.34
101
16.2%
-52.4%
4,976,694
9.5%
-3.9%
2010
$26.97
86
1.6%
-59.1%
7,080,214
13.4%
0.7%
2009
$26.54
85
-14.9%
-59.7%
6,726,085
12.8%
2.8%
1 & 2 STAR RENT & VACANCY Market Rent
Vacancy
Year
Per SF
Index
% Growth
Vs Hist Peak
SF
Percent
Ppts Chg
2025
$55.01
169
3.1%
-3.8%
3,588,195
11.5%
-0.6%
2024
$53.34
164
3.3%
-6.7%
3,791,871
12.1%
-0.8%
2023
$51.62
159
3.4%
-9.7%
4,078,213
12.9%
-1.7%
2022
$49.90
154
1.2%
-12.7%
4,675,338
14.6%
0.1%
2021
$49.31
152
-6.3%
-13.8%
4,696,554
14.5%
3.4%
YTD
$52.54
162
-0.2%
-8.1%
3,884,090
11.9%
0.8%
2020
$52.62
162
-8.0%
-8.0%
3,619,908
11.1%
4.4%
2019
$57.19
176
1.3%
0%
2,201,561
6.8%
1.3%
2018
$56.46
174
6.1%
-1.3%
1,780,363
5.5%
0.1%
2017
$53.22
164
1.8%
-6.9%
1,773,720
5.4%
-0.5%
2016
$52.31
161
5.5%
-8.5%
1,932,484
5.9%
0.5%
2015
$49.59
153
13.9%
-13.3%
1,766,468
5.3%
-0.9%
2014
$43.52
134
12.7%
-23.9%
2,073,566
6.3%
-1.0%
2013
$38.62
119
15.1%
-32.5%
2,400,369
7.2%
-1.1%
2012
$33.56
103
13.2%
-41.3%
2,820,368
8.3%
-0.2%
2011
$29.65
91
11.3%
-48.1%
2,904,362
8.5%
-1.2%
2010
$26.63
82
-1.9%
-53.4%
3,320,818
9.7%
0%
2009
$27.15
84
-16.4%
-52.5%
3,354,307
9.7%
2.5%
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 33
Sale Trends San Francisco Office OVERALL SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/SF
Avg Cap Rate
Price/SF
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$882.28
286
4.2%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$844.41
274
4.2%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$799.06
259
4.2%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$752.80
244
4.3%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$736.32
239
4.4%
YTD
3
$8M
0%
$2,666,667
$730.73
-
$798.94
259
4.5%
2020
82
$3.7B
2.0%
$51,365,084
$1,014.92
4.4%
$799.99
260
4.5%
2019
227
$9B
6.1%
$64,738,130
$841.91
5.1%
$843.23
274
4.4%
2018
188
$4.2B
4.2%
$37,321,825
$662.36
4.7%
$790.86
257
4.4%
2017
219
$4.3B
4.6%
$40,973,139
$615.40
5.1%
$725.12
235
4.5%
2016
215
$6.9B
7.9%
$50,853,617
$596.25
4.8%
$705.95
229
4.4%
2015
243
$5.2B
7.3%
$40,063,114
$634.76
4.8%
$667.36
217
4.5%
2014
283
$8.1B
9.4%
$46,556,116
$538.09
4.9%
$571.17
185
4.8%
2013
223
$2.9B
4.8%
$21,177,447
$383.44
5.3%
$484.98
157
5.2%
2012
305
$6.3B
9.5%
$40,144,322
$446.91
5.3%
$415.12
135
5.6%
2011
212
$3.1B
7.8%
$22,047,052
$259.26
6.4%
$367.99
119
6.0%
2010
125
$2B
4.8%
$22,358,637
$261.58
6.6%
$298.67
97
6.8%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
4 & 5 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/SF
Avg Cap Rate
Price/SF
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$932.41
272
4.2%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$892.05
260
4.2%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$843.73
246
4.2%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$794.53
231
4.2%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$776.98
226
4.4%
YTD
-
-
-
-
-
-
$842.66
245
4.5%
2020
9
$2.3B
2.3%
$254,000,244
$1,046.63
-
$845.14
246
4.5%
2019
38
$6B
7.3%
$158,115,360
$876.34
4.7%
$891.92
260
4.3%
2018
26
$2.5B
4.4%
$107,866,103
$727.21
4.8%
$840.88
245
4.4%
2017
29
$3.2B
5.9%
$119,520,399
$657.68
5.5%
$771.68
225
4.4%
2016
34
$4.6B
8.3%
$152,368,766
$665.99
4.4%
$755.51
220
4.3%
2015
39
$3.3B
8.1%
$144,599,433
$715.19
4.6%
$717.37
209
4.4%
2014
46
$6.1B
12.5%
$134,905,390
$594.64
4.0%
$618.99
180
4.6%
2013
20
$1.9B
5.0%
$93,201,983
$462.48
4.9%
$531.73
155
5.0%
2012
37
$5.1B
12.3%
$140,668,072
$507.73
4.9%
$458.59
134
5.4%
2011
18
$1.3B
5.7%
$72,488,754
$285.34
5.5%
$409.73
119
5.7%
2010
15
$1.4B
5.4%
$106,529,759
$351.26
5.3%
$334.49
97
6.5%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 34
Sale Trends San Francisco Office 3 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/SF
Avg Cap Rate
Price/SF
Price Index
Cap Rate
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$829.11
311
4.3%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$793.46
298
4.3%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$750.99
282
4.3%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$707.63
266
4.4%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$692.16
260
4.5%
YTD
-
-
-
-
-
-
$749.97
282
4.6%
2020
27
$891.3M
1.9%
$44,179,001
$876.70
-
$750.23
282
4.6%
2019
76
$2.4B
5.9%
$47,257,779
$779.73
5.5%
$784.73
295
4.5%
2018
48
$1.2B
4.1%
$33,463,268
$588.23
5.2%
$725.82
273
4.6%
2017
47
$566.3M
2.4%
$21,755,772
$491.80
5.8%
$664.86
250
4.6%
2016
80
$1.8B
9.8%
$38,055,808
$484.41
5.2%
$643.14
242
4.6%
2015
64
$1.4B
7.7%
$43,761,855
$547.34
5.0%
$605.46
227
4.7%
2014
84
$1.4B
6.9%
$28,704,605
$421.50
5.3%
$514.77
193
4.9%
2013
69
$706.6M
4.1%
$17,881,440
$345.38
5.2%
$430.08
162
5.4%
2012
73
$891.6M
6.3%
$23,343,859
$325.78
5.8%
$365.90
137
5.9%
2011
96
$1.6B
13.6%
$23,131,776
$242.91
6.5%
$320.71
120
6.3%
2010
47
$456.1M
5.9%
$14,192,176
$149.39
8.0%
$258.09
97
7.2%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
1 & 2 STAR SALES Completed Transactions (1)
Market Pricing Trends (2)
Year
Deals
Volume
Turnover
Avg Price
Avg Price/SF
Avg Cap Rate
Price/SF
Price Index
2025
-
-
-
-
-
-
$811.18
305
Cap Rate
4.2%
2024
-
-
-
-
-
-
$777.50
292
4.2%
2023
-
-
-
-
-
-
$736.84
277
4.3%
2022
-
-
-
-
-
-
$695.07
261
4.3%
2021
-
-
-
-
-
-
$680.36
256
4.4%
YTD
3
$8M
0%
$2,666,667
$730.73
-
$741.15
279
4.6%
2020
46
$487M
1.3%
$11,365,208
$1,188.83
4.4%
$738.97
278
4.6%
2019
113
$567.3M
3.0%
$11,251,787
$778.32
3.8%
$785.29
295
4.4%
2018
114
$512.1M
3.6%
$9,401,980
$588.50
4.5%
$739.39
278
4.5%
2017
143
$503.9M
4.5%
$9,428,104
$544.85
4.6%
$676.71
255
4.5%
2016
101
$521.3M
3.8%
$8,937,072
$539.42
4.6%
$652.29
245
4.5%
2015
140
$516.6M
4.4%
$6,937,653
$498.52
4.6%
$610.81
230
4.6%
2014
153
$633.3M
5.9%
$7,611,080
$408.91
5.4%
$512.54
193
4.9%
2013
134
$330.2M
5.7%
$4,139,181
$221.79
6.2%
$427.31
161
5.3%
2012
195
$393.6M
7.5%
$4,662,924
$263.05
5.4%
$358.53
135
5.8%
2011
98
$209.6M
4.0%
$3,867,204
$243.92
6.8%
$313.69
118
6.3%
2010
63
$113.2M
1.6%
$2,527,737
$238.31
6.3%
$252.05
95
7.2%
(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period. (2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.
Copyrighted report licensed to COMPASS - 1028085
2/22/2021 Page 35