Weekly Economic Report
October 14, 2014
Canadian Employment Jumps Again! Canadian Employment Report - September In an increasingly uncertain world, the Canadian employment jumped by 74,100 in September. This is significantly higher than the 11,000 decline in the prior month and is the biggest gain in more than a year. The details of the release were just as impressive as the headline, as full-time jobs accounted for almost all of the gains (+69,300) and private sector payrolls exploded with a record 123,600 gains after the record 111,800 decline in the previous month. The jobless rate tumbled 2 ticks to a cycle-low of 6.8%; hours worked rose a study 0.3% ; wages receded somewhat to a 2.1% y/y pace from 2.5%. In the midst of the growing gloom in much of the rest of the world, Canada’s job market has held up remarkably well. Inevitable, there will be a slew of renewed questions about the quality of the jobs data; however, this standalone report is quite impressive.
Canadian Housing Creeps Upwards
Fed’s Labor Market Index… Still Improving
Canadian Housing Starts - September Canadian housing starts inched up in September to 197,343 annualized units from 196,283 in the prior month. The result was as expected, and leaves starts for all of Q3 up slightly from the prior quarter at 197.8k. However, while the surface is steady and calm, there’s plenty of churning at the regional level.
U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index - September
The Federal Reserve’s new Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) rose 2.5 points in September, a little faster than the prior month. The current level and recent three-month average British Columbia is rather steady, as starts slipped in September; Alberta is still (2.7) is modestly below the mean (2.1) in hot, as starts rose again in September; Manitoba and Saskatchewan are cooling; economic expansions since 1976. Ontario is mixed, as Toronto condo starts hit a 4.5 year low while at the same time there are 56,000 condos under construction; Quebec is thawing as the The LMCI is a summary measure of 19 monthly province remains near 13-year lows; Atlantic Canada is frozen as it continues indicators, and tends to decline during recessions to observe to linger around the lowest-level since the late 1990s. and increase in expansions; although the LMCI Housing starts remain well behaved overall in Canada, but recent permit does not answer important questions of how activity suggests that some upside momentum should be coming in the months much slack is available in labour markets, it can inform the rate at which the economy is moving ahead. toward full employment.
Important Economic Statistics
The Week Ahead U.S. Producer Price Index – September - Wednesday, October 15, 2014 at 8:30 am
U.S. Retail Sales - September - Wednesday, October 15, 2014 at 8:30 am
Canadian Consumer Price Index – September - Friday, October 17, 2014 at 8:30 am
U.S. Housing Starts – September - Friday, October 17, 2014 at 8:30 am
Ronald Chow, Chief Economist • ronaldchow@crescentschool.org