9th YES CAMP Lectures

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION and DISASTER PREPAREDNESS -

a challenge for development Youth Environment Summit - Baguio 2 May 2011

Going to school on a bamboo raft

70

Rain

1005

60

Barometric Pressure Wind Direction and Wind Speed

1000

50 40

995 30 20

990

10 0

985 12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Time (pht)

•

The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between 9 AM and 1 PM.

•

Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM

Pressure (hPa)

Rain (mm)

Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009)

Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory (21-28 Sep 2009) 500 Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm

Accumulated Rain

Daily Rain (mm)

400

Daily Rain 26 Sep 2009 368.6 mm

Daily Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September

300 200 100 0 9/21

9/22

9/23

9/24

9/25

9/26

9/27

9/28

•

“Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila Observatory on September 26, 2009.

•

This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.

Marcos Highway Bridge on Marikina River.

8 meters high

Inundation of the Provident Village in Marikina City

5 meters high

Mangahan Floodway: How efficient is it now.

Originally designed with a width of 260 m with a high water level at 14 m at the exit section of floodway with 1 m freeboard.

During Typhoon Ondoy, about 3,000 CMS went through Mangahan Floodway resulting in 2-3 meters flooding above the freeboard.

Closer Look

The Ondoy tragedy is due to an extreme event ‌

BUT‌..

Magnitude and extent could have been much less Given wider and deeper channel ways Greater capacities of natural retention ponds For the future, among others we should: increase, widen and deepen our channel ways, implement easement rules strictly, reforest, allocate retention ponds

Climate Change: our changing world

What’s it all about? Global Fever (Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Data set TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)

Climate Change Observed facts, future projections and risks in a warming world

Warming trends of the last century Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

Methane Carbon Dioxide

CO2

CH4

Nitrous Oxide

NO2 SF6

H2O Water vapor

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!

HFCs

CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs N2 O CO2 CH4 CH4 HFCs N O PFCs SF6CO2 CH 2 CO2 4CH4 CO2CO2 SF6CO2 CO2CO SF6 2

PFCs

The Greenhouse Effect

A Dangerous Experiment

CO2 Global temp CH4

• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane & nitrous oxide have increased as a result of human activities since 1750.

– Pre industrial value: 280 ppm – 2005 value: 379 ppm

Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change

• 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12th warmest years since 1850 th Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

GHG Sources in Phil.

(9,198 kt CO2)

(50,038 kt CO2)

TOTAL: 103,085 kt CO2 Source: 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory (33,137 kt CO2)

(10,711 kt CO2)

World has gotten warmer. It will continue to get hotter in this century and beyond.

What’s it all We are causing this dangerous about? trend.

To summarize…

More precipitation from increased evaporation due to higher temp

Annual mean precipitation expected to increase about 14% in East Asia – but this is not distributed evenly in the region

Projected precipitation changes ADB Study on Economic Impacts of CC in Southeast Asia: - Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam will be generally drier in next 2-3 decades - Philippines will be generally wetter til the end of this century Changes in annual mean precipitation in % (period 2071/2100 compared to 1961/1990, SRES A2) http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Cotabato, August 2009 400,000 people displaced

Laguna, Sept 2009

Sept 27, 2009 - Mindoro Occidental

Baguio, Oct 2009

Pangasinan, Oct 2009

HAZARD

A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

Risk: Climate Change (Rainfall)

Rainfall Hazards

Disasters: Earth falls •

Mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped 459.2 mm of rain on the area in the space of 3 days.

Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte (Feb 2006)

•

In Dec 2003, at least 200 died from landslides and flooding after the area experienced the heaviest rainfall in 25 years.

San Ricardo, Southern Leyte (Dec 2003)

Rising Sea Levels

• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands • Erode beaches • Intensify flooding

Sea level rise relative to 1880 (cm)

Observed consequences Sea level rise of past 140 years

15 - 20 cm

Year

Metro Manila

Many of our LGUs are highly vulnerable – located in coastal areas

Rising Sea Levels

• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands • Erode beaches • Intensify flooding • Increase the salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables

Developing countries, will be hit soonest and hardest.

Adaptation provides the way to prepare for and respond to these impacts.

This is the challenge we face.

SALTWATER INTRUSION 2003

WATER RESOURCES Country

Total Resources

2000 m3/person

World

42,655.0

7,045

Asia

13,508.0

3,668

United States of America

2,460.0

8,838

Japan

460.0

3,393

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

190.4

35,049

Malaysia

580.0

26,074

Myanmar

880.6

19,306

Indonesia

2,838.0

13,380

Cambodia

120.6

10,795

Vietnam

366.5

4,591

Philippines

146.01/

1,9071/

Thailand

110.02/

1,8542/

• Only 2.56% of the world’s water is freshwater

At Manila’s South Harbor mean sea level rose at about 2 millimeters per year from 1902 to the early 1960’s. . .

1770 MLD in 2004 (CEST 2004)

. . then started rising ten times as fast. WHY?989 MLD in 1990

Groundwater withdrawal!

778 MLD

250 MLD

<20 million liters per day (MLD)

(JICA 1992)

Metro Manila`s groundwater demand is still increasing.

Consequent subsidence will continue and may even accelerate!

Benchmarks used for re-leveling (1978 vs 2000) survey (Jacob

Tuff

1.4 0

1.4 6

0.7 6

0.7 0.1 9 0.8 0.9 6 0.7 0.9 0.9 8 6 0.6 7 0.9 5 5 0.7 6 4 3 0.6 0.6 7 Coastal/Alluvial 1

0.4 3

0.5 7 0.4 6 0.4 0.4 7 6

0.5 7 0.5 9 0.5 1

0.4 6

2004) Maximum magnitude of subsidence â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1.46 m (6.1 cm/y) Change in height of maximum high tide, from 1991 to 2002 based on social survey ranges from 0.5 - 1.0 m (4.5 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 9.1 cm/y) There appears to be an acceleration in rate of subsidence in recent years.

Lateral variation in magnitude of subsidence is not a function of underlying lithology.

Based on the IPCC middle range scenario, entire East Asia Region will experience temperature rise of about 2.5C by end of the century

*

Winter temps will change more than summer temps.

• Minimum daily temp will increase more than max. daily temp • Land will warm more than oceans, causing stronger monsoon •

Higher latitudes and altitudes will experience greater warming

•

Number of frost days will decline, precipitation more rain that snowfall

Risk: Climate Change (Temperature)

Temperature Hazards

Across Society Vulnerable sectors – – – – –

Agriculture Freshwater Health Biodiversity Forests

ENSO drought events and rice

1oC increase leads to 15% decrease in rice yield From: www.sciencentral.com: Cassman, IRRI, National Academy of Sciences

El Ni単o and Philippine Crops

Source: Impacts of Climate Change in Asia, Burning our Future, Greenpeace

Climate Change Impacts • Increase in sea surface temperatures of about 0.50C can already initiate coral bleaching • 1995 & 1998 coral bleaching events (e.g., Tubbataha Reef Marine Park,

Bolinao, Kalayaan Island Group, NW Palawan) Licuanan et al., 2001

• June-Nov 1998 coral bleaching led to 46% decrease in coral cover and about 49% of overall coral death in the area

Arceo, et. al. Coral Bleaching in the Philippines. Disturbing Climate. 2001 World Wildlife Fund. Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines

CORAL BLEACHING & DEATH

Coral reefs occupy 1% of total earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s surface but is home to 25% of marine life

40 Million Filipinos depend on seafood as their primary source of protein.

50% of Filipinos depend on agriculture /mariculture as their primary source of livelihood.

More intense and longer droughts since 1970 particularly in the tropics and subtropics due to increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.

There is observational evidence of increase intensity of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since 1970 correlated with the increase in sea surface temperature.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent.

While hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

Graffiti over East Asia

CLIMATE CHANGE… • These changes are happening faster than ever before.

• They have begun & will continue for the foreseeable future.

• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.

• There are no assurances that natural or human systems can adapt quickly enough.

In summary, harm’s way: • Typhoon – Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)

• Drought (El Nino)

– Mindanao (central, west)

• Climate Change

– Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central) – Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)

Aggravated by loss of forests which serve as carbon sinks & watersheds

â&#x20AC;˘ Half of the forests that originally covered 46% of the Earth's land surface are gone. â&#x20AC;˘ Only one-fifth of the Earth's original forests remain pristine and undisturbed

LAND RESOURCES EROSION CLASSES, 1993 Unclassified 1%

No Erosion 24% Severe Erosion 17%

Moderate Erosion 28%

Slight Erosion 30%

CLIMATE IMPACTS Environmental Destruction Economic Disruption Social Dislocation Political Destabilization

Philippines â&#x20AC;&#x201C; one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters - Due to its geographic location in the Pacific Ring of Fire , it has many fault lines - Over 200 volcanoes, 20 of which are active - Visited by an average of 20 typhoons annually

Historical typhoon track in the Philippines

Geohazard

It is a condition/s of the environment brought about by a geological phenomenon/na, t hat has/have the potential of causing loss of lives and damage to property (Risk).

HAZARD

Hazard - rock will fall

RISK

Risk - rock fall will harm couple

Philippines â&#x20AC;&#x201C; one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters The natural hazards of geologic & hydrometeorologic origins: (1) earthquake-induced landslide, (2) ground shaking (3) ground rupture (4) Liquefaction (5) volcanic eruptions (6) flooding; (7) storm surge; and (8) rain-induced landslide.

Philippines and Natural Disasters - Urgent need for Disaster Risk Reduction, not just Disaster Response - To be done under the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) adopted in January 2005 during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction.

- HFA calls for the effective implementation of DRR efforts to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015 in terms of lives and in the social, economic, and environmental assets of communities and countries, as an essential condition for sustainable development.

Disaster Risk Reduction: People and institutions involved in preparedness, mitigation, and prevention activities associated with extreme events.

Disaster Myths: • People panic during disasters, they cannot be relied upon to react rationally • The chaos that follows disasters encourage many people to engage in anti-social behavior – looting • External experts are the main agents in risk reduction and disaster response

Disaster Myths: â&#x20AC;˘ People are fatalistic about disasters and do not take action to protect themselves â&#x20AC;˘ When disaster strikes, people are helpless, passive dependent victims incapable of carrying out even basic tasks

Average Annual Impact in the Philippines • 1,025 deaths • 835 people injured • 252,915 people displaced • P8B worth of damages

Framing Disaster Risk Reduction

Preparedness

Emergency Response

Prevention & Mitigation

PostEmergency

Disaster Management Cycle

PREPAREDNESS

MITIGATION

RESPONSE

REHABILITATION

RECONSTRUCTION

Challenges, Opportunities & Gaps Logistics and Equipment

Preparedness for Saving Properties & Recovery Coherent institutional Coordination in DRR

Linking DRR to Climate Change Adaptation (management tools)

Evacuation Centers

Enhancing Community Based DRR & Early Warning Systems

Need for a More Reliable Data

Natural Disasters and Climate Change With new threats like climate change and global warming, the risks of natural disasters are intensifying and could potentially reverse the gains achieved over the years on human development and the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals.

What is the business case for ending life on earth?

New Rule If we insist on ruining the planet, we have to stop claiming we are a â&#x20AC;&#x153;superior speciesâ&#x20AC;?

CONCLUSION • Business as usual is NOT AN OPTION! • Unless action is taken now: - the standard of living will suffer far worse consequences - poverty will be exacerbated - there will be more damage to property & lives - decades of growth can be wiped out - man’s very survival is at great risk!

CONCLUSION â&#x20AC;˘ Climate change action will require concerted effort of governments & their partners (PRIVATE SECTOR. NGOs, communities, development partners) to manage and adopt to a changing & more invasive environment

SHARED RESPONSIBILITY

WE MUST PLAN TOGETHER.

Under the framework of SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 1. Reduce carbon (mitigation) 2.

Reduce risk (adaptation)

Some Mitigation Measures: • Energy Conservation • Improve energy efficiency • Shift to alternative, renewable fuel (non fossil fuel) • Control urban sprawl • Improve mass transport system • Water conservation • Water recycling • Ecological Solid Waste Mgt – composting, recycling & reuse • Stop burning of waste

Mitigation alone is not enough impacts of Climate Change a REALITY we need to adjust to and plan for

NOW!!!

Temperature - Mitigation & Adaptation Sound Practices Tokyo & Singapore

Seattle

Roof-top gardens and roadside greening to reduce impacts of urban heat island effect Urban greenery project

Albuquerque & Seattle Improved building (King County) design and insulation GREEN BUILDINGS

Greening

Green Walls (urban farming)

June 18

Greening

Green Walls (urban farming)

June 18

Aug 5

Greening

Green Roofs (urban farming)

Vents to allow warm air to go out

GK Office in Cagayan de Oro

Natural lighting

Natural lighting &ventilation

Vents to allow warm air to go out

GK Office in Cagayan de Oro

Natural lighting

Natural lighting &ventilation

Sea level rise - Adaptation Sound Practices Singapore

Increase the ground level in all reclamation projects to factor in likely increase in sea-level

Shanghai

2 phase project to regulate water flow to reduce flooding and provide platform for water quality monitoring Redesign of Thames Barrier flood control system

London

â&#x20AC;˘ Relocate high risk settlements

Precipitation - Adaptation Sound Practices London

Venice

Redesigning urban storm water drainage system considering change in frequency and intensification of rainfall 79 gates at 3 lagoon inlets in Venice (air injected into hollow gates causing them to rise & block seawater

Tokyo

Designing urban holding ponds under roads and parks to temporarily store run off water to avoid flash floods

Jakarta

To construct storm water drainage canal system (East Canal) to provide adequate drainage for eastern part of city

Vietnam

Build large & medium reservoirs upstream of big rivers Strengthen extensive dike system (5000 kms of river dikes & 3,000 kms of sea dikes)

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities Sector

Adaptation option/strategy

Water (Singapore)

Expanded rainwater harvesting Water storage & conservation Water re-use (NeWater) Desalination Water use and irrigation efficiency

.

We are blessed with more than 140 Billion Cubic Meters of rainfall, each year.

We lose nearly 80% of it

Promote the setting up of small lagoons/ ponds (water impounding) in the lowest portion of your area â&#x20AC;&#x201C;(could be also used for aquaculture and agriculture)

Allow rainwater to recharge the aquifer

FLOOD HEIGHT: 45m

Photo by J. Ong

HOUSE DESIGN & STANDARDS - Houses on stilt in Candaba (flooding) - Build to withstand stronger typhoons

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities Sector

Adaptation option/strategy

Agriculture

Develop rice varieties that can withstand being under water for long periods and can also withstand drought; Use rice farming method that requires less water

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities Sector

Adaptation option/strategy

Infrastructure & settlements

Relocation Seawalls & storm surge barriers Creation of marshlands & wetlands as buffer vs sea level rise & flooding Protection of existing natural barriers

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities Sector

Adaptation option/strategy

Energy

Strengthening overhead transmission & distribution infrastructure Underground cabling for utilities Use of renewable sources Reduced dependence on single energy source

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities Sector

Adaptation option/strategy

Public health

Comprehensive vector surveillance program (to identify source of infectious disease to be identified and eliminated before it poses a threat to the population)

• Construct rainwater collection systems (including ponds where appropriate) in our premises to capture rainwater, recharge the aquifer and as hedge against coming droughts and saline water intrusion into the aquifers as sea level rises • Support effective watershed management to protect the source of our waters • Implement the pertinent provisions of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and Ecological Solid Waste Management Act.

Protect remaining forest resources and PLANT MORE

•

Practice ecowaste mgt

•

Support reuse and recycling programs

•

Do not burn your waste including agricultural waste

Methane Emission Reduction Project QC partnered with PANGEA – an Italian firm •

•

Annual reduction in greenhouse gases: 116,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent Total 10-year reduction: 1,163,394 tonnes from 2008 to 2017

Benefits to the city: • Donation of Euro15 -32/CER sold • Free electricity for power plant • Free street lighting • Plantsahan ng Bayan

BIOGAS PLANT

CERTIFIED CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) PIPELINES

After 6 years operation, more than 10M tons dumped in the facility. Saw another OPPORTUNITY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Landfill Gas to Energy Project

Montalban bidded the project. Montalban Methane Power Corp ( a joint venture of the Zamora group with a British firm won)

Investment of $38M c/o MMPC Financial benefits to Montalban, Rizal: Royalty of 10% gross revenues Project Revenue Profile: 2/3 Power Tariff 1/3 CER Revenue Estimated emission reduction of 8.1M tons of CO2e

THE WORLD IS CHANGING.

Are we on board as leaders or mere followers?

VOTE EARTH! Be Part of the EARTH HOUR • Switch off your lights from 8:30pm to 9:30pm on the last Saturday of March • 2011 - Go Beyond the hour

Join the Celebration of Earth Day - April 22 Be part of the Movement!

2010 Theme: HAMON ng PANAHON CLIMATE CHANGE 2011 Theme: Earth Day Every Day!

We have no choice.

We have to adapt to this more invasive environment to ensure our very survival!

AVOID the UNTHINKABLE! ADAPT to the UNAVOIDABLE!

APARRI

LAOAG

SECURING LIFEBOATS & LIFELINES Understanding Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge / Saltwater Intrusion PUERTO GALERA

HAGONOY

A comprehensive study involving over 20 experts and based on over 300 peer reviewed scientific articles.

OVERVIEW El NiĂąo Southern Oscillation Events are likely to continue as a significant source of interâ&#x20AC;?annual climate variability in the Coral Triangle region.

Sea Surface Temperatures are likely to be between 1 to 4oC warmer by the end of this century.

Tropical Cyclones are likely to become more intense.There is no clear Consensus, however, as to whether the location or frequency of tropical cyclones will change in a warming world.

OVERVIEW Ocean Acidification will likely make the aragonite saturation state “marginal” for coral reefs and marine life that require calcium carbonate within the period 2020‐2050.

Rainfall and River Flow are likely to become more extreme. The inter‐annual variability

of monsoon rainfall will increase. The intensity of drought associated with a given rainfall deficit will be greater in a warmer world.

Sea Levels are likely to rise from +4 to +6 meters due to the possibility of The melting of the large land-based ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The possible timing of such events remain uncertain.

CLIMATE CHANGE… • These changes are happening faster than ever before.

• They have begun & will continue for the foreseeable future.

• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.

• There are no assurances that natural or human systems can adapt to the rate or extent of this change.

SIMULATIONS +2 METERS

+4 METERS

+6 METERS Plus a safety margin at +12 METERS

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

• High threat coastal sites may become increasingly inhospitable.

• Climate refugees may migrate away from coastal POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUSareas to inland sites.

ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DISLOCATIONS, AS WELL AS NEW ENVIRONMENTAL & POLITICAL PRESSURES.

• Movement of people and goods may be seriously curtailed.

• Basic services and infrastructure may not be prepared to handle major shifts in population.

These are flood simulations, they are not forecasts.

At best, this might provide a very rough indicator of areas that may be more vulnerable to Sea level rise, Storm surge, Saltwater intrusion or a combination thereof.

The timing and extent of climate change remains uncertain.

These have been generated merely to illustrate the level of potential risk that parts of the Philippines may be exposed to, in order to allow better preparation.

SEA LEVEL RISE SIMULATIONS THE PHILIPPINES

Laoag

+ 12m risk zone

APARRI

+ 12m risk zone

Lingayen Gulf

+ 12m risk zone

Central Luzon

+ safety margin

+ 12m risk zone

Metro - Manila

+12m risk zone

+12m risk zone

Batangas

+12m risk zone

Lucena City

+12m risk zone

Mindoro

+12m risk zone

BUSUANGA

Coron

Culion

+12m risk zone

EL NIDO

+12m risk zone

TAYTAY

+12m risk zone

SAN VICENTE

+12m risk zone

DUMARAN

+12m risk zone

ROXAS

+12m risk zone

PUERTO PRINCESA

+12m risk zone

NARRA

+12m risk zone

ESPANOLA

+12m risk zone

BATARAZA

+12m risk zone

BALABAC

Camarines Sur

+12m risk zone

Boracay

+12m risk zone

Roxas City

+12m risk zone

+ safety margin

Iloilo City

+ safety margin

+12m risk zone

Negros Occidental

+12m risk zone

Cebu City / Mactan

+ safety margin

+12m risk zone

Leyte

+12m risk zone

Dumaguete

+ 12m risk zone

Bais

+ 12m risk zone

Surigao

+12m risk zone

Butuan

+12m risk zone

Bugo

+12m risk zone

Cagayan de Oro

+12m risk zone

Iligan

+12m risk zone

Panguil Bay

+12m risk zone

Carmen

+12m safety margin

Panabo

+12m safety margin

Davao

+12m safety margin

Digos

+12m safety margin

General Santos City

+12m risk zone

Cotabato

+ 12m risk zone

2

Malabang

+ 12m risk zone

3

Pagadian

+ 12m risk zone

Ipil

4

+ 12m risk zone

Zamboanga

Zamboanga

+ 12m risk zone

5

Basilan

Jolo

Bongao

Tawi Tawi

Sitangkai / Sibutu

WATER FOOD HEALTH LAND / HOME LIVELIHOOD

THE NAUTICAL HIGHWAY All major seaports will require some re-engineering.

NEW AVIATION BACKBONE? Lower Risk to Sea Levels / Storm Surge Located beyond +6 Meter flood levels

Luzon Tuguegarao City Cauayan, Isabela Baguio City Angeles City Lipa City Naga City Legaspi City

( R2 ) ( R2 ) ( CAR ) ( R3 ) ( R4 ) ( R5 ) ( R5 )

Visayas Santa Barbara, Iloilo Silay City

( R6 ) ( R6 )

Mindanao Cagayan de Oro City Davao City General Santos City Jolo City

( R10 ) ( R11 ) ( R12 ) ( ARMM )

Adaptive Management

ADDITIONAL “LIFELINE” ELEMENTS • • • • • • •

Social / Commercial / Political Institutions Telecommunications Energy Banking & Finance Insurance & Risk Coverage Health Systems Disaster Preparation & Response

CLIMATE ADAPTATION We can prepare for this.

Act now. Locally.