Post-Sentence Re-Arrest 10

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CJA

Research Brief

NEW YORK CITY CRIMINAL JUSTICE AGENCY, Inc.

No. 24

September 2010

A series of reports summarizing current research from CJA Executive Director, Jerome E. McElroy Director, Research Dept., Richard R. Peterson, Ph.D. Research Brief Editor & Deputy Director, Research, Mary T. Phillips, Ph.D. Graphics & Production, Raymond P. Caligiure Administrative Associate, Annie Su

CJA is a not-for-profit corporation that provides a variety of criminal justice services under a contract with the City of New York. CJA staff interview defendants arrested in New York City, make recommendations for pretrial release, and notify released defendants of upcoming court dates. Within the Agency, the Research Department conducts studies covering a broad array of criminal justice policy concerns. The Research Brief series summarizes the results of some of these studies. New York City Criminal Justice Agency, Inc. 52 Duane Street New York, NY 10007 PHONE: 646 213-2500 FAX: 646 213-2650 WEB: www.nycja.org © 2010 NYC Criminal Justice Agency, Inc.

PREDICTING POST-SENTENCING RE-ARREST By Qudsia Siddiqi, Ph.D. A defendant’s likelihood of The research summarized here re-arrest after release from a addressed the problem statisUsing jail or prison term is of intically by conducting sepalikelihood terest to Alternative-torate analyses for four of re-arrest Incarceration programs different groups of ofto target cases (ATIs) in targeting fenders, based on cases for interventhe length and for intervention: tion in court. type of senProblems and possibilities Defendants tence each rewith a low risk of re-arrest have the ceived. This approach provided greatest chance of success in pro- separate predictive estimates for grams that replace incarceration defendants facing a wide range with treatment or other activity, of sentences. without posing a threat to the com- The research identified case munity. and defendant characteristics as The difficulty for ATI programs sociated with a lower-than-averis that a potential client’s risk of age risk of re-arrest within each re-arrest is impossible to determine group. precisely, and may vary depending Following a summary of the on the nature of the case as well findings, some policy implicaas the defendant’s criminal history tions for ATI targeting are disand demographic characteristics. cussed. This Research Brief is adapted from Post-Sentencing Re-Arrest Among New York City Released Offenders: An Analysis Of The Fourth Quarter Of 2003 Dataset (2008, Revised 2010) by Qudsia Siddiqi, Ph.D., Project Director The full report is available on CJA’s web site: www.nycja.org/research/research.htm Research Assistance: Elyse J. Revere, Steve Mardenfeld Systems Programming: Barbara Geller Diaz, Aïda Tejaratchi Address comments to the author at qudsia_siddiqi@yahoo.com Please cite as follows, adapted to your citation style: Siddiqi, Qudsia. 2010. “Predicting Post-Sentencing Re-Arrest.” Research Brief series, no. 24. New York: New York City Criminal Justice Agency, Inc.


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