India Debates May by Cross Section Interactive Private Limited

THE THIRD FRONT: A POSSIBILITY OR JUST A MIRAGE SACHIN@40

a cross section publication

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THE

OPEN

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Volume 1 | Issue 6 | 1-15 May, 2013 | Rs. 20

FORUM

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DIALOGUE

ONE-ON-ONE WITH ARVIND KEJRIWAL P-12

WHERE THE BUCKS STOPS? TACKLING LAW & ORDER P-10

OUR TAKE

Its a win-win proposition for Jet and Etihad. But what impact will this deal have on Indian aviation as a whole, its gateway airports and most of all, on Air India, to which the government stands committed to infuse `30,000 crores.

What the Jet-Etihad deal means for Indian aviation

NO HUB ALL SPOKES POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

LIFE AROUND US

ETHICS IN ADVERTISING: GOING OVERBOARD TO INNOVATE

BUYING GOLD: IS IT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST?

inside

THE KARNATAKA ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

DEFENCE PROCUREMENT GETS A NEW POLICY DIRECTION

The BIG Picture

Ready to meet any challenge: Defence Minister AK Antony and Minister of State for Defence Jitendra Singh shaking hands with services chiefs of armed forces during the Annual Unified Commanders Conference.

india

DEBATES

THE OPEN FORUM FOR DIALOGUE

editor:

NAVIN S BERRY navin@crosssectionmedia.com contributing editor

RITWIK SINHA ritwik@crosssectionmedia.com business

SAURABH SHUKLA saurabh@crosssectionmedia.com INDIA DEBATES is printed, published and owned by Navin S Berry and printed at Anupam Art Printers. B-52, Naraina Industrial Area, Phase II, New Delhi - 110 028. It is published from IIIrd Floor, Rajendra Bhawan, 210, Deen Dayal Upadhyay Marg, New Delhi – 110 002. Editor: Navin S Berry Tel: 011-43784444, 41001622. Fax: 011-41001627

Total pages 40

PARLIAMENT MUST FUNCTION AT ALL COST, DEBATE IS THE ESSENCE OF DEMOCRACY

recent TV show highlighted how there was need for a unified response to any external threats to the country. It is often that the country needs to debate. But then, though Parliament was in session, no business was being conducted as there was a stand-off between the ruling and the main opposition parties. The question that was asked in this situation was - why does the government not call for an all party meeting? Pat came the answer – how could the government call for such a meeting when Parliament was meant to be in session? Mani Shankar Aiyer, speaking for the Congress, shared that he had been looking into his records, and had come across a situation in 1962, when a 36 year old young man had asked the then PM, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru to convene a special session of the Upper House. The suggestion was accepted and the Upper House indeed did meet to discuss the Chinese invasion at that time. That young man was none other than Atal Bihari Vajpayee! The BJP spokesperson countered this reference by saying that those were another kind of times, when there were no ` 5,000 crore scams or false affidavits being filed by government agencies. What emerged clearly was that domestic upheavals were indeed taking a toll of national issues, especially those that were clearly demanding a unified response, which would also be readily available no doubt except that the two main parties were not engaging with each other positively on any front. Therefore, sadly, we were looking like a house divided, which is really not the case. One can confidently assert that when it comes to national honour and security, none would have any reservations – we are united and always will be! So, therefore, we need a living mechanism that rises above day to day issues. One that respects differences of opinion on every issue, assumes positions and yet is able to immediately spring into togetherness on issues concerning national interest which demand that we as a nation stand united, firm and equal to whatever task is on hand. Which also raises another question: without going into the merits of the present stand-off where opposition parties have adopted this frequent policy of not allowing Parliament to work, what is important is the need to debate if there are any better and more effective ways to show protest, without holding the country to ransom? Such costly protests must stop somewhere. But how? Assuming that we have to make a break somewhere, and that many wrongs in our society must be put an end to somewhere and somehow, let us look at forms of protest. On Delhi’s famed Parliament Street, the police has cordoned off areas, and demarcated areas and movement corridors for all protesting parties. There are also permissions required from the local authorities – the entire bandobast is made by the administration, allowing a protest march to be held. Similarly, we need a code of conduct, which could begin with the next Parliament – that every MP and that every party swears allegiance to making Parliament work – that nobody, whatever the circumstances, can stop the legitimate proceedings of either House. And that every party agrees to this code, now, before getting any closer to the elections. Such a positive step towards nation building will be widely welcomed by every right thinking citizen of the country.

NAVIN S BERRY – Editor india debates 1-15 May 2013

OUR TAKE

“”

QUOTES WORTH A DEBATE PUSHPA KAMAL DAHAL PRACHANDA

Former PM, Nepal asking for tripartite economic co-operation between India, China and Nepal

In the changed globalised context and in view of growing economic relations between India and China, trilateral cooperation is possible and would not be a distant dream.

FDI in insurance is an important bill and to the extent possible early passage of the bill would help the country substantially.”

RAGHURAM RAJAN Chief Economic Adviser

You come to Bangalore and see how Indian players are appreciated and the players who play for our country, how they are cheered everywhere in India. I don’t know what’s wrong with the people at this venue.

Basically, we are a sex starved, high on morality society. If you men see an item number and get excited, it is the girl’s problem?

VIRAT KOHLI

EKTA KAPOOR

RCB skipper who was recently booed by the crowd in a match in Mumbai

Filmmaker as quoted in a national daily

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT

SAVE SARABJIT PLEA WITH PAKISTAN. (R-L): Sarabjit Singh’s sister Dalbir Kaur, wife Sukhpreet Kaur and daughters Poonam and Swapandeep Kaur crossing the Attari/Wahga international border to meet Sarabjit Singh at Jinnah hospital.

PROTEST ON THE STREET: Activists burn an effigy of Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari protesting against the poor condition of Indian prisoner Sarabjit Singh and Pakistan government’s reluctance to provide better treatment.

DRAGON DOES IT AGAIN, TIME TO REPLY? Activists shout slogans as they hold anti-Chinese placards during a protest after an alleged incursion of Chinese troops into part of the Indian controlled remote Himalayan region.

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE NEIGHBOURS

DILEMMA IN THE BACKYARD

een from the standpoint of public mindscape, this could well be the case of double whammy. As if the problems within were not enough as manifested in the often crumbling of the law and order machinery in a place like Delhi which arguably should be the safest place owing to its national capital status, last fortnight saw challenges emerging from across the border. First, we heard that an Indian prisoner subjected to death penalty in Pakistan had been badly bruised inside the jail and is fighting the battle for his life. And then there was news of a fast developing Chinese incursion in the Himalayan region. In both the instances, our response has been on predictable lines. There have been street protests in certain pockets, the opposition has called the government meek and the government seems to have done little of consequence to negate the assumption that its response is far from being consistent. Street protests, no doubt, do exhibit the uncanny knack of crossing the line of sanity when it comes to solution offering. And more often than not the panacea suggested by them is littered with self-destructive prescription. Unflinching assertion and not accommodation is touted from the top of the roof which does not work in maintaining sustainable equations with our neighbours. But both the Chinese incursion and the Sarabjit case have forced the thinking heads to ask â&#x20AC;&#x201C; are we losing weight in our region? Not to mention recent events in the Maldives, and even Sri Lanka of late. Have our neighbours made it a point to put us in a spot at their will; do they believe we have infinite patience? Many suggestions appeared to ignore that Pakistan is another country where Indian writ will not run. And Sarabjit is a convict as per the Pakistani perception and law. But even then, it did appear that we were just merely watching and did not have enough to say, or do! Provisioning expeditious visa clearance for his relatives by the Pakistani government was perhaps the only soft sop, but one that hardly sends the signal that the government is acting upon those issues that are emotive for its people. From the standpoint of public perception, China flexing its muscles every now and then is threatening to become a regular embarrassment for India. We must be having a plan, but this needs to be shared more positively with the people, we need to know what our government is doing. Surely, we do not lack a definitive approach in terms of talking straight with the country which has developed a deftness of sort in confusing India, among its many other neighbours, to name Vietnam and Japan, among others. On one hand, it continues to send the signal of carrying the historical hostility and on the other, the bilateral trade between the two countries is growing by leaps and bounds, mostly to its benefit. But as history testifies, living with any kind of existential dilemma is not something which a country should afford for too long and more than anything else it has to ensure that its sensitivities are not compromised. We should not lose the plot somewhere on this front. BY NAVIN BERRY & RITWIK SINHA

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

THE

THIRD FRONT PUZZLE

MULAYAM SINGH YADAV

in a recent public meeting Coalition government is the need of the country... It is high time that parties, having the common goal to achieve social change, come together.

CHANDRABABU NAIDU

President, TDP

How third front or fourth fronts will emerge is anyone’s guess. There are many options. Mulayam Singh Yadav with TMC chief Mamata Banerjee – Mulayam is at the fulcrum of the Third Front theory this time. india debates 1-15 May 2013

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

PRAKASH KARAT

CPM general secretary It is not an easy task because the regional parties like AIADMK, SP, BJD, JDU are also opportunists and will either side with Congress or BJP.

SHARAD PAWAR

NCP Chief

There is no possibility of a Third Front as talked about by Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh.

MAYAWATI

NAVEEN PATNAIK

Chief Minister, Orissa It is still early to discuss ... there is a lot of time to talk about it (Third Front).

BSP Supermo There is no question of third or fourth front, as all will depend on the performance of the parties and the election results.

Congress and the BJP are exuding confidence of leading the next ruling formation. But some regional satraps have begun talking about a third front – a not so successful experience in the past. Nonetheless, its not an unique phenomenon in Indian polity. So given the present equation, what are the possibilities of a third front combination coming out trump? India Debates examines the pertinent strands of the issue... BY AROON SHARMA

Significance of the Third Front A Third Front is visualised as an umbrella outfit of regional parties – fit enough to have the numbers, and hold the reins at the Centre – mainly of those who have a double digit presence in Lok Sabha as of today, and also those in the House whose headcount is not that impressive numerically but matters significantly as add-ons. In recent times, except for the successive ‘single party’ regimes of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi in the 80s, the country has been through a spate of coalitions, some of which lasted 11 months, (of Vishwanath Pratap Singh and H.D. Deve Gowda); some a bare four months (of Chandrashekhar and Inder Kumar Gujral); some less than that (of Bharatiya Lok Dalled Charan Singh). In between, there have been mentionable exceptions, of coalitions nevertheless, lasting their full term: of the Indian National Congress-led P.V. Narasimha Rao; of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and of the Congress-led Man Mohan Singh since 2004, encore 2009 (nearing its full term). Lest one forgets, the country’s maiden coalition was of the Janata Party-led Morarji Desai in 1977 which petered out after 18 months. As it is, the clamour of the regional outfits has been to cast off the ideological 1-15 May 2013 india debates

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE commandeering by whosoever is the ringleader, be it the Indian National Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party, or in the rechristened avatar of Janata Party (of 1977-78) and the Janata Dal (of 1990-91), lesser regimes included. Once free, it’s an advantage, more savoured in wishful thinking, than reining in the chariot with each colt stalling or running at whim.

Past Experience After the initial euphoria of a ministerial berth(s) at the Centre wears off, pulls and pressures rear their ugly head mainly on two counts: one, the conflict of ideology between the coalition partner and its lead party; two, the socio-economic concessions which the partner had manifesto-promised to its vote bank in the run up but finds it hard now to push them through. Keeping aside two constants – the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (post 1980, after splits and

sub splits), regional parties have been, both on the swing and the merry go around. The Left twice turned their back on the Indian National Congress – offering support from ‘outside’ to the Janata Party (1977) and Janata Dal (1990). The CPI once even joined a coalition at the Centre with Indrajit Gupta holding charge as the Union Home Minister. The honeymoon ended there. After it, the Left changed the groom and lined up behind the Indian National Congress (2004). This marriage of convenience too broke up and since 2009, it has certainly not been with the Bharatiya Janata Party but with the Opposition in general in the House, and certainly opposed to the Indian National Congress. From down South, both the AIADMK and the DMK have played musical chairs with each other in the state and sung the chorus of coalition both with BJP and Congress led coalitions at the Centre. In late 80s, Dr J. Jayalalitha was in the charmed circle of Rajiv Gandhi. Later,

she was woo-ed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA in late 90s. As General Elections near, her nod is more pronounced for a Third Front than the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Indian National Congress seemingly lost her after letting the DMK board its UPA bandwagon twice – in 2004 and 2009. Today, when it comes to the South, the Congress is all at sea. Both AIADMK and DMK are lost. Up North, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party took off as partners for a while to dislodge the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party from the hub of Hindi heartland – Uttar Pradesh; later fell out, followed by Mayawati’s support to BJP at the Centre and state ( Kalyan Singh ). It was a crafty move to wean away the electorate from the Indian National Congress. It did succeed. Later Mayawati was to bring down Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government in the late 90s. Strangely, Kalyan Singh gave up the Bharatiya Janata Party, set

LALU PRASAD YADAV

RAVI SHANKAR PRASAD

PERSPECTIVES

AKHILESH YADAV

Chief Minister, UP They – Congress and BJP - have not fulfilled their promises. Their policies are not pro-poor. Congress and BJP and their allies have failed on many fronts. Opportunity is there for a third force. There should be a third force.

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RJD Chief

Third Front is zero... it will never be formed. There are over a dozen leaders who all want to be prime ministers. The third front will not happen, it will never happen.

BJP Leader

Mulayam Singh is talking about a third front, but it is history. It has no relevance for the present nor any promise for the future.

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE up his Apna Dal, supported the Samajwadi Party, and is now back to the Bharatiya Janata Party. When it comes to ambitions, both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati eye the Centre as their next highpoint on a nonCongress;non-BJP springboard.

Will regional satraps come together this time? There have been faint indicative ‘conditional’ hints by at least three former NDA partners – Naveen Patnaik (Biju Janata Dal ), J.Jayalalitha (AIADMK), Chandra Babu Naidu (Telugu Desam). Mamata Bannerjee (Trinamul Congress) remains an enigma. The only trouble shooter of the Indian National Congress who could have unwrapped the mystery and manage the mercurial lady, Pranab Mukherjee is now on a non-political executive stint. Even the Bharatiya Janata Party knows not how to get her back, and what terms.

ALL PRINCIPAL PLAYERS – TMC, JD(U), BJD, SP, BSP, AAIDMK, DMK, LEFT WOULD NOT THROW UP MORE THAN 20 TO 25 MPS IN THE NEXT ROUND WITH TDP, TRS BETWEEN 5 TO 10. PUT TOGETHER THE STRENGTH ADDS UP TO BETWEEN 180-200 THAT IS IF (A BIG IF, THIS) ALL JOIN HANDS. THAT IS STILL 70 TO 80 SHORT OF A SIMPLE MAJORITY (277) BUT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A CAMPFIRE TO MESMERIZE

What could be the possible floor number? All principal players – TMC, JD(U), BJD, SP, BSP, AAIDMK, DMK, LEFT would not throw up more than 20 to 25 MPs in the next round with TDP, TRS between 5 to 10. Put together the strength adds up to between 180-200 that is if (a big if, this) all join hands. That is still 70 to 80 short of a simple majority (277) but good enough to be a campfire to mesmerize, both the main contenders for 7, Race Course Road – the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, into a foot tap. And yet there’s a remote possibility of a Third Front being formally announced though conclaves of these parties could be held and a loose tie-up mooted.

Can it provide a stable regime now?

MANISH TEWARI

I&B Minister

If you look at the history of the past 20 years, the history of coalition politics in India, the reality is that a Third Front or a Fourth Front or a Fifth Front has been the most enduring mirage of Indian politics.

The Third Front has no leader of a national stature in a multi-lingual, multicultural ‘Electoral India 2013’. Thus, it can not be stable. The UPA went through its first term ( despite Indian National Congress strength being a bare 138 MPs ) without a noticeable taint. Its second term (with INC strength upped to 206 MPs, and without the Left ) has been uneasy. For over a year now, it has struggled to get the minimum numbers on important legislations to pass muster in Parliament. Scams have eroded UPA-II’s credibility. It hasn’t made a mark in by–elections in the past two years. If it’s set to just about make it in Karnataka, it is fast losing ground in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

It has no well drawn up; well taken up basics or a blueprint for Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Bihar. West Bengal would always be a TMC vs CPM battlefield. Even its alliance with NC in J & K has developed strains.

Has NCP already opted out? Sharad Pawar is a far more shrewd politician than all the brains in the Indian National Congress put together. He is perhaps the only UPA politician with deep links in NDA (read L.K. Advani). He has maintained a discreet silence on Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial ambitions. Could be, he wants Maharashtra delivered to his family in return of NCP support to Congress at the Centre. But if he’s not contesting for Lok Sabha anymore, will Praful Patel have enough clout at the Centre or will the command go to Sharad Pawar’s Supriya Sule. The Bharatiya Janata Party would eye it with expectations.

How can the scene unfold in the near run? Noise here or there, now and then, would be heard. A collective din has to wait till General Elections (mid term or otherwise) are announced. The reason is simple: only at the national level does the Third Front makes any sense. States are well off under regional satraps. Except the BJP and the Congress, no party has a national footprint. It’s ironical that the vastness of the country does not throw up vast options. But this limited, either this or that party dual option is true of the United States and the United Kingdom, too, even in the European democracies. For years on, the Indian National Congress was the only choice. That was a no-contest bane. That it took nearly 50 years for the Bharatiya Janata Party to emerge, but it did, as an alternative is to be seen as a boon of an option. That the regional parties have to piggy back either of the two is not a curse. It mirrors the dynamics of diversity of 29 states where language and customs change as the state boundaries change. 1-15 May 2013 india debates

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

LAW & ORDER

WHERE DOES THE BUCK STOP? T???????

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE It almost seems to be the case of sudden proliferation of psychopaths amidst us. But every time demanding the scalp of custodians of law and order machinery may well amount to asking for wrong medicine. BY NAVIN BERRY

t is time to ask questions of ourselves. Are we just sick, are we a society of depraved minds? There seems to be nothing more, and nothing less to the issue of rape. To what extent therefore is rape really a law and order issue? There are people who firmly believe the causes are societal rather than of policing. And that instead of asking for the resignations of the top cops, we should be reviewing where have we arrived as a society and why. This is not necessarily a researched view but at best a well-intentioned one. What rape is all about, as most of us understand it: These at worst are gender issues stemming from how the macho part of the male mind sends signals for us to behave like the feudal lords of yesteryear whose prerogative it was to exercise their control over the female body, and through the body over the mind and thus attain ultimate ownership because a woman was not meant to say NO. The female was meant to always obey, and to give whatever is demanded. And her body was meant solely to serve. For the police to be able to stop a rape in the neighbourhood or to prevent family crime will require a cop to be stationed in every home, on every street corner to secure safety – because such crimes can happen anywhere. More often than not, they happen when the protagonist believes he will not be found out. Frightened by threats, the victim remains silent. And thereby perpetuates her vulnerability for a long period of time till finally one day the she shares the trauma and comes out with horrifying memories of sufferings borne long back. The police cannot be stationed on every bus either. The situation in them is really an extension of the neighbourhood situation. The public bus becomes the adda, the secluded room. The rapes are acts of trickery, and of the exploitation of a sudden situation. Prevention here demands higher levels of technology in the system, higher levels of education among

the public, as well as the upholders of authority including drivers and other stake holders. It also demands higher awareness levels about what is most desirable in a society right down to the fact that even talking loosely about a woman is not necessarily trendy. We need role models, whom the young and old alike can look up to and emulate! These must be national icons that don’t have feet of clay. So far, in many cases our idols have proved themselves to be the wrong examples for the millions, with drugs and boxing being the most recent incident. With rampant corruption having made it difficult to find anyone to look up to in public life, the absence of worthy role models is hampering growth in our social and moral values. Do we have a President Obama in our midst? The fact is that expectations in our society have outpaced the capacity for delivery in our systems. Why this has been allowed to happen needs to be openly debated and understood and collective solutions need to be found. It will not help to demand the resignations of the home minister or the police commissioner. When the man on the street makes such demands, it is somewhat understandable – his demand is an expression of his frustration. But when a person in power demands a suspension or removal, we must dismiss it as political vendetta. Because where would it end, where should the buck stop? If you follow the logic of moral responsibility, the buck should stop right at the very top, in not only in the police, the government, the political theatre, but in all walks of our society. We are in the midst of a major churning in our society. Aspirations are shooting through the roof, the gap between the haves and have-nots increasing rapidly, and frustration is growing, to put it mildly. Peer pressure, compounded by rising prices, rising consumerism – where every item is instalment driven – abetted by an urge for masti and entertainment, not to mention the daily dose of stories about people going from rags to riches overnight and the constant, never ending

talk of corruption – are making people feel rudderless, more vulnerable. Sex and crime, in whatever proportion you consider the two fatal attractions, is making every other person vulnerable! W hen Home Minister Shinde says that rape is happening everywhere, he is right, but does that make our position any more acceptable? Solutions are that much more necessary. And when the Police Commissioner says he would resign a thousand times, if it helps, we realise his helplessness – it is not his domain to eradicate – he can only be responsible to bring the guilty to book, ASAP. The bigger question, really, is how so many rape issues are coming out every other day. Has the incidence of rape actually risen or is it getting reported more often than before? This would be a moot question. It is sadly becoming commonplace to keep scanning the newspapers – and seeing pages after pages filled with reports. Earlier there were perhaps as many cases – but they were not getting reported because of the fear factor, or getting hushed by interested parties. Or getting bought out, placated, whatever. Now this is getting reported – even the reported offer to buy out for Rs. 2000 is being probed – at whose instance? The positive role of the media is a sure winner here. No incident is too small as everything is getting reported and perhaps many are getting incorrectly bracketed together under the one common heading of rape. But this is better than the incident not getting reported at all. The media has raised awareness to new levels, made people generally more alive to the problem. Being forewarned is half the problem solved. People are getting more apprehensive of dark corners, sleazy situations, and more alert of the neighbourly bhaiya (and uncle), the demon in waiting! The answers and the solutions do not finish here, they only begin. We need more effort, in both time and money, in hand-holding the police force across the country and making them more sensitive to a modern society’s needs. 1-15 May 2013 india debates

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

ARVIND KEJRIWAL “ I MISS ANNA HAZARE” Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party seems to have already got into an election mode by upping the ante on Bijli, Paani issue in Delhi. Kejriwal’s recent fast campaign is a case in the point even as his detractors called it a flop-show. But in a no-holds -barred conversation with India Debates, Kejriwal maintained that the journey of his political outfit has commenced on an encouraging note. BY RITWIK SINHA

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

Q The last time I called I was told you have been advised not to speak for a week. That was after you had ended your fast. How is your health now? As you can see, my health is fine.

Our endeavour was to reach out to the poorest of the poor in Delhi. And that is why the location of the fast was significant. We strongly believe that the politics of this country has to start from those poor people. These people are remembered once in five years and then they are forgotten. After that, all the policies are made for the rich people, not even the middle class. We managed some considerable success as we reached out to over 10 lakh families which is huge.

his right mind would refuse to sign, since this is a matter affecting all of us. But while all this was going on, some media reports suggested that there hasn’t been any impact on the collection of private discoms. And that was cited as a sign of the failure of the fast. If you read that letter or memorandum, it is addressed to Shiela Dixit. And it says I will not pay my electricity bill or water bill if you don’t reduce the price. So when you say that no one will refuse to sign up for the kind of cause we have taken up, it simply means that we have taken up the right cause. And this is something which nobody else has done. So, both the cause we have taken up and the strategy we have adopted were right. Secondly, you are quoting discoms as saying that their revenues have not gone down. The discoms first have to tell us how much their figures were earlier and how much it is now. They are not giving figures. They are almost making political statements. They also have to say how many people in Delhi have not paid their bills. Most of these people would be small payers. The big payers would be industry, and commercial establishments and we are not talking about them. We are talking about people living in jhuggi-basti. We are talking about the lower middle class. In this particular campaign, even the middle class was not that actively focused on because even though they are pinched by the prices, they may not like to participate in this kind of disobedience drive. This was particularly targeted towards the poor and the lower middle classes. Now the amounts they have to pay are so little that their non-payment may not substantially reduce the revenues of discoms. So if you ask these companies to furnish the details on the volume of consumers who have not paid their dues by the due date, I think that would be huge. Furthermore, I have now been told that it is only now that the discoms’ revenues are coming down. So at the time of the fast, people were signing the papers and getting ready not to pay their next bill. It takes time for that impact to get translated into results.

Q You got the signatures of over a million people on the memorandum against high electricity bills. Well, no commoner in

Q Now that you have taken the plunge in politics with Delhi being the fulcrum of your political debut, what kind of strategy would

Q How much weight have you lost? About nine kgs. Q And how much have you gained in terms of credibility? Your critics say the fast was a flop show, that it did not evoke the response you expected. I am posing a counter question. According to you, what should have happened to call it a success? Q Well in terms of perception, there wasn’t the kind of buzz in the media during the initial spell of your fast this time. The media is assessing the success and failure of the fast on the basis of the number of people or the crowds which gathered at the spot of the ansan. The crowds were not important in our scheme of things. If the crowd had been important, we would not have sat in a remote corner of Delhi which is difficult for people to find and which is so badly connected. If crowds were important, we would have gone to Ramlila Maidan or Jantar Mantar. There were two or three things which were important and which we were trying to do. Firstly, to reach out to that bunch of people who are normally not approached by political parties and political leaders, not even before elections. There are some parts of Delhi which are in such a bad shape, that it is humanly impossible for people to survive there. Our volunteers had told us it’s difficult to even stand in these areas for five minutes. The places stink because of the open drainage. So we reached out to those people. If crowds were important, then all our volunteers would have come and sat there. Our idea was to reach out to everyone there and have a direct discussion to understand their issues. That is what happened. And we had put big boards at the ansan site, saying please don’t stay here. If you are actually supporting this fast, then register yourself as volunteer there, take up your form and then go to a jhuggibasti assigned by us and meet people.

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POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

you be working on in an overall sense? I think, Delhi will be that much-needed chingari. If our movement is successful in Delhi, it will show the way to the entire country. And our idea is simple: we just need to stand for people’s causes. There are at least two attributes which are now very firmly etched in the public mind about us – we are honest and we are driven by our courage of conviction. They know that we are working for the country. The only thing they need now is to be assured that we can come out trumps in political battles too. Voters normally desist from backing losing candidates. india debates 1-15 May 2013

And I think gradually we are reaching the point when we will win their trust on this front too. Delhi is extremely important and we are looking at it as the stepping stone to going further. Q People do broadly know about your ideas of political or administrative governance. I would like to get a sense of your idea of economic governance, for instance what is that one crucial thing you would like to initiate in Delhi? People do ask us what is our economic policy. This is too huge a term and has several constituents – industrial policy,

agricultural policy, foreign and domestic trade, concerns of farmers and traders, etc. It’s very difficult to define it in one simple sentence. The Congress and the BJP, the two principal contenders, ironically have similar economic policies. Congress’ policy can be defined in one simple sentence – indulgeº in as much loot as possible. The BJP too does not have a different approach. They do not have any sound policy for the constituents I mentioned. I have no problem in getting a nice economic policy framework prepared by some economist friends which could be presented as the Aam Aadmi Party’s agenda. Right now we are connecting with people in Delhi across class barriers and trying to understand their economic problems. Recently, I had a meeting with a body of traders and they told us that Delhi once used to be the wholesale distribution hub for the entire country. But thanks to the Congress and BJP governments here, the city no longer enjoys the status of being a wholesale distribution fulcrum. There have been several products where a higher percentage of VAT was imposed vis-à-vis other states and those products have therefore shifted to those states. In our view, if there is any law or policy which is acting as a hurdle for the growth of industry, services, agriculture or trade, they should be removed. These sectors not only take care of our regular economic requirements but they also create jobs. I know from my own administrative experience that these hindrances are basically there to maintain status quo on corruption. You can introduce one more form for sales tax and if someone doesn’t file that, you can impose a penalty or ask him to pay a bribe to stay away from penalty obligations. That is how the system works. Q So how do you intend to tackle this? The point is: if Ambani wants to set up a company, he may not need a license. The rich business class can buy any kind of license in this country. But if a common man wants to set up a streetside shop, there are troubles aplenty. This is what crony capitalism is all about and this needs to be checked in this country. I must clarify that we are not against corporate bodies. We in fact believe that the government has no business to be in business. We are in no way asking for the nationalisation of everything. We want the government to

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

play the role of a referee. But this referee can’t afford to be dishonest or it will have grave consequences. Unfortunately, this is the precise problem right now. This has to be fixed and at the same time, we need to have economic laws or policies which can offer more to people who have less in life. Q Lately, your volunteers have also pitched in to highlight law and order lapses. Is it part of your strategy to pinpoint governance failure at several levels? What is the role of the government? The role of the government is to provide justice, security, maintain law and order, provide for such basic amenities as water, education, health, etc. Is the government taking care of any of these? Your policing system is mired in corruption. And these are the core issues for the Aam Aadmi Party. The eradication of corruption, and putting in place an honest and responsive system are the primary priorities. If corruption is taken care of then all wings of governance can work efficiently. Q Between inflation and corruption, which one do you think is the bigger issue for a common man? In my view, they are related with each other. You have inflation because of corruption. Why do you think electricity is expensive today? Shiela Dixit is protecting the interests of Anil Ambani. The root of the inflation of anything you talk about lies in our corrupt practices. Prices will not rise in this country if corruption is not there. Q How would you explain your relationship with the media? At one point in time, their support to your movement was almost unconditional. But now it seems to be more cautious in nature. The media has become cautious. I have many reporter friends who tell me that there is pressure on them from the top hierarchy to not talk too much about us. Media needs to seriously consider what is its dharma. We are following ours with the conviction that we are on the right path. I am not saying that everybody in media has succumbed to pressures. There are exceptions. At the reporter level, there are people who are sympathetic to our campaign. It’s people at the editor’s level who are citing compulsions. And those

Ever since I have exposed the Swiss bank accounts of Mukesh Ambani, the media has become cautious. I have many reporter friends who tell me that there is pressure on them from the top hierarchy to not talk too much about us. Media needs to seriously consider what is its dharma. We are following ours with the conviction that we are on the right path.

who run these media houses, they are probably finding it difficult to stand up to the might of corporate houses here. Q Tell me, in realistic terms, how hopeful are you of making a significant mark in next assembly elections in Delhi? We are leaving no stone unturned to ensure that we make a mark. But organisational set-up is a huge challenge for us. One can see strong undercurrents in our favour. But yes, I do not claim any expertise in the poll management which happens in the last 24 hours. I don’t know how successful we would be on that front. Both the Congress and BJP have a long history – of 100 and 40 years respectively. But we also have an opportunity in the sense that we are getting direct support from the people. They are funding us; there are young people who are leaving their jobs to join our campaign. That is our strength. Q Is there any cut-off number which will satisfy you? We want to be in a majority. That is what we are eyeing.

Q When you had started your movement, it was the middle class which had emerged as your primary constituency. Now that seems to be somewhat diluted. No, they are still there. In the recent bijli, pani campaign we had primarily targeted the lower classes. So some people in the media felt we are not talking about the middle class which is not the case. For the middle class, corruption is a very big issue and that also is our core agenda. But when you go to a jhuggi/basti, residents there are least bothered about corruption involving bigwigs. For them what holds importance are the issues related to their day to day existence – issues related with pani and bijli. Q Can you rely on middle class voters? Conventionally they are believed to be the most cynical. It’s for them to decide. Our job is to spread awareness and tell them we still have hope. We are willing to put everything at stake. Q Is Arvind Kejriwal satisfied with the way this movement has unfolded? I am enjoying everything we are doing. Enjoying, but not satisfied? No, I am satisfied. I know I only have control over my actions. Q You had emerged on the horizon as a beacon of hope against corruption. But then the split between Anna Hazare and you happened with you deciding to get into the cesspool of poll politics. It has left many people who were your staunch and unconditional supporters in the initial phase confused. I have no hesitation in admitting that had we still been together, our strength would have been manifold times more formidable. This split has weakened us; there is no doubt about that. But what can be done? Anna was completely convinced that we should not have any truck with politics. I felt that until and unless we clean the system from the inside, nothing will move. Q Do you miss Anna Hazare? I really do miss him a lot. 1-15 May 2013 india debates

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

STATES: KARNATAKA

CASTE TO CORRUPTION, THE BUT A CLEAR WINNER IS A 360-degree view of the key assembly election that may provide pointers on what can be expected in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. BY G GANAPATHY SUBRAMANIAM

ith general election just months away, the assembly election in Karnataka is seen as a trailer of sorts with the two major national parties – Congress and the BJP – pitted against each other while smaller players like the Janata Dal—Secular, led by the Gowda family; and the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) of Bookanakere Siddalingappa

Yeddyurappa providing enough scope for post-election alliances. Political pundits say that there is an interesting similarity since that Karnataka may not elect a clear winner, akin to the view that no single party may get majority in the 2014 general election. What are the important factors influencing outcome of the Karnataka election? Why is it being so bitterly fought on negative aspects like anti-incumbency,

Senior Congress leader and former CM, SM Krishna, in election mode.

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corruption, betrayal, caste politics and lack of development-oriented governance? It is high drama as 4.36 crore voters exercise their franchaise and 2,948 candidates slug it out. Read on…. CASTE IN SILICON VALLEY To cut the long debate short, let us analyse the most dominant issues, starting with caste equations first. It is an irony that caste affiliations dominate electoral politics of Karnataka, cutting across party lines. The BJP and the KJP are banking on the support of Lingayats who account for nearly one-fourth of Karnataka’s population. BJP has given tickets to 60 Lingayats while Yeddyurappa has gone a step further by putting 70 Lingayats in the fray. The Janata Dal-Secular, led by former Prime Minister Deve Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy, believes in the strength of the Vokkaliga community which accounts for a little over 15% of the State’s population. As many as 56 candidates of Janata Dal-S are Vokkaligas. The Congress party, hoping to return to power in Karnataka, is banking on votes of backward castes and minorities. Close of 50 candidates from backward castes have managed to bag tickets from the Congress. Should caste play such an important role in a State which boasts of being the Information Technology (IT) industry capital of India, housing blue chips like Infosys and Wipro? Do caste equations lie entrenched beneath the glitzy face of cosmopolitan Bengaluru, especially when Karnataka has higher-than-national average literacy and is fast becoming one of the better developed States of the nation? One argument is that various

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

ERE IS NO DEARTH OF ISSUES; MISSING IN KARNATAKA political interests vie for the votes of the same caste groups and it may not work on a stand-alone basis. For example, both BJP and KJP are trying to attract the Lingayats and both cannot be successful in doing so. The reality, veteran politicians feel, is that caste equations will work better in rural areas and may be a deciding factor in half of the State which lies away from Bengaluru. Each caste group wants political clout and say in decisionmaking, they point out. That could be an unending debate and final evidence of how caste equations work will be seen in the dividends that the major parties reap. CORRUPTION, BELLARY STYLE If Info Tech is the crowning glory of

Bengaluru, the IT making waves in Bellary is Income Tax department. The riches of Bellary, with the largest number of small planes and helicopters among any small town in India, were once like folklore in Karnataka. The Reddy brothers of Bellary played a key role in Karnataka becoming the first BJP citadel in the South and their fall was more rapid than their rise. Justice Santosh Hegde as Lokayukta daringly exposed the monumental corruption in mining. Gali Janardhan Reddy is in jail and the Reddy brothers are no longer the force they used to be. Yeddyurappa split BJP after he was forced to step down from the chief minister’s post and this is sure to damage the party in a big way. All this is due to exposure of corruption that

has become a major issue in the election campaign this time. CBI and Income Tax are the buzzwords. The other side of the coin, however, is the skepticism of the public that corruption does not deter a candidate from attracting votes and a clean image alone is not enough to ensure victory. It is a question of ‘your corruption against mine’ argument with every party trying to defend graft in its own ranks while not hesitating to attack opposition parties at the slightest hint of a scam. In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Reddy wins election after election from the confines of his jail. And, there are miners and builders in every camp in Karnataka. How Yeddyurappa, Bellary brothers and Kumaraswamy fare will establish if

PERSPECTIVES

BJP leader and Gujarat Chief Minister

NARENDRA MODI

Vice President of Congress

RAHUL GANDHI

H D KUMARASWAMY

I will show him (Rahul Gandhi) how one man can set everything right, Though born with a golden spoon, he (Rahul) did not read much, especially Indian history. He should have done some homework before giving sermons. He may be right about Pandit Nehru and Indira Gandhi that one man (or woman) can’t do everything. But Sardar (Vallabhai) Patel and Lal Bahadur Shastri have shown how one man can change everything.

Congress will focus on development. Unlike the BJP’s false promises about 24-hour power supply, we will give three-phase power supply for eight hours. We will give water to the farmers and take up Rs 10,000 crore worth irrigation works in the Krishna basin.

People are fed up with all the parties. They are not going to take any serious decision about corruption. They want their day-to-day problems to be solved by the government. They will support the party who takes this seriously.

Janata Dal-Secular

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corruption indeed is a major factor. DEVELOPMENT NOT INCLUSIVE Bangalore, the showpiece of Karnataka’s growth, is suffocating due to traffic jams, water shortage, pollution, clogged drains and botched-up waste management. Mismanagement of solid municipal waste, a major problem in every Indian metro, has become an acute headache for people living in Karnataka’s Capital. Once famed as Garden City, now it often turns into a stinking urban jungle. Mysore fears that it may choke like Bengaluru if unplanned development persists. Karnataka has been among the more prosperous States where you do not hear of farmers’ suicide or malnutrition causing deaths. However, development has been restricted to urban pockets and rural areas remain infrastructure-deficient. Only the bountry of rivers like Cauvery is keeping the Karnataka farmer going. The lack of development in rural pockets could result in anti-incumbency votes, feel political observers. The counterpoint is that political drama like the agitation

BJP leaders on the campaign trail. Will the lotus bloom?

PERSPECTIVES

SIDDARAMIAH

Congress leader Modi has no moral right to comment on Congress rule in Delhi or elsewhere. Modi cannot lift the fortunes of the sinking BJP in Karnataka. The people of Karnataka have witnessed BJP government for the last five years and will throw it out.

india debates 1-15 May 2013

BS YEDDYURAPPA

KJP

People have seen my work and the KJP has fielded better candidates than others. We will spring a surprise after the elections. The KJP will emerge as the single-largest party. I am confident that the KJP will get at least 110 seats.

against release of Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu brings larger dividends. Real estate developers are among the biggest beneficiaries of the unplanned growth of Karnataka, but many of them are in the fray with their super rich status reflecting in the several hundred crores of networth they have declared. It looks as if other issues, especially the emotional ones, will occupy more mindspace, but lack of development is sure to turn into an election issue sooner than later as citizens emphasise their right to basic facilities. CLASH OF TITANS A major highlight of Karnataka election is the campaign of BJP’s Narendra Modi and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi. It is like a pre-cursor to what is in store when we go in for the general elections by next year. Both Prime Minister probables took time out to campaign in the State, though it was not as intense as it would be when it comes to Lok Sabha polls. While Modi was on the backfoot, struggling to revive the flagging fortunes of BJP hit by Yeddyurappa’s exit, Rahul was on a better wicket as the Congress is hoping to reap

POLITICS & GOVERNANCE

the benefits of the BJP fiasco. The man credited with winning Karnataka for BJP, Yeddyurappa is now contesting against the party, turning into a spoiler. And the frequent change of BJP chief ministers has not helped. The Congress also faces trouble within as there are dozens of rebel candidates. Many political observers dismiss the Modi-Rahul aspect since both leaders have not found much time for extensive campaign in Karnataka and the situation will be different next year or whenever the general elections happen. In the case of assembly segments, local issues dominate and caste equations play a larger role. BANGALORE BADSHAH A very strange aspect of this assembly election is that Kumaraswamy of Janata Dal-S is considered to have the best chance of becoming chief minister, though nobody believes that his party will win majority or even emerge as the single largest party. Why does he enjoy a better rating than Siddaramiah of Congress or Shettar of BJP? The complex equations of Karnataka’s political landscape are such. The Congress

and BJP are the main than any of the other rivals. It is felt that chief minister aspirant. KJP will be hesitant In other words, he will A MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF to ally with either have a better change KARNATAKA ELECTION IS BJP or the Congress. even if his party is THE CAMPAIGN OF BJP’S Therefore, in case not the single largest NARENDRA MODI AND of a hung assembly, and he has the knack CONGRESS VICE PRESIDENT the Janata Dal-S has of getting others to RAHUL GANDHI. IT IS LIKE a clear advantage. support him. Even A PRE-CURSOR TO WHAT History shows that 50 seats will put IS IN STORE WHEN WE Kumaraswamy will not Kumaraswamy in a GO IN FOR THE GENERAL hesitate to forge a tiesituation of strength ELECTIONS BY NEXT YEAR. up with any political and the Janata Dal-S group in the State. He seems to set to do has enjoyed power in well in its traditional Karnataka with the strongholds like support of both BJP and may not be averse Mandya. to the idea of winning over backing of the The Karnataka debate will be incomplete Congress or the KJP. Political analysts feel if we do not look at the other chief that the BJP is on a losing wicket now and minister probables and aspirants. Though Yeddyurappa’s party will win only a few Congress high command seems to be seats. The Congress, according to their with Siddaramiah at this point since he assumption, will do much better than 2008 can win over votes of backward classes, but may not get majority in 224-member former chief minister SM Krishna cannot assembly and may end up emerging the be totally ruled out. One should not single largest party. In such a scenario, forget that he resigned as the external Kumaraswamy has more maneuverability affairs minister to focus on Karnataka election, says a political analyst. The there are others like Veerappa Moily and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president Parameshwara who may also be considered in case of special circumstances. Yeddyurappa is still dreaming of returning as the chief minister, but blocking the BJP is among the top priorities of his supporters. Neither Jagdish Shettar nor former chief minister Sadanand Gowda seem to be pressing for their candidature now, but may do so if BJP miraculously jumps to the forefront. Unfortunately, the likes of Narayana Murthy and Azim Premji are not in the electoral fray though the people of Karnataka are proud of them. With increasing awareness and growing literacy, the State should wish for clean, development-oriented leaders in future rather than moneybags making a fortune in mining or real estate; and caste-oriented leaders who keep the attention of people diverted on non-issues. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this time.

Star attraction Narendra Modi is said to have given a new boost to the BJP efforts.

(G Ganapathy Subramaniam is the Chief of Bureau, New Delhi, at Puthiya Thalaimurai, the leading Tamil news channel). 1-15 May 2013 india debates

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

AVIATION

GAME CHANGER FOR INDIAN AVIATION?

he deal is done. He has brought in the first major FDI into aviation. He has been a most vocal critic of FDI, and even thwarted some big time majors like Singapore Airlines and the Tatas, even prompting Ratan Tata to say a good bye to the sector. And now when he needed equity infusion, and badly, there was this happy change in government policy facilitating his creation of a game changing situation for the present government and the sector. This is a time when the UPA is keen to get foreign investments, to restore confidence in the Indian economy, so this deal has come about as important in flagging the point that the Indian economy is enjoying international investor dollars! He does not only just know the system, he makes it, often enough. And when he can’t, he waits for situations to get better and for an opportune time when he can! That is Naresh Goyal for you. Time and again, he has run into bad weather and taken the controls himself to pilot his airline through. Never has he flown on auto-mode, but always been there in the thick of it. From scratch to a formidable 100 plus aircraft, among the best in the world, the flight path of Jet Airways has been exemplary. It is not often realised and accepted just how difficult this task would have been. From the time he started, to now, so many airline organisations from the early fledgling days of privatisation have fallen by the wayside – and some of these were run by owners with a proven track record of success and with better financial resources than him! Goyal has combined enterprise, acumen, and grit with his knowledge of the business. Each of these components has proved equally important. And he has reindia debates 1-15 May 2013

NARESH GOYAL HAS CONTINUED TO RULE THE INDIAN SKIES EVER SINCE THE LAUNCH OF JET AIRWAYS. AS FDI IN AVIATION OPENED, GOYAL WAS THERE IN WAITING.

mained focussed on his long term vision of creating a world class airline – with zero compromises. All through the various trials and tribulations, he has never lost sight of quality – for a start-up competing with the world’s best, he has shown an enviable commitment to quality by hiring the best from both within India and abroad. He

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY Over the last month, we have carried our analysis of what was then in the pipeline. While a definite body of opinion has been apprehensive of the long-term impact on Indian aviation as a whole, the deal between Etihad and Jet was inked last week. It is certainly a game changer for the airlines concerned. For Indian airports and for other Indian airlines, there is reason to be worried and even alarmed. It is expected that a foreign airline will promote a hub in its own country. But when an Indian carrier develops plans to take traffic out of 20 Indian cities to hub over Abu Dhabi, just 3 hours away, the authorities need to rethink our aviation policy. BY NAVIN BERRY

All for a good night’s sleep! The deal promises sweet pills including the US$300 mn soft loan, to begin with, at an interest rate of just 3 per cent, said to bring an immediate relief of 160 crores annually to the company’s balance sheet.

has listened and learnt, and relied upon good old common sense and an eye for detail. He has won the grudging admiration of his competitors across the world. In the process, he has enjoyed long and proven relationships with the world’s top industry captains. His has been a much respected voice in the corridors of world aviation – he has helped many an airline start, including Etihad which has now inked an equity deal with him. Hats off to Naresh Goyal – his has been a success story that will be part of the annals of the Indian corporate world for a long time. The deal has been a great winner for Jet, and for Naresh Goyal personally. It is also a great win for Etihad, and a much bigger one for Abu Dhabi as an airport hub, and finally as a tourism destination. As has been widely reported, it has not been an equally good deal for Indian aviation as a whole – both for India’s other airlines and for its own airports. As things stand, it is also the final blow for Air India – given the domination of so many airlines over the Indians skies – unless those in command can change some of the basic

ground rules, and fast. Indian aviation needs to think out of the box. We need to change the game, for everybody, here in India. We need a revised aviation policy in place, and quickly: a policy that integrates airport development with airline expansion, both for Air India and equally for Indian private operators, to create new alliances that facilitate effective airport hubbing in India. To enable us to do this, we suggest a hard nosed look at the following: Aviation fuel must get cheaper at India’s airports, and state governments must be prevailed upon to ensure this. It is only sheer myopia that inhibits them from doing so – this sector will grow, and so much that the duty exemptions will be more than compensated for. Perhaps we can’t bring the rates down to 4%, but to at least 10% ? Landing charges must be made competitive. If airport operators have to be compensated, so be it. Let the Aviation Ministry find out how to do this. Even here, we will soon start chasing volumes with more airport movements than ever

visualised – total sales at airports will witness a dramatic rise. As the present capacity of Indian airline operators is severely restricted, including that of Air India, foreign airlines in code share arrangements with Indian carriers must be allowed 5th and 6th freedom traffic rights through Indian airports. This will need to be cleverly calibrated and a detailed discussion may be called for. Global alliance carriers such as Thai Airways, with its penetration on India’s eastern direction, along with an airline like Lufthansa, flying West, in theory can hub over India but would rather hub in their own country! It will need an Indian carrier to effectively hub over India. But it must get done soon enough, as it will open up the entire sector, and yet give a new competitive edge to India as a country. We believe the new airport at Delhi is ready and willing – with 5,000 new rooms waiting to be opened. Mumbai can follow suit and Chennai thereafter. India can make at least five hubs – a country like USA has a dozen! A hub is a small city on its own, with its own 24 x 7 economy. It will open up a new business stream, a new market, and give competition to all the airports in close proximity to our country. Let us not forget that if done efficiently and competitively, there is more dynamism to touristic India than many of its neighbours. Hubs encourage stopover traffic and will be a boon for Indian inbound tourism. Some articulate observers of the aviation scene have called the Jet-Etihad deal a game changer for the sector. I am not sure, if this is good for the sector as a whole, even while it is a great new deal for Jet, Etihad and Abu Dhabi – for them individually, for sure, this deal is a game changer! But opening up India’s airports to 5th and 6th freedom, in close tie-ups with Indian carriers could well become a game changer for Indian aviation! 1-15 May 2013 india debates

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

AVIATION

INDUSTRY APPREHENSIVE ON FALLOUT OF JET-ETIHAD DEAL

IGIA New Delhi is the showpiece of India’s resurgent aviation industry. But it continues to struggle with traffic to reach the projections.

We did this story before the deal between Jet and Etihad was signed, though it was in the offing, and there were reports suggesting it was imminent. Our question was the possible long term impact of such a deal. Our question was how this would help Indian aviation as a whole? In the course of our discussions, we came across a resistance to be formally quoted. Names have been withheld in deference to such requests. An Airport Operator View point: The Ministry of Civil Aviation has clearly pronounced its intentions that Indian Airports and airlines have to regain and bring the Hubs back to India. This intention was further emphasised by the recent declaration india debates 1-15 May 2013

The alliance takes off! Jet Airways has started restructuring so that it can offload its shares as per Indian laws. Happy days are ahead.

of Govt. of India that Delhi and Chennai will be developed as the preferred hubs in the country. FDI in Indian carriers has to essentially support the Aviation policy of building hubs in India. Any policy which will jeopardize the growth of Indian hub airports and the growth of Indian hub carriers must be definitely avoided. While the FDI in Indian carriers is required to strengthen and stimulate the growth of the sector, the other indirect impact such as foreign carriers getting access to bilateral traffic rights must be carefully viewed, especially since this will impact the hub aspirations of the Indian airports as well as Indian carriers becoming ‘Spoke’ to foreign hub carriers. This will have an impact on the overall capacity and route development prospects of India and on the overall

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

economic development, keeping in view the strong impact of aviation development on the country’s overall economic aspirations. In terms of carriers, Air India currently the only other Indian carrier which can be classified as a network carrier and doing long routes will be impacted. The LCCs are likely to have a lesser impact though a share of traffic which used to travel to Delhi or Mumbai by an LCC and then take onward flight might face impact. International airlines flying to India might reduce in the scenario of higher passenger routed through Abu Dhabi. The market likely to be unaffected is the South East Asia market from India. India has clearly some distance to go in creating passenger hubs. Some of the Middle East cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and South East Asia cities like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and

Bangkok which are 3 to 4 hours of flying distance from prominent Indian cities have already established as big hubs on the aviation map. In most of the Middle East hubs, there is only minimal origin and destination traffic. Many of these hubs thrive basically on the transfer traffic (Dubai 41%, Doha 61%, Singapore 25%) etc. Most of the Indian traffic is flowing already through these hubs. The Indian aviation policy has to give a strong thrust to support the Indian carriers and the most modern Indian Airports that have developed state-of-the-art, integrated passenger terminal. This only will enable strategic hub development that can compete with the more established hub airports. • One of the strong enablers for the development of any hubs is the prominence of a strong hub carrier. All of the above hubs have strong hub carriers

like Dubai has Emirates, DOH has Qatar Airways and so on. So, in order to create a strong hub in India, a strong hub carrier is required. In the current scenario, there is only one airline that is acting as hub carrier i.e. Air India ex Delhi. • Hubs are very important for India and the benefits of Hubs are multifold: From an airline perspective: • Reduction in operating costs due to economies of scale • Ability to offer larger connectivity and higher frequencies within a given fleet size and routes • Better load factors and fleet utilization • Helps airlines to associate with alliances – which has several other benefits • Reduced risks due to traffic from diverse regions • Consolidated operations at a single Airport

PERSPECTIVES

IN THE GIVEN SCENARIO, FOREIGN AIRLINES WILL BENEFIT: SAROJ DATTA The creation of such hubs (e.g. Abu Dhabi, Doha, etc) can only have a negative effect on the growth and development of the Indian civil aviation industry and, in particular, the Government’s plans to develop stations such as Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai as direct competing hubs vs. Bangkok, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to the east of India and points in the Gulf and West Asia. In my opinion, the primary beneficiary of the close association between Jet and Etihad and the latter’s future role in determining the growth and progress of Jet will be Etihad since its geographical position, wide network and ability to expand its fleet size will enable it to divert a larger proportion of Indian originating/destined traffic from Jet’s services at Abu Dhabi. Additionally I don’t think it’ll be necessary for Jet to build a “big hub” at Abu Dhabi since the volume of traffic it’ll have access to (ex/to the Far East, South East Asia and India) will be relatively limited in volume. There are also some doubts as to whether Jet will not lose a substantial

Abu Dhabi Airport: The new port of call for Indian travellers

amount of direct traffic that it currently carries on its services to points in Europe, UK and USA/Canada to carriers like British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France etc since such traffic may not find it attractive to transit Abu Dhabi rather than undertake a non-stop journey to points in Europe etc. If such policies are continued to be followed by the Indian carriers going forward – primarily because of inadequate availability of capital resources – it will be the foreign carriers who will derive greater benefits as a result of the growth and expansion of the Indian market/carriers.

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ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

From an airport perspective: • Improved asset utilization by capturing diverse traffic markets • Larger network when compared to point-to-point connections of similar size • Helps in building global brand image of the airport, community and the nation at large • Enhanced traffic without having to invest on the Landside infrastructure • Growth options for saturating O&D market From a passenger perspective: • All these benefits to airline and airport, eventually trickles down to the passengers in terms of more options (routes), lower prices and enhanced service levels. • Most importantly, any hub airport also adds to the socio- economic development of the catchment region. AAI as well as private Airport Operators have invested heavily in the modernization of India’s gateway airports which are by now well equipped to handle transfer traffic on a large scale. The two major gateway airports Delhi and Mumbai

AS THINGS STAND, IT IS ALSO THE FINAL BLOW FOR AIR INDIA – GIVEN THE DOMINATION OF SO MANY AIRLINES OVER THE INDIANS SKIES – UNLESS THOSE IN COMMAND CAN CHANGE SOME OF THE BASIC GROUND RULES, AND FAST. INDIAN AVIATION NEEDS TO THINK OUT OF THE BOX. WE NEED TO CHANGE THE GAME, FOR EVERYBODY, HERE IN INDIA.

currently account for over 50 percent of international capacity. The development of a hub at closer proximity would impact further growth of these gateways as hub is likely to be fed through direct narrow bodies from smaller cities. The recovery of investment and growth of these and benefits associated with a gateway airport will be impacted. Having gateway airport within the country makes it possible for the gateway to consolidate traffic from the country and develop new routes. An international gateway is likely to focus less on new route development and trade links than a major domestic gateway. The intentions and promulgations of the Indian government are clear on ensuring that the Indian carriers and the Indian airports work together to create the hub and spoke operations to counter the threat from Middle East and South East Asia hubs. The policy framework and the required boost in the right direction needs to be tailor made to ensure that this becomes a reality for India. Some of the critical issues which need immediate policy attention are :

PERSPECTIVES

FROM A FORMER COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR OF AIR INDIA A Hub, by the very definition and case studies, is an airport which, for a variety of reasons and ‘helpful’ factors created by the ‘Regulatory Authorities’, receives shorthaul passengers from widely dispersed catchment territory and ‘enables’ them on connecting long-haul flights. l

It is true that governments must create and promote a Hub/Hubs in it’s sovereign territory as a part of its aviation policy. But, and it’s unfortunate, that there has never been a clear vision to steer such a policy in India. l

India, given it’s market size, could have 2/3 highly effective hubs. My guess would be Delhi/Mumbai/Banglore. But to have these Hubs to succeed, the likes of Emirates, Lufthansa, SQ should not l

india debates 1-15 May 2013

have been given access and millions of seats in the last decade to virtually every point of call in India which has any semblance of international traffic. Traffic rights and points of call were given first, the airports were built later. The process should have been in the reverse order. l

Now, let us consider the Jet Airways compulsions. Jet is primarily a short haul carrier; given its fleet composition. But it has long haul ambitions. If it plans to build a hub over Delhi or Mumbai, it must secure a long haul partner through a Global Alliance. It does not have any negotiating position there because all major long haul carriers have 7-10 points of call in India and do not need Jet. l

Abu Dhabi is a rewarding opening for it. It gets a long haul partner, who has by itself not been a great success in India. In Etihad, it finds a partner who has been playing second fiddle to Emirates and hopes to acquire a pole position in that region. l

There is no doubt, the arrangement envisaged is a win win situation for both and equally for the people in command in various Bhavans in New Delhi. l

The goal of making this country an Aviation Hub, to my mind is already lost with Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Dubai and Frankfurt having already stolen a long march over our bureaucrats. Abu Dhabi is soon going to join these successful cities. l

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

The much-awaited turnaround with the Dreamliners got a jolt, with the announcement of the Jet-Etihad deal. Air India is said to launch five new stations within the next five months as the 787 are set to fly again soon. How much this will translate into effective hubbing over Indian airports remains to be seen?

• ASEAN policy wherein currently ASEAN airlines can operate unlimited capacity into 18 Indian cities, which will get further liberalized when India joins the group. The 18 cities will become ‘spokes’ for ASEAN hubs limiting the scope for India to develop her hubs. • More and more Indian tier 2-3 airports are being designated as International/ Customs airports, reducing the ability of Indian airline to build transfer traffic, over the established networks of metro cities, from these tier 2-3 cities • The bilateral traffic rights, a national asset, needs to be more proactive so that the utilization by Indian carriers is not hampered owing to undue protection of narrow and limited industry interests. While FDI is necessary, the same being subject to negotiation of additional traffic rights, to the parent Country, of the investing carriers must be strictly precluded within the policy frame work. The Indian carrier receiving the FDI should also not be granted undue traffic rights to the country of the investing

carrier beyond the 5th freedom origin and destination requirement on the route. This will avoid flow of 6th freedom traffic over the international hubs within 2-4 hour range from India hubs. In short, the policy framework should effectively ensure FDI for the right and legitimate reasons. • The mixed/confluence flight concept, available to AI, not being allowed to rest of the Indian carriers. This concept will be a major enabler to Indian carriers to launch flights from tier 2-3 cities via Indian metro cities building traffic on routes otherwise not feasible • The well understood industry issues of taxation on first/business class travel, service tax, ATF taxation etc., will go a long way in resolving the Indian airline woes instead of opening up FDI. The carriers using FDI route will also continue to face the challenges which are currently being experienced by Indian carriers and will end up in a similar situation. Ideally, a high level Hub Development Council under the aegis of MoCA with

representation of all stake holders can help unite all concerned and induce their working in tandem. Indian carriers forming hubs abroad can benefit Indian aviation in certain conditions: 1. The hub is long haul hub thereby feeding into destinations which should essentially be longer duration flights. 2. The international hub should bring a geographical advantage for it to justify as an international hub. 3. It is also important for the government to then consider that domestic hubs of BOM and DEL will be augmented by controlled/ or no traffic rights being awarded for foreign carriers to be flying into Tier II airports, over the heads of these metro hubs. 4. Alliances play a major role in increasing connectivity options and thereby traffic throughput through right alliance membership. The Govt. could take the lead to encourage our domestic carriers to become members of large alliances like Star, Sky or OneWorld. 1-15 May 2013 india debates

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY GUEST COLUMN

SANJEEV CHOPRA

THE TRUST DEFICIT

his column is being punched to processed food manufacturers and THE GOVERNMENT DOES in the UIC conference exporters. Why is our model so depenNOT TRUST THE INDUSTRY, Hall (which belongs to dent on subsidy regimes? Why don’t we AND VICE VERSA. THE the International Union of empower our corporates to bring in efGOVERNMENT FEELS THAT Railways) and has a splendid view of ficiencies of scale and scope and look to IT HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY the iconic motif of Paris - the Eiffel the world as the global market? When TO ‘INTERVENE’ AT EVERY Tower. Paris is known for so many will our NCCD raise enough subscripSTEP- BUT IN MOST CASES, landmarks – the Champs Elysee, the tions from its members and generate IT MISINTERPRETS THIS Louvre, the public sculpture, including revenues from its services to become INTERVENTION INTO INTERDICTION. CONVERSELY, the statue of liberty, the coffee a truly independent think tank for the THE INDUSTRY THAT IS shops, the Notre Dame, the Bastille, sector? OBVIOUSLY DOMAIN MASTERS boulevards, the public sculptures, the Let me attempt an answer. The reason IN THEIR MATTERS, TEND parks, the streets, the Seine River, the is “trust deficit”. The government does TO VIEW THE GOVERNMENT cruise, the Lido and the Moulin Rouge not trust the industry, and vice versa. The AS A SOURCE OF EASY FUNDS and the lovely bookshop: Shakespeare government feels that it has the responsiRATHER THAN AS DIRECTION and company. It has also become an bility to ‘intervene’ at every step- but in SETTERS ON A NATIONAL SCALE. important convention centre, and most cases, it misinterprets this intervenon any single day there are scores of tion into interdiction. Conversely, the international conferences, and the hotels are stretched for industry that is obviously domain masters in their matters, tend service, especially as the unions enforce the 35 hour a week to view the government as a source of easy funds rather than as norm! On the positive side, pedestrians , cyclists and now direction setters on a national scale. The aspiration is that the eco-vans (cycle rickshaws) get priority over cars , and given public agenda of the government and the private development the parking problems in the main ‘rues’(streets), Paris and of industry have to work in tandem and in synergy for the prefer walking or taking the Metro. overall national good. Such collaboration can happen through However before this becomes a column on Paris, and loses greater and freer interaction where the concerns are freely the focus from AgriMatters, allow your columnist to explain shared. Every problem need not have a solution… sometimes the background of his Paris sojourn. The (Indian) National working around a roadblock is the best resolution. Working Centre for Cold-chain Development (NCCD) which is curtogether requires trust. This implies that both the government rently headed by yours truly was signing a MoU with its and the private sector take the first steps together to understand French counterpart, Cemafroid – which has now completed that in the long run –only cost effective and efficient solutions 55 years of its existence. Cemafroid was established in 1958 will work. Given the electricity supply position in our country, by the French Ministry of Agriculture, but over the years industry ought to evolve ‘off –grid’ solutions to provide the real has evolved into an organization of stakeholders. Thus while boost to the sector by working closely with National innovation the French Ministry of Agriculture works very closely with Foundation and the Renewable Energy Resources Ministry. Cemafroid, it has its own budget, its own employees and Indeed, they have to be roped in as important stakeholders in drives its own agenda. Similar arrangements are in vogue in the cold chain infrastructure. Germany, England, Holland and Denmark, among others, and mark a very healthy collaboration between the state and This brings us to another point. Why are the French (as the private sector. Most importantly, it is based on mutual also the Dutch, the Belgians, Germans and Israelis) so keen trust and appreciation of each other’s role, a high degree of to collaborate with us? The reason is simple. They see our transparency, and strict adherence to rules of the game. The potential; they see that the future is here. As explained by obvious question that crops up is: why can’t we replicate this Pawanexh Kohli, the Chief Advisor of NCCD in his lead model for India – not just for cold chain, but for several other presentation on India as the next destination for cold chain domains – ranging from bee keeping and honey to saffron – the country has emerged as the leading producer of dairy

india debates 1-15 May 2013

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

View of a cold storage near Delhi-NCCD has been formed to encourage public-private partnership to promote a sector where supply is less than half of the actual demand in the country.

and meat products besides an impresrising, it made more sense to invest CEMAFROID WAS ESTABLISHED IN sive production of horticulture and allied money to persevere the quality and 1958 BY THE FRENCH MINISTRY sectors. There have been major gains in extend its shelf life, rather than letOF AGRICULTURE, BUT OVER THE our ability to implement programmes ting it waste. In simpler terms, as YEARS HAS EVOLVED INTO AN on the ground - the eradication of polio prices of fruits and vegetables touch ORGANIZATION OF STAKEHOLDERS. is a good example. Among other things, the roof, it made greater sense to THUS WHILE THE FRENCH polio eradication needs an efficient cold invest in refrigeration, logistics and MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE WORKS chain. From three hundred thousand transport than ever before. Using VERY CLOSELY WITH CEMAFROID, cases a year in the eighties to none in the technology and associated operating IT HAS ITS OWN BUDGET, ITS OWN past two years shows that given political energy costs allowed the producer – EMPLOYEES AND DRIVES ITS will and administrative commitment, it the farmer to extend his reach into OWN AGENDA. can be done. The challenge now is to buying markets that he could never upscale it in the food sector. access. The effective use of cold chain The economic fundamentals are strong – certainly stronis not merely to extend storage times but to open new pipe ger than in Europe and USA and there was great scope for lines and trade with far away and distant regions. economic partnerships between technology providers and It is this fundamental benefit that cold chain offers a farmer; primary producers. In fact, the Indian market was growing the choice to move away from the traditional singular mandi so rapidly that it made a lot of sense to shift the production to the multi-buyer landscape. This option to sell to a buyer of base to India to ensure better interface with the users as the choice is through spanning time and seasons or more comground conditions and requirements for the post harvest monly by allowing safe and direct transit across distances to management were different from Europe. This could also bethe consumer. come the hub for extending PHM and refrigeration services The European farmer has done it and made good money! It’s to South Asia and burgeoning Africa. Moreover as the ‘value’ now time for India. of the produce types which are amenable to cold chain is *(The author is Joint Secretary – Ministry of Agriculture)

1-15 May 2013 india debates

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY GUEST COLUMN

SHILABHADRA BANERJEE

ON THE ROAD TO SELF RELIANCE IN DEFENCE PROCUREMENT

ased on report of the Group of Ministers on National Security System in India, the procedure for Defence Procurements, laid down in 1992, was revised in 2002. Since then, till 2011, these procedures were revised six times, based on experience gained in implementation. Starting with a procedure for the ‘Buy’ category in 2002, subsequent revisions added procedures for the ‘Buy and Make’ and ‘Make’ categories, with a separate ‘Procedure for Ship Building’ and a ‘Fast Track Proce-

india debates 1-15 May 2013

INDIA HAS NOT LEVERAGED HER PRE-EMINENT POSITION AS A MARKET FOR MILITARY EQUIPMENT, TO BUILD ‘A ROBUST DOMESTIC MILITARYINDUSTRIAL BASE’, WITH IMPORTS ACCOUNTING FOR MORE THAN 60% OF ANNUAL EXPENDITURE ON ACQUISITIONS.

dure’. The objective was to put in place systemic reforms that would ensure transparency and probity in the decision making process, keeping in view the need to achieve self-reliance in defence equipment. The recent decisions of the Ministry of Defence (MOD), that include amendments to the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), are a part of this process. These decisions and amendments seek to create a level playing field in Defence acquisitions for Indian manufacturing industries vis-à-vis Global

ECONOMY & INDUSTRY

R&D and technology for manufacturing equipment that would be required by the Indian Armed Forces. The mandate of the MOD to the Armed Forces to begin consultations well in advance to enable capital acquisition plans being translated into national defence R&D and production plans in addition to its announcement of setting up a high-level Committee for simplifying the ‘Make’ procedure, are significant. The ‘Make’ procedure was promulgated to ‘ ensure Indigenous Research, Design, Development and Production of capabilities sought by the Armed Forces in a prescribed time frame while optimally utilising the potential of the Indian Industry’ and ‘achieve self reliance in Defence Equipment’. It was based on the report of the Kelkar Committee that recommended an intePlayers. Of particular importance are the grated approach involving Users, MOD, preference for indigenous equipment over and the Industry. While the Defence ReWHILE THE DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT imported, the release of a public version search and Development Organisation ORGANISATION (DRDO) WOULD of MOD’s 15 Year perspective document (DRDO) would concentrate on projects CONCENTRATE ON PROJECTS (LTIPP) in the ‘Technology Perspective requiring sophisticated technology of REQUIRING SOPHISTICATED and Capability Roadmap’ (TPCR), doing strategic, complex and security sensitive TECHNOLOGY OF STRATEGIC, away with the provision in the Defence nature, R&D work of high technology COMPLEX AND SECURITY Procurement Procedure (DPP), 2011, could be outsourced to the private secSENSITIVE NATURE, R&D WORK for the nomination of firms for maintetor, with the costs being shared and a OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY COULD nance contracts by the Department of minimum order quantity being spelt out BE OUTSOURCED TO THE Defence Production (DDP), and setting to ensure financial viability. As these obPRIVATE SECTOR, WITH THE up a Committee to simplify the ‘Make’ jectives have not yet been achieved, the COSTS BEING SHARED AND A procedure, among others. High-level Committee, set up to review MINIMUM ORDER QUANTITY BEING SPELT OUT TO ENSURE This announcement is to be seen in and simplify the ‘Make’ procedure, needs FINANCIAL VIABILITY. the backdrop of the fact that India has to get down to work without any delay. emerged as the largest importer of arms in The bottlenecks impeding the implementhe World, with a reported annual Capitation of this important initiative must be tal Budget of $ 16 billion. Despite this, quickly identified and removed to build ‘a the criticism has been that India has not robust domestic military-industrial base’. levereged her pre-eminent position as a market for military equipTill that happens, India would have to continue modernising ment, to build ‘a robust domestic military-industrial base’, with her Armed Forces by sourcing equipment in a world market imports accounting for more than 60% of annual expenditure dominated by few players who cannot offer cutting edge techon acquisitions. Considering this and the risk involved in overnology, hemmed in by denial regimes. As an emerging power dependence on imports, the announcements made by MOD to with complex security responsibilities, India must have access strengthen the Indian manufacturing sector, are welcome. to such technologies. As these would not be forthcoming from With the priority now accorded in the DPP for the acquithose who developed and have them, it is imperative that comsition of military equipment from indigenous sources, the petencies in the Indian private and public sectors are harnessed announcement that would be of particular interest to the Indian to supplement efforts of the DRDO for indigenously developmanufacturing establishment is that a public version of the ing defence technologies and equipment required by the Indian LTIPP would be released in the TPCR. This would indicate the Armed Forces. To this end, the recent decisions of the MOD technologies and capabilities that Indian Armed Forces would are in the right direction. be seeking in the medium term. This information would enable Indian manufacturing entities to target their investments in (The author is former Secretary to Government of India)

1-15 May 2013 india debates

LIFE AROUND US

ADVERTISING

When the Desire to innovate goes overboard The recent Ford Figo scam ads were trashed for being sexist. The Amul Macho underwear ads were labelled obscene. And last year, Benetton’s Unhate campaign, which showed world leaders in lip-locks, saw global protests. Do ad gurus need to watch their mouths? BY PRERNA RATURI

he advertising world remains utterly fascinating in the way it is able to conjure up brands out of anything – everyone is familiar by now with the story of how advertising agencies took a non-descript can of carbonated beverage to worldwide iconic status, leaving a trail of lessons in the use of imagination and thinking out-of-thebox, as it were. And everyone is familiar too with the fact that advertising is one of the most demanding of professions, and among the most competitive, even as agencies help their own clients stay ahead of rivals in their respective markets. Breaking innovative ground to stand out from the competition, yet maintaining a carefully crafted image is imperative for every brand. And Benetton is a good example of an idea that broke away from the clutter of readymade garments, yet retained its sense of cool thanks to innovative and shocking photographs by Olivero Toscani.

Of course, there are times when supposedly creative, clutter-cutting advertising can be perceived as irresponsible, prejudiced, biased, sexist, and… you get the picture. Even Benetton’s latest creatives for their Unhate campaign last year with visuals of world leaders such as American President Barack Obama, China’s Hu Jintao Hugo Chavez and even the Pope kissing each other on the lips, drew considerable flak. But the list of controversial ads unfortunately, is endless. From Dolce and Gabbana’s print ad evoking a scene of gang rape, to a Gucci campaign that showed a woman at a man’s feet, to our very own ad for men’s undergarments where the woman goes into a sexual frenzy washing her husband’s briefs. Every few years, in fact, an ad is perceived as so offensive that it gets noticed beyond its home country and makes global headlines. This happened most recently with the Ford Figo fiasco

PERSPECTIVES KIRAN KHALAP

Founder, Chlorophyll Brand and Communications This so-called fine line is probably drawn by advertising agencies themselves in order to talk to one another, rather than to the audience.

india debates 1-15 May 2013

ARUN VERMA

Founder, AVDS There has to be a fine line because advertising is serious business. Even if you want to let yourself fly, it is art on a restricted canvas and you have to respect that.

in India which has also put a spotlight on the issue of scam advertising, which are ads that are created not to sell products or services, but to win awards and is work which has not been approved and has never run other than experimentally. Three scam ads created by JWT India, have caused Ford India global embarrassment. Created for the international auto giant’s small car Figo, the ads highlighted the spacious boot space of the car with provocative caricatures, the first of former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi giving a peace sign from behind the steering wheel, even as three buxom, scantily-clad women bound and gagged women lay in the boot space. The second ad showed a smug Paris Hilton happy with the fact that she had the Kardashian sisters in the boot, long legs, pouts, cleavages and all. The third ad which drew the least public criticism showed Michael Schumacher with his three arch competitors Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton comfortably fitted in the Figo’s boot. The general public was up in arms since the ads came at a time when not just India but people in many other countries who had heard about it were still reeling from the after-effects of the barbaric rape that had taken place in Delhi. Trying to contain the damage caused by the swirl of negative publicity, Ford India issued a statement, “We deeply regret this incident and agree with our agency partners that it should have never happened. The posters are contrary to the standards of professionalism and decency within Ford

LIFE AROUND US

and our agency partners.” Not just that, JWT’s managing partner and chief creative officer Bobby Pawar had to resign along with a few others. There are some from the industry who disagree with the fallout. “But why all the tamasha, I ask? Berlusconi’s bunga-bunga parties are stale news and were covered by virtually all newspapers in the world. I don’t understand why this particular poster was singled out when it was merely portraying the obvious – a womanising Berlusconi,” says an advertising professional who does not wish to be named. But whether or not this incident helps end sexist scam advertising, it should make it tougher to release work which does not proactively consider societal context and impact along with brand and target audience insights. But is there really a fine line between blasé and irreverent on one hand, and irresponsible on the other? “There is no such thing. This so-called fine line is probably drawn by advertising agencies themselves in order to talk to one another, rather than to the audience,” says Kiran Khalap, founder, Chlorophyll Brand and Communications. He feels there is only one truth that any Advertising often makes the efforts to create long-term ad must relate to: “The real-life retention in the mind of the consumers. context of the brand that exists inside the head of the target.” And while it is okay to think out-of-the- game. “A risky do-or-die gesture can also box, Arun Verma, founder, Arun Verma cause harm to the brand being advertised Design Studio, says, “There has to be a if it actually does not make the targeted fine line because advertising is serious audiences reach for their wallets,” he says. business. Even if you want to let yourself Not to mention that controversy eats up fly, it is art on a restricted canvas and time and money, reducing further the you have to respect that.” Verma should already reducing RoI on advertising. know, since a few of his clients are from But should there be a fine line for the Middle-East, where countries have advertising? “It has to be drawn. Very a strict code of conduct for advertising. often we misuse creative license,” says ad “Not just that, you are restricted by clients guru Swapan Seth, “Some creatives are and market dynamics, too.” offensive, there is no denying that.” Khalap of Chlorophyll also feels Seth is expressing the sentiments of attracting controversies is a high-risk most consumers, creative experts and

brand gurus. When talking about the touchstone for ad agencies to ensure that creatives attract attention but not controversies, Seth says, “It requires the creation of a culture that is both sensitive and responsible. Beyond that, it also requires monitoring.” Khalap agrees with the culture angle and cites ads to back his view. For instance, a famous ad for perfume Jaipur from the House of Boucheron ran in the 1990s, showing a naked woman’s wrists handcuffed with the perfume bottle (the bottle had been designed like a bracelet). While it freely ran in Indian magazines, it was pulled out of UK magazines within a week. “That’s because while the Indian audiences didn’t get the sado-masochistic aspect of sex from the visual, the British audience did!” says Khalap. In 2003, an ad released in Brazil showed their famous filmstar Luiza Tome breastfeeding her twins. “But despite Indians singing praises of mother, ma, mata, can you imagine an Indian actress posing like that with her baby, even in 2013?” he asks, resting his case. And while advertisements and branding exercises need to keep cultural sensibilities in mind, Verma of ADVS feels that there are some lines already drawn. “Of course there are people taking a lot of liberties since we are in the business of communication and there are times that you have to exaggerate, but it shouldn’t be done to the point of being unbelievable,” Verma cautions. A good creative process doesn’t begin with an interesting visual or verbal idea. It starts with gathering business and user insights and using that information to develop a concept that actually works for the target audience. There’s n o poin t in “ ce ns or i ng ” , however. “This ruse of ‘it hurts my sensibilities’ is being used democratically: not just for advertising, but art, film titles, books, museums are all equal and helpless victims of this uncivilised new trend,” says Khalap. 1-15 May 2013 india debates

LIFE AROUND US

SPORTS

SACHIN @40

Though he is still in the fray, the master blaster has recently slipped on to the right side of 40. So what are the options he now has, as his cricketing career nears to its end? BY NORRIS PRITAM

he British, for short of anything, discuss the unpredictable English weather. In India, for a long we have settled for Sachin Tendulkar’s retirement. Will he retire? When will he retire? Will he play the next World Cup? These are the questions that have kept the Indian masses busy for quite some time now. The Master Blaster himself has given no indication. But even he can’t change the natural process of aging. And sooner or later he has to call it a day. And when he does it, another tag line will add to Sachin Saga. What will he do after retirement? Will he still be connected to the game that he loved so much? Or will he go into some business venture? Or just simply go to the mountains far from the maddening crowd and enjoy the serenity of the hills? Some amount of speculation on Sachin’s post-retirement life is quite natural. After all he is contemporary cricket’s greatest icon and India is blessed that he was born on the Indian soil. Sportspersons of his stature and commitment generally stay india debates 1-15 May 2013

hooked to the sport they excel in after retirement. But trouble with Sachin is that he is so passionate about the game that anywhere near cricket he would still like to play, says Vijay Lokapally a very close friend of Sachin’s. “I don’t think Sachin can take up coaching because once on the ground he would like to play,’’ says Lokapally. The man himself has not discussed his post-retirement plans. In a recent interview to Vijay Lokapally of the Hindu, Sachin admitted that being with his family was his first option.” I have spent so much of time away from family. I have been playing cricket since I was 13. I would like to spend time with them.’’ He was 13 when his talent was noticed. At 16 he

WHAT WILL HE DO AFTER RETIREMENT? WILL HE STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE GAME THAT HE LOVED SO MUCH? OR WILL HE GO INTO SOME BUSINESS VENTURE? OR JUST SIMPLY GO TO THE MOUNTAINS FAR FROM THE MADDENING CROWD AND ENJOY THE SERENITY OF THE HILLS?

LIFE AROUND US emerged as a budding star and has stayed at the top for the past 23 years. But his passion for the game has remained the same. According to Lokapally ``when the coach would announce “optional” practice, the ground staff would prepare for Tendulkar to arrive early and plunge into his batting sessions. With two bats tucked under his arm, this man wastes little time on the field. If he is not batting, he is bowling or doing throw downs or taking catches or simply watching and analysing some youngster in the ‘nets’.’’ Keeping such a man away from the game would be so difficult unless he himself decides to do so. In a recent promotional event in New Delhi Sachin gave a fitting reply to journalists persisting with questions on his retirement. ``People have been talking about my retirement since 2995, but that does not worry me at all. Your job is to write, my job is to play. I will stick to my job and you stick to yours’’ An ardent music fan, may be Sachin has heard Beatle John Lenon’s ``Life begins at 40’’, a song Lenon Lenon wrote when he and Ringo Starr turned 40 years of age. Or may be Sachin read the New York Times which once carried a story saying “life expectancy has continued to move on and forty now seems no age at all. All our age benchmarks, which used to seem solid as rocks, have turned into shifting sands. ‘Life begins at 40? More like 60’. Financial security comes as the greatest concern or apprehension to most Indian sportspersons at the time of retirement. Fortunately for Sachin this aspect is taken care of in abundance. In fact his retirement should be of concern to the some 17 companies whose products he endorses. According to media reports a senior official at Toshiba, one of the brands Sachin endorses, says “Sachin’s retirement should be a major concern for all brands. It’s a major concern for us as well.’’ Rohit Ohri, Executive Chairman, Dentsu India, feels that “If brands decide to terminate Sachin’s contract if he retires, it will do more damage to the brand, considering Sachin’s demi-god status.’’ Like the brand managers, millions of fans will be far more affected by

Sachin’s retirement than the Little Master himself. Offices, school, coffee houses and restaurants will be short of conversation starter. His centuries, curls and looking up to the sky after a century have always helped Indians to flow their conversational juices. Even sports journalists will have to look for another topic for a good copy. But if Sachin decides to attend the Rajya Sabha regularly, media gallery will surely have full attendance. Already owner of a restaurant, Sachin is considered a successful entrepreneur. But all these years his brother has been looking after Sachin’s business interests. Post-retirement it is not going to change much. Moreover for a man of Sachin’s nature and character it may be difficult to be a full time hotelier. Perhaps one activity that Sachin is sure to indulge is grooming his son to be a top cricketer. Often sportspersons want to realize their own unfulfilled dreams through their children. What can be more comforting for Sachin than to put cricketer son Arjun on the right direction? In the case of Sachin there is hardly any dream that has remained unfulfilled. It is fortunate for Arjun that he will not be under any pressure to realize it for his father. According to Sachin “earlier he (Arjun) didn’t know much because I hardly discussed cricket with him. He would get upset when I was not at home. Later when he started travelling with me, saw the response of various people, how they treated me, cheered me when I walked on to the field to bat, it changed everything for him. From there on he came to understand why I had to leave home so often.’’ Sachin had a dream – to be the best in the sport he loved so much. May be post-retirement he can stop dreaming. But nothing can stop his passion for the game. ``Your passion for sport or your profession is important, that drive has to be there to help you push harder, find a reason to work harder. It is important to dream and chase your dream. To chase your dream and turn it into reality, you have to be disciplined. There are just no short cuts in sport and life.’’

PERSPECTIVES KAPIL DEV “Important stage of Tendulkar’s career is over. The Little Master can be a great ambassador of the game like Sourav Ganguly, Anil Kumble and Rahul Dravid. Tendulkar must move on and beautiful things will happen to him. If you have other things going on in your life, then retirement is not so difficult.” VIVIAN RICHARDS “Sachin is still a class act and should not be pressured into calling time on his career. When Sachin wants to retire is his call. It’s completely an individual call. He alone should decide. I would never dare to walk up to Sachin and tell him that ‘you go tomorrow.’’ GAUTAM BHATTACHARYA – CRICKET WRITER “When Tendulkar retires there will be a huge void not just in Indian cricket but in Indian society. Tendulkar’s bat is a healing touch for India. When he scores runs there is suddenly happiness all around you.’’

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LIFE AROUND US

GOLD PERSONAL FINANCE

TO BUY OR NOT TO BUY?

Going by the warning signals from several quarters, cyclical pressure and global economic equations may keep gold in a subdued zone for a long time. Probably, buyers encouraged by the recent steep fall in its price, need to be more cautious than ever before.

t’s a bonanza which both traders and buyers seem to be relishing immensely. The steep decline in the prices of gold (as much as 20 percent in recent weeks following global cues) has resulted in buyers lining up to acquire more of an asset which is believed to have greater appeal (emotional and otherwise) than any other investment instrument. And this is a trend which all leading bullion markets are confirming. Forget Del h i a nd Mu mba i, a n unprecedented rush was witnessed even in the market of Bhopal on the occasion of Pushya Nakshtra recently with the dealers reporting a whopping 25-30 percent jump in the sale of gold ornaments. And if the declining trend continues for some more time, gold dealers are expected to laugh all the way to their banks with the onset of the marriage season. “Demand has been extraordinary in the past 15 days and sales this April have been much better than last year,” Kamal Gupta, chairman of P.P. Jewellers was quoted as saying on a wire service. Another bullion dealer in Delhi believes that May would see the unfolding of real action starting one week prior to Akshay Tritiya. At the surface level, one can hardly find fault in the bullishness of retail investors for the precious yellow metal. It’s no secret to anybody that the Indian appetite for gold is legendary and has made this country the world’s largest importer of the metal. And in the past eleven years, its price has steadily gone up – by as much as seven times. Around the end of 2001, gold prices in the domestic market were slightly more

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LIFE AROUND US

than Rs 4000/10gm which skyrocketed to over Rs 31,000/10gm by 2012 --truly fabulous returns by any yardstick. Especially when viewed in the context of the serious recessionary conditions which had gripped the global economy particularly in the developed countries of the west (many of which are yet to completely revive) in 2008. If conventional rules are applied, then it is hardly surprising that gold fared well in troubled times. It is a commonplace belief in the market that when equity goes down, the bullion market comes to the rescue of investors. It is in bullion’s ability to act contrarian that it derives its magnet ism a nd is dubbed a safe investment especially in terms of hedging against inflation. In markets like India the metal enjoys a long historical legacy and even in a liberalised era is a preferred instrument for the majority of small investors. Barring a small section, the equity culture is yet to be embraced by retail investors in the country. In an ordinary situation, the renewed surge in gold sales would hardly have raised any eyebrows. But the issue goes much deeper this time. The broader issue is: what if gold loses its safe investment tag for the medium term scenario? That is, what if there are more price corrections in the modest to massive range and with demand being subdued for next five years, investors who are acquiring bullion now are forced to hold on to their acquisitions for a very long time? Though no doomsayer is predicting this in decisive terms, there are broad hints that gold’s dream run of the past ten years is over and what awaits it now is a prolonged subdued phase. Consider this. HSBC recently lowered its gold forecast for this year – to $1,542 per ounce from $1,700 and the 2014 price outlook to $1,600 per ounce from $1,720. The ba nk in its a na lysis has most ly underlined the near term possibilities and has hinted at price stabilisation in a few months’ time (one interpretation of t his assumption could well mean volatility continuing to rule the roost for quite some time). “Lower prices generate more buying, especially in India and China. Based on the fragmented nature of this buying, it may take months for this new demand to feed into prices,”

PERSPECTIVES KAMAL GUPTA

Chairman of P.P. Jewellers Demand has been extraordinary in the past 15 days and sales this April have been much better than last year.

JAMES STEEL

HSBC analyst Lower prices generate more buying, especially in India and China. Based on the fragmented nature of this buying, it may take months for this new demand to feed into prices.

FORGET DELHI AND MUMBAI, AN UNPRECEDENTED RUSH WAS WITNESSED EVEN IN THE MARKET OF BHOPAL ON THE OCCASION OF PUSHYA NAKSHTRA RECENTLY WITH THE DEALERS REPORTING A WHOPPING 25-30 PERCENT JUMP IN THE SALE OF GOLD ORNAMENTS.

HSBC analyst James Steel mentioned in a note. Another leading international agency Goldman Sachs too has issued its forecast estimating that gold prices in the global market will fall sharply to $1,270 by the end of 2014. Quite clearly, there are other experts and economists who have been extremely scathing in their comments on the pricing trend possibilities. A leading columnist recently maintained that the gold party is over and almost urged Indian housewives to give up their obsession for the metal. “The Indian price reached a peak of Rs 33,000 per 10gm in late 2011. It has since fallen steadily to just Rs 29,000.

Global trends suggest we have entered an era of falling or stagnant gold prices. Housewives and all other buyers beware: gold will probably be a lousy investment in the next decade,” he underlined in his piece published in a national daily. There are examples from the recent past that exemplifies that gold prices in the international market remained stagnant for two decades – in the 1980’s and 1990’s at around $250/ounce – after skyrocketing to over $800/ounce from a mere $35 during the course of the 1970s.A nd there are strong trappings to suggest that there probably won’t be any factors in the international market in the coming years to send the gold prices soaring again. Cyprus, for instance, is planning to sell its gold reserves to raise 400 million Euros to come out of its fiscal troubles and what if other troubled countries in the Eurozone take the same route? It could well create a glut where supply would outpace demand quite significantly. Furthermore, the US economy is showing signs of bouncing back. So the focus as in a normal situation would be more on equity than on bullion. It’s no secret to anybody that even the government wants the Indian obsession for gold to subside a bit since its imports have a direct bearing on the current account deficit (gold imports in the first ten months of the last fiscal is estimated to be over $40 billion). And that is why the import duty on gold was raised this year though its impact is yet to become visible. There is another line of thought which strongly argues why gold no longer deserves to hold its prized position as an investment instrument. In the past thirty years, Indian investors have not faced the brunt of a crash or stagnation in gold prices thanks to the almost seven times depreciated value of the rupee. But now having reached the over 50 mark against the greenback, a further rapid depreciation does not seem to be possible. And this could be an additional deterrent in reviving the value of gold stocks. These are no doubt strong arguments why there needs to be some dilution in gold’s status as a safe bet in the minds of the Indian buyers. But does hard logic always work against long held beliefs and strong sentimental appeal which has existed for centuries? 1-15 May 2013 india debates

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IMAGES OF THE FORTNIGHT

REMEMBERING THE OLD DAYS. President Pranab Mukherjee with his former cabinet colleagues at a reception hosted on the occasion of Civil Services Day.

THE PLEDGE OF THE YOUTH. Bhartiya Janta Yuva Morcha National President Anurag Thakur waving to supporters during Sankalp Karyakram at Party Head Quarter.

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LONG ROAD AHEAD. Pushpa Kamal Dah along with Ambassador Shyam Saran,Cha Secretary of India and DG, ICWA, Ambas Sapru House Lecture on â&#x20AC;&#x153;India-Nepal Rela

CONTEMPLATING THE BIG STRATEGY. BJP National president, Rajnath Singh, with party leaders L.K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Janta Dal(U) President, Sharad Yadav during a recent NDA meeting.

hal ‘Prachanda’, former Nepal PM airman, NSAB, Former Foreign ssador Rajiv K. Bhatia after delivering ations: Vision for the next Decade.”

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EMULATING THE MAHATMA. Gursharan Kaur, wife of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, tries her hands at a spinning wheel after inaugurating an exhibition ‘Phulkari at Indira Gandhi National Center for the Arts.

CONTROVERSIAL GESTURE? Punjab CM, Parkash Singh Badal and Dy. CM Sukhbir Singh Badal called on President Pranab Mukherjee seeking clemency for death row convict Devinder Pal Singh Bhullar.

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IMAGES OF THE FORTNIGHT

SHARING A SMILE. Nana Gajanan Patekar and Dimple Kapdia on the side lines of Padma Awards ceremony.

I OWE IT TO YOU. Bollywood actor Vidyut Jamwal with his mother during the unveiling of P&G ‘Thank You Mom’ Nielsen survey results.

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‘VIOLENCE NO MORE’ CAMPAIGN. Some noted artists and civil society members came together recently in Delhi to protest against rising incidents of rapes. Actress Shabana Azmi and singer Usha Uthup asked the participants to register opposition to death penalty through poetry, discussion and songs.

THE GREEN FLIGHT. Heart Care Foundation and World Fellowship of Religions in association with Ministry of Earth Sciences and Delhi Public School observed World Earth Day on the theme ‘Future Earth’.

THE COOL OFFERING. Bollywood actress Priyanka Chopra poses with the new range of Nikon’s Coolpix camera.

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Date of Publication: 1/05/2013

RNI No. DELENG/2013/48250. Posting Date 1-6/05/2013 DL(C)-01/1358/2013-2015

IMAGES OF THE FORTNIGHT

THE MASTER AND THE MINISTER. Manish Tiwari, Union Information and Broadcasting along with film director Ramesh Sippy (of Sholay fame) during the inauguration of the “Indian Cinema 100” Exhibition to mark the commencement of the week long – Centenary Film Festival at Siri Fort Auditorium.

india debates 1-15 May 2013