ELECTORAL ALGEBRA

Christian Times Magazine issue 64| Monthly Magazine Electoral Algebra

By Chris Grahn Howard

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The 2022 mid-term elections are soon upon us. While many expect a solid red wave, I would warn you that the Democrats will be motivated to slow that wave. To be honest, they have laid the groundwork to that end. If you are reading this and are hoping for that red wave…you have work to do. It is not just going to happen. Believe it or not, elections are a basic math equation. X is the number of votes you need to win or 50% +1. There are many parts to finding X. This will be the highlights for this point in the cycle, not a detailed examination of those factors. To make the red wave happen, to take both the House and the Senate, we need to make the turnout happen. Participate in the local GOTV or Get Out the Vote efforts. Knowing some basics will help you help your candidate win. I will end with some potential sobering predictions. Hint, it may not be good news. At this point, the yard signs are designed, the platform articulated, and the messaging is set. All you can do now is turn out the votes. Stay focused on the messaging, ensuring the signs are out, and talking to your friends. Much of the process has been decided. Now the plan has to play out. Unless you are directly involved in the campaign, your job is to reach voters and get them to show up. You have to hope that your chosen candidates have done the

Christian Times Magazine issue 64| Monthly Magazine research and know where to target, how many votes they need, what messaging point resonates, and have recruited volunteers to assist with yard signs, DtD efforts, calling voters, and other election day activities.

Know your district. Is your district competitive? How competitive? If your district is competitive, turnout is paramount. Breaking it down to the precinct level. Let us say your precinct is a 53% GOP district. This precinct usually wins for the GOP. However, the district is a 52% Dem seat. Winning your precinct by 55% is not enough. To cover the Dem advantage in the district, you will need a 65-70% GOP turnout in your precinct. Too often, these GOP precincts or townships claim victory because they won their township/precinct/whatever.

However, in order to win on the macro level, one must have higher margins than just a win; the goal isn’t just to win your precinct or township. “Touching” voters. Most political campaign consultants will tell you that to truly reach a voter and have them turn out. The candidate’s campaign must “touch” a voter three times. Touch is a call, door-to-door interaction, some sort of personal interaction. A half touch is a mailing, call that left a message, or yard sign views. You get the idea. Nothing beats a personal interaction with the candidate or even a passionate supporter. Yard signs help because people pay attention to who has a yard sign in their neighborhood. It can be considered an endorsement to the neighbors. 72-hour programs – The last 72 hours are critical to ensure your voters are turning out to vote. Life happens, and people get distracted easily. You must stay in contact as best you can to ensure your people show up at the polls. Many campaigns and state parties have apps for tech-savvy phone users to assist in these efforts. Even if you are not an

app user. You can still call and text your friends. Using your own social media platforms to promote your candidates is frequently as good as a yard sign. While we are about a month out from the election, the time is now to prepare for this election cycle’s last week. Contact the campaigns to see how you can help; there will always be something you can do. There is no sitting this one out. If you are concerned about the economy, our schools, more significant threats of

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Christian Times Magazine issue 64| Monthly Magazine expansion of the war, and just holding the Dems in check, you must get engaged. Predictions – While a massive red wave seemed inevitable four months ago. It is a bit less likely now. The US Senate was considered a sure pick-up for the GOP. Now…some models have an 80% (various sources)chance of Democrats gaining seats and having a 54-seat majority.

The Dobbs/abortion decision has dramatically impacted this potential outcome. In some cases, we have elected candidates that are too conservative for the state they are running in. Please remember that in most elections, between 12 and 24% of the electorate decide the outcome. They are the moderates, independents, and undecided voters. Subscribe to continuously support the most conservative candidate that can win, which is very different than supporting the most conservative candidate. Remember this, a moderate republican will still be better than a moderate democrat. Always. As conservatives, we need control of the Senate. Despite many gerrymandering efforts by democrats, there is an 80+% chance that republicans can take control of the House. This is in part to the number of democrat potential incumbents that decided not to run for re-election. Part of this swing is due to the proximity to voters. House seats are more affected by the economy and local impacts of national policy. In these cases, the democrats have real issues. The economy and inflation reign supreme. “It’s the economy stupid” remains true in many house races.

The simple truth is this. Nothing has been decided yet. You can make a difference. Find a way to get involved in a campaign or with your local party committee. We can take both the House and Senate; it can be done. We just need to be motivated to drive the votes, make the calls, send the texts, and give the money. Put out the yard sign. Talk with your friends. Do not get distracted from what matters most. We all have lives to lead, things to do, and families to care for. However, taking care to have a better chance at a better future requires your participation in this and every election. Please take the time and make it happen.

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