) T S ( N I AGA G N I T N U H L O O C Marco Pedroni ModaCult | UniversitĂ Cattolica di Milano about.me/marcopedroni
AGAIN The ÂŤeternal recurrenceÂť of coolhunting (also known as trendwatching, trendspotting, cult searching and so on)
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
AGAINST Does it exist as a profession? Is it useful? Does it have dangerous consequences?
Again(st) Coolhunting
2
Definition The term «coolhunting» indicates a research approach that reached its height during the 1990s.
Observations were marked with particular frequency in certain parts of the population (mostly youth) with techniques in line with anthropology and qualitative sociology, in which the quantitative approach of market studies leaves in place an ethnographic observation driven by the researcher’s ‘intuition’. CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
It broke traditional marketing schemes in its attempt to better understand the world of consumption through the researcher’s immersion in daily occurrences.
Again(st) Coolhunting
3
Definition/2 The coolhunter’s professional activity - researching emerging trends through observation while out and about - was interpreted as signalling the changing rules of how style and fashion is diseminated. That is, a shift occurred from the trickle-down model (from the social Êlite to the consumer masses) towards the other end, trickle-up, where youth, subcultures, and effervescent areas would produce, from the basics, style innovation that spread through to the highest social classes.
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
4
A critical approach
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/cool/view/ CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
5
Stereotypes of coolhunters Hagiographic account
Coolhunter as young globetrotter with digital camera and «innate» curiosity
vs.
Apocalyptic account
Coolhunter as «legal stalker of youth culture» (N. Klein)
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
6
Trends and coolness trends Aim of the research activity (ÂŤhuntÂť): finding
coolness
But are trends and coolness the same thing? CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
7
Trends
performance over time of a phenomenon (economics) BANK MORTGAGE
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
direction of a curve (statistics)
trend general ÂŤfeelingÂť (common sense)
Again(st) Coolhunting
8
Trends IN FASHION
Line/cut/design
trend
Colour Shape
ENDOGENOUS TRENDS
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
9
Miranda Priestly. Where are the belts for this dre- Why is no one ready? Lucia. Here. It's a tough call. They're so different. Hmm. Miranda Priestly. Something funny? Andy Sachs. No. No, no. Nothing's- You know, it's just that both those belts look exactly the same to me. Miranda Priestly. You know, I'm still learning about this stuff and, uh- "This... stuff"? You think this has nothing to do with you. You go to your closet and you select. I don't know- that lumpy blue sweater, for instance because you're trying to tell the world that you take yourself too seriously to care about what you put on your back. But what you don't know is that that sweater is not just blue. It's not turquoise. It's not lapis. It's actually cerulean. And you're also blithely unaware of the fact that in 2002, Oscar de la Renta did a collection of cerulean gowns. And then I think it was Yves Saint Laurent wasn't it- who showed cerulean military jackets? I think we need a jacket here. And then cerulean quickly showed up in the collections of eight different designers. And then it, uh, filtered down through the department stores and then trickled on down into some tragic Casual Corner and then trickled on down into some tragic Casual Corner where you, no doubt, fished it out of some clearance bin. However, that blue represents millions of dollars and countless jobs and it's sort of comical how you think that you've made a choice that exempts you from the fashion industry when, in fact you're wearing a sweater that was selected for you by the people in this room from a pile of stuff. So then I said, "No, I couldn't see the difference between the two absolutely identical belts" and you should have seen the look she gave me!
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
10
Trends: 3 main features
Forecast of something that is coming to light
Process of change
trend
Observable phenomenon CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
11
Intensity and duration of a trend Mega trends
Fads Superficial changes in tastes without effects on the whole society (nor relation with it). Quick, ephemeral E.g. dominant colour of the season
trend
Cultural, economical, political changes with effects on the whole society. Slow; lasting influence E.g. Increasing power of women; environmentalism
Cool mentalities Recognisable through an analysis of non-superficial social behaviours
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
12
How fashion trends have changes over the XX century SIMPLICITY
DECORATION
Vejlgaard 2008 CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
13
How trends spread
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
14
Coolness what does it mean?
http://www.gladwell.com/1997/1997_03_17_a_cool.htm CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
15
The three rules of coolness ÂŤThe quicker the chase, the quicker the flight. The act of discovering what's cool is what causes cool to move on, which explains the triumphant circularity of coolhuntingÂť
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
16
The three rules of coolness ÂŤA company can intervene in the cool cycle. It can put its shoes on really cool celebrities and on fashion runways and on MTV. It can accelerate the transition from the innovator to the early adopter and on to the early majority. But it can't just manufacture cool out of thin airÂť.
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
17
The three rules of coolness You have to be cool to know and recognize coolness. ÂŤCool can only be observed by those who are themselves coolÂť
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
18
Coolness calm controlled fresh
(temperature)
o co
u m l
excellent superla3ve
coolness young
in the know
( is c
)
z z a j
subcu
fun
ltures
> coolness is a property of the people (not a feature of the objects) CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
19
Coolness
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5z0Ia5jDt4
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=w70NOF5O3UQ&list=PLBFF9CD893BB8FB44
Again(st) Coolhunting
20
Coolness
Cool: Attractive and inspiring with a future growth potential (C. Rohde - Science of the Time)
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
21
Historical overview/1 •
The need of analyzing trends emerges in the 60s with the birth of the «prêt-àporter»; industrial production of apparel begins to develop his own products, giving up the imitation of haure couture
•
Paris loses his leadership in the fashion system: also Milan, London, New York, Tokyo etc. become relevant centres in the process of trends creation > MULTICENTERED FASHION SYSTEM
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
22
Historical overview/2
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
•
The baby-boom generation and the role of young people and subcultures as protagonists of the style change the rule of trends circulation: from top-down to bottomup
•
Higher competition in the fashion industry: more competitors, expert consumers > To be more competitive, fashion producers need to know in advance the emergent trends > FASHION FORECASTING
•
Diffusion of cahiers de tendances / trendbooks as source of inspiration for designers
Again(st) Coolhunting
23
Historical overview/3 •
Coolhunting is an evolution of the fashion forecasting
•
The focus is on SOCIO-CULTURAL TRENDS (exogenous trends)
•
Keywords are not shape, cut, colours etc., but LIFESTYLE and MINDSTYLE > search for expressions of a cool mentality / cool way of life
•
Focus: all the production and consumpion fields, not only fashion
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
24
The coolhunting process Professional activity of observation and analysis of any expressive signal (noticeable in consumers’ behaviour) with the purpose of creating reports for commercial buyers who are looking for new ideas (in order to develop new communication strategies or new products)
Observation Data collection
Brief
BUYER + RESEARCH AGENCY (OR COOLHUNTER FREE-LANCE)
CTWF 2013
LOCAL OBSERVERS (COOLHUNTERS)
Marco Pedroni
Data analysis
TREND ANALYSTS (RESEARCH AGENCY)
Again(st) Coolhunting
Report
BUYER
25
Many examples of coolnees (picture+description+interpretation)
Mentality trend
Thousands pictures of bikes and cyclist in the urban environment
Urban tribes of cyclists
(empirically based tale about an emerging mindstyle)
Value
Which kind of products/stores better satisfy what these consumers need?
(how to use this information for communication/product/retail strategies?)
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
26
Who do the hunt? Marke3ng research agencies Coolhunters Cult searchers Trend analysts
Fashion system
Bureau de style, Trendbook editors, Designers, Stylists Buyers etc.
Free-‐lances
All the professionals whose work is about observing: architects, sociologists, anthropologists, journalists, designers etc. CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
27
Case histories Science of the Time is a virtual network of market and trend researchers worldwide. We distinguish ourselves in five ways: 1. We are more academic than the rest. We have solid links with several universities worldwide and therefore read all the relevant books. Or we let PHD students research them for us. 2. We are more empirical than the rest. Of course, we surf the Net as all trend watchers, cool hunters and researchers do – and we love it. But we cherish the REAL relationships we have with the best of our trend watchers and cool hunters. We speak with them, train and educate them in our trends and methodologies..Â
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
28
Case histories Future Concept Lab Future Concept Lab is a research Institute that stands out on the international landscape as one of the most advanced research centres specialized in marketing issues and trends in consumption. With extensive research activities in Europe, North America, South America and Asia, Future Concept lab was born as a global project. It is headquartered in Milan, and in January 2011 opened a new office in São Paulo (Brazil). Future Concept Lab has correspondents in twenty-five countries around the world, a reality present on a virtual platform: the Genius Loci Lab. The goal of Future Concept Lab is to develop and share new concepts regarding products, communication and distribution in order to enable clients to effectively deal with both the advanced and emerging markets, working in terms of the key words of the future. The Institute carries out integrated research projects based on specific methodologies that lead to the definition of sector-related scenarios, offers consultancy and training services, publishes works that represent the Institute’s main activities, internationally and internally, like for instance the most recent book Consum-Authors.
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
29
http://trendwatching.com/tips/
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
30
Desk analysis Define your keywords and explore: Internet
Databases
Blogs
Social networks
Newspapers
Books and articles Magazines CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
31
Field analysis (Future Concept Lab 2007)
People
Places
Social innovators Trendse0ers: young people, designers, ar3sts, riches, homosexuals, celebri3es, style-‐conscious subcultures (Vejlgaard 2008) Members of the crea6ve class (Florida 2002) with high level of cultural, social and economic capital
4P
Projects Cultural signals in art, cinema, books, fashion, design etc. Cultural products and their field of diffusion
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Where trendseRers meet each other Events, crea3ve areas, mul3ethnic metropolis «Street» Bars, restaurants, pubs, shops, stores Museums, concerts, cultural and ar3s3c events
Thoughts (pensieri) What happens where people produce ideas: universi3es, research centres, centres of crea3on and diffusion of art and culture Areas or ci3es involved in projects of urban regenera3on Again(st) Coolhunting
32
Writing a report
image (Science of the Time)
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
why it’s interes3ng
descrip3on What it Is: The Adidas Exclusive store I spotted in Stockholm, sells gear they sell nowhere else in the world. Exclusive Adidas exclusive for you. Also on show here the collection they designed together with Diesel. Including 10 ways to waste your time. When you buy these exclusive shoes you’ll get an Adidas cd with it. And a hip lady will help you to get into your exclusive Adidas. Why it's cool: So many trends cleverly combined together. Exclusivity for you. Exclusivity in the here and now. Brands joining their strength to give you an extra intense experience. That’s how Adidas and Diesel do this. Science of the Time’s Interpretation: Here the cool mentality trend ‘We Want it more Special’ meets cool mentality trend ‘The inevitable Rise of Experience Economy’ (brand coalitions!) meets ‘Secrecy, please’ in that sense that only the Stockholm incrowd knows.
int
erp ret a3
Again(st) Coolhunting
33
on
Reading list/1 Pedroni M. (2012), From Fashion Forecasting to Coolhunting: Prevision Models in Fashion and in Cultural Production, in Fashion Capital: Style Economies, Sites and Cultures, edited by J. Berry, IdNet, Oxford, pp. 112-129 (English) Pedroni M. (2010), Coolhunting. Genesi di una pratica professionale eretica, F. Angeli, Milano (Italian) http://marcopedroni.wordpress.com/coolhunting
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
34
Reading list/2 Future Concept Lab (2007) (a cura di), Real Fashion Trends. Il manuale del cool hunter, Scheiwiller, Milano. Gibson W. (2004), L’accademia dei sogni, Milano, Mondadori; ed. orig. Pattern Recognition, Berkeley Publishing Group, New York 2003 Gladwell M. (1997), The Coolhunt, in «The New Yorker», March 17, www.gladwell.com/ 1997/1997_03_17_a_cool.htm Vejlgaard H. (2008), Trend. Capire oggi ciò che farà tendenza domani, Etas, Milano; ed. orig. Anatomy of a Trend, McGraw-Hill, New York 2008.
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting
35
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
marco.pedroni @ unicatt.it @marcopedroni marcopedroni.wordpress.com
CTWF 2013
Marco Pedroni
Again(st) Coolhunting