GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
Poles Apart From a national perspective, Canada’s housing market appears to have a remarkably steady hand on the tiller. Home sales have cooled modestly since the spring alongside worsening affordability and a tightening in macro-prudential rules, including increased downpayment requirements on homes priced over $500,000 (effective February 2016) and stricter lending criteria for insured mortgages (effective October 2016). Overall, however, housing demand remains well supported by low interest rates and solid population growth. MLS resale transactions in September were 6% below April’s record high, but still 13% above their 10-year average.
CONTACTS Adrienne Warren 416.866.4315 Scotiabank Economics adrienne.warren@scotiabank.com
At the more localized level, however, activity is becoming increasingly disparate: Vancouver home sales have tumbled 40% since February, and are trending below their decade average. A severe lack of affordability compounded by recent policy changes has curtailed both domestic and foreign purchases, most notably for single-family homes. In addition to the national measures outlined above, the B.C. government has imposed a luxury tax on property sales over $2 million (effective February 2016) and a 15% tax on sales to foreign buyers in Metro Vancouver (effective August 2016). Benchmark home prices in October were up a staggering 25% y/y, but have begun to soften on a m/m basis. We expect Vancouver home prices could face further downward pressure in the year ahead, with overall market conditions moving back into balance amid the sharp drop in sales. Meanwhile, the Greater Toronto Area is setting consecutive monthly sales records. Price appreciation continues to accelerate amid strong demand and a dearth of listings. Benchmark home prices were up 20% y/y in October, while average prices are showing their biggest gains since the late 1980s. With singlefamily homes in the GTA out of reach for many first-time buyers, the strong momentum is sales and pricing has spread to the condominium market as well as to more affordable surrounding communities such as Hamilton, Kitchener and Guelph. Given increasingly stretched affordability, we expect the latest tightening in mortgage qualifying rules will lead to a cooling in GTA housing demand over the coming year. At the same time, severely constrained supply — the ratio of sales to new listings climbed to a seven-year high in September — will likely keep upward pressure on prices in the near term. Calgary home sales are stabilizing at lower levels, while benchmark prices are posting modest single-digit declines amid ample supply. While the region’s better affordability suggest it will be less impacted by the new mortgage rules than Vancouver or Toronto, weak labour market conditions and softening demographics will continue to suppress housing demand. The City of Calgary reported a net outmigration of residents in the 12 months to April. A stable pool of listings suggests the risk of a significant price correction is low. However, several segments are more vulnerable to oversupply, including the condominium market and the rental market. Elsewhere, the vast majority of local markets are showing a fairly stable trend in sales in line with historical norms, and moderate price increases, consistent with balanced market conditions. Initial estimates from the Department of Finance
National MLS Home Sales 600 000s, annualized 550 500 450
10-year average
400 350 300 250 04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics.
MLS Home Sales 180 index January 2014 = 100 160
B.C.
140
Ontario
120 Rest of Canada
100 80
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador
60 2014
2015
2016
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics
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GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
suggest that the latest changes to mortgage qualifying rules could result in an 8% decline in national home sales over the coming year. First-time homebuyers, and those in higherpriced markets, are likely to be most affected. This in turn could boost demand for rental units, exacerbating rental affordability challenges in tight markets such as Toronto and Vancouver with historically low vacancy rates.
Mortgage Debt-Service Ratio
8
% of PDI
Principal and interest
7
6
Domestic housing market fundamentals are generally still positive. Affordability is a growing concern in a few high-priced areas, but remains reasonably healthy in most local markets. Mortgage debt-servicing costs are in line with historical averages, thanks to record low interest rates. While the potential for higher interest rates could put upward pressure on debt-servicing costs, mitigating factors include the likelihood that borrowing costs will move up only gradually from current lows, the ability of some mortgage holders to extend their original amortization period, and the fixed-rate nature of the majority of outstanding mortgages. Demographic trends also remain favourable of housing demand. The number of Canadians in their prime homebuying years is projected to continue to grow through the end of the decade, though at a slower pace than in recent years. Meanwhile, the number of immigrants arriving to Canada is on track to total at least 300,000 in 2016, the highest level in a century. Ottawa recently confirmed it is maintaining its 300,000 immigration target for 2017. New immigrants typically first choose rental accommodation, but eventually have homeownership rates similar to Canadian-born residents. Recent policy measures targeting foreign buyers (i.e. B.C.’s 15% land transfer tax on non-residents and Ottawa’s closing of a loophole that allowed non-residents to claim capital gains exemptions) should help curb speculative investment inflows into the Canadian property market, tempering price gains. The longer-term impact, however, may prove limited. Evidence from other jurisdictions that have imposed new taxes or other measures to stem foreign purchases, including Australia, New Zealand, and the U.K., have not experienced a notable sustained falloff in demand or prices. Canadian real estate will likely remain popular with international investors looking for relative safety of capital and diversification, as well as with new immigrants.
19902015 average
5
4 Interest only
3
2 90 95 00 05 10 15 Source: Statistics Canada,Scotiabank Economics.
International Immigration 350
Number of immigrants to Canada, 000s 2016 / 2017 Target = 300K
300
250
200
150
100 90
95
00
05
10
15
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics
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GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKETS
New Home Inventory
New Home Construction 300
20
y/y % change
000s of units, a.r.
20
000s of units
15
Row & Apartment
15
250
Singles & Semis
10 200
5
10
0 150
New Housing Price Index
Housing Starts
5
-5 -10
100 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
0
16
00
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Existing Home Sales
500
$, 000s
600
000s of units, a.r.
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Existing Home Inventory
3.5
ratio of new listings-to-sales
Unit Sales
400
02
Source: CMHC, Scotiabank Economics.
500
3.0 2.5 Roughly Balanced Market
400
300
2.0
200
300
Average Price
200
100 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
1.5 1.0 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics.
Housing Starts
Canada
B.C.
Alberta
(000s units, sa) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
190 194 215 188 189 196
26 26 27 27 28 31
27 26 33 36 41 37
6 7 10 8 8 5
6 6 7 7 6 6
60 68 77 61 59 70
51 48 47 38 39 38
13 13 13 10 8 8
2016ytd
198
42
24
5
5
76
38
8
2016f 2017f 2018f
195 185 182
43 37 36
23 23 24
5 4 5
5 5 6
75 70 68
37 38 37
7 7 7
(uni ts, nsa) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016ytd
Vancouver 15,217 17,867 19,027 18,696 19,212 20,863 27,706
Calgary 9,262 9,292 12,841 12,584 17,131 13,033 9,055
Edm onton 9,959 9,332 12,837 14,689 13,872 17,050 9,932
Sask.
Toronto 29,195 39,745 48,105 33,547 28,929 42,287 40,434
Manitoba
Ottaw a 6,446 5,794 6,026 6,560 5,762 4,972 5,277
Ontario
Montre al 22,001 22,719 20,591 15,632 18,672 18,744 17,404
Quebec
Halifax 2,390 2,954 2,754 2,439 1,757 2,599 2,269
Atlantic
St. John’s 1,816 1,923 2,153 1,734 1,230 985 821
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Scotiabank Economics calculations and f orecasts. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Visit our web site at scotiabank.com/economics or contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com
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GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKETS Residential Mortgage Rates
12
Household Mortgage Debt Service
8
%
% of disposable income
7
10 8
6
5-Year Conventional
6
5
4
4
Interest only
3
Prime
2
Interest and principal
2
0 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
00
16
02
06
08
10
12
14
16
14
16
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: Bank of Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Residential Mortgage Credit 16
04
Residential Mortgage Arrears 0.7
y/y % change
% of mortgages in arrears three or more months
0.6 12
Residential Mortgages
Mortgage Arrears
0.5 0.4
8
0.3 4 0.2 0.1
0 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
00
16
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CBA, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: Bank of Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Home Sales Canada British Colum bia Alberta Man.-Sask. Ontario Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units
Quebec Avg. Price Units
Atlantic Avg. Price Units
338,814 362,508 363,614 382,980 408,457 443,046
445,610 457,257 452,290 455,409 479,269 505,500
505,178 561,304 514,836 537,414 568,405 636,627
74,640 76,721 67,637 72,936 84,049 102,517
352,301 353,394 363,208 380,969 400,590 393,138
49,723 53,756 60,369 66,080 71,773 56,477
231,833 247,160 261,534 274,401 282,335 283,014
23,978 26,977 27,671 27,213 27,487 26,266
341,667 365,413 385,042 403,788 432,079 465,551
194,420 199,339 195,687 196,394 204,189 223,794
242,257 254,207 264,096 267,646 271,212 275,302
80,025 77,164 77,372 71,194 70,621 74,125
192,319 200,444 208,098 209,612 209,065 208,022
22,391 22,857 23,096 21,156 20,692 21,820
2016ytd 488,362
539,684
697,268
118,673
391,132
51,223
284,277
26,325
519,714
242,149
282,514
77,765
204,336
22,913
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Toronto Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Ottaw a Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units Avg. Price Units 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
675,853 779,730 730,063 767,765 812,653 902,801
2016ytd 1,010,589
Montreal Avg. Price Units
Halifax Avg. Price Units
31,144 32,936 25,445 28,985 33,693 43,145
398,764 402,851 412,315 437,036 460,584 453,814
20,996 22,466 26,634 29,954 33,615 23,994
328,803 325,595 334,318 344,977 362,657 369,536
16,403 16,963 17,641 19,552 19,857 18,227
432,264 466,352 498,973 524,089 566,491 622,046
88,214 91,760 88,157 88,946 93,278 101,846
328,439 344,791 352,610 358,876 363,161 369,477
14,586 14,551 14,497 14,049 14,094 14,842
294,602 309,341 322,148 324,141 331,772 338,072
42,298 40,354 40,086 36,491 35,753 37,935
250,871 258,755 268,692 273,082 273,983 282,612
5,782 5,989 6,081 5,044 4,749 4,840
44,480
459,239
22,024
366,231
16,705
707,329
112,093
367,959
15,599
348,908
39,579
282,694
5,073
Source: CREA, QFREB, Scotiabank Economics calculations. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
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4
GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDSÂ November 14, 2016
U.S. RESIDENTIAL MARKETS Housing Starts
Housing Starts by Region
2.4
1.2 mns of units, a.r.
2.0
mns of units, a.r. South
1.0
Total
1.6
0.8
1.2
West
0.6
Single-Unit
0.8
0.4 Multiple-Unit
0.4 0.0 00
02
04
Midwest
0.2 06
08
10
12
14
Northeast
0.0
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
New Home Sales 1.6 1.4
Average Price
1.2 1.0 0.8
Unit Sales
0.6 0.4 0.2 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
400
8
350
7
300
6
250
5
200
4
150
3
100
2
mns of units, a.r., 3MMA
$, 000s,3MMA
200 150
Singles
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.587 0.609 0.781 0.925 1.003 1.112
0.471 0.431 0.535 0.618 0.648 0.715
2016ytd
1.150
0.768
2016f 2017f 2018f
100
Unit Sales
50 02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Scotiabank Economics.
Housing Starts Total
Permits Midw est
North East
(mi l l i ons of uni ts) 0.116 0.120 0.298 0.178 0.133 0.308 0.245 0.175 0.398 0.307 0.215 0.464 0.355 0.235 0.496 0.397 0.266 0.556
0.098 0.101 0.128 0.150 0.163 0.153
0.072 0.068 0.080 0.097 0.110 0.138
(mi l l i ons of uni ts) 0.605 0.447 0.157 0.624 0.418 0.206 0.830 0.519 0.311 0.991 0.621 0.370 1.052 0.640 0.412 1.183 0.696 0.487
0.382
0.176
0.117
1.152
Multis
300 250
Average Price
00
16
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Â
16
Existing Home Sales $, 000s, 3MMA
mns of units, a.r., 3MMA
14
West
0.276
South
0.581
Total
Single s
0.731
Multis
0.421
1.17 1.30 1.35
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics calculations and f orecasts. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates.
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GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
U.S. RESIDENTIAL MARKETS
Mortgage Rates and Applications
9
%
index
MBA Mortgage Application Index – Purchases Only
8 7
6
8
5
6
4
4
3
2
Housing Costs Consumer Price Index, y/y % change Rent of Primary Residence
6 5
Owners' Equivalent Rent
30-Year Mortgage Rate
4 3 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
2
0
1
-2
16
00
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), FHLMC, Scotiabank Economics.
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Scotiabank Economics.
New and Existing Home Inventories
Apartment Vacancy Rates 16
14 months' supply, 3MMA
%
14
12 10
South
12
Existing
10
8
Midwest
8
6
6
New
4
Northeast
4
West
2
2 00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
00
16
02
04
06
08
Existing Home Sales
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(sa) 4.190 4.260 4.660 5.087 4.935 5.254
Avg Price (nsa) 220.0 214.0 225.4 245.5 255.3 266.4
2016ytd
5.396
273.9
Total
Months’ Supply (nsa) 9.4 8.3 5.9 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.5
10
12
14
16
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors (NAR), Scotiabank Economics.
New Home Sales
South
Midw est
1.080 1.130 1.160 1.188 1.103 1.172
North Avg Price Months’ Total East ($000s) Supply (million units, saar, unless otherwise noted) 1.630 0.910 0.570 0.321 271.5 8.0 1.680 0.910 0.540 0.306 263.4 6.6 1.840 1.070 0.590 0.368 285.4 4.8 2.040 1.201 0.658 0.430 319.3 4.7 2.051 1.136 0.645 0.440 343.2 5.5 2.151 1.240 0.691 0.502 352.5 5.2
1.179
2.211
1.286
West
0.720
0.564
362.8
5.1
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR), U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics calculations. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates.
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6
GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETS International House Prices
(Inflation-adjusted*, y/y % change)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Aus tralia
8.0
-0.3
Canada
9.1
1.7
France
4.9
-1.9
-6.3
2013
2014
2015
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
2.2
8.5
-5.3
-2.1
4.1
-3.2
6.1
0.7
2.1
1.6
6.4
7.4
9.1
6.8
5.4
3.2
4.7
4.8
5.6
3.2
3.6
-2.4
-2.7
-2.1
6.9
-1.5
-1.5
-0.2
0.7
-2.5
0.4
-0.7
-0.6
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.5
Ireland
2.4
-10.6
-15.0
-11.5
-16.0
-13.0
1.6
12.8
10.9
9.1
6.8
7.6
Italy
3.1
-0.7
-1.3
-2.9
-2.0
-5.7
-6.9
-4.6
-2.7
-2.4
-1.9
-1.1
-4.6
2.2
0.4
-0.8
1.3
-1.1
1.6
2.7
1.7
1.6
Germ any
Japan 6.9
-5.3
-6.4
-3.5
-10.5
-16.8
-10.4
0.5
4.1
4.9
4.6
7.0
10.1
-2.3
3.5
6.8
-0.4
0.3
5.5
9.6
13.2
13.7
14.1
11.7
Spain Sw ede n Sw itzerland
1.5
0.9
6.2
4.2
4.2
5.2
4.2
1.8
3.1
3.0
3.4
2.2
United Kingdom
7.4
-7.8
-10.8
2.3
-5.7
-2.3
0.0
6.5
5.9
5.3
6.4
7.5
United States
-8.1
-16.8
-9.9
-2.4
-6.5
2.6
9.5
5.4
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.8
Rus sia
32.7
9.1
-10.9
1.3
-27.0
9.5
-2.7
-6.0
-12.3
-13.4
-15.4
-13.1
Brazil
13.3
15.9
19.3
18.9
11.8
6.5
3.2
-1.2
-11.5
-13.1
-15.7
-17.2
2.6
-8.9
1.5
6.0
2.0
2.5
6.3
1.7
Chile
11.6
9.5
4.9
5.5
4.0
7.6
7.6
5.0
5.3
5.0
7.6
6.9
3.5
-0.5
0.1
-0.3
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.4
3.8
5.5
4.4
5.2
Peru
2.3
20.7
14.0
9.3
13.2
17.5
13.7
9.2
2.6
4.0
4.8
China
1.9
0.2
1.9
India Indone sia South Korea
1.1
4.4
Me xico
Colom bia
16Q2
5.4
-1.2
-3.2
3.2
0.6
-5.2
-4.8
-1.8
0.0
8.5
11.3
15.5
7.8
7.8
8.3
8.8
4.2
0.0 -0.2
3.1
-4.2
-7.7
-2.7
-2.2
-0.7
0.6
5.3
0.6
-0.8
-1.5
-0.2
6.3
-0.6
-2.5
-0.5
1.2
0.7
-1.7
0.2
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.1
6.1
-0.5
0.5
0.3
5.5
3.8
3.5
1.7
2.0
0.4
4.6
Thailand
* No minal ho use prices deflated by natio nal co nsumer price indices. So urce: B IS, Sco tiabank Eco no mics.
350 300 250
350 Real House Prices, 1996=100
300
Sweden
250
U.K.
200
200
150
150
100
Canada United States
50
0
0 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: BIS, OECD, Scotiabank Economics.
12
14
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: BIS, OECD, Scotiabank Economics.
12
14
350
350
250
Australia
100
Switzerland
50
300
Real House Prices, 1996=100
Real House Prices, 1996=100 Ireland
300 France
250
200
200
150
150
100
Spain
50
0
0 12
14
Italy Germany
100
50 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: BIS, OECD, Scotiabank Economics.
Real House Prices, 1996=100
Japan 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: BIS, OECD, Scotiabank Economics.
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12
14
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GLOBAL ECONOMICS | GLOBAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS November 14, 2016
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