Pasa demographicupdate wcad

Waller I.S.D. Demographic Update May 7, 2015

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Past Growth Rates 6,250

5.77%

Enrollment

3.29% 5,750

5,250

3.06% 3.5% 0.81% 1.75% 1.24% 0.52% 2.35%

1.83%

4,750 2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Square Miles in Waller I.S.D.

Percent Change in Student Enrollment Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS) Fall 2013 th 4 Week to Survey, 2010-11 Fall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrollment estimates)

Percent Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS) 2009 4th Fall Week Survey, to 2010-11 Fall 2014

(pre-PEIMS enrollment estimates)

Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births

Unique Demographic Characteristics Waller I.S.D. • Fairly low KN proportion out of total enrollment – 7.8% in Fall, 2014 (was a higher proportion in last two school years) • Commute time to work: 35.5 minutes for Waller I.S.D. relative to 29.1 for Houston Metro Area – and 31.9 for Cy-Fair I.S.D. • Economically Disadvantaged population (64.2%) – [relative to 59.8% for State] – W.I.S.D. will change dramatically in 5 years • High STAAR passage rate (77.8%) --- based on PASA’s assessment for grades 3-8 Level II & III (Spring 2014) – [relative to 71.8% for State] • Education of adults ages 25+ -- 16% have bachelor’s degree (relative to 31% in Houston Metro Area & 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D.) • High median income level ($61,223) – [relative to $57,366 in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro Area]

Private Schools Current Enrollment

Projected Enrollment in 5 Years

Grades Current From WISD Enrollment From WISD Enrollment in KN+ in 5 yrs. in KN+

Epiphany Lutheran School

toddler-8th

185

0

300

0

My Private School (formerly Mackel Private School)

PK-3rd

58

0

65

0

PK3-8th

45

26

250

142

Waller Christian Academy

Total

26 % of WISD residents in 0.45% private schools:

142

2.11%

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Top Employers Within Waller I.S.D. Company

Service/Product

Prairie View A&M University Waller ISD Public Schools Buc-ees Travel Center Cameron Surface Systems Subsidiary of Cameron Ravago Recycled plastic products Flochem Pipeline additives products Retail grocery Harlan's Grocery Green Span Profiles Insulated roof/wall panels for metal buildings Engines, Compressor, & Accessories Large mounted compressors PetroQuip Machine shop Picco Coatings Manufacturing RP Tools Machine shop Municipal government City of Waller Alpha Foods Co Frozen foods processor and packager Premium Coil Oil and gas supplies Florida Chemicals Blends industrial cleaning supplies Whitestar Chemicals Drilling pumps LQC Pipe Pipe yard

Employees 1,426 600 ~150 65 65 65 55 50 45 42 ~40 ~40 30 30 ~30 24 14 ~12

Annual Employment Trends December 2013 City of Houston Employment

June 2014

December 6‐Month Annual 2014 Pct. Change Pct. Change

991,811 1,008,388 1,027,955 5.5 5.5 4.1

1.94%

3.64%

2,028,591 2,062,498 2,102,517 Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.4 4.1

1.94%

3.64%

1.94%

3.64%

Unemployment Rate

Harris County Employment

Waller County Employment Unemployment Rate

19,516 5.1

19,842 5.7

20,227 3.8

Waller I.S.D. Employment Trends Employment Growth and Critical Employment Centers Both Act

as Local Population Growth Stimuli  Waller’s biggest employer, Prairie View A&M, has ~1,055 full‐time equivalent faculty and 371 FTE’s who are instructors/research/staff – and has added University View Campus apartments plus future retail  Apart from public sector, major new manufacturing firms, plus existing firms have additions and renovations underway (the latter totally over $20,000,000) – 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Daikin’s new A.C. manufacturing plant with a central structure of 4 million sq. ft. on 90 ac.

Alegacy Development owns 84.8 ac. for a new CNG compressed natural gas facility ‐‐ and possibly leasing out other spaces – S. on US 290 Tractor Supply Co. – turned in plans for new retail center off FM 2920 PPI Mechanical Testing Services is adding infrastructure on Stokes Rd. Leasing company has taken over Bettis Park to sublet space – S. of Bus. 290 Cameron International is also adding space ‐‐ S. of Bus. 290 Picco coatings is also expanding its plant on Stokes Rd.

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation Trends Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli  Waller I.S.D. has had a challenge in travel times from home to work (at 35.5 minutes one‐way), but the Grand Parkway and the newly greatly widened US 290 will allow for quicker access, incl. the planned Bauer to FM 2920 widening to 6 lanes;  The Grand Parkway , Sec’s F‐1, F‐2, and G ‐‐ to be completed by early 2017 (and some feeder roads completed earlier) – places W.I.S.D. on the cusp of accelerated residential and commercial growth throughout the eastern sector of the District;  Prairie Parkway – may have the private funding in place but needs TexDOT funding for studies, etc. – will have north/south orientation traversing between Penick and Blinka and then northward overlapping Muse Pkwy and Fluminger and westward to FM 1736 near SH 6

Waller I.S.D. Future Transportation Trends Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli  Waller I.S.D. has had a challenge in travel times from home to work (at 35.5 minutes one‐way), but the Grand Parkway and the newly greatly widened US 290 will allow for quicker access, incl. the planned Bauer to FM 2920 widening to 6 lanes;  The Grand Parkway , Sec’s F‐1, F‐2, and G ‐‐ to be completed by early 2017 (and some feeder roads completed earlier) – places W.I.S.D. on the cusp of accelerated residential and commercial growth throughout the eastern sector of the District;  Prairie Parkway – may have the private funding in place but needs TexDOT funding for studies, etc. – will have north/south orientation traversing between Penick and Blinka and then northward overlapping Muse Pkwy and Fluminger and westward to FM 1736 near SH 6

Municipalities in Waller I.S.D.

Utility Districts in Waller I.S.D. (per Waller CAD, Public Utilities Commission, and City of Houston)

Ownership Changes April 2013 through Oct 2014

Parcels >10 ac.

For Sale Nov 2014

Septic Permits by Planning Unit Jan 2013 though Dec 2014

Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Resident Added Students Percent of 2013 to 2014 Students Students Growth in 2013 in 2014 # % Apartments

128

146

18

14%

6%

MHP

412

423

13

3%

5%

Subdivisions built-out

2,257

2,300

43

2%

15%

Subdivisions actively building

1,583

1,797

214

14%

74%

Highest Growth Single-Family Developments Planning Units

16 2C 16 15B, 15C 15B, 15C 10B 7G 8B 16 6E 2C 9 15C 15B

Subdivision Names or Owner(s) Names:

20142024

20142019

20192024

Bridgeland (excl. mixed use & MF)

134

1,520

Woodhaven Estates - up to 4,000 lots

178

695

Stone Creek Ranch

373

440

JM Texas Land Fund - 1,600 ac.

138

649

Lindsey Story parcels

138

658

Bauer Rd. Tract (KOWA Dev.) 598 ac.

269

20

Bauer Landing - 900-950 lots-LGI Homes

247

373

Franz, McAlister, Burmaster tracts

155

384

Richfield Ranch

20

355

Delta Troy Interests

13

185

Mill Creek Ltd.

22

174

Gulf Coast Land Trust

14

145

Gold Star Realty Wallers, Freeman, Hillcroft MediStar parcels - by Parkway

21

113

1,654 873 813 787 796 289 620 539 375 198 196 159 134

7

124

131

1,729

5,835

7,564 10,942

Total (Above-Listed Developments): Total Single-Family Housing Projected :

2,651 8,291

Highest Growth Multi-Family Developments Planning Units

Multi-Family Development Name or Parcel Name:

20142019

20192024

15C 10B 8B 2C 6D 7C

Parcels S. Hwy 290 and Betka Rd.

120

240

Fridkin, Giro, Shamrock Realty parcels

70

200

Titan Land Dev., Hockley, Martin parcels

20

220

Woodhaven Estates Parcels

0

340

Terpstra parcels

70

200

Hegar parcels

0

240

Total (Above-Listed Developments):

280

1,440

Total M ulti-Family Housing Projected :

450

2,090

20142024 360 270 240 340 270 240

1,720 2,540

Projected New Housing Occupancies January 2015 to October 2019

Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2019 to October 2024

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2015 –2024

Year Ending in October:

Single Family

MultiFamily

Total New Housing Units

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

251 343 474 632 951 1,173 1,454 1,747 1,922 1,995

0 3 73 153 221 350 435 435 435 435

251 346 547 785 1,172 1,523 1,889 2,182 2,357 2,430

2015-2019 2,651 2019-2024 8,291 2015-2024 10,942

3,101 450 2,090 10,381 2,540 13,482

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Ratios of Students per Household 2013 2014 Single�Family 0.49 0.52 Homes Apartments 0.41 0.49

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Moderate Growth Scenario Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Enrollment

6,575

6,919

7,279

7,733

8,323

8,983

9,730

10,507

11,296

12,164

% Growth

5.20

5.23

5.20

6.24

7.63

7.93

8.31

7.99

7.50

7.69

Growth

325

344

360

454

590

660

747

778

788

868

Three Scenarios of Growth High Growth 2019 – 8,577 2024 – 13,338

14,000

Moderate Growth 2019 –8,323 2024 – 12,164

12,000 11,000 Students

Enrollment

13,000

Low Growth 2019 – 7,913 2024 – 11,097

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 2010

2014

2019

2024

Population & Survey Analysts W.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

Projected Resident Elementary Students Current Fields Store Students % Utilization Holleman Students % Utilization Jones Students % Utilization Roberts Road Students % Utilization Turlington Students % Utilization

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

(Capacity = 700)

725 734 763 793 816 854 903 961 1,027 1,094 1,167 104% 105% 109% 113% 117% 122% 129% 137% 147% 156% 167% (Capacity = 766)

667 87%

700 91%

719 94%

729 95%

740 97%

758 780 811 846 889 942 99% 102% 106% 110% 116% 123%

(Capacity = 305)

395 408 401 414 421 431 440 449 460 468 478 130% 134% 131% 136% 138% 141% 144% 147% 151% 153% 157% (Capacity = 584)

610 656 723 789 836 916 1,014 1,115 1,230 1,354 1,484 104% 112% 124% 135% 143% 157% 174% 191% 211% 232% 254% (Capacity = 800)

756 95%

804 844 902 941 996 1,056 1,124 1,197 1,275 1,354 101% 106% 113% 118% 125% 132% 141% 150% 159% 169%

Projected Resident EE-5th Grade Students 2014-15 Elementary Attendance Zones

(Geo-Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Projected Resident EE-5th Grade Students Open Elementary #6 in 2017-18(Geo-

Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Projected Resident EE-5th Grade Students Open Elementary #7 in 2020-21(Geo-

Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Projected Resident Junior High Students Current

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Schultz JH (Capacity = 900) Students 687 717 % Utilization 76% 80% Waller JH (Capacity = 900) Students 698 704 % Utilization 78% 78%

760 84%

843 938 1,041 1,130 1,188 1,250 1,334 1,427 94% 104% 116% 126% 132% 139% 148% 159%

760 84%

835 940 1,047 1,142 1,199 1,271 1,365 1,476 93% 104% 116% 127% 133% 141% 152% 164%

Projected Resident 6th-8th Grade Students 2014-15 Junior High Attendance Zones K

N-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Projected Resident 6th-8th Grade Students Open Junior High #3 in 2020-21K

N-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

Projected High School Students Current 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Waller High School (Capacity = 2,200) Students 1,703 1,846 1,944 1,970 2,101 2,284 2,517 2,885 3,225 3,516 3,833 % Utilization 77% 84% 88% 90% 96% 104% 114% 131% 147% 160% 174%

Waller I.S.D. Key Demographic Facts

 3 master‐planned communities will be well underway in 2 years (Bauer Landing – already underway – and Woodhaven and KOWA Development;  3 more MPC’s will be under construction in 6‐7 years – JM Texas Land Fund’s 1,600 ac. S. of US 290; Bridgeland; and the FM 2920 Hopfe Cypress/Franz tracts N. on the Grand Pkwy.

 Next to job stability and job growth, the second major factor predicting housing and population acceleration in a school district is the construction of transportation arterials – such as: US 290’s widening , & the Grand Parkway (f‐1, F‐2 & G) & the Prairie Parkway;  The demographic composition of the W.I.S.D. student population will change if a large no. of new students ‐‐ in new subdivisions ‐‐ become part of the School District; for example, 3 new master‐ planned communities can change the socioeconomic characteristics of a smaller school district, such as Waller, reducing significantly the free/reduced lunch student population & other characteristics.

Long Range Facilities Planning Timeline 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Elem #6 Jones Replacement?

Elem #7 JH #3 HS #2 Ideally, FOUR elementary sites needed as the first four critical Master Planned Communities begin construction and have infrastructure in place.

Waller I.S.D. Demographic Update May 7, 2015