Texas Economy Outlook 2017

Outlook for the Texas Economy

LUIS TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMIST

WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSISTANT

TECHNICAL REPORT

2 0 4 6

J U N E 2 017

TR

Contents About this Report ................................................................................................................................ 3 April 2017 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 4 Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................ 7 Real GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................. 7 Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ................................................................................. 7 Major Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................. 8 Border Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................ 8 Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................................ 9 Financial Activity .................................................................................................................................. 9 30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .............................................................................. 9 Housing .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................. 10 Major Metros Housing Sales .......................................................................................................... 10 Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 11 Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 11 Texas Home Days on Market .......................................................................................................... 12 Energy ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ................................................................................ 12 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................... 13 Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................... 13 Manufacturing Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 13 Services .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Services Sector Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 14 Texas Retail Sector ......................................................................................................................... 14 Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 15 Employment Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 15 Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ...................................................................................... 15 Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................................... 16 Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................... 16 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................... 17

1

Labor Force Participation Rate ....................................................................................................... 17 Manufacturing Employment .......................................................................................................... 18 Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................... 18 Construction Employment ............................................................................................................. 19 Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................................................ 19 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................. 20 Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ..................................................................................... 20 Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................. 21 CPI Inflation Rates .......................................................................................................................... 21 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................... 22 Trade .................................................................................................................................................. 22 Exports (All Commodities) .............................................................................................................. 22 Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................... 23 Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................... 23 Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar ...................................................................................... 24

2

About this Report Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to info@recenter.tamu.edu.

Dr. Luis Torres and Wesley Miller

Data current as of June 2, 2017 Š 2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

3

April 2017 Summary1

The Texas economy advanced amid increased energy activity and a tightening labor market. The number of active rigs reached a two-year high, led by production increases in the Permian Basin. Texas posted the largest monthly employment increase in the nation, led by large gains in education and health services. Employment growth, increased labor force participation, and low levels of initial unemployment insurance claims indicate that the labor market is heating up. Potential headwinds to the Texas economy include trade uncertainty (especially with Mexico), volatile energy prices, and tax policy uncertainty.

The Texas economy appeared stagnant in 2016, with gross domestic product (GDP) inching up only 0.4 percent. However, the contractionary second quarter masked the 3.4 percent fourth quarter expansion—the largest growth of any state. Upswings in residential construction, energy activity, and manufacturing stimulated growth in the Texas economy.

The positive trend in the Texas Business Cycle Index (a measure of current economic activity in the state) suggests that this momentum continued through the first four months of 2017. The index surpassed 4.0 percent year-over-year growth for the first time since September 2015. The major metro Business Cycle Indices indicated similar year-over-year growth throughout the Texas Urban Triangle. Houston posted the largest monthly percentage increase and maintained a steep upward trend, solidifying its recent economic recovery.

The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle) dipped slightly as the price of oil slipped but maintained positive year-over-year growth, primarily from the decline in the Texas value of the dollar. Similarly, the Consumer Confidence Index reflected a favorable, yet adjusted outlook on the future. The index remained historically high but fell 10.0 percent from March, retracting almost all its post-election gains.

Texas housing sales declined 5.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) because of shortages of homes under $200,000. The average number of days on market fell to 55 days, and the months of inventory inched up to 3.8 months. The median sale price was flat for new homes but rose 10.2 percent year-over-year in the existing home market. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)

Interest rates reversed and fell to their lowest point this year amid geopolitical tensions and soft national economic data. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2 percent as investors rushed to secure safer assets. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 30-year fixed-rate fell below 4.1 percent, providing some assistance to housing affordability pressures.

1

All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

4

The average West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price ticked up to $51.06 but was down 6.1 percent after seasonal adjustments. The number of active rigs in Texas rose to a two-year high of 4252 and crude oil production leveled at 3.3 million bpd2,3. The Henry Hub spot price of natural gas rose to $3.10 per million BTU2 (British Thermal Unit), despite saturated inventories. Horizontal drilling technology in the U.S. has contributed to a global natural gas glut. The Energy Information Administration predicts that the U.S. will be a net exporter of natural gas by 2018—the first time in nearly 60 years. Texas remained the largest gas-producing state, accounting for 23.7 percent of national production.

Texas led the nation in monthly nonfarm employment growth, adding 30,400 new jobs, and pushed this year’s net job increase above 110,300. The Dallas Federal Reserve forecasts a 289,300 job increase in 2017. The statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0 percent, and the labor force participation rate surpassed 64 percent for the first time in two years. The unemployment rate varied from 3.6 percent in Austin to 5.7 percent in Houston, but all major metros exhibited a monthly decline.

Moreover, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims in Texas remained at prerecessionary levels, corroborating the health of the Texas labor market.

Job growth was mixed across the Texas Urban Triangle. Houston added 13,700 jobs—its largest monthly increase since 2014—in response to the continued energy sector recovery. San Antonio added 3,800 jobs, pushing this year’s net increase above 6,000. Dallas lost 15,600 jobs, primarily in the professional/business services and leisure/hospitality industries but still led the state in year-over-year job growth at 3.1 percent. Employment dipped by 0.3 percent in Fort Worth, resulting from 3,200 lost jobs but maintained a 5,500 net increase for the year. Austin lost 400 jobs but maintained 3.0 percent year-over-year growth.

Goods-producing sector employment growth slowed but sustained its first-quarter gains. In response to increased energy activity, the mining and logging industry added 3,300 jobs, while manufacturing posted an 8,100 job increase. All of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s labor market indices (employment, wages, hours worked) increased, albeit at slightly decreasing rates. Manufacturers noted production and demand increases and remained optimistic for the next six months. Conversely, the construction industry lost 10,300 jobs, offsetting most of the manufacturing, mining, and logging gains.

After a stagnant first quarter, the service-providing sector added 29,300 jobs and accounted for nearly all of this month’s total employment growth. Education and health services recorded the largest gains with 10,400 jobs added. Professional and business services employment increased by 7,400 jobs, followed by a 6,100 job increase in leisure and hospitality. Job losses occurred only in the information industry, which contracted by 3,500 jobs and fell 4.5 percent year-over-year.

2 3

Non-seasonally adjusted.

Crude oil production data lag this report by one month.

5

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey confirmed increases in employment and work-week length.

The revenue index was positive but fell 3.1 points amid rising input prices. Respondents from educational services to telecommunications commented on the need for deregulation and tax reform.

Additionally, employers responded to labor shortages through wage and benefit increases.

Retailers noted similar concerns in the Texas Retail Outlook, particularly regarding border adjustment tax uncertainty. The retail sales index increased despite rising input costs and falling sales prices. An uptick in retail sales4 and the retail sales index improved retailers’ expectations of future economic conditions.

Real total private employee hourly earnings in Texas jumped 2.4 percent—its largest monthly increase in over a decade—as labor market conditions appeared to tighten. Monthly wage growth occurred in all the major metros, but a stagnant trend persisted in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston. On the other hand, San Antonio remained on its two-year upward trend as wages rose 5.4 percent yearover-year.

Real manufacturing employee hourly earnings were flat in Texas but remained 10.6 percent higher than the national average. Manufacturing wages increased 1.0 percent in Dallas, just below the state level. Fort Worth had the highest wages, paying 65.6 percent and 49.7 percent more than the national and statewide averages, respectively. Manufacturing wage pressure softened in Houston despite large employment gains. Moreover, San Antonio manufacturing wages remained below the state average but continued their upward trend.

After dipping in March, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percent, but the headline year-over-year rate fell to 2.2 percent. Natural gas and electricity prices generated the monthly uptick.

The core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile energy and food sectors, rose marginally at 0.1 percent. The CPI for Houston fell below 2.1 percent, as falling communication and education prices offset utility price inflation. Despite the weak CPI numbers, the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise the federal funds rate in June.

The goods trade deficit widened to $67.6 billion as U.S. commodity exports fell 3.5 percent. Despite a decline in the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar5, Texas commodity and manufacturing exports fell 6.7 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively—their first contractions of the year. Exports fell substantially for chemicals, computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment.

However, the overall health of the North American economy should support a continued upward trend.

4

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas seasonally adjusts Texas nominal retail sales data and the data release typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month. The series is converted into real terms using the Consumer Price Index.

5 The Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar is generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Its release typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

6

Economic Activity

Real GDP Growth (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

7 United States

6

Texas

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100) 145

120

Business Cycle Index

140

115

Leading Index (Right Axis)

135

110

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

75

Jan-15

100

May-14

80 Sep-13

105 Jan-13

85

May-12

110

Sep-11

90

Jan-11

115

May-10

95

Sep-09

120

Jan-09

100

May-08

125

Sep-07

105

Jan-07

130

7

Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 15 10 5 0

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jul-13

Dallas-Plano-Irving Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-15

Jul-07

-10

Jul-10

Austin-Round Rock Fort Worth-Arlington San Antonio

Jul-14

-5

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Border Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter -over- Quarter Percent Change) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-20

Jul-07

-15

Jul-13

Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

8

Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100) 200

Texas

190

United States

180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100

Apr-17

Nov-16

Jun-16

Jan-16

Aug-15

Mar-15

Oct-14

May-14

Dec-13

Jul-13

Feb-13

Sep-12

Apr-12

Nov-11

Jun-11

80

Jan-11

90

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.

Source: Conference Board

Financial Activity

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield (Percent)

7.00

Mortgage

Bond

6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

1.00

Jul-07

2.00

Note: Seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

9

Housing

Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

115

United States

110

Texas

105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-08

Sep-07

55

Jan-07

60

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.

For more information, see Housing Sales.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Major Metros Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100) 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Housing Sales.

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Jan-17

Aug-16

Mar-16

Oct-15

May-15

Dec-14

Jul-14

Feb-14

Sep-13

Apr-13

Nov-12

Jun-12

Jan-12

Aug-11

Mar-11

Oct-10

May-10

Dec-09

Jul-09

Feb-09

Sep-08

Apr-08

Nov-07

Jun-07

Jan-07

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels

10

Months of Inventory (Months)

11 10

United States

9

Texas

8 7 6 5

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

Jan-07

Sep-07

3

May-08

4

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.

For more information, see Months of Inventory.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Major Metros Months of Inventory (Months)

9 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels

8 7 6 5 4 3

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Months of Inventory.

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Jan-17

Aug-16

Mar-16

Oct-15

May-15

Dec-14

Jul-14

Feb-14

Sep-13

Apr-13

Nov-12

Jun-12

Jan-12

Aug-11

Mar-11

Oct-10

May-10

Dec-09

Jul-09

Feb-09

Sep-08

Apr-08

Jan-07

Jun-07

1

Nov-07

2

11

Texas Home Days on Market (Days)

110

Existing Home Days on Market New Home Days on Market

100 90 80 70

Apr-17

Nov-16

Jun-16

Jan-16

Aug-15

Mar-15

Oct-14

May-14

Dec-13

Jul-13

Feb-13

Sep-12

Apr-12

Jun-11

Jan-11

50

Nov-11

60

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes.

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Energy

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count)

(Number of rigs)

(Millions of barrels per day)

1200

4

Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis) Number of Operating Rigs

1000

3.5 3

800

2.5

600

2 1.5

400

1 200

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.

For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count.

Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-08

Sep-07

Jan-07

0

0.5 0

12

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ($)

$/Barrel

140

Crude Oil

$/million BTU

14

Natural Gas (Right Axis)

120

12

Jan-17

Aug-16

Oct-15

Mar-16

May-15

Jul-14

Dec-14

Feb-14

Apr-13

Sep-13

Nov-12

Jan-12

Jun-12

Aug-11

0

Oct-10

0

Mar-11

2

Dec-09

20

May-10

4

Jul-09

40

Feb-09

6

Sep-08

60

Apr-08

8

Jun-07

80

Nov-07

10

Jan-07

100

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.

For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters

Manufacturing

Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index)

30 20 10 0 -10

United States

Texas

-20

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index.

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-40

Jan-07

-30

13

Services

Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index)

50

United States

40

Texas

30 20 10 0

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-20

Jan-07

-10

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index.

Index

Texas Retail Sector (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Year-over-Year

50

Percent 25

40

20

30

15

20

10

10

5

0

0

-10

-5

-20

-10

-30

-15

Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector.

Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

-20 Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Retail Sales (Right Axis)

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-50

Jan-07

-40

Jul-11

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Retail Survey

-25

14

Employment

Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)

6

United States

4

Texas

2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change) 8 6 4 2 0 -2

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-8

Jul-07

-6

Jan-13

-4

Jul-12

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio

15

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

11 United States

10

Texas

9 8 7 6 5

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

3

Jul-07

4

Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major Metros Unemployment Rate (Percent)

9 8 7 6 5

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-12

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

Sep-07

Jan-07

2

May-08

3

Jan-11

4

Sep-11

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land San Antonio

Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

16

Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change) 145

U.S.

125

Texas

105 85 65 45 25 5

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-35

Jul-07

-15

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.

Source: Department of Labor

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent) 67 United States

Texas

66 65 64

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

62

Jul-07

63

17

Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Texas

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 14 10 6 2 -2 -6

Austin-Round Rock

-10

Dallas-Plano-Irving

-14

Fort Worth-Arlington

-18

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land

-22

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-30

Jan-12

San Antonio

-26 Jan-07

United States

Jan-07

6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20

18

Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change) 15 10 5 0 -5

United States

-10

Texas

-15

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-25

Jan-07

-20

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 5

United States

4

Texas

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mar-17

Oct-16

May-16

Dec-15

Jul-15

Feb-15

Sep-14

Apr-14

Nov-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Aug-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

May-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Feb-10

Sep-09

Apr-09

Nov-08

Jun-08

-5

Jan-08

-4

19

Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland Mar-17

Oct-16

May-16

Dec-15

Jul-15

Feb-15

Sep-14

Apr-14

Nov-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Aug-12

Mar-12

Oct-11

May-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Feb-10

Sep-09

Apr-09

Jun-08

Jan-08

Nov-08

San Antonio-New Braunfels

-14

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 25 United States

Texas

20 15 10 5 0

Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-10

Jul-07

-5

20

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 35

Dallas-Plano-Irving

30

Fort Worth-Arlington

25

Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land

20

San Antonio-New Braunfels

15 10 5 0 -5

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-15

Jul-07

-10

Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.

For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic

Prices

CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 6

United States

5

Houston

4 3 2 1 0 -1

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jan-07

-3

Jul-07

-2

21

Feb-17

Aug-16

Nov-16

May-16

Feb-16

Aug-15

Nov-15

May-15

Feb-15

Aug-14

Nov-14

Medical

May-14

Transportation

Feb-14

Housing

Aug-13

Food and Beverages

Nov-13

May-13

Feb-13

May-12

Feb-12

Aug-11

Nov-11

May-11

Feb-11

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

Aug-12

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Nov-12

Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Trade

Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

35 30

United States

25

Texas

20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports.

Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

-25

Jan-07

-20

22

Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

United States Texas

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports.

Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Texas Exports by Country (Percent) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

Netherlands Mexico China Canada Brazil ROW

30 20 10 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Note: For more information, see Exports.

Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

2016

2017

23

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index January 2007 = 100)

120

United States

115

Texas

110 105 100 95 90

Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Jan-17

May-16

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

Sep-07

Jan-07

80

May-08

85

24

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR GARY W. MALER

ADVISORY COMMITTEE DOUG ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN Austin

DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth

MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca ALVIN COLLINS Andrews JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin

BESA MARTIN Boerne TED NELSON Houston C. CLARK WELDER San Antonio BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple

i