7 minute read
Is it Possible to Predict how the Cyber Year 2021 will Unfold?
text: AAPO CEDERBERG
Managing Director and Founder of Cyberwatch Finland Chairman of Cyber Security Committee of World UAV Federation (WUAVF)
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THE EXCEPTIONAL YEAR of 2020 has ended, which has brought various aspects of cyber security into the limelight. The Covid-19 crisis has caused an unprecedented digital leap through teleworking and other new digital services.
In practice, this means creating a new and credible cyber culture. The management of every company and organisation must outline a logical course of action starting with proper cyber situational awareness and a continuous up-to-date cyber risk analysis. The role of senior management is to make timely decisions and allocate sufficient resources to develop people’s ability to adopt new innovative technologies and to embed a cyber security culture in line with company’s security culture and business strategy.
Last year, we witnessed the increase of new variants of cyber operations and the consistent growth of cybercrime. The question arises as to whether this came as a shock? Maybe not, perhaps the alarming developments in the cyber world were not taken seriously. At the beginning of last March, FISC (Finnish Information Security Cluster), for the first time, organised an event where Finnish cyber security companies presented their estimates on cost of future cyber development. Corona, its explosive spread, and its impact on our operating environment were not mentioned in any forecast, however other costs were brought up in one way or another. Were they taken seriously, perhaps not? However, preparing for future cyber threats is a basic condition for the success of all companies especially in the future, as this past year has shown us.
The Cyberwatch Finland team reviews the development of the cyber world through quarterly reviews and by developing foresight with, for example, an artificial intelligence-based cyber engine. Developing foresight however, is made difficult due to global interdependence. Everything is connected and black swans are unavoidable. Global politics influence the direction of cyber operations and the selection of targets, and conversely, successful cyber operations always cause a political crisis. This link is stronger than ever before, and cyber attacks are increasingly used to influence political decision-making. Russia and China have strengthened their capabilities by building their own independent Internets including all applications and are improving their satellite systems. Securing one’s own operating conditions is important if one wants to paralyse the opponent’s operational capacity and at the same time safeguard one’s own financial interests.
Examples of this are the attacks on FireEye and government structures in the United States. The risk of escalation increases when nuclear weapons are targeted, in particular the firing and control systems. Concerns about this development were also expressed by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov. At the same time, he denied that Russia had been behind the cyber operations against the US. This is essentially a cyber world “cat and mouse game”, that is being used to reach the desired results in information influence operations.
The attacks on FireEye demonstrate how cyber companies are becoming an interesting target. It is particularly worrying, that the attack tools developed over the years by white-hat hackers may have fallen into the wrong hands. This reminds us that no one is safe. The long-predicted storm and increase in the volume of attacks on healthcare providers has been a special corona phenomenon, as the importance of healthcare as a supercritical target has only been further emphasised. Adherence to the hybrid principle in ransomware attacks was also an ingenious new innovation, blackmailing money from companies and organisations, but also from victims of data leaks. Some state actors use more and more the services of criminals – the concept crime as a service increasing. The phenomenon of global technology giants being targeted is also on the rise, as they are key components in global interdependence. We received a sample of this when a cyber attack paralysed Google’s services globally; at many remote workstations, operations came to a standstill.
On 16 December 2020, the EU presented a new cyber security strategy.
It was met with high expectations. However, will the goals in regards to leadership, pioneering and independence be met as the strategy continues to follow EU’s diplomatic and governing approach in defining proposals and initiatives in terms of regulation, investment and politics. The three main areas of the strategy are defined as 1.) Resilience, technological sovereignty and leadership. 2.) Developing operational capabilities to prevent, deter and respond to threats. 3.) Promoting a global and open cyber environment through increased cooperation.
The Cyber Security Strategy aims to strengthen the EU’s leadership in international norms and standards in the cyber environment. And to work more closely with partners around the world to promote a global, transparent, stable and secure cyber environment based on the rule of law, human rights, fundamental freedoms and democratic values.
As part of a comprehensive digital security and development package, the EU’s new cyber strategy will remain somewhat ambiguous, leaving many goals to be desired. The need for leadership is acknowledged in the strategy, but practical implication depends on national measures. Cyber regulation is underdeveloped, yet no additional support will be given by the EU, even if it is thought to be part of the EU’s role. It has been emphasised EU’s digital independence, however, this will not be achieved through these measures. In particular, China and the United States are gaining ground as they compete for global leadership.
The most significant part of the strategy is the reform of the Network and Information Security Directive, i.e. the NIS 2 Directive.
Planning and executing cyber operations require information about the activities and vulnerabilities of the targets. The increase in cyber espionage and the information generated from data leaks are utilised in the selection of targets and the development of attack tactics. Government intelligence services make use of key data collected both by themselves and by criminals. Cyber espionage is a continuous activity that requires longterm perseverance. The ability to analyse and combine data is important in increasing the agility of cyber attacks. This data is becoming increasingly valuable on the black market and opens new business opportunities for the cyber criminals. The easiest way to develop cyber security is to prevent cyber espionage by building a better cyber security culture. This is done by improving skills, practices, and technology.
There are always economic interests behind global politics. This was reflected in the 5G discussions last year. Technologically, these are new generation systems that are also of great economic interest. This is a particularly critical area for national security. Cyber espionage and the necessary back doors have become the focus of attention. Digital independence and trust are pivotal. Many countries are questioning the reliability of cyber partners and how much they are willing to pay for digital independence.
Teleworking is not the only matter evoking change.
Urbanisation, the development of smart buildings and homes as well as logistics systems are based on the continuous development of digital systems. At the same time, their vulnerabilities and the risk of cyber attacks increase. The principle of “secure by design” is prominently talked about, but its practical implementation is unfamiliar. In the future, architects, space designers and even condominium management agencies need to understand digital and cyber security and take them into consideration in their work. Cyber security must be comprehensively involved throughout the life cycle of buildings and systems.
Cyber attacks have increasingly evolved into military weapons as well. We have seen cases in the Middle East where traditional attacks have been replaced by cyber attacks. The skilful selection of targets generated a substantial impact and thus achieved the military objectives set for the operation. Many military experts say we are entering an era where an effective defensive cyber defence is no longer enough, and the focus needs to be shifted to developing offensive capabilities.
These developments were predicted a year ago and they will certainly continue next year. Of course, Black swans will occur this year as well. In light of previous predictions, it seems that the playing field will continue to intensify, and targets that will allow one to achieve their desired goals and cause global chaos will be sought out. Satellite systems, and in particular their control and support ecosystem, offer good conditions for this. In order to recover from the corona crisis, economic development is extremely important. Therefore, influencing the various domains of the economy will certainly become a target of cyber operations using newer and smarter techniques. The importance of foresight will increase in the future and new innovative strategic cyber security solutions are needed. The importance of smart cyber security strategies is emphasised.
Competence development and new innovations are essential to provide a good precondition in meeting future challenges.
