The Challenge of Countering Hybrid Threats

// Dr Teija Tiilikainen

Hybrid threats are unconventional threats that challenge the comprehensive security and stability of democratic societies. They take advantage of the values of open and democratic societies by turning them into a major source of insecurity. Forms of hybrid action are not necessarily illegal; they tend rather to operate within a grey area between legal and illegal. Due to their ambiguous and hybrid nature these threats cause great difficulties for their target countries in finding the appropriate measures to fight against them. It is typical of hybrid threats, perpetrators of which are undetectable, to make existing legal or law enforcement mechanisms unusable. Countering hybrid threats is one of the key concerns among democratic states today.

THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

There are several transitions taking place in the current international system. There has been a major shift in the balance of power among states, whilst, simultaneously new types of actors are strengthening their position in international politics. The number of powerful non-state actors, from intergovernmental organisations and multinational companies to terrorist groups and even powerful individuals, is growing immensely. These trends have led to a gradual weakening of the post-war international order, including its norms and institutions and the mutual trust among its actors.

Such an environment of transition and disorder provides a fertile ground for unconventional instruments of power. These ‘hybrid means’ are partly linked to the conflicting values in the current international system and the efforts of non-democratic states to take advantage of vulnerabilities within the political and societal systems of their democratic counterparts. They can be equally linked to the efforts of weaker actors to balance the shortcomings in their power arsenal. This threat environment also nourishes an emergence of unconventional alliances between states and non-state actors in promotion of shared interests.

The unconventional power instruments such as disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, disturbance of critical infrastructure, election interference or even different forms of hybrid warfare are cost-efficient in comparison to the more conventional forms of power politics. They are also much more difficult to attribute, lowering the risks of countermeasures and sanctioning.

COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

Countering hybrid threats forms a challenge for Western actors, be they state actors, the EU or NATO. Firstly, they have to be capable of protecting their societies without compromising their key values. Modern societies’ technological vulnerabilities form another challenge when taking into account the existing interconnectedness of critical infrastructures and possibilities to affect their functioning via cyberspace. A third challenge can be discerned in the vulnerabilities of the rule of law. Many forms of hybrid action take advantage of gaps in the normative frameworks, national or international, or operate within a grey area between what is legal and what is not. This kind of action causes serious problems for democratic governments to take action and protect themselves as both the nature of the attack and the legal basis for necessary countermeasures remain ambiguous.

Cooperation among the democratic states is the key in countering hybrid threats.

Along with their Member States both the EU and NATO have strengthened their policies and preparedness vis-à-vis hybrid threats during the past few years. As complex institutional entities, they share the same vulnerabilities in regards to their functioning and integrity. Furthermore, their tasks and mandates require them to act in support of their Member States in this field.

The EU and NATO have thus consolidated their efforts in responding to hybrid threats and enhancing the resilience of their Member States through different policy instruments, new institutional structures and practices, including better coordination and sharing of good practices. Fields in which both organisations have been active are cyber security and critical infrastructure protection. For the EU’s part, enhancing resilience takes the form of legislative projects and mapping vulnerabilities in major fields of critical infrastructure protection. NATO approaches this issue through its policies on civil preparedness, which has been gaining new momentum recently. Both organisations are focusing on the challenge posed by cyber security, recognising the vulnerabilities of their own functions, and those of their Member States. NATO thus declared cyber defence as a part of its collective defence and recognised cyberspace as a domain of operations in which NATO must defend itself as effectively as in any other domain. Apart from its strengthened legislative measures, the EU has established cyber defence projects within the framework of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and agreed on a foundation for sanctions against cyber attacks constituting a threat to the Union or its Member States.

Countering hybrid threats became one of the topics for the new strategic partnership between the EU and NATO, on which the organisations agreed in 2016. In their Joint Declaration the two actors decided to boost their activity to counter hybrid threats by working together on analysis, prevention, and early detection, through timely information sharing and cooperating on strategic communication and response. As a part of the implementation of the Joint Declaration, EU and NATO encouraged the Member States of both organisations to participate in the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (CoE) established in 2017.

This CoE has currently 29 participating states covering most EU members and the US, Canada, Turkey, Norway and Montenegro of NATO’s non-EU members. The CoE covers a wide range of projects aiming to analyse various forms of hybrid action, make their forms and the strategies of the actors behind them visible and thus enhance the resilience of its participating states. The CoE operates as a network-based organisation; it brings together experts from its participating states to share experiences and good practices. The CoE is an additional key interlocutor, for the key EU and NATO bodies in countering hybrid threats, sharing the outcome of its work to these key bodies. In accordance with its original goal, the CoE provides a joint platform for the two organisations in countering hybrid threats and building resilience.

By raising awareness, deepening co-operation and providing innovative and better suited policy tools the CoE contributes to the protection of Western democracies against hybrid threats.

Teija Tiilikainen is the Director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.

Previously, she was the Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (20102019) and has been the Director of the Network of European Studies at the University of Helsinki (2003-2009).  She has also served as Secretary of State at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland from 2007 to 2008. She was a member of the European Convention in 2002-03 and a member of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project led by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger in 2015-16. In 2018, Dr Tiilikainen was nominated part-time professor (non-residential) at the European University Institute (School of Transnational Governance) in Florence. She is currently the vice-chair of the executive board of the University of Helsinki.