CURRENT SECURITY THREATS CHALLENGE THE POLITICAL LEADERS text: JARNO LIMNÉLL Professor of cybersecurity at Aalto University, CEO at TOSIBOX
Recent conflicts, such as the current escalation between the US and Iran, or the on-going low intensity warfare in Eastern Ukraine, serve as topical examples of the role played by ”cyber” and ”hybrid”, which emerged as buzzwords on security agendas around the world over the last two decades.
H
ybrid threat means combining and synchronizing different means and methods of influencing, and acting in a covert and deniable way, aim both to confuse the adversary, or disrupt their actions without crossing the threshold of war. Such way of engaging adversaries in the so-called gray zone is expected to play an increasingly prominent role in conflict during this decade. It is time to refresh the discussion covering hybrid treats and bring it to a new level in order to succeed in the emerging security environment of the 2020s. FAST PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AFFECTS SECURITY
One of the key challenges in the current security environment plagued by hybrid threats is to keep up the pace with ever accelerating development of technology and the society-wide tide of digitalization. As a megatrend, technology becomes one with everything, turning ubiquitous, and thus calls for strong political attention together with honest evaluation of the security implications of the developments. Looking this challenge from the security perspective, it becomes clear that an ever-greater level of estimation and foresight is needed together with an ability to assess hybrid threats and risks of technology misuse. 14 | CYBERWATCH FINLAND
As a concrete example, if we prepare ourselves in elections meddling by an external hostile party only by taking into account the interference tools and methods that we have witnessed to have been used and those that we have experienced earlier by ourselves, we are doomed to be always one step behind. On the other hand, it is necessary for us, and the decisionmakers, to admit that we will never be able to anticipate all the possible risks and avenues for attack. Hybrid threat environment challenges citizens, business leaders, and political decisionmakers in particular in many new ways. For example, thinking about the concept of deterrence in the current threat space, or pondering proportional response to spread of fake news and or data manipulation targeting critical national information assets, new kinds of ‘red lines’ must be drawn, contingency plans created and political guidance envisioned and established. Thus, it is fair to say that today´s technology related security questions have truly entered the realm of high politics. A GROWING GAP
Unfortunately, despite many threat indicators sounding alarm, there seems to be a growing gap between policymakers and those championing the technological development. Political decision-makers do not quite understand the
