NUCLEAR WEAPONS
By Hamzah Rifaat Hussain PTV World Islamabad, Pakistan
O
n 14 February 2019 in Indian administered Kashmir a suicide bomber drove his car into a bus carrying Indian military personnel in the town of Pulwama killing 40 and wounding others.
What followed became one of the deadliest confrontations between two nuclear armed
states, both CTBT Annex 2 States - among the Yet despite the prospects of the treaeight who have yet to ratify the treaty. ty currently winning support from South Asia’s uneasy neighbours seeming unlikely, In a dogfight an Indian fighter jet was it is a persuasive reminder that solutions shot down and its pilot captured to be re- are at hand for building confidence and leased in a peace gesture by Pakistan. mitigating tensions in such a hostile and fragile environment. A multilateral mechThe conflict not only challenged peace anism such as the CTBT, experts say, could and stability in South Asia but reignited potentially play a vital role in blunting a bidebate in the region. It brought into per- lateral dispute. spective nuclear weapons testing, the nuclear non-proliferation regime, scientific The view of experts such as Pervez Hoodcooperation, India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine, bhoy, a nuclear physicist and activist teachnuclear deterrence and tactical nuclear ing at Forman Christian College in Lahore weapons. remain downbeat. Both nuclear powers are on the brink and scientific cooperation reWithin India there has recently been a mains remote, he said. He maintains that call to test its thermonuclear capability. Kr- nuclear deterrence will hold but the situaishnamurthy Santhanam, who participat- tion is vulnerable to escalation. ed in the May 1998 tests, urged New Delhi to try again and refrain from signing the The bones of contention are conflicting CTBT. Such voices are bound to be further narratives and threat perceptions. India emboldened given the current environ- long maintains that Pakistan carries out ment in which Pakistan could respond by state sponsored terrorism on its soil and testing theatre nuclear weapons. must be punished with punitive strikes on its territory. A response has been its Cold In addition, Pakistan’s stance towards Start doctrine allowing its superiority in signing the CTBT unless India takes the conventional forces to retaliate and inflict lead is also not likely to change. The ten- considerable damage on Pakistan with the or of global nuclear non-proliferation with aim of preventing a nuclear attack. the recent scrapping of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) discourages bold moves.
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www.flickr.com/photos/kashmirglobal/5166831298/in/album-72157625239483485, CC BY
Marco Verch, www.flickr.com/photos/146269332@N03/46184715175, CC BY
THE INDO-PAK STANDOFF OF 2019 PROSPECTS FOR PEACE, SCIENTIFIC COOPERATION AND NUCLEAR TESTING
KASHMIR UNREST, 2010.
In an interview Hoodbhoy said he believes that Pakistan, which is conventionally inferior, would consider a response with tactical nuclear weapons to nullify the potency of a possible Indian incursion. Such a possibility is a geopolitical nightmare and bodes ill for regional stability. Another element in South Asian tensions is continued resentment by Pakistan towards the India-US nuclear deal of 2008. Against popular belief, not all Americans supported the George W. Bush administration agreement. Tom Shea, a leading expert on nuclear disarmament and an adjunct, non-resident fellow at the Federation of American Scientists said in an interview the deal was intended to encourage the sale of nuclear power reactors by the US which never materialized.
ment between India and Pakistan will continue to be in its national interest. The spiral effect of terrorism would jeopardize its Belt and Road initiative and escalation between the two nuclear armed countries would hurt China as much as it would hurt any other country. Both India and Pakistan have a stake in countering terrorism. This becomes a moot point given that both countries have best practices which can thwart terrorism - a subject which is a bone of contention between them.
It is perhaps unsurprising, that the current state of relations between India and Pakistan, based on mounting hostility and threats, shows no end. A newly elected government will also determine the course of peace in the region and whether dialogue In the aftermath of the Pulwama Attack resumes. the restraint threshold has been lowered between India and Pakistan and escalation A combination of Russian-US and Siwith the chance of a fresh confrontation re- no-US rivalry, also contributes to the conmains a possibility unless pressing issues clusion that sustainable peace and scienare addressed, he said in an email inter- tific cooperation remains elusive, a fact view. echoed by the Pakistani experts. against jihadist organizations, says Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, there is good reason to feel alarmed.
Terrorism and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal
There has however, been a small chink of light in the gloom surrounding the prospects for the CTBT in the region. Both India and Pakistan have been invited by Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the CTBTO, to participate in the organization’s activities as observers - and Pakistan has accepted.
A point of contention between India and Pakistan has been over claims Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of terrorists. Pakistan insists its Personnel Reliability Programmes (PRPs) rigorously vet Nevertheless, Pakistan’s sense of griev- individuals working in its nuclear facilities Observer status would give both states ance towards the deal continues and is providing the assurance of security. access to data from its International Monlikely to increase in the near future given itoring System checking the planet for any its loosening ties with both the US and InDespite the vested interest of both states evidence of nuclear explosions, a signifidia. Shea also proposes a mechanism to in- to counter the collective threat of terrorism cant contribution to easing any suspicions centivize states to work towards non-prolif- said Khan, such programmes as the PRPs of clandestine nuclear testing. eration by getting them to understand the are shrouded in secrecy and there would be pernicious effects of nuclear war. Dialogue no point discussing them further, particuThe data also has civilian applications, and discussion with the international com- larly not with an adversary such as India or whose many benefits include early warnmunity taking a key role are required he vice versa, he said. ing of the onset of the monsoon season. said. But dialogue, as of now, is absent. Such dividends could act as introductory In addition to Khan’s analysis, the India offers to the treaty. And hindsight after the Cyber warfare Pakistan crisis cannot be divorced from re- recent Pulwama conflict could also lead to gional dynamics and the role of great pow- acknowledgement of the need for outside Today’s battlefield is also defined by hy- ers. China’s emergence as a global power independent help - of the confidence buildbrid warfare of which cyber warfare is an and a direct rival to the US is another crit- ing kind represented by the CTBT. integral component. Both India and Paki- ical variable in the aftermath of the 2019 stan non-state hacktivists have been using India Pakistan standoff. Beijing had urged Hamzah Rifaat is an anchor for PTV World, cyber space to launch malicious attacks both sides to de-escalate and although the Pakistan's only English news channel. He for two decades mostly defacing websites. UN Security Council on 1 May declared holds a diploma in World Affairs and ProShea says that in in sensitive environments, Jaish E Mohammad’s Masood Azhar, the fessional Diplomacy from the Bandarastates are more inclined towards building alleged mastermind of the Pulwama attack naike Diplomatic Training Institute in their infrastructure to dissuade cyber-at- an international terrorist, initially it de- Colombo, Sri Lanka. He was a freelance tacks and prepare for offensive counter- layed support. writer and blogger for the Friday Times measures as preemption. Given the history and studied non-proliferation and terrorof India and Pakistan cyber attacks warfare China has a key role to play and peace ism studies at the Center for Nonproliferand current tensions, needed deals or po- between India and Pakistan and prospects ation Studies. He was also a Graduate Editential avenues for cooperation to reduce for banning nuclear testing could become torial Assistant for Women's International cyber security risks appear remote. jeopardized by regional dynamics. Yet Chi- Perspective, a global source for women's na’s internal struggle against Uighur sep- perspectives, based in Monterey. Without India stopping its repression aratists in Xinjiang province would also in Kashmir, and Pakistan taking action mean that crisis prevention and manage-
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