The introduction of ceilings for the number of nuclear warheads, which could later be reduced proportionally by all the de-facto nuclear powers

THE INDO-PAK STANDOFF OF 2019 PROSPECTS FOR PEACE, SCIENTIFIC COOPERATION AND NUCLEAR TESTING

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

By Hamzah Rifaat Hussain PTV World Islamabad, Pakistan

On 14 February 2019 in Indian administered Kashmir a suicide bomber drove his car into a bus carrying Indian military personnel in the town of Pulwama killing 40 and wounding others.

Marco Verch, www. flickr.com/photos/146269332@N03/4 6184715175, CC BY

states, both CTBT Annex 2 States - among the eight who have yet to ratify the treaty.

In a dogfight an Indian fighter jet was shot down and its pilot captured to be released in a peace gesture by Pakistan.

The conflict not only challenged peace and stability in South Asia but reignited debate in the region. It brought into perspective nuclear weapons testing, the nuclear non-proliferation regime, scientific cooperation, India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine, nuclear deterrence and tactical nuclear weapons.

Within India there has recently been a call to test its thermonuclear capability. Krishnamurthy Santhanam, who participated in the May 1998 tests, urged New Delhi to try again and refrain from signing the CTBT. Such voices are bound to be further emboldened given the current environment in which Pakistan could respond by testing theatre nuclear weapons.

In addition, Pakistan’s stance towards signing the CTBT unless India takes the lead is also not likely to change. The tenor of global nuclear non-proliferation with the recent scrapping of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) discourages bold moves. Yet despite the prospects of the treaty currently winning support from South Asia’s uneasy neighbours seeming unlikely, it is a persuasive reminder that solutions are at hand for building confidence and mitigating tensions in such a hostile and fragile environment. A multilateral mechanism such as the CTBT, experts say, could potentially play a vital role in blunting a bilateral dispute.

The view of experts such as Pervez Hoodbhoy, a nuclear physicist and activist teaching at Forman Christian College in Lahore remain downbeat. Both nuclear powers are on the brink and scientific cooperation remains remote, he said. He maintains that nuclear deterrence will hold but the situation is vulnerable to escalation.

The bones of contention are conflicting narratives and threat perceptions. India long maintains that Pakistan carries out state sponsored terrorism on its soil and must be punished with punitive strikes on its territory. A response has been its Cold Start doctrine allowing its superiority in conventional forces to retaliate and inflict considerable damage on Pakistan with the aim of preventing a nuclear attack. KASHMIR UNREST, 2010.

www.flickr.com/photos/kashmirglobal/5166831298/in/album-72157625239483485, CC BY

ment between India and Pakistan will continue to be in its national interest.

The spiral effect of terrorism would jeopardize its Belt and Road initiative and escalation between the two nuclear armed countries would hurt China as much as it would hurt any other country.

Both India and Pakistan have a stake in countering terrorism. This becomes a moot point given that both countries have best practices which can thwart terrorism - a subject which is a bone of contention between them.

In an interview Hoodbhoy said he believes that Pakistan, which is conventionally inferior, would consider a response with tactical nuclear weapons to nullify the potency of a possible Indian incursion. Such a possibility is a geopolitical nightmare and bodes ill for regional stability.

Another element in South Asian tensions is continued resentment by Pakistan towards the India-US nuclear deal of 2008. Against popular belief, not all Americans supported the George W. Bush administration agreement. Tom Shea, a leading expert on nuclear disarmament and an adjunct, non-resident fellow at the Federation of American Scientists said in an interview the deal was intended to encourage the sale of nuclear power reactors by the US which never materialized.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s sense of grievance towards the deal continues and is likely to increase in the near future given its loosening ties with both the US and India. Shea also proposes a mechanism to incentivize states to work towards non-proliferation by getting them to understand the pernicious effects of nuclear war. Dialogue and discussion with the international community taking a key role are required he said. But dialogue, as of now, is absent. Cyber warfare

Today’s battlefield is also defined by hybrid warfare of which cyber warfare is an integral component. Both India and Pakistan non-state hacktivists have been using cyber space to launch malicious attacks for two decades mostly defacing websites. Shea says that in in sensitive environments, states are more inclined towards building their infrastructure to dissuade cyber-attacks and prepare for offensive countermeasures as preemption. Given the history of India and Pakistan cyber attacks warfare and current tensions, needed deals or potential avenues for cooperation to reduce cyber security risks appear remote.

Without India stopping its repression in Kashmir, and Pakistan taking action against jihadist organizations, says Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, there is good reason to feel alarmed.

In the aftermath of the Pulwama Attack the restraint threshold has been lowered between India and Pakistan and escalation with the chance of a fresh confrontation remains a possibility unless pressing issues are addressed, he said in an email interview. Terrorism and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal

A point of contention between India and Pakistan has been over claims Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of terrorists. Pakistan insists its Personnel Reliability Programmes (PRPs) rigorously vet individuals working in its nuclear facilities providing the assurance of security.

Despite the vested interest of both states to counter the collective threat of terrorism said Khan, such programmes as the PRPs are shrouded in secrecy and there would be no point discussing them further, particularly not with an adversary such as India or vice versa, he said.

In addition to Khan’s analysis, the India Pakistan crisis cannot be divorced from regional dynamics and the role of great powers. China’s emergence as a global power and a direct rival to the US is another critical variable in the aftermath of the 2019 India Pakistan standoff. Beijing had urged both sides to de-escalate and although the UN Security Council on 1 May declared Jaish E Mohammad’s Masood Azhar, the alleged mastermind of the Pulwama attack an international terrorist, initially it delayed support.

China has a key role to play and peace between India and Pakistan and prospects for banning nuclear testing could become jeopardized by regional dynamics. Yet China’s internal struggle against Uighur separatists in Xinjiang province would also mean that crisis prevention and manageIt is perhaps unsurprising, that the current state of relations between India and Pakistan, based on mounting hostility and threats, shows no end. A newly elected government will also determine the course of peace in the region and whether dialogue resumes.

A combination of Russian-US and Sino-US rivalry, also contributes to the conclusion that sustainable peace and scientific cooperation remains elusive, a fact echoed by the Pakistani experts.

There has however, been a small chink of light in the gloom surrounding the prospects for the CTBT in the region. Both India and Pakistan have been invited by Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the CTBTO, to participate in the organization’s activities as observers - and Pakistan has accepted.

Observer status would give both states access to data from its International Monitoring System checking the planet for any evidence of nuclear explosions, a significant contribution to easing any suspicions of clandestine nuclear testing.

The data also has civilian applications, whose many benefits include early warning of the onset of the monsoon season. Such dividends could act as introductory offers to the treaty. And hindsight after the recent Pulwama conflict could also lead to acknowledgement of the need for outside independent help - of the confidence building kind represented by the CTBT.

Hamzah Rifaat is an anchor for PTV World, Pakistan's only English news channel. He holds a diploma in World Affairs and Professional Diplomacy from the Bandaranaike Diplomatic Training Institute in Colombo, Sri Lanka. He was a freelance writer and blogger for the Friday Times and studied non-proliferation and terrorism studies at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. He was also a Graduate Editorial Assistant for Women's International Perspective, a global source for women's perspectives, based in Monterey.