Mobilemegatrends2011visionmobile 110209095522 phpapp01 by Cypres Communications Agency

VisionMobile : distilling market noise into market sense

Mobile Megatrends 2011 updated 10 Feb 2011 Page

Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.

Andreas Constantinou Michael Vakulenko Matos Kapetanakis (c) VisionMobile 2011

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0) You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to VisionMobile (www.visionmobile.com). Page

VisionMobile research

Distilling market noise into market sense Research

Training

Market maps

Strategy definition

competitive analysis, commissioned research, company due diligence

open source economics, Android commercials, mobile industry dynamics

Competitive landscape maps of the mobile industry

strategy design, ecosystem positioning, product definition

Developer Economics 2010: Everything on mobile development

Active Idle Screen Who will own the screen?

Open Source Chessboard business impacts of mobile open source, the competitive landscape and how to design your company strategy

Mobile Industry Atlas, 3rd ed. 1,100+ companies, 69 market sectors

Top-100 analyst blog

9LVLRQ0RELOH Â&#x192; WUDLQLQJ FRXUVH

7KH $QGURLG *DPH 3ODQ WKH FRPPHUFLDO PHFKDQLFV EHKLQG $QGURLG DQG KRZ *RRJOH UXQV WKH VKRZ

GPLv2 vs GPLv3 White Paper

Mobile Megatrends series

4,000+ subscribers 20,000+ monthly uniques 90% mobile industry insiders 6R \RX ZDQW WR SOD\ WKH $QGURLG JDPH ÂŤEXW GR \RX NQRZ WKH UXOHV" Â&#x192; WUDLQLQJ FRXUVH

The Android Game Plan the commercial mechanics behind Android and how Google runs the show

Page

100 million club tracking successful businesses in mobile

Trusted by industry brands

Clients

selected VisionMobile clients 2008-2010 Page

Mobile Megatrends 2011

Software: new era for telecoms

How the mobile handset landscape is becoming much like the PC

and the new rules for innovation

how telecoms + internet convergence is leading to the next megabrands

Apps are the new web

open + closed

Why apps are the new information paradigm for web 3.0

use of open + closed strategies to commoditise + protect

Developers, developers

Communities: a new currency Page

Experience ecosystems

The DELL-ification of mobile

Communities will provide the main differentiation above price, design and content

the engine behind telecoms innovation

Stuck in the telecoms age how carriers are stuck in the telecoms age and how to compete

The DELL-ification of mobile How the mobile handset market is approaching PC-like commoditisation

Page

Internet players agenda drive top-5 OEMs and OEM market is fragmenting, approaching the PC market

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Q3 2010

81%

80%

61%

Market share of top-5 OEMs (source: Gartner)

67% Page

73%

72%

Profits are driven by end-to-end players and away from the old top-5 OEM league

source: Deutsche Bank Page

OEM strategies: volume vs profit

$ profit per unit

= strategy

2010 market share % Page

data source: Deutsche Bank Copyright VisionMobile 2011

OEMs at different stages of integration Three roles for handset manufacturers across the double helix Horizontal player structure

Vertical player structure Leaders: new product experiences and enviable margins

Assemblers razon-thin margins

wannabee innovators

wannabee leaders

Innovators: incremental innovation strong brand, performance, good looks and services

Page

Lead, innovate or assemble The new role models for OEMs in the post-Android era

1. Assemblers: Razor-thin margins 10s of assemblers use Android to deliver ready-to-market smartphones with complete service and apps ecosystem competing head-to-head with major OEMs. iPhone me-too experience at $100 retail.

2. Leaders: unique product experiences Manufacturers who can masterfully integrate hardware + software + services + industrial design into new product experiences - from phones and tablets to TVs. Unique product experiences at $500 retail.

3. Innovators: incremental innovation The old top-5 OEM guard. Differentiation is on strong brand, performance, good looks and services.

4. Mass producers: catering to developing markets

Mass producers rely on huge economies of scale to break even at $50, but make up nearly 50% of unit sales in the mobile handset market.

Page

The innovators are squeezed in Revenue pyramid

performance pressure

Leaders: new product experiences

Innovators: incremental innovation

price pressure

Page

Assemblers: razor-thin margins

DELLification in 2015 closely modelling the PC business Profit pyramid

Revenue pyramid

Present-day example

Leaders Role model: Apple 5% @ $500

€37.5B

Innovators €90B

25% @ $250

Role model: Samsung

Assemblers

Role model: Dell

1.5 B

de vi ce s

€56B

Page

25% @ $100

Mass producers

Role model: Nokia €37.5B

45% @ $50

$200B Copyright VisionMobile 2011

OEM + Android: winners and losers The winners: low cost assemblers

The losers: â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;old guardâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; OEMs

Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach

Cost structure requires high-margins Android is a short-term life support

No Name

Page

The new world: Innovate or die The new rules of the handset industry 1. Software and hardware is commodity - Software is a loss-leader, monetised by ads (Google), hardware (Apple), content (Amazon), services (RIM) - Software is provided a la carte and pre-integrated by chipset providers (e.g. Qualcomm, MediaTek)

2. Points of differentiation rapidly disappearing - Android provides out-of-the-box, complete ecosystems; OEMs compete on equal footing to assemblers

3. The search for innovation is on OEMs are search for new models of innovation beyond price, brand, performance and marketing: - communities BlackBerry messaging or facebook deals - made-to-order handsets; copying DELL’s PC model - white label services for carriers where OEMs trade service revenues for carrier subsidies - micro-retailing ‘slotting’ promos across distribution regions and channels Page

Software: the new era for telecoms and the new rules for innovation

image source: maschinenraum / Flickr

Page

$$$ and software DNA are key for platforms

Internet

20 dead platforms in the last 10 years

Danger OS

Android

SavaJe OS Trolltech $30M A la Mobile

Mobile

Nokia GEOS

iOS Azingo

IXI Mobile

Palm 5/6

Motorola L-J

Comneon Apoxi

e-SIM

Intrinsyc OS

UIQ

2000 = dead end

2001

Mizi Prizm MOAP

TTPCom Ajar

2002

bubble size = company revenues

Access ALP OpenWave MIDAS

Sasken Aria SKY-MAP

Page

Chrome OS

OpenMoko

2007

2008

2009

2010

The battle for mass-market smartphone reach OEM internal

licensable

mobile computers

€600+

€100

connected phones

device retail price

€400

Nokia Series 40 Samsung SHP LG Wise

voice phones

€50 Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos

14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products 11 out of 15 platforms have developer ecosystems or industry consortia built around them Page

The battle for ecosystem completeness Carriers

Nokia

RIM

Apple

Qualcomm

Google

facebook

Components Social networks

Cloud services

Developer ecosystem

Network

User interface

Operating system

Hardware IP

Manufacturing denotes where vendor started Page

Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds

success as defined in success as defined in

2010

2005

Page

software: turning telecoms upside down VA3#234+53#41G#N::1#L8?87-W#XX#C+1+-.D-E+,3#Y3138?5A# J/*E3?#-K#8::1#848+,8E,3#+.#8::#10-?31#9;%#)'"'<#

234+531#6-,7#0-#7803#9/:#0-#;%#)'"'<#

internalised

!"!#

+LA-.3# 9+M6<#

$!#

)H'&'''#

N.7?-+7#

!!#

stasis back to square zero

'# )&(''#

)&'''#

"&(''#

"'&'''#

S,81A# T+03#

"&(''#

*+,,+-.#/.+01# %&'''#

!(&'''#

Q,85RQ3??>#

""(#

"&'''#

(''#

the new networks

I'&'''#

O848#DP#

%&%''#

%&(''#

$&%''#

6>*E+8.#

dual personality

(&'''#

U+.7-F1# LA-.3#

I''# '#

back to square zero ('&'''#

"''&'''#

8::1# "('&'''#

)''&'''#

)('&'''#

%''&'''#

=-:>?+@A0#B#C+1+-.D-E+,3#)'"'# FFFG4+1+-.*-E+,3G5-*#

Page

Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds

Page

Telecoms world

Software world

Success factor

Installed base

Number of apps

Speed of innovation

1 OS version every 2 years

5 OS versions/year

Time to market

1-2 years

1-2 weeks

Type of services

comms-centric

catering to entire needs portfolio

Risk-taking

predictability / de-risking

entrepreneurship / uncertainty

Access to innovation

100s of close partners

100,000s of developers

Business model

B2B licensing

B2C sales/ads/in-app sales

Channel to market

voice, text and web

smartphones

Discovery

On deck / on device

App store

First step

“we need to sign an NDA”

“we need to download the SDK”

Process

Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, QA

Agile: add feature, build, test, repeat

Attitude

“developers will come to us”

“we need to go to developers” Copyright VisionMobile 2011

The new rules of innovation 1. Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks - Companies from the Internet domain (Apple, Google, Facebook) out-innovate companies from the mobile industry domain (Nokia, Samsung, Sun) and the networks domain (Vodafone, China Mobile) - Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive

2. Innovation requires new competence and regional presence - California is the center for software and services innovation. Japan/Korea is the center of CE innovation. - You canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t innovate in software unless you have DNA in software and presence in those regions

3. If you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t innovate in software, you will be replaced - The evolutionary game has just accelerated 10-fold. - Players who cannot evolve at software speeds will eventually be replaced by alternatives (e.g. software has superseded carrier efforts in location, billing and distribution)

Page

Experience Ecosystems telecoms + internet convergence is leading to experience ecosystems

Page

telecoms + internet + PC + consumer electronics = ?

our definition of convergence has changed 2003

2010

2015

? Page

the future of convergence?

No more.

Leaders Innovators

-‐ Innovators are in a price war

Assemblers

-‐ Android is making smart devices possible -‐ ARM becoming defacto in CE devices -‐ Sensors + form factors = diverse experiences -‐ Developer ecosystem is part of core experience

Page

Convergence is about experience roaming Convergence is about having an experience that roams consistently across â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;screensâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

across screens

experience roaming Social circle Developer ecosystem

convergence =

User data roaming Service roaming

User interaction design Industrial design Brand

Page

Apple is the poster child of experience roaming Apple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens

Experience roaming

Page

Across screens

Social circle

Ping

Apps ecosystem

App Store

iPod iPhone

User data roaming

MobileMe

iPad

Service roaming

iTunes, AirPlay

Mac

User interaction design

iOS

Apple TV

Industrial design

Apple

Brand

Apple

The next battle is for Experience Ecosystems Experience Ecosystems create major exit barriers and drive cross-sales; they are therefore a sustainable strategy for Innovator OEMs needing to survive margin pressures.

network effects Page

network effects Copyright VisionMobile 2011

the future of convergence is experience roaming convergence = screens + experience

2003

2010

2015

the future of convergence is in a single experience + developer ecosystem powered by ARM hardware across mobile, PC & embedded Page

Apps are the new web

Why apps are the new information paradigm for web 3.0

Page

Everyone wants their own app store but very few are above the radar

= number of apps when above 5,000

OS vendors

OEMs

Carriers

Independent

Source: Distimo Page

App stores are about control, not $$$ App Stores are a control point for:

and an opportunity for:

- access to applications e.g. Skype cannot have a video calling app on the iPhone

- distribution of applications e.g Google uses Android Market to enforce compliance requirements on Android handsets

- billing & monetisation of applications an opportunity to extract a commission in the form of revenue share for paid apps and in-app purchases

- retailing & discovery of applications an opportunity to sell ads and personalisation services to developers, plus differentiate with content curation

- consumer insights an opportunity to optimise device and service targeting Page

Building an app store is not easy

Page

Why is building an app store so hard? App stores need 5 genes from 5 species across the value chain Genes

Species

platform companies

Page

mobile carriers & payment brokers

handset OEMs

platform brands and companies retailers

3 pillars to the app store evolution 2011-13 1. Merchandising: App stores will take retailing where itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s never been before - app retailing is bottleneck, resulting in price erosion as developers drop prices to bubble up to the top-25. -This will drive retail sophistication: App Malls (shops-in-shop), bundles, time-limited offers, friend endorsements, inventory micro-targeting, gift/beg options, second-hand apps, offers tied to carriers, etc

2. Diversity: App Stores will cater to 100s of niche segments; Genre-centric stores (Games store), lifestyle-centric stores (e.g. sports or clothes brands), specialist content (e.g. adult or enterprise), region-centric stores (e.g. Seattle apps)

3. Low barriers: App Malls will enable low-cost shops-in-shop setups SDP vendors will offer the infrastructure, catalogue and recommendations technology allowing wannabe app retailers to be setup at very low cost, with proven revenue models (setup fee + rent + sales commission)

Page

Apps succeed where the web failed - 2007: voice, text and web was main channel for services the old school of mobile services: voice, texting, ringtones, televoting, MMS, Mobile TV,..

- 2011: 500,000+ applications on smartphones - Apps are the single biggest digital channel since the web - There are apps springing up everywhere there is a website for every website, for every brand and for every corporate intranet

- Apps succeeded where cross-platform frameworks failed Mobile web pages and widgets are poor alternatives to apps Java and Flash failed to pick up where web left off

- The web is now the lowest common denominator across screens across devices, the living room, the PC and the car

Page

what is are apps?

apps are a new information paradigm For..

Mobile apps

Web pages

packaging

Self-contained

Set of pages

personalising

explicitly typed info only

discovering

access to location, contacts app store

monetising

micropayments

ads

interacting

touch, sensors, keys

mouse, keys

measuring

downloads economy

attention economy

text results or URL

.. information

Page

Web 3.0 will adopt the app paradigm Web apps will proliferate in mobile handsets driven by - web benefactors Google, Microsoft, Apple - technology commoditisation; WebKit and V8; - consistent technology adoption WebKit on >350M handsets up to June 2010 - platform vendors seeking to modernise their developer platforms e.g. WebOS vs Palm OS, RIM WebWorks vs BlackBerry OS 6, Nokia WRT. BREW to follow?

- and “buy in” to a developer community and a “hype-ready” platform building a developer community is extremely expensive. It comes for free with web technologies

- the need to tap into new developer segments from the web domain 1.5 million web developers most of which are new to mobile

- The need to reduce development costs for cross-screen apps mobile, tablet, PC, TV, consumer electronics, automotive, ..

Page

Google under threat in web 3.0 Google rose due to openness, info chaos and lack of monetisation - the open (crawlable) web, - the lack of information semantics (needing Pagerank to create order out of chaos) - the lack of a micropayments mechanism on the web (increasing demand for ads)

Google is now threatened from web silos, app stores and micropayments - closed web silos (Facebook and Appleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s app store) - semantic information discovery in app stores (reducing greatly the search complexity) - app micropayments & NFC (reducing the need for ads)

To survive, Google is trying to outrun the market trends - launching is own walled gardens (Orkut and Buzz), its own app stores (Android Market and Chrome Web Store) and integrating a payments technology (NFC) within Android handsets

Page

Open + closed: two sides of the same coin use of open + closed strategies to commoditise + protect

Page

Open is the new closed - Android, MeeGo, Webkit, Qt, Maemo, Eclipse, Linux all use open source all projects use an open source license for the public source code

- Open source licenses are standardised and well understood 3 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, APL)

- But an open source license is only the tip of the iceberg a license determines access to the project (e.g. Android public source code)

- Governance is what determines the rules of the game the governance model determines access and influence into the product (e.g. Android handsets)

- Open licenses are used with closed governance many projects restrict governance while maintaining an open source license

Page

Closed governance is used to control clever use of governance models can be used to control products based on OSS license type

dual license (commercial + copyleft)

strong copyleft (GPL)

Linux kernel

Foundation

weak copyleft (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..)

Foundation WebKit

Android

open community

managed community

permissive (APL, BSD, MIT, ...)

autocratic community

governance model (simplified) Page

What are the criteria for ‘openness’ ? Access •

Is source code available to all without discrimination?

•

Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all?

•

Is the project roadmap available publicly?

Development •

Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible?

•

Is the code contribution and acceptance process clear and accessible?

•

Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable?

•

Can you identify who the committers to the project are?

•

Are the requirements to become a reviewer clear and equitable?

•

Can you identify who the reviews to the project are?

•

Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a copyright license)

Derivatives •

Are trademarks used to control compliance and use of the project?

•

Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained?

Community •

Page

Do different community members have different rights?

Openness to commoditise product complements beyond open source, openness is used as a business strategy to commoditise product complements while protecting core assets iOS

Android

Windows Phone

BlackBerry

Symbian

Closed

Open

Closed

Open

App developers

Curated

Open

Curated

Device vendor

Closed

Open

Closed

Open

Software platform

Closed

Curated

Hardware platform

Closed

Curated

Closed

Open

Bundled services

Page

Developers, Developers, Developers the engine behind telecoms innovation

Page

Based on

Free download: www.Developer Economics.com

Mobile Developer Economics 2010

Page

- Analysis of the developer experience from design to monetisation - Across all 8 major platforms

- Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers - With significant experience in mobile development More than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development. Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards

The diverse world of software developers With different business models and incentives

content publishers Internet service providers

system integrators

mobile games developers software houses independent developers

Page

software integration services

Android has biggest mindshare

The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers

Android developer

-Android has biggest mindshare - Symbian/Java down from #1/#2 in 2008

Page

“

- Most developers work on multiple platforms

Android is better than other platforms in terms of tools, platform features, and it’s easier to stand out as developer.” Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Android 3x easier to learn than Symbian

Page

Developers becoming market savvy

- Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than

Mobile web developer

Commercial above technical reasoning -Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is

good documentation (35%) Page

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

more important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%)

technical considerations are irrelevant, the choice of platform is ALWAYS marketing-driven.â&#x20AC;?

App Stores reduce time-to-market by 3x

â&#x20AC;&#x153; Page

App Stores minimised time-to-shelf from 68 days to 22 days and halved time-to-payment

The app developer journey The many facets of the app developer experience - platform hype

- developer certification

- analytics & sales tracking

- addressable market

- app signing, certification & approval

- user ratings

(devices/regions)

- regional testing & sandbox networks

- user support

- platform features

- beta testing with peers and end users

- application updates

- learning curve & coding effort

- localisation frameworks

- cross-selling

- conferences & competitions

- packaging and SKU management tools

- privacy compliance

* application planning

* platform selection

* develop, debug & support

market readiness

retailing & monetisation

- audience targeting

- IDEs, SDKs and documentation

- go-to-market channels

- concept design

- UI tools

- promotional tools

- feature design

- emulator and on-target debugging

- co-marketing programs

- prototyping tools

- community & official forums/websites

- revenue models

- market research

- profiling tools

- billing & settlement

- focus groups

- test frameworks

in-life application use

- porting tools *: mostly applicable to developers who sell apps Page

Key developer pain points based on Developer Economics 2010 research

App submission & certification application certification is expensive, approval takes too long, and signing is complicated

application planning

platform selection

develop, debug & support

market readiness

Application marketing lack of effective marketing channels to increase app exposure and discovery

retailing & monetisation

in-life application use

most vendor effort goes here

Localisation lack of localised apps for most regions, lack of localisation tools for developers

Page

Dubious long-tail economics average RoI through an app store is much less than the cost of producing the app

Are you a mobile developer? Want to share your own views on app development? Join in Developer Economics 2011. Have your say on the hottest issues in app development and win a $1,500 Amazon voucher. www.visionmobile.com/dev open until end March 2011.

created by

sponsored by

Page

Communities: the new currency

Page

Communities are the new frontier Building a brand, product or technology is science Building a community is a form of art Whether itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a consumer, enterprise or a developer community New techniques are emerging; game mechanics and religion engineering

Page

you can buy an audience but.. you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t buy a community an audience is people who interact with a service. a community is a network of people who interact amongst them you can buy an audience (eyeballs or subscribers) but you canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t buy a community (network interactions)

Page

Communities are the new differentiator Service brands, OEMs and carriers have tried to create own communities But found that community creation needs a very different rulebook And ended up partnering with communities (Facebook, Twitter, etc) Exclusive deals with communities will be the new differentiator above price, design and premium content.

Page

Communities are the new currency Zynga's CityVille grew to 100 million users in just 43 days Facebook is a platform between 500M+ users and 2.5M+ developers Facebook is #1 social network across the world except China, Russia, Brazil, Japan Skype: 8 million paid users and 25% of global international calling traffic

Page

Carriers: stuck in the telecoms age and how to compete

Page

Carriers in the midst of an identity crisis Carriers are telecoms-age species in a software age - Carriers have grown in the telecoms age; this affects their ability to adapt and their speed of innovation

..In an identity crisis - Carriers are still undecided as to whether they want to be an access company (e.g. LightSquared, KPN), a supermarket (Verizon), a shelf (Vodafone) or a broker (Three). They want to be everything to everyone.

Losing battle after battle for control points - non-communication needs (apps), location (GPS), billing (app stores), service retailing & discovery (app stores), authentication (Twitter/facebook), mobile termination (Google C2DM), subscriber activation (iPhone soft SIM?)

With no innovation in their core business - voice, texting and SIM cards have seen no innovation in the last decade. Page

Taking baby steps in the software age Carriers donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know how to use software - Carriers software efforts are mediocre; see Vodafone VSCL, VFX and widgets - Using WAC to profit from apps, when Apple/Google are not profiting from apps

Carriers are accelerating the PC-like commoditisation of handsets - skewing the natural OEM selection process (by ranging handsets on a OS basis) and forcing Innovator OEMs to struggle while nimble assemblers thrive - The $100 smartphone means loss of subsidy power for carriers, therefore loss of differentiation

Carriers are funding their antagonists - most Android projects 2007-2009 were carrier-funded. - Android and iPhone are playing AT&T and Verizon like puppets on strings; e.g. Verizon now heavily marketing iPhone, while AT&T heavily pushing Android.

Page

The real value of carriers The real value of carriers is still untapped 1. Leverage apps to drive core business, not generate revenues - Deliver voice and messaging apps that build on core network business, at 10x deployment speeds - quit pushing for higher communications ARPU, but leverage apps to extent revenues across untapped segments of consumer spending portfolio (transport, health, food, housing, etc) - expose network APIs that drive lock-in to core business, not APIs that generate revenue - leverage apps to drive premium customer acquisition, customer retention and increase switching costs

2. Divide and conquer among app stores - Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t create new app stores (WAC) but divide and conquer among existing app stores - Create shop fronts for app retailing and promotions - Monetise by helping developers target apps to the right demographic in real time - Offer recommendation services by tapping into usersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; social graph Page

The real value of carriers 3. Increase power over OEM suppliers - Shift handset purchasing model to a performance based per-device bonus based on hitting ARPU, messaging and churn targets; leverage on network analytics. - Resist a price war on handsets by favouring an oligopoly of traditional suppliers

4. Become the VISA of mobile - aggressively grow carrier billing usage via in-app payments - provide micro-billing at VISA-like rates activated via SMS

5. Invest in retail differentiation - as devices commoditise, retail will become a stronger control point for customer acquisition - Invest in retail differentiation, for example visual service retailing, bundling services/apps in handsets, deploying handset PoS configurators and carrying out PoS customer segmentation analysis.

Page

The real value of carriers 6. Customer experience management - Identify influencers and improve lifetime value metrics - Understand customer behaviour and enable behavioural targeting by third parties

7. Drive wholesale business beyond mobile - Drive wholesale model in CE business (ala Kindle) to de-risk and differentiate bandwidth pricing

8. Handset customisation: focus on merchandising and addressbook - focus on a single app (active idle screen) to be provisioned on all smartphones + some Java handsets - idle screen app can encompass service merchandising/promos and addressbook functionality - leave all other apps to 3rd parties!

Page

a note of caution

is WAC repeating history mistakes? - WAC is a framework for creating carrier-owned app stores even if carriers don’t have most of the genes to create their own app store -

and making money from apps when Apple/Google use apps as a complementary business, not as a revenue generator

- Needs software agility, but moves with telecoms rigidity 12 months since announcement and no distribution channel, no marketplace, no billing Telecoms rigidity and ‘design by committee’ is the key reason why LiMo failed

- Smartphone focus, but feature phone opportunity Smartphone focus (Opera, S60, iPhone), where competition is fierce. Opportunity is in feature phones but challenge is fragmentation of widget runtimes and buying power - why i-mode alliance failed.

- Distribution channel will fail once runtimes fragment Same reason why a Java app store would fail.

- Distribution will fragment among carriers Each carrier to have different app requirements and revenue shares Same reason while the BREW app store (since 2001) failed to reach Apple’s proportions Page

Thanks for listening. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.

want more?

hello@visionmobile.com contact us to schedule an on-site workshop.

Updated: 12 November 2010

Page