September 26, 2018

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Wednesday September 26, 2018 vol. CXLII no. 74

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BEYOND THE BUBBLE

Gerken ’91 addresses allegations

STUDENT LIFE

IMAGE COURTESY OF GOFUNDME

Abdillahi was known for her steadfast dedication to her faith.

Dozens gather in memory of Yasmin Abdillahi ’20

By Benjamin Ball

On Tuesday, Sept. 25, over 30 students and members of the Office of Religious Life gathered in Murray-Dodge Hall to celebrate the life of Yasmin Abdillahi ’20, who died in Texas on June 8.

Gathered in a circle of chairs with students, members of the Office of Religious Life introduced the ceremony and spoke about Abdillahi’s positive legacy.

People filled the room, with several gathered in the doorway and seated on the floor.

“This room is packed with people who are just so touched by her friendship, so moved by her loveliness,” said Dean Alison Boden

of the Office of Religious Life.

For the majority of the ceremony, Abdillahi’s friends and classmates shared stories and fond memories. Many statements were thought out ahead of time, while others were generously given in the moment.

Several close friends shared memories of times spent with Abdillahi at art classes, over meals in the dining hall, at the Garden Theatre, and on dorm room floors watching YouTube videos.

Abdillahi was a member of Whitman College.

She identified as SomaliAmerican, and was known for her steadfast dedication to her faith and her education.

ON CAMPUS

ON CAMPUS

Staff Writer

By Benjamin Ball Staff Writer

In a letter Thursday to the Yale Law School community, Dean of Yale Law School Heather K. Gerken ’91 responded to reports that Amy Chua, a prominent Yale Law professor, advised students seeking clerkships with Brett Kavanaugh on their physical looks.

“The allegations being reported are of enormous concern to me and to the School,” Gerken wrote.

“While we cannot comment on individual complaints or investigations, the Law School and the University thoroughly investigate all complaints regarding violations of University rules and take no options off the table.”

The Guardian and the Huffington Post reported that Chua privately told a group of law students last year that it was “not an accident” that Kavanaugh’s female law clerks all “looked like models,” and that Chua was known for instructing female law students preparing for interviews with Kavanaugh on how to exude a “model-like” femininity, because doing so would help win a post in Kavanaugh’s chambers.

“I strongly encourage any members of our community who have been affected by misconduct to take advantage of Yale University’s resources for reporting incidents and receiving support,” Gerken wrote. “The Law School has a responsibility to provide a safe environment in which all of our students can live and learn in a community of mutual respect, free of harassment of any kind.”

Gerken declined to comment, deferring to her letter to the Yale Law School.

There is no allegation that the female students who worked for Kavanaugh were chosen because of their physical appearance or that they were not qualified, according to The Guardian.

Chua has since vehemently denied the reports, saying that instead she has always told her students to prepare well, dress professionally, and avoid inappropriate clothing.

“For the more than 10 years I’ve known him, Judge Kavanaugh’s first and only litmus test in hiring has been excellence,” Chua wrote

In Opinion

in an email statement to NBC News. “He hires only the most qualified clerks, and they have been diverse as well as exceptionally talented and capable.”

Chua is also known for her book “Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,” which describes her attempts to raise her two daughters to become highly driven and successful across many fronts, including classical music and academics.

Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, is currently facing allegations of sexual misconduct from Christine Blasey Ford, a psychology and statistics professor at Palo Alto University in California.

On Sunday, another woman, Deborah Ramirez, came forward with a second allegation of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh has denied that either incident occurred.

Gerken released a statement on Friday, responding to an open letter published from individual members of the Yale faculty advocating for the FBI to investigate the Kavanaugh allegations and demonstrating concern for what they believed to be a rush to judgement.

“As Dean of the Law School I have not and cannot take a position for or against a nominee,” Gerken wrote in her statement.

“It’s a thoughtful statement and I support the efforts of individual faculty members to engage with these important issues.”

Prior to the allegations, Gerken had expressed support for Kavanaugh, praising him for his work both as a justice and as a Yale faculty member.

“I have known Brett Kavanaugh for many years,” Gerken had told Yale Law School News. “I can personally attest that, in addition to his government and judicial service, Judge Kavanaugh has been a longtime friend to many of us in the Yale Law School community.

Ever since I joined the faculty, I have admired him for serving as a teacher and mentor to our students and for hiring a diverse set of clerks, in all respects, during his time on the court.”

Columnist Madeleine Marr argues that thinking of birth control as a binary obscures enduring, but unappreciated, obstacles that women face and and contributing columnist Noa Wollstein laments the structural inadequacy of McCosh Hall’s chairs.

PAGE 4

See MEMORIAL page 2

Lebanese minister speaks on Syrian refugees

By Benjamin Ball Staff Writer

In a talk given to the University community on Monday, Lebanon Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Gebran Bassil had stern words for the international community, repeatedly urging the return of Syrian refugees — 1.5 million of whom have taken residence in Lebanon.

“The international community should not point a finger to Lebanon,” Bassil said. “Rather, it should reward her, as being the best humanitarian model ever in history.”

Bassil spoke to an audience of students, faculty members, and some of his fellow Lebanese in Jones Hall 202 at 4 p.m. He discussed the crisis as well as the actions Lebanon means to take in the future.

Lebanon remains one of the nations most affected by the refugee crisis, with a total of 40 percent of its population consisting of either Syrian or Palestinian refugees.

See LEBANON page 2

IMAGE COURTESY OF WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Suchkov explained how the U.S. and Russia see Turkey differently.

Suchkov discusses Russia’s Middle East strategy

By Kris Hristov Contributor

Maxim Suchkov, a senior fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, spoke at the University on Tuesday about Russia’s actions and future plans for Syria and its policy for the Middle East as a whole.

Suchkov, who is also editor of Al-Monitor’s Russia and Mideast coverage, began with an introduction to Russia’s Syrian intervention. In Russian foreign policy circles, the Arab Spring,

Today on Campus 7:30 p.m.: Poet Li-Young Lee and Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Lynn Nottage read from their work to kick-off the 2018-19 Althea Ward Clark W’21 Reading Series.

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which began in the early 2010s, was seen as a repeat of the “color revolutions” which occurred in Czechoslovakia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and were aimed at democratization.

According to Suchkov, revolutions in the Middle East would be disastrous from the Russian standpoint because they see no defined “good” actors in the Middle East, simply choices between bad and worse.

“Russia sees an opportunity to fill space in the Middle East, not See RUSSIA page 2

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“The allegations are of enormous concern,” Gerken wrote.

The memorial included several readings and prayers from both the Qur’an and the Bible.

Bilal Mukadam ’19 read from Chapters 1 and 39 of the Qur’an, praising Allah and offering condolences to people who have lost loved ones. Sirad Hassan ’20 translated.

Jane Babij of the Christian Union and Casey Li ’19 read passages from Ecclesiastes and Lamentations, respectively, reminding listeners that even though human life is temporary, we should still have faith in God. “The loving memories that she left behind that we heard are memories that I hope will sustain us and will dry our tears

HIGH

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Wednesday September 26, 2018

Memorial included Qur’an, Bible readings MEMORIAL Continued from page 1

.............

and nurture our hearts,” Imam Sohaib Sultan, a close mentor to Abdillahi and a member of the Office of Religious Life, said.

Abdillahi’s friends reminisced about her constant joy and infectious laughter. They described her as a sweet, caring, and spontaneous person, always sensitive to the needs of others.

“She had a particular smile she would wear around campus no matter what she was doing,” Alexia Martinez ’20 said. “It didn’t matter who you were, how long you’d known her, or what you looked like. She had this unconditional love that I really admired.”

As an active member of Muslim Students Association, Princeton Faith and Action, Worship House, and a Muslim-Christian dialogue group, Abdillahi was known for her devotion to God across different religions.

She grew up in Roseville,

Minn., and graduated from Harding Senior High School in St. Paul, Minn. She is survived by her parents, sister, and three brothers.

At the end of the memorial, friends and students were given the opportunity to write to Abdillahi’s family and offer condolences.

She died after being struck by a train in Euless, Texas, between Fort Worth and Dallas. She was 20 years old.

According to friends and family she had been playing with cousins and accidentally encountered the moving train.

In a June 9 story, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that police said Abdillahi walked in front of the train for an unknown reason.

At the time, three local Texas police departments were unable to provide The Daily Princetonian with additional information about the details surrounding Abdillahi’s death, which police were investigating.

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Wednesday September 26, 2018

Bassil: Lebanon is best humanitarian model LEBANON Continued from page 1

.............

In Bassil’s view, the international community’s desire for a “political solution” in Syria would only mean a longer stay for the refugees, and the longer they stayed, in his view, the harder it would be for them to return. Bassil called for the international community to take a more active role in assisting in the refugees’ return.

Bassil also took questions from the audience. One audience member questioned Bassil and Lebanon’s empathy for the refugees, while Deborah Amos, journalism professor and NPR correspondent, questioned Bassil’s assertion that a great number of Syrian refugees in his country were economic migrants who could return to Syria if they chose.

Amos cited reports that the Syrian government was forcing those who returned to their country into mandatory military service, tapping their phones, and taking away property.

“One gets the sense that the Syrian government doesn’t want them back,” Amos said. “It’s not that Damascus has opened its arms to people who left, and most of them are not economic migrants, they have a fear of persecution under the 1951 refugee law. There’s a reason they left Syria.”

Bassil responded to the questions by reminding the audience that Lebanon was not a signatory to the United Nations 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees. He asserted that most of Syria was safe for the refugees to return.

“It is what we want in Lebanon, and surely we want the return of the Syrians,” Bassil said. “Whether it is in the interest of the Syrian government or not, it is their responsibility to accommodate for their own people.

Let’s put them on the test whether they want it or not.”

Bassil attributed the international community’s lack

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of action to three factors: the fear of more refugees coming to Europe and the United States, the desire to use refugees as a political card, and a “tacit policy” of causing demographic movement in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East. Bassil claimed that the primary actors responsible for the policy and the migration issue as a whole were the Islamic State and Israel, an accusation that caught a few audience members off guard.

“Parts [of the lecture] seemed really xenophobic to me — particularly at one point he went on quite the rant about Israel, which seemed a little unfair, if not rather off-topic,” said Jack Allen ’21.

Allen was also alarmed by Bassil’s assertion that much of Lebanon’s economic woes were a result of the Syrian refugees.

Bassil stated that over the last three years of refugee resettlement, the Lebanese had lost 250,000 jobs to the Syrians and unemployment had increased from 9 percent to 20 percent.

Bassil ultimately concluded that for the sake of the country’s economic future and continued security, the return of refugees back to Syria should be a top priority for Lebanon. He contrasted his own ideas with European policies, which he viewed as ultimately detrimental.

“The unlimited tolerance shown by some Europeans is threatening their identity, and thus their existence,” said Brasil. “Lebanon knows how to weigh and balance both identity and tolerance.

Therefore, the international and Arab communities should be responsible for the return.”

Bassil assumed the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants of the Republic of Lebanon on February 15, 2014. He was also elected to the Lebanese Parliament in May 2018 and currently heads the biggest parliamentary bloc, and has led the Free Patriotic Movement party since 2015.

wee dont maek mistake

page 3

Suchkov: Countries prioritize relations and arms sales with US RUSSIA

Continued from page 1

.............

to become the new sheriff, but to provide overseas balance.”

Russia’s military intervention in Syria began at the end of October 2015, with a sustained air campaign at the request of Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad.

Before the Russian intervention, the Syrian Army was in dire shape, having lost two-thirds of its manpower and most of its aircraft and tanks. Russian military support, both in the form of personnel and weapons, as well as training and rearmament drastically shifted the tide of the war in Assad and Putin’s favor.

While Russian bombings were condemned in the West, they served a vital role for the Russian defense and energy market, which was shut off from the West by sanctions after Russia’s annexation of Crimea put the country at odds with the United States and the European Union.

Suchkov summarized the success of Russia’s strategy thus far as being owed to its unique position in the Middle East. Russia is

not specifically tied to any state’s long-term interests, except perhaps those of Syria.

This means that Russia can cooperate with many partners at once, such as Israel, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. No other country has ever been able to maintain this type of diplomacy, Suchkov said.

“Countries will still usually prioritize relations and arms sales from the United States,” Suchkov added.

Russian-American relations have soured over a number of points, although military advisors from both countries are in constant contact to avoid incidents in Syrian airspace.

Nevertheless, Russian arms sales to the Middle East have made headlines and damaged U.S. relations, with the sale of advanced S-400 air defense systems to Turkey becoming a point of contention for U.S.-Turkey-Russia relations.

“For the United States, Turkey is an ally, not a partner. For Russia, it is a partner, not an ally,” Suchkov explained.

While many challenges still lie ahead, Russia is certainly in

a stronger position that it was five years ago, Suchkov said. Climate change, terrorism and other issues will continue to present challenges for the future. Just last week, a Russian IL-20 reconnaissance plane was accidentally shot down by Syrian air defense while Israeli fighter jets were in close proximity, causing tensions between all three countries.

“In Moscow, however, Russians debate whether or not there is a long-term strategy, or simply clear goals and a vision of the future of the Middle East,” Suchkov said.

This debate will allow Russia to adapt to future challenges in what will remain a key area in the globe for years to come.

The lecture, entitled “Russia in Syria: Opportunism or Strategy for the Long Game?”, was cosponsored by the Program in Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies; the Program in Near Eastern Studies; and the Institute for the Transregional Study of Contemporary Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia. It was held at 4:30 p.m. in the Louis A. Simpson International Building.

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Opinion

Wednesday September 26, 2018

page 4

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Out of (birth) control Madeleine Marr

Contributing Columnist

L

egal and accessible birth control has

been a perennial topic of debate between the feminist movement and its opponents.

Reproductive health access is often treated as a binary — you either can access it, or you can’t. In reality, each woman’s experience navigating an insurance and medical system that demonstrates anywhere from casual disregard to active hatred of women falls along a dramatic spectrum. In some cases, access is circumstantial, stressful, or unduly expensive. Yet, this variation in birth control accessibility is ignored in most discussions of women’s reproductive rights.

I have experienced the effects of this system myself. Every month when I go to the CVS in Princeton to pick up my birth control, I face obstacles I never experience when

picking up antibiotics. I have had to return to the pharmacy upwards of six times over the course of a week, call multiple pharmacies across the country, and negotiate with my OB-GYN about getting my prescription filled and sent to the right location.

Twice this year alone, I have had my brand of birth control pill be “backordered for a year” or even switched from brand names to different generic pills. I received no information from the pharmacist about how to safely switch, even though some doctors warn that switching birth control pills can have adverse side effects due to the different ways women metabolize drugs. Even basic suggestions, such as taking the full placebo week before switching brands, are often left out by rushed pharmacists. Birth control pills have long-term effects on the hormones in a woman’s body, which suggests that services should be more aware and considerate of women trying to fill their prescriptions every month.

In his Senate confir-

mation interview, Brett Kavanaugh, the current nominee for the Supreme Court, referred to the birth control pill as an “abortion-inducing drug.”

In context, this phrase suggests that he believes mandating birth control coverage in health insurance plans infringes on religious freedom. Kavanaugh would likely support arguments that restrict birth control access if he sits on the Supreme Court bench.

This political climate has instilled the fear in many women that they will no longer be able to reliably access birth control.

Already, however, there is an unacknowledged spectrum of access to the pill that leaves many women battling to obtain a prescription every month.

After a woman was denied miscarriage medication at a Walgreens, it was revealed that some states allow pharmacists to deny prescriptions over moral or religious concerns. In more rural areas where there is potentially only one locallyowned pharmacy, accessing birth control can be

vol. cxlii

fraught with the fear of social judgment or denial. The stigma associated with birth control, which sometimes is associated with “slutty” behavior, leads some young women to go to great lengths to secretly obtain a prescription.

These various layers of judgment, financial burden, and legislative roadblock point to a subtle war waged against contraceptive access that goes beyond a blanket denial of the pill. Many women lose time, money, and mental or physical energy trying to get a contraceptive that has been entirely legal for decades. The burden placed on women across the country when they attempt to control their reproductive lives is reprehensible, and we must face the reality that all women are fighting daily — not for a gun, not even for an abortion, but for a tiny, legal pill.

Madeleine Marr is a sophomore from Newtown Square, Pa. She can be reached at mmarr@princeton.edu.

Butt battle in McCosh Hall

editor-in-chief

Marcia Brown ’19 business manager

Ryan Gizzie ’19

BOARD OF TRUSTEES president Thomas E. Weber ’89 vice president Craig Bloom ’88 secretary Betsy L. Minkin ’77 treasurer Douglas J. Widmann ’90 Kathleen Crown William R. Elfers ’71 Stephen Fuzesi ’00 Zachary A. Goldfarb ’05 John Horan ’74 Joshua Katz Kathleen Kiely ’77 Rick Klein ’98 James T. MacGregor ’66 Alexia Quadrani Marcelo Rochabrun ’15 Richard W. Thaler, Jr. ’73 Lisa Belkin ‘82 Francesca Barber trustees emeriti Gregory L. Diskant ’70 Jerry Raymond ’73 Michael E. Seger ’71 Annalyn Swan ’73

142ND MANAGING BOARD managing editors Isabel Hsu ’19 Sam Parsons ’19 head news editor Claire Thornton ’19 associate news editors Allie Spensley ’20 Audrey Spensley ’20 Ariel Chen ’20 Ivy Truong ’21 associate news and film editor Sarah Warman Hirschfield ’20 head opinion editor Emily Erdos ’19 associate opinion editors Jon Ort ’21 Cy Watsky ’21 head sports editors David Xin ’19 Chris Murphy ’20 associate sports editors Miranda Hasty ’19 Jack Graham ’20 associate street editors Danielle Hoffman ’20 Lyric Perot ’20 digital operations manager Sarah Bowen ’20 chief copy editors Marina Latif ’19 Arthur Mateos ’19 Catherine Benedict ’20 head design editor Rachel Brill ’19 cartoons editor Tashi Treadway ’19 head photo editor Risa Gelles-Watnick ’21

NIGHT STAFF

Noa Wollstein

Contributing Columnist

W

hether it’s

the chairs or my behind, one of them needs to go. Twice a week I sit in McCosh Hall 28 and attempt to listen to an ostensibly fascinating lecture, but inevitably I spend the hour fidgeting in discomfort.

I hunt desperately for something soft to sit on: a jacket, a scarf, a binder, another person, anything! In warmer months, I often forget to bring sufficient protection and end up perching on my laptop case.

To be candid, my backside is flat and ill-padded.

Last year, a friend caught me singing along to “Cake” by Rihanna, a song more focused on shapely rear ends than traditional dessert, and she chided, “Sweetie, that song isn’t for you.” I replaced the

word “cake” with the word “pancake,” and she nodded gravely, satisfied with the veracity of my new rendition.

I endeavored to rectify the situation by doing squats, but I found them so miserable that I ultimately opted to embrace my bony, shapeless caboose as it is. A stride forward in body positivity, perhaps, but a debilitating blow in the crusade against insufficient lecture accommodations.

Clearly, I am not guiltless in this cataclysmic confrontation between sitting bones and McCosh chairs. Yet, though many of my ampler readers may laugh at my soreness, blaming my aches solely on my deficient posterior, I assure you it is not all my fault!

McCosh Hall, ringing in at one-hundred-and-eleven years old, is an architectural gem on campus.

With high gothic arch-

ways, flying buttresses, and expansive windows, it stands out as a tourist attraction and integral component of Princeton’s facade. It houses most of the English department and looks like a fitting home for those who love to read, contemplate the complexities of life, and bask in the beauty of the world.

Yet, despite the building’s aesthetic success, the structure, like many products of the early twentieth century, is categorically flawed. Just as the Titanic had its unfortunate run in with the iceberg, the steam-powered car receded into obscurity, and radium water was removed from the medical lexicon, the chairs in McCosh Hall must go. They are tragically misguided remnants of a past era hurdling towards extinction.

Sure, the chairs are pretty, with their carved dark wood and wrought

metal handles secured to small desks so dainty that one can barely fit an agenda, let alone a laptop, on top of it. They stand in rows, nailed to the floor, austere and in perfect harmony with the construction surrounding them.

But, lovely as they look, the wood is just plain hard and sitting on it for more than ten minutes just plain hurts. To remedy the situation, I propose furnishing these seats with some tasteful, supportive liners. Whether tied onto the chairs, casually placed upon them, or drilled into the seats themselves, I have no preference. Any cushion will do so long as it is soft and comfortable.

With only this small effort, both the hall’s artistic integrity and the wellbeing of the members of the student population, who lack their own personal padding, will be preserved.

This charge may be

copy Kaitlyn Bolin ’21

minute, and the University undoubtedly has better things upon which to spend its money than some measly chair covers, but it is nonetheless a widespread and consistent irritation meriting redress. So, for my own sake and for that of my scantily-buttocked brethren, I publicly submit this complaint, hoping that the fates of the students will prevail over those of the tortuous wooden seats. If this request is rejected or ignored, I do solemnly pledge to give squats another try.

Noa Wollstein is at a sophomore from Plainview, N.Y. She can be reached at noaw@princeton.edu.

Wednesday September 26, 2018

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page 5

Conspiracy

Tashi Treadway ’19 ..................................................

Personality Survey:

1) During lecture you are... a) asking the professor questions. b) doodling all over your notes. c) correcting grammar mistakes. d) watching videos on youtube.com e) calculating the opportunity cost of sitting in lecture.

2) Your favorite hidden pasttime is... a) getting the scoop on your roommate’s relationships. b) stalking people’s Facebook pictures. c) finding dangling modifiers in your readings. d) managing your blog. e) lurking outside 48 University Place.

3) The first thing that you noticed was... a) the word “survey.” b) the logo set in the background. c) the extra “t” in “pasttime.” d) the o’s and i’s that look like binary code from far away. e) the fact that this is a super-cool ad for The Daily Princetonian.

If you answered mostly “a,” you are a reporter in the making!

If you answered mostly “b,” you are a design connoisseur, with unlimited photography talents!

If you answered mostly “c,” you are anal enough to be a copy editor!

If you answered mostly “d,” you are a multimedia and web designing whiz!

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Sports

Wednesday September 26, 2018

page 6

{ www.dailyprincetonian.com } BEYOND THE NUMBERS

How win probability is really calculated

By Chris Murphy Head Sports Editor

The Daily Princetonian Sports is excited to announce a new article series, “Beyond the Numbers.” This series will take in-depth looks at various topics related to sports analytics and sports science. In the first installment of this series, we investigate what goes into determining in-game winning percentage — or win probability — and what we can do to make it more accurate.

Think back to the last time your favorite team blew a lead in a game.

Maybe it was a college basketball team looking to stage a massive upset in March Madness, only to give up the lead in the final minutes of the game.

Maybe it was a baseball team that had a three-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth, only to lose in extra innings. Or maybe you’re a Warriors or Falcons fan and know all too well what it means to blow a lead.

Regardless of the situation, chances are when you watched the game live or looked back at the recaps, you read or saw or heard something like “This is incredible; soand-so team had a so-andso percent chance of winning this game, and still lost!” With greater public interest in analytics and the data behind it, these stats are becoming much more commonplace. The Falcons at one point had a 99.7 percent chance to win Super Bowl LI before Brady and company made a roaring comeback. In 2001, the Cleveland Indians overcame a 12-run deficit to beat Seattle, who had a 99.89 percent chance to win the game and then a 98.1 percent chance to win in the bottom of the ninth! Just this past weekend, the Oregon Ducks had over a 99 percent chance to win their game against Stanford — twice — before losing in overtime.

And while not every game turns out this way, there are nonetheless many examples where teams with an almost certain chance at winning wind up losing the game.

Call it a repeated miracle, but one has to wonder whether or not these probabilities are actually accurate; are we truly that lucky to be witnessing these 0.01 percent chance events once every few weeks? Or is something fundamentally wrong with how we approach win probability? And what even is win probability anyway? Here’s your chance to find out.

Determination of win probability — A “general” formula for how to win Win probability is calculated differently depending on which sport is being considered. However, there are a few similar characteristics in every sport’s determination of the metric. Across sports,

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win probability comprises three general criteria: score of the game, time left in the game, and the winning team’s “big play prevention” defense.

The relevance of the score of the game in determining win probability should be obvious. If a team is up big, chances are that that team is going to win the game. However, this doesn’t tell the whole story. Namely, this leaves the definition of a “big lead” ambiguous. In every sport, a “big lead” is different. Conventionally, sports media and the general public will treat a two-score lead in any sport as “safe”; the chances of a team’s losing becomes exponentially smaller once they are up two scores. However, the significance of two scores varies depending on the sport. For example, avid soccer fans will argue that a two-goal lead is almost insurmountable, while baseball fans will be less than comfortable if their team is only up two runs. Similarly, two touchdowns in the NFL is a much “safer” lead than two touchdowns in NCAA football, where scoring is much more prevalent. Determining a “safe lead” is hard to do by itself, which is why the introduction of other variables is necessary.

That brings up the next variable: time left in the game. Time is the most important factor in determining win probability because it is the only finite variable with a definite endpoint. It is impossible for an NBA team to take the lead and win in the fifth quarter, just like an MLB team can’t take the lead in the 10th if they’re losing after the ninth. Generally, win probability updates significantly at checkpoints in a game such as the end of a quarter, halftime, or the change of an inning.

In between stoppages, win probability is much less accurate because the result of the current possession is unknown; this is especially true in

football where drives can last anywhere between a few seconds and over 10 minutes. Win probability also likes to pick teams that have the lead going into the latter half of the game, which is unsurprising. For example, in the first 48 games of this NFL season, only 14 teams won the game after being tied or trailing to start the second half. To put it another way, over 70 percent of all games were “won” before the second half began.

Of course, this doesn’t take into account teams that gave up the lead and took it back, but nevertheless win probability is strongly determined by who is winning at critical junctures of the game.

The exception is baseball, and this is because of the uncertainty of relief pitchers. For baseball, win probabilities tend to hover around 60–70 percent for a team up by three or fewer runs, until the end of the seventh inning, after which those numbers then skyrocket to over 85 percent. As more game uncertainty is erased with passing time, the team that is going to win becomes much clearer.

The final — and perhaps most interesting — component of win probability is a team’s ability on defense to prevent the big play. A “big play” is characterized best as one that gives another team a significant advantage to score against the defense.

For baseball, this could be any non-single hit. For football, any play over 20 yards is usually considered a big play. For soccer and hockey, big plays come in the form of penalty plays (power plays, free kicks and penalty shots). This should come as no surprise, as it makes sense that big plays lead to blown leads or comebacks. What is surprising, however, is how little win probability takes into account the performance of the team trying to come back. Rather, all of the emphasis is placed on the defense trying to keep the other team from coming

back.

For example, last season the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers both had games against the Cleveland Cavaliers in which they led by six points at halftime. Despite Portland’s being a significantly better team than LA, the Blazers had just a 0.2 percent higher win probability than the Lakers in that game. In contrast, the Cavaliers had two games where they were up by two points going into halftime, one against Chicago and the other against Miami. In the Chicago game, they had a win probability more than 5 percent higher than they did in the Miami game! The metric was not based on Chicago or Miami and the ability of each to make a comeback; rather, it was based on the Cavaliers’ ability to hold each of those teams to fewer points. The Cavaliers’ fast-break system played well against the Bulls half-court system, and hence they were much more likely to beat the Bulls than the Heat.

Not included — Momentum, immeasurables, and how to improve the metric With the three above variables making up the bulk of win probability calculation, there are clearly many stats left out.

Some of these stats that are addressed below significantly impact our perception of the game, yet do not seem to make their way into win probability.

The first that comes to mind is momentum.

We’ve all seen a team that has struggled to score runs finally bust open the game after getting their first player across the plate. We’ve all seen a hockey team that finds new life after scoring the first goal in a twogoal deficit. Whether we can measure it or not, few would deny the existence of momentum in every sport. Momentum can be the driver behind a 12–2 run in basketball, or a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback, or even a

come-from-behind win.

Yet it is next to impossible to measure and will probably continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Momentum is a phenomenon that we all know to exist, yet cannot seem to quantify.

Win probability — because of its inability to measure momentum — is very unresponsive to shifts in the tone of a game. As far as win probability is concerned, every score is the same. There are no emotional pickme-ups, nor are there statement plays. Hence, win probability becomes much more uncertain in the face of a huge momentum swing. Oftentimes, this is where we see the biggest comebacks happen; we all know that feeling when our team scores late in the game and it just “feels” like they are going to win. Yet win probability will tell you there’s still only a 15 percent chance your team wins. Is there a way to correct this? Probably not, simply because momentum will almost certainly never be measurable.

The other factor is home field advantage. People tend to think that a team down at home faces a better chance of making a comeback than a team on the road. Surprisingly, however, the opposite seems to be true; in the past year of competitive sports, more than 62 percent of all comebacks came from teams on the road, according to analysis by ‘Prince’ Sports. Win probability seems not to care whether a team is at home or on the road. Maybe disregarding location is the best approach, but there are certainly some risks in not factoring in home field advantage.

Going back to the third variable of win probability, it is much easier for a team to play defense in an environment they know well. Whether it is their familiarity with the friendly confines of a dome in football or the dimensions of an outfield, the home team seems like it would have an advantage in preserving the lead. Why do the stats say otherwise? That remains a mystery and perhaps a story for another day.

What should now be less of a mystery is the basis behind the win probability metric. While interesting in its design, it is actually quite a simple method that allows sports analysts to track a team’s potential for success. And while the metric’s ability to tentatively predict the future is remarkable, perhaps the most interesting part of the metric is its failures. When outcomes like Super Bowl LI and the 2016 Finals happen, and we get to see how unlikely these outcomes were in light of the data, they become that much more exhilarating and unforgettable.

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