11th august ,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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August 11,2015

Vol 5.Issue XIII

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Brazil Rice Stocks Decline Slightly to 124,785 Tons in July 2015 Aug 10, 2015

Brazil rice stocks stood at around 124,785 tons in July 2015, slightly down from around 127,970 tons in June 2015 and down about 77% from around 539,731 tons in July 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.

According to Conab, rice stocks with the Selling Option Contract of Agricultural Products (OPCAO) declined slightly to around 72,558 tons from last month's level of around 75,732 tons.

Rice stocks with the Federal Government Acquisition (AGF) remained at last month's level of 52,213 tons. They were down about 78% and 75% respectively from their year ago levels. Rice stocks with farmers (Agricultural Familiar) stood at around 14 tons in July 2015, down 44% from around 25 tons in June 2015 and down about 98% from around 841 tons in July 2014.

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In June 2015, Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.544 million tons (around 8.53 million tons, basis milled), up about 3.5% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly up from its May forecast of around 12.399 million tons.

Guinea's Ability to Import Rice Impacted by Ebola Outbreak, Says FAO Aug 10, 2015

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) forecasts Guinea's 2015 rice import requirements at around 320,000 tons. The FAO says Guinea's commercial rice imports have been stable at around 300,000 tons since 2013. The UN agency says the government needs additional resources and international assistance to fulfil the import of remaining 20,000 tons.

The FAO reports that the country's significant impact of Ebola on export earnings last year (2014) has compromised the country's ability to import more rice.

The UN agency says trade flows have improved over last year as all neighboring countries, including Senegal, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau, which closed borders with Guinea, have reopened their borders.

The FAO forecasts Guinea's 2015 paddy rice production at around 2 million tons, up about 2% from around 1.97 million tons in 2014. Planting of rice is on the verge of conclusion. Favorable weather conditions in most of the regions has reportedly supported planting operations.

Price of local and imported rice remained almost stable in recent months, according to the FAO.

FAO Estimates Liberia 2015 Rice Import Needs at 350,000 Tons Aug 10, 2015

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates Liberia's 2015 rice import needs at around 350,000 tons. However, the rice import requirement is above the normal rice import volume. But since the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has severely impacted the country's export earnings, it is not in a position to spend for the extra imports. Therefore, the FAO expects Liberia to seek international assistance to finance the new imports.

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The FAO says planting for the 2015 paddy crop is almost complete. Timely and well-spread rains since the beginning of the cropping season have reportedly supported sowing activities and satisfactory crop development.

EVD, which lowered Liberia's milled rice production by about 12% y/y in 2014, has been largely controlled and the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Liberia as Ebola-free on May 9, 2015. Therefore the, FAO is expecting rice production to improve in 2015.

Prices of local and imported rice have remained mostly stable in recent months, according to the FAO.

Cambodia Rice Exports Increase Sharply in First Seven Months of 2015 Aug 10, 2015

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Cambodia has exported around 312,317 tons of milled rice in the first seven months of 2015, up about 53% from around 204,128 tons exported during the same period last year, Khmer Times quoted data from the Secretariat of One Window Service for Rice Export Formality.About 72 Cambodian rice exporters shipped milled rice to about 53 countries, including 26 European Union (EU) nations (193,903 tons); ASEAN member countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore (34,099 tons); and to other countries and regions such as China, Hong Kong, Australia, the U.S., Taiwan, and Canada (84,315 tons).

In July 2015, Cambodia exported around 28,492 tons of milled rice, up about 28% from around 22,259 tons in June 2015.

The government of Cambodia aimed to increase rice exports to one million tons in 2015 but noted that that it is unlikely to achieve the target due to inadequate milling facilities and infrastructure as well as lack of access to funding.USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1 million tons in 2014.

Bulog Chief Rules Out Rice Imports in 2015 Aug 10, 2015

Indonesia is unlikely to import any rice in 2015, Reuters quoted the Chief of state logistics agency Bulog as saying.The agency's President Director told reporters that Bulog currently has 1.5 million tons of rice. He added that the agency purchased about 1.85 million tons of rice from domestic suppliers in 2015. The procured quantity of rice is reportedly lower than the targeted 4 million tons.The Bulog Chief noted that delays in this year's rice planting operations due to drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern may prompt the government to import rice in early 2016.

The government of Indonesia is planning to increase 2015 paddy rice output by about 7% to around 75.2 million tons from around 70 million tons in 2014. The Agriculture Minister noted that the government is taking all measures to achieve the desired output and imports would be the last option.However, Bollmberg quoted the Trade Minister as saying that the government would assess impact of drought on food production, including rice, before deciding on imports.

The Agriculture Minister added that the government would work with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) and military to create artificial rain in some rice growing regions such as Java and southern Sumatra. He noted that the government has already distributed 21,000 water pumps and fixed irrigation system for 1.3 million hectares of farm land. He confirmed that drought had damaged rice harvest in 20,000 hectares while 76% of the 2015 crop harvest is

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complete so far. He also reiterated that his Ministry would monitor weather impact during the harvest time from September to December.

USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September). Some analysts are forecasting imports to reach about 1.6 million tons.

Asia Rice Quotes Mostly Unchanged Today Aug 10, 2015

Myanmar rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $405-$415 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

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Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

China Agrees to Buy One Million Tons of Rice from Thailand under G2G Deal, Says Thai Commerce Ministry Aug 10, 2015

China has agreed to buy one million tons of rice from Thailand under a government-togovernment (G2G) deal before this year-end, Reuters quoted the Thai Commerce Ministry sources. The Thai Commerce Minister, who visited China last week, told reporters that China would buy the rice at market prices and th sale would involve Thai 5% broken rice, Thai jasmine rice and Thai Hom Mali rice.

He also noted that the sale is part of a December 2014 memorandum of understanding (MoU) (that China signed with Thailand in December 2014) to buy 2 million tons of rice this year. He added that negotiations for the sale of remaining one million tons of rice would begin this September.The development is a good news to the Thai military government, which still holds over 14.5 million tons of rice in its stockpiles.

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The Minister also said that a team of government officials would travel to Iran at the end of August to persuade Iran to buy Thai rice. "Iran has expressed interest in buying rice at the end of August," he was quoted.

Meanwhile, the government spokesperson told local sources that Thailand would remain the world's top rice exporter in 2015 in terms of tonnage and value despite a general decline in global economic growth. He expressed optimism that Thai rice exports would surge in the second half of 2015 on concerns of a decline in production in several countries due to persisting drought conditions. He noted that Thailand exported around 4.46 million tons of rice in the first six months of 2015, while India exported around 4.26 million tons during the same period.

Global Rice Quotes August 11th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

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Page 9 of 13 Thailand 100% B grade 375-385

↔

Vietnam 5% broken

340-350

↔

India 5% broken

385-395

↔

Pakistan 5% broken

340-350

↔

Myanmar 5% broken

405-415

↔

Cambodia 5% broken

425-435

↔

U.S. 4% broken 470-480

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Uruguay 5% broken

535-545

↔

Argentina 5% broken

530-540

↔

Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken

350-360

↔

Vietnam 25% broken

325-335

↔

Pakistan 25% broken

310-320

↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420

↔

India 25% broken

345-355

↓

U.S. 15% broken

445-455

↔

Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

375-385

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

↔

415-425

↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385

↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

555-565

↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

545-555

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Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

↔

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Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 855-865

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Vietnam Jasmine

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485-495

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

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Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

↔

Cambodia Phka Mails

835-845

↔

320-320

↔

Vietnam 100% broken 310-320

↔

Brokens Thailand A1 Super

Pakistan 100% broken stxd Cambodia A1 Super

280-290

350-360

↔

India 100% broken stxd 305-315

↔

Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

↔

U.S. pet food

↔

325-335

Brazil half grain NQ

↔

↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Myanmar May Consider Rice Imports In Case of Severe Weather Conditions, Say MRF Officials Aug 10, 2015

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Myanmar is likely to import rice in case unexpectedly severe weather conditions in the coming months, local sources quoted the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) officials.Recent floods in the northern Myanmar have led to concerns of a decline in production as well as an increase in prices. Last week, MRF had decided to suspend rice exports until September 15, 2015, when harvested rice from the on-going crop is expected to reach markets, in order to ensure sufficient stocks and control price hikes in the country.The MRF President told local sources that the current stocks are adequate and will be replenished in September after the harvest. “To stop an increase in the rice price, we have decided to halt exports and have begun selling rice bags directly to the flooded area,� he was quoted. He added that the government would import rice in case of unexpectedly severe weather conditions in the coming months.

Of the 16 million acres (around 2.56 million hectares) planted in the northern regions, around 1.5 million acres (around 240,000 hectares) of rice area has been affected, according to the MRF officials. The MRF Secretary noted that around 200,000 acres (around 32,000 hectares) is beyond recovery.

Domestic rice prices have increased significantly in flood-affected areas. Prices have increased to almost K100,000 per a bag of 108 pounds (around $1,638 per ton). According to the UN'S

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Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, average domestic rice prices in the country were in the range of K420,000 per ton (around $390) in the beginning of August.

The MRF has reportedly opened wholesale counters in the flood-affected areas as part of efforts to control price hikes.Myanmar is a net exporter of rice and its exports have been increasing consistently for the past few years. Myanmar exported around 1.8 million tons of rice in 2014.

The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96 million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to export around 2 million tons of rice this year after exporting about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15.USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.8 million tons, milled basis) and export around 2.2 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (January - December 2015).

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally on Support from Sharply Higher Grains Aug 10, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 43 cent per cwt (about $9 per ton) higher at $11.860 per cwt (about $261 per ton). The other grains rallied as well today; Soybeans closed about 3.2% higher at $9.9425 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.9% higher at $5.2525 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 4.5% higher at $4.0100 per bushel.

U.S. stocks rallied more than 1% on Monday, rebounding from sharp declines last week, as oil's rise from multi-month lows and a Warren Buffett acquisition boosted sentiment. Mostly disappointing data out of China initially weighed on oil prices. Chinese exports fell 8.3% in July, their largest decline in 4 months, while the regional producer price index fell more than expected. The Shanghai composite surged nearly 5% to a two-week high amid hopes of further stimulus and corporate restructuring in key sectors.

The Hang Seng closed mildly lower. Investors also focused on remarks by Federal Reserve members for further indications on the timing of a rate hike. Economic conditions in the United States have largely returned to normal and a Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates should come soon, the Atlanta Fed's Dennis Lockhart said in a Reuters report Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 234 points, or 1.35%, at 17,607. The S&P 500 traded up 26 points, or 1.23%, at 2,103, with energy leading nine sectors higher and utilities the only laggard.

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The Nasdaq traded up 60 points, or 1.21%, at 5,104. Gold is trading about 0.9% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% lower about 1:15pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 468 contracts traded, down from 2,157 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday decreased by 52 contracts to 9,980.

Vietnam Exports 3.301 Million Tons of Rice in First Seven Months of 2015 Aug 10, 2015

Vietnam exported around 3.301 million tons of rice in first seven months of calendar year 2015, down about 9% from about 3.631 million tons of rice exported during same time last year, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $414 per ton (FOB), down about 4% per ton from about $431 per ton recorded during same last year.

In July 2015, Vietnam exported around 589,323 tons of rice, down about 4% from about 615,844 tons rice exported in July 2014, and down about 7% from around 632,010 tons rice exported in June 2015. Average export prices in July 2015 stands at around $400 per ton, down about 7% from a year ago, and down about 1.5% per ton from a month ago.

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